Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys! - Over

[AGar]

What are you talking about? When did I mention anything about CP specifically?

When in your VCA he became green.

Like when the mod edited my post without me knowing and made them green? That thing that wasn't my fault? Go look again.

AGar. Come on, now.

Gah really. WTF.

Seriously, that's bogus.

[Oso]

Alrighty then Oso. Let's go.

I didn't go back to get confirmation he was the traitor, the dead post does that.

???

I'm not saying you needed confirmation he was a Mafia traitor. I'm saying your theory that Parama's OMGUS acronym was a "subtle," "elegant" and "frigin' brilliant" clue that he was traitor MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE because Parama made actual signals in ISO #4:
---
[ISOs]
---
Given all of this evidence, how could you POSSIBLY decide that Parama's OMGUS acronym meant something, and ignore all of these bread crumbs???????? Why make something up out of thin air when the evidence is right before you?

Simple, I have trouble with the obvious in case you haven't noticed it yet this game. "Can't see the forest because of all them damn trees around." is a criticism I have had directed at me more than once in my life.

I thought those ISOs were Parama being Parama which leads right into your next point:

Pre-Parama flip. I was thinking he was town.

..
Only Parama has what I would call an "Oh shit" moment about the Cecily lynch when he answers your point:

#20: Declares Cecily to be scum and Twisted to be town, this eventually leads to Cecily's death (-1)
town can be wrong. I still stand by the theory that Cecily was an antimiller, personally.

It's a small moment but it is there. That is why he is in top group of my list rather than the middle or bottom groups. That and his play in this game isn't saying 'scum' to me.
..

For reference my "Top Group" was Prob Town. It had AGar, TS and Parama in it.

Post Parama flip: My thoughts,

"Shit, I didn't see that coming."

I had thought his erratic voting was indicative of the only playstyle I had seen from him up to that point. He was town in that game. Faced with a scum flip, I had reverse that and think

"...ok, so he does the same things as scum too."

So I did not think Parama was scum pre-flip. I didn't even consider that he was anything but meta-neutral in his playstyle post flip until DH said that maybe his being erratic wasn't erratic at all. That is part of what prompted the re-read of Parama. Him and CP both saying telling to me to calm down a bit and start thinking again was the other part.

As to knowledge of him knowing 100% the team lay out re:who is town and who is scum? The Wiki: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Traitor. RBT I think it was, mentioned it earlyish in the game as well.

I don't care what you think. I do care that the rest of the players understand why and how I went from no previously voiced suspicion at all to certain scum.

As to the speculation being a scum-slip? I'll throw some of your tactics back at you? Why would I, as scum, point out that we deliberately killed our traitor knowing he was traitor when AGar, in the first post of the day, states that he thinks town is in a good position.

You asked me earlier what reason I could possible put forth that would explain it. That's it. Kill the traitor, get the town complacent, say "Man we got it whipped now...". The short answer is that I wouldn't even introduce that if I knew that Parama had been deliberately killed, I'd have agreed wholeheartedly with AGar.

That's why I finally came to the conclusion it was a mistake that Parama was killed rather than deliberate. A kill of a townie last night puts us in lylo today. 4:3. So the initial shock of having Parama, a player I'd have thought would be a good player for an early recruitment attempt, show up dead immediately triggered a 'knee-jerk' "No way in hell that happened by accident" response.

It was a mistake because the person he tried to tell (you Sundy), didn't pick up on it or something interfered with recruitment, and you killed him by mistake.

[Oso]

Double Post.

I would like to take this time to point out to everyone that in Post-574 Sundy questions my methods, thinking and my motives but doesn't address my main point.

That Parama is talking directly to Sundy here:

I didn't even call you scum, since Akira is scum, and you're only scum if he isn't, though you *could* be if he is, but Cecily _is_ scum if Akira is scum so.

Agree or disagree with my thinking process all you want or my methods for reaching my conclusions but there is no disputing the fact that it led me to that post.

Now knowing that Parama is the traitor, anyone else want to give an explanation for that post other than Parama trying to tell Sundy something?

[Sundy]

How are you evil, Oso? Let me count the ways.

