Open 291 Frenenemies (+ other guy) - Game over: Wolves win!

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

/confirm

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

vote: ThAD

for being the mod

unvote, vote

wizrak for having a weird name and being first to confirm.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

vote: wizrak

i meant, didn't get the whole thing bold

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

don't have time to post right now, just saying I'll be v/la until monday. have a final tomorrow and essay due monday, so if i'm done with it early, might be back early.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

first off, sorry that I didn't post yesterday, was busy.

Not getting that much out of this RVS so far, so let's do some RQS.

-How screwed is the town?

can't tell until later in the game, hopefully we aren't.

-Which are cooler, werewolves or mafia?

depends on my mood, i guess werewolves

-How lurkerish are YOU?

... a lot. unfortunately, i tend to only post when i have something new to say, so if i have the same thoughts as someone else, I'm not going to make a post only saying i agree. it just takes up space. this game i'm going to try to be more attentive and post more often.

-Rate the following on a scale of Very Scummy to very Noobish to Totally Pro:

-Asking questions about role mechanics (Is this always role fishing?)

not necessarily always rolefishing, and while not a great move, I've seen town do stuff that's scummy

-Talking about No Lynch

if there's use for a no lynch, then of course talk about it

-Talking about theory in the first few pages

usually unhelpful, but again, not necessarily scummy

And the most important question:
-Why haven't you voted Crazy yet?

because i'm not planning on it

now that that is out of the way, I really don't like aah's coming into vote and then leaving for a while, but i can't say it's scummy for him yet. but aah, how come you don't seem to be posting as much as usual?

unvote

because i don't actually think wizrak was scum, that was leftover from rvs. don't particularly like wizrak's play, but i don't see it as scummy.

Krazy is my number two suspect right now. I especially don't like the lynch all lurkers post, especially the reasons for some people. we aren't going to spend 5 days lynching lurkers, so why even bring it up?

then:
TheBigLebowski (for vanishing from multiple games simultaneously)

then:
smashbro (because I'm running out of reasons)

you say to lynch TBL for not being in any games? If anything that just means that he has no time at all, not lurking in general. as for me, thanks for giving no reason, but why throw me on there? I was on v/la. (other people on the list might have been too, idk. same goes for anyone else who announced v/la). Please tell me that this is just a joke post to get reactions.
other than that, there is Krazy calling himself a hypocrite, which tends to be scum lampshading bad play they want to get away with. A decent amount of your posts have been either calling out the lurkers or looking for support on your RVS wagon on Crazy. Now, you're voting Wizrak, but when did you actually push for the wagon? You made the comment about him being thin skinned and for wagoning, but that's about it. Seems like you're just latching onto a popular wagon without reason. oh wait. you said you were doing that, right hypocrite? simply wagoning someone who was wagoning?


my top scum right now is chkflp though.

Now, which comment is more odd - Quaroath's choo-choo comment without him actually being on the wagon

or

the fact that Glass felt it necessary to point out the obvious? Neither. They're both dismissable.

Jerbs' OMGUS through an RVS filter is something to note, though.

This post is full of scumminess, bringing up 3 things that could be called scummy if put together with another case, and bringing them up would probably make chk look good and that he could use later. I could easily see him going back and saying they aren't dismissible anymore if he needs to. He's setting himself up for calling anybody from this group scum if somebody starts a wagon.

now that chk hasn't been around, there really isn't much more to comment on, so I'll

vote Krazy

for now, at least until chk or a replacement comes back.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

a lot of long quotes, so i put it in a few spoilers.

Spoiler: regarding Krazy

Krazy is my number two suspect right now. I especially don't like the lynch all lurkers post, especially the reasons for some people. we aren't going to spend 5 days lynching lurkers, so why even bring it up?

I was pretty clear that I was doing it simply to encourage lurkers to post more. Interesting that you seem to want to ignore the context, however.

