Mini 1117 - Manhattan Special - [GAME OVER]

LimMePls · Post Post #675 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 5:37 am

Massclaim if we're going to NL is just stupid.

If we're going to lynch Sapo, Massclaim is stupid. If we have multiple lynch candidates, then massclaim makes more sense.

Sapo's eagerness to start the massclaim only further means we should give them rope and save the MC for tomorrow.

Empking · Post Post #676 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 6:10 am

Substrike22 wrote:How is that not true? Today we have a 17-18% chance of hitting scum, tomorrow it's 20%?

Sapo is either scum or she isn't. Seeing town die won't affect Sapo's alignment.

Massclaim if we're going to NL is just stupid.

If we're going to lynch Sapo, Massclaim is stupid. If we have multiple lynch candidates, then massclaim makes more sense.

Sapo's eagerness to start the massclaim only further means we should give them rope and save the MC for tomorrow.

This.

LimMePls · Post Post #677 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 8:00 am

Substrike22 wrote:How is that not true? Today we have a 17-18% chance of hitting scum, tomorrow it's 20%?

This is using numbers to be misleading. This would be true if we were lynching from the player list in a vacuum, but we are not doing that, we're lynching from a subset of the player list that is unlikely to change due to NK (ie the scum aren't gonna NK other scummy players). Therefore our chances actually get worse because we'll still be lynching from the same pool of players, only we'll be doing it with 1 less townie.

LimMePls · Post Post #678 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 12:11 pm

Also, even if your numbers were accurate, why is a 2% chance worth giving up a town player?

Erratus Apathos · Post Post #679 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 1:11 pm

LynchMePls wrote:Massclaim if we're going to NL is just stupid.

If we're going to lynch Sapo, Massclaim is stupid. If we have multiple lynch candidates, then massclaim makes more sense.

Sapo's eagerness to start the massclaim only further means we should give them rope and save the MC for tomorrow.

I see your point.

VOTE: saporovirus

Midnight's Sorrow · Post Post #680 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 11:46 pm

Pussycat makes sense. Which is a rare sight to behold for me.

Vote: Saporovirus

InflatablePie · Post Post #681 (ISO) » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:08 am

D5 Final Votecount (VC #2)

[4] saporovirus - Empking, LynchMePls, Erratus Apathos, Midnight's Sorrow

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Substrike22
[0] LynchMePls
[0] Empking
[1] Not Voting - saporovirus
[1] No Lynch - Substrike22

The town decided to make saporo their next priority. She didn't struggle on her way to the gallows. Quickly and quietly, she was hanged. One of the townies checked her pockets, and a wave of happiness came over the remainder of the town.

saporovirus,

Mafia Goon

, has been lynched!

It is now Night 5. Any night actions are due in by Friday, March 11th at 10AM EST.

InflatablePie · Post Post #682 (ISO) » Fri Mar 11, 2011 5:09 am

Another day, another corpse. This time, it was a poor, defenseless kitten. It looks like he would no longer be "in ur mafia game". Being dead makes that kinda difficult, you know.

LynchMePls,

Vanilla Townie

, has died.

It is now Day 6. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch or 2 to No Lynch. The deadline for this Day is in two weeks - Friday, March 25th at 11AM EST.

Empking · Post Post #683 (ISO) » Fri Mar 11, 2011 11:58 am

Scum killed Agar? Awesome. Along with XXX he was going to be my main suspect for the Sapo protect. I'm going to ISO Sapo to look for any buddies.

Empking · Post Post #684 (ISO) » Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:02 pm

Yeah I've got my vote ready.

Midnight's Sorrow · Post Post #685 (ISO) » Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:13 pm

Empking wrote:
Scum killed Agar?
Awesome. Along with XXX he was going to be my main suspect for the Sapo protect. I'm going to ISO Sapo to look for any buddies.

Uhh... yeah. They did two nights ago man. Where have you been?

Empking · Post Post #686 (ISO) » Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:16 pm

Midnight's Sorrow wrote:
Empking wrote:
Scum killed Agar?
Awesome. Along with XXX he was going to be my main suspect for the Sapo protect. I'm going to ISO Sapo to look for any buddies.

Uhh... yeah. They did two nights ago man. Where have you been?

In all honesty I should've wrote "Scum killed the guy that derailed the original Sapo wagon?".

Substrike22 · Post Post #687 (ISO) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 11:03 am

VOTE: No lynch

Same reason as yesterday.

Empking · Post Post #688 (ISO) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 11:14 am

Substrike22 wrote:VOTE: No lynch

Same reason as yesterday.

