Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[Empking]

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

He will not.

Why not?

That's not the pro-town thing to do.

[Empking]

Set: Its not conclusive but cops need to be wary of giving strong reads.

[Zdenek]

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

He will not.

Why not?

That's not the pro-town thing to do.

You need to give a better explanation than that.

[Setael]

Set: Its not conclusive but cops need to be wary of giving strong reads.

Sure, but if they got a town result on someone they'd say they have a town read on them. A VT is just as likely to say "I think x is town" so why would that seem suspicious? A cop would definitely want to post right away giving something town can look back at to find their investigation result if they end up NK'd. I agree that they can't be too obvious but they can say they have a town or scum read on whoever they investigated. He did that by telling us to lynch implosion.

Looking back over Ice's posts there's a small chance he investigated nameless and got a town result. He initially says he's going to look over nameless' end of D1 play but then says he reread him and decided he was town. This might have been his way to get a town result on nameless out there without drawing too much attention. Also a good reason to not wagon nameless today.

I'm rereading looking at implosion.

[DarthYoshi]

I forgot to add with my first post:

Vote: Nexus.

Quoting Ke$ha in a narration should be a lynchable offense.

After re-thinking ICE’s posting pattern…Setael, if what you say is accurate—that ICE investigated Implosion and got a guilty result, leading him to conclude that Saint and Imp were a scumpair—why wouldn’t ICE out his investigation result? A 1:1 trade, even with a PR, is typically a good deal for the town, and a 2:1 trade is excellent. Nabbing two scum in one go would be as good a use of a cop as you could probably hope for.

I could definitely see Setael being scum—her voting pattern on D2 was hella odd, she required multiple takes to actually come up with an explanation that made sense, and she immediately pounced on ICE after he crumbed mason/cop all over #626. I had a neutral-leaning-town read on her going into D2, but since then, her play has been all sorts of squirrelly.

However, I am going to vote for Implosion again right now, but more on the strength of Swift’s catch than Setael’s analysis. Implosion’s only reply to Swift was simply “what he said didn’t make sense to me.” Having re-read the original exchange, I don’t see any confusion being exhibited on Implosion’s part—he was certain enough to want to vote ICE. So I’m inclined to see Implosion’s words as rolefishing. I also think this is the case because of this exchange in #667 where Implosion also votes ICE:

[quote=Implosion]

You also seem to have knowledge of the setup.

Who's to say that there's no masons or cop? You seem to be falling back on the "oh, well cop can clear him and his partner" idea. Well if they're real (as has been stated) it's somewhat likely that there is no cop; and if they're fake, there still is not necessarily a cop.

VOTE: ICEninja[/quote]

Emphasis mine. Re-reading this, this vote is all kinds of awful. Tells aside, there’s likely no way for scum to know whether there is a cop in the setup—only a cop would know there is a cop in the setup. So what Implosion is claiming is a scum tell (knowing what town PRs are in the setup) would actually be a town PR tell…

and then he votes for ICE.

Yeah, I’m still pretty sure Implosion is scum. Wouldn't be surprised if Setael is, either, though.

@KTS: Here’s why I was so leery of your vote on Emp—you were the first post of D3, so nobody else could have said on D3 that Emp’s buddy should claim (like they have subsequently done), so I think you saying it is assumed that the buddy should claim looked contrived. But since Emp has said his buddy isn’t going to claim, I’m still thinking about this. Will wait to see what Emp says in response to Zdenek.

Unvote. Vote: Implosion.

[DarthYoshi]

Derp, quote fail midway through my above post. I've been doing that a lot lately. Sorry, folks. It should be easy to spot.

[Setael]

After re-thinking ICE’s posting pattern…Setael, if what you say is accurate—that ICE investigated Implosion and got a guilty result, leading him to conclude that Saint and Imp were a scumpair—why wouldn’t ICE out his investigation result? A 1:1 trade, even with a PR, is typically a good deal for the town, and a 2:1 trade is excellent. Nabbing two scum in one go would be as good a use of a cop as you could probably hope for.

