Newbie 1052 - Endgame

[Workdawg]

Yeah, I did... not sure how I got 503 and 585 mixed up... but thanks. I've been working on an analysis post which I should be posting up in a few mins.

[Workdawg]

I did a re-read of Stels ISO today and tried to look for clues that would indicate who his scumbuddy is. I didn't really find much of interest except an analysis of his reads... so that's what I'm posting.

Stels reads 1: Jan 22 - ISO #9

- in the middle of Mute and my arguments

Stels reads 2: Jan 28 - ISO #17

- this is right after I manage to get myself out of the noose

Player	Alignment	Read 1	Read 2
Sundy slot	unknown	Null tell ATM	Null-read
Mute	town	Scummy	Mixed read. Not a null-read, but it's either aggresive town, or arrogant scum.
Nacho	town	Null-tell, with a bit of a townish vibe	Townish-vibe.
Neuky	unknown	Generally a null-to-town vibe. Flying a bit under the radar...	Townish-vibe, weird gut feeling though
TP42	town	Pro-town, with certain hypocritical elements which he seems as scummy in other people	Town. Probably one of my most solid reads into the game so far
Ty	unknown	Null-tell	Townish-Null
sordros slot	unknown	none because no player yet	Null
Workdawg	unknown	Appears scummy, but I get a newb-townish vibe from him	Newb-town + scummy

Interestingly, his reads seem to be both accurate and aligned with our current suspicions.

The only place where we KNOW he was wrong is his read on Mute, and I think this can be explained simply by finding a good mislynch target and going with it. His first read is when TP42, Mute and I were all bickering over the table and related content. I would guess that he read the argument and picked a horse to try and get mislynched. At the time of his second read, I had just weaseled my way out of the noose and he's still not sure.

He "correctly identified" both nacho and TP42. But has straight up null-tells on Sundy's slot, Ty, and Sordros (with the exception of a "townish-null" for Ty in the second read). Further analysis of his reads on those 3 slots.

Angry Scientist/Asano (Sundy) Read 1:

He gives a "townish vibe" to Angry Scientist but is skeptical if asano had read the whole thread. Gives him a null tell.

Asano (Sundy) Read 2:

Says he can't get a read from asano when 80% of his posts are fluff.

My Comments

His second read was AFTER asano put Mute at L-1 though... I wonder how you end up not getting ANY read on him after that. Suspicious I would say.

Ty Read 1:

Lists his ISO but doesn't comment on any read at all.

Ty Read 2:

Says he's under the radar a bit and acknowldges that he has been having IRL issues and hasn't been posting much. "Sort of builds cases in his character profiles" Somehow ends up with townish-null (see below)

My Comments

I don't know if there is anything really interesting here, but I noticed that Ty had only posted 4 times between the first and second read. His two wall posts against me (ISO 5-6), and two posts of no value (ISO 7-8). What could have changed to make him appear more town? He's doing more scumhunting, and that's why? I suppose that's a possible reason, but I don't know. Stels himself seems to not be impressed by that (based on his comment "sort of builds cases") so I don't know if I buy that as a reason for changing his read.

Also, Ty is the only person who had been posting regularly, infrequently but LOTS of content, who got a null read. Is it a definite link between Stels and Ty, no, but I certainly think it's suspicious that Stels was willing to commit to a read one way or the other (or elaborate on a mixed read in the case of Mute and I) for everyone but Ty and the two vacant spots.

Stels addresses his null reads in ISO 18 when Nacho asks about it and he claims he lumped Ty in with the people who don't post much. He also claims he's just not really sure who scum are.

Naben (sordros) Read 1:

none

veridis (sordros) Read 2:

Says that only 4 posts isn't enough to get a read on him, but finds his position on Ty to be "curious."

My Comments

Nothing to really say about this, I agree that there really wasn't much to go on. I guess he could have elaborated more on what was curious about it, but oh well.

Overall

It seems like "the right" thing to do as scum to give your scum buddy a null, or at least non-committed, read. If something happens and they get lynched, I think you'd want to have the record show that you weren't sure on him. Giving a town read could look suspicious if others disagree and giving a scum read would put unwanted pressure on your buddy while he's still alive.

Thoughts?

[Neuky]

Best use of a table all game! (@Mute - if you're reading this )

One thing that hit me was the "flying under radar" comment about me. This has bothered me for a while now, as it initially came from confirmed scum Stels:

Stels regarding me:

"Neuky: Townish-vibe, weird gut feeling though. Posts at regular intervals. Not too much information, but he does post some content. Generally, I think, the person who is under the radar for the most part"

I didn't notice this before, but I really don't like this. What does it actually mean? (Well we know what his motive was of course) Stels himself says I was posting content, but was also "under the radar". This sounds so scummy in hindsight.

Concerned also has said this of me:

"If I am wrong I would say neuky would be the next most likely suspect. Neuky because of his slight unwillingness to be on the stels hammer at the end of day 1 and his "keeping under the radar attitude"."