1. Oso saying scum killed traitor on purpose
2. Hey, remember when Parama saved Oso by deflecting the wagon onto Twisted?
3. Communication between Parama and Oso?
4. Defeatism
5. Loves to think like scum
6. Tries to claim that Twisted's alignment means he's innocent
7. Forgot about (inferior) Bub case

I don't think it's all plausible that scum intentionally killed off the traitor, and I thought it very bizarre when Oso claimed as much in a p-edit. I doubt he'd have had to back himself into a corner with posts like these if he hadn't included that p-edit. In my mind this is part of a larger pattern of thinking like scum.* (Look for the * for more thinking like scum.)

When I asked him where he came up with this crazy idea, he said he'd go do some research on how this could possibly occur:

In addition to getting a much longer post together at the moment, I'm also looking for actions that I would expect to see if Parama was intentionally NKed and they knew he was the traitor. Not finding anything worth bringing out except as an 'in case' scenario. 'In case' we flip scum today or tomorrow and the game doesn't end.

But all he comes up with is that Mafia wanted to lull town into complacency and so they killed one of their own. Now if someone can find ONE SINGLE EXAMPLE of that tactic happening on these forums, let me know. But I'd wager it's never happened, and personally I don't think any town-aligned player would come up with that theory, and--after being pressured on it--Oso now seems to have abandoned it.

NOW: THERE IS ONE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT CONCLUSION FROM THIS ANALYSIS. It is this: that

Parama was never successfully recruited

(unless there's another killer at work). Please keep this in mind for the future.

It's been correctly pointed out by many that looking at Parama is a helpful thing for town to do. I completely agree, but I think players are being far too quick to make something of his scum reads etc., even though in the third post of the game, he made it CLEAR that he KNEW would be analyzed after dying. So it is probably in town's best interest to realize that it's gonna be SUPER TRICKY to sort out the WIFOM!!

However, there is one interesting thing to note about Parama's behavior: When Oso was at the height of his pressure, Twisted unvoted. Less than 10 posts later, Parama was starting a Twisted wagon. This builds up and up, we all know what happened, and then the pressure's off of Twisted. And instantly Oso decides that he's "unpressurized enough to go on," even though none of the arguments against him had been answered. And I know he's busy with work, but too bad he couldn't step in to defend Twisted during that whole process.

Now, let's take a closer look at Parama's actual vote of Twisted:

Twisted knows Oso won't flip scum, because Twisted's the mafia traitor.
And he wants to chain lynches to ensure a scum victory. Since he knows Oso is town, the second statement is there so he can push AGar tomorrow for a "valid" reason.

And the day before Parama's vote, Oso had this to say:

We still have an unknown number of scum out there but there is at least one more mafia and the traitor.

Say the recruitment of Parama didn't go through the first day (a possibility Oso goes AT LENGTH to disprove in his posts). Say Oso knows this because he is scum. Day 2, scum try someone else-- it doesn't work. On Day 3, Oso says the traitor is still out there, and Parama responds with a vote on Twisted that mentions the mafia traitor. He says that Twisted is the traitor because he "knows" Oso won't flip scum. What if Parama is the traitor, deflecting blame from Oso, and then pointing out AGAIN that he's the traitor, because he "knows" Oso IS scum??

Again this is all SPECULATION, but I don't know as it's any different from Oso's speculation right #577. It seems like a lot stronger case to me that this interaction is a signal, because it's the FIRST time Parama mentions the traitor since his flurry of posts in the beginning of the game, and it's explicitly saying that Twisted is the traitor because Oso is innocent i.e. Twisted is not the traitor because Oso is scum because Parama is the traitor. QED.

VOTE: Oso

*Add to this was the defeatist attitude that he had while the pressure was building on him, looks like a guilty conscience to me:
"I know you've blown the call on me but ,eh, trying to convince you of that is probably not going to work."
"This probably seals my lynch."
"To answer any doubts about my stance on any of the players at the moment"

*And in general there are lots of examples of him thinking from a scummy mindset and sharing that with the class, and posts like these:

Look at the state of the game at that point and put yourself back in that day, take the Akira/Cecily flips out of your mind. If she gets any more flustered, there is a good chance the Akira wagon could transfer over to her. A town flip of Cecily strengthens any defense Akira gives the next day. Failing that, since Akira probably is going to be lynched at that point, Bub isn't the real driving force behind the lynch at that point. Parama is. Any accusations of "too easy, that must have been a bus" fall on Parama and perhaps DH as the wagon starter, but not on Bub, he has insured that he prominent at casting suspicions at Akira but he hasn't voted Akira, he is being courteous to Parama by 'holding off'.