First, he knew there was a cop and possibly 2 masons so he probably thought it was unlikely there's a doc which would make him hesitant to claim since surely he was hoping to get a result N2 as well - D2 would be really early to claim even if he did catch scum.

Second, assuming he did get a scum result on implosion and concluded that both saint and implosion were scum, there was no reason to claim the result and unnecessarily out himself if he could get one of them lynched without claiming. If things played out differently he may have claimed, but he was sure enough that the saint wagon was taking out scum that he didn't think it necessary. Makes sense.

I did not read anything ice said about a cop as breadcrumbs. I thought he was scum. The last thing I would've considered was that ice might be cop. Implosion, on the other hand, was reading a lot into the cop talk and this is a very good point:

Re-reading this, this vote is all kinds of awful. Tells aside, there’s likely no way for scum to know whether there is a cop in the setup—only a cop would know there is a cop in the setup. So what Implosion is claiming is a scum tell (knowing what town PRs are in the setup) would actually be a town PR tell…and then he votes for ICE.

[Empking]

Yeah thinking about it I can definitely accept Iece having investingated Implosion.

Unvote

Vote: Implosion

[KingTwelveSixteen]

...

You also seem to have knowledge of the setup.

Who's to say that there's no masons or cop? You seem to be falling back on the "oh, well cop can clear him and his partner" idea. Well if they're real (as has been stated) it's somewhat likely that there is no cop; and if they're fake, there still is not necessarily a cop.

VOTE: ICEninja

Emphasis mine. Re-reading this, this vote is all kinds of awful. Tells aside, there’s likely no way for scum to know whether there is a cop in the setup—only a cop would know there is a cop in the setup. So what Implosion is claiming is a scum tell (knowing what town PRs are in the setup) would actually be a town PR tell…

and then he votes for ICE.

...

How suspicious.
I don't think ICE investigated implosion like has been mentioned though, he specifically stated that his reads on implosion and saint were from him scumhunting. "These are the reads that my scum hunting has gathered me."


@Empking: Oh hey, how is claiming mason partner with you anti-town?

Oh hey, ICE said this: "which is good because then they aren't night killing a townie player," when refering to Emp as the non-townie player.

[Setael]

When I first read this, I also arched an eyebrow:

I never said I wasn't suspicious of him, I just said that lynching him was a bad idea. I feel like I've made my point fairly clear in saying that I want to wait until day 3 or so, at which point it is much safer for a mason buddy to clear him, or for a cop to claim. Should Emp be cleared at day 3, that forces scum to decide who to night kill during nights 3 and 4, and forcing them to night kill Emp, which is good because then they aren't night killing a townie player.

but then I realized what Ice was saying and it didn't bother me anymore. He's not saying Emp is not a townie player - he's separating Emp out from the rest of the town and saying scum will be forced to NK emp rather than one of the other townies (as opposed to us lynching emp for them, in which case the scum then WOULD NK one of the other townies instead of emp). I don't think this is in any way an indication that Ice thought emp was scum.

I reread Ice's case on Implosion and it's pretty solid. I didn't give it the credit it deserved because I thought ice was scum. Here are his main points:

I said I had no strong read on _over9000's alignment.

Let me go back and quote some things (almost everything, in fact) that you've said about over9000.

scum:
mongoose
nameless
over9000

As for _Over9000, His ISO 2 seems overly cautious and his ISO 3 seems overly unnecessary

He's a really easy target, and I'd bet there's at least one scum on his wagon right now. He seems like too easy of a person for scum to pressure for them to pass up, unless he is scum, in which case I still think they'd be inclined to bus him.

I never once objected to lynching _over9000.

Where did I say that I thought it was more likely town with scum on the wagon? IIRC, the only statement I've made about 9000's alignment is that he does appear scummy.