- which sounds pretty similar to Stels' own comment. I really don't like this "under the radar" comment. Its a vague accusation of scumminess without actually having to justify it, which is scummy in itself. I understand it's quite a common phrase in this game, but elsewhere where I've seen it, it's been used to described active lurkers and not posters who provide content. The other comment about "slight unwillingness" to hammer seems odd too. - slight?

I'll comment more on your post later but want others to join in too.

[Sundy]

AWESOME TABLE.

more to come after i finish this draft of a paper that's due at 5 pm ahhhh

[Sundy]

Ty Read 1: Lists his ISO but doesn't comment on any read at all.

Yep. I forgot to respond to your #588 comment on that argument, Workdawg. I guess the entire long paragraph from Stels about Ty isn't a case for him being scum-- it's more of a paragraph that includes saying he's bad then a paragraph about why he's bad. But considering that the entire paragraph is a very psychological read on his behavior, it's weird that he still ends up with a null-tell.

on another note, I do disagree with this, as it's too susceptible to WIFOM:

It seems like "the right" thing to do as scum to give your scum buddy a null, or at least non-committed, read. If something happens and they get lynched, I think you'd want to have the record show that you weren't sure on him. Giving a town read could look suspicious if others disagree and giving a scum read would put unwanted pressure on your buddy while he's still alive.

[Workdawg]

Your disagreement is absolutely valid. It certainly depends on how he was playing, and it could be nothing. At the time, neither of them were really under much scrutiny though, so I think it would have been a foolish play to draw attention to his scum buddy.

[Drench]

Ty replaces Concerned! Welcome back, Ty!

[Drench]

The Ninteenth Vote Count - Nine Days Left

Neuky
Workdawg
Sundy
sordros
Ty - 1 - sordros

No Lynch

Not Voting - 4 - Workdawg, Sundy, Ty, Neuky

With five alive, it's three to lynch!

Deadline expires at 12:22pm on the 20th of March, AEDST.

[Workdawg]

Are you joking Drench?! WAT?

[Workdawg]

Also, Welcome back Ty!

[Drench]

Are you joking Drench?! WAT?

I presume this is about the deadline, so I'll be clear: I haven't yet decided on whether the deadline will stand or be extended in either direction. Depends on activity, ladies and gentlemen.

[sordros]

@Sordros, you write as though you were setting a trap to catch scum by hammering without much insight beforehand, and then waiting to see if scum jumped on you. However, Mute did the exact same thing (hammered without much of a reason), and he was town. Why didn't you use the response to Mute's hammer, rather than recreating the same situation and leaving us with 1 player less?

That's a fair question Sundy. I didn't really stop to think about it. I figured re-activating the game once more was worth it. Now that you mention that, I will go back and review those events to see if something stands out.

@Ty: welcome back. I still think you are scum though, so I think I'll keep my vote there for now.

[Ty]

Howdy partners! I’ve been following the game and I’m glad I can step back in to finish what I started. I’d like to give a big shout-out and thank you to Concerned, I was really glad to see he had filled the slot as his defense of my actions and analysis of the situation in Day 2 were precisely spot-on. As an aside, I was extremely amused that as soon as I dropped out the activity sank like a rock, but at least now I don’t have Workdawg’s thirty posts a day to contend with!

Watching Day 2 and Day 3 I can definitely say I’m disappointed with the direction the town has decided to take for its lynchings. Mute should NOT have been lynched and I firmly stand with what Concerned said regarding it. Then it seems in Day 3 there’s been a very misguided push for my lynch. In this post (which I know you all love) I’ll address various points that have been brought up and explain why Sordros is the mafia member we are looking for.

NEUKY

One thing that hit me was the "flying under radar" comment about me. This has bothered me for a while now, as it initially came from confirmed scum Stels:

As you are still town in my eyes I’ll start with this post. If you go back you’ll notice I said the same comment about you before the Day 1 lynch. When I (and I believe Concerned) was using the term, I meant that you haven’t really been pressured or tested about your allegiance in this game, and you still really haven’t. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, it means you’ve down a good job with the game and I am almost completely sure you are town. Pressuring you would be a waste of time at this point when there are much better targets still swimming in the sea. I believe you and Concerned were the only two people to be hesitant about the Mute lynch and as someone who was facepalming myself when that actually happened I’m going to be focusing on the other players.

WORKDAWG

You took the time to make a fairly interesting Post #601 so allow me to post my thoughts about your thoughts.

Overall
It seems like "the right" thing to do as scum to give your scum buddy a null, or at least non-committed, read. If something happens and they get lynched, I think you'd want to have the record show that you weren't sure on him. Giving a town read could look suspicious if others disagree and giving a scum read would put unwanted pressure on your buddy while he's still alive.

This part of your post stinks of WIFOM. At Day 3 we really should be moving past an abstract theoretical discussion of what the scum may or may not have done. You have 25 pages of posting to analyze about the players in this game, and it all leads to a WIFOM statement? I don’t think his Reads are providing as much information as you make them out to be to be quite honest. They have already served a purpose (you do remember his reads were a major part of why he was lynched), but is there really nothing else to go off of at all in this entire game?