And why would we assume that we can't spend 5 days lynching lurkers? If all the lurkers do is lurk, and never send in their night actions, then maybe there won't be any nightkills! Easiest town-win ever!

if you want to risk it, whatever :p

you say to lynch TBL for not being in any games? If anything that just means that he has no time at all, not lurking in general.

Well of course that's why he wasn't at the very top of the list.

true, but not a good reason for lynching at all

as for me, thanks for giving no reason, but why throw me on there? I was on v/la.

That is my bad, actually. I will downplay my mistake by saying you didn't bold your v/la announcement

fair enough

Please tell me that this is just a joke post to get reactions.

I don't understand how you would read my exchange with Glass and take it as anything other than that.

gotta look back at the whole convo, but yeah, i just wanted to make sure this was a joke

A decent amount of your posts have been either calling out the lurkers or looking for support on your RVS wagon on Crazy.

That's sort of like saying "you've either been calling out 90% of the game or looking for support on your pressure of the other 10%"

so? You do seem to be spending a lot of time only saying "lurkers shouldn't lurk

Now, you're voting Wizrak, but when did you actually push for the wagon? You made the comment about him being thin skinned and for wagoning, but that's about it. Seems like you're just latching onto a popular wagon without reason. oh wait. you said you were doing that, right hypocrite? simply wagoning someone who was wagoning?

Actually, I explained that I was doing so because she was putting in the motions of RVS without actually putting substance behind her votes when voting either candidate. Wagoning without content. Apparently you decided to skip this post too, however.

ok, went back, i see it

vote Krazy

for now, at least until chk or a replacement comes back.

Okay, so you have a top scum candidate, but instead you vote for someone else?

yeah, because voting chk wouldn't get a reaction. voting you would. helps me decide if you're mafia.

basically the top part of this is null anyway, cause the lurking thing was just a joke, but I still don't like how you have spent the last couple posts talking about lurkers rather than convincing people of the wagon you support.

Spoiler: regarding chkflp

my top scum right now is chkflp though.

Now, which comment is more odd - Quaroath's choo-choo comment without him actually being on the wagon

or

the fact that Glass felt it necessary to point out the obvious? Neither. They're both dismissable.

Jerbs' OMGUS through an RVS filter is something to note, though.

This post is full of scumminess, bringing up 3 things that could be called scummy if put together with another case, and bringing them up would probably make chk look good and that he could use later. I could easily see him going back and saying they aren't dismissible anymore if he needs to. He's setting himself up for calling anybody from this group scum if somebody starts a wagon.

I've pretty much just said the opposite to that. Is there anything else you could easily see me doing after playing a whole one game with me (where you were scum and I lynched you) prior to this one?

Nah, can't use much meta on you, don't really know any. I just saw this as an easy way to bring something that may or may not be scummy up, test the waters to see if anyone latches on, and then agree and look pro-town for bringing it up. You just said why you phrased your post like that, fine. I didn't mean to say that I could easily see you in particular doing that because of meta, I just see it in general as a way for scum to try to stay clean while starting up wagons.

Spoiler: regarding Glass

He's setting himself up for calling anybody from this group scum if somebody starts a wagon.

That is such a stretch, even if he goes on to say that it is not dismissible, attacking someone for something that would have happened pages ago without any support is ludicrous. If he does have other support than it is not really a scum move to reconsider his thoughts.

i could see people referring back to something that may have been looked over earlier, but adds to a case later. People go back and say "oh, hey, this looked innocent at the time, but now that x has flipped scum/town it might make a connection. I don't believe anyone would make a case solely on that sort of thing

now that chk hasn't been around, there really isn't much more to comment on, so I'll
vote Krazy for now, at least until chk or a replacement comes back.

