A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: That was hito.

[LimMePls]

@Everyone: Please pay attention to this, it's really pretty stunningly clear what's going on here:

And get this: throughout the game, despite pushing for hasdgfas, DGB always kept her original random-stage vote on LynchMePls, who she never tried to push. Only now she moved her vote to Locke, and between him and zoraster, I'm more confident of Locke being town.

Quick question – why so quick to assume Locke is town? Couldn't he possibly be scum of a faction different from DGB / Zoraster? Do you have reason to think we only have a single scum faction in a game this size?

I simply don't see where the scum reads on him are coming from. I'm leaning town on Locke, though it is not a strong read, his ISO is too short for that. If he belongs to any scum faction at all, I've not seen indication of that yet. I have no reason to believe there would be only one scum team either, in fact I find two more likely.

Oh, and I should probably explain why I think we only have one scum faction. Given the size of the game, I think scum factions would most likely have three members if there were two factions, four at most. We've had two Starks flip, both of them power roles. To balance that, the theoretical other scum faction should also have power roles. If factions had three members each, that would mean that the majority of the scum had powers, and if there were godfathers, there would be no room for goons at all. That is one thing. In addition, Brynden Tully seems to be a relatively obscure character, and if you had to pick three or four characters on the Stark side, I don't think he would make the cut. My conclusion is that there is only one main mafia faction, the Starks.

On D1, Feysal makes a comment that implies there is only 1 scum team. MOI, who having experienced ACoK and knowing that most games this size tend to multiple scum teams rightly questions him on why he is implying only 1 scum team. Feysal back tracks and tries to cover it up, basically saying "I don't think there is only 1 scum team, I just don't think he's scum". Then at the start of D2, bam Feysal is out and out saying he thinks there is only 1 scum team, something that he previously said wasn't likely when trying to cover up the fact that he hinted at there only being 1 scum team. Nevermind that two stark flips is NOT convincing evidence for only 1 mafia. Feysal knows something the rest of us don't. My guess is that he knows the stark team is large and thus there is only 1 scum team.

So Feysal is scum and should be lynched. TS' white knighting Feysal when I started to question him about his assertion that the Chesskid kill must be the Stark kill is also relevant and means a TS/Feysal team is not unlikely.

[MagnaofIllusion]

He's playing like Feysal-scum from Return to Liten. I have off-site experience with Feysal, but to my recollection he was town in all the games I played with him off site. His play here is too... disengaged (for lack of a better word).

This is why I asked. Because Feysal Scum from Liten clearly lurked and I’m seeing signs of that in [REDACTED] also. I was hoping your off-site experience with him would provide more meat to the meta.

Also LMP – regarding the One scum team theory I can definitely see it being suspicious being leaked Day 1. That said do you not think, based on the data that we have (3rd party lyncher role, two kills, no distinguishing flavour in the kills) that it looks more likely in the light of Day 2 that there is a single Mafia group?

Because players other than Feysal (including myself) have espoused it today.

That said I think Feysal is a very appealing NK target for a Vig or any SK wanting Town cred.

--

If this is your only case/defense on anyone, maybe you should try harder? Seriously, playing the 'someone didn't downgrade their suspicions of me when I'm cleared' isn't a town sentiment.

DGB, I've read you in ISO and played with you. You're better than this. Play harder.

Which is it? Locke’s been very forward (if not overwhelming with case presentation) that DGB isn’t playing up to snuff. And I would agree that I find his ‘mistakes’ today (not adjusting his thought process on Locke despite the flavor until prompted directly, his inability to comprehend how the Nomination process worked despite being in Clash) pretty bad. You seem to agree in your second sentence.

--

And here I thought answering questions aimed at other players was scummy...

Aha, love the sarcasm. That said there is a difference between LMP asking a direct question of Feysal and you jumping right in with your ‘assumptions’ and my addressing a response that reads as purely rhetorical you made to a danakillsu direct question. Had I answered dana’s question for you it would be an Apples to Apples comparison.

You're missing my point. What I'm saying is, you said that you suspected my stance was to back away from Sotty/Mina's stated suspicion. But obviously, you can't know whether or not that's true until Sotty/Mina actually post (since what I said was that I was delegating the reading of you to them). Surely it would be better to keep that idea under your hat until Mina or Sotty confirm or deny your suspicions?

No, because I’m not going to let your post disappear into the depths of a Large Theme thread while we waited on your erstwhile companions. You three are a single slot – I’m not obligated to not address what I see as inconsistencies or play made by one with potential scum motivation just because you are ‘deferring’ your read to the others.

Maclock and VP made quite a bit of hay in Clash by using the dividing up their interactions and using alternating views to distance from bad positions. They were scum, for the record.

What's to address? You're a player that I don't think I can read accurately, so I refrained from weighing in on you and left that task to Mina and Sotty. The only reason I brought it up in thread at all is because I wanted to give my spiel on everyone, and Mina and Sotty's reads were both pretty stale at that point.