From what I’ve seen so far Workdawg, you continue to be a misguided townsperson of sorts. You have a huge cannon but you seem to aim it randomly to the detriment of the game. Your fixation on Mute was wrong , wrong, wrong. Now it seems you’re starting to fixate on me as the lynch. Instead of focusing on one player, you really need to look at the game as a whole. Maybe it’s been easier with the outsider perspective I’ve had for the past few weeks, but I’ve gotten a fairly good sense of where everybody stands which makes my decision a lot easier.

AT ALL

Here’s where we get to the interesting part. Neuky, I assume this is what you’ve been on Concerned’s tail about. Please allow me to respond.

@Concerned - since you've made yourself available.. I think I see something else. Could you (or anyone else for that matter), have a look at Sordros' Mute hammer post and tell me if anything strikes you as odd.

Strike me as odd? More like put the nail in the coffin that Sordros is indeed the scum we’ve been looking for. Let’s take a look at what Sordros posted immediately afterwards:

May I remind you guys that I was the last one to vote for Mute? And that was after quite a long time had passed too. Why would anyone vote for someone if they didn't think they were not scum? So I was not the one to lynch a townie, the majority did.

My point is. Most of us thought Mute was a good scum candidate, now we know we missed. It is just fare to jump to the next candidate. In my case it would be Concerned. He has done nothing but OMGUS me all the time.

Major deflection of blame here. He’s trying to minimize the amount of fault that can be contributed to himself. Once again, this is purely survivalist in nature, striking me immediately as scummy. Instead of analyzing what just happened other than “it’s all our fault not just mine” and congratulating the town on lynching a townie (saying Mute was “a good scum candidate”), he immediately jumps onto his next target: Concerned. The clincher: his sole reason for focusing on Concerned is OMGUS voting (which it isn’t). At Day 3 you don’t start a wagon on somebody because you’re angry they’ve been voting for you. This should immediately set off the warning sirens for everybody in the game.

3) If Mute was town then I was pretty sure my hammer was not going to be very popular and would get jumped at, developing discussion at least around me and my reckless hammer. I have to admit that I was the one to mostly halt that discussion by being so inactive to the point of prodding, but that is not something I planned (I actually asked for a replacement on my other starting game due to bandwidth issues, but I'm trying to finish this game because it has already got too many replacements). Nevertheless, I think this was useful in at least one way: I was half-expecting that the remaining scum would take advantage of my reckless behavior and push hard on a wagon against me as soon as possible, while the memory of a townie hammer was fresh. From that standpoint, Concerned would fall into this profile, and you can see I was not the first one to point that out, as Dawg already spotted that on Post #569. Agreed, Neuky could fall in that category as well, but he was not the first one to propose the wagon and at least is voting to back up his train of thoughts.

This post about having a reason for hammering Mute like that is absolute garbage. Here’s a more reasonable theory as to why someone would push for your lynch after pulling something off like that: it reeks of scum and a Concerned citizen wants to eliminate our last mafia member. Absolutely Concerned fits that profile, shame on the rest of town for not pressing you on that lynch. You didn’t even give time for Mute to give a defense, which is a major no-no.

Has nobody else considered the fact that this is simply a major scum gambit by Sordros? First Workdawg tries to (unsuccessfully) quicklynch me and then Mute quicklynches during Day 2. One of these players is confirmed town and the other is considered town by the remaining players (at least from what I gather). As sad as it is quicklynching has become associated with overeager town players in this game which is exactly what sordros is trying to play it off as.

Unsurprisingly, sordros is now going after the player that is adamantly pushing for his lynch based on his recent hammering. To emphasize from earlier, Concerned isn’t playing an OMGUS vote. Take a look at my ISO #9 where I basically say that the last scum is either sordros or Sundy (in fact that post has been surprisingly accurate, and it’s still relevant even now in Day 3).

And really, THE MOST OBVIOUS REASON SORDROS IS SCUM is found in Neuky’s Post 581:

Ok, I think this game needs is a little more energy. Considering we lynched scum day 1, we have the luxury to be a little reckless.

In the hopes of re-activating this game, I'm ready to jump to my next scum candidate and jump-start this game again.

VOTE: Mute

I bet we will have plenty of discussion from here on.

He spends a lot of time saying how Mute is the scum and should be lynched, then when he lynches him he verbally acknowledges the game will be continuing. So his mouth says Mute is scum but his mind knows otherwise. This is a scum slip, and Neuky is spot on. The fact sordros conveniently ignores replying to this cements my well established suspicions. I ask each player to look at these posts by sordros and how they relate together and convince me he isn't the scum.

VOTE: Vote: sordros

[Ty]

Note: The above reads Vote: sordros (I hadn’t previously used the vote tag, please forgive me). I broke up my thoughts into two posts so consider this Part II of my previous post as it continues where it left off.

