Newbie 1052 - Endgame

[Drench]

The Twenty Second Vote Count - Donde Esta La Bibliotecha

Neuky
Workdawg
Sundy
sordros - 3 - Ty, Workdawg, Neuky
Ty - 2 - sordros, Sundy

Verifying lyn-

sordros, Town Vanilla, Lynched Day Three

It is now Night Three. Any night actions must be submitted within 48 hours.

[Drench]

-ch!

Oh. We're at day already. Hum.

Neuky, Town Vanilla, Killed Night Three

It is now Day Four. With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch! Deadline is set for the 6th of April at 10:57am, AEDST.

[Workdawg]

I'm not dead, but I think FUUUUUUUU is appropriate anyway.

[Sundy]

OK, LyLo speech: In this round, votes don't really work for pressure. Be very careful before placing a vote, because a vote on the wrong person can lead to an instant scum victory if they hammer.

I'm going to re-read, but I'm still feeling good about Workdawg compared to Ty. I want Ty to respond now to my response to his case please.

[Neuky]

FFFFFFFFFfffffffffffffffUUUUUUUUUUUUUuuuuuuuuuuuu.........................

[Workdawg]

I'm super swamped at work this week, but I should have time in the evenings. I still think Ty is most likely the scum here as well, but we'll definitely need to be looking at eachother more closely.

[Ty]

Hi everyone, unfortunately I won't have the time to post a meaningful response here until Saturday due to a hectic rest of the week with some midterms thrown in. I'll be V/LA until then, but I will be here Saturday.

[Sundy]

Ty, please take your time.

In the meantime, I've gone back over Workdawg's posts. And the conclusion I'm coming to is that-- unless he's some kind of sleeper agent-- he's definitely a townie.

ISO #0: "I am a full on newbie…never played a game before."
ISO #1: RVS Stels: Sneaky genius?
ISO #14: he's got a townie vibe from Stels
ISO #16: calls himself "more town than the mayor of townsvilleland"
ISO #32: "Wow… nice post Stels. Woot!"
ISO #37: doesn't like the 2nd unvote from Stels
ISO #52: Stels has "pretty good scum hunting," although he continues to comment on the 2nd unvote
ISO #81: Says he doesn't like the Stels case, even mentioning that it has wide support among the town (3 players)

The thing that gets me most are his posts as the heat is really rising on Stels. The entire time, he emphatically disagrees with the players making the case. He's already had the opportunity to bus by mentioning the double un-vote, but despite some minor skepticism about Stels, he ends up defending Stels whole-heartedly, and argues against the players who are voting Stels. I don't see scum doing that. They might bus their partner. They might give a townie read, and not say much else. But I don't see them putting themselves right in the thick of the fight to save their partner.

Again, this could all be super-clever WIFOM, but I don't see it from a newbie.

One again, Ty, please take your time.

[Workdawg]

An Analysis of Stels and Ty

Stels ISO

#2 - Stels answers Ty's RQS. He also posts the comment that someone else brought up as a potential slip.

P.S. At question #2 for Nacho&co: Why am I scum now? I think that someone's just jealous here, you goon.

Now that it's down to just us three, I wonder if that really was some sort of vindictive "you call me out, I'll call you out" thing.
#3 - Replies to Ty's defense of RQS. Essentially follows Nacho's lead with a vote on Ty for not voting Stels even though he Ty claims Stels is scum. Assuming he can count (unlike me), he knew this was only the third vote, so a pretty safe move if he is voting his scum partner.
#4 - unvotes Ty.
#5 - This post seems a little bit interesting, actually. It's in response to Ty's post after the failhammer, but Ty hasn't posted about that yet. He starts out asking Ty not to be so defensive and keeps up the minor bickering they've been doing over RQS. In the second half of this post, he actually gives Ty a little speech about how voting is town's only weapon and he should use it. This segues into telling Ty that he seems to be too concerned about how he looks, which leads to an IGMEOY. So Stels goes from voting Ty for not voting, to IGMEOY for not voting AND trying to appear town?
#9 - This is Stels first set of reads. I've analyzed this already... so yeah. Though having taken a closer look at their interactions just now, this seems extra suspicious considering the above.
#17 - Second set of reads... interestingly this is the next time Stels mentioned Ty. Ty posted his two big wall posts against me in between, but that's it.
#18 - Justifies his reads to Nacho when Nacho asks where is scum reads are. He says he can't pursue the null reads because "they haven't 'said' anything yet." This is interesting, considering Ty has said a lot by this point, and the only other comments Stels has made that indicate any sort of read on Ty are all things that indicate scum. Yet Ty still gets a "Townish-null" read. He also mentions the potential for a "Ty-Dawg" scumteam and Ty is trying to buss me because I'm so horrible... <.< There's a wink smilie at the end though, so it seems as this is in jest.
#20 - (By this point, Ty is getting replaced and the heat is on Stels) There are just a couple sentences here. I think both are rather insignificant though.

Ty's gone, and Stels never addresses Concerned, so that's about it.

[Ty]

Well, here is the promised post (some of it anyways). Considering I haven’t posted today other than a placeholder V/LA post, I’ll start off by apologizing for the sordros mislynch. As I was reading through the thread I gulped when I saw Post #623, it was either ridiculously over-confident scum or misguided newbie-town. And I pretty much kicked myself when I saw him turn up town. Reflecting back on it, am I glad he was lynched yesterday? Yes and no, the fact he wasn’t scum puts us in a worse position but I have a hard time denying his inherent scumminess wouldn’t have had me push for his lynch sooner or later.