What’s to address? If you have a scum read on a player you should address it. That’s Mafia 101. And your original statement clearly stated you had a scum read on me since my playstyle dictates I look like scum regardless to you.

[LimMePls]

Also LMP – regarding the One scum team theory I can definitely see it being suspicious being leaked Day 1. That said do you not think, based on the data that we have (3rd party lyncher role, two kills, no distinguishing flavour in the kills) that it looks more likely in the light of Day 2 that there is a single Mafia group?

Because players other than Feysal (including myself) have espoused it today.

That said I think Feysal is a very appealing NK target for a Vig or any SK wanting Town cred.

Sure, but he hinted at it on D1, then when confronted over it, completely back tracked it (which was a lie and should be grounds for lynching all on its own, because if you look at his initial words its clear he was implying that DGB/zoraster interactions meant LL was town). That it turned out to be more likely given N1 only STRENGTHENS the argument that he had information on D1 the rest of us didn't.

[LimMePls]

@MOI: Also, why is Feysal better for a vig than lynching? We have pretty clear meta and in game behavioral reasons to think he is scum. While I certainly sympathize with the TS wagon, why is it so much better than Feysal?

[Thor665]

Proddodge. Reading and not commenting until I have 100% understanding of gamestate like good robot.

[Shadow1psc]

Proddodge. Reading and not commenting until I have 100% understanding of gamestate like good robot.

That's a good robot. Read up.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Hey, guess what? I'm feeling better now Even better news? I have just finished catching up! I'm up to date for the first time in over two weeks. Sorry to come back and find all this pressure of course, but I can understand most of it.

I very much dislike the Sotty-head’s questioning of my Benmage raise. It feels very much like probing / nitpicking looking for any justification for suspicion. Furthermore the back-peddling done when I questioned why she didn’t actually read the links provided before stating her opinion doesn’t reflect well on the whole line of questioning, IMO.

Well you're kinda right. I like to poke people, I

really

like to poke people I think will be hard to read. I thought I saw somewhat of a contradiction with your VI/benmage deal. I poked you on it, you showed me some games. When I made a follow up post (so not to fall behind in the game at the time. Somewhat ironic I know) I hadn't read the links but had other issues I wanted to voice so I did. Sure I could have ignored my gut when I made that post and just waited to read the games, but I like natural flowing back and forth.

Once I looked over the games I realized that maybe you were being truthful with me and that it is a point I should drop. So I admitted fault and backed away, or back tracked as you like to say. But what else would you have me do? Keep pushing something I now saw was faulty reasoning? That's just silly. I backed away because I was wrong, it's really as simple as that.

As of right now I have a strong town read on you for your reactions post Has' kill and your pressure on Magua among other things. I also can understand your vote on us. Basically your tone feels much more genuine these days I am comfortable with you, even if you're not with us.

Do I wish I had the time to check the links before airing out my gut. Oh yeah. Nothing I can do about that right now though.

I have to go and cook some supper but I plan to be back later and finish my ISOs. I'm probably going to take a look at the voters on us as well. So I only have real issues with Magua and Zdenek. The latters vote in particular was really weak.

Stray thought as I leave: Kast has been really lurky as well but hasn't been mentioned by anyone. If there is only one scum team he is likely a member.

~Sotty

[Feysal]

Incoming catchup wall.

Lets not get crazy on the flavor. Brynden Tully is a badass if you ask me... But uhh yeah. I'm thinking one scum team.

I wouldn't know, I've never read the books. Based on what I've read from wiki pages, I thought that Brynden Tully would be

relatively

obscure however, meaning there are more prominent members of the Stark family I'd expect to see in a small scumteam.

Bullet the Raivann case.

I wrote about Raivann in detail in my post #811. In short, my problem with Raivann was never about his vote on xvart, or his behavior during the end of last day. It was about the fakeness of the cases he was pushing. I first noticed him replying twice to a post of mine in quick succession, and he seemed to inexplicably find it scummy the second time, but not the first. Later when I ISO read him, I noticed he had done the same to Song. He voted first, pretty much at random, and then began to construct a case around his vote. His case in post #279 was ridiculous. He arbitrarily decided certain phrases to be scummy and sheeped a point against Song from one of his scum reads. He had one fair point about Song liking Benmage despite not understanding what he was talking about, and somehow that resulted in "a quest to lynch Song". This does not look like scumhunting to me. It looks like twisting the words of others to make them appear scummy and have them mislynched.

@Feysal, Ghostlin, Bunnylover:

Do you think diddin was bussing Raivann through most of D1?

I think it is possible. There was significant suspicion on diddin, and he had a power role that would've been very important for the scum team. I could see him bussing a partner who was becoming a liability to boost his own town credit and save his power role.

This stinks of inside information.

Really, why? When MoI asked me on the first day, I said I thought two scum teams were likely. After gaining new information from flips, I no longer think that.

1) Why was this a soft-claim to Tywin? Tyrion had been the hand as well, so it was more just a soft claim to his role. I thought he might be setting up a fakeclaim, since I was of the opion that he was scum.

