Newbie 1070 - Game Over

[barefoot-fighter]

Don't know how to say this, but real life demands me to leave this game. Sorry.

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count

Not Voting (7) - barefoot-fighter, Stels, T-Bone, Rain, Ellyssa, splitfarvle, Quaroath

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

This doubles as an updated player list, T-Bone.

Now searching for a replacement for barefoot-fighter.

[Ellyssa]

@barefoot Sorry to hear, hope everything's fine.
@T-Bone When will you be V/LA?
@muh

My summary/reads from D1 lynch/NK:
- Votes for muh lynchwagon: split (#105), T-Bone (#146), Ellyssa (#154), Jack Forman (#167), Rain (#213)
- Other votes for muh that were retracted: split (#39-#61, RVS), barefoot (#64-#81, OMGUS)
--> barefoot did NOT vote for anyone after retracting that OMGUS vote on Muh early on in the day. I find that a little suspicious, like a Mafia member not sure who to vote on, as they know everyone else is clean. However, she had the opportunity to hammer muh as she made 3 posts between #167 and #213, and she did not, and would have not had to make a case for unvoting/shifting her vote as she wasn't already voting someone else before. It would have been easy for Mafia to just hammer there and go into night with a known (to them) mislynch.
- muh did not have any suspects, his town reads were Jack, Split, T-bone, Rain (#149). He also commented in , his last post, that muh seemed to be hurrying the town because he wanted to get to night quickly.
- Jack's reads: (#136) At that point, Quaroath seemed to be his main suspect, with reservations on Muh, Rain, T-Bone. Looking at his ISO, those four people are the ones he pressed near the end. I still have a mostly town read on Quaroath and Rain, and a slightly scummy one on T-Bone. I think since he died, there's a good chance there's at least one scum in that group of 3 (4 minus muh) though. Also, his last post continued to accuse muh and T-bone of essentially lurking.

@T-Bone I'll start day 2 with some questions to you. I draw the most lines to you from how Day/Night 1 concluded - You were on the lynchwagon (I supported it too, mind you), and also on Jack's suspect list. Jack's very last post also attacked you, and you dared him to vote you if he thought you were Mafia, so you certainly had the motive to NK him.

Can you please explain this quote?

I'm not gonna say if I'm town or scum, because the moment you say you're town, you become a safe lynch at this stage of the game.

I do not follow this logic at all.. everyone here would say they're town, regardless if they were actually scum or town. There aren't any 3rd party SKs here or whatever. It's like you're hesitant to look too townie or something. It was also an interesting unprovoked reaction, I don't think anyone even asked you if you were town, Jack just said in #206 that "if you really are town guys then help us so that we don't have to kill off anymore town than we have to." And from that you suddenly seemed hesitant about your role?

Anyway. To me you leapfrogged ( ) over barefoot as my opening suspect because of the frustration at the end bits of Day 1 as well as dubious quotes like that one above. And the one you opened Day 2 with (#221). So others have to be the one that scumhunt? Perhaps so you can just agree with them to look townie? What's your current opinion? Who are your main suspects? Anything/anyone stand out to you?

[Alduskkel]

Nachomamma8 replaces barefoot-fighter.

[Ellyssa]

EBWOP, the broken quote part for muh and #209 was how he said T-Bone wanted to quickly get to Night 1, not muh.

Also welcome, Nacho!

[T-Bone]

Thanks Mod.

I'll be kinda V/LA Tues-Wed-Thurs. Spring break and such. Not sure how much internet time that'll allot me but alas, I am addicted so who knows? Point is, I'll be quiet for a few days, though thanks to the length of the day phase and the slow speed of the game I won't need to be replaced.

What part of "then you become a safe lynch" did you not follow? I realize that there are no 3rd parties. But what if I was a JoaT or something? I don't wanna be considered a safe lynch. (Yes I am well aware there are no JoaTs). And well that was my mistake on how I worded it. I meant to imply claiming vanilla, not just town. But I don't see a point in arguing theory. Doesn't help us scum hunt.