There's been noted suspicion of this slot primarily from Sundy so this is my response. It should be noted I heavily dislike the so called "shotgun approach" which is throw a dozen circumstantial situations out at a target and hope one or two resonate with the other players. Though I am almost completely positive sordros is the scum, Sundy is indeed my distant second. Whereas sordros is blatantly scummy, Sundy seems more passively scummy and the shotgun approach is something that just irks me.

Arguments against Concerned

1) Ty's initial statements about Stels being scum
2) Stels follows IC on and off Ty wagon
3) Stels' null-read of Ty
4) Concerned on Neuky
5) Concerned on Mute
6) Concerned wants to lynch Sordros right away
7) Ty is not really a founding member of Stels wagon, as Concerned claims

1) Ty stated in his first post (and reiterated afterwards) that Stels was scum.

This is still bugging me. Sordros and his predecessor both brought up this argument, and Concerned' defense was as follows:

I'll be damned if you paint this slot as scummy because stels made a lucky shot in the RvS.

Except it wasn't Stels who made the lucky shot, it was Ty. Observe:

Hey Angry Scientist, could you explain why you don’t think there will be any scumhunting today? If you don’t believe there is going to be why shouldn’t you start?

And yes, Stels is scum. Based on the game so far, provide me with a reason that would support that statement.

What's town-Ty's motivation here??

I'm sorry it's bugging you. But to be brutally blunt, it's not a scumtell and never has been. I pretty much chose Stels name at random (the fact he may have been quieter than the others at the time and was the SE probably crossed my mind). I could honestly have chosen Drench or Ty or Neuky if I had felt so inclined, as the purpose of the question was in how they responded. Perhaps I haven't made it clear, but it's primary purpose was not to provide me with ammunition to lynch Stels with (ironically).

Also as an aside to current and future players that are looking at this game for meta, this discussion once again supports my continued usage of the RQS instead of the RVS. Even in Day 3 my RQS is still being used while the RVS has rightly been discarded as garbage.

2) Stels follows the IC on and off the Ty wagon

Stels was third to jump on after Mute (#40) and Nacho (#43), and jumped on in (#46). Then Workdawg jumped on, and obviously the conversation changed to Workdawg, which I think was sort of a distraction for town. Even back then, Nacho said in #56 that he thought Workdawg was innocent despite the hammer. Then Stels jumps off Ty's wagon right after Nacho does.

I really don't understand what you're trying to say here that implicates me as scum. Stels hopped on and off my wagon, and this makes Ty/Concerned scum? I'll respond but you need to provide me with a clearer sense of what you're trying to say.

3) Stels' list of reads w/r/t Ty

Concerned addressed it with other players, but not Ty.

Ty
ISO #0: RQS
ISO #1: Only useful thing he said here is that Workdawg and TP42 are concerned with painting a target on themselves for OMGUS.
ISO #2: Something similar to what I said about post number 1, but more SE stuff in general.
ISO #3: "I almost got lynched, why don't you show any emotions?!??!?
:O
:'(
;_;
ISO #4: More stuff again, but also asks questions.
Null-tell.

The thing that strikes me most about this is that he had already voted for Ty, and written paragraphs about why he was suspicious. Why are none of these arguments listed in his ISO, and he just gives a null-tell?

This seems like a question directed at scum Stels, who happens to be dead. If you're trying to scumhunt you need to actually say something other than give me a bunch of open-ended questions. How about you tell me why this makes me scum and then I can demonstrate how that is false (same with #2).

4) Concerned on Neuky

Concerned concludes that the last scum must be in either of the two replacement players, but also indicates a willingness to go after Neuky if that doesn't turn out well. He labels Neuky pro-town but his actual analysis of the slot is a lot more ambiguous, reads as though it could be preparing for LyLo.

Could you provide the post/quote where Concerned says this? I'm in complete agreement with Concerned that the scum is either sordros or Sundy. What I believe Concerned is trying to say (and you are hinting at) is should I somehow be completely and utterly wrong with my analysis and this game went into LyLo, every player would have to be examined thoroughly. As Neuky noted and I discussed in my last post, Neuky HAS flown under the radar and has not been pressured at all. Should the game go into LyLo (or he do something scummy today), this would have to be changed. Once again, complete agreement with Concerned here that all players need to be thoroughly scrutinized at this point. Why does this make me scummy and do you disagree with what Concerned said?

5) Concerned on Mute

Mute
So far I believe he has played fairly town and the current cases on him aren't particularly valid. The whole early table argument was a complete waste of time,

I don't have a problem with him hammering stels

and the current trend of players accusing him of "jumping on the wagon to appear more town" is ridiculous because anyone with half a brain could see this would have the opposite effect.

And a bit later:

@Mute, I do find your hammer a little bit suspicious

, did you consider the consequences of the hammer? Did you expect people to react the way they did to your hammer?

Contradiction.