I was not aware Tyrion had ever been Hand of the King. I remembered that someone had interpreted it as Tywin (Benmage in post #139), I checked whether Tywin had indeed been the Hand from a wiki, and believed that was who Chesskid had meant. He certainly never corrected Benmage on that. I think the scum may have believed it too.

2) Are you suggesting that Chesskid was the Stark kill?

Of course. Who else? Unless you're suggesting we had a lucky doctor or role blocker, the Starks must have killed Chesskid. My theory is that they thought he was Tywin, and killed him thinking he would be a power role.

Changing my vote due to the Hand's wishes.

So you are voting me only because Benmage called me scummy, and he has never even explained why?

This is an unacceptable lynch for TODAY. Look elsewhere. We can reconsider it tomorrow. But for today he gets a pass. I've already said this. So either lynch me, or look into the many people I've listed for today. Otherwise this waste of fucking time is anti-town.

Ok, I'll bite. I've seen you tell several people who are acceptable people to lynch and who are not. Well guess what? You were elected as the Hand of the King, not as the King himself. You're trusted to be town, but you're not confirmed town, and even if you were, you're not a better scumhunter than the rest of the town combined. You don't get to dictate who we're allowed to suspect and vote, or where we're allowed to hunt for scum. And you sure as hell don't get to call disagreeing with you anti-town, when you haven't even bothered to explain your reads.

If you think that the town is going to follow you blindly, think again.

Don't be a fucking obstinate prick.

Same to you. Do you even realize that by telling people what to do you're diminishing the information we could gain from their actions? If everyone nominated Setael because you told them to, analyzing that wagon would be worthless.

Scum vibes from Feysal's post 387. He defends fire and ice then says "I continue to have a scummy feel about diddin. However I will not put a vote there yet, sorry Chesskid. I will finish reading the thread first, then vote, and I will have to ISO read him too." He then admits he hasn't done any scum hunting and then buddies up to shadow and apologizes in a way that makes me feel icky inside.

So? Are you saying that I should have voted diddin just because Chesskid asked me to, before I'd read enough to make an informed decision? Also, I was not buddying. I'd mentioned before that I had a town read on Shadow, though he had done little scumhunting. That made him jump, so I thought I should clarify that I was not criticizing him for it.

Feysal's post 538 looks sketchy after diddin's flip with the "And from diddin" stuck in there.

I can definitely see a scum buddy wanting to cover his bases by giving that little honorable mention (while staying off the wagon) where it looked at the time like diddin could have ended up as the D1 lynch.

In fact, an ISO of Feysal shows the only things he said about diddin at all were these 2 plus the first thing he said which was, "I have little love for diddin after his attack on Magua for his "contradiction". That's it. About the perfect amount for a scum buddy wanting to look clean if diddin's lynch goes through, but not wanting to push the wagon at all.

I had a scummy feeling from diddin, but I had actual cases on DGB and Raivann. I voted the one who seemed scummiest at the time, and who I still find scummy now. I invite you to find fault with that if you can.

@Feysal: What made you so sure before that there were 2 scum factions?

Nothing. It was a theory based on the game size, and the fact that there were two scum factions in Clash of Kings. I dropped that theory as soon as there was information that suggested a single scum faction.

I would very much like Feysal to give opinions on people *other* than Raivann.

I have a number of town reads, nothing really surprising about them. DGB was my other suspect on day one, and seeing how sporadic her posting has become, I have to wonder about her. She has been on a massive posting spree in another game I'm playing, which makes her absence here doubly strange. DTMaster is a third, I've seen him catch up real quick when replacing in, and he really is taking his time here. I don't have other major suspicions at the moment.

For those who are not voting Twilight Sparkle,

I'd like to know if it's because a) you think they're town, or b) you think they're null-to-scum, but you have a larger scumread on someone else.

Mostly it's been the second reason, but I feel better about them after reading Mina's recent posts. Hearing about the internal dialogue within the hydra sounded townish, and I'd like to hear more from them when they're back to full strength.

B. Feysal is playing like Feysal scum to me. His focus on Raivann in particular, but his play yesterday in regards to diddin as well.

Your only experience with me as scum is from a single game, The Return to Liten, where I was lynched for failing to bus a partner and after being caught red-handed by a tracker. I suppose you'd expect me to be a major force for the town, and when I'm not you see me as scum. In fact, due to real-life distractions, I've fallen behind sitewide and got prods in all my games. You should know that, you're in one of them. I've still got 15 pages to catch up on in another game.

Also, what about my Raivann case don't you agree with? As for diddin, I find that worthless. Seriously, you can't call someone scummy for having a correct scumread just because they were voting someone else they had a better case on. And considering that you were also voting Raivann, in fact you started that wagon, I don't know what you're suspecting me for.

He's playing like Feysal-scum from Return to Liten. I have off-site experience with Feysal, but to my recollection he was town in all the games I played with him off site. His play here is too... disengaged (for lack of a better word). Feysal is a ferocious player when he's town. I've seen him write short novel length posts analyzing MULTIPLE players to find the needles in the haystack. His play here reads like he already has the answers, so he isn't searching.