And so it all boils down to either Sundy or Workdawg. I did go through all your posts and unfortunately neither of you was the obvious town that Neuky was. I’m in a serious pickle right now and I’m going to be as complete and fully honest as I can be. The following is me essentially writing down my overall thoughts on each of you as they pop into my head.

WORKDAWG

Besides having the most ‘fun’ ISO to go through, you’re also the player that’s grown the most in this game. The problem I have is determining whether that growth is extreme newbie beginner evolving into contributing townsperson or blatant scum maturing into not-completely-obvious scum. Throughout the game most of your reads have been completely wrong and you pursued one of them (Mute) aggressively enough to stall and derail the game for a bit of time in the middle of the game. You also were extremely hesitant to board the Stels (confirmed scum) wagon at the beginning of the game. I don’t generally think new mafia players know (or feel confident enough) to bus their scum partner, especially if that partner is an SE.

However, you slowly evolved into a player that became a lot less active/aggressive. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, considering blindly swinging a sledgehammer throughout the game doesn’t really help much. Your purpose in the later days has slowly become ‘town person that needs to be persuaded to vote correctly’ and I definitely pushed hard for you and Neuky to vote for sordros. Why? Sordros’ lynch was a priority and frankly I was banking the game would be finished after yesterday with his hanging.

Now that we’re in LyLo a lot of the weight you shrugged off your shoulders the past day or two is being put back on and doubled. Posts like #633 just aren’t going to cut it anymore. Does that post have a purpose honestly, and can you give me a straightforward answer to what that might be? I understand you wanting to spark some discussion in a stalled game until I was able to post, but are you getting the same sense of wishy-washy blabbering I get from that post? It provides an opinionated recap of some of what Stels says, but you don’t USE it for anything, you just leave it there as pseudo-useful analysis. Beginner town trying to make contribution in LyLo or scum trying to appear useful, it’s hard for me to decide.

My question to you (as well as Sundy) is why have neither of you bothered to discuss the mislynch or nightkill that just happened? The sordros lynch was an extremely important part of this game and for it to be neglected by both you tells me I’m dealing with a happy scum and a town member that’s using tunnel vision – which is extremely worrisome.

Additionally, I would like you to post three reasons why Sundy is the scum and three reasons why you believe I am scum and be prepared to support them with posts and logic. Don’t use ISOs if they’re going to be a distraction from your reasoning.

Finally, I’ve just given you an honest assessment of what I think of you in this game. I’d like an honest response from you about what I’ve labeled you as and what you would think about yourself if you were in my position.

Anyways, it’s 3:40am so rest assured I’ll have Part 2 of this post up sometime tomorrow regarding Sundy and my response to his accusations (the two go hand in hand). Good night.

[Workdawg]

First off, Post 633 was meant to both break the silence, and to help me gather my thoughts. By the time I was done analyzing the ISO, I was pretty burned out and didn't really feel like giving my overall thoughts on it. That said... I think there are some suspicious things in there. I think the most suspicious part is how Stels manages to maintain a null-to-townish-null read on Ty through the entirety of the game despite posting IGMEOY and votes for him. This is established in ISO posts 5 and 18. I don't see any sure signs of scumbuddying between Stels and Ty, but with two SE players as scum, I would hope they would be smart enough to avoid that. It's pointless IMO to ask what other people think about this, because all that can really be drawn from it is speculation. Stels is gone, so he can't defend himself any longer. I intend to read through the game and do Ty -> Stels, Stels -> Sundy and Sundy -> Stels when I have the time though. Would you prefer I keep those ones to myself? I thought information was good for town.

To answer some of Ty's thoughts more specifically.

About my play/growth/etc

I have learned A LOT this game. I think the fact that I seem to be consistently picking the wrong target is what has caused me to back off the past day. I don't mean that as "I'm picking the wrong person to focus on", but that I'm voting to lynch the wrong person. When I go back and reflect on this though, I've noticed that my main issue seems to be that both Mute and sordros have simply failed to really put up a good defense when they are pressured, and I guess that made me feel that they were guilty.

I've noticed that both you and Concerned have mentioned that I'm very misguided in my scumhunting, but I find it interesting that you both say that when I bring up issues with your own play. In your ISO 9, you told me to be more assertive, but then when I find something suspicious in your actions, it's misguided? In ISO 13, you referring to my post #601, the table of Stels reads. You call it "a fairly interesting post" right off the bat, but then you just start tearing it apart saying that now that Stels is gone his reads have already served their purpose. And then you again mention that I'm misguided. You never actually elaborated on what was interesting about my post.

I'm having a hard time really figuring out if my play is bad, or if I'm just letting you and Concerned bully/"teach" me into submission. I fully admit I've made plenty of mistakes in this game, and the fact that I haven't had a good scum-read yet doesn't help... but you still seem to be the only one who has really been focusing on my playing being "misguided" which makes me not sure if I should be trusting you. I'm going to have to be taking everything you say with a heaping pile of salt now that it's down to the wire.

About the mislynch and NK

Sordros appeared scummy to me, but obviously I'm wrong more than I'm right (which is to say, I'm always wrong, lol).

The NK I suppose brings up some interest thoughts. I think generally, Neuky was the smart choice no matter who the last scum is left. When it comes down to 3, you only have to convince one other person that you're town (or the 3rd person is scum), and leaving the most widely thought town player in the game would seem to spell doom for the scum.

The rest of this is all theorycrafting though, is that OK Ty? You don't seem to like my opinions when they shed some suspicion on you. Of course, it's all subject to WIFOM as well.

