Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[ICEninja]

You're grasping at straws to paint me scummy.

I'm not trying to paint you scummy. I'm pointing out scummy things you're doing. There's a difference.

Even if he flips scum my bet is somehow you'll find a way to pin that on me.

Have you even read anything I've been saying? If Saint flips scum I'm going to be rock solid on implosion, not you.

[Nexus]

Votecount the Twenty-First:

Saint (5): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen, ICEninja, neko2086, Empking
ICEninja (3): Setael, implosion, Saint
nameless (1): Zdenek
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike
implosion (1): Darth Yoshi

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Saint is at L-1. The deadline is at 9am (GMT) on the 21st March 2011.

neko2086 has been prodded. As usual, any problems, let me know.

[Setael]

You're grasping at straws to paint me scummy.

I'm not trying to paint you scummy. I'm pointing out scummy things you're doing. There's a difference.

I know the difference. Please explain how the following quote is "pointing out something scummy I've done."

Pretty sure he is [town] though

This seems slightly at odds with you thinking Saint is really terrible if he's town.

I think he's probably town. It's stupid for a townie to claim VT for no reason. Please explain what is so scummy about me thinking this.

[Saint]

vote: saint

sorry guys, day has dragged on too long

look into my wagon

[Setael]

You've got to be kidding me.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

If you are town...

[Nexus]

Lynch has been achieved.

Votecount the Twenty Second:

Saint (6): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen, ICEninja, neko208, Empking, Saint. LYNCHED
ICEninja (2): Setael, implosion
nameless (1): Zdenek
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike
implosion (1): Darth Yoshi

Not voting: Noone

Five of you crowd around Saint, demanding he give you answers. You're convinced that he's scum. He doesn't really put up a fight. In fact, he puts the noose around his neck. "I don't like any of you anymore. It's time for me to die!" He doesn't even bother going to the gallows, instead tying the rope onto a tree. With one final one-fingered salute, he jumps off the branch, and you hear his neck snap. You go through his house, and find out that Saint was:

Saint - Vanilla Townie

You've made another mistake, although Saint's stupidity didn't help. You don't have a chance to really digest the information, as night falls, and you all scurry off to bed. Hopefully you make it through the night.

Night has fallen. Night ends at 8pm (GMT), 72 hours from now, on Wednesday 9th March.

Anyone with night actions, PM them to me.

[Nexus]

Wake up in the morning feeling like P-Di...no, that's not right.

You all wake up and make your way to the centre of the town. Again, there's one of your number missing. Doing a quick head count, you realise that ICEninja is missing. You go to his house, and find his brains covering his pillow. It's a nice sight. Honest. You quickly rifle through his drawers, and find a set of handcuffs-non furry-and an ID Card. Turns out that ICEninja was:

ICEninja - Town Cop

You cover his body up with a sheet, before returning to the town centre to try and work out who is causing all these problems. Your numbers are rapidly dwindling.

Still alive:

1. KingTwelveSixteen
3. implosion
4. Setael
5. Empking
7. Swifstrike
9. Zdenek
11. DarthYoshi
12. neko2086
13. Nameless

Day 3 will end at 8pm on the 23rd March 2011. Yes, I shortened the deadline to two weeks. With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. 5 to no lynch as well.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Crap.

Vote: Empking

Because if we mislynch and then have another townie die during the night tommorow will be lylo (with a 3 person scum team) and we all said we were gonna off him later.
Gonna ISO Ice and see if he left breadcrumbs or something about who he investigated.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

...Well, I think his constant mentioning of the cop role constitutes breadcrumming cop, but I don't see anything that makes it seem like he breadcrumbed any N1 results, except that he probably investigated Empking...but I can't tell if he got a scum or town alignment or what. things like this:

...
If we're confused day 3, he might be a good lynch assuming no one clears him.
...
Unless Empking gets cleared as town (by cop or mason buddy or whatever) then we're going to lynch him before lylo, plain and simple. Should he end up cleared, then he'll be a very valuable asset to town (masons are some of the strongest PRs late game, save maybe a jail keeper) and will have to be NKed anyway. If not then he's scum and we're going to lynch him. We have time.
...
I'm still a bit worried about Empking, but if he's scum then he is guaranteed going to die before the game is over so he isn't a huge priority for me right now.
...
I never said I wasn't suspicious of him, I just said that lynching him was a bad idea. I feel like I've made my point fairly clear in saying that I want to wait until day 3 or so, at which point it is much safer for a mason buddy to clear him, or for a cop to claim. Should Emp be cleared at day 3, that forces scum to decide who to night kill during nights 3 and 4, and forcing them to night kill Emp, which is good because then they aren't night killing a townie player.

Alternatively if he's scum, no one is going to be clearing him during day 3, as it is too early for scum to claim mason partner, as a cop investigate would result in netting us 2 scum. Therefore I feel it is pretty safe that we decide his fate during day 3.
...

Arn't that clear, but he does say he suspects empking so I'd put more on him getting emp-scum than emp-town...

[Swiftstrike]

I have also just done a iso on ice, I concur he mentioned cop a fair bit on the 2nd page after not mentioning it at all the first page but given the interaction here.