What I find convenient Ellyssa is that you immediately point out "Jack's dead, T-Bone's got the motive." Well duh, isn't exactly what scum would like? Then it becomes a game well that's what they want you to think, because that's what they want you to think, because that's what they want you to think, etc. etc. etc.

Now since Jack was town, he has no knowledge of who everyone else's alignment was. I wouldn't be considering his suspect list as the end all be all here. Goes back to the 'that's what scum want us to think, no they want us to think this" thing.

Now I know I'm not scum, so it wasn't a revenge kill on my part. So if scum wanted us to think "Bone did it! Bone did it!" you've planted those seeds quite nicely Ellyssa.

Anyway not everyone has checked in. I'm not gonna go rattling off that "so-and-so" is scum.

[Stels]

@Ellyssa: I just want to point out one thing. Mafia will not hammer this early for 1 mislynch, unless they're idiots. That's like painting a target on their backs.
Pretty much, the only coinciding people from your analysis is Rain and T-Bone. Although I'm pretty sure that at least one person from the scum team wasn't on the wagon, like barefoot-fighter...

@Nacho: HOLY CRAP. Nacho! You're back for more games with me! ;D

[T-Bone]

Just thought of this. One thing to consider about the night-kill.

We all pretty much wrote Jack off as town. The likelihood of Jack getting lynched Day 2 was low. With Jack alive, that was one less mislynch scum could possibly get Day 2.

It's an interesting proposition, and I think I know where my vote is going today. Just waiting on the last 4 people to check in.

[Stels]

@T-Bone: True. We pretty much did that.

[Quaroath]

I'm not really surprised jack bit the bullet. if there is one person who the majority of the game feels is town, it paints a big target on that persons back.

Gonn alook back at vote patterns and reread in light of the alignments.

[Rain]

There's little point in discussing motives behind NK. I content it's mostly WIFOM.

My reads are all over the place. Digging deeper, brb.

[Ellyssa]

@T-Bone Yeah, it may have just been a "random" night kill out of the townier-looking townies *shrugs*. Just trying to evoke some discussion out from D1 happenings, what else are you supposed to do otherwise but read their posts in a confirmed-townie light? What I was doing by looking for people with motives to kill Jack, was trying to figure out who would be more likely to not want him around in endgame, because he was a polarizing figure initially.

And no, I still don't really get the safe lynch thing with regards to theoretical 3rd parties. Because the Mafia know exactly who are the actual townies regardless of what the townies might say. And there is no other logical unprovoked (ie, not at L-1) claim on D1 for regular townies, power roles, or mafia besides "vanilla townie" anyway. So that claim is meaningless in terms of convincing others to look more townie in their reads. But whatever.

Agreed to waiting for everyone else to check in, though.


@Rain I grant there's a good amount of WIFOM though, but don't think ignoring the NK is the way to go, though I read the current(?) site meta may be to ignore it. That seems awfully "sweep it under the rug and keep it hush-hush" and I don't understand why, sure there's WIFOM but you can apply that to tons of arguments in the regular game anyway. Not saying it's the be all and end all solid evidence, but I think throwing that out entirely is flawed, and giving Mafia a free pass in that aspect of the game. To me it seems knowing that the players in the game analyze that sort of thing, may also make the Mafia second guess themselves and perhaps kill "less than optimal" targets in later nights so less suspicion is cast upon them, so the WIFOM goes both ways. I think it goes hand in hand with vote analysis at the start of a day though.


@Stels Nod to Barefoot. But since barefoot replaced out I'm not attacking her slot before her replacement gets the chance to post. Awaiting eagerly though. Just too bad the replacement wasn't made within the night so Nacho could have read up already and hit the ground running. And you may be right about that one mislynch thing. I just thought it's a bit weird she didn't vote muh for trying to bandwagon her to try to save herself (he tried #197, she posted back to him in #208), when she had OMGUS'd him back earlier after RVS had ended (kinda) in #64 when she realised he was voting for her. Then again, not sure if that's more of a towntell or scumtell now, since she never actually voted anyone else.. voteless after that OMGUS was withdrawn, all the way to the end of day 1.