*Or the time that he said Twisted being a confirmed townie means that he's a confirmed townie. When Twisted responded by saying "WTF are you talking about, I'm still suspicious of you" (I'm paraphrasing), he says:

The second we get a town flip on either you or me, the other becomes almost unlynchable.

Not to mention that his gigantic Bub suspicion (which he'd already forgot about once when he decided to go after DH), he's now dropped again in favor of a case on me.

OH, and about his Bub case. The main reason it was so much weaker than Bub's case on him (and Oso really picked up the Bub case only after Bub started accusing him, very OMGUS) is that he singled out Bub as being responsible for the Cecily lynch. Notice how PARAMA didn't get called out for that, despite being 2x as responsible. Oso's case on Bub never made sense to me in that regard.

Then from his giant ISO #40 where he voted Bub, by his ISO #44 he's changed his mind ONLY because he's still alive and Bub would have killed him, and basically he drops the Bub suspicion. And now he's onto his next suspicion.

Personally I think we should hang him high right now.

I voted above in case you missed it in the awesomeness of the case.

[Enigma]

Votecount 4.3

All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain ... Time to die.

Sundy (2) - DemonHybrid, Oso

crazypianist1116 (1) - TwistedSpoon
DemonHybrid (1) - AGar
Oso (1) - Sundy

Not Voting (2) - Bub Bidderskins, crazypianist1116

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch, 3 to no lynch.
The

deadline

is 11:30pm 29th March GMT+10.30.

[AGar]

VOTE: Sundy

Still not comfortable with DH, but I can't get anything more than uber-bus/chaining lynches and the NK analysis, which isn't enough here.

Sundy, you're now at L-1. Enjoy, scumbag.

[Sundy]

Bad job AGar.

I can claim upon request, but please, I'd far rather that this wagon re-direct onto scum. My case against Oso is delightful.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Okay, I looked back at Parama, and probably the player he pressured the most before RBT was Oso. However, he didn't pressure him that much. Call it a slight scum-tell, but that, plus the stuff I brought up on D-3 demand a:

vote: Oso

His speculation on last night also doesn't ring well with me. He said "this is what I would do if I were scum..." he was trying to tell us that if he was scum, he wouldn't have done a certain thing. All of that is simply an attempt to deflect suspision on him that perhaps carried over from D-3.

As for Sundy, I think there may be a decent case on him, but I would like an Oso lynch better.

As for DH, the case on him is weak at best. I seriously don't buy the "hyper-bus, setup Cecily lynch" theory one bit, and my overall read on him is town.

[Twistedspoon]

Please read

I seriously don't think a sundy lynch would help us.

It saddens me that my top 2 town reads are on this wagon.


anyaways, if in the disastrous event that sundy gets lynched, Oso should become a prime lynch candidate.

I'd be much happier with an Oso lynch than a sundy one. Sundy seems strongly town to me, and Oso should have been lynched yesterday :/
He's tried to hard to distance himself from scum yet speculate too

VOTE: Oso

The second we get a town flip on either you or me, the other becomes almost unlynchable.

It's obvious that he was going to NK me to get unlynchable status on him.

This had best be done now should I be killed in the nightphase (which is very likely provided Sundy or Oso do not claim PR)
as for CP i have no-idea where he fits into this. He's certainly a wildcard to me

I want a claim or hammer. (Oso of course)

[Oso]

I've already claimed here, TS

..
I'm a VT.
..

Did you expect it change between then and now?

As a modification of that post, you can put town reads everyone but Sundy. One scum left means everybody else has to be town, even you Bub.

Sundy gets the ObvScum category all to himself.