I know I'm repeating myself, but once again I agree with Concerned. He (and I) knew that Mute was a terrible lynch target and was not the scum. The second quote was probably to apply pressure to Mute to get him talking so that something could be done to divert his lynch. Also Sundy, do you ever not find quicklynches to be at least "a little bit" suspicious? It's only a contradiction because you did a good job of finding two phrases used out of context, but in reality it fits with the greater continuity repeated by the slot that Mute was innocent.

6) Wants to lynch Sordros right away

I don't see why we shouldn't just lynch sordos right now.
He's certainly not worth bringing into lylo.

YES YES YES. YES a billion times over. Besides the fact sordros IS THE SCUM, I wouldn't want him in LyLo either, as he's super super scummy. This is a town tell if anything and I absolutely agree with Concerned here. I'm not sure if he ever voted sordros (probably because he DID want a little discussion before the lynch happened), but I have rectified the situation.

7) Concerned says in the last round that Ty was "one of the founding people on the Stels wagon."

The next votecount of note is the hammer, here we have (at least in my view) three of the most townie players starting the wagon with Sundy and Mute following. I'm mostly posting this to illustrate that TY was more than willing to and indeed was one of the founding people on the stels wagon

The page before he votes Stels, both Nacho and ThePlague voted Stels, so I don't think he qualifies as a "founding" member of the wagon. He's third on by my count, and trying to take Nacho down the whole way.

They had voted Stels previously, but I think discussion of a possible Stels lynch only started to materialize after I put the vote on him. In that respect, I would consider myself a, if not the, founding member of the Stels wagon as well.

I'd also like to clear up the Stels/Nacho situation as I think it's been brought up elsewhere as well. I switched to Stels at the end of Day 1 because I was almost certain Nacho or Stels was the scum. Nacho, or someone else, stated that Nacho generally doesn't do much until the endgame, so I decided to cut him a little slack and wait a day or two to get on his case again. I read a few of the games he had played and he did indeed not do much until the later days, so it made sense that I should continue to apply pressure but not actually lynch. Thus I went after Stels.

Anyway:
@Sordros, a list of analysis player by player will be helpful.

This never happened.

@Concerned, what's your response to my case?

I have given my response, though I wouldn't call it a case so much as "here's some unconnected situations that I'm going to string together and see if they have any merit."

Looking at this post before I hit submit, I do call out Sundy fairly often in a harsh tone. I'm just trying to show why certain things are very misguided and emphasize what needs to be done, but please note I'm not a grouchy mean person. You guys are awesome, I'm glad to be back.

[Workdawg]

@Ty

Sundy brought up the WIFOM nature of the comment you made above, and I fully acknowledge that's what it is. (Posts 604-605)

The rest of that post was really just an attempt to spark some discussion. I agree that there isn't really any substantial information there, but I had hoped it would spark some discussion.

As for focusing on you for the lynch. That's not the case at all. sordros has been my top pick since he hammered Mute, the paragraph from that post about you is longer just because it seemed more suspicious to me. Your slot has been the runner up still, I won't deny that, but it has never eclipsed sordros for that honor. Everyone had been pretty focused on sordros, and when Sundy posted his wall (583), I noticed Concerned has been flying under the radar for a while (and absent) and thought maybe it'd be worth another look at him. If you read my response to his post (588), you'll see that I don't really find what he says to be very damning.

Your post is definitely swaying me back towards sordros and I am going back to look over his most recent posts right now.

[Workdawg]

My thoughts on sordros

Prior to hammering Mute, he doesn't really contribute much. He agrees with Sundy's thoughts on Ty, which are kind of weak anyway. He adds in his own "slip" which is simply Stels saying "... I think someone's just jealous here, you goon." I seem to recall speculating on that comment about how MAYBE Stels was the roleblocker and Ty was the goon and Stels slipped and said Ty was jealous Stels got the PR, but even that is completely ridiculous and I'm pretty sure I acknowledged that fact before.

There's a little bit more speculation on Ty "fingering" Stels as his scum buddy, but I think we can all agree that it's not a tell.

At this point, it's worth noting that sordros has barely mentioned Mute at all. CTRL+F through his ISO and you can see that he states he doesn't like Mute's self vote and he asks about THE TABLE. Aside from that, he says pretty much nothing. In ISO #7 he starts off with what appears to be his fatal slip, claiming he is "... tempted to hammer just to get the game going." Before he actually hammers Mute, he asks Mute for a brief response to the case against him, but then he doesn't wait around for it and hammers him anyway in ISO 13.

In the hammer post, he once again slips up and seems to know that the game will continue after his vote.

After the hammer, there's a lot of information too. As Ty pointed out, sordros immediately starts deflecting blame. He points out that HE didn't lynch a townie, the majority did. While this is true, he was the one to lay down the hammer, and he did it without giving any reason at all, as demonstrated above. Not only that, but he also accuses Concerned of OMGUSing him and tries to deflect suspicion to him. After reviewing the context of this, I agree again with Ty that Concerned was not OMGUSing sordros. He laid out a case for scum to be either Sundy or sordros, and sordros seemed by far the most likely to be scum.