Argh, I said I wouldn't be attacking the slot yet. /fin

[Stels]

The information that she gave us is sufficient enough to judge her replacement on many levels.
The fact that she was not confident with voting already implicates scummy behavior in my book.
You're not doing anything to her slot, you're just discussing her faults and errors that might suggest what she truly was which may be hidden away by Nacho in the future. So, at least there's something there.

[splitfarvle]

Still no defense. I don't see any bandwagon forming on anyone else in the near future. Also, I'm getting a bit bored in this game. Gotta make something happen.

Die scum.

Unvote
Vote: Muh316

About not seeing a bandwagon form, did you not notice barefoot-fighter was at two votes when you posted this? She had just started posting again, and it seemed like Ellyssa (hope I'm not putting words into her mouth) would've been happy to contribute to a bandwagon on barefoot as evidenced in #203 and #204.

In #153 you list barefoot as scummy, did you change your mind?

I don't think we should discount how quickly this hammer came. Posts weren't coming fast, but there were new developments.

[Ellyssa]

@Split I was, though I think I wouldn't have right then because of the way muh immediately jumped onto it without a reason in #197 just after Stels did in #196, which made him seem really scummy. That seemed scummy because just before that, I had said,

But you know what? I think I'll let my vote sit where it is for now pending,
a) Meaty post from muh,
b) Bandwagon on barefoot, my other suspect so far, or
c) A re-read on Quaroath/Rain/Stels' ISOs giving some new insight on him, or one of his two accusers.
( d) Extenuating circumstances. Deadline lynch, someone slips up, etc. )

and it seemed obvious to me that he was trying to invoke my b) to get me off his wagon, but it didn't even come with a reason or anything.

At the time I was also thinking that barefoot not hammering was a towntell, though as pointed out she really didn't vote at all. But muh didn't vote anyone else outside of RVS either up to that point, and HE turned up town..

[splitfarvle]

I did catch your hesitation in the post right before Rain hammered, I was just surprised that he decided to hammer because it seemed like new things were happening, albeit slowly. I just want to know why he hammered at that point instead of letting things unfold, or perhaps even helping them unfold since he previously declared suspicions about barefoot.

[Rain]

I didn't see a Barefoot bandwagon forming, in the sense that even if there were votes on her, I don't envision 3 other people switching/placing votes on her. Since muh was acting scummier (not much scum hunting to be proud of, no defense, not even a rage post) than barefoot (whom I pegged mainly for fence sitting), I was pretty confident.

I guess I don't mind NK discussion that much, unless it becomes the main point of your case against someone.

School work is starting to catch up. Might not post before Wednesday.

[T-Bone]

Alright going on vacation, so here are my final thoughts. They echo pretty much what I outlined in my last post about some of the things Ellyssa was doing. Pointing out that Jack must have been killed by the person he was accusing. Frankly, that's some heavy seed planting. I don't like it. There is no reason for a member of the town to plant seeds. There's a different between asking a question to provoke discussion, and seed planting. In #227 you said "well you had motive to kill him T-Bone." Now one could argue that you didn't intend to type it like that and try to rub it off as your first time playing.

But every post you have made in this game has been concise and deliberate. I hazard to say you've been too careful to look scummy. So much that you look uber town. And that my friends is a dangerous thing. As a member of the town you should worry about making mistakes or looking scummy. Your goal isn't to survive, your goal is to nail scum. Meanwhile the mafia's goal is to survive.

Even though I didn't say anything, you have been the one person to stick out to me Ellyssa. I didn't say anything till now, because I wanted you to post carefree and see what would happen. Your first post in Day 2 gave me the answers I was looking for.

Vote: Ellyssa

The To Long, Didn't Understand version of this post: I feel she is scummy. Gut feeling and stuff. Bam I voted. Bye.


OOC Note:

As for my V/LA. Going on vacation with my special lady, so computer time will be limited. I'll at least be reading the game to try and stay in the loop. Maybe I'll make an activity post sometime this week. I trust you scummy people won't lynch me in the meantime lol. Cheers my frenemies, see ya'll at the end of the week.

