Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Furcolow]

@BOTS, no, I am pro-town in that I win when the threats to the peace are eliminated, or whatever.

[Furcolow]

town...silencer... yeah, right

vote: amrun

[Sathoris]

And yet that's the only thing on Furc I saw you mention.

I've been suspicious of him the whole game. If you read my posts in D1 then you'll find they're mostly about Furculow. I didn't want to unvote him but I was the only one left and I felt my vote would be more useful on someone else.

Now that Furculow is once again being voted I'm happy to place my vote back on him.

[Amrun]

I actually ISO'ed you after that and saw your old suspicions of Furc. I forgot them at the time. My apologies.

[Sotty7]

Day 2, vote count 4

DavidParker - 1 -

LynchMePls

Furcolow - 5 -

Scott Brosius, DavidParker, XScorpion, InflatablePie, Sathoris

gonnano - 3 -

bvoigt, Amrun, smargaret

Amrun -4 -

gonnano, EGL, Beasts of the Sea, Furcolow

Not voting - 7 -

mothrax, ThAdmiral, Artem, Lowell, Nachomamma8, Stephoscope, Feysal

With

20

alive, it takes

11

to lynch.

Deadline for the end of day two is Tuesday 23rd March @11am CST

Feysal

has been prodded.

[Stephoscope]

Vote: Furcolow

He's been the obvious lynch since the beginning of today.

[LimMePls]

Meanwhile, Amrun is still scum. I voted for PI before, then unvoted because the wagon speed made me uneasy. Amrun has done plenty since then to help me get over my discomfort. Most notably, the claim and how none of it is townie in any way.

We've already talked about the fact that the claim is not a scumtell. Specifically, what are those other reasons for voting Amrun?

@LMP: It looks to me like Sathoris is trying to skate by, and posting very little good content. You've played with him before, right? What do you think?

He's acting scummy, no doubt.

[LimMePls]

I'm gonna lean town on Amrun. I mean a town roleblocker wouldn't really roleblock a "silencer". I just don't think it's likely. Now if he's scum he shouldn't have been roleblocked at all. The only thing that makes some sense is a different scum group to Amrun's roleblocking him.

Basically I see one of two things happening:
Town Amrun got roleblocked by scum to set him up.
ScumA Amrun got roleblocked by ScumB to set him up.

First seems slightly more probable.

I love how some accuse me of being scum for noting that Amrun being roleblocked makes him scummy, but this right here gets no reaction. THIS IS SO SCUMMY.

First off, what DP is essentially saying here is "Amrun is town, or he isn't". Obv statement is obv.

Setting aside the absurdity of the statement, how on earth is the first "slightly more probable"? DP gives no explanation for why the first would be slightly more probable, he just asserts it as if its a fact.

But even WORSE, if it is "slightly" more probable, why should that tip DP to a town read on Amrun, when DP has plenty of other reasons to think Amrun is scum (that he pounded us about over and over yesterday). Suddenly this magically negates all of DP's feelings on Amrun from yesterday!? WHY!?!?!?

This does NOT add up. DP is scum.

THAD 1297 MAKES ME SO HAPPY! THANK YOU!

DP's reads have been completely and totally tactical, and he's been changing them whenever he think he can get away with it. HE'S PLAYING LIKE SCUM!

[DavidParker]

DP's reads change on a regular basis. get over it.

[Lowell]

Not really caught up completely, but in the meantime I tend to agree that Amrun isn't a priority. I'm getting townvibes from him lately, besides.

vote gonna

. This guy hangs around, hangs around. Not clear how.

Hadn't thought that much about furcolow, but will go back and read through again.

[InflatablePie]

@BOTS, no, I am pro-town in that I win when the threats to the peace are eliminated, or whatever.

"or whatever"

god he doesn't even know the town wincon omg he's scum

[ThAdmiral]

THAD 1297 MAKES ME SO HAPPY! THANK YOU!

Well I'm glad at least one person read it.

@ david: can you please answer the queries revolving around your claim yesterday that there were "more pro-town players on the Bunny wagon and more scummy players on the gonnano wagon". I don't believe you've answered this satisfactorily.

