Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[Setael]

Your last post just cemented it (and also made me pretty sure you know Saint is town).

Explain how you get this from ICE's post.

Just saw this again looking back over the thread. I answered it in 648 but without referencing your question. Let me know if it's not clear.

[neko2086]

mb flipping town obviously is not as helpful as if he were to flip scum. But, having exhausted that possible reason to think Saint might be town, I feel more confident in Saint-scum. I'm under the impression (a gut read from recent actions until I can go back and see if it checks out) that there could be a Saint-implosion-swiftstrike connection

I don't think my vote on Saint should be that much of a surprise, anyway. It's clearly not

only

to get a response. I'm well aware he's now at L-2. Is this a problem?

I think until I can figure out if I really believe Saint is the best lynch for today, my vote is more useful on his wagon than anywhere else at the moment, and certainly more helpful than not being anywhere

[ICEninja]

Swift, I'm sorry. I meant to include that in another post but forgot to.

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help. If he is indeed a mason and is cleared by a mason buddy, then scum has no choice but to night kill him as he'll be a town aligned player that town won't be lynching. This would then prevent scum from night killing one of the people who are genuinely helping town.

Setael, I liked your reasons because I like the information a Saint lynch gives. I said something similar about implosion, but I've found implosion scummy anyway. I also like the idea of lynching Saint. However, you found Saint scummy for all of a page or two, when you said he was town yesterday. I like your reasons, but they aren't good enough considering YOUR situation. Its a double standard because I found him scummy yesterday where you found him town yesterday.

[ICEninja]

(and entertaining—I actually LOLed at his redaction of Saint’s words at the bottom of #637)

I actually really appreciate this. I usually put on a very serious and logical face when I play mafia, but more of my true self showed through in that post. It was a bit out of character, but I was going for a laugh.

[Setael]

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help.

Please provide examples.

[Nexus]

Votecount the Nineteenth:

Saint (4): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen, ICEninja, neko2086
nameless (3): Empking, Zdenek, Saint
implosion (1): Darth Yoshi
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike
ICEninja (1): Setael

Not voting: implosion

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. The deadline is at 9am (GMT) on the 21st March 2011.

[Empking]

Emp-- earlier you said you were still leaning town on Saint, now you say either he or nameless needs to be lynched. Why the sudden change in reads, when you seemed so positive he was town yesterday?

I still am leaning town on him but I think that leaning is slowly dimishing and we'll also get a lot of information from his lynch. If Saint was scum then (to my mind) Nameless and King would be kind of cleared.

The reason I'm no longer positive that he's town is 1. His posts today are scummier than his posts yesterday 2. The scum team isn't Saint, King and Nameless and I was working off the theory (yesterday) that King and Nameless were the scum.

[ICEninja]

Why did you leave Implosion off the list?

I know this has already been pointed out, but did you even read what you quoted? Implosion was the first on the list.

Speaking of people who haven't been reading carefully:

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help.

Please provide examples.

Seriously? Did you pay any attention at all to what Emp was saying about King yesterday? I really shouldn't need to give examples of this. I obviously can't provide examples of him doing very little to help, except by citing every one of his posts as being more or less non scum hunting. Right now he's happy with an information lynch on someone he still has a mild town read on. How is this guy

not

a threat to the town regardless of his alignment?

[DarthYoshi]

@Setael: How do you get scummy vibes (in your words, “scummiest idea ever”) from something you think a townie might say? Your explanations aren’t jibing, and it just makes it look like you were supporting an information lynch on a player you actually still thought was town.

@Neko: What in your #646 would you have wanted to ‘get a response’ from Saint on?

@Empking: How would Saint flipping scum clear Nameless and KTS? Is it just that you don’t think scum would bus their scumchum that hard, or do you have other reasons?

I would also add Swiftstrike to ICE's "needs more of" list. This game needs to hear more Swiftstrike.

[Empking]

@Empking: How would Saint flipping scum clear Nameless and KTS? Is it just that you don’t think scum would bus their scumchum that hard, or do you have other reasons?

Yeah I just don't see it as a bus.

[Saint]

Mongoose wasn't lurking, based upon my replacing in and catching up. The person I replaced into was lurking/inactive, however, but I did my best to clear that up.