What I've got here is a case of too many and too large haystacks. The town games you refer to never had a thousand posts even by the time they ended, let alone by day two. Also, I had more time to spend, and I was playing only one game at a time. I don't have the time or the patience to comment on everything and everyone in a game this large.

I think MOI was on to something here and Feysal backtracked it. It looks to me like Feysal has inside knowledge of the setup of the game. When confronted here he had no choice but to change it to "I simply don't see where the scum reads come from". But what he had said earlier implied that DGB/zoraster interactions somehow made Locke town.

Apparently you think that having a town read implies inside knowledge of there being only one scum team. Really, I simply had a town read on Locke, based on some comments of his I liked. I never said anything about DGB's or zoraster's interactions making Locke town. I said that between zoraster and Locke, I was more confident of Locke being town, in other words, I found Locke more townish than zoraster, who I found scummy.

That said I think Feysal is a very appealing NK target for a Vig or any SK wanting Town cred.

Being night killed would enable me to focus more on my remaining games, but dying without having claimed would make me unhappy.

There, finally caught up again. Some thoughts not already in this wall:

I see that after Benmage declared he would governor Raivann if necessary, some players who suspected Raivann jumped to Thor. Hello? Raivann was completely tunneled on Thor's predecessor for most of day one. Do you think that was bussing? I don't. If Raivann flips scum, I say Thor is probably town, and vice versa. Jumping from voting one to voting the other makes no sense to me.

I'm somewhat annoyed by what Benmage is doing. He has barely explained any of his reads, and instead of making cases on people, he keeps asking others to present them. Case in point, I have no idea why I am on his scum list.

[Magua]

Because I am leery of people who say "Policy lynching a VI D1 is the smart move" when there's more than one VI.

Why does the presence of more than VI make a difference?

The purpose of PLing a VI is to raise the level of the town-play -- if the VI is an anomaly in terms of skill, lynching them raises the average play of those who are left.

However, if there are multiple VIs, it is not feasible to lynch all of them as a matter of policy -- town does not have that many lynches to throw away. Lynching only one or two of them is not as advantageous because they are not anomalies in terms of play level -- there are many at their level -- so there will not be the accompanying raise in the average play. Finally, if there are multiple VIs, chances of a policy lynch actually hitting a scum VI goes down, because it is easy for scum to direct the policy lynch onto a town-VI instead.

I'll answer this since I still think it is possible that they might be on a team together. I'll have to go back and check to see when diddin started pushing Raivann because if it is early enough he could have thought the wagon wouldn't go anywhere (when compared to other wagons) or if it is late enough he could be hedging his bets and trying to buy some town cred if Raivann is a simple goon (compared to his tracker). It also isn't out of the question that Raivann could be self aligned SK. Raivann's failure to provide legitimate grounds for the aSoIF/Thor votes is incredibly untown.

I'll be upfront: I don't care if Raivann is self-aligned SK at this point. I care about hitting Stark. If it was an SK that hit diddin last night, I want Stark to have to worry about finding and killing them.

However, the next person who says, "A Sotty, Mina, and hitogoroshi hydra would be MUCH more protown than this" gets throttled through their computer screen.

A Sotty, Mina, and hitogoroshi hydra would be MUCH more protown than this. No, I'm not just being an ass. You should. I maintain everything that I said in post #1050. At that point (which is before your post #1060), you had posted zero scumreads. Zero. Your vote on Zoraster was *after* he claimed, and was 10th on the wagon.

Your #1060, where hito gives reads on everyone, I will summarize:
danakillsu: No direct read. Scum if Mikujin is town.
Raivann (by way of diddin): Let's look at connections! diddin flipping scum means Raivainn could be scum...or maybe town!
DGB: Probably town
GreyICE/DTMaster: Town.
Feysal: Town.
hasdgfas: Town.
Kast: Null.
Locke: Town...or maybe SK!
LynchMePls: Null to null-to-scum.
MagnaOfIllusion: Null.
Magua: Town...or maybe scum!
Mikujin/Setael: Null.
Nexus: Town.
Percy/Ghostlin: Null.
Shadow: Null.
ASoIaF/Thor: Scum.
xvart: Null-to-town.
Zdenek: Town.

So, again, my problem in a nutshell is in that list, you have a single strong scumread. On the other hand, you have fence-sitting positions aplenty. You say your three favorite lynches are Thor, Raivann, and danakillsu, but for both Raivann and danakillsu, you are flippy-floppy about whether they're scum.

Then you say your second tier is Kast, LynchMePls, Nexus, and Mikujin. Your reads on them, from just up above, are null, null-to-scum, *town*, and null. You including Nexus really rubs me the wrong way, considering what you said about him just above.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

I would like more on this. Especially the change from the townread that was posted in #1060.

@Feysal:

:@Feysal: What made you so sure before that there were 2 scum factions?

Nothing. It was a theory based on the game size, and the fact that there were two scum factions in Clash of Kings. I dropped that theory as soon as there was information that suggested a single scum faction.