[gonnano]

I did actually refute your argument extensively, yesterday, gonnano. I don't feel the need to repeat myself, especially since my side was validated by Bunny flipping town.

Try again, Amrun. Most of what you said yesterday was about how Che is a scummy role (which I already agreed with) and how I couldn't "prove" McCarthy's motivation.
The only support you gave for why you think Che might be

more likely

to be scum in this game than McCarthy was when you said that he had a hand in nuclear warfare, while McCarthy didn't. Hardly extensive, and in my opinion not accurate either. The Cuban Missile Crisis didn't result in any actual nuclear warfare -- just the threat of nuclear warfare. While McCarthy's actions might not have been as devastating as Che's, I think that they were more underhanded, and therefore more scummy.

I don't mean to revisit the useless argument we had D1, but the point is that you have yet to "refute my argument extensively".

--------------------------------------

And now Lowell's voting me with the logic that I haven't been lynched yet. Can't argue with that.

--------------------------------------

Thad: your explanation about the target-claiming with amrun makes perfect sense ... considering that you think she's town. Because I don't think Amrun is town, I still don't share your opinion, but it's not because there's a problem with your position.

Regarding post 1297, I think it makes good sense (and my pick out of the three is Lowell, for the record), but Amrun is higher on the list for me right now. Already people are starting to forget how scummy this slot has been, so I really can't see anything good out of waiting to lynch.

-----------------------------------------

DP has been a null read for me mostly, but LMP makes a very good point.

[Nachomamma8]

Kennedy's back. Thank you for holding.
In loving memorium of Llamafluff.

First off, some speculation. Most likely, the "removed from bunker" kill was RedCoyote's. Removing from the bunker seems to be more protown than any of the others, since removing from the bunker isn't killing, and is instead taking someone from the warzone (and thus promoting peace). Ghostwriter was also leagues scummier than RedCoyote or Llama, so it checks out pretty nicely there, too. This means that we're most likely dealing with two separate scum teams, most likely of three each.

RedCoyote's major suspect before death was mothrax, major town read was Amrun.
LlamaFluff's major suspect before death was EGL, major town read was Amrun and gonnano.
In other words, at least one of mothrax/EGL is scum, and Amrun is almost certainly town and is thus not our lynch for the day.

Spoiler: jmj/mothrax ISO

Now, I don't like how DavidParker and PoisonIvy both have started speculating about the set-up on page 1. Also, they both seem to be ignoring the glaringly obvious possible mafia win-con CML posted. However, that isn't enough for me to vote them yet.

Now, this seems odd as hell to me considering that he answered Furc's setup question earlier than the post.

Unfortunately, that's the only interesting part about jmj's posting; it's just a lot of excuses, procrastinating, and catching up.

Next, mothrax.

Hi guys. Will begin reading now. Fair warning, I suck at catch-ups.

"Hi guys go easy on me."

Oh dear. you can tell I'm scum from one post with no content? How do you do it? Where did you get your psychic abilities from?

Yes, I realize he's being sarcastic in this post. But responding to being called scum with "ARE YOU PSYCHIC?" is never a good sign to me, regardless.

Then, mothrax falls into a patten of lurking similar to his predecessor. The catchup post is pretty much all of the content he cares to provide.

Spoiler: EGL

EGL's ISO looks a hell of a lot better, and I'm about 80% sure that he's town, especially with the revelation that Amrun is town as well. In particular, I like the jump from PI to ThAd when the Ivy wagon was in full swing, and I like the attack on Llama a lot. It wouldn't be in scumEGL's best interests at all to jump from the PI wagon at that point in time, since it looked fairly certain it would lead to a lynch, and since he had already been criticized for vote-hopping earlier in the game. That attack on Llama was an "Amrun and Llama are buddies attack", which I liked a lot mainly because he went after Llama over Amrun. Again, it would be more efficient and more beneficial for EGL as scum just to attack the easier target, but EGLtown would have reason to attack the one he thought was slipping under everyone's radar.

Vote: mothrax

Thad, why aren't you voting?
gonnano, stop doing flavor speculation. It's useless.