You don't think that chk might feel more inclined to post if there is pressure on him?

no. people come back when they're ready, not when someone votes them. he was already under suspicion, and throwing on another vote wouldn't change that. If he was scum worried about clearing his name, he wouldn't have left when there was attention on him, so I don't think the vote would have helped.

that being said, I'll keep my vote where it is for now. I like the Krazy wagon.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

v/la till sunday

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

i could see people referring back to something that may have been looked over earlier, but adds to a case later. People go back and say "oh, hey, this looked innocent at the time, but now that x has flipped scum/town it might make a connection. I don't believe anyone would make a case solely on that sort of thing

So..... How is it scummy? [/quote]

I see it as trying to start something by bringing everyone else's attention to what could be considered scummy, and then only continuing with it if there is enough people to support that wagon. It wasn't going back per se, but that he might have been trying to test and see everyone's opinions while being non committal himself.


It's good that replacements are coming in, and while it will take a little bit to get a read on them, I'm liking them. Now, Krazy, why did you vote Crazy? Looking at your post, it looks very much like an OMGUS.

The quality of your assessments right now is really bugging me, so I'm going to go ahead and:

unvote; vote Crazy.

It might just be me, but I'm reading this as "your view of me is wrong, so I'm going to vote you." How should I be taking this then? Or is this about right? Because this doesn't look like much of a reason to vote Crazy.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Ok, I honestly don't have much more to add to the conversation, but that I still like the Krazy wagon. He does seem to be a little bit better for me, but not enough to bump him into a neutral read. chk seems a bit better to me, I'm going to call him town for now. I really don't have anything else to say, but hopefully I'll read this over tomorrow and have more.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Alright, so. First off, I have a gut read on Glass as scum (either werewolf or mafia) but I need to look over the thread again before I come up with a case on him. Also the same for singer, will have to work on building a case for her.

First off though, I could get behind a llama wagon.

I didn't like TheBigLebowski, the first player in the slot. Places a random vote and answers the RQS (not scummy). Then, when someone (Crazy?) comments that TBL did not comment at all about the conversation that just happened, TBL only says he thought it was over, but does not try to rectify this by giving his comments. He seemed to know what was going no, but just decided not to comment on it at all. Then, he disappears from the game completely. Seems a lot like active lurking to me. At the end, it was likely that he didn't have the time to put into the game, but that doesn't excuse his lack of content early on.

Then llama comes in, and seems to be doing some good scum hunting. He posts a good case on park, and interestingly does not vote for park in that post. He, in the next post, votes Krazy, who calls him out on this, claiming that the park wagon "will not go anywhere". After he is called out on this, he eventually goes over to a zodiark wagon.

Later on, llama moves onto Crazy (not scummy) and after a few posts, asks Crazy:

@Crazy - If you want to do a shameless counterwagon on chk im down for it.

I find this kind of suspicious, especially when you are voting the person you want to be on the same wagon with.

Later, once the Krazy wagon is nearing a lynch, llama says:

Part of me wants to be all *blam* and hammer because I never get the chance to do something like this, but I want to read more before I do something like that, since Krazy goes in and out of looking like a good lynch.

To me, this seems like he is lampshading his eventual hammer, so when he actually does it, he doesn't look as scummy. To me, its saying "I

could

act scummy and hammer him now, and I want to, but I won't."

Then, llama does eventually hammer. Also, he tells everyone:

NO ONE POST UNTIL SCENE, catchup over night

In what way can posting be scummy? Why ask people not to post while there is time?

Krazy also brings up a pretty good point.

I love it still.

Llama: "The easiest game for scum to win is one where there's not a lot of good discussion..."

Lurkers: Hey guys, we're still kinda here, just give us a minute.

Llama: "OH GOD I HAVE TO HAMMER BEFORE THEY CAN CLEAR THEIR NAMES!"

This is something I didn't realize at the time, but hammering when there is no deadline and plenty of support does not help. It would have been better to wait for lurkers to come in, and get their take on the wagon.

@ llama

something I just saw when looking over the thread, you said I looked town to you in your first post. What's changed now, and why did you call me possibly scum in your first post toDay but not mention any reasons why?