[Twistedspoon]

As a modification of that post, you can put town reads everyone but Sundy. One scum left means everybody else has to be town, even you Bub.

I've already said that I have a town read on sundy and my reasons for it

anyways, I thought you were the one to suggest 3 original mafioso?

[Oso]

It was a caution. The only claims in play right now are yours and mine. Both VT.

crazy, Bub, DH, Sundy and AGar are still unclaimed.

I agree that 3 original mafia is less likely than 2 original from a general balance standpoint, but until you get everyone claimed or the game ends, setting that in stone could conceivably bite you in the ass.

I'm not going to soften this. The reason you were left alive, even as a confirmed townie, is not because Parama was more dangerous or a better player than you are (both are true) but because you have demonstrated the following:

• You are new, or at least give that impression. I don't know if ms is the first place you have ever played mafia but anyone looking at your play would assume very limited experience.
  
• You are easily confused in regards to the game of Mafia. Comes with being a new player.
  
• You have shown a marked tendency lately to attack anyone who make a posts with your name in it that doesn't have TS=Town in it somewhere or even hints that you are something other than town.

You are a scum wet dream. And there is proof, aside from the comments CP, made after your hammer, no one has said anything about your no-claim hammer of RBT. Part of that is because of RBT's attitude during run-up to lynch. The greater part is that someone has that in their pocket and at some point, somebody is going to call you on the hammer or maybe just whiff some general doubt on your status. If you don't react the way you have been reacting on your own and vote them, then someone else(scum) is going to say something along the lines of:

"Jeez, TS. He thinks you are scum, let's lynch him." and you are going to go along. You are specifically being saved, by scum, for that or similar reasons.

[Sundy]

anyways, I thought you were the one to suggest 3 original mafioso?

Quite. Oso has a long and twisted history of "speculation" as to how many Mafia are left.

His post today:

As a modification of that post, you can put town reads everyone but Sundy.

One scum left

means everybody else has to be town, even you Bub

But yesterday he had this to say:

That's why I finally came to the conclusion it was a mistake that Parama was killed rather than deliberate. A kill of a townie last night

puts us in lylo today. 4:3

. So the initial shock of having Parama, a player I'd have thought would be a good player for an early recruitment attempt, show up dead immediately triggered a 'knee-jerk' "No way in hell that happened by accident" response.

Oso, why did you state that there would have been 3 scum left alive today if Parama had lived?? Especially because earlier in the game, you stated that if Parama was killed deliberately, that means there were 2 scum left? And you already decided he COULDN'T have been killed deliberately, so shouldn't that leave us in a 6:1 scenario by your logic? Why all the confusion (dare I say dissimulation?) about how many baddies are left?

[Oso]

The only scenario I could see that had Parama killed deliberately was if there were 2 scum left besides him.

AS I STATED SEVERAL TIMES. That Parama could be killed accidentally before the mafia tried a recruitment made absolutely no sense to me. It shouldn't make any sense initially to anyone who has played with him or read any game that had him in it. All that speculation about a 3:1 vs a 2:1 is me trying to get that fact straight in my head. DH saw what the problem I was having with that, CP did as well.

They weren't adverse to the fact I brought it up. It was obvious that were buying it but their response was to try and calm me down aboot it and get me back into the game with thinking that might actually help. They succeeded.

In an initial 2:1 start, killing Parama deliberately makes no sense at all as half the team is already dead (Akira). In an initial 3:1 start, killing Parama on purpose

might

make sense in one specific scenario even if one scum is already dead.

On giving some thought on the one I thought might make sense, even it failed because keeping Parama alive puts us in a LyLo today (4:3) with a good chance of no one realizing it is. Ista win with a mis-lynch and town going "WTF"

So

in this game

it makes no sense to kill to kill Parama under any circumstances last night. So, Parama's death was a mistake. Had scum been able to figure out Parama's status before last night (no matter how many are left) he would have been recruited rather than killed.

Given all that above, the 'one scum left' point of view makes sense from a balance standpoint. The 'two scum left' viewpoint really doesn't except that it is not a bad thing to keep in the back of your head just in case.

That's what all that did for me. Between my thinking and posting my thoughts, as confusing as they might to you folks right now looking back, a couple of players told to calm down and think. That's what I did.