No. In fact, I agree that he is scummy, and I'm sure that there is town on his wagon (theoretically it could be all scum, but doubtful).

Something isn't adding up. You can't say all of that, then tell us you think it is equally likely for him to be scum and to be town. If you think he's scum and buddies are busing him, then help them bus and lynch scum. If you think he is town and that scum is on his wagon, then you need to specifically point out who is the most likely to be scum and why, as you said yourself you believe there to be town on his wagon.

You haven't done this. Quickly scanning your ISO shows that you are voting mongoose for silly RVS reasons initially, then pressuring him to answer questions. You seem to think he's scummy, but you've never actually stated why he's more likely to be scum than anyone else who voted over9000, unless I missed something.

So yes, implosion is absolutely scummy right now.

Vote implosion

.

I was gonna unvote and vote Emp, but then noticed that he's mongoose's replacement and I already have a vote on him.

Voting someone because of his predecessor. Why? Because of apparently:

I voted mongoose for a contradiction or something (I think, too lazy to go back and check) and then for not answering a question.

You can't even remember. Look back at your reasons, they were pretty awful. The fact that you continue to hold your vote for those original reasons means your scum hunting has come to a complete and total standstill.

I'm also building up suspicion of ICE, partially because I honestly don't see why he's focusing so much on one thing that I said in passing.

He suspects me because I'm scum hunting him. This isn't something you said in passing, this is regarding your (still current) scum reads. It is extremely valid, even now.

Plus, although I may have been somewhat unclear, he is presenting a contradiction where none exists.

You've said over9000 is scummy, repeatedly, but you don't believe he's scum? How is this not a contradiction? How can you find someone scummy but not have a read on their alignment? What does it even MEAN to find someone scummy? This is absolutely a contradiction, one of severe fence sitting. Highly scummy.

And he was on the _over9000 wagon.

Right. I was voting for a scummy player. THAT sure makes me scum.

If we arn't lynching Emp because of his mason claim, then In the spirit of actually playing the game well I would like to say that the other people I suspect are Saint and Pie.

I still think implosion is a way better lynch than Saint, but I wouldn't oppose it. Whats your reasoning for Pie?

I'd like to point out to everyone that implosion all the sudden feels like Saint is town. He also claims to never have a read on over9000, despite having called him scummy (apparently in implosion's book, scummy =/= scum aligned?) and behaved so oddly to the wagon.

Saint is scummy too, but for some reason a wagon never really built on him. That is interesting, though, and makes me further suspicious of him. I'll have to look again at how many people called him scummy without ever having their vote on the slot.

I still want an implosion lynch, though.

Alright, I definitely feel like Emp is a bit on the scummy side, but just look how implosion is taking advantage of the town's push against Emp. I'll take an Emp lynch over a no lynch, but I really feel like I've got such a commanding case against implosion that I just don't want to move off of it. Whats more is that a scum lynch on either Saint or implosion gives us so much information on the other, and that is just too sweet for me to pass up.

I feel like King is probably the most town right now that his slot has ever been, which is pretty much just under neutral.

The case against Emp is decent, and there are definitely points against Mongoose as well. I still just don't think he's as likely to flip scum as implosion.

That being said, I do agree with a couple of your other points—especially him not calling out Implosion after the scumlist.

Come on man, I had lots of respect for you. Why is it scummy to not call someone out for something that I don't think is particularly scummy? Yeah it is anti-town, but how he oriented his scum list was just so much scummier. MB did the same thing, even worse, but I don't think he can be scum if we get an implosion scum flip, as no scum buddy would follow their partner in a connection like that. This is an even further reason to lynch implosion, in my mind.

I admit I'm not 100% fully caught up to the game at the moment, I'm still a little bit behind, but I'll be fully caught up on Saturday, before the deadline.

Alright I still think we need to be lynching implosion. Take a look at him, seriously. Look how much he tries to resist answering my question straight, look at how he keeps beating around the bush, and look at how he drops off the radar the instant pressure is taken off him.

