Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys! - Over

[DemonHybrid]

I'm not seeing how it's more of a scum slip over unneeded speculation.

[Oso]

Jesus, TS.

Yes, there can be a separate recruiter.

More likely though, in my opinion, recruiting and night killing are TEAM (shared) powers. An early lynch of a recruiter could emasculate a scum game in this game esp. if they do happen to be only a 2 man team. Don't assume that I think are three men plus 1 traitor just because I disagree with Agar at this point. My disagreement there is a caution. It can't hurt town at all to think there are still 2 scum left if there is only 1. A correct lynch is desirable in either situation.

Think for a minute about what you said though: A player says 'Town is in a good position as I think there is only one scum left...' Oso(scum) (who according to you knows there are two scum left) sees that and says <insert what TS thinks Oso(scum) says here>

@DH and CP: My posts may seem unneeded speculation to you folks but as I have stated TWICE, Parama's NK and flip has caused me to question just about everything I was willing to believe about how this game is playing out.

Half the stuff I am posting is thinking out loud and inviting comment as I try to get this straight in my mind. In regards to how Parama got accidentally NKed by scum before recruitment. I think I showed why I thought particular players might have been at the top of their recruitment list. Do you disagree in broad terms with that list or just in particular about Parama?

This makes no fucking sense at all

..
Had [winger] jailed Parama and Mae targeted [winger], then Mae would have found who targeted [winger] and probably would have claimed D2. If Cecily, then this would confirm her D2 actions and the theory above so she wouldn't have to claim. She would not have to claim in that case since Cecily was such a big train. I digress, however. It might be a better idea to stop with hypothetical evidence and try to find scum with what they've said.
...

That's the point I was making. Anyone want to put out a decent reason WHY Mae would watch anyone but winger? And then why she wouldn't come out with that D2? And we sure the fuck know it wasn't Cecily she saw.

Now if you think Mae watched anyone other than Winger, I'd like to hear your reasoning and I really don't want to hear "I'm not going to crawl into her head and try to think like her..." because she struck me, for the short time she was here, that she had a decent grasp of mafia and would know her highest chance of getting a positive watch was on winger.

So there are two options I can see. 1)Mae DIDN'T target Winger so there were no results. She got a negative on whoever she watched. 2)She DID watch winger and something prevented her from getting a result. Right now, from what we can see, winger is the only player we have showing that can block night actions.

winger was dead by N2 so if we think he was blocking parama or the mafia who tried to recruit him, where are Mae's results.

That is what is going on in my head at the moment.

[DemonHybrid]

Alright alright, but lets focus on the scummy connections over power role speculation. At least prioritize your actions, that's what we need right now.

[Oso]

Alright alright, but lets focus on the scummy connections over power role speculation. At least prioritize your actions, that's what we need right now.

I'm working on that.

Once I get straight in my head as to whether I think Parama's NK was an accident or intentional because it does reflect, at a basic level, as to what I am going to put forward.

If accidental, then I can live with the 'one scum left' and just worry about a single and throw out any player connectivity I think I see as it makes absolutely no sense to intentionally NK Parama in that scenario. Deliberately put yourself into a 6:1? I don't think so. If that happened then it is an accident.

If deliberate, that changes things because despite any number of arguments about balance, there are 2 scum left in my estimation so player connections are back in.

[crazypianist1116]

Oso I'm just saying if Mae watched [winger] and then saw Cecily, it would have been in her advantage not to claim as the Cecily wagon was going to produce a lynch. Again, I say this is possible since Parama pointed out the fact that Cecily might have been an antimiller.

[crazypianist1116]

I'm not saying speculating on power roles and what not is a bad idea. I enjoy it actually as it can be a very logical part of a game that generally has little to no concrete evidence. If we can reach conclusions based on what has happened then by all means let's lynch because of them.

[Sundy]

Aside from that possibility, it looks more and more like the NK was done deliberately with knowledge he was the traitor, at least from my POV.

...

What motive would there be for scum to intentionally kill Parama? It would hurt their numbers regardless of whether there's 1 or 2 outside of him. You are presenting a string of possibilities as to how it might have happened, but can you imagine one REASON for intentional night bussing... outside of it being an accident or a mistake due to failed recruitment etc.?

[Oso]

That's what I'm looking for and not finding it.

I can think of one reason I

might

do it if there were still two scum left, none at all if there is only one scum left.