[Saint]

The "joke" was to the one you said I didn't respond to

Just because someone shares my reads, doesnt mean I'm buddying them-
q.e.d. .... ha

however,

unvote

i liked that post

[Saint]

swiftstrike's iso #5 is pretty convincing as a slip

vote: zdenek

sad that I was "buddying" this guy, nameless

[Setael]

@Setael: How do you get scummy vibes (in your words, “scummiest idea ever”) from something you think a townie might say? Your explanations aren’t jibing, and it just makes it look like you were supporting an information lynch on a player you actually still thought was town.

I didn't consider that townies might also think a mass claim was a good idea (at that point) until after. At the time it did seem like the scummiest idea ever and made me rethink my stance on him. I started looking into possible connections, analyzed yesterday's wagons, and started really thinking i had been wrong yesterday. I didn't have a LOT on him and, as has been pointed out, me thinking I should trust the reads of those who have now flipped town was not the best idea I've ever had but I certainly wasn't sure he was town. Nor am I now. I didn't vote for someone I thought was town like you're saying, but I did vote someone who was a lot lower down my scum list than other players (and that was partly because nothing much had changed to make me think anyone would support a wagon on my top scum reads). Ice's scummy post setting up my mislynch snapped me back to my senses.

[Nameless]

Since Saint is Furclow, I will not vote him unless someone can point out something scummy that he's done that has clear scum motivation.

Challenge accepted.

Saint buddies with townie players upon replacing in -> Scum gains the appearence of having good reads without having to do anything more than parrot, plus scum puts suspicion on the most effective town players if he is lynched.
Saint refuses to acknowledge case against him during D1 -> Scum avoids being lynched for questions he can't answer.
Saint acts as if scum never bus -> Scum conceals the bussing he is doing or is being done to him.

And so on.

Seriously though, 'oh, 4-5 townies couldn't possibly be wrong!' ... is wrong, and a terrible excuse for shifting your vote.

Agreed. Good thing I saw the error of my ways, eh? It seemed reasonable at the time.

Excusing excuses with even worse excuses is awesome. (Regarding your case on ICEninja, I find it fairly weak. Partially due to your situation, mostly because you're exaggerating particular sentiments in his posts and avoiding the rest of the context.)

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help.

Please provide examples.

Please, please let the scumteam be Saint / Setael / Empking. It would be almost perfect.

swiftstrike's iso #5 is pretty convincing as a slip

vote: zdenek

sad that I was "buddying" this guy, nameless

Using a crappy 'scumslip' as an excuse to quickly vote one of the players who earlier buddied up to doesn't change anything you've already done, and only demonstrates how desperate you're becoming. But I'm glad you "liked" my post, rather than say, actually give any of the requested reasoning.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Mongoose wasn't lurking, based upon my replacing in and catching up. The person I replaced into was lurking/inactive, however, but I did my best to clear that up.

The "joke" was to the one you said I didn't respond to

Just because someone shares my reads, doesnt mean I'm buddying them-
q.e.d. .... ha

however,

unvote

i liked that post

swiftstrike's iso #5 is pretty convincing as a slip

vote: zdenek

sad that I was "buddying" this guy, nameless

I like how you don't include any way to tell what posts you are responding to except for the one where you are voting based off of it. That way, town has to specifically take the time to look back and try to find the posts accusing you in order to see if your defense is adequete and responds to the posts against you, but

everyone

will know that your vote has most definantly non-scum motivations behind it.
yep.

[implosion]

WARNING: this is going to wind up being the largest post in the game, possibly bigger than the OP. As such, I'm gonna cut it off into multiple posts.

Page 25

:

With two townie deaths, and myself being a townie, perhaps it is best to massclaim at this point, as our power roles will begin to be sniped otherwise. I am completely for this.

I don't see how this logically works. First of all, setup speculation is pointless in a closed setup... trying to outguess the mafia is stupid. Second of all, I don't see what we would gain from a massclaim like this. If the point is to avoid having PRs get sniped, I don't think that those PRs claiming out loud will help with that. Why would it make sense to massclaim?

I would also like to high five the ghost of Pie for drawing the NK as a VT. (I guess I should also thank the scum for choosing him since I was having a hard time reading him, but was definitely leaning scum.

This reads as a bit odd to me. Why did you include it in your post? It seems unnecessary.

My top two suspects remain Implosion and Saint. I didn't much like Imp's vote of Mb53, it had wagonhopping written all over it, and when pressed by Mb, Implosion basically concedes sheeping his vote because:

I wouldn't call it "wagonhopping." I mean, technically it was, but deadline was approaching and there were two clear leading bandwagons.

