Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys! - Over

[Sundy]

Ok, is anyone else REALLY bothered by the analysis DH is putting up for the NK? Like, it's just not the kind of analysis you expect from a town-player. I'm really uncomfortable with this right now...

Yeah it's a steaming pile of WIFOM. I'm surprised to see it in an experienced player.

Oso, you don't need all that detail on Parama communicating about the traitor. Do a word search of his ISO for "traitor," that should tell you all you need to know w/r/t hints.

I don't like the Oso/DH reads on Parama. Not only are they inexplicably arguing Parama was killed by scum with knowledge of his alignment, they are trying to glean lessons from that improbable event as if it wasn't WIFOM central to do so. I find it hard to believe that both can believe what they're spouting about parama. However I also find it difficult to believe they are both scum

[AGar]

@DH - How about that slip right there. Since when was CP confirmed-town?

[DemonHybrid]

What are you talking about? When did I mention anything about CP specifically?

[DemonHybrid]

Mod: the point of that post was to point out those on both Akira's and Cecily's wagon, not to show who I thought was town...

Edit it back the way it was, but make it blue if you can.

Apologies.. it was originally purple with the colored people as underlined. My misunderstanding here.

[DemonHybrid]

Ok, is anyone else REALLY bothered by the analysis DH is putting up for the NK? Like, it's just not the kind of analysis you expect from a town-player. I'm really uncomfortable with this right now...

Yeah it's a steaming pile of WIFOM. I'm surprised to see it in an experienced player.

Oso, you don't need all that detail on Parama communicating about the traitor. Do a word search of his ISO for "traitor," that should tell you all you need to know w/r/t hints.

I don't like the Oso/DH reads on Parama. Not only are they inexplicably arguing Parama was killed by scum with knowledge of his alignment, they are trying to glean lessons from that improbable event as if it wasn't WIFOM central to do so. I find it hard to believe that both can believe what they're spouting about parama. However I also find it difficult to believe they are both scum

Read. We're specifically stating that its very likely scum killed Parama because they thought he was town and was a threat to them over killing obvtown TS. I never said he was recruited and was neutral to the idea, favoring a reactional scumhunting approach over a theorized one.

Also, you're fencesitting with your reads.

[Sundy]

Read. We're specifically stating that its very likely scum killed Parama because they thought he was town and was a threat to them over killing obvtown TS. I never said he was recruited and was neutral to the idea, favoring a reactional scumhunting approach over a theorized one.

Also, you're fencesitting with your reads.

Read. Oso's #51 is all about how he's not buying the argument you ascribe to both of you: that Parama was a threat to a certain player. He has tentatively argued along the lines I described (though you have not when I look back over):

Aside from that possibility, it looks more and more like the NK was done deliberately with knowledge he was the traitor, at least from my POV.

Anyway I'm fence-sitting because I'm not sure what to think yet. Now that you've helpfully distinguished your two arguments, you look scummier. He's comin up with every possible scenario no matter how contorted or unlikely, you're trying to push a lynch based on a single-minded form of NK speculation.

[DemonHybrid]

That Parama was a threat to SCUM, not just any player. That's why it's likely that killed him and not obvtown TS.

Jesus.

Also, good to know that you admit to fencesitting, and as soon as I re-state my argument with no new information, you suddenly make a decision.

[DemonHybrid]

Also, like I said, I paid no attention to that argument. I don't agree with it, so I said he should discredit that theory.

[Sundy]

Look, DH, Oso did not specifically agree with your argument as you claim. The MAX he did was say Parama's accusations may not have been erratic, and that Parama may have been killed because he was a wildcard in general. Here are fairly representative quotes:

They probably saw Parama as more of a threat, hence my theory.

@DH
To the above quote, I looked. I don't see that anyone still alive had any reason to think Parama was a direct threat them. ....Your theory: I can find no such player as you describe, except maybe me. Certainly no one else alive had even a small reason to fear him for his case building skills this game. But, even before his flip, by the way he was posting and throwing votes around, anyone at L-1 with Parama holding the hammer would have had plenty to fear from him. So someone pro-actively taking him out of play for that reason makes some sense.

You're trying to argue that we can find scum by looking at who Parama pressured. Happily Oso has not expressed support for that theory. This is happy partly because it's a bad theory and partly--even if you assume this was the reason for the NK-- there's no reason it should point to a specific player. Why me, and not you once he turned on you? Why assume he was killed in response to pressure, and not assume Parama was buddying scum, as Pianist suggests? The problem with your approach is that you're trying to figure out what a dead player meant to convey, and eating NK speculation as the cherry on top. Fuzzy fuzz fuzz.