He seems to just be flailing around trying to deflect attention whereever he can get it to stick.

When Neuky and I finally caught on to sordros' big slip, he never actually gave a good reason for this. He addresses it in ISO 17, but even then he doesn't provide a good reason for his wording. He tries to play it off as no big thing, but I don't feel convinced. Sundy brings it up again, and he makes a slightly better case for it (ISO 18), but the more I think about it, the more I feel like it's an inexcusable slip. As town, you don't think "I'm going to lynch the last scum and the game will be reinvigorated!" You think how lynching that scum will end the game and you'll win.

Not once does he make a case for Mute being scum, he hammers him and slips up saying "its to get the game going" and then he hops on the only other person who has any suspicion cast on them (Concerned) without even making his own case. He's actually never posted any original suspicions himself, but only hopped around on what others have posted (except the ridiculous "jealousy slip"). He's spent the entire time simply trying to deflect suspicion from himself to Concerned by mimicking whatever everyone else is saying.

VOTE: sordros

[Workdawg]

Which puts sordros at L-1... FYI

[sordros]

Oh, yes, the almighty WoWs are back . Always strong enough to get Dawg back to your side Ty. I'm not going to follow your same approach, so I won't be replying to every single part of your long post to defend myself. But I will reply to what you point as my "scum slip" by what already Sundy has replied and I think Newky, if not Dawg already noticed too.
You (and Concerned before) have said exactly the same thing!!! "Let's lynch Sordros because he is scum, but even if he is not, it is not worth to bring him into LyLo" which means you are also thinking the game is going to continue! How is that different and why it is not a slip in your lips?
Since there is only one scum left, there is at least one townie that has already said that before. I know I am town, and considering how hard he is trying to push my wagon, I think Ty is scum.
Ty, if you do manage to get me lynched. I wonder how are you going to convince the rest that you are not scum tomorrow then? Have you thought of that yet? Are you going to try even bigger WoWs?

[Drench]

The Twentieth Vote Count - Fire! Earth! Wind! Water! Heart! By your powers combined, I am Captain Waltext!

Neuky
Workdawg
Sundy
sordros - 2 - Ty, Workdawg
Ty - 1 - sordros

No Lynch

Not Voting - 2 - Sundy, Neuky

With five alive, it's three to lynch!

Deadline expires at 12:22pm on the 20th of March, AEDST.

[Neuky]

Hi again Ty - quite bizarre you are back, but a good thing (I think!). Its been helpful getting you to shed some light on the "Stels is scum" comment, and your take on what's been happening recently.

While you naturally defend Sundy's case on you, I agree with Dawg that I saw it as a good pro town post that got some decent discussion going when the game was stalling a bit.

Sordros' reply impressed me to a certain extent at the time, enough for me to unvote anyway, and re-examine the other possibilities, but I'm afraid his posts since then haven't really inspired much confidence.

Ironically, its his last post that has clarified a major issue I had about those "scum-slips".

You (and Concerned before) have said exactly the same thing!!!

"Let's lynch Sordros because he is scum, but even if he is not, it is not worth to bring him into LyLo"

which means you are also thinking the game is going to continue! How is that different and why it is not a slip in your lips?
Since there is only one scum left, there is at least one townie that has already said that before. I know I am town, and considering how hard he is trying to push my wagon, I think Ty is scum.

It's actually Sordros' bolded part above that made me look at this yet again.. While it's factually incorrect - if Concerned had said that, I would have thought that was a perfectly valid statement. What he DID say was

"I don't see why we shouldn't just lynch sordos right now.
He's certainly not worth bringing into lylo."

- which can be interpretated as knowing that the game wouldn't end - BUT - can also be interpretated as simply a wish not to take someone into lylo because of their playing style. Compare this to Sordros' statement about "re-activating", and "jump-start"-ing the game. I think this is a much stronger tell.

I'll readily admit that it's Ty's recent words that have encouraged me to re-assign the importance to Sordras' slip - I thought it was a good tell at the time, until I allowed myself to get distracted with what Concerned had said.

I'm currently leaning Sordros again. @Sundy could you not hammer yet, but provide your opinion?

[Sundy]

Blast from the past! Welcome back, Ty. Below, please find my response to your defense. Btw, I didn't find your post grouchy or mean at all. Though this site sometimes descends into annoying ad-hominem attacks, this thread has been good. However, you may not like where this post is going next.

1) Ty stated in his first post (and reiterated afterwards) that Stels was scum.

Spoiler:

I'm sorry it's bugging you. But to be brutally blunt, it's not a scumtell and never has been. I pretty much chose Stels name at random (the fact he may have been quieter than the others at the time and was the SE probably crossed my mind). I could honestly have chosen Drench or Ty or Neuky if I had felt so inclined, as the purpose of the question was in how they responded. Perhaps I haven't made it clear, but it's primary purpose was not to provide me with ammunition to lynch Stels with (ironically).