Why would Ty NK Neuky?
For the reason above I think. If he NK'd me, he'd have Sundy left, who was already building a case against him, and Neuky. It would simply be a battle between Ty and Sundy to see who can convince Neuky the other is scum. Neuky had already acknowledged he felt almost equally that either sordros or Ty was scum, so it would be an uphill battle to swing Neuky back in his favor. NKing Sundy would be extremely suspicious considering the case Sundy has against Ty, and wouldn't even be an option, IMO. Ty has already proven that he can managed to convince me he's right, so it would be the safest bet to keep me around.

In conclusion, I feel that Neuky was the best option a scum Ty could make for a NK.

Why would Sundy NK Neuky?
NKing Neuky would be silly for a Scum Sundy, IMO. As I mentioned above, Neuky had already agreed with Sundy's case, but just not enough to outweigh the suspicions against sordros. If scum-Sundy chose to NK Ty, then he would be removing an ally.
NKing Ty wouldn't make any sense either though. He already has a case against Ty. If he kept either me or Neuky around, he should have had an easy slide to victory. And between the two of us, I think Neuky would be the obvious choice. Again, because Ty seems to be able to sway me too easily.

In conclusion, I feel that I would have been the best option Sundy could have made for a NK.


For your last point, about finding three reasons why Sundy is scum and three reasons why you are... I've already been accused of "looking for scumminess", by Concerned in fact, and I won't be doing this for you. I'll follow up with the analysis I mentioned at the beginning of this post. But I won't be looking for reasons why both of you are scum.

I look forward to your thoughts on Sundy, though.

[Sundy]

Um, I'm mostly posting to avoid a prod, since I posted last on Thursday. Not too much has developed, although I look forward to reading Ty's next post.

Ty's question about the lynch & the NK: I personally didn't discuss it much because it didn't fundamentally affect my interpretation of the game. W/r/t yesterday's lynch: it was suspenseful for both you and Sordros to be at L-1. Neuky did make the final hammer decision and he chose town. That might be something to look at, but then he died anyway, so clearly not a relevant suspect. W/r/t NK: Speculation about the NK is usually just WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM. (Workdawg I'd say the same thing to you about that aspect of your post above.) Sure, I'm a bit surprised that I didn't die given that I'm 97% sure Ty is scum and I've been arguing such, but if I'd died last night, Ty would be lynched faster than you can say "boo." Now at least he has time to talk it out.

Also:

I would like you to post three reasons

why Sundy is

the scum and three reasons

why you believe I am

scum

What subtle word choice.

[Workdawg]

An analysis of Ty and Stels
Ty's ISO

#0 - RQS - Very likely not significant, but I noticed that Stels got the only question with NO relevance to mafia at all. (His 3rd)
#3 - Bickering over RQS. Tells Stels that he doesn't think Stels is scum.
#9 - This is his exit post. He lumps Stels and Nacho together, as experienced players I suppose. He says Stels has been under the radar and speculates that Stels is trying to give advice to his scum buddy. He suggests that either Nacho or Stels is scum. He also speculates about some possible scum teams, both of which include Stels, and then he votes for Stels. Again, this is after Stels "slips up" with the "you can't claim a power role" advice to me. Neuky, TP42 and Mute have all expressed that they found this to be extremely suspicious even though none of them have voted for him yet.
#11 - He points out the scumminess in Stels' vote for Neuky. Stels made a desperation move and Ty does not approve. He asks what the purpose was.

And that's it. 4 posts out of 12. I don't really see anything significant here... but there it is anyway.

[Ty]

SUNDY POST #620

Blast from the past! Welcome back, Ty. Below, please find my response to your defense. Btw, I didn't find your post grouchy or mean at all. Though this site sometimes descends into annoying ad-hominem attacks, this thread has been good. However, you may not like where this post is going next.

Well that’s good, I like to grill people but I definitely want to make sure the game is enjoyable for all. Glad you can take a little heat. As for where this post is going, I can’t say it’s not expected.

1) Ty stated in his first post (and reiterated afterwards) that Stels was scum.

I went out on a limb when I first made this argument, but--fortuitously enough--the player in question has returned! Something odd: You say that RQS is better than RVS because the latter is "garbage," and the former is "still being used." But the only thing being discussed today is whether or not your question was a scum-tell. So from your perspective how does that prove RQS is more helpful? I agree that you weren't actually trying to lynch Stels with those posts, but surely that assumption is implicit in any case that links him with you, no? As for why you chose Stels, we have to take your word for it.

The second small paragraph was me being slightly obnoxious and arrogant in regards to RQS vs. RVS. With the games I’ve played here there’s generally a large commotion at the beginning about RQS vs. RVS so I feel like I have to reiterate my stance every single time. I threw that in their in case anyone ever decided to use this game as a meta against me. The fact you’re now discussing the semantics of a debate (RQS vs. RVS) that is inconsequential to me being scum suggests to me that you don’t have anything further in regards to this point.

See my #604. Basically he seems to be inside of your mind in his posts, offering detailed accounts of the way you were thinking. After all that, he still has a null-read with no comments on your ISO. You don't like when I bring up Stels' play in my case on you, but imo it's very helpful to examine known scum for patterns.[/spoiler]

I did read your #604, wherein you specifically state that these paragraphs are (correctly) not a case against me. I certainly don’t mind you bringing up Stels, considering he’s the only confirmed scum I would agree it’s helpful to examine him, however my previous point of contention still stands here.