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

also, on the point of mafia or werewolf lynch today, I don't particularly care as long as we get one. There are risks either way, but with a strong town and good scumhunting, it shouldn't matter as long as we keep lynching right. Out of curiosity I'm going to try out the possibilities, see what would happen in each scenario, but let's not get bogged down in discussion on that.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

forgot to

vote: llama

also, ran through all of the scenarios:

if we lynch mafia today, there are 2 ways we can lose, 1 way we can win (two werewolf lynches in a row).
if we lynch werewolf today, there are 24 ways we can lose, 15 ways we can win (big, complicated chart).
if we lynch town today, there are 39 ways we can lose, 9 ways to win (yet another big, complicated chart).

Statistically, there is a very slightly better chance if we lynch a werewolf today (15/39, as opposed to 13/39). If we lynch mafia, we'll have to rely more on scumhunting, if we lynch werewolf, we'll have to hope for at least one cross kill. To me, it's close enough that I don't care which way we lynch, as long as we get someone. Needless to say, if we lynch town, we'll probably need a cross kill to have a chance.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Just checking in really quick, but first off, sorry bout the first couple points llama. I looked back, and you're right. for some reason I could have sworn you voted Crazy with a C at one point, but guess not. I still don't mind leaving my vote on you. I don't particularly like the hammer, or your post leading up to it. Or telling people not to talk after the vote. Sure, it gives scum more to go on, but I think that if they wanted to go for someone who thinks they are scum, they would go for the people who are most likely to start something up, i.e. people who are around more and post more. So I don't think that would matter. I'd still like to keep some pressure on you, especially if I have no other top candidate.

Crazy, I don't know if it makes him more likely werewolf, but it's possible. It's not enough for me to definitely say he's more likely werewolf than mafia though.

Finally, Crazy and llama and anyone else , I really don't care much about the probability of everything, can we focus on actual hunting please?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

@SSS

Do you think that your reasoning (the hammer and telling people not to talk) is enough to justify a vote on llama by itself? Do you have anything else on Llama that happened prior to what you posted?

Pretty much my bad feelings on llama come partially from TheBigLebowski (who Llama repalced) and his opinion that we shouldn't give scum info going to night and lose new player's opinions on who we were lynching. Looking at everything, it's not enough for a vote anymore, so

unvote

.

Anyway, upon rereading:

~~~~~~~ tclawren +++++++++++ Jerbs

jerbs looks kinda scummy to me, having come in and posted only a few times, enough to show that he knew what was going on. He only votes for aaah, which although i like the reasoning, is also a convienient way to avoid taking a stance on more relevant suspects. He does mention chk, but pretty much repeats what someone else said. Today though, I'm getting a town read on tclaw, so I'm willing to let my suspicions on Jerbs slide for now.

~~~~~~~ Glass

joins the wizrak wagon in post 93, barely mentioning him in that post aside from the vote. Even in his next couple posts, he doesn't explain the vote.