Who do you expect to be nightkilled?

Substrike22 · Post Post #689 (ISO) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 1:20 pm

Empking wrote:
Substrike22 wrote:VOTE: No lynch

Same reason as yesterday.
Who do you expect to be nightkilled?

I feel like saying this would defeat the purpose, but I would honestly say that as long as it's not player 1, and it's either player 2 or 3, I'll feel more comfortable with my vote tomorrow.

Erratus Apathos · Post Post #690 (ISO) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 1:30 pm

Four players is definitely the right time to no lynch.

VOTE: No lynch

Empking · Post Post #691 (ISO) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 1:39 pm

Vote: Sub

I don't think No Lynch would help to be quite honest.

InflatablePie · Post Post #692 (ISO) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 3:45 pm

[2] No Lynch - Substrike22, Erratus Apathos

There has been No Lynch. It is now Night 6. Any night actions are due within the next 48 hours - deadline being March 14th at 10PM EST.

Given the short Day Phase, I may open the thread early if any and all night actions have been submitted prior to deadline, however, the topic will not be re-opened before 24 hours have passed.

InflatablePie · Post Post #693 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:08 am

And then there were three.

The last few members of the town had met up at the usual spot in Central Park, only to find another corpse... sort of. They found a broken and bloody PokeBall near a bench, as well as a small crown and what looked like fish scales, but no actual body. Interesting.

Empking,

Vanilla Townie

, has died.

It is now Day 7. With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch or 2 to no lynch. The deadline is in two weeks - Monday, March 28th at Noon EST.

Erratus Apathos · Post Post #694 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:15 pm

I'm a vanilla townie.

I'll do a vote count analysis in a bit.

Substrike22 · Post Post #695 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:55 pm

I also claim VT.

The case against MS:
Lurkiness all the way through D1 and D2
You know, posts 87 and 97 look a lot like a Freudian slip now that I re-read this game, especially since I already think MS is scum to begin with.
Post 497 is a horrible attempt at a case, and marks where MS actually becomes slightly interested in the game.
Goes back to posting worthless content through days three and four, occasionally coming on to post an eye-rolling smiley in my direction.

The case on Erratus:
Erratus seemed way to intent on lynching IS on day one though. Almost intent enough to make me think he had insider information.
The battle against Fugitive is really, really hard to read.
Saporo's post 507 looks like an attempt at bussing you, and then your response in post 531 looks like you're distancing from him. Distancing is the wrong word because you weren't playing super close to him to begin with, but it looks like a town/town/scum kind of list. lends you credibility in the endgame.
You almost appeared to rush that no lynch yesterday but that's the pot calling the kettle black from my perspective.
Lastly I find it very strange that you pop corned Saporo yesterday, after suggesting the claim, then Saporo pop corned you right back.

In Summary: Your interactions with Saporo are more scummy than Midnight's, but my experience in mafia tells me that the person not contributing anything is more often the scum. I honestly have no fucking idea. At the end of the day I feel like I can live with myself if I'm wrong about EA, but I can't if I'm wrong about MS. Then again I feel like every time I go with my gut in this situation I fuck up. This entire game I've been wanting to vote Midnight's Sorrow, and I've made that clear, and I haven't mentioned Erratus once. Which makes me think that if MS were scum he would've killed me, and if EA were scum he would've left me alive.

I've clearly made the classic blunder of starting a land war in Asia. Are either of you Sicilian? -_-

Erratus Apathos · Post Post #696 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:27 pm

Here we go.

InflatablePie wrote:D1 Votecount #1

[3]
CrazyQuestions
-
ShadoWolf
,
el simo
,
Internet Stranger

[2]
Empking
- Midnight's Sorrow, Erratus Apathos
[1]
Pergol
-
GreyICE

[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[1] Substrike22 -
Empking

[1]
GreyICE
-
CrazyQuestions

[0]
saporovirus

[0]
TheLonging

[0]
ShadoWolf

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
Internet Stranger

[0]
ConfidAnon

[0]
el simo

[4] Not Voting:
saporovirus
,
TheLonging
,
Pergol
,
ConfidAnon

D1 Votecount #2

[2]
Empking
- Midnight's Sorrow, Substrike22
[2]
GreyICE
-
CrazyQuestions
,
el simo

[2]
ShadoWolf
-
Internet Stranger
,
Empking

[1]
CrazyQuestions
-
ShadoWolf

[1]
saporovirus
-
GreyICE

[1]
Internet Stranger
- Erratus Apathos
[0]
Pergol

[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Substrike22
[0]
TheLonging

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
ConfidAnon

[0]
el simo

[4] Not Voting:
saporovirus
,
Pergol
,
ConfidAnon
,
TheLonging

Sub looks slightly worse here since his vote pushes the Emp wagon over IS (but not saporo, as Grey's vote came after Sub's). Not much though, since there were other counterwagons he could've pushed.