[Ellyssa]

Hehe, enjoy your trip. I'll post a rebuttal tomorrow or sometime soon.

[Stels]

At the time I was also thinking that barefoot not hammering was a towntell, though as pointed out she really didn't vote at all. But muh didn't vote anyone else outside of RVS either up to that point, and HE turned up town..

Muh =/= Barefoot

Other than that, not much to post >_>

[Stels]

Will post more info and stuff sometime during friday and onwards when I actually have enough time not to worry about assignments.

[Ellyssa]

Iiiincoming WoT! @T-Bone #242 Don't worry about answering this before you get back from the vacation. Enjoy it first! I mean you no harm, I just want to lynch you! I won't vote you before you get back and have a chance to reply to it at least, so there shouldn't be a quick lynch.

If this becomes relevant, this is my first game of Mafia ever, anywhere, though I have read a fair number (like 10) on Mafiascum. Now to my points.

It seems to me you're using the Too Townie fallacy on me. I posted what I did as a straightforward analysis of the N1 and D1 flips, as what other new information IS there otherwise? Has anyone else come up with anything else? You have, but that was just about entirely OMGUS on my point because I shed light on you to begin the day, as it was either you or Rain from the connections I pointed out, and I had more of a scummy read on you at that point. And I do call it OMGUS because your second post reply (#232) fairly clearly indicated the upcoming accusation.

Frankly, that's some heavy seed planting. I don't like it. There is no reason for a member of the town to plant seeds. There's a different between asking a question to provoke discussion, and seed planting. In #227 you said "well you had motive to kill him T-Bone." Now one could argue that you didn't intend to type it like that and try to rub it off as your first time playing.

I darn well intended to type it like that. I don't see why not. He was at odds with you near the end of the day, you can't deny that, and I'm not sure whether to classify your seemingly overly defensive post as pure OMGUS or a panicked attempt to get me off your wagon. Maybe you don't like it because it hits too close to home? Pointing out a connection I observed is seed-planting, now? You do realise that's how almost every game on the site is played, looking at vote patterns and relationships (or lack of) between players in the game?

But every post you have made in this game has been concise and deliberate. I hazard to say you've been too careful to look scummy. So much that you look uber town. And that my friends is a dangerous thing. As a member of the town you should worry about making mistakes or looking scummy. Your goal isn't to survive, your goal is to nail scum. Meanwhile the mafia's goal is to survive.

Even though I didn't say anything, you have been the one person to stick out to me Ellyssa. I didn't say anything till now, because I wanted you to post carefree and see what would happen. Your first post in Day 2 gave me the answers I was looking for.

(I assume you mean too careful to

not

look scummy, and as a member of the town I

shouldn't

worry about making mistakes, else I'm not quite sure what you mean in the first paragraph of this quote, sorry.)

My goals in the game so far have been to point at who I find most scummy. I was wrong in muh flipping scum, as was everyone else on the lynchwagon, but I'm satisfied that the reasons we lynched him were solid at the time. Yes I have been somewhat deliberate, I feel that way lends itself to less misinterpretation. I've tried to explain the reason everytime I swap or do not swap votes, for one, so others could decide if I were right and come on board too, or as Stels did recently, overturn/reopen my thoughts on barefoot. Do you prefer a haphazard method with mostly short posts and dubious voting reasons like you've done so far (I'll come back to this) instead? And we shouldn't worry about being scummy? Why not? That causes mislynches, my friend! How did that work out for muh and his unafraid townie vote on barefoot? Earned him the hammer vote from Rain.

Lessee. My starting post on D2 was made about 12 hours after day broke. Let's say I didn't make the post, or made some irreverent, cute comment like you did. And let's say from that you didn't attack me back. Let's see what OTHER content there has been up to this point. We're like 65-70 hours into Day 2 now depending on when I finish this post. So nearly the 3 day prod thing.
- You: Two fluff posts early, and one IIOA post later on (about Jack being one less mislynch cause he was totally townie).
- Quaroath and Rain and Stels: All busy with work/school etc and promising reads at a later day, after hammering the hell out of each other on D1.
- Split: A couple questions toward Rain. Only other D2 scumhunter outside of us two going back and forth so far.
- Nacho: Replaced in, nary a tweet yet. Even muh has posted more since D2.