[gonnano]

If I was lying about my powers, I would have picked a less scummy power than silencing. Ugh.

Stop polluting the game with your WIFOM trash.

Occam's Razor.

I don't think Occam's razor applies exactly to a situation like this. The simplest explanation in almost every case is to assume that everyone is telling the truth, but that kind of thinking won't get you very far in a game based on lying.

[bvoigt]

Nacho's post makes a lot of sense. However, I'm still very happy with my gonnano vote.

[Feysal]

Responding to prod. I've been slacking off in my games, sorry about that. Incoming catchup post.

I'm sorry to see that the discussion during the weekend seems to have focused mainly on Amrun. I think I made my stance clear yesterday, I think she is town, and what others are calling scummy about her I see as newbie play. PoisonIvy's reaction to being wagoned was a strong town tell for me, and that is why I continue to believe Amrun is town. I don't think scum would claim a silencer anyway, WIFOM or no, and since we should be able to verify her ability after another day or two, I say that Amrun should not be todays lynch and we should look at alternatives. I saw bvoigt and ThAdmiral do some of that, and I'm liking them both better for it.

I also don't buy the DavidParker case LMP is pushing. It seems to be based solely on his comment of joining the wagon with townier members, and while odd, it does not override the town read I got from how he reacted to Amrun's claim.

People I'm considering as possible scum include gonnano, Lowell, Sathoris and Furcolow. Except for Furcolow I have no cases to present at this time, but I have cause to suspect each of the others. Some of gonnano's flavor arguments seem to really stretch historical facts to suit a predetermined conclusion, Lowell seems to have avoided any major wagons, and Sathoris is being much more silent than I'm used to seeing him.

This is a good point. But it also applies retrospectively to Amrun and the mix up with general MacArthur. There's no way that mistake would have been made if she had checked the wiki page.
It is weird but people can just be lazy sometimes and not check wiki pages, I guess?

What my point was about was that instead of reading Wikipedia, Furcolow asked about his role in thread. I actually found that very scummy on first reading, since I thought Furcolow had claimed not to like his character - if he did not know much about him, how could he dislike him? Then I checked back and noticed Furcolow had claimed not to like his nationality. I suppose he means the Soviets, don't know what he'd have against Azeris.

Heydar Aliyev, Soviet Bulletproof

I don't really know a lot about my character, can someone inform me?

I'm soviet, basically, from Azerbaijan or whatever. My guy was friends with the Democracy in Russia, so he is on the good side, if one so exists. It is all based upon perspective. I like capitalism more, so I don't mind. I don't really feel nervous about a wagon on me, or claiming anything. Lynch me if you all will, I don't really care.

We've established that flavor arguments are pretty much null tells in this game, but misrepresenting your character like this caught my eye. In fact Heydar Aliyev was the chairman of the Azerbaijani KGB and the leader of Soviet Azerbaijan. He was a hardliner, who was pushed out of power by Gorbachev during the perestroika. He was also involved with the Azeri mafia and gross corruption, while keeping a facade of fighting corruption.

Despite the persecutions of all his relatives in Azerbaijan, Gamboi Mamedov investigated Aliyev's corruption and ties with the mafia. This led to the mass suicide of a number of Azeri mafia members, as well as 'mysterious' deaths of a number of Aliyev's lieutenants.

Based on this and other mentions in the article, Aliyev could be described as the godfather of the Azeri mafia.

However, this flavor does not condemn Furcolow, since we've seen how reliable that is. What does look odd is how he claimed to be a friend of democracy. Aliyev did reinvent himself as a moderate nationalist after the Soviet Union collapsed, but considering that he appointed his own son as his successor, I would not say democracy was high on his agenda.

@Feysal: while we're giving out possible scumtells, why did

you

think there were two scum teams?

From reading the rules, and the first couple pages of the thread. The rules say that players have a separate alignment and nationality. This implies that the town consists of several nationalities, and several players obviously agree. But then, what is the purpose of nationality in the game mechanics? My theory is that there are two mafia factions, whose win condition is to eliminate the opposing nationalities, whether town or scum, and they don't need to kill the townies who share the same nationality. The rules say that there is a possible mafia win condition that only Soviet players remain, and I believe there is another that says only non-Soviet players remain. Considering that there are Soviet townies, the sample mafia win condition would not require the Soviet mafia to kill them.