Gonna go ahead and say it--pot, meet kettle. (and as an obligatory pre-empt to the "Mb flipped town, doesn't that mean Imp will flip town too?" argument, Mb then put his vote on Implosion, who had little chance of being seen as an 'easy lynch,' so while their behavior was similar, their voting patterns weren't, and right now, that is what I am really finding demonstrably scummy about Implosion.)

First of all, hypocrisy isn't a scumtell. Second of all, how do you find my voting pattern scummy? My vote was on Emp because the deadline was approaching, then there was an extension which allowed time for new wagons to form.

Yeah, things haven't changed my mind much. We still really need to be lynching implosion. I'll take a good hard look at Nameless's end of day 1 play, however. If that comes up fishy, then I might be inclined to suspect him.

I'm still a bit worried about Empking, but if he's scum then he is guaranteed going to die before the game is over so he isn't a huge priority for me right now.

Saint still looks like a fair lynch too, but I'm still favoring implosion. If implosion flips scum, I'm probably going to barrel down on Saint until he's dead, due to their day 1 interactions leading a connection that runs even deeper than Saint's scummy play.

If implosion is town, however, I'm not sure where I'll go from there.

Just something that I should probably do at some point, may as well be now: your case on me is completely terrible. A large portion of it is based on what I said about _over9000, in one post, a small point that I made, which I explained over and over. I've explained over and over how _over9000 could be scummy without necessarily being scum. I've explained pretty much the whole thing over and over, and yet you still say I'm "beating around the bush." The rest of your case is based on some link between me and Saint. To quote the wiki, since it's the most convenient place I can remember to find this:

Do not fool yourself into thinking you can call the scumteam, especially before anyone has flipped scum. Don't bother with trying to draw connections between players until one of them is dead. It's tempting! but futile.

Why are you placing so much value on scumteam speculation? At this point, honestly, it seems like the majority of your case on me... if you're town, there's no reason for you to do so since it is essentially futile (besides, if you are town, then it's wrong). If you're mafia, by all means, push scumteam speculation. It's just scummy, because it's a BS way to push a person. also, the last sentence of the quoted post reads scummy to me. It feels to me like setting up a failsafe for if you manage to push the wagon on me through, i flip town, and people start to turn on you. So ICE, I'd like to ask you. Say I get lynched today and I flip town. Who would you likely suspect next? You've been tunneling me since mid-day one, and I'm curious to know what your opinion is on any player in this game whose name isn't implosion or Saint. If you're going to tunnel me for the entire game, please, explain your case... the vast majority of it is totally invalid.

We shouldn't be looking in to implosion because Saint and implosion are scum buddies, remember? Saint was actually on the implosion wagon, pushing quite hard, but fell off that wagon once town was distracted and never looked back. Coincidence? I think not

See quoted above from wiki.

Empking: Reasons?

Funny joke question there.

I started the mb wagon and neko was the first to follow me onto it. Next is Saint. Then everybody starts voting saint - KingTwelveSixteen, mb53, InflatablePie, nameless, Darth Yoshi (2 of these I now know are town). So at this point it was Saint with 5 votes and mb with 3. Then empking and implosion join the mb wagon, followed by swiftstrike and then pie hammers. Of these, if Saint is town I think maybe one of neko, saint, implosion and swiftstrike could be scum, but I'll bet the rest of the scum stayed off wagon. (These are Ice, KTS, nameless, Darth, Zdenek)

The most likely permutation is either one on two off or two on one off, if we assume three scum. How many exactly there are is speculation, can be WIFOM'd by the mafia, and isn't the best way to figure out peoples' alignments this early in the game with only two flips.

Note: at this point, I am reconsidering about Saint. I still think he's town overall... but people continuing to speculate about what peoples' alignments are based on his alignment before his alignment has flipped is pointless. Setael's talking about both cases makes sense, I think. It would be a largely information-giving lynch.

I don't want to think too much about what would happen down the road, though. I feel like I've seen a strong connection between Saint and implosion that indicates scum buddies, but other than that, day 3 will bring what day 3 brings. We should be talking about who is scummy now.

If you don't want to think too much about the future, then

why are you talking so much about the future?

Almost every single post you make is talking about some connection between me and Saint... if you don't want to talk about the future, then why speculate so much?