4) Concerned on Neuky

It's not that you or Concerned are saying players need to be examined, it's that you give town-reads on a few players, suggest a few others may be scum, and then there's Neuky. For both you and Concerned, he's a player that's "under the radar," and that "hasn't been pressured." And for the record, Neuky never "noted" that he'd flown under the radar, he expressed suspicion about the vagueness of the claim. I don't disagree with you or Concerned insofar as every player needs to be examined. What I disagree with is keeping a read of a player ostensibly a town-read (notice how Concerned only bolds the part about the town read), even while simultaneously expressing ambiguities and quiet uncertainties on one player in particular, who conveniently "hasn't been pressured," and presumably won't be pressured until LyLo comes around, and you drop your town read.

You seem to conveniently drop the most obvious and relevant parts of things I’ve done or said, in this case that I’ve consistently agreed with Neuky and expressed my opinion that he was extremely pro-town throughout this entire game. He did fly under the radar, precisely because there was no need to examine him to the extent that other people needed to be pressured. Just because I said he “hadn’t been pressured” (which is true, point me to a post that says otherwise) doesn’t mean he can’t be a townsperson. To say otherwise is just stuffing words in my mouth. Finally, even if I’m virtually certain someone is town, I will always have even the smallest amount of doubt lingering in the back of my mind. Unlike one of you, I don’t have the comfort of knowing who is what for certain.

5) Concerned on Mute

So you say there's no contradiction at all, and Concerned "knew" he was town. And at the same time, the reason there's a contradiction is because he's "probably" trying to pressure Mute, all with the intention of getting him out of a hot spot.

I’m not Concerned so neither of us knows his true intention. I’m giving you my perception of what occurred basically had I been Concerned. Taking the small hiatus from this game I was annoyed that the town set its sights on Mute and annoyed that Mute was providing very little defense to a mislynch.

6) Wants to lynch Sordros right away

Workdawg defended Concerned's post saying that he didn't want a bad player in LyLo. That makes sense. But how does it make sense not to want a player in LyLo when they're super super scummy? Isn't it more of an advantage to have obvscum than a fiendish trickster?

The irony of this question now that we’re actually in LyLo is delicious. The answer to your query is yes it makes perfect sense. First, if someone is super scummy, why on earth are you keeping them until LyLo in the first place? Lynching scummy people makes sense because they’re more likely to be scum. In addition, you can see now what a huge threat having sordros in LyLo would be right now. His extreme town newbiness which reeks of scum would have made it very easy for the real scum to ensure a final mislynch. As you can see, there is absolutely no reason to have kept a scummy player at all. Though extremely disappointed by the outcome of the lynch, the fact we don’t have sordros in here gives us a much better chance of catching the last scum.

7) Is Ty a founding member of the Stels wagon?

In the pages after Nacho started the Stels bandwagon, 3 other players echoed it.

No, players asked Stels fairly generic questions to further explain a few of his posts, but please point me to a post in between Nachomamma’s post and mine where a player specifically says they are suspicious of Stels and considering lynching him. There isn’t one. The quoted posts you have show players asking some questions but none of them express enough suspicion for lynching. Whether you wish to delude yourself or not, the only point in time Stels’ lynching became a possibility was after my “leaving post.”

Honestly though, I think the fact you’re still trying to push “points” like this one is why I have such a hard time swallowing any of the points you try to make in this post. I’m open to responding to valid questions about my actions and I am willing to concede and explain where some of my actions were sketchy (see: tunneling of Nacho), but I really don’t see the validity in most, if any of these.

For example, let’s say for giggles I had absolutely nothing to do with Stels wagon and you are completely right about your so-called Point 7. Concerned was absolutely wrong about me being a founding member of the wagon. SO WHAT? DOES THIS MAKE ME SCUM? No, it’s just a quick jab to try and discredit me.

I really love my “leaving post.” I said the remaining scum would be most likely Sundy/sordros, and guess who my top suspects heading into the second to last day and LyLo are? Unfortunately I was wrong about sordros, but after writing my most recent posts I’m pretty dang confident it’s still going to hold true for this game.

RECAP

#1: Your comment on RQS/RVS is off, your 2 defenses add up to your word and the fact that you didn't want to lynch Stels right then, and you didn't explain the point of the pressure.

RVS/RQS point explained and inconsequential to argument. Movement of debate to RVS/RQS debate suggests you can’t find anything else wrong with my argument. The point of pressure of what exactly, putting the vote on Stels? As I’ve said, it wasn’t a pressure vote. It was a nudge to the town in what I thought was the right direction before I left the game.

#2 & #3: circumstantial because they rely on Stels' play, but looking at known scum is helpful

Ok cool. I’m pretty sure no-one disagrees that looking at known scum is helpful, but the fact you specifically avoided clarifying these points or asking me a specific question about them seems like they're invalid to you as well as me.

#4: I don't disagree with examining players carefully, but I don't think that's your only motive.

You fail to say what you think my motive is but that doesn’t really matter because the basic logic you try to use behind this point is wrong in theory (and practice). I will always have at least a tiny amount of doubt about every player because I am not the scum, but I am not going to give everyone a null tell because of that. Neuky, as was confirmed last night, was town and I thought this was the case (and said so) multiple times throughout the game.

#5: You say there's no contradiction and then you acknowledge there's a contradiction.

Wrong, and the amount of times you say I said something I didn’t actually say in this post is bordering on insanity. I gave you a good explanation of Concerned’s actions based on what I would have been doing in his position (which is fairly appropriate considering I AM in the same exact slot). I believe Concerned expressed disapproval at a Mute vote and prodded him to try and get a defense so that he wouldn’t be lynched. I would have been trying to do the same thing.

