Open 291 Frenenemies (+ other guy) - Game over: Wolves win!

[Furcolow]

id rather mason out and realize furcolow is town
then it's 50 50 baby

[LlamaFluff]

See, if we out mason, the mason is nearly for sure dying tonight.

Who mason is happens to be limited greatly here, but there is a chance that scum screws the preverbial pooch (wolf?) and hits VT. This means that its immediately down to a 50-50 shot at worst, and up to the mason to make the deciding vote. If scum hits mason, then its a whole lot harder to actually figure out who is scum as there is no one cleared by role. Better odds of winning by no lynching here.

I have my read on who is scum at this point, but throwing it out will only be WIFOM into the game, and can influence the kill. I would rather have scum make the first move here.

[Furcolow]

Those on Llama's wagon (SSS): Do you think Glass is scum?

Yeah, I have a scum read on Glass.

To be honest, I could be behind either lynch right now. As for whether I would lynch a wolf or mafia member, I'm partial to lynching mafia, mostly due to the chance of killing both masons in one night if both scum groups live. I know you're saying that a wolf lynch is better Glass, but the way I calculate it, it's about even, either way. If we leave one member of each alive, then they might join up to help protect themselves and both attack town. If there's only one scum team, then it's a regular game of mafia, with the possibility of masons being there.

Oh, and btw I unvoted in my last post. just in case,

unvote

Also, llama, you never did respond to glass's case against you on page 17. what do you think of it?

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around. First off, I should say that I'm not actually a mason. The mason must have claimed vanilla already.



"I know im town, so there are three players left, one town, one wolf, and one vanilla."

This is from llama's post today. He says he is town, that that there is a town, wolf, and vanilla left (assuming me mason). Maybe a slip?

anyway, my thoughts are that I still like llama as scum, but it's a bit tough to see him as partners with either. I highly doubt that he would be with Glass, so the only other option is that he was with park/DRK. He did drop suspicion of the slot pretty quickly, but also mentioned park a lot in his earlier posts, saying he was probably scum. I have to go back and check his ISO.

my only other definite read is that I'm pretty sure tclaw is a townie, but I'm not 100% yet. given the odds, I'll call him my first town read for now.

I'll be back in a bit, but I have to make a call right now.

In the first quote he says he has a scumread on Glass. He then, in his post, apparently buddies up to Glass. He advocates keeping the wolves alive, so that "it's a regular game of mafia". Who does this advice help? the wolves.

In the second quote, He says "LF is scum... but not with Glass... so he is with park/DRK (mafia)" He is hunting mafia here. This is a direct contradiction to what he wanted to do before, and is a scumslip.

vote: SSS

[ThAdmiral]

How many cycles triggers it?

A couple.

[tclawren]

VOTE: no lynch

WE DO NOT LYNCH

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Ok, I'm good with a no lynch right now, if the scum wants to win, they'll have to shoot eventually.

as for furcolow's quotes, I can see what you mean with the first quote, but I had that view not cause I'm werewolf, but to avoid the double kill.

In my second quote, yes, I say that llama is not scum with Glass, because of how much the two interacted, and the way they did. But in the second part, I also say how it would be odd that llama was pushing a park case early on, when there was really no need to. How is thinking Llama is more likely mafia a contradiction to what I said before? You just said that I

didn't

want to go after werewolves before. So going after a mafia member would be consistent with what I said. Anyway, at that point, it really didn't matter to me, because it was one each. Llama was the person who I used to have the strongest read on as any kind of scum, but Glass' flip as Werewolf changed that for me, so I was going through all the possibilities for him.


oh, and for good measure

vote: no lynch

even though we should have enough already

[ThAdmiral]

Day ends in a no-lynch

It is now night 4

[ThAdmiral]

Furcolow has been eaten. He was a

Townie

It is now day 5. With 3 alive it is 2 to lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

Not mason. Mason should claim now even though im still pretty sure on what everyone is here.

Also im basically V/LA until tuesday. Midterm tomorrow, term project due Thursday, then out of town thursday to early sunday with zero access. After that a 10 page essay and a 20 minute presentation due next tuesday. So busy busy, but will try and get a few things in, this game isnt going anywhere.

[Furcolow]

bah
why do people spell my name wrong

it's furcolololow!!!