[implosion]

Page 26-27

This post is the first one of Saint's that gave me scum vibes:

With two townie deaths, and myself being a townie, perhaps it is best to massclaim at this point, as our power roles will begin to be sniped otherwise. I am completely for this.

In terms of who we should lynch, I believe we should follow InflatablePie's logic of either me or EMPKING today.
Therefore,

vote: EMPKING

He also gave a FoS of zdenek we should look into with his last post.

I don't like AT ALL that he starts D1 voting a claimed mason and his reason is "because Pie said we should lynch either me or Empking, so I guess it should be empking". Wha? Nothing has changed from yesterday's good reasons to not be voting a claimed mason except that the wagon we switched to ended up being a townie. I don't see townies voting empking right now. At all. I also don't like the suggestion to mass claim. Scum is likely frustrated they hit vanilla last night. They don't want that to happen again tonight. Of course they want a mass claim. Scummiest idea ever.

This is somewhat similar to how I feel right now about Saint. I think this post (of saint's) is scummy (awaiting answer to my question about it). I think it's a terrible idea. I still think that on the whole, he is more likely town.

@Setael 627; I'll definitely support an ICE wagon.

Okay. Lets look at Ice's summary of himself today in 629.

you jumped from finding Saint "mildly scummy" to being ready to lynch him within minutes.

I did, hmm? How about we take a look at every single post I've made during day 2 so far:

Saint still looks like a fair lynch too, but I'm still favoring implosion.

If implosion flips scum, I'm probably going to barrel down on Saint until he's dead

, due to their day 1 interactions leading a connection that runs even deeper than Saint's scummy play.

We shouldn't be looking in to implosion because

Saint and implosion are scum buddies, remember?

Saint was actually on the implosion wagon, pushing quite hard, but fell off that wagon once town was distracted and never looked back. Coincidence? I think not.

Alright I reread nameless. He's pretty town. And he's probably right about

Saint (who I believe is a likely scum buddy with implosion).

I'm definitely not going to be voting Nameless today unless there is some significant information I missed. He was dead right about the mb wagon that sprung up. Sure mb wasn't the most town player, but he wasn't implosion.

Both Saint and implosion were on the mb wagon. He was the easiest non Saint/implosion person for scum to wagon, so this further supports my theory.

Alright, I like the reasons for voting Saint. I'm on board

So I went from thinking he's mildly scummy to being ready to lynch him in minutes? He went from being scum I wanted to lynch tomorrow to scum I want to lynch today. Big difference.

Yes, I agree that you HAVE reasons for lynching him (information is always good to have), but considering you had a TOWN read on him yesterday, the reasons you gave to justify voting him were bad. Basically, I liked your vote, but not your reasons for it.

Now your vote for me is bad and OMGUS.

Saint/implosion is still a better lynch though.

Bolded statements are

hardcore tunneling

. ICE, apparently, feels the need to reassert what he's said in every other post he's made this game in every new post he makes. Why is this scummy? Well, a town player will post their opinion, push on people, and maybe if people forget their opinion remind people. I mean, it's not like everyone and their mother doesn't know that ICE says he thinks Saint and I are scumbuddies. On the other hand, saying in every single post, over and over repetitively that Saint and I are scumbuddies is a way to ignore everyone else. He's picked out the targets that he wants to push on, and is now closing himself off to any new information. If he's town, he has no reason to do this. If he's mafia, it provides an easy way to push on someone who is town while not talking extensively about other people. Moreover, going back to how he's said (multiple times) that he's "not sure where he'll go" if Saint flips town is a way to give him something to come back to after Saint flips town (if Saint is town, which I think).

At this point, not only is ICE scummier than Saint, but his lynch will be informational as well. He's been hardcore tunneling on me and Saint, he's attacking Setael, etc.

considering two townie deaths, and the fact i'm a townie, it would really benefit the town to get all our cards out on the table, to properly lynch between counterclaims/the townie pool

EVERYONE needs to claim for this to work.

So Saint, you apparently seem to know the setup... how?

Nameless/ICE reads of Saint's post: this does actually make Saint look very scummy. And yet, I don't know. Part of it might be that I think ICE is scum, which would make Saint likely town. But part of it might be that Saint = furcolow, and I'm not sure if this is necessarily scummy in this context. It might also just be that the rest of the game makes more sense to me if Saint is town. If an ICE wagon doesn't form, I would join the Saint wagon. I honestly would be joining it mostly for the information. I'm finding him really hard to read right now, and things about him that I'm thinking are conflicting. It might also be that the link between me and Saint (when I look just at the reasoning and at Saint's play) does sort of make sense to me. And yet, since I know that I'm town, I know that no such link exists.