#6: Didn't even use the reasonable defense that Workdawg already raised

Erm, I’m fairly certain my explanation IS essentially a more detailed explanation of what Workdawg said. Workdawg says sordros should be lynched for being a “bad player” and I say he should be lynched for, if nothing else, being a terrible new town that reeks of scum. Would being a newbie town that 3 of the four other players thought was scum be considered to be bad playing? I would think so.

The larger question I have here is HOW DOES THIS EVEN MAKE ME SCUM. Not parroting another player’s logic means I’m the scum? This is a repeating pattern I see through all these points and it makes me want to pull my hair out.

#7: I think I've conclusively proved that you were not a founding member, that half of the players expressed suspicion before you did, that your muted suspicion of Stels before then was all with the larger purpose of getting Nacho and then Dawg lynched, and then you left as soon as you voted on Stels, with a vote & argument that had 10% of the effort you put into your Nacho/Dawg posts.

You neither proved I was not a founding member, that half the players expressed overt suspicion before I did, nor that finding Stels suspicious was part of a grand conspiracy to get Nacho and Workdawg lynched. In fact you haven’t even mentioned the latter theory until now.

As for your last point about your last point, no doubt my Stels vote had less effort. One, it was my leaving post so I don’t the power of multiple posts to reinforce me opinion, and finally, it was a lynch vote, not a pressure vote. I wasn’t trying to harp on every little thing Stels said, I was trying to make sure he was dead.

[Ty]

SUNDY

I thought my case had merit before, and after Ty's defense I have no doubt.

That’s ironic, because I think your ‘case’ is a pile of crap. As I mentioned previously, I’m open to legitimate queries about questionable activities, but all your stuff is circumstantial, WIFOM, putting words into my mouth, and as I said before, just a bunch of stuff thrown at me in the hopes that one catches Workdawg’s eye enough to vote for me.

The two main things I think your ‘case’ posts do a good job of showing are blatant tunneling and to an extent, buddying up on Workdawg.

One theory I have as to why so many of your points are ridiculous is that you’ve just decided to tunnel me to the nth degree. You’re throwing everything, no matter how trivial, at me and this is not good at all. If you are the town player, which I am finding more and more unlikely, then we’re screwed. You put a token post of saying you are positive Workdawg is town before waiting for me to post so you can hammer me into the ground. If you are the scum, you’re trying desperately to sway Workdawg with your tunnelvision. Considering this slot has been under intense scrutiny (approaching L-1 multiple times) since Day 1, it seems I would be a logical choice for you to be doing this to in LyLo.

And yes, I do think you’re buddying up with Workdawg to a large extent. Like I said, you’ve pretty much declared, per #632, Workdawg to be a townsperson. I know one way you would be confident enough to make that assumption- you’re the scum and you know everyone’s roles. But even now as I’m leaning more and more into the Sundy is scum category, I’m certainly not giving Workdawg a blank check as townie. Perhaps this is why I always do so terrible in LyLo, not buddying up with another person, but I’m sticking with my plan of being as open and straightforward as I can be with both the remaining players. As I’ve said, veritas vos liberabit.

WORKDAWG

First off, Post 633 was meant to both break the silence, and to help me gather my thoughts. By the time I was done analyzing the ISO, I was pretty burned out and didn't really feel like giving my overall thoughts on it.

That’s like saying I spent the past month gathering wheat from the field but I’m not going to bother baking it into bread. I respect your initiative to do so many ISO posts, but if you’re taking the time to do them make sure they have a purpose and count for something!

That said... I think there are some suspicious things in there. I think the most suspicious part is how Stels manages to maintain a null-to-townish-null read on Ty through the entirety of the game despite posting IGMEOY and votes for him. This is established in ISO posts 5 and 18. I don't see any sure signs of scumbuddying between Stels and Ty, but with two SE players as scum, I would hope they would be smart enough to avoid that.

So either I’m an obvious scumbuddy or I don’t appear scummy at all which as an SE makes me scum? I can’t say really agree with this logic at all but I understand the basic idea that you don’t want to trust me just because I wasn’t Stels lover. Fair enough, I would hope that’s the case.

It's pointless IMO to ask what other people think about this, because all that can really be drawn from it is speculation. Stels is gone, so he can't defend himself any longer. I intend to read through the game and do Ty -> Stels, Stels -> Sundy and Sundy -> Stels when I have the time though. Would you prefer I keep those ones to myself? I thought information was good for town.

No, perhaps you misunderstood what I said, but you should definitely write those down. I don’t want you not putting down your analysis of the game, I just want you to have a purpose when you do it. I can just as easily do an ISO of Stels too, but a large part of the value comes from your own thoughts on it.

I have learned A LOT this game. I think the fact that I seem to be consistently picking the wrong target is what has caused me to back off the past day. I don't mean that as "I'm picking the wrong person to focus on", but that I'm voting to lynch the wrong person. When I go back and reflect on this though, I've noticed that my main issue seems to be that both Mute and sordros have simply failed to really put up a good defense when they are pressured, and I guess that made me feel that they were guilty.

Well done, you’ve moved onto the dilemma faced by the vast majority of players in newbie games: distinguishing between newb and scum tells. The two are often intertwined and it throws a wrench into normal scum vs. town differentiation. As a town Workdawg, having Sundy and I in LyLo is going to be beneficial for you. We are both SE so we can’t hide under the newbie shield, so you mainly have to just worry about town vs. scum without the extra newb angle. As a scum Workdawg, Sundy and I still have to manage the possible scum vs. newb perspective.

A perfect example of scum vs. newb was your quickhammer. As you no doubt know by now, that was a fairly scummy thing to do. Even though that seems like a scumtell, it seems like at this point Sundy and I have attributed this to newb error (Sundy doesn’t even mention that vote in his ISO analysis of Workdawg, one of many reasons I called it out for being weak).