InflatablePie wrote:D1 Votecount #3

[5]
ShadoWolf
-
Internet Stranger
,
Empking
,
TheLonging
,
el simo
, Erratus Apathos
[2]
Empking
- Midnight's Sorrow, Substrike22
[1]
GreyICE
-
CrazyQuestions

[1]
CrazyQuestions
-
ShadoWolf

[1]
saporovirus
-
GreyICE

[0]
Internet Stranger

[0]
Pergol

[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Substrike22
[0]
TheLonging

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
ConfidAnon

[0]
el simo

[3] Not Voting:
saporovirus
,
Pergol
,
ConfidAnon

D1 Votecount #4

[5]
ShadoWolf
-
Internet Stranger
,
Empking
,
TheLonging
,
el simo
, Erratus Apathos
[1]
Empking
-
GreyICE

[1]
GreyICE
-
CrazyQuestions

[1]
CrazyQuestions
-
ShadoWolf

[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[1] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[0]
Internet Stranger

[0]
Pergol

[0]
TheLonging

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
ConfidAnon

[0]
el simo

[3] Not Voting:
saporovirus
,
Pergol
,
ConfidAnon

D1 Votecount #5

[5]
ShadoWolf
-
Internet Stranger
,
Empking
,
TheLonging
,
el simo
, Erratus Apathos
[1]
Empking
-
GreyICE

[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[1] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
GreyICE

[0]
CrazyQuestions

[0]
saporovirus

[0]
Internet Stranger

[0]
Pergol

[0]
TheLonging

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
ConfidAnon

[0]
el simo

[5] Not Voting:
saporovirus
,
Pergol
,
ConfidAnon
,
CrazyQuestions
,
ShadoWolf

D1 Votecount #6 (Final D1 VC)

[7]
ShadoWolf
-
Internet Stranger
,
Empking
,
TheLonging
,
el simo
, Erratus Apathos,
CrazyQuestions
, Substrike22
[2]
Empking
-
GreyICE
,
ShadoWolf

[1] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
GreyICE

[0]
CrazyQuestions

[0]
saporovirus

[0]
Internet Stranger

[0]
Pergol

[0]
TheLonging

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
ConfidAnon

[0]
el simo

[3] Not Voting:
saporovirus
,
Pergol
,
ConfidAnon

InflatablePie wrote:D2 Votecount #1

[3]
Internet Stranger
-
NavyCherub
,
Fugitive
, Substrike22
[1]
CrazyQuestions
-
TheLonging

[1]
TheLonging
- Erratus Apathos
[0]
Empking

[0] Substrike22
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[0]
NavyCherub

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
Fugitive

[0]
el simo

[6] Not Voting -
Empking
,
saporovirus
, Midnight's Sorrow,
Internet Stranger
,
CrazyQuestions
,
el simo

D2 Votecount #2 (Final D2 VC)

[6]
Internet Stranger
-
NavyCherub
,
Fugitive
, Substrike22, Erratus Apathos,
Empking
,
CrazyQuestions

[1]
CrazyQuestions
-
TheLonging

[1]
NavyCherub
-
Internet Stranger

[0]
TheLonging

[0]
Empking

[0] Substrike22
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0]
Fugitive

[0]
el simo

[3] Not Voting -
saporovirus
, Midnight's Sorrow,
el simo

This is here for completeness's sake, but all it shows is what order people got online after Navy's claim.

InflatablePie wrote:D3 Votecount #1

[2]
CrazyQuestions
-
Empking
, Substrike
[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1]
TheLonging
- Erratus Apathos
[0]
Empking

[0] Substrike22
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[0]
Fugitive

[0]
el simo

[5] Not Voting -
CrazyQuestions
,
TheLonging
, Midnight's Sorrow,
saporovirus
,
el simo

D3 Votecount #2

[4]
CrazyQuestions
-
Empking
, Substrike,
TheLonging
,
el simo

[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1]
Fugitive
- Erratus Apathos
[0]
TheLonging

[0]
Empking

[0] Substrike22
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[0]
el simo

[3] Not Voting -
CrazyQuestions
, Midnight's Sorrow,
saporovirus

Sub is the only unconfirmed on the CQ wagon, which is bad. MS still not voting isn't much better though.