@LMP: It looks to me like Sathoris is trying to skate by, and posting very little good content. You've played with him before, right? What do you think?

I saw LMP answer this already, but since I've played with Sathoris more, I'll add my own opinion. In the games I've played with Sathoris he has usually been quite aggressive, and the last time I noted him being cautious he was a cult leader. Those games were much faster than this one so it makes sense that his play would be somewhat different, but I do see cause for suspicion.

IN CONCLUSION:
- I think there is a VERY high possibility of at least one scum in the

bvoigt

,

smarg

and

lowell

group.
-

DavidParker

's reasoning for his vote was inconsistent with what he had said previously, and therefore he could be scum.

I'm going to look at bvoigt, smarg and lowell and will probably place my vote on one of them.

Off the top of my head Lowell is the one I agree on the most, with bvoigt and smargaret I'm leaning town.

Regardless of Amrun being RBed or not, the role ability is inherently not a town ability. She is still scum.

I have seen a town silencer before, in fact far more drastic than the role Amrun claimed. What I saw was a silencer who could not only prevent a player from voting, but from posting altogether. With 48 hour days, this was not quite as bad as it sounds though. That was an off-site game, but anyway I'd be careful about trying to outguess the mod about what roles he would give the town.

"or whatever"

god he doesn't even know the town wincon omg he's scum

Given that the town win condition is mentioned in the rules, Furcolow is just making himself look foolish.

Preview edit: Glad to see some scum hunting from Nachomamma8. mothrax is another one that needs a closer look.

[bvoigt]

@LMP: It looks to me like Sathoris is trying to skate by, and posting very little good content. You've played with him before, right? What do you think?

I saw LMP answer this already, but since I've played with Sathoris more, I'll add my own opinion. In the games I've played with Sathoris he has usually been quite aggressive, and the last time I noted him being cautious he was a cult leader. Those games were much faster than this one so it makes sense that his play would be somewhat different, but I do see cause for suspicion.

If Sathoris was used to faster games, I would think he'd be more likely to play the opposite of how he is right now...as in, be

more

active and aggressive than the typical MS player.

[ThAdmiral]

Thad: your explanation about the target-claiming with amrun makes perfect sense ... considering that you think she's town. Because I don't think Amrun is town, I still don't share your opinion, but it's not because there's a problem with your position.

Cool. We'll just agree to disagree then.

Regarding post 1297, I think it makes good sense (and my pick out of the three is Lowell, for the record), but Amrun is higher on the list for me right now. Already people are starting to forget how scummy this slot has been, so I really can't see anything good out of waiting to lynch.

It is very unlikely amrum isn't getting lynched today. You mentioned lowell is your preferred pick out of the three I mentioned. Would you like to elaborate on that?

Thad, why aren't you voting?

Aren't I? Better fix that...

vote: davidparker

subject to change if he answers my question satisfactorily.

[mothrax]

Nacho, your basic case against me is for lurking. It's funny cause it's hypocritical.

I still don't have a computer. Hopefully tomorrow I will be back to full strength mothrax.

[InflatablePie]

Given that the town win condition is mentioned in the rules, Furcolow is just making himself look foolish.

god he doesn't realize when I use no punctuation or proper capitalization and start the sentence with "god" I'm usually being facetious omg he's scum too unvote vote Feysal :<

[ThAdmiral]

god he doesn't realize when I use no punctuation or proper capitalization and start the sentence with "god" I'm usually being facetious

I can vouch for this behavior from ip.

[Furcolow]

ill go look at my exact pm
hold on

[Furcolow]

heydar aliyev, soviet townie. I am against war.
lynching me isn't that bad; better than lynching a PR.
However, Amrun claimed SILENCER. How can you all ignore that?
I'm not shifting my vote.
If someone wants to ask me anything, go right ahead.
If you want me to actually scumhunt, perhaps you should make me stop defending myself.

[Furcolow]

whatever.