Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Fate]

(Btw you not saying "did Fatescum just fail a quickhammer?" =SCUMREACTION.)

You'll rpobably be crosskilled tonight if DBE is blue. BUH BYE.

[Jahudo]

You thought I'm suspicious of you? LL and DP lynches FTW.

[Fate]

Well of course being "suspicious" of me would be SUICIDE for you, scumbag, but IRONICALLY your lack of suspicion for my fake quickhammer=SUICIDE

[Empking]

Vote Count 49

2. DarlaBlueEyes (4) - DavidParker, llarmable, Locke Lamora, Jahudo
3. Locke Lamora
5. Jahudo (1) - Aikage
7. Fishythefish
9. DavidParker
10. Aikage
13. llarmable

Not Voting: DarlaBlueEyes, Fishythefish

7 players left, 4 to lynch.

[Fate]

INB4FLIP /CACKLE

[Empking]

Three killing roles and only 4/3 kills per night? That's unlikely. Especially with a Doctor dead. You all agree on that point, Darla is almost certainly scum. You then agree some more, and then some further agreement takes place untill finally you agree some more. The sun begun to set and you agreed some more. Some of you drifted off to sleep safe in the knowledge of your agreement. You finally put that agreement to good use and hang her.

DarlaBlueEyes has been lynched. She was a Red Mafia Goon. Night 4 begins now and will end in 48 hours

[Empking]

Fate laid dead. Or was it Nikanor, no Fate. No it was a Fate-Nikanor siamise twin (which unfortunately only had the one mouth (but with four legs)). Oh no, my mistake it was definitely Fate all by his lonesome. He lived together but as illustrated by his lame corspe he died alone. All by himself, he didn't want to beeeeee all by himself anyyyymore.

Fate was kiled Night 4. He was a Vanilla Townie. Day 5 begins now.

[Empking]

Vote Count 49.5

3. Locke Lamora
5. Jahudo
7. Fishythefish
9. DavidParker
13. llarmable

Not Voting: Locke Lamora, Jahudo, Fishythefish, DavidParker, llarmable

5 Alive, 3 to Lynch

[Fishythefish]

Thank god for that - if Fate and Llama were both alive this morning I was going to go mad about whether they were a scumteam.

Shall we massclaim? You never know, it might actually help.

[Fate]

Afternoon town,

My name is Fate, nice to meet you.

I'll be in here with a stream of thought catch-up post that nails likely 75% of the scumteam and reasons with. As for when, I guarantee by Wednesday, but I'll get started tonight.

Thank you for your time.

SURPRISE SURPRISE


HEHAHAHEHHEAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Llamarble]

Yes, we absolutely should massclaim. In case somebody has forgotten, I'm a VT.
Popcorn -> Jahudo.

[Fishythefish]

Hooray! Today's lynch turns out to be an easy decision (thought tomorrow's is a toughie). More on this when claiming finishes.

[Jahudo]

I'm a Gunsmith. My actions have been:

Night 1 - Darla - She had a gun
Night 2 - Llama - He does not have a gun
Night 3 - Yos - He had a gun
Night 4 - DavidParker - no result, so maybe I was blocked

I picked Darla first because she was pretty null from being V/LA. If you check my ISO you'll see that I was really adamant about a Darla lynch on day 2. When Bub flipped town I felt I owed it to him to check out Llama on night 2. Since then I've said Llama was town a few times. Night 3 I choose Yosarian because Fate was so sure about him. And last night was a toss up between David and Locke and I just chose David.

In hindsight targeting Yos or even trusting his claim was stupid once DLG flipped cop.

David can go next.

[Fishythefish]

Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo that's interesting. We got a PR claim!

[DavidParker]

Sweet. I'll help explain a few things.

I'm a commuter. Hence the lack of results on me last night. I can only use this ability three times throughout the game, and all three can't be in succession.

I've used it Nights 1, 3, and 4.

[DavidParker]

Locke next

[Locke Lamora]

I'm a VT. 3-shot commuter? Is that even a Normal role?