All of these points are IN ADDITION to the fact that he was calling someone scummy but had "no read on his alignment".

I could possibly be convinced to switch back to Saint, but I genuinely think implosion needs to be today's lynch. I see the recent case again MB, and that would be my 3rd pick. I'm not a huge fan of the case against Nameless, and I'm not a huge fan of the case against King, though neither of them are town reads in my eyes.

I just feel like town really doesn't need to be lynching Empking today. Tomorrow we can talk about it when we aren't so close to the deadline, have a flip, and have a better chance of really getting down to the bottom of things. If he is indeed a mason, and gets cleared, that puts scum in a really bad spot tomorrow. If he is indeed a mason and we lynch him today, then his mason buddy has no way to really claim safely, and scum could fake claim it to force us in to lylo. If he's scum, he's going to get lynched, plain and simple. There's no rush.

More implosion votes, please.

vote: Implosion

[Nexus]

Votecount the Twenty Third:

implosion (3): Darth Yoshi, Empking, Setael
Empking (1): KingTwelveSixteen
Setael (1): nameless

Not voting: implosion, Zdenek, neko2086, Swiftstrike

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. 5 to no lynch. Deadline is 8pm (GMT) on the 23rd March 2011.

As ever, any problems, let me know.

[Nameless]

I just checked; Empking shouldn't have a mason buddy via simple process of elimination: None of the dead players flipped mason. Swiftstrike has outright stated he isn't Empking's buddy. Setael said several times D1 that Empking'd buddy needed to claim, without doing so. I'm sure we all remember KTS's back and forth gunning for Empking earlier in the game. I am not Empking's buddy.

That leaves Implosion, Zdenek, DarthYoshi and Neko as plausible candidates. Except that every single one of those players expressed explicit suspicion of mongoose (whom Empking replaced) early in the game. 23, 140, 71 and 161 are examples for each.

Therefore, somebody is lying. It's probably Empking. If not, and I say this on the basis that their recent interactions would have made it pretty obvious anyway and the town can't really afford to screw up another lynch by not knowing if this is actually the case or not, hello Zdenek.

Setael: The first thing ICEninja says D2 is that "things haven't changed", and he pretty obviously includes the possibility that he's wrong about implosion. That doesn't spell a guilty result. And yet here you are, suddenly pushing for implosion's lynch with all your might the moment an opportunity arises despite not having made any attacks against him previously. DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR AT ALL GUYS.

[Setael]

A smart mason would fake some suspicion on their partner to keep it from being too ridiculously obvious to scum. Just saying.

Also, I never really considered implosion because ice was pushing him so hard and I thought ice was scum. SOUND FAMILIAR? That's probably because I already said it today. Yes, there's a possibility he didn't get a scum result on implosion. That doesn't change the fact that he had a very solid case on him that is vote worthy in spite of him being wrong about saint.

[Swiftstrike]

@Swift: Why the FoS of Implosion? Your catch is pretty good, why not vote for him?

Because I wanted to read his iso before coming to a decision on a vote given I had no read on him before that point. I have now has a bit of a read on him and feel more comfortable in voting for him

Having reread Ice push on him at the how if saint flipped he would barrel down on implosion hard does seem to indicate he got a scum result off him, having read Implosion I see no real town posting from him to point to in a town favour.

VOTE Implosion

--
I agree with what a few of the others have been saying now is the time for Empking mason buddy to reveal if there is one if EMP is a mason he is a lock for the kill tonight and that leaves us in very bad position if we then get to mylo or lylo with two people claiming to be a mason partner and no way of knowing which person is the real mason.

[Empking]

I agree with what a few of the others have been saying now is the time for Empking mason buddy to reveal if there is one if EMP is a mason he is a lock for the kill tonight and that leaves us in very bad position if we then get to mylo or lylo with two people claiming to be a mason partner and no way of knowing which person is the real mason.

Yes because breadcrumbs don't exist.