You do realize that most of your votes and suspects this game have been people with a wagon on them already? This seems kind of suspicious to me.


~~~~~~~ LlamaFluff +++++++++ TheBigLebowski

I already mentioned how I didn't like TheBigLebowski for probably active lurking, but Llama seems a bit more townish to me right now, but I still, for the record, don't like your hammer.

park --->>>
starts the wagon on wizrak/singer, don't see them being scum together
doesn't like the chk wagon

I'm going to hold back my vote for now, since I'm not really sure where I want it yet. Hopefully will post again tonight, not really confident on any read at the moment.

I think scum would search out one of the numerous easier wagons.

I would be happy with LF/Glass/SSS wagons actually and would hammer them near deadline.

I know that something is wrong here and I just can't quite put my finger on it...

If you see furcolow as scummy (I see your point with this post, but not sure what I feel about furc at the moment) why not vote him?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Those on Llama's wagon (SSS): Do you think Glass is scum?

Yeah, I have a scum read on Glass.

To be honest, I could be behind either lynch right now. As for whether I would lynch a wolf or mafia member, I'm partial to lynching mafia, mostly due to the chance of killing both masons in one night if both scum groups live. I know you're saying that a wolf lynch is better Glass, but the way I calculate it, it's about even, either way. If we leave one member of each alive, then they might join up to help protect themselves and both attack town. If there's only one scum team, then it's a regular game of mafia, with the possibility of masons being there.

Oh, and btw I unvoted in my last post. just in case,

unvote

Also, llama, you never did respond to glass's case against you on page 17. what do you think of it?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

really don't have time for much right now, just saying i'm gonna get back to this game after i get all my homework done for tomorrow. might be a late night, so don't expect a post until tomorrow

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around. First off, I should say that I'm not actually a mason. The mason must have claimed vanilla already.



"I know im town, so there are three players left, one town, one wolf, and one vanilla."

This is from llama's post today. He says he is town, that that there is a town, wolf, and vanilla left (assuming me mason). Maybe a slip?

anyway, my thoughts are that I still like llama as scum, but it's a bit tough to see him as partners with either. I highly doubt that he would be with Glass, so the only other option is that he was with park/DRK. He did drop suspicion of the slot pretty quickly, but also mentioned park a lot in his earlier posts, saying he was probably scum. I have to go back and check his ISO.

my only other definite read is that I'm pretty sure tclaw is a townie, but I'm not 100% yet. given the odds, I'll call him my first town read for now.

I'll be back in a bit, but I have to make a call right now.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Alrighty, first off, dropping Tclaw down a rung for now. why did you want to wait until I posted to say anything? What's the reasoning behind it?

as for llama, votes park's replacement and 3 posts later goes to Krazy, saying that the game needs a kick. he goes back to park's replacement after an exchange with Krazy. Then of course, he sees DRK come in and unvotes. The problem I see with him being mafia is that he pressured park when completely unnecessary. However, there was also no danger of park being lynched. He is also early on the Glass wagon (at least looking at the final vote count). Now, how does this affect your town and scum reads, now that you know I'm not mason? btw, you case on me wasn't that good, since I had both you can Glass as scum reads. I know I didn't end up voting for Glass in the end, but I tended to vote you more because I believed my read on you was stronger. As for the case if DRK and I were parters, I didn't think of park as scum early in the game and so didn't pay much attention to him, and my feelings on DRK were mixed, so I wanted to see more of him before I made my decision. But at that point, there was much more going on, so I put it to the side for a while.

furcolow, your vote on glass was for fairly weak reasons, saying it was because Crazy seemed a bit more townish, and glass' reaction. now, what were your thoughts on DRK and park? you mention that you think Toasty is likely werewolf, but who do you think is mafia now?

also, now that you are L-1, are you willing to claim? If mason, now would be the time to save yourself. Having confirmed town can help a lot right now.

this post to Glass feels off to me. whether it was trying to possibly fish out a mason or give his buddy a chance to preserve himself for a day, or bring out the real masons, I'm not that happy with this post. Also, something to note is that DRK and park both completely ignored the Chk wagon one Day 1. my suspicions of you mostly have to do with other players attitudes toward your slot (DRK and park). Toasty, what do you think of chk's interactions (or lack thereof) with park and DRK. and glass, while we're on topic. chk seemed to be very focused on the Krazy wagon.

hopefully i'll get some reactions to this and post again tomorrow. also, woot for being the last person who originally started with this game (all of you guys replaced someone else)

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