Also as an aside to current and future players that are looking at this game for meta, this discussion once again supports my continued usage of the RQS instead of the RVS. Even in Day 3 my RQS is still being used while the RVS has rightly been discarded as garbage.

I went out on a limb when I first made this argument, but--fortuitously enough--the player in question has returned! Something odd: You say that RQS is better than RVS because the latter is "garbage," and the former is "still being used." But the only thing being discussed today is whether or not your question was a scum-tell. So from your perspective how does that prove RQS is more helpful? I agree that you weren't actually trying to lynch Stels with those posts, but surely that assumption is implicit in any case that links him with you, no? As for why you chose Stels, we have to take your word for it.

2) Stels follows the IC on and off the Ty wagon

Spoiler:

I've played games where someone followed the IC on and off the wagon, keeping their finger to the wind to tell which way to go. They were called out on that, and turned out to be scum. The argument applies to Stels, not you, but I brought it up because I was specifically examining your interactions, and the motivation for Stels to jump on and off your bandwagon.

3) Stels' list of reads w/r/t Ty

Spoiler:

This seems like a question directed at scum Stels, who happens to be dead. If you're trying to scumhunt you need to actually say something other than give me a bunch of open-ended questions. How about you tell me why this makes me scum and then I can demonstrate how that is false (same with #2).

See my #604. Basically he seems to be inside of your mind in his posts, offering detailed accounts of the way you were thinking. After all that, he still has a null-read with no comments on your ISO. You don't like when I bring up Stels' play in my case on you, but imo it's very helpful to examine known scum for patterns.

4) Concerned on Neuky

Spoiler:

Could you provide the post/quote where Concerned says this? I'm in complete agreement with Concerned that the scum is either sordros or Sundy. What I believe Concerned is trying to say (and you are hinting at) is should I somehow be completely and utterly wrong with my analysis and this game went into LyLo, every player would have to be examined thoroughly. As Neuky noted and I discussed in my last post, Neuky HAS flown under the radar and has not been pressured at all. Should the game go into LyLo (or he do something scummy today), this would have to be changed. Once again, complete agreement with Concerned here that all players need to be thoroughly scrutinized at this point. Why does this make me scummy and do you disagree with what Concerned said?

There are two posts I'm thinking about:

I'm not absolutely certain about you, for the simple reason that you seem like the type of player who is smart enough to hide it well if you are scum but for now

I find neuky to be pro-town.

To summarise my thoughts I would bet that our last scum is in {Sordas, Sundy}. I come to this conclusion via process of elimination, some of the subtle things stels has said as well as the general attitude of the other players. If I am wrong I would say neuky would be the next most likely suspect. Neuky because of his slight unwillingness to be on the stels hammer at the end of day 1 and his "keeping under the radar attitude".

It's not that you or Concerned are saying players need to be examined, it's that you give town-reads on a few players, suggest a few others may be scum, and then there's Neuky. For both you and Concerned, he's a player that's "under the radar," and that "hasn't been pressured." And for the record, Neuky never "noted" that he'd flown under the radar, he expressed suspicion about the vagueness of the claim. I don't disagree with you or Concerned insofar as every player needs to be examined. What I disagree with is keeping a read of a player ostensibly a town-read (notice how Concerned only bolds the part about the town read), even while simultaneously expressing ambiguities and quiet uncertainties on one player in particular, who conveniently "hasn't been pressured," and presumably won't be pressured until LyLo comes around, and you drop your town read.

5) Concerned on Mute

Spoiler:

I know I'm repeating myself, but once again I agree with Concerned. He (and I) knew that Mute was a terrible lynch target and was not the scum. The second quote was probably to apply pressure to Mute to get him talking so that something could be done to divert his lynch. Also Sundy, do you ever not find quicklynches to be at least "a little bit" suspicious? It's only a contradiction because you did a good job of finding two phrases used out of context, but in reality it fits with the greater continuity repeated by the slot that Mute was innocent.

So you say there's no contradiction at all, and Concerned "knew" he was town. And at the same time, the reason there's a contradiction is because he's "probably" trying to pressure Mute, all with the intention of getting him out of a hot spot.

6) Wants to lynch Sordros right away

Spoiler:

YES YES YES. YES a billion times over. Besides the fact sordros IS THE SCUM, I wouldn't want him in LyLo either, as he's super super scummy.

Workdawg defended Concerned's post saying that he didn't want a bad player in LyLo. That makes sense. But how does it make sense not to want a player in LyLo when they're super super scummy? Isn't it more of an advantage to have obvscum than a fiendish trickster?

7) Is Ty a founding member of the Stels wagon?

Spoiler:

They had voted Stels previously, but I think discussion of a possible Stels lynch only started to materialize after I put the vote on him. In that respect, I would consider myself a, if not the, founding member of the Stels wagon as well.

In the pages after Nacho started the Stels bandwagon, 3 other players echoed it.

Unvote, Vote: Stels
Where are all of your scum reads...?
And can get that same list with the options (town, scum) with no in-between?