Really? And you're voting me for being concise (and deliberate). Right. You yourself talked about the slow speed of the game in #230 . Not to mention that's the exact opposite of a typical scum playstyle of coasting under the radar. I agree with Jack and Stels, you've been fluffing your post count with inane one-liners and sarcastic comments and "hurry hurry so I can get to night" posts, except when you've been attacked like now. Whereas refusing to do townie things like post your list of reads when asked - you want to know why that isn't townie?
- If you are town, and had gotten NKed, we'd have gotten a lot less info from your death. Look at this discussion that's started from Jack's list.
- There's an opinion that says that helps scum figure out who's townie and who isn't and thus who to target. That's a fallacy in small, open, clearly-factioned games, they're not complex enough for such a thing.
-

It lets you waffle about and coast through D1, and then fall on whatever side of the fence you choose that is more convenient for you, in subsequent days, when it matters.

About my point about your dubious reads point earlier. You have two votes so far this game.
- One was on Stels for being second to vote (discounting Rain's RVS vote) on Jack. Flimsy reason as hell.
- You then follow it up with a vote on muh, though coincidentally you are the second vote on this townie's wagon this time. So it's not okay when others do it for whatever legit reason they have, but then I get OMGUSed when I attack you partly for being on this wagon, and pooling that with other circumstantial evidence to make my case?

And yes, it's OMGUS (at least the way I see it currently, lacking supposed evidence from other days, even though I haven't voted you yet. Reason I haven't is we're still waiting for barefoot's replacement to make a post. And you're away now.

Here's a question for you then. I'd like to hear why your vote was

not

OMGUS. You did not give Stels a way to defend his vote (though you did ask for onehere, cause an idiotic reason like "being the second person on X's wagon" being the central reason for your vote on him cannot be defended against. And your votes on him, and me, so far have been that kind of vote. He can't just say "oh, I didn't mean to be the second vote" or something. How do you defend against that? You can't. Very easy to pretend to be "scumhunting". And now you say,

But every post you have made in this game has been concise and deliberate.

and

Even though I didn't say anything, you have been the one person to stick out to me Ellyssa. I didn't say anything till now, because I wanted you to post carefree and see what would happen. Your first post in Day 2 gave me the answers I was looking for.

This implies you have examples from D1.

Give me examples I can defend against. I can't defend against a "gut feeling" any more than Stels could randomly being second on a wagon.

Not to mention your other gut feeling on D1 (muh) was dead wrong, if you are town. Don't just make sweeping blanket statements and expect everyone to believe you. You have to prove to town that you ARE town just as much as everyone else does, or you'll become a mislynch like muh, and that is decidedly anti-town. I've been concise and wordy haven't I? Should be lots of material for you to analyze and pick out some quotes from. What burning question did the first post in D2 give you the "answer" to? If I've quietly stuck out to you up to this point, there must be plenty of examples from D1 that have pinged your scumdar too, right?

Lastly, a good chunk of my opening D2 post, about your #211 quote, was directed to the last question thrown your way just before D1 ended, just to make sure it didn't get swept under the carpet, since it did not get answered then. Your logic works in more complex setups but totally breaks apart in this newbie game's open one, which was why you were called on it by more than one player. Plus no one HAD brought up claiming up till that point.

[Ellyssa]

EBWOP, I realise concise and wordy (at the end) are antonyms, but whatever. The gist of it is there!

[splitfarvle]

Things have gotten unexpectedly busy the last few days, I hope to start posting with gusto either tomorrow or friday.

[Rain]

Vote: Stels

From #102 to #156, you pegged Jack to be scum then town, for no reason at all, which is easy for scum to do since they know who's town. What's more suspicious is that you've list him as town right after Ellyssa and I did.