hey, again, don't have much time to really be on, studying for tomorrow, but right now I'd say my reads are Tclaw and Llama as town (Llama gets in mostly cause i find it hard to see him as partner with anyone else) and Toasty and furc as scum ( i could see toast as either mafia or werewolf, and planning on rereading furc to get a more solid read, so not sure yet).

hopefully i'll have time on saturday to look at the game again

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

ahh, makes sense. one more person to throw into the confusion.

@mod let's say we no lynch, and from now on the werewolf doesn't kill and we no lynch. Can this go on forever, or is there a point where you make the werewolf kill or make us lynch someone?

I'm assuming we're going to have to make the decisions out of the 4 of us, minus the mason. Hopefully will be on later today.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Ok, I'm good with a no lynch right now, if the scum wants to win, they'll have to shoot eventually.

as for furcolow's quotes, I can see what you mean with the first quote, but I had that view not cause I'm werewolf, but to avoid the double kill.

In my second quote, yes, I say that llama is not scum with Glass, because of how much the two interacted, and the way they did. But in the second part, I also say how it would be odd that llama was pushing a park case early on, when there was really no need to. How is thinking Llama is more likely mafia a contradiction to what I said before? You just said that I

didn't

want to go after werewolves before. So going after a mafia member would be consistent with what I said. Anyway, at that point, it really didn't matter to me, because it was one each. Llama was the person who I used to have the strongest read on as any kind of scum, but Glass' flip as Werewolf changed that for me, so I was going through all the possibilities for him.


oh, and for good measure

vote: no lynch

even though we should have enough already

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

sorry bout that, been kinda busy.

claim mason

anyway, busy tonight, will hopefully post sometime this weekend.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

I'll prod dodge too. I wanna wait for him too, but he said v/la till tues.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Ok, I have a good feeling I know how today is going to end up, but gonna look over a few things myself. looking forward to you guys replying to your cases on one another. I'm sure it'll come up, but Llama, why are you

not

partners with Glass? first off, night kill speculation.

Furc's reads were not really set in stone, only saying he thought tclaw was town, and said probably Llama town, and me as probably scum, by process of elimination. Person who benefits most from his death? probably me, but i'm not scum. null from this.

let's see everyone's reads from yesterday:

Let's get the reads from everyone. Llama and Toast have their reads out there, what about furc and sss.

My reads:
Furc-town
Toast: Wolf
Llama: town
Sss: Mafia

Llama's reads:
Furc: town
SSS: town
Toast: Wolf
Tcl: Mafia

Llama-scum could have killed Furc, one of his town reads. Also left alive would be me, who has felt bad about him the entire game, and tclaw, who thinks he is town and i was scum.
tclaw-scum would have killed Furc... one of his town reads. left alive is Llama, who thinks he is mafia, and me, who thinks he is town.
either way, the wolf left alive someone who thought them scummy, and someone who thinks they are town. not really helping me.

the only thing i'm wondering about the night kill is why Llama-scum would pick furc over me, given how skeptical Llama was about me claiming not mason. It seemed like he was still thinking I was mason despite the claim (btw, in your first post Llama, you said me and Crazy were town, good job picking out the masons).

so yeah, this didn't get me anywhere, but i guess it's useful to have the info repeated again.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

serious. like, tclaw gave what he said was proof he wasn't partners with glass, to help prove he's not wolf. you have any proof that you can't be partners with Glass, therefore, tclaw is wolf?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

/prod dodge

also, will be on later tonight probably, just want to go through the thread one more time to see if there's anything else i want answered. happy easter everyone!

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

ok, yeah, none of this is going to change. main argument for me is wondering why, if llama was scum, why didn't crazy turn up dead on the first night he joined the game? it seems as though he would have more to gain killing someone who didn't seem to like him, rather than DRK. also, why wouldn't llama, last night, kill the person he thought was mason.

as for tclaw, he does a good job of staying off glass, only voting glass, next post going back to me, and hopping back on glass to look townie for the lynch. Jerbs also attacked and voted aah at one point, which can also be seen as a chainsaw.

basically, i'm justifying my vote right now, because i am flipping, and i want some justification for why i'm not voting llama. I feel like tclaw had more to gain from me living than llama would have.

vote: tclaw

so yeah, if i just screwed up, sorry, but i'm not really good in these situations. llama, if you're wolf, well played. tclaw, if you're wolf, still pretty well played. and if i'm wrong, sorry town.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

ugh, i am so sorry guys