Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[implosion]

Damn... I put a lot of work into that table, Empking...

Not gonna put him at L-1 just yet in case of self-hammering. We still have time.

First of all, it was clearly prompted by the wagon on him at the time

This is pretty much all the evidence necessary... if you're scummy enough to get the first giant bandwagon on day one, it doesn't exactly make sense to think that you can draw the nightkill by claiming mason, a role that only helps the town by confirming you as town to one other person.

@neko - the "reasoning" behind the number of scum per wagon is psychologically what I think scum would do when faced with each bandwagon. If, for example, there's a fairly large-sized wagon on town with a number of townies on it, I'd expect some scum to be on it too depending on how big the wagon is.

[Empking]

This is pretty much all the evidence necessary... if you're scummy enough to get the first giant bandwagon on day one, it doesn't exactly make sense to think that you can draw the nightkill by claiming mason, a role that only helps the town by confirming you as town to one other person.

er... not really?

[neko2086]

Hm, yeah I think we need to lynch emp, but please nobody hammer anytime soon. I have things I need to get done today, and I'm still waiting on a response from King and zdenek.

[Nexus]

Votecount the Twenty-Fourth:

Empking (3): KingTwelveSixteen, Setael, nameless
implosion (2): Darth Yoshi, Empking
Setael (1): implosion
Zdenek (1): neko2086

Not voting: implosion, Zdenek


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. 5 to no lynch. Empking is at L-2. Deadline is 8pm (GMT) on the 23rd March 2011.

As ever, any problems, let me know.

[Zdenek]

The questions I've been asked about Empking are now irrelevant. if anyone still wants me to answer, say so.

Zedenek--so you're comfortable possibly putting us in lylo just to avoid having Emp in lylo?
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earlier today you said there's almost no doubt emp will be killed tonight. Now we need to lynch emp to make sure he doesn't live to tomorrow.

Had Empking not been lying, I think that the best play would have been for the other mason to claim today (in which case, if we believed them, one of them would have been nk'ed). Assuming that didn't happen, Empking could be scum, in which case lynching him would be good, and if he was a mason, then, if we lynched Empking, his buddy would have been confirmed tomorrow provided that there were breadcrumbs and that he wasn't nightkilled. Considering the relationships of other players with Empking, it seemed like the chances of the other mason being nk'ed were pretty much random (at worst 1/4, which isn't too bad). I think these are both better scenarios than having to decide in lylo (assuming we mislynch today) if the two claimed masons (one of whom is quite suspicious) are telling the truth. This could have happened if we neither lynched Empking today nor had his buddy claim.

As far as the Saint business is concerned, I was V/LA and didn't have time to respond because the day ended so quickly.

I'm fine with voting Empking when we are ready to end the day.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

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King, I've forgotten that you've made the same call for a lynch on emp as zdenek. Looking back you said we all agreed we'd kill him if he made it too far. Did we? I don't remember this.

Also, why hold back a scum case on someone you think is scum?

So he doesn't attack you again? Because it was no longer convenient? At any rate, why don't you make that list if all the scummy things he's done lately now?
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I gave the reason I held back the case right there in my post. It was unnecessarily distracting the town.

A list of everything he has done scummy lately would primarily consist of every single post he has made so far day 3 with a couple of comments below them. I mean that literally. Every single post. I kind of expected the "I fakeclaimed mason and lied like crazy to stay alive this far" thing would be enough to lynch him without needing to do that...

OH HEY LOOK AT THE STUFF I FOUND ON REREAD.

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The exchange between King and Emp is really distracting.
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2) Emp and King are dominating the discussion.
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He's trying to show (albeit in a faulty way) that you are intentionally trying to distract the town.
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Almost as if you knew my argument was just pointlessly distracting the town from the start but ignore that as a reason I wouldn't keep doing it in order to attack me.


It was mentioned several times - and disagreed with by nobody - that we should off Emp before LyLo as otherwise there would be all sorts of shenanigans.

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Unless Empking gets cleared as town (by cop or mason buddy or whatever) then we're going to lynch him before lylo, plain and simple.
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[DarthYoshi]

…but I'm leaning back towards scum again given some of his more recent posting. If so, his quick wagon I'm thinking is the other scum bussing hard to gain credibility back after pushing several mislynches.

Ok, this makes sense.

That you were on a wagon at deadline isn't the problem - it's that you may have been avoiding wagons the rest of the time that looks suspicious. Implosion's vote was hardly a slip, he did give the (I feel reasonable) justification of "flawed reasoning is flawed reasoning". And yes, there is a strong case to be made that Empking is scum (that's why he was forced to claim, after all), but I'll leave that until after I've seen Zdenek's response.

There was a small Imp wagon on D1—it wasn’t huge, L-3 or L-4 IIRC, but yeah.

My personal belief is that hopping on a wagon is key to, say, prevent a no lynch, but I’m not going to hop on a wagon for the sake of it; to me, that’s like the fallacy of appealing to the majority. Barring circumstances like preventing a no-lynch, or some sort of gambit or whatever, I think it is generally optimal play to put your vote on the most deserving player whether or not there is a wagon.

My motivation in voting Implosion out of the gate D2 was in part because of the sheer number of people at the end of D1 who expressed suspicion of Imp—I thought that I could successfully push that wagon.

Your case on Emp in #774, now that I’ve had a chance to re-read and refresh myself on the D1 suspicions of Emp, is persuasive. That, + the admitted fakeclaim + Emp’s very minimal defending = I’d be down with an Emp lynch and am ready to put him at L-1 if/when the town feels ready, as people are expressing hesitancy and some worries about self-hammering. But yeah, Implosion can wait. I'm convinced Emp needs to be today's lynch.

[Nameless]

KingTwelveSixteen: I notice that you haven't said much since D1 either. Other than Empking, who are your top suspects?

implosion: Your VCA was impressive, but contained a lot of assumptions you haven't explained. Why did you think there was one scum between Empking and Setael at the 7th VC? Why are you convinced that every wagon town must have mafia on it? Why don't you feel this is much information to be gained from Saint's wagon before he self-lynched?

Setael: You've ignored this twice now, and it's a particularly notable question since you've yet to provide any arguments against implosion that don't amount to piggybacking ICEninja. In 754 you discussed generic game theory instead of responding to a significant post from the player you were trying to lynch. Why?

Empking: What post towards Darth Yoshi were you talking about in 771?

Swiftstrike: What was it that Zdenek said that caused you concern about lynching implosion? Also, what are your reads on Setael, neko and myself? You haven't really mentioned us yet.

Zdenek: You've said there's a reasonable case against Setael and implosion, as well as being fine with lynching Empking. Do you think these players are likely to be the scumteam, or do you still suspect me / others?

Can't think of any meaningful questions towards DarthYoshi or neko2086 right now.

[Setael]

Setael: You've ignored this twice now, and it's a particularly notable question since you've yet to provide any arguments against implosion that don't amount to piggybacking ICEninja. In 754 you discussed generic game theory instead of responding to a significant post from the player you were trying to lynch. Why?

Because I didn't consider it significant, as I already stated. I still don't. Also, ice's case + a good chance he got a scum result on implosion were good enough without anything new.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

KingTwelveSixteen: I notice that you haven't said much since D1 either. Other than Empking, who are your top suspects?
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Setael, implosion, and neko.

hehe, just got this via ISO.

Nameless took the wind out of my confidence about mb being scum. Looks way too much like nameless KNOWS mb is town and is setting up future mayhem based on that.
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Knowing mb was about to flip town, scum were likely motivated to stay off of mb's wagon, actually.
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[Empking]

Nameless:

That's L-1 (and Swift, you should have noted that when you voted). Nobody hammer Implosion until he has a chance to refute the case and/or claim.

Also, I am not Emp's mason buddy.

OK, if Implosion flips scum then I'm gunning for you like hell.

1. You're subtle protection of Implosion.
2. Your further protection of Implosion.
3. Trying to SUBTLY out my buddy.

Can somebody explain how giving the scum a choice between whether they kill me or my buddy is a good thing?

[Zdenek]

Zdenek: You've said there's a reasonable case against Setael and implosion, as well as being fine with lynching Empking. Do you think these players are likely to be the scumteam, or do you still suspect me / others?

My first suspect is Setael because of the terrible cases he's been pushing the last two days. I'm finding it hard to use the interactions between players to try to judge who could be on the same scum team because of the play of mb and Saint: both of them were so likely to be lynched days one and two that it would have been fairly safe for scum to attack one another without the fear of one of the partners being lynched. However, I am less suspicious of you than before because I'd be surprised if Empking (assuming that he's scum) was bussing you, and my gut says that you genuinely believed the arguments you were pushing against Saint. Also, I am skeptical of the idea that Setael was just bussing Implosion. I'm hesitant to say more because I am hoping that the nightkills will narrow down my picks for the third partner.

[Setael]

KingTwelveSixteen: I notice that you haven't said much since D1 either. Other than Empking, who are your top suspects?
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Setael, implosion, and neko.

hehe, just got this via ISO.

Nameless took the wind out of my confidence about mb being scum. Looks way too much like nameless KNOWS mb is town and is setting up future mayhem based on that.
...

Knowing mb was about to flip town, scum were likely motivated to stay off of mb's wagon, actually.
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I'm not sure I get your point. Care to elaborate?

[KingTwelveSixteen]

KingTwelveSixteen: I notice that you haven't said much since D1 either. Other than Empking, who are your top suspects?
...

Setael, implosion, and neko.

hehe, just got this via ISO.

Nameless took the wind out of my confidence about mb being scum. Looks way too much like nameless KNOWS mb is town and is setting up future mayhem based on that.
...

Knowing mb was about to flip town, scum were likely motivated to stay off of mb's wagon, actually.
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I'm not sure I get your point. Care to elaborate?

In the first quote you distance yourself from the wagon and be all "He is gonna flip town, lets attack nameless for it tommorow" and in the second you talk about how the scum would distance themselves from the mb wagon because he was town.

[Setael]

No... You're twisting it. I was ON the wagon when nameless said something that made it look like he knew mb was town. Yes, it made me worry about my read - how could it not? My point in the second one was that scum may have, knowing mb would flip town and that close to deadline townies were likely to vote just to avoid a no lynch, could've stayed off the wagon to keep their hands clean.

[Swiftstrike]

Swiftstrike: What was it that Zdenek said that caused you concern about lynching implosion? Also, what are your reads on Setael, neko and myself? You haven't really mentioned us yet.

Well it was the case that if Emp had a mason buddy I figured that was most likely either Zdenek or Seteal, which is why I didn't push to heavily on what I saw as the possible slip of Zdenek, but if Emp flips scum he is definitely worth looking at. Seteal at this point I felt had completely ruled himself out of being a mason buddy and then Zdenek did this, for me made it likely Emp was lying this then concerned me that we where on the wrong path.

As for my reads on Setael, Neko and yourself. Setael I have a town read which is why I suspected he was mostly likely a mason buddy with Emp but of course couldn't lead a reference to that, Neko and yourself are neutral/town reads mainly because I haven't spotted anything that overly concerns me but I probably should take some time to reread both of you just to see if anything sticks out.

[implosion]

implosion: Your VCA was impressive, but contained a lot of assumptions you haven't explained. Why did you think there was one scum between Empking and Setael at the 7th VC? Why are you convinced that every wagon town must have mafia on it? Why don't you feel this is much information to be gained from Saint's wagon before he self-lynched?

Because if it was a wagon of 3 townies on a townie a scum member would likely jump on; I'm not convinced, again, this is just what I see as more likely; I'm saying that Saint robbed us of the information of who would have hammered him.

[Nameless]

I'm finding it hard to use the interactions between players to try to judge who could be on the same scum team because of the play of mb and Saint: both of them were so likely to be lynched days one and two that it would have been fairly safe for scum to attack one another without the fear of one of the partners being lynched.

Hang on. Mb53 was "so likely" to be lynched? Mb never had more than a single vote until the last three days of D1, and the player who started the wagon did so without any prior mention of him. You didn't think he was worth a vote. It sounds like you're trying to disregard the lynch wagons here, which makes me think you're interested in protecting someone who was on them ...

[DarthYoshi]

Also, I am skeptical of the idea that Setael was just bussing Implosion.

Any particular reason why?

Setael I have a town read which is why I suspected he was mostly likely a mason buddy with Emp but of course couldn't lead a reference to that

Did you miss the several posts towards the end of D1 just before you replaced in where Setael was pretty vehement that Emp's buddy needed to claim? I can't really see a mason buddy acting like that. The reason I point this out is to ask if there are other reasons for your town read on Setael, since I'm not sure what you cited is actually much of a reason.

@Emp: So, let me get this straight...you think I've been bussing Implosion for, like, the entire game?

[Zdenek]

Nameless, you are correct, I was mistaken about mb53, and I think you are right to be suspicious of the people on his wagon. It does seem like it could have been constructed by scum to protect Empking (if that is what you are getting at in your post).

DarthYoshi, yes, assuming that both Empking and Setael are scum. If they planned to push their third buddy, Implosion early today, I don't think that Empking would have claimed so easily. I think that the only way that plan could have benefitted them is if they managed to get Implosion lynched today, and then for one of them, Setael, to use the town-cred from that lynch to avoid being lynched. I think that Empking flipping scum looks bad for Setael, so they would have preferred to delay his lynch as long as possible. Also, there was a perfectly good case against Implosion that had already been laid out, and I think that if Setael knew that Implosion was scum, he wouldn't have felt the need to push the additional and what I think is a very poor argument against him that ICE must have investigated Implosion and received a guilty result.

[Setael]

FYI - I'm going to be less active than usual this week since it's my spring break. I'll post when I can.

I think that Empking flipping scum looks bad for Setael, so they would have preferred to delay his lynch as long as possible.

How does empking flipping scum look bad for me? I'm unclear on your reasoning.

[DarthYoshi]

How does empking flipping scum look bad for me?

Personally, I'd start with how vehemently you were against an Emp lynch on D1. Though, IIRC, Zdenek was against it, too.

Also, two posts in the last 24 hours is pretty bad. The only reason I held off on voting Emp was because some players didn't want a wagon that quickly, but those players (Imp and Neko off the top of my head) have barely been active the last couple days anyways, and the town is stagnating as a result.

Nexus, is anyone due for prodding?

If y'all need more time for D3, whatever, cool, we have a week. But this level of inactivity is kind of ridiculous.

[DarthYoshi]

Oh, and:

Unvote. Vote: Empking.

That's L-1.

[Nameless]

Yeah, I'm getting the feeling we're just going to stall here. Somebody hammer, please.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Yeah, nothing really is happening right now...
:/