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help. If he is indeed a mason and is cleared by a mason buddy, then scum has no choice but to night kill him as he'll be a town aligned player that town won't be lynching. This would then prevent scum from night killing one of the people who are genuinely helping town.

You also seem to have knowledge of the setup. Who's to say that there's no masons

or

cop? You seem to be falling back on the "oh, well cop can clear him and his partner" idea. Well if they're real (as has been stated) it's somewhat likely that there is no cop; and if they're fake, there still is not necessarily a cop.

VOTE: ICEninja

[DarthYoshi]

Setael:

when I first read it

I didn't think that much of it, since I can also see a townie thinking (erroneously imo) that a mass claim at this point is a good idea.

Setael:

I didn't consider that townies might also think a mass claim was a good idea (at that point)

until after

Emphasis mine. Anyone else see the contradiction? Set, you apparently thought Saint's massclaim idea was townish before you thought it was scummy, but also didn't think it was townish until after you thought it was scummy? All to explain a vote for an information lynch on a player you admit was way down on your scumlist?

[DarthYoshi]

EBWOP: Just saw Implosion's epic re-entry into the game. I'll start plowing through that novella tomorrow.

[Nameless]

Why are you placing so much value on scumteam speculation? At this point, honestly, it seems like the majority of your case on me...

I can't speak for ICEninja here, but a key point in MY case against you was that your interactions with _over9000 / Saint and their wagon were scummy regardless of Saint's alignment; there were evident scum motives either way, and your actions were unusual for a town player, explained or not. It's not just "scumteam speculation" that players find you scummy.

Funny joke question there.

How is it a joke question to ask a player to explain their vote on me?

So Saint, you apparently seem to know the setup... how?

You also seem to have knowledge of the setup.

This is a closed setup. Scum aren't going to know any more about the town power roles than town are, so why are you acting as if this is a scumtell?

Nameless/ICE reads of Saint's post: this does actually make Saint look very scummy. And yet, I don't know. Part of it might be that I think ICE is scum, which would make Saint likely town.

This is exactly as much of scumteam speculation as you're accusing ICEninja of doing, you know.

Otherwise reasonable posting from Implosion; he gets to stay out of my idea scumteam for the moment, pending responses.

[Nameless]

EBWOP: Ideal scumteam. That could have sounded less dodgy. >_>

[Nexus]

Votecount the Twentieth:

Saint (4): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen, ICEninja, neko2086
nameless (2): Empking, Zdenek
Zdenek (2): Swiftstrike, Saint
ICEninja (2): Setael, implosion
implosion (1): Darth Yoshi

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. The deadline is at 9am (GMT) on the 21st March 2011.

[Setael]

Setael:

when I first read it

I didn't think that much of it, since I can also see a townie thinking (erroneously imo) that a mass claim at this point is a good idea.

Setael:

I didn't consider that townies might also think a mass claim was a good idea (at that point)

until after

Emphasis mine. Anyone else see the contradiction? Set, you apparently thought Saint's massclaim idea was townish before you thought it was scummy, but also didn't think it was townish until after you thought it was scummy? All to explain a vote for an information lynch on a player you admit was way down on your scumlist?

I worded that really poorly. Everything after the "since" in the first sentence I didn't think about until later so I shouldn't have said it that way. I'm not sure why - all I know is I didn't really notice it or think about it the first time I read it.

1. I read the thread and didn't think much of the mass claim suggestion (meaning I didn't think about how much scum would want that to happen right now; I didn't think through the implications.)
2. When looking over Saint's play and examining the D1 wagons, I realized how scummy his opening D2 post was (for wanting a mass claim and for his reasons for voting empking).
3. Once I realized the error of my ways (Ice pointed this out by making it even more obvious he's scum and hinting that he knows Saint is town) I immediately unvoted and when looking back over that post (and someone mentioning that he's called for a mass claim before as town in another game) I realized it could definitely have been said by town as well.

[Zdenek]

I'd hoped to have time to make a post today, but it doesn't look like I will have a chance.

Mod and everyone: I will be V/LA until Sunday

I apologize for these frequent absences. I've been traveling a lot these past three weeks, but my schedule will calm down after this week.