But your D1 post indicate you believe that there's only one scumteam, not two, since you call Locke town based on his DGB/Zoraster interaction. If you thought there was more than one team, DGB pushing on Locke would not mean he was town, even if she was scum.

[Zdenek]

Ghostlin, I understand that there are plenty of examples of Raivann sheeping. What I wanted explained was why you felt that nominating Raivann would change his play?

Zdenek

Gets major points for pointing out the dindin-bunnylover connection in his ISO 12.

Overall, I'm getting a decent town-read on him.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

Cognitive dissonance, hydra-schizophrenia, or softly attacking me as being "most likely scum on the wagon" while having a decent town-read on me. You also change your read of Nexus. Magua's also pointed these things out. I feel that you are adopting convenient reads rather than ones you actually believe in.

Locke is pretty much confirmed town, although he could be a serial killer.

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

Stray thought as I leave: Kast has been really lurky as well but hasn't been mentioned by anyone. If there is only one scum team he is likely a member.

Why would Kast cease to be scummy if there is more than one scum team?

[danakillsu]

And this is why you unvoted *Mikujin*?

Yes, since Benmage asked me to. I have a hard time believing you don't already understand this.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 2.11

Raivann (1) Feysal

Twilight Sparkle (6) Magua, MagnaofIllusion, Benmage, Raivann, Zdenek, Hasdgfas

Bunnylover (3) Ghostlin, xvart, Danakillsu
Setael (1) DrippingGoofball
danakillsu (1) Kast
Ghostlin (1) DTMaster
Thor665 (5) Twilight Sparkle, Locke Lamora, Shadow1psc, Nexus, Bunnylover
Feysal (2) LynchMePls, Setael


Not voting (1) Thor665

With 21 alive it takes 11 to lynch. No majority at deadline and there'll be no lynch.

Envoy to the Eyrie

[/u]

Setael (2) Magua, Danakillsu

Bunnylover (4) MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, Nexus, hasdgfas

Raivann (3) Bunnylover, Ghostlin, xvart
Zdenek (1) Kast
Danakillsu (1) Twilight Sparkle
Thor665 (2) Zdenek, Benmage
Nexus (2) Raivann, Setael
xvart (1) DTMaster

Not nominating (5) Shadow1psc, DrippingGoofball, Locke Lamora, Thor665, Feysal

With 21 alive it takes 11 to sent someone to the Eyrie

* Eddard Stark a top tier mod who's very good at votecounts.
* No one due a prod (Will edit if that is incorrect)
* Kast is on V/la. As is Nexus.
* Any mistakes in the VC point them out
*The deadline can be found here.

[Feysal]

But your D1 post indicate you believe that there's only one scumteam, not two, since you call Locke town based on his DGB/Zoraster interaction. If you thought there was more than one team, DGB pushing on Locke would not mean he was town, even if she was scum.

I guess I need to be clearer on this: I have never said that I would find Locke town based on any interaction with DGB or Zoraster. I had a town read on him independent of either of them, though not very strong, based on some of his posts that I liked. Part of why I found DGB and zoraster scummy then was because they were pushing Locke for no apparent reason, but that was not what gave me the town read on Locke.

The only time I ever mentioned Locke, DGB and zoraster in the same sentence was in my post #538. "Only now she moved her vote to Locke, and between him and zoraster, I'm more confident of Locke being town." Nothing there about what I found Locke townish for.

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

The last person I saw making this argument was town, and also wrong. He went on to mislynch the player accused of undermining an obvtown player, and the obvtown player was indeed scum. In other words, no one is above suspicion, at least not reasonable suspicion.

---

My vote is clearly achieving nothing, so it is time I changed it. Problem is, I'm inclined to believe both of our main wagons are on town. My read of Twilight Sparkle is improving lately, and I consider Thor probable town due to Raivann's focus on him. Besides, both are being suspected for issues not directly related to their play, Twilight Sparkle for not living up to expectations from a hydra with three strong players, two of them on V/LA, and Thor for posting without being entirely caught up after replacing in. Yes, I saw the inconsistency regarding Zdenek from Twilight Sparkle, but we can do better than that.

Vote: DrippingGoofball
Nominate: Raivann

Since DGB is on Benmage's list of acceptable lynches, this might even have a chance of succeeding. My case on DGB follows.

Early on, Locke voted DGB for not giving her usual declarations of who was town or scum, and for not following up on her LMP vote. In response DGB declared him scum, with no further arguments, and never backed down from that read until it was pointed out how irrational it was after the zoraster lynch. She also continued not to follow up on her LMP vote, but did not vote anyone else either. Her suspicion of Locke looks like pure OMGUS without actually committing to a vote. Next, MoI noted that DGB was still voting LMP, although she did not list him as scum in her initial lists. In response DGB added him to the list, but still did not push him. The way DGB has clung to these two reads looks like scum striving for consistency, especially the way DGB added LMP to her suspect list.