InflatablePie wrote:D3 Votecount #3

[3]
CrazyQuestions
- Substrike,
TheLonging
,
el simo

[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1]
Fugitive
- Erratus Apathos
[1]
el simo
-
CrazyQuestions

[1]
TheLonging
-
Empking

[0]
Empking

[0] Substrike22
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[2] Not Voting - Midnight's Sorrow,
saporovirus

D3 Votecount #4

[3]
CrazyQuestions
- Substrike,
TheLonging
,
el simo

[2] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow,
CrazyQuestions

[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1]
Fugitive
- Erratus Apathos
[1]
TheLonging
-
Empking

[0]
el simo

[0]
Empking

[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
saporovirus

[1] Not Voting -
saporovirus

D3 Votecount #5

[3] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow,
CrazyQuestions
,
Empking

[2]
CrazyQuestions
-
TheLonging
,
el simo

[2] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive
,
saporovirus

[1]
Fugitive
- Erratus Apathos
[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[0]
TheLonging

[0]
el simo

[0]
Empking

[0]
saporovirus

[0] Not Voting

This is, I think, the most telling vote count. With Sub being the most popular wagon after the CQ wagon deflates, saporovirus pushes my wagon. It looks very much like she's pushing a counter-wagon to save Sub.

InflatablePie wrote:D3 Votecount #6

[3] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow,
CrazyQuestions
,
Empking

[2] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive
,
saporovirus

[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[1]
saporovirus
- Erratus Apathos
[0]
CrazyQuestions

[0]
Fugitive

[0]
TheLonging

[0]
el simo

[0]
Empking

[2] Not Voting -
Nexus
,
el simo

The end of D3 didn't come with a vote count, but the only thing that changed was Nexus voting Sub.

Remaining days don't tell me a whole lot, but again, completeness sake:

InflatablePie wrote:Day 4 Votecount #1

[2]
Fugitive
-
AGar
,
Empking

[1] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow
[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1]
saporovirus
- Erratus Apathos
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0]
LynchMePls

[0]
AGar

[0]
Empking

[3] Not Voting - Substrike22,
saporovirus
,
LynchMePls

Day 4 Votecount #2 [edit] because I can't count from one to two.

[3]
Fugitive
-
AGar
,
Empking
, Erratus Apathos
[1] Substrike22 - Midnight's Sorrow
[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[0]
saporovirus

[0]
LynchMePls

[0]
AGar

[0]
Empking

[2] Not Voting -
saporovirus
,
LynchMePls

Day 4 Final Votecount (#3)

[5]
Fugitive
-
AGar
,
Empking
, Erratus Apathos,
LynchMePls
, Midnight's Sorrow
[1] Erratus Apathos -
Fugitive

[1] Midnight's Sorrow - Substrike22
[0] Substrike22
[0]
saporovirus

[0]
LynchMePls

[0]
AGar

[0]
Empking

[1] Not Voting -
saporovirus

InflatablePie wrote:D5 Votecount #1

[2]
saporovirus
-
Empking
,
LynchMePls

[0] Erratus Apathos
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Substrike22
[0]
LynchMePls

[0]
Empking

[3] Not Voting -
saporovirus
, Erratus Apathos, Midnight's Sorrow
[1] No Lynch - Substrike22

D5 Final Votecount (VC #2)

[4]
saporovirus
-
Empking
,
LynchMePls
, Erratus Apathos, Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Erratus Apathos
[0] Midnight's Sorrow
[0] Substrike22
[0]
LynchMePls

[0]
Empking

[1] Not Voting -
saporovirus

[1] No Lynch - Substrike22

So I'm leaning towards Subscum.

InflatablePie · Post Post #697 (ISO) » Thu Mar 17, 2011 5:40 am

Prodding Midnight's Sorrow.

Erratus Apathos · Post Post #698 (ISO) » Thu Mar 17, 2011 10:40 am

Substrike22 wrote:
Empking wrote:
Substrike22 wrote:VOTE: No lynch

Same reason as yesterday.
Who do you expect to be nightkilled?
I feel like saying this would defeat the purpose, but I would honestly say that as long as it's not player 1, and it's either player 2 or 3, I'll feel more comfortable with my vote tomorrow.

Who were players 1, 2, and 3 referring to?

InflatablePie · Post Post #699 (ISO) » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:13 am

Prodding Substrike22.

And searching for a replacement for Midnight's Sorrow...