I've noticed that both you and Concerned have mentioned that I'm very misguided in my scumhunting, but I find it interesting that you both say that when I bring up issues with your own play. In your ISO 9, you told me to be more assertive, but then when I find something suspicious in your actions, it's misguided? In ISO 13, you referring to my post #601, the table of Stels reads. You call it "a fairly interesting post" right off the bat, but then you just start tearing it apart saying that now that Stels is gone his reads have already served their purpose. And then you again mention that I'm misguided. You never actually elaborated on what was interesting about my post.

Being Assertive =/= Being Right

I will always tell people to be more assertive because that means they are posting more which means more information is written down which means the town can make more informed judgement calls (or that their posting provides more insight). However, just because you’re being more assertive doesn’t mean you can’t also be wrong. When I said “interesting” I mainly meant the usage of a table as well as some of your stinkier WIFOM.

As you no doubt have experienced I’m more than willing to vigorously defend myself. The misguided comment stems from a long history of really missing the target from Mute to me. It’s great you were being more aggressive, but you lashed out at the wrong things, which is part of the learning process but also at times just plain incorrect.

Perhaps the best and most relevant example I can give you is Sundy’s ‘case’ post against me. Reading it over the first time instantly reminded me of some of your posts where you just latch onto a target and try to blast them into smithereens. The track record of that approach more than speaks for itself.

I'm having a hard time really figuring out if my play is bad, or if I'm just letting you and Concerned bully/"teach" me into submission. I fully admit I've made plenty of mistakes in this game, and the fact that I haven't had a good scum-read yet doesn't help... but you still seem to be the only one who has really been focusing on my playing being "misguided" which makes me not sure if I should be trusting you. I'm going to have to be taking everything you say with a heaping pile of salt now that it's down to the wire.

Your play isn’t bad, especially for a new player. As an aside, scum reading takes a lot of practice to get down and as you can tell from the sordros mishap, mistakes can still be made.

I also hope you don’t feel like I’m bullying you. This is supposed to be fun, if I’m doing something you find inappropriate let me or the mod know. I only play newbie games on this site and that’s because I love having the opportunity to teach new players a game I find really fun. As you and others complained about, I definitely was doing more teaching than scumhunting in the beginning because I wanted you all to understand the basics, but as the game continues I stop being the overprotective mother and start trying to find the scum and make sure the town wins.

I’m not sure if I already said this, but I definitely tried to push you and Neuky hard for the sordros lynch. You probably felt like I was trying to make Neuky and you vote how I wanted you to that day because to be quite frank, I was. As I’ve repeated numerous times I had (misplaced) confidence that sordros was scum and I was hoping one final push could end the game.

LyLo is a different story. I said in my first of this wonderful three part series post, a lot more pressure and responsibility is being put on your shoulders now. Assuming you’re town, I want you to be voting alongside me but the buck does stop here.

I hope you’re taking everything either one of us says with a pile of salt now. I no doubt wouldn’t be blindly following me if I were in your shoes but I do hope you realize that I am trying to purge everything I’m thinking into my posts to provide you with as much open information as I can.

Anyways, it’s 4am and as my amount of thinking comes to a grinding halt I’m going to wrap up. As you can probably tell from the change of tone in my last few points, I do think Sundy is more likely to be the scum than Workdawg at this point. In no way is that set in stone, however I do look forward to reading your responses.

[Workdawg]

WORKDAWG

First off, Post 633 was meant to both break the silence, and to help me gather my thoughts. By the time I was done analyzing the ISO, I was pretty burned out and didn't really feel like giving my overall thoughts on it.

That’s like saying I spent the past month gathering wheat from the field but I’m not going to bother baking it into bread. I respect your initiative to do so many ISO posts, but if you’re taking the time to do them make sure they have a purpose and count for something!

To continue your analogy, maybe I just felt like donating my wheat to the community for their consumption. In any case, I fully intended to give my thoughts on it, and I did.

That said... I think there are some suspicious things in there. I think the most suspicious part is how Stels manages to maintain a null-to-townish-null read on Ty through the entirety of the game despite posting IGMEOY and votes for him. This is established in ISO posts 5 and 18. I don't see any sure signs of scumbuddying between Stels and Ty, but with two SE players as scum, I would hope they would be smart enough to avoid that.

So either I’m an obvious scumbuddy or I don’t appear scummy at all which as an SE makes me scum? I can’t say really agree with this logic at all but I understand the basic idea that you don’t want to trust me just because I wasn’t Stels lover. Fair enough, I would hope that’s the case.

You really seem to have twisted my words here. I can see how you got to "I don't appear scummy at all which makes me scum", but I certainly didn't say that. The "I'm an obvious scumbuddy" part seems to come out of no where though. In fact, no where in the quote you have above did I even mention how you "appeared." I suggest that Stels play doesn't indicate anything for sure. There's also a third option, which you left out, is that you are town and there really was no buddying going on at all. Why would you leave that out? It seems like that would be the first thing going the through the mind of a town player.

I still think Stels reads on your are pretty suspicious. Are you twisting my words around to make it sound like a ridiculous accusation because you can't defend yourself against Stels' actions?

As you no doubt have experienced I’m more than willing to vigorously defend myself. The misguided comment stems from a long history of really missing the target from Mute to me. It’s great you were being more aggressive, but you lashed out at the wrong things, which is part of the learning process but also at times just plain incorrect.