Fishy next.

[Fishythefish]

What a totally bizarre claim. Sounds normal, though.

I'm a VT.

Cop + Gunsmith + Doc + Commuter overpowered in 8v2v2? Cop and Gunsmith each have ways to get a false positive, which helps. I don't have time to do much thinking now, but here's what I was going to post before massclaim happened:

We’re lynching Jahudo today.

1. Llama is town.

I got a ridiculously strong town read off Llama in the period after Fate replaced in. When that happened, I was feeling really down about the game – I thought the case on Llama was BS, but noone would listen to me. When Fate replaced in, aggressively and impressively agreeing with me, I felt much, much better about things. And I saw the same things in Llama’s play. Since then, his play has been good.

2. Locke and DP aren’t scum together

Two reasons here. Firstly, the DP/werewolf scrap, which starts around post 760. werewolf votes DP with bad reasoning. DP replies:

LOL.

I was about to go to sleep having unvoted one of my town reads and leave it there but that is too funny.

mega vote: werewolf

Are you serious?!?!? LIKE SERIOUS???!??!

Your partner distances from you and you mock his post completely? That would take serious balls. This whole argument just doesn’t feel like distancing.

Also very interesting is the aftermath of DBE’s vig claim. Fate (a very influential player) voted for werewolf. And then so did DP, making ww the only wagon. This could easily have led to ww’s lynch, and would be a really poor move from DPscum with ww.

3. Jahudo is scummy

It’s really just this: nothing Jahudo’s done has really made me think he’s town. Usually, from a player like Jahudo (ie. tries, makes arguments), if he’s town I’d expect to feel he’s made good, new points that I agree with, or that I’m convinced his perspective is a genuine one. I haven’t got that town feel from Jah in this game.

Add to this:

4. But Jahudo is a gunsmith?

I’d expect scum Jah, if pulling this gambit, to go all out and report a gun on DP or LL. It’s also inherently risky because there could be another investigative PR, which would cast serious doubt on Jah’s claim. All in all, a townish looking claim, particularly first up in massclaim without any massive suspicion on him – the classic time to claim VT. The Llama result fits his play perfectly, and he did go after DBE hard day 2 - if this is a fakeclaim, it's one he's been planning. Which is, of course, a possibility.

Questions for Jah:
Why didn’t you claim your result on DBE, given that you were prepared for her to claim/be lynched?
Why did you target Yos, when you knew he’d have a gun one way or another?
Can you give me a list of scum games where you reached massclaim, and if you can be bothered tell me what you claimed?

5. DP and Jah confirm each other, in that Jah visited the absent DP last night

Not sure how much to read into this. Explanations:
a) Both are town telling the truth.
b) DP scum, exploiting Jah's true claim rather brilliantly (seems unlikely tbh).
c) Jah scum, took another action on DP (rolecop? or just gunsmith, actually) that failed to resolve last night.
d) Both scum, with linked fakeclaims - quite a bold and unnecessary move.

I'm guessing a) or c), so DP is looking pretty good.

1b. Llama has no gun

And so is probably town.

Hmmmm. I guess we should lynch Locke. Everyone else is looking reasonably good right now - I'd be very surprised if there were two scum in LL/Jah/Llama.

[Jahudo]

I believe I have tried in this game and actively made arguments that I felt were important. From day 2 my focus was affected by my Darla gun result, but I still found time to look at other wagons (Fate, Bub, Llama, Yos) and think about other people as suspicious (broken, werewolf, CMAR, llama).

What did you think of this post where I gave my opinion on several of the llama case points? I was trying to understand all of the factors to see if I could agree with enough of it or not. link

What was my motivation for defending Fate's fakeclaim after it was revealed to be fake? I referenced other games to diminish that point against him because it was not a scumtell and Fate should not have been lynched there. lin

-----

1. There was a chance she could have been a cop or vig, so I didn't see it as beneficial to claim a powerful role on day 2 after only one result. I felt the better solution was to keep questioning Darla and hope she became more active so other people might see her as suspicious too.