...what? as if I did? Anyway way to spell your own name wrong!

[tclawren]

sweet not a mason.

[tclawren]

Waiting for SSS...

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

sorry bout that, been kinda busy.

claim mason

anyway, busy tonight, will hopefully post sometime this weekend.

[tclawren]

You want to CC Llama?
I don't.

[tclawren]

/prod dodge

I'm sorry the game is going so slow Thad, we really can't go on without Llama.

[ThAdmiral]

I'll prod him

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

I'll prod dodge too. I wanna wait for him too, but he said v/la till tues.

[LlamaFluff]

Just going to be able to make small posts until later this week. Its a doozy. I can get a case up by some day... Tuesday can be the best bet. Not going to wall clog the thread though.

Vote tcl

Mason claim makes this vote easy.

[tclawren]

VOTE: Llama

Case will come later today.

[LlamaFluff]

Study break! I also recommend that everyone reads Hobbesian theory which is what my large presentation is on, its fascinating stuff.

Jerbs did nothing regarding Glass, so there is the lack of interaction there, but that applies for most players so thats probably out the window.

Now, tcl comes in and positions Glass at a very nice null position. Im not exagerating about that at all, he read of Glass actually is "null". Now, moving into the next day we finally get a little interaction after he slightly mentions Glass and SSS early.

I am totally for this wagon.
VOTE: Glass
If you can explain to me how I am wrong I might consider unvoting.

tcl joins a Glass wagon, there is quite a big conditional here. Tcl gives him an immediate out at the end, by saying if he could explain he would unvote him. Now, this is compounded additonally by what appears to be presence of daytalk given the sample roles. With the use of backstage, tcl and Glass could quickly work out what a correct explaination would be, hazzard a guess to what the next tcl post contains here. Spoiler it has an unvote and is probably the biggest wolf-tell post he has

I understand where you are coming from with this. What you are saying is technically true, but people can sometimes forget that there is two scum teams, so I can't hold the unvote against him here. Also, I personally think that Llama was already considering voting for Krazy when DRK came in.

However, since you've explained yourself a bit more (I still disagree with you, btw) and the speed of this wagon, I will move my vote.

UNVOTE: Glass
VOTE: SSS

[/quote]

Boom.

Tcl jumps off of Glass and onto SSS because he has explained himself well. He also contribues a sudden change of read to wagon speed, remember that. This post continues with the following.

@Llama

What are your personal reasons for voting for glass? What do you find scummy about his play? Honestly right now, your wagon vote is looking more shady than his.

Play turns fast doesnt it? Day two was me vs Glass. Tcl decides that Glass is town for explaining himself, moves to SSS, and sets up this push on me which is a classic chainsaw setup. He is trying to attack me by attacking my vote on Glass by questioning its validity. This not only helps me go up over Glass if the move is ever needed, but could manage to pull me off of Glass, thus not needed to jump on a direct counterwagon if one ever occurs.

Next came a suprising turn of events. Glass is starting to lose the arguement and headed for a lynch, guess who shows up on the wagon immediately? If you guessed tcl you are completely right. Guess what happens almost instantly after that? Glass goes "oh no im caught" and self-votes.

This reads like it was planned to me more then anything else, a last ditch effort to get tcl some not-wolf points more then anything else. The timing of the two things looking back is just amazingly perfect. Even with all of this though, tcl is trying amazingly hard to try and keep his options open to jump to a SSS or Furc wagon.

Day three we have some amazingly strong fishing for the last mason, soon joined in by Toasty. As I showed, this does nothing but actually benifits the scum since it shows them exactly who is unlynchable, and if they mess up and hit a VT in an endgame (like this) there is confirmed town and I will take that to the bank any day of the week.

What is interesting though is tcl wont drop it

And just to make sure: @Furc: Are you just a regular townie? Your post wasn't as clear as the rest of ours regarding this. thanks. Regardless, could you tell us your reads? thanks.

This is what he is talking about in the middle of the very large debate between Toasty and myself. He actually is avoiding getting caught up in while continuing to try and figure out who the mason is by actually trying to get Furcolow, who according to his last post he doesnt think is scum, to claim. Very interesting as well is that he said he thought Toast and myself were scum, and we had claimed not mason. Why would town ever care which of Furc and SSS were mason here? Short answer is they wouldnt. Scum would love to know in order to optimize their kill however.