@Stels - you did say earlier that when you give advice its generally for everyone - can you explain how this post is in the interests of town?

I had thought this was suspicious, but I don't think that Stels would communicate so blatantly. Of course, that is subject to WIFOM, and I'm not even going to trying to outguess anyone. Although the "just saying" definitely seems like he's trying very hard to make it appear as SE-talk to a newbie.

Plague's said it. I've got a serious feeling of you and him buddying up. With each of your posts towards Dawg I gather that assumption, hence why I said that.

You came in after that. What was your read of Stels prior to these posts? I've already quoted it!

ISO #3: "I don't think you're [Stels] the scum at all."
ISO #4: Suggest that the pressure you applied to Stels was mostly because he was the SE (you're going for Nacho's lynch)
ISO #4: Agree with Neuky on a Stels/Dawg partnership (you're going for Workdawg and vote him in the next post)
ISO #6: "Stels too is a bit quiet"
ISO #6: Mock Mute for casting suspicion on Stels

And then your vote post:

On a similar note, I have mixed feelings about Stels. As the other SE he’s definitely faced a lot less criticism than I have and has been much more under the radar. He hasn’t been lurking but he hasn’t necessarily stood out either. Also, it’s hard to differentiate between the two, but I have a gut feeling his advice is also being used to help out a scum partner in distress, possibly Workdawg.

I think it’s quite possible that either Stels (SE) or the IC position is scum based on the above and reading their posts throughout the game. My advice to fellow town players is do not blindly follow these positions because they have more experience, as I believe there is a good chance one of them is playing against you. Vigilance, my friends, vigilance.

And then you left the game.

#1: Your comment on RQS/RVS is off, your 2 defenses add up to your word and the fact that you didn't want to lynch Stels right then, and you didn't explain the point of the pressure
#2 & #3: circumstantial because they rely on Stels' play, but looking at known scum is helpful
#4: I don't disagree with examining players carefully, but I don't think that's your only motive
#5: You say there's no contradiction and then you acknowledge there's a contradiction
#6: Didn't even use the reasonable defense that Workdawg already raised
#7: I think I've conclusively proved that you were not a founding member, that half of the players expressed suspicion before you did, that your muted suspicion of Stels before then was all with the larger purpose of getting Nacho and then Dawg lynched, and then you left as soon as you voted on Stels, with a vote & argument that had 10% of the effort you put into your Nacho/Dawg posts

I thought my case had merit before, and after Ty's defense I have no doubt.

VOTE: Ty

L-1.

[Drench]

The Twenty First Vote Count - CURSE YOU BBCODE

Neuky
Workdawg
Sundy
sordros - 2 - Ty, Workdawg
Ty - 2 - sordros, Sundy

No Lynch

Not Voting - 1 - Neuky

With five alive, it's three to lynch!

Deadline expires at 12:22pm on the 20th of March, AEDST.

I WANTED TO URL THIS, BUT THE AREA CODE FAILED WHEN I PREVIEWED IT. D:

[Neuky]

No hammer then - thanks Sundy
So no pressure then...

The first thing that strikes me is that my two top townie reads are now on seperate wagons..
The thing is too, that I agree with Dawg that the last scum is between the Ty and Sordros slots.
What Sundy says, makes sense though - let's say we lynch Sordros and it turns out he was town, that leaves a scum Ty, who is quite an experienced player, to influence the survivors in lylo. While if we lynch Ty and it turns out he is town - no offence Sordros, but if you are scum, you'd almost certainly get lynched no matter who you NK'd. (& Ty would be happy with that if he's town of course).. This only works if scum is in this pair of course, but I'd be surprised if Sundy or Dawg was scum.
Anyway, I'm going to read everyone's voting posts again before making up my mind.

[sordros]

@Sundy: as usual, your comments are completely logical and easy to follow. I completely agree with your post above.

@Neuky: I was just about to say something similar, kind of following up on my previous question to Ty. I don't mind if you guys lynch me today as long as Ty gets lynched tomorrow. I'm pretty certain he is scum and this would count as a victory to me as town. Like you said, I would be really surprised if Sundy or Dawg was scum. I wouldn't be so sure about you, but I don't get a scummy vibe from your side either.

[Neuky]

Like you said, I would be really surprised if Sundy or Dawg was scum. I wouldn't be so sure about you, but I don't get a scummy vibe from your side either.

That last post does sound like hedging your bets to me. Something scum have to do of course, as you may well be preparing for lylo already, as I indicated I was seriously considering voting Ty..
Anyway - in the spirit of the game I've decided to vote for who I think is scummiest, and not vote tactically. If we have it wrong, it'll be up to the survivors to work it out (but I'd strongly be considering Ty).
Sorry Sundy - I do think your case on Ty is a good one, but Sordos' last few posts have swung it for me. Dawg is right, he's been mimicking a lot of opinions (his last post is a perfect example..), and then there's THE scum slip...

Was it as big a tell as we think? Let's find out:

VOTE: sordros