Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Fishythefish]

Excellent!

I'm actually on V/LA. I'll be back on Saturday.

[Empking]

Vote Count 48

2. DarlaBlueEyes (2) - DavidParker, llarmable
3. Locke Lamora
5. Jahudo (1) - Aikage
7. Fishythefish
9. DavidParker
10. Aikage
13. llarmable

Not Voting: DarlaBlueEyes, Locke Lamora, Jahudo, Fishythefish

7 players left, 4 to lynch.

[Fate]

Deadline... how many votes to lynch..etc...

[Locke Lamora]

Having a 'Red Mafia' as the only Mafia seems to be a bit too misleading to me for a Normal. It doesn't explicitly go against anything in the Normal guidelines, but to me it's not really in the spirit of the rules given that the guidelines state "A second anti-town group can be given a separate Mafia family name".

DP: exactly where did I say quick-lynch Darla?

[Aikage]

David Parker is probably Blue Mafia.

Darla is Red that got roleblocked... I'm ready to hammer.

Nikanor is dead, I'm tempted to replace back in as myself so I can post easier.

[Jahudo]

We can't trust Darla didn't target Yos, she could be lying under the idea that we're only going to lynch possible blue mafia today.

So she could be blue mafia. But if she is red mafia, it will cut down on possible number of NK'ed townies which is also good. We shouldn't rely on scum targeting Darla yet, or Darla hitting scum.

I can't think of any other explanations for Yos getting killed besides two mafias now, so I am willing to vote Darla. Maybe we should wait for everyone to have their say though, like Fishy when he's back.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

v/la through tonight, sorry guys. posting this from phone, please don't lynch while I am gone

[Empking]

Lllarmable and DavidParker have been prodded.

Deadline is Sunday, 27th of March.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

Back back, give me a bit to catch up in my newbies and I'll be here

[Locke Lamora]

Right, I've been reading back in pretty high detail, so here are my re-read comments up to the end of page 10. I've naturally concentrated on players that are currently alive and Yosarian interactions.

rekirtS, post 56: this vote looks incredibly disingenuous to me. He dismisses FF as 'obviously noob' and then votes for ender, who has just admitted he got used to it taking 5 to lynch. ender's play certainly doesn't look like scheming scum to me; it's either very, very bad scum not even attempting to lie low and stay in the background, or it's newbie town.

To me, early game looks like a lot of newbie play drawing heat and people taking the opportunities to hop around easy wagons.

DBE's Whiskey vote in 85 is definitely at odds with her reluctance to vote previously. To be honest, this reads most like a buddy trying to prod Whisky into contributing, but that clearly wasn't the case. Then in 103 the justification isn't much better; that she was doing it to 'get his attention', which makes little sense to me as she wasn't willing to vote to pressure other suspects previously but now she uses it just to make Whisky answer a question. There's also this particularly scummy comment on Yos:

I am still not sure what Whiskey sees as so scummy about Yos, and not Bob / Jahudo who're also on the ender wagon, but it's worthy of a look back at Yos' posts for me. Maybe he's seeing something I'm not, (although it'd be helpful if he articulated it more clearly if he is town.)

Essentially, Darla doesn't get the Yos case at all, but she's leaving her options open to look back and hop on the case at a later stage. Definitely reads like a buddy here.

Nikanor is glib and vague in 110, plus takes the opportunity to try to laugh off his lurking.

Darla seems to be warning ender that she's trying very hard not to vote him in 112, but at this point the meta is still enough to excuse the 'obvscum' things he's doing. There seems to be dissonance in 120, particularly with the comment "I just think that ender's play has made him the perfect target for the scum to tunnel in on him, and hey for all I know he IS scum." So is he an easy target for scum, or scum himself? Darla looks to be struggling between painting ender as a newbie victim and trying to maintain the possibility he's scum.

Over the next page or so, Darla goofs by thinking that Nikanor is not voting for rekirtS, as well as managing to criticise him for the awful reason that he mentions 3 people but doesn't vote for any of them. I'm not quite sure what to make of the Darla-Nik exchange from 137-139. Nik says that he thinks rekirtS' posts read like he knows everyone's alignment, at which point Darla decides that rather than ask him for examples, she'll do a quote by quote breakdown of rekirtS play! Then, despite not demonstrating that she'd found any examples of what Nik's talking about, she comes out the other end with a scum read on rekirtS. The total lack of scrutiny of Nik's voting reason makes me doubt how genuine Darla's criticism of Nik was initially.

Yos 144 expresses doubts about the Darla wagon due to not really seeing anything suspicious from her and asks people to clarify. Not dissimilar to Darla's earlier comment about Whisky's Yos suspicion.

In 149, Jahudo has clearly examined Darla's ender meta and determined that although some of his play is consistent, the caution in voting is not. Town points for that.

Ender bizarrely offers to die first in 150 to help show that Darla is scum. I'm really not seeing the survival instinct in this comment, especially as his slot has already drawn a lot of heat.

rekirtS 152 makes me wonder if he's actually interested in answers to any of his questions. He's asked several at this stage, but there's not a lot of follow-through, evident here in him missing Darla's answer. I think this is part of what Nikanor might have been trying to get at; they look like empty questions that have no relevance to his interest in the game

160 from Yos is one of the interactions with the Darla wagon that gives me a strong feeling they're buddies, as he basically states that the wagon is a valid one but he's not 'confident' that the things they've pointed out are a strong enough tell.