Interesting that you lump yourself in with Mute, confirmed town. How do I know that I'm "missing the target" on you unless I just take your word for it?

[Workdawg]

AN analysis of Stels and Sundy's slot
Stels ISO

#9 - (his first set of reads) Notes that Angry Scientist tunnels on TP42 and calls him out on some mistakes that TP42 blames on newbieness. Townish vibe for AS. Then he questions whether asano actually read the thread or not, because all he's done is parrot others. Gives him a null-tell.
#13 - Apologizes for possibly offending asano. Points out again that asano is posting fluff.
#17 - (the second set of reads) Calls out asano for posting fluff and gives him a null read for it, again. Very early on, asano puts Mute at L-1 and it was a point of dispute at the time. As I wrote this, I immediately reflected on that. Having gone through asano's ISO up until this point though, I'm inclined to agree with Stels read. asano very much does simply parrot others consistently and his vote on Mute seems very newbie to me.
#18 - Justifies his reads to nacho, same as in my ISO looking at Ty. This time though, asano really hasn't done much, so it makes sense.
#19 - Posts a little mini read of asano outlining ONCE AGAIN that he hasn't said anything important. He calls out asano for jumping on Mutes wagon and then right back off at the reaction of everyone else, asking for a reason for that.
#20 - Another comment on asano's fluff

-----

That's it.
Just a ton of mentioning how all asano does it post fluff and a couple null reads. There is a bit of friendly banter in there... welcome, sorry if I offended you, etc, but nothing I would label as buddying. At the end he seems to be a little bit more suspicious of asano's intentions, but he doesn't pursue it at all. He first mentions it in ISO 19, which is on Sunday Jan 30 and he doesn't get lynched until the following Friday. He tries to deflect suspicion onto Neuky at the very end, but doesn't mention asano's play again after ISO 19.

Sundy replaced in Thursday, but Stels never addresses him.

Not much here either, IMO.

[Workdawg]

An analysis of Stels and Sundy's slot
Angry Scientist's ISO

#3 - Notices the quote from Stels where he asks if Ty is jealous, and calls him a goon. Simply asks "What?" in response to it.

That's it... yup.

asano's ISO

#8 - Thanks Stels for the welcome, though it was "derogatory". He says he likes Stels' "breakdown of where he is at" because it is more clear than Mute's table. I think this is a reference to his first set of read in post 148, but I don't know for sure.

...

Sundy's ISO

#2 - Makes his case against Stels and puts the vote at L-1. His case consists of 3 points.
1. Stels rolefishing in Post 109. -- While I agree that rolefishing would be a pretty bad tell, I still don't really see where Stels is doing that. He is replying to TP42's post 103 where TP42 mentions asking the possible cop to investigate someone. I do agree that Stels did misrepresent TP42's claim in implying TP42 "knew" there was a cop, but I don't see Stels as fishing here. It just looks to me like Stels was trying to twist it around and make it look like TP42 was fishing.
2. Something about being inconsistent in regards to his first point, I think. I honestly can't really follow his logic here either. Stels did indeed give two different reactions to TP42's potential rolefishing, but I don't see him referencing any posts past the point he claims to have read to.
3. He links to Stels post 254 and calls it "third time's the charm". Claims that Stels is being further inconsistent in his accusations. Stels says he hasn't read all of page 10, and the post Stels is referring to in his post is about 2/3 the way down the page. It's certainly possible he didn't read the entire page and just stopped there to quote the post and respond. Here's another point that I don't really follow I guess.
#4 - This is after Stels is gone, but it's relevant I think as he discusses some of Stels actions. He asks TP why he voted for for me. He presents two possible options and replies to them. In both, he seems to be almost setting up his case against Mute right away, saying that Stels actions were intended to both protect Mute and get a mislynch on me rather than the other way around.. He also votes for Mute here. First on the wagon even.

---

Overall. The Angry Scientist and asano ISOs don't give me much at all. However, I have to admit that the Sundy ISO looks rather suspicious to me. I wasn't on Stels wagon and was honestly surprised to see him flip scum, but even going back over Sundy's case KNOWING he was right, I don't see it.

@Sundy

Do you think you could go back and try to elaborate on your points for me? Stels got hammered to quickly for me to ask any questions about it, and when he flipped scum I guess I didn't give it another thought.

I also find it pretty suspicious that Sundy immediately voted for Mute at the start of the day (he did say Stels and Mute were his top two picks though). It seems extra suspicious that he set up his post in which he votes for Mute as a sort of "See, Stels was scum and here is how they were scummy together" post under the guise of asking TP42 about his case.

[Sundy]

Hola. Not read through all these posts yet, but I will by tonight. Need to finish a paper ATM

[Ty]

Hey, have an exam today but I should be able to post sometime tomorrow. Thanks.

[Sundy]

The fact you’re now discussing the semantics of a debate (RQS vs. RVS) that is inconsequential to me being scum suggests to me that you don’t have anything further in regards to this point.
…

RVS/RQS point explained and inconsequential to argument. Movement of debate to RVS/RQS debate suggests you can’t find anything else wrong with my argument. The point of pressure of what exactly, putting the vote on Stels? As I’ve said, it wasn’t a pressure vote. It was a nudge to the town in what I thought was the right direction before I left the game.

The RVS vs. RQS debate is semantics, but it's part of a larger question that you've side-stepped, namely why you chose to call Stels scum, and why you asked another player to explain why he was scum. This doesn't make sense to me as a pressuring strategy (the only town motivation) AND I don't take your word for it that it was a "lucky guess." Your final post before you left the game is not relevant to this argument, this is about your INITIAL statements on Stels.