You both admit that speculation is useless and say that you're going to continue doing it... sigh.

It isn't even speculation at this point. I think you're scum. I think Saint is scum. I ALSO think that you two are scum together. It simply makes sense and I have presented reasoning why. These are the reads that my scum hunting has gathered me.

I agree, I am fence sitting. I'm getting very mixed ideas about Saint's slot. I'm really unsure about it at this point.

You say that you have a neutral slightly leaning town read on the Saint slot. If you can't get a wagon on me, then your second alternative is to turn around and lynch a neutral slightly leaning town player for an information lynch. What does this say about the quality of your scum hunting? Scum doesn't need to get reads on people, they already know who is town and who is scum. Town needs to really dig deep and get reads for themselves as to who is scum.

Okay, first off, you saying that you think there's a cop in the game based on your own observation is both 1) completely unverifiable (since verification would mean outing someone that you apparently think is a cop)

Why would I want to verify this? I don't want a cop to claim until he/she has sufficient information to make it worth being night killed.

and 2) completely scummy (since town members will be focusing on finding mafia rather than finding town power roles or trying to figure out a closed setup).

If you've never been looking for scum and found PR tells then you simply aren't reading carefully enough. It happens, during the course of examining people's play, that you find what people's motives are. Scum and town have very different motives. PRs and VTs have slightly different motives. Just because I'm not looking for them doesn't mean I don't find them.

Second off, you've basically admitted that you're speculating about the setup and have based some of your reasoning on speculation.

If by "basing some of my reasoning on speculation" you mean trying to figure out if Emp's mason claim checks out or not, then yes. I am doing that because town needs to know if he's a mason or if he's scum. I didn't realize this is scummy.
If by "basing some of my reasoning on speculation" you mean having you and Saint pegged as likely scum buddies, I'm assuming there is more than 1 scum in this game so there's no speculation involved there.
I haven't based ANY reasoning of any kind on there being a cop or not in this game.

Unfortunately for you, the wagon on me taking off isn't terribly likely. You're better off jumping on the Saint wagon now and trying to put together a good reason to do it in order to gain some shred of town cred for tomorrow.

it seems like implosion is trying to get confirmation that ice is the cop and is certainly worth a separate iso.

FOS Implosion

[implosion]

@Swift - if you're accusing me of rolefishing, you're wrong... I didn't know that ICE was cop, and what he said wasn't making any sense to me.

I'd like Emp's mason partner to come forward. Are other people in agreement about this?

[Nameless]

[OOG]So I'm getting rather abruptly kicked out my current residence, and don't actually have anywhere else to move into right now. I'll try and get internet set up ASAP when I find somewhere and I might have time for a serious post later today depending on how things go, but

if I suddenly drop out for a few days ... that's why.

[/OOG]

Quick thoughts:

* Given his 'wait and see' attitude, I suspect ICEninja hadn't investigated Empking. Empking's buddy should claim.
* Given that mb53 and Saint were town, I have no friggin' clue what was happening with D1's lynch. Somebody figure that out.
* I still stand by my

reasoning

for lynching Saint. With this kind of a mess, look at the players who've been voting without much effort.
* Setael still makes sense as scum though, if her discrediting and wagoning of ICEninja came after twigging he could be cop.

Not gonna vote in case I'm V/LA for a while.

[Setael]

Looking over Ice's first posts on D2, I think he may have investigated implosion and got a scum result on him. It makes sense for him to investigate implosion considering his read of him D1, and he starts off D2 saying nothing's changed, we need to lynch implosion. The only thing that makes me doubt this at all is he then says, "If implosion is town, however, I'm not sure where I'll go from there." This statement, though, may have just been to keep from being obvious as cop. Possibly the only reason he went for saint instead of implosion (or first, rather) was there was much more support for it. He'd have probably had to claim to really get a wagon going on implosion. I think he was so confident about BOTH implosion and Saint because he knew one of them was scum and due to the connection he saw between them, he was sure saint was too.

I'm going to reread first since obviously all my initial reads were wrong, but this makes me want to vote implosion.

I don't think emp's buddy should claim yet. We should wait one more day and hope scum hit a VT tonight. I feel like we have enough reason to lynch implosion today that we don't need the masons to claim just to narrow down our choices. The longer they don't know who emp's partner is (and keep not killing emp to try to get us to do it for them, or at least out the partner), the closer to end game we have 2 confirmed townies alive, and there's plenty of time to lynch emp if there ends up being no partner.

[DarthYoshi]

Nameless—hope you get your housing crisis worked out. That’s awful.

Assuming ICE didn't want to claim for whatever reason, Setael’s hypothesis of ICE’s actions (and their link to Implosion) makes a fair amount of sense. But before I vote, I’m going to do some re-reading just to try to make sure that confirmation bias isn’t setting in.

Setael:

I don't think emp's buddy should claim yet. We should wait one more day and hope scum hit a VT tonight. I feel like we have enough reason to lynch implosion today that we don't need the masons to claim just to narrow down our choices. The longer they don't know who emp's partner is (and keep not killing emp to try to get us to do it for them, or at least out the partner), the closer to end game we have 2 confirmed townies alive, and there's plenty of time to lynch emp if there ends up being no partner.