Jahudo 172 is again pro-town; he could easily take the opportunity to push an ender lynch as ender is not making himself look any better, but he seems to be genuinely trying to figure out his alignment rather than backing an easy lynch. I also like 190, which I think expresses the scummy points of rekirtS' play very well.

Ender 214 and 215 are almost laughable in how ludicrous they are. He basically says he thinks Bob's scum but then votes FF. At this stage I don't see the motivation for any alignment for playing like this; I don't think mafia should be played like this full stop.

221: CMAR hasn't received his role PM when he's starting his read? Really, really don't like this - it's just an excuse to say whatever he likes on those first couple of pages and remove all semblance of connections.

Nik 226 is a little weak, especially given that there's been a good level of content in the first 10 pages. All he basically does is point out that ender's trying to get townpoints by suggesting his own death and then votes for him.

Pomegranate replacing out just makes me realise that there's been nothing noteworthy from the slot in 10 pages.

My town-scum list at the end of page 10:

TOWN
Jahudo
Pomegranate
Nikanor
Ender
CMAR
Darla
SCUM

Honestly, Jahudo's the only living slot that read particularly pro-town in all of that. Pom gets to be second pretty much by default because I didn't really pick up on anything scummy. With Nik there were a couple of minor scumtells but nothing that leapt out at me. Ender is there basically because his play is so ludicrously lynch-worthy that I don't think it's likely to come from scum but I can't really warrant placing it as town as it's impossible to discern any pro-town motivation either. rekirtS/CMAR pinged my scumdar a few times, particularly with rekirtS' lack of follow-through and CMAR's reading without a role PM. Darla read as very inconsistent in when and why she was willing to vote, did not treat her suspects in a manner that indicated a town thought process, most notably when she failed to question Nik further about his rekirtS suspicion, and by far had the most obvious buddy interactions with Yos with both of them managing to say they didn't suspect the other but leaving a clear path open to bus if necessary later on.

Will continue this tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

As I've said, I'm almost completely sure DBE is scum and everyone else should be too.
Once we get to Lylo there will be few enough scumcombos possible (6) to analyze each possibility and find which team explains the game best; my finite reading time will be best spent then.

Does anyone think we should even consider lynching a player other than DBE?

[Locke Lamora]

I think it's very likely DBE is scum and we should definitely lynch her today. Her claim makes it incredibly unlikely she could be anything but scum and the more I read, the more I think DBE is a Yos-buddy. I'm taking the opportunity to read back now because frankly, I have a lot to catch up on and if the game wasn't in a bit of a lull, I wouldn't have so much time to do it.

[Fishythefish]

Red scum + Blue scum + Vig = 4 kills in 3 nights? No. DBE doesn't claim the Yos kill, so we can't have just Red + DBE vig (which would need rather cruel modding as well). Even if DBE is actually red with Yos, that's fine - it's unlikely we've got another mislynch whatever happens. So, DBE lynch looks good

I'll be rereading early next week to look for Yos and DBE connections. No need to rush this day.

[Fate]

Please replace Aikage with Me. Nikanor has told me in no uncertain terms he won't be able to play for the foreseeable future.

Ok no more lurking from me!

@Fishy: I think this day has gone on long enough. DBE's flip is crucial, and the night kills will tell us a LOT more about everything than any sitting around posturing will. Once a lynch is decided its time for the day to end, thats always been my opinion anyway.

But since Locke's already started, I'll wait for him to finish and throw a vote down by tomorrow/Sunday probably.

@SETUPCHUMPZ: We looking at 2-2 or 3-3 here?

[Empking]

Fate replaces Aikage

[DavidParker]

Back from a short road-trip down south. Sorry I didn't announce my absence.

Will catch up soon. I don't think it's 3-3 because town has been lacking heavily in the PR department for that to be the case... And I really can't see 5 of you as scum...

[Fishythefish]

@Fate: 3-3 is just totally unbalanced in a 14 player game, unless town is more stacked than we've seen here. Also, if it's 3-3 we've lost, so we may as well assume it's not. So, 2-2.

And yeah, I suppose there's no particular reason to do analysis today rather than tomorrow. We'll have a lot more info tomorrow.

[Fate]

OH HEY FISHY IS ONLINE YAY ANOTHER GAME TO DURNK POST IT.


ITS 14PLAYERSA UP IN HERE?

KLK 2-022

T
AHT MEANS ITS JAHUDO AND YSOARIAN AND DBE AND DBE. OR SOMETHIN

IM SURE ITLL ALL NBECOME CLEAR TOMRPOROW AFTER DBE IS DEAED

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, not buying 3-3 at all. I think people are probably right in saying that it's not the best use of time to read up fully now without the info we'll get from today and tonight, so I will:

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

[Jahudo]

I'm fine with lynching Darla now.

[Fate]

Hammer her then, it'll make my Vc analysis pretttier tomorrow

[Jahudo]

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

[Fate]

VOTE: DARLABLUE EYES

HEHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Jahudo]

I was the hammer, but ok

[Fate]

I LIKE BEING THE FIFTH VOTE OK?