I kept the 'two scum left' in the back of my mind and re-read as if I was looking for a single scum. No connections to anyone still alive. Just connections or interactions to dead players. I found you and that post of Parama's (Post-260..I have the post number memorized by now. Another couple of posts and I'll probably have the damn URL memorized too.)

You are scum independent of a connection to anyone still breathing in the game.

[DemonHybrid]

For the record, I'm going to be

V/LA from March 19th, 8 AM to March 21st, 8 AM

with mayyyybe a few posts in between, but you'll definitely see a drop of activity from me. Going to New Jersey and then helping out at a Deaf social this weekend.

[Sundy]

Ah right. I see what you are saying. It looked to me like you were accidentally acknowledging that if Parama had lived, we'd for sure be in LyLo today. But what you actually said was that today would be a 4:3 LyLo if Parama had lived, but that was conditional on there being 2 scum-buddies after Akira's death. You eventually rejected this possibility because if there were 2 scum-buddies, they wouldn't have killed him intentionally, because they could get to LyLo by keeping the traitor alive. I had to read your posts a couple times to get it.

However, you're still bad. As evidenced by your post-mortem analysis of Parama's posts, you missed his cues about being the traitor, even though you were looking for them (just as I'm sure you were looking for cues when the traitor was still alive). After you killed him and realized you'd dealt your team a mortal blow, your brain went into shock and you started inventing impossibilities, hence your distress and confusion at the beginning of Day 4.

I just want to quickly address your case on me.
During all of page 2 in your ISO, you have nothing to say aside that I'm "dead neutral" and variations thereof
Day 4, #51: You use me to prove that Parama was fighting with lots of people "like an erratic wind," no suspicion voiced. I would guess that your hidden agenda here is to show that Parama pressuring you doesn't mean anything.
Day 4, #53: You vote me. Your evidence is my "interaction" with Parama, my failure to vote on you when you were L-1, and my suspicion about your reaction to Parama's death
Day 4, #54: You reiterate your points
Day 4, #55: Decline to comment on possible scum-partnerships because you're "confident" that I'll flip scum
Day 4, #56: You respond to my growing suspicions of you, no new evidence
Day 4, #57: Reiterate point that I was communicating with Parama

As we can see, all of your arguments appear in post #53, coincidentally the first one in which you suspect me. Everything after that is merely an expansion of your point or stating that I'm scum without evidence. So let's take the 3 arguments you made in post #53.

Interaction with Parama

Town, please compare these two posts and tell me which looks more like a Mafia traitor trying to communicate. Pay attention to the context, and how many times the word "traitor" appears in the second link.
Parama to Sundy
Parama mentions the traitor, says Traitor is Twisted and Oso is innocent

My failure to vote on you at L-1

Oso, your original interpretation of my lack of vote on you is plausible (and accurate). It's a similar read that Twistedspoon gave to me. After giving a good interpretation of my play, you inexplicably ditch it on a re-read. Only because you need someone to vote. So after listing reasons why it would be INCREDIBLY easy for me to hammer you, and suggesting that I don't hammer because I'm "unsure town," you then decide I'm not town and I was just exhibiting paranoia instead. This accusation is essentially a town-read disguised as a scum-read.

What I think is telling is that he doesn't vote me. I'm below the scum line in Post-376 and even though I don't agree with Bub's points against me, some are defensible. Sundy could have totally sheeped Bub's case and in the next day hash-up of the lynch, made Bub look like the bad guy (Parama could have probably done the same). The only reasons I can think he didn't do so is because of paranoia or he is unsure town (<-that is what I was initially going with when Sundy didn't vote me: That he was unsure town). In light of a re-read, I don't think that anymore.

My suspicion about your reaction to Parama's death

Uh, this is little more than disguised OMGUS. You acknowledge that other people also found this suspicious and even voted you for it, but for some reason you single me out. Why? Not entirely clear.

Can someone please hammer the opportunistic, lying scum??