DGB said in her early lists that hasdgfas could be faking his restriction, but did nothing to push him until Magua had voiced the same opinion. Then she started her push, but still did not commit to a vote. She only switched to Locke near the end of the day when it was meaningless, and then to zoraster.

DGB has done barely any scumhunting on the first day, and none on this second. She's had three posts over the last three days. Over those same days, in another game, she has posted three

pages

of aggressive scumhunting. The contrast to here could not be more obvious. She has taken to lurking.

On top of all this, there is the weirdness of how her read on Locke has developed.

Gonna help the scum bus.

VOTE: Locke Lamora

DGB - you didn't unvote, also, I know you've been talking about a zoraster lynch and have been sidetracked by grey, but why the sudden change off LL?

I don't need to unvote.

The LL wagon is not going anywhere. Had the atmosphere in the game been more normal earlier on, I probably would have voted someone else at some point. I haven't paid LL attention at all for a while anyway.

Considering that Locke was apparently one of her main scum reads, it is mighty strange not to pay attention to him. And of course, after this DGB still calls Locke scum at the start of day two, ignoring everything about what the zoraster lynch taught us.

As a bonus, DGB was the only person to defend Raivann when the wagon on him was going strong.

Raivann is exhibiting typical townie thought processes.

Of course, when LMP asked her to show where, she could not find it any more.

[Benmage]

Boys...when several females from work invite you out...you go out.

I'm going drinking(fuck the fact im on antibiotics). So gimmie 24 hours to set shit straight.

(

MODs

was it aCoK that I picked up this hot bartender and was asked how hot???...anyways I'll let ya know how it goes)

Mod~ Yep that was ACOK, good luck

[Twilight Sparkle]

Spoiler tags because there's quotewalls up in this bitch.

Spoiler: Response to Magua

So, again, my problem in a nutshell is in that list, you have a single strong scumread. On the other hand, you have fence-sitting positions aplenty. You say your three favorite lynches are Thor, Raivann, and danakillsu, but for both Raivann and danakillsu, you are flippy-floppy about whether they're scum.

dana is an associative case - calling it "flippy-floppy" is all kinds of misleading. When fence-sitting is used as a scumtell, it's done so in the sense of "well X is leaving both options open." I've clearly defined my thoughts on dana; the fact that I would change my mind if Mijukin flipped scum is prudence, not fence-sitting.

As for Raivann, I think there's a good chance he was bussed by dindin, but he can't be scum with my top scumread and there's dissent between Mina and myself as to the strength of the case. So yes, I'm not 'certain' he's scum, because a Thor scumflip virtually clears him. What's so goddamn scummy about this? I constantly think "what evidence would disprove my convictions?", and I often share my findings. To not do this is, honestly, pretty stupid.

Then you say your second tier is Kast, LynchMePls, Nexus, and Mikujin. Your reads on them, from just up above, are null, null-to-scum, *town*, and null. You including Nexus really rubs me the wrong way, considering what you said about him just above.

Here is what I said about Nexus:

Not too much out of Nexus. That being said, his ISO 7 seems to me to be pretty townish – I don't see scum being so prolific. He abandons his first two votes for very good reasons.

Very curious to see how he votes when he returns from V/LA.

So, not much content out of him, but he has a townish post. And I'm watching his return play.

Yes, despite the fact that he had one townie post, I still think he could be scum. I haven't seen much of him. You may notice that the list has three people who haven't posted much, and one person I had bad gut vibes on (lmp). I think that at least one of those four is probably scum.

There's a reason I didn't just say "town, town, scum" for my reads, as you did in my summary. I use

whole sentences

to get my thoughts across. Just because your summary of my reads use the same word for what I think about GreyICE and what I think about Nexus doesn't mean that's how it is. GreyICE/DTM is, "almost certainly town." Nexus is, "like some of what I saw, but haven't seen enough to feel comfortable."

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

I would like more on this. Especially the change from the townread that was posted in #1060.

Read the bottom of 1060:

As a reminder, Mina is still gone (though returning today, I think.) Sotty is going to try to catch up tomorrow.

This was 100% my personal reading of the game.

What you quoted was from Mina's catchup.

Spoiler: Response to zdenek

Cognitive dissonance, hydra-schizophrenia, or softly attacking me as being "most likely scum on the wagon" while having a decent town-read on me. You also change your read of Nexus. Magua's also pointed these things out. I feel that you are adopting convenient reads rather than ones you actually believe in.

The second. I clearly labeled when my thoughts were exclusively mine. Those were Mina's. She hasn't yet had the time to outline her theory in QT, either - I'll make sure to chime in with my thoughts when she posts it.

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

Trying to undermine confirmed town is scummy.

Point out that someone being treated as confirmed town isn't actually confirmed town - and specifically including the criterion to look for that might disprove a LL confirmation - is what we in the business call

really fucking important.

Your extremely careful language on this ("who most people are percieving?") needs some elaboration. What do

you

think about LL?

Why would Kast cease to be scummy if there is more than one scum team?

I'm not Sotty, but I'm still reasonably comfortable fielding this one.