I did read your #604, wherein you specifically state that these paragraphs are (correctly) not a case against me.

Not the point. Yes, Stels didn't give us the air-tight case to prove you were scum with that post, but he did demonstrate familiarity with your play thus far, and still managed to say NOTHING in a later read on you.

You seem to conveniently drop the most obvious and relevant parts of things I’ve done or said, in this case that I’ve consistently agreed with Neuky and expressed my opinion that he was extremely pro-town throughout this entire game.

I did drop the most obvious part. But I didn't drop the most relevant part. Your slot adopted an overall town-read on Neuky, but you also cast hints of suspicion that weren't driven in yet. It's true that town can't know 100% for sure who is who, but you didn't really demonstrate an interest in pressuring Neuky more, you just cast slight aspersion without following up.

Whether you wish to delude yourself or not, the only point in time Stels’ lynching became a possibility was after my “leaving post.”

You can't have it both ways. No player explicitly said they wanted to lynch him, but then your post hardly gets out the pitchforks. IMO it's a distancing vote (that's more interested in Nacho), and it doesn't seal Stels' lynch anymore than 4 other players saying they find him suspicious.

As for your last point about your last point, no doubt my Stels vote had less effort. One, it was my leaving post so I don’t the power of multiple posts to reinforce me opinion, and finally, it was a lynch vote, not a pressure vote. I wasn’t trying to harp on every little thing Stels said, I was trying to make sure he was dead.

This is a lie. You were not trying to make sure he was dead. Your last post of the game before you replaced out said this:

On a similar note, I have

mixed feelings about Stels

. As the other SE he’s definitely faced a lot less criticism than I have and has been much more under the radar. He hasn’t been lurking but he hasn’t necessarily stood out either. Also, it’s hard to differentiate between the two, but I have a gut feeling his advice is also being used to help out a scum partner in distress, possibly Workdawg.

I think it’s

quite possible that either Stels (SE) or the IC position is scum

based on the above and reading their posts throughout the game. My advice to fellow town players is do not blindly follow these positions because they have more experience, as I believe

there is a good chance one of them is playing against you

. Vigilance, my friends, vigilance.

Ty, your entire argument against me sums up to that I'm a) tunneling on you and b) buddying up to Workdawg. It's true that some degree of caution is always good, and I am willing to look back over my reads. However, there's a difference between looking at players carefully and second-guessing yourself, and ignoring the WRITING ON THE WALL in an anti-town manner. In my mind, the chances of Workdawg interacting with his scum-partner as he did with Stels AS A NEWBIE is practically null. And at the same time, you have done lots of scummy things. This isn't a tunnel, it's logic.

Workdawg, you are correct that I jumped on Mute too fast. I had my 2 suspects, 1 flipped scum, and I was ready to prove my scum-hunting powers. It's the confirmation bias from Stels turning up as I suspected. Going back over my 3 original arguments from Stels (which are especially poignant now that TP has flipped PR):

#1: I do think it was role-fishing, and that's my #1 scum-tell. Notice how in the follow-up post he starts asking TP about the presence of a doctor.
#2: In Stels' first post to TP, he asked him "How do you know that there is a cop in this game? … It sounds like you know for sure that there's a cop out there." In his second post to TP, he says "Trying to find the PR's early? No. Don't do that at this point in the game." Notice how the second post seems like he's just now noticing TP's PR post and trying to stifle it (even though he asks follow-up questions), but the first one doesn't display any of that (appropriate) reticence, and just tries to get TP's thoughts on PRs.
#3: I'm not talking about Stels' second paragraph about Mute and page 10, I'm talking about his comment to you, where he says "you can't claim a PR anymore, if there are any." At this point, I don't believe you've implied anything about PRs, and yet he's still speculating about their existence, and implying that your post stated that you were not a PR, which was a misrepresentation.

OK at this point I'm ready for a vote. The evidence points to one interpretation of the game, and Ty has not presented any arguments to cast doubt on this read.

VOTE: Ty

[Workdawg]

I guess I'll post a little update here after thinking about the game for a while. I've reread the back and forth between you and this is where I stand.

I think Ty is our scum. I'm not 100% certain yet, I guess I would say about 80% certain.

One thing that just jumped out at me in Sundy's post above is this quote:

Ty, your entire argument against me sums up to that I'm a) tunneling on you and b) buddying up to Workdawg. It's true that some degree of caution is always good, and I am willing to look back over my reads. However, there's a difference between looking at players carefully and second-guessing yourself, and ignoring the WRITING ON THE WALL in an anti-town manner.

I have to say, this is how I've felt as well. When Ty is pressured, he does seem to attempt to just write off the case as blasphemy and act as though you are crazy for even considering it. Does that make him scum... not really. I say "not really" because it's certainly not a scum tell, and he is defending himself with logic and not just flailing around telling us we are idiots. It still rubs me the wrong way though and it makes me feel like he's getting desperate. Instead of building a case of his own, he's (at least recently) resorted to simply tearing down the cases against him with mediocre success.

@Ty: I know you've acknowledged your "bullying" style before, and I'm not taking it personally... just sharing my thoughts on it now.

Another thing that has been in my mind recently is this quote:

Additionally, I would like you to post three reasons why Sundy is the scum and three reasons why you believe I am scum and be prepared to support them with posts and logic. Don’t use ISOs if they’re going to be a distraction from your reasoning.

I thought it was kind of interesting when he first posted it, but now it seems a lot more so. Ty has said on multiple occasions that he hates "the shotgun approach" to scum hunting. It seems to me like that's what he asked of me above. Not the extend of digging up every little detail and calling it a scum