[Twistedspoon]

I'm not going to soften this. The reason you were left alive, even as a confirmed townie... (waffling)

I really don't see the point of this. Stop talking about me (as in not you)
I have no relevance to your case

How I've played and how scum see may have little bearing on the role PM you received

[Oso]

You are right, how scum see you has no bearing at all on my role PM, it's a town PM.

Why not talk about you? Or the weather? Or the Tsunami.

This day is basically over.

crazypianist is going to come in, look things over ask a few questions, maybe ask Sundy for a claim, or just go ahead and hammer me since I've claimed already.

I'm not even going to try to get you and Bub to change your votes. You because I don't think it's possible at this point. Bub, because even though he voting me, he's pointing in the right direction for tomorrow:

..
As for Sundy, I think there may be a decent case on him, but I would like an Oso lynch better.
..

It's not a slam dunk but I'm pretty sure he'll be going that direction if I get flipped here today. Half the reason I went after Bub is because I've seen him post in games and outside of them, he knows how to think. The only reason I could come up with him hammering Cecily was that he was scum and I let that cloud my thinking. I did what he did except he didn't stop to think in regards to Cecily and I didn't stop to think there was another reason he was voting Cecily other than it was an easy lynch. He simply got up in the momentum that was fueled by the D1 lynch of scum.

Agar or DH might conceivably change their votes to me, but I'd only expect to see that if crazy didn't come in and solve it or if he showed up and couldn't make a decision but I don't see that happening. crazy doesn't look like he has any problems making up his mind.

So things are good for me from where I sit. If crazy comes in and votes me, it is game over when you guys lynch Sundy tomorrow. If he votes Sundy, then game over tonight and I get to start making fun of Sundy for missing Parama's message to him that much sooner although I'm guessing Parama has already, or still is, ripping him a new one in the Dead Thread , if Enigma made one.

Life, as far as mafia goes, is good today. So I'ma wait on crazy and see if has anything he wants answered from my end before he makes any decisions.

BTW, that post where I was talking to you. It's advice. Quit being so paranoid about your own survival. While alive, hunt scum (or lynch townies depending on what you are that game). When dead keep up with the game and enjoy. If you get into this situation again, where you are alive and you think you should be dead, try and figure out why.

You came up with one on your own except that really only works if you are dead. DH came up with another. You are not dead because there was a more dangerous person on the hit list. Mine was another: That you are being kept alive for a specific purpose.

After the game is over, you might find it was a mish-mash of all the reasons you could think of and others came up with, or it could be none of them. If something is happening you don't understand, doing what you did was good start, asking. Although doing so in the game is a bit problematic.

[Oso]

@Sundy,

NOW: THERE IS ONE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT CONCLUSION FROM THIS ANALYSIS. It is this: that Parama was never successfully recruited (

unless there's another killer at work

). Please keep this in mind for the future.

The bold. I didn't exactly miss that the first time through but I think I did stop reading that paragraph at "..Parama was never successfully recruited."

Not sure what you are getting at there.

[crazypianist1116]

Sundy, a claim.

[Sundy]

Not sure what you are getting at there.

Parama wasn't killed by Mafia who knew his role. Either they didn't know his role, there was a bus driver (not possible in mini games) or he was killed by someone else, possibly a vig or SK.

Crazy, I really wish you had hammered rather than making me claim, but whatever. Odds are Oso is the only scum left. He is so absurdly scummy that I think he's bad and on the off-chance that he's got a partner, we'll have to figure it out with 1 more PR exposed.

I am

Town Watcher

. I know Mae was also, but I guess there's two this game.

[Oso]

Results please

Night
Target
Results of watches please.

[Sundy]

Sure.

Night 1, I targeted AGar. This is my first non-Newbie game where I didn't play a VT, so I wasn't quite sure how to use the role, and I targeted someone I found suspicious. However, no one targeted AGar, and from the way the mod worded the results, I knew I should start looking at people I thought would be targeted.

Night 2, I targeted Parama. Maemuki visited him that night.

Night 3, I watched Bub. No one visited him.

[Oso]

Without seeing the initial role PM I can't outright say parts of point 1 are a lie.

I'll answer any questions you have on my own behavior crazy if you have a need to ask.

[Sundy]

Oso, you never answered Twisted's question in #573.