If kast was scum, but there was a second scumteam, the second scumteam would probably be taking at least some measure to groom his mislynch. The tell that "this lurker is getting a free pass - it seems like there is a significant group of players not interesting in pursuing his lynch" only works with ONE such group. With two, one scumgroup might not want to pressure kast, but the one without him would just see him as another easy-shot townie.

No, because I’m not going to let your post disappear into the depths of a Large Theme thread while we waited on your erstwhile companions. You three are a single slot – I’m not obligated to not address what I see as inconsistencies or play made by one with potential scum motivation just because you are ‘deferring’ your read to the others.

This isn't about being a hydra. What I'm saying is, you're calling it a scumtell because of what you

suspected

would happen; but why not wait and see what

actually

happens instead of calling it right away?

What’s to address? If you have a scum read on a player you should address it. That’s Mafia 101. And your original statement clearly stated you had a scum read on me since my playstyle dictates I look like scum regardless to you.

I don't always find it necessary to post my gut scum reads, because my gut is shitty and I'd rather just use it as a loose guide and look for something more substantial. This is doubly true when I know that my gut scum read is based off of something that is null for you.

If you're curious, the specific thing that pinged my gut was the Lite-Brite comment (well, that whole argument, but that's a handy keyword for it) to GreyICE. I think that anyone who haughtily refuses requests to be more readable is very likely scum. But from what I've seen of you, you'd do that regardless of alignment.

Yes, since Benmage asked me to. I have a hard time believing you don't already understand this.

I understand that. What I'm curious about is:

Either way, I can't figure out which it is, so I'm going to trust my townread and hope to simply incapacitate my main scumread for the night while lynching my secondary scum read.

Miijukin is not suddenly not your main scumread nor your secondary scum read. Certainly I can understand cooperating with Benmage, but I'm not understanding how you being unable to vote for Mijukin suddenly made him two slots (or more?) less scummy.

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: -hito. man I suck at signing posts

[Raivann]

@MoI- Ok fine I'll answer your disingenuous question- No, I wasn't scared. I wanting to know and maybe put in my 2 cents.
Why did you kill chesskid? He wasn't that scary, no-one was really listening to him, and I told ya he was vanilla.
I can ask blah questions and appear to really be in need of the response too!

[Bunnylover]

Disliking the recent post by LMP.
Twilight Sparkle is a Knight in shining white armor!
All TS did was answered a question that was asked at someone else. Never knew that was a tell of some sort. Especially since the answer was very obviously.
I'm just confused as to how this makes TS a Knight and give Scummy vibes?

Your comments on Feysal are blah. Backtracking I can kinda see where your getting that from. But from what I've read, this is how I processed it: "DGB is scum. Between Zoraster and LL: LL is townier then Zoraster." He doesn't compare DGB/Zoraster, so how exactly is that saying their is only one scum team? Should everyone never have any town reads because their are two scum team? No.

To me its seems like your trying to appear scum hunting, while you aren't. Your just trying to make things bigger then they are.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I see Hito has expanded on a few things in my absence and I am happy with his explanations.

Twilight Sparkle (6) Magua, MagnaofIllusion, Benmage, Raivann, Zdenek, Hasdgfas

Looking at this I'm comfortable in spiting the six people in half. People who's votes I don't have an issue with and those I do.

MoI
Benmage
Cow

MoI's suspicions have had a logical townie like progression. It started early yesterday with his response to my questioning and has just built from there. Post 1170 is detailed reasoning for his suspicion and it reads genuine to me.

I'm not a fan of Benmage's bullying of other players but I have come to realize that is his meta. My experience with scumBenmage is him not being anywhere near as forceful or as brash as he has been in his game. Plus even with his governorship he has given the town a relatively large list to lynch from.

Looking at his ISO though it hard to pin down one or two reasons as to why he is voting us. A lot of his posting is rhetoric to get players to listen to him and follow him. I'd appreciate clarification as to why he suspects us, but he mostly gets a pass because I don't see ScumBen being so balls to the wall.

Cow was a player we had early suspicions of but his vigging pretty much wipes that away. He only votes us after pressure from Ben and I can't blame him for that. The fact I can see when and why he started suspecting us also makes me feel better (Here)

That leaves us with the other three:

Magua
Raivann
Zdenek

Magua

I don't like much of Magua's posting, it gives me the creepers. He also likes to talk about theory which makes him look busy while doing nothing. His exchange with Zor over the governor sticks out here and this is where he first starts to express suspicion of us. He kept taking passive aggressive swipes at us after all three heads made it clear we didn't value the governorship to mean much of anything. After I call him on this then he is on our case. Timing felt weak then and still does now.

Rest of day one we are constantly mentioned as one of his scum reads. From what I can tell it is because of what he said in post 615 where he said we hadn't been scum hunting. We certainly weren't number one scum hunter yesterday, but there were other slots who were doing little that get no attention. He justifies this later by saying there is scum on xtoxm's town list. Alright... But that is a pretty weak lead at this point.