2. Are you saying a tracker would have a gun? My role PM didn't say who would or wouldn't have a gun, so I used the wiki page for reference and that did not list tracker. It's called a flavor cop and I don't see how tracker would have gun as a flavor.

3. I'm looking through my archives and I don't think I've ever been in a proper massclaim as scum actually. There was Alabama Correctional, but massclaim came on the day where posts were limited to license plate length, like 7 characters. Sushi mafia was over before a massclaim. /in 10 was all vanilla, a few more were newbies. And I can't find if I claimed in DHSDSM Alpha or Beta but it doesn't look that way. The Alpha endgame was more about posting QT threads.

If you are looking for a scum meta on me, you won't find much. Besides not being scum here, my last two scum games were in August and March of last year. I've only been in a mafia 4 times since April 2009. So I don't know what my meta would be if I was in a scum game today.

-----

That commuter role would be considered normal. Non-consecutive night and X-Shot are allowed according to the wiki page. I would say the best plan from my perspective is to keep DavidParker alive today and target him again tonight.

I'm leaning towards a Locke vote but I'm going to go ISO Fishy again. I need to check and double check my reads from the past days.

[Llamarble]

The Fire & Ice setup has 1 doctor, 7 vts, 2 fire mafia, and 2 ice mafia.
Our minimum townpower is Cop, doctor, 8vts, 2 redscum and 2 bluescum. That's already a lot, even accounting for the framer & a mystery blue PR. So I think I can safely rule out Fishy/Locke scumteam, though I'll still check it when I go through the possibilities today.

[Jahudo]

Is it? Framer cripples the cop role so you can only trust the innocents. My role is weakened because I could have outed the cop.

[Fishythefish]

I just typed out a post about Jah's claim, DP's claim, who is scum, likelihood of both PRs being real, that kind of thing. But actually, I think it would be very silly to post it. Suffice to say that both claims are convincing enough that they are each less likely scum than Locke. As far as I'm concerned, the best lynch is Locke by a great margin, and I don't want to tell his partner who the best kill is.

I might go ahead and actually look at Locke's play later. It's traditional before you lynch someone. But the PoE is strong enough that he pretty much has to be scum.

[DavidParker]

Using the same PoE you are highly-plausible scum as well. Just saying. I'm all onboard a Locke lynch, but if your reasoning is "PoE".. then..... dunno what to say.

At the moment I'm inclined to believe Jahudo's claim.

[Locke Lamora]

Llama seems pretty unlikely scum at this stage; it'd either require him to be scum with Jahudo, in which case Jahudo's been extensively plotting a potentially risky claim for a very long time by clearing Llama after N2, or he'd have to be a gun-investigation immune GF, which seems unlikely. I think the best bet is that either Jahudo or DP is scum because I don't think town has both those PRs unless scum has something pretty powerful in return to counteract, and framer-goon doesn't seem like the world's most powerful scumteam. Both of them being scum seems unnecessarily risky at this stage, so I don't think it's particularly plausible. DP would be my pick right now because from a quick read, Jahudo's claim meshes quite well with his play and I found Jahudo to be pretty town in my early-game reading (although I need to do a lot more). That leaves Fishy, who I honestly don't have much of a read on at the moment, particularly as Pom's slot did nothing, and need to look back at him in much more detail.

Questions for Jah:
Why didn’t you claim your result on DBE, given that you were prepared for her to claim/be lynched?

Why did you target Yos, when you knew he’d have a gun one way or another?

Can you give me a list of scum games where you reached massclaim, and if you can be bothered tell me what you claimed?

Are you getting Darla mixed up with Yos here?

[Empking]

Vote Count 50

3. Locke Lamora
5. Jahudo
7. Fishythefish
9. DavidParker
13. llarmable

Not Voting: Locke Lamora, Jahudo, Fishythefish, DavidParker, llarmable

5 Alive, 3 to Lynch