Please make a case that doesn't involve you interpreting Parama's posts willy-nilly as you see fit. Same goes for Oso. But the difference between your two approaches is that he's considering every possibility even horribly unlikely ones (and I already acknowledged my mistake: you didn't say scum intentionally killed their partner), whereas you've latched onto one, even when presented with contradictory arguments. This is comparatively scummy on your part.

But no, I haven't "suddenly" made a decision. Do you see a vote from me? No. Then I didn't decide.

[DemonHybrid]

I see your point, and I'm at least glad that you recognized your mistake. But we're going to have to agree to disagree. I think NK speculation in the fact that we have an obvtown claimed VT that wasn't killed in favor of a strong player has merit; it was clearly done with reason and could be a clue as to who should be lynched. There's clear reasoning, and if you think it's WIFOM, then there's nothing I can do to change that, but I don't think it's as WIFOMy as you might think it is. Not in this context. Or else, yes, I'd normally agree with you. But that's the point of the traitor in this context, and ESPECIALLY in this context, when a judgment call was made instead of taking the easy option, once again, assuming TS is truly town.

[Enigma]

Votecount 4.2

Only after disaster can we be resurrected.

Sundy (2) - DemonHybrid, Oso

crazypianist1116 (1) - TwistedSpoon
DemonHybrid (1) - AGar

Not Voting (3) - Bub Bidderskins, Sundy, crazypianist1116

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch, 3 to no lynch.
The

deadline

is 11:30pm 29th March GMT+10.30.

[Twistedspoon]

If DH was scum methinks he would have Nk'd me :/

Parama wasn't a threat to him.

Bub and CP weren't around when I became confirmed town, and therefore I think they overlooked that part and forgot I was confirmed town.

That's why I think at least one of them is scum and I'm voting CP today.

[crazypianist1116]

Yeah TS is townie unless he's daytalk scum with AGar which is highly unlikely.

[Twistedspoon]

yeah, well anyone who doesn't have a town read on me would be very suspicious.

Having a town read on me

now

is what I'd expect scum to do to blend into the crowd, especially if they didn't see me as town yesterday, when I believed I was dead.

[crazypianist1116]

You don't get it, I wrote that on Day 3 not day 4. That means I knew you were confirmed town.

[Twistedspoon]

alright then cp

let me ask you who you want to be lynched today

[AGar]

What are you talking about? When did I mention anything about CP specifically?

When in your VCA he became green.

[crazypianist1116]

alright then cp

let me ask you who you want to be lynched today

My gut is telling me Sundy. I want to look over the cases and Iso as well before I vote. If there are two, then I'll wait to Day 5 to share my opinions on who I think the second is. Why are you voting me?

[DemonHybrid]

What are you talking about? When did I mention anything about CP specifically?

When in your VCA he became green.

Like when the mod edited my post without me knowing and made them green? That thing that wasn't my fault? Go look again.

AGar. Come on, now.

[Twistedspoon]

My gut is telling me Sundy. I want to look over the cases and Iso as well before I vote. If there are two, then I'll wait to Day 5 to share my opinions on who I think the second is. Why are you voting me?

I had a feeling you'd pick sundy. :/

However most of the arguments don't transgress gut and that would be a bad thing to lynch him solely on.
The main quote that makes me believe Sundy is town is:

@TS: Stop saying you're town! I would believe you more if you didn't say it so often.

this shows to me that sundy doesn't seem to know who is and isn't town as all townies do. If sundy was mafia he'd not be in a position where he needed to talk about his town reads in a small-side argument without being provoked.

But that's just my interpretation. =/

anyways, why am i voting you? good question

I've already said why I think sundy is town. DH seems town because he started the akira wagon (although Agar believes he was bussing).

AGar seems town because he was first to point out I was confirmed townie. Scum would never do that as it makes a player unlynchable.

Bub, CP and Oso are my grey areas.

[Oso]

...
Oso, you don't need all that detail on Parama communicating about the traitor. Do a word search of his ISO for "traitor," that should tell you all you need to know w/r/t hints.
...

Ah, you mis-understand, I think. Pehaps I stated my initial premise badly, for doing a re-read.

I didn't go back to get confirmation he was the traitor, the dead post does that. I went back looking for some sort of pattern because I had dismissed Parama's behavior as simply being erratic/very opportunistic because he was scum(this game) and because of playstyle. He displayed that behavior in the game I was with him in before, he was town there. You made a similar comment yourself in Post-112 which exactly echoed my thinking right up to, and for a time after, he showed up as dead scum.

..
Parama: I find over-confidence suspect in general but this player displays it regardless of alignment. Hence the ambiguity of my suspicion.