Is this assuming we lynch scum today?

@Swift: Why the FoS of Implosion? Your catch is pretty good, why not vote for him?

@KTS: Why are you voting a claimed mason without first asking his buddy to claim?

@Implosion: No top suspects coming into D3? Rly?

PS: Swift—I didn’t get a chance to answer your question about my meta before Saint self-hammered. Check out Newbie 1059 and Newbie 1048. I’m relatively new, so those are the only games I have where I’ve flipped town.

[neko2086]

All-- No time to even think about this game right now, but I will hopefully be able to post tomorrow. If not, I certainly can on Friday. I need to put a fairly hefty reread into this game. I have some initial reactions though:

Just based on an initial impression, my immediate thought was that Ice actually had investigated Emp and was trying to keep people off emp wagon without causing too much suspicion. My second thought is that Ice investigated implosion. I need to go back and see if either of those possibilities make sense. Nameless, can you go into more detail about why you don't think he investigated Emp?

I don't at all see how King can interpret Ice's iso as having investigated Emp and getting a scum result. Why would he get that kind of info and be so vague about his read on Emp, and ultimately petition for a completely different wagon?

[implosion]

Frankly, ICE flipping cop kind of screws up my take on this game. I have a couple townreads, but no solid scumreads. I'll most likely do a thorough ISO on everyone tomorrow.

[Nexus]

@nameless I will keep you as v/la. However, if it gets to three days before the deadline, and you still aren't back, I may have to replace you. Okay?

[KingTwelveSixteen]

...
@KTS: Why are you voting a claimed mason without first asking his buddy to claim?
...

I thought it was kind of obvious that his buddy should claim if he has one and that I didn't need to mention it...

I also don't think he has one.

[Nameless]

The way I figure ICEninja is this: He wouldn't risk wasting an investigation on Empking in case the scum decided to just NK him that night. Even if he had investigated Empking, he should have left SOME clue to the result rather than suggesting that we wait until D3 specifically. And I seriously, seriously doubt ICEninja would have investigated implosion - he already believed implosion was scum so it would have been redundant, and ICEninja was the only townie with good enough play that I trust him not to have made that mistake. Regardless, ICEninja

didn't

leave any clear hints so trying to lynch (or not) someone based exclusively on ICEninja's posts would be a crapshoot.

Setael is now my top suspect. Her obvious defence of Saint even while using poor excuses to join his wagon makes sense if she knew he'd flip town, and her sudden swap to ICEninja being D2's lynch makes even more sense since it came right after ICEninja's cop theorising. She also started mb53's the moment a D1 deadline extension became all-but inevitable, with little prior mention of him. Both her and q21 have made some pretty terrible and opportunistic accusations as well eg. q21's 'scumslip' against silavor or Setael's 'parking on a wagon' against me. (ISO me for details on those, and a few others.)

VOTE: Setael

[Setael]

I disagree. The first thing he says D2 is we need to lynch implosion. He makes sense as a n1 investigation, especially where there is no one ice gives a solid town read on (which he would have if he'd gotten a town result on someone.) The argument that he already thought he was scummy so he wouldn't investigate him is bad. Because of how sure he was of the connection between implosion and saint, he probably thought if he investigated one he'd have 2 scums basically confirmed to him. Two birds with one stone (at least in ice's mindset) would be a perfect reason for investigating one of them. I think he got a scum result on implosion and was certain that meant saint was scum as well.

As for nameless' reasons for voting me, I've explained my actions and they don't make sense as scum. If I were scum and knew saint were town why not just stay on his wagon? Scum is more careful with votes and not drawing negative attention. It makes no sense for scum to wagon someone they think is the cop - it makes a lot more sense to just wait and nk them like they did.

This feels like distraction from implosion. I'm the obvious target for scum, and they probably orchestrated how to pull off my mislynch last night. So we lynch implosion and when he flips scum, we look at nameless.

[Zdenek]

I am here and reading to get caught up with and back into the game. I'll make a post with content by tomorrow night, and hopefully sooner.

My initial thoughts:

I believe that everyone except Empking has posted today, and no one has claimed to be masons with Empking.

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

In a game with a cop and masons, I strongly doubt that there is a doctor, so there is almost no question that you will be killed tonight if your partner doesn't claim. I think that there would be a lot of benefit for us to have two confirmed town out today, and one tomorrow, rather than just one tomorrow.

I tried to do some wagon analysis by looking at all wagons with four or more people on them. Unless I missed something, on only one is there one person who's unconfirmed while the others are all confirmed town. It was very early in the game. At the moment, I don't think there is much to learn by analyzing the wagons.

[Empking]

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

He will not.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I think that I'm going to hop back onto the Nameless train.

Vote:Nameless

[Zdenek]

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

He will not.

Why not?

[Setael]

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

He will not.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I think that I'm going to hop back onto the Nameless train.

Vote:Nameless

Though I think there nameless could be implosion's scum buddy, I think there's strong evidence ice had a scum result on implosion. Your thoughts on this?