[DarthYoshi]

That's L-1 (and Swift, you should have noted that when you voted). Nobody hammer Implosion until he has a chance to refute the case and/or claim.

Also, I am not Emp's mason buddy.

[Empking]

That's L-1 (and Swift, you should have noted that when you voted). Nobody hammer Implosion until he has a chance to refute the case and/or claim.

Also, I am not Emp's mason buddy.

OK, if Implosion flips scum then I'm gunning for you like hell.

1. You're subtle protection of Implosion.
2. Your further protection of Implosion.
3. Trying to SUBTLY out my buddy.

Can somebody explain how giving the scum a choice between whether they kill me or my buddy is a good thing?

[DarthYoshi]

Emp: The "I am not Emp's mason buddy" was in response to Nameless' insinuation that Imp, Neko, Zdenek, or I was lying about our status. I think I have actually been far less vehement in demanding that your buddy out him/herself than other players have been.

I think Implosion needs to respond to the cases that Setael and I are making on him, as they contain significant amounts of new material that he hasn't responded to yet. My vote isn't going anywhere.

[Empking]

Emp: The "I am not Emp's mason buddy" was in response to Nameless' insinuation that Imp, Neko, Zdenek, or I was lying about our status. I think I have actually been far less vehement in demanding that your buddy out him/herself than other players have been.

AKA I was being subtle.
AKA I was being sneaky.
AKA I am scum.

[DarthYoshi]

Emp--looking at my interactions with KTS today, I think my stance has been fairly clear--if it is to keep you as a claimed mason from getting strung up, then your partner should claim today. Better for the scum to have to use up their NK on a claimed mason than have the town mislynch and do it for them. Absent that contingency, I don't think it's urgent.

BUT, when a player insinuates that I may be lying, I'm going to respond. And the only way one can really respond to accusations of lying is, well, to be truthful. Which is not sneaky by definition.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Thats a terrible case Empking. You should always point out when someone is at L-1 if nobody has done so yet, it is not indicative as scum to prevent early lynches without the person being lynched being able to defend himself.

[neko2086]

OK, gunna try to catch up a bit.

As far as speculation on Ice's result goes, I don't think a guilty-implosion is entirely impossible, but it doesn't seem too likely. Based on his first post on D2, I was inclined to think it was--his saying that things haven't changed much would make sense with guilty-implosion since he was campaigning pretty heavily for his lynch on D1. He expresses some doubt, but why shouldn't he? He wouldn't want to out himself as cop, and at any rate a cop can never be entirely sure of his results.

It's the rest of D2 that makes less sense with a guilty-implosion result. He is quite happy to switch to a Saint vote for the remainder of the day. He makes frequent references to a likely Saint-implosion team, but he never really pushes to move back to an implosion lynch.

So if he didn't investigate implosion (or Saint, as he would have gotten an innocent result), I would guess he would have investigated one of Emp and Nameless. Ice never had a clear read on either of them, and they both attracted a fair amount of suspicion on D1. I can see him thinking that, being so sure of implosion as scum, investigating one of these would be more informative. Based on his D2 posts, though, I don't think he investigated Emp. He says he's still worried about him, but wants to leave discussion on him aside. I think there's a slight possibility he investigated Nameless and got a town result. He says that after a reread, he thinks nameless is town, and he goes along with his reasonings to vote Saint.

RRgh. Gotta run, but I'll pick up from here.

[Empking]

It's the rest of D2 that makes less sense with a guilty-implosion result. He is quite happy to switch to a Saint vote for the remainder of the day. He makes frequent references to a likely Saint-implosion team, but he never really pushes to move back to an implosion lynch.

Have you been a Cop before? That doesn't seem that unlikely to me.

[implosion]

Ugh. I'm VT.

Don't hammer me until I have a chance to go through and post ISO's, at least ;_;

[implosion]

Currently typing up some ISOs and a vote count analysis. Will be fairly big.