I went to see if what I thought was general erratic behavior, actually wasn't. As the traitor, he has 100% knowledge of the teams. Only thing he doesn't know going into confirmation is PR distribution. My last post is a part of what I found. My determination is that he WAS trying to communicate with scum. In general most certainly. At a particular player? Maybe, if it could be done fairly transparently to the players who had no knowledge of the teams but would, from his POV, have been fairly obviously to the person he was talking to.

The whole point of the first part of my last post (before the vote) was to show that I think he did try, and to point out the player he did it to.

The second to last part of that post is to give my read on you up until that point in the game. I was fully relieved that you didn't vote me there and I gave you some points for it. You had pretty much a dead neutral read to me except for the tag "doesn't post as much as everyone else". RBT was in that category as well. That post bumped you up into 'unsure/cautious town'. Point being, I wanted to show why you hadn't been under any suspicion by me before the re-read.

The last. More thinking out loud on my part. Up that point people had disagreed, for various reasons, on my NK theory. Even to the point of one player (TS) voting me over it. But, when I made that post, you were the only one to show an outright aversion(?) (<-Having trouble coming with the right word on that one) to the thought. I can't explain why that bothers me, but it does.

Conclusion:

• One remaining scum theory a go.
  
• Parama did try to communicate his traitor status to Sundy.
  
• Sundy missed it or didn't miss it but something happened to make him think Parama wasn't the traitor. Explaining why Parama is (dead Mafia Traitor) by
  MISTAKE
  .
  
• Don't see my vote changing anytime today.

[Twistedspoon]

and what will your conclusion be of who is scum if Sundy flips town and I get Nk'd tonight Oso?

[Oso]

and what will your conclusion be of who is scum

if

when Sundy flips

town

scum and I get Nk'd tonight Oso?

Fixed that for you.

I'm confident enough that Sundy is going to flip scum that the first part of your question is invalid from where I'm sitting, even as a mental excercise. As to the second, if Sundy's lynch doesn't end the game then tomorrow will be dealt with tomorrow, no matter who gets NKed tonight.

The spread of players still left after any Night Kill, is more than up to the task of finding Sundy's partner should his flip not end the game.

[Twistedspoon]

you're not answering my question.

It's highly likely Sundy would flip town if you're scum, and we don't know that you're not scum. You were almost lynched yesterday need I remind you

so I ask again

who would you next suspect

IF

sundy flipped town tommorow

[Sundy]

Alrighty then Oso. Let's go.

I didn't go back to get confirmation he was the traitor, the dead post does that.

???

I'm not saying you needed confirmation he was a Mafia traitor. I'm saying your theory that Parama's OMGUS acronym was a "subtle," "elegant" and "frigin' brilliant" clue that he was traitor MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE because Parama made actual signals in ISO #4:

Okay, it's Page 3, so one scum should be blatantly obvious by now, if not two.

First off, I'd like to draw people's attention to the first post, specifically the part that confirms that there's at least 1 mafia traitor in the game. If people don't realize this, it could hurt, because what it means is that scum may well "bus" a buddy and not have a clue that they're bussing - if a mafia traitor is lynched, and they flip mafia traitor, we need to treat it as a town lynch in terms of VCA.

ISO #5:

crapplesauce, I already forgot about the traitor >.< [winger] COULD be scum if crazy's the traitor, but not vice-versa.

ISO #6:

I give [winger] a pass because he's not scum traitor to crazypianist mafia, though the inverse could be true. Unless the traitor doesn't know their mafia, which would be just plain unfair.

Given all of this evidence, how could you POSSIBLY decide that Parama's OMGUS acronym meant something, and ignore all of these bread crumbs???????? Why make something up out of thin air when the evidence is right before you?

I went back looking for some sort of pattern because I had dismissed Parama's behavior as simply being erratic/very opportunistic because he was scum(this game) and because of playstyle.

Can you explain your thinking here a little bit more? AFTER finding out he was bad, you went back to re-read the thread because you had ALREADY dismissed him as scum this game? Then why weren't you trying to get him lynched then??

As the traitor, he has 100% knowledge of the teams.

How do you know this for sure?

Point being, I wanted to show why you hadn't been under any suspicion by me before the re-read.

Why do you care what I think? This reminds me of one of Winger's criticisms of you:

multiple times makes comments in the light of protection his own image. He says things like, "At the risk of being accused of overthinking", or "Call me paranoid", or "At the risk of starting an MD discussion". This kind of language strikes me as off.

But, when I made that post, you were the only one to show an outright aversion(?) (<-Having trouble coming with the right word on that one) to the thought. I can't explain why that bothers me, but it does.

Yeah because it looked to me like a scum slip.

Explaining why Parama is (dead Mafia Traitor) by MISTAKE.

What are you talking about? Expound on your criticism please.

I'm halfway through a re-read, so I'll make another post. But in the meantime, I'm fondly remembering the good old days when we were killing Oso.