Finally tcl spends the remainder of the day just compliling data. He never really makes any real case on anyone, but is simply content to just kick back and try and get the town reads off of everyone.

For the kill, it gets into WIFOM heavily, but it makes perfect sense coming from tcl here if you look at what he looked at during the last day. I think he was entirely sure that Furc was actually mason here.

@Furc: Are you just a regular townie? Your post wasn't as clear as the rest of ours regarding this.
...
@Llama do you still think SSS is town now that he has claimed not mason?
...
My reads:
Furc-town
Toast: Wolf
Llama: town
Sss: Mafia

All of these point to thinking that the flip from Furc is going to be mason.

Not going to continue to wall post, but will respond to anything that tcl puts up for one cycle.

[tclawren]

I will respond to Llama's case later, but let me give a quick partial case of my own, with some handy links inserted for readability.

Day two was an absolute disaster for the wolves. First Llama goes mafia hunting and votes for me, then Crazy goes absolutely ballistic on him and rightfully declares Llama a wolf. Glass then sees that Llama is sinking and gets on the wagon for some townie points on weak ass reasoning (plus leaves the door open to jump on my wagon). I see Glass's bad vote, Crazy starts the wagon, I jump on, and then Llama seeing the tide of the game turning decides to make D2 an exercise in bussing.

Now while it's true that I unvoted Glass, here's what I consider the absolute proof that I am not Glass's partner. Do you really think that if I was partners with Glass that I would place him at L-1 and then have him self hammer? It just doesn't make any sense.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Ok, I have a good feeling I know how today is going to end up, but gonna look over a few things myself. looking forward to you guys replying to your cases on one another. I'm sure it'll come up, but Llama, why are you

not

partners with Glass? first off, night kill speculation.

Furc's reads were not really set in stone, only saying he thought tclaw was town, and said probably Llama town, and me as probably scum, by process of elimination. Person who benefits most from his death? probably me, but i'm not scum. null from this.

let's see everyone's reads from yesterday:

Let's get the reads from everyone. Llama and Toast have their reads out there, what about furc and sss.

My reads:
Furc-town
Toast: Wolf
Llama: town
Sss: Mafia

Llama's reads:
Furc: town
SSS: town
Toast: Wolf
Tcl: Mafia

Llama-scum could have killed Furc, one of his town reads. Also left alive would be me, who has felt bad about him the entire game, and tclaw, who thinks he is town and i was scum.
tclaw-scum would have killed Furc... one of his town reads. left alive is Llama, who thinks he is mafia, and me, who thinks he is town.
either way, the wolf left alive someone who thought them scummy, and someone who thinks they are town. not really helping me.

the only thing i'm wondering about the night kill is why Llama-scum would pick furc over me, given how skeptical Llama was about me claiming not mason. It seemed like he was still thinking I was mason despite the claim (btw, in your first post Llama, you said me and Crazy were town, good job picking out the masons).

so yeah, this didn't get me anywhere, but i guess it's useful to have the info repeated again.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm sure it'll come up, but Llama, why are you

not

partners with Glass?

Rhetorical or not?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

serious. like, tclaw gave what he said was proof he wasn't partners with glass, to help prove he's not wolf. you have any proof that you can't be partners with Glass, therefore, tclaw is wolf?

[LlamaFluff]

Deconstructive proofs really arent too useful in this game when you have the person provide their own since scum usually have a few purpose distancing posts.

Biggest is how into attacking me the second day Glass was. I was basically the only person that she payed attention to, there was no one else. Even when pressured a bit by others, she just dug into it more. Another tell there is that Glass was pushing me as mafia for a bit, which I dont think wolf would do to wolf, since its pushing them on reasoning that would immediately go away if other mafia got caught. It would make more sense if I was wolf for Glass to try and mafia hunt, so she could eliminate that point.

Even when Glass starts being able to vote people like Toast in the late day, we still ended up with him staying on me, which was the big reason I thought Toast was wolf, it made perfect sense for that pair given that he was treating me like not-wolf by the overly stubborn pushing.

So yeah, I think the day three interactions is the best one for that I can give. Glass was way too hard on me to be a partner to me, as multiple instances for moving came up and it never happened.