Starts day two by voting for us. Really it is a pretty easy vote for him. He's right, we haven't done anything but what about Kast, Nexus, LMP (at this point, he has picked up since), Zdenek, Setael (ditto LMP), Thor or DTMaster? I'm not seeing the legit scum hunting that is present with MoI, it's opportunistic.

I won't rant like Mina, but the “Sotty, Hito + Mina should = Obvtown 24/7” rhetoric we're getting from him is just bullshit. Life happens, it's not like we have been active lurking we have literally been away from the thread. This line of attack is exceptionally weak and it spells bad mojo for Magua when it is his key point for attacking us.

I see no further explanation as to why we are his top read over any of the other players I listed. I see him pressuring other players to vote us, I see him out right stating we're scum, but other than that... He has no real case. I'm getting the strong sense that he is sheeping MoI and Benmage, using them both as a shield for his pressure on us. It's bogus.

Raivann

I had forgotten he was voting for us. His case is “Well they agreed with my Fire and Ice vote but now I am their number one suspect” Counter point, people can and will, change their minds. So what? I'm seeing some weak justification about Scum Mina and something Hito posted apparently being a scum perspective. Very underwhelming really and smacks a little of OMGUS. Not as horrible as Magua or Zdenek however

Zdenek

Lurky background player. Had a little to say about us yesterday, we got his RVS vote and he even raised us at one point, but chose to go with Benmage in the end. Then suddenly it is day two and he is agreeing with MoI about us

I agree with MoI that Twilight Sparkle's use of soft accusations against him is scummy.
MoI, since Zoraster's flip, what are your opinions of Nexus and Dana?

No elaboration that he even knows what soft accusations MoI is refering. This gave me the strong feeling that he was regurgitating MoI's read for sheeping purposes. Otherwise we would have seen at least a little explanation on what we did that was scummy.

Twilight, could you explain this:

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

I find the arguments by Magua, benmage and MoI against Twilight Sparkle to be the most convincing ones so far, and I agree with them. I also strongly dislike Thor's play for reasons that have been pointed out by others (not reading the thread, not scum hunting), so

Vote Twilight Sparkle
Nominate Thor

Asks us an obvious question before more sheeping language to latch onto MoI. I have no clue if he even understands the case MoI is presenting on us at this point or what. He is just latching onto the reasoning with what feel very much like, empty words.

I really want to see the case on us in Zdenek's own words as soon as possible.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

Cognitive dissonance, hydra-schizophrenia, or softly attacking me as being "most likely scum on the wagon" while having a decent town-read on me. You also change your read of Nexus. Magua's also pointed these things out. I feel that you are adopting convenient reads rather than ones you actually believe in.

No, there is no softly attacking you. We believe you are probscum opportunisticly jumping on us.

Also noting once again the use of the phrase “softly attacking” more MoI mirroring.

I'm going to move our nomination;

Nominate: Zdenek

I still very much like our Thor vote. Zdenek and Magua are other scum reads. I wanted to put Feysal in there as well, but he has posted a juicy wall that I haven't got round to yet. So tomorrow I will be spending time looking over the case on him.

For now, bed.

[Twilight Sparkle]

^ Sotty

[Magua]

I'll be brief:

Explain "Magua is sheeping MoI and Benmage" with the fact that I'm the first on your wagon, and I was the first to call you out yesterday.

Explain why you should be held to the same scumhunting standards as, eg, Raivann or Bunnylover.

Explain the belief that Thor + Raivann cannot be scum together (#1060 / #1108) with your vote for Thor and placing Raivann in the "issues with vote" category.

Explain why you have no issues with hasdgfas voting you.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I know that was for Sotty but I'll take a couple:

Explain the belief that Thor + Raivann cannot be scum together (#1060 / #1108) with your vote for Thor and placing Raivann in the "issues with vote" category.

There's no rule saying that all of your scumreads have to be on a scumteam together. It's sloppy to clear people as town based off of flips that haven't happened yet.

We think Thor has a very large chance of flipping scum, we think Raivann has a fairly large chance of flipping scum, and a scumflip on one virtually confirms the other as town. There's no contradiction here.

Explain why you have no issues with hasdgfas voting you.

Almost-certaintly-town cow was pressured by probably-town-Benmage to put his vote somewhere more productive and he did. There are worse things.

Though that being said, you did remind me that cow posted without answering my question. Cow, I think you missed this in my wall:

Scum are less likely to realize that scum would not kill members of their own faction. *nods* or *shakes head*?

[hasdgfas]

Though that being said, you did remind me that cow posted without answering my question. Cow, I think you missed this in my wall:

Scum are less likely to realize that scum would not kill members of their own faction. *nods* or *shakes head*?

*slaps self in head*
*taps side of head*
*points at LynchMePls*

*shakes head*

[Setael]

All the time I have for this thread has been spent reading it. I do want to unvote after Feysal's last post and remove him to the backburner for the present.

unvote, vote: Nexus

Welcome back from sick V/LA!

unnominate, nominate: bunnylover