In addition to getting a much longer post together at the moment, I'm also looking for actions that I would expect to see if Parama was intentionally NKed and they knew he was the traitor. Not finding anything worth bringing out except as an 'in case' scenario. 'In case' we flip scum today or tomorrow and the game doesn't end.

I'll include that 'in case' in that post as I can see no harm in it. If we catch and lynch a scum and the game ends, great. Then its just a bit of extra mental exercise. If we lynch scum and the game doesn't end, we need to be thinking about that now as it means we

HAVE

to lynch right today or tomorrow.

The beauty of it all is that whether there is one or two left, the goal remains the same: Lynch correctly as soon as possible. It either ends the game or confirms a second remaining scum. Win/Win. Whether Parama was NKed intentionally or not is pretty irrelevant to that goal except maybe as a starting on where to look but even that is unneeded as crazy was right. He didn't say it in so many words but scum should be findable without answering whether Parama was NKed by accident or on purpose.

[Twistedspoon]

=|

anyone read the parama iso?
he buddies to bub often :/

[AGar]

@Agar: I don't get why you're being so optimistic and telling us we have nothing to worry about

First, I'm not saying we have nothing to worry about. I'm saying that either town was fucked from the get-go or we're in a really good position, and I'm opting for the latter. Second, I believe we have good odds in our favor.

=|

anyone read the parama iso?
he buddies to bub often :/

Knowing Parama's ability to play mafia, that was likely intentional and, in my mind, makes it more likely that Bub is town.

God my gut is telling me DH, but my mind is saying "No, he's town."

I hate conflicting reads.

I'm going to re-read this game later on today when my brain isn't completely fried out. I need it desperately.

[Twistedspoon]

question: why wasn't I NK'd If i was a confirmed townie like AGar said?
Mafia would have to have overlooked that or disliked Parama :/

[DemonHybrid]

question: why wasn't I NK'd If i was a confirmed townie like AGar said?
Mafia would have to have overlooked that or disliked Parama :/

They probably saw Parama as more of a threat, hence my theory.

[Twistedspoon]

Requesting Bub prod

[Enigma]

Twisted, it hasn't been 36 hours since day break, however everyone did get a PM informing them about day start, so he should know day has begun. I'll prod him if he hasn't posted by my next vote count.

---

Votecount 4.1

Sundy (1) - DemonHybrid
Oso (1) - TwistedSpoon

Not Voting (5) - Oso, Bub Bidderskins, AGar, Sundy, crazypianist1116

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch, 3 to no lynch.
The

deadline

is 11:30pm 29th March GMT+10.30.

[Bub Bidderskins]

I'm sorry I haven't posted sooner, events IRL caught up with me. Reading now...

[Oso]

..
They probably saw Parama as more of a threat, hence my theory.

Eh, this should have been a case/vote post but still having trouble getting trouble making sense of things. I plead tiredness.

@DH
To the above quote, I looked. I don't see that anyone still alive had any reason to think Parama was a direct threat them.

Aside from D1, he never starts a case on his own. The exception is Day 3. He was first vote on my wagon but even if you take his flip out of the equation, the vote he made of me wasn't a serious threat to me. The initial reasoning was weak, almost non-existent, and he never does come in to help support it. At L-1, Parama chiming back in would probably have gotten me lynched. Unlike Akira and Cecily before and RBT after, he has no easy 'out'. Mine wouldn't have been a slam dunk lynch and on my flip, everyone who was on it would have come under much greater scrutiny with their reasoning and he knew it. Added evidence, the way he switches to TS when he(TS) unvotes. Parama is the first on this as well. He's looking for easy lynches or lynches he can get started and slink away from.

He went after crazy pretty hard D1 but never went back to it so I don't see crazy as having anything to fear from him either. Especially as he takes almost all pressure off crazy when he votes me: "

....some late D1/early D2 posts make me believe crazy is town...

"

He has a various points, made connections: Akira/Cecily, [winger](scum) to crazy(traitor), Sundy(scum) if crazy(scum), Oso/Sundy...I may have missed one or two, he threw a lot of them around.

He's like an erratic wind, changing directions at random.

Your theory: I can find no such player as you describe, except maybe me. Certainly no one else alive had even a small reason to fear him for his case building skills this game. But, even before his flip, by the way he was posting and throwing votes around, anyone at L-1 with Parama holding the hammer would have had plenty to fear from him. So someone pro-actively taking him out of play for that reason makes some sense.

Who did you find, using your theory?

[DemonHybrid]

I haven't made any connections as of yet. I only threw the theory out there and then went to class.

The fact that TS didn't die when he was basically considered obvtown, and instead, Parama dying, shows SOME urgency to kill him. It wasn't a random kill, it most likely had motivation behind it. I hope that much is clear.

It seems what's up for debate right now is "How can anyone see him as a threat if he hasn't really threatened anyone as of late?" and, in response to that, I think that the scum who killed him was pressured by him sometime in the past, knows how sharp of a town player he is (or at least was at the brunt of his lashing earlier on in the game) and felt the need to waste him. Either that, or TS's reads are completely off, though I personally think that TS has been steadily improving.

This scum is somewhat competent. Assuming it was a fear kill, they know that it would be certain death to kill him right after they were pressured by him. It'd be too easy to do the linking. The good play would be to wait a while after the pressure, then waste him when they have some leeway in pressure. I still believe in my theory that it was someone that Parama pressured earlier on in the game, because once the number of suspects start to narrow, that suspicion would naturally arise again. It seems almost entirely too characteristic of both Parama's play and the level of expertise of everyone left in the game.

The HoS on Sundy kinda weirds me out a little bit...everyone who's alive that has had heat from Parama before was voted or butted heads with him for a short time, but only one HoS. So again, he would be my top suspect. I know this is a meta-reliable statement, but Parama definitely seems like the kind of guy who would have a bus-fest if he was a traitor. Call it a hunch, gut, whatever. But it's further supported by the fact that TS isn't dead, which I thought would be the obvious kill last night. It can't be random; the two theories support each other, and this last paragraph of theory is just a supplement to find out who is most likely to pull a move like this, and a slip-bus (which was originally obliviousness to Akira) + HoS seems to be right up his alley. Maybe it's not so erratic as you'd believe.

Also, as stated in the parentheses above, note that Akira was hardly mentioned if at all by Parama before I pointed out his slip, and Sundy had gotten a HoS by that point. Ignored scum + HoS, with votes on other players seems so extremely likely to me.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Okay, let me get my head around this situation.

I don't think scum would ever want to kill somebody they thought was the traitor. If the traitor stays alive, then it's one mis-lynch till LYLO. Right now, I think that the scum killed Parama either because they thought he was obv-town, or they thought that he was a threat to them. Either way, the didn't think that Parama was the traitor.

He probably tried to send out some signals to the mafia that he was the traitor that the mafia simply didn't pick up on. ISO in progress...

[Oso]

...
Maybe it's not so erratic as you'd believe.
..

Ok, I'll go with that (actually I did) and I need to ask this of players that have played with Parama more than once, preferably with one of those times being as scum together. I only played one game with him and read a few others with him in them and don't have the time to go re-read them in the depth I need to to answer this question myself.

Question: Is subtle part of his abilities? I mean really subtle. Elegant/Brilliant/Deep and/or Far Thinking might be used in placed of subtle. All describe what I want to know.

[DemonHybrid]

Parama's not a subtle guy, I know that much.

[Oso]

Well, I'll go with it anyway as it makes a certain amount of sense and it's all I've got for the moment. He is trying to communicate.

RVS
OMGUS generally brings attention onto you. Whether it is actually a reliable scum tell or not, people tend not to do it except in an obviously joking manner which I think is how it started.

vote: Oso

Ouch, Mad Geese Usurped Slovenia

We actually had some fun with it in the RVS, Acronyms.

No need for Parama to do it again, but:

VOTE: Parama
My former roommate is Slovenian, you prick.

I'm trying to save the Slovenians, not insult them. You have the wrong idea.
In other news,

Only Mature Guys Understand Seriousness

, y'know.

Look at the way that is worded.

"OMGUS, I'm serious here guys...

That was the reason for the question. That's subtle. And elegant and shows a sharp mind if he used his initial joke to actually do that on the fly. Friggin' brilliant if he planned it pre-game. Subtle enough that I might be reading something into that isn't there. I'll roll with it though since I think it looks like he is trying to communicate to scum in general, he might have done it to a player in particular. And I think I found it.

Sundy is most certainly scum if Akira is not, btw.

Sundy's responses (included to get the timeline straight)

257:^^ more evidence that Parama is either not so good on the reads, or lying

259:Out of curiosity, are you linking me being scum to Akira being town on any particular point of evidence, or just stating in general that I'm likely scum if your main suspicion is wrong?

Parama's 260:

I didn't even call you scum, since Akira is scum, and you're only scum if he isn't, though you *could* be if he is, but Cecily _is_ scum if Akira is scum so.

"Akira is scum and I know it, so do you. Let's flip him and then lynch Cecily."

Sundy is still completely defensive even after that interaction, maybe missed it/maybe not. He does get onto the Akira wagon but not the Cecily one. That one happened fast, maybe he did want to be on it but couldn't get a pre-hammer position but Bub saved him the trouble of being the hammer on a townie. Which makes me feel a bit better about Bub's hammer. Not by much but he's definitely on the rise in my estimation.

VOTE: Sundy

As to his play after that, the only vote he makes is on Twistedspoon during his wagon. What I think is telling is that he doesn't vote me. I'm below the scum line in Post-376 and even though I don't agree with Bub's points against me, some are defensible. Sundy could have totally sheeped Bub's case and in the next day hash-up of the lynch, made Bub look like the bad guy (Parama could have probably done the same). The only reasons I can think he didn't do so is because of paranoia or he is unsure town (<-that is what I was initially going with when Sundy didn't vote me: That he was unsure town). In light of a re-read, I don't think that anymore.

He reacted way out of whack to others in the thread about my speculation on Parama being deliberately killed as well. Everyone else who commented on it (including TS who voted me over that) didn't display near the alarm(?) that thought did to him. TS thought I was displaying knowledge I shouldn't have, CP and DH basically said,

"Unneeded speculation. or I understand why it (Parama's NK and flip) has thrown you off...now get your head back in the game."

[Twistedspoon]

Sundy would be an easy lynch for today. Too easy.
I have a bad gut feeling that he'll flip VT, or worse :/

and then scum will probably get it right this time and kill the confirmed townie.
we'd be no better off and will lose our good lead

I seriously think that sundy is town guys. I might post quotes later if needed.

but for now, let's go somewhere I feel safer

VOTE: CP

[AGar]

Ok, is anyone else REALLY bothered by the analysis DH is putting up for the NK? Like, it's just not the kind of analysis you expect from a town-player. I'm really uncomfortable with this right now...

VOTE: DemonHybrid

I'm buying hyper-bus on Akira, chain to Cecily.

[DemonHybrid]

Ok, is anyone else REALLY bothered by the analysis DH is putting up for the NK? Like, it's just not the kind of analysis you expect from a town-player. I'm really uncomfortable with this right now...

VOTE: DemonHybrid

I'm buying hyper-bus on Akira, chain to Cecily.

It's analysis.

Besides, do you have any other evidence than "I think he's scum bussing Akira, and lynched Cecily right after"? Because you haven't posted a damn thing other than that in your case on me.

Votecount 1.6

Akira (7) -

DemonHybrid

, Parama, AGar,

[winger]

,

TwistedSpoon

, Sundy,

crazypianist1116

Cecily (1) - Riceballtail

Not Voting (5) - Maemuki, Oso, Akira, Bud Bidderskins, Cecily

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch, 6 to no lynch.z
The

deadline

is 3:30pm 20th March GMT+10.30.

---

Lynch has been reached!

Votecount 2.2

Cecily (6) -

crazypianist1116

, Parama,

DemonHybrid

,

Maemuki

,

TwistedSpoon

, Bub Bidderskins,

Not Voting (5) - Oso, Cecily, AGar, Sundy, Riceballtail

With 11 Alive it takes 6 to lynch, 5 to no lynch.
The

deadline

is 8:00am 20th March GMT+10.30.

---

Lynch has been reached!

So, why me and why not anyone else who's underlined (like I did with Parama, no deflection, just a hypothetical)? You haven't mentioned a damn thing about their possibility of being scum bussing and then chain lynching Cecily.

Your unexplained iffiness on my analysis must be a really good case, so I'd like you to go into it and explain it if you would.

Mod: Edited out purple, changed underlined to blue. Nearly confused me as to current vote count PM if you would like an edit in another format.

[DemonHybrid]

EBWOP: Not to mention that Mae is dead and flipped town, which further proves that your vote should go somewhere useful.

8 AM and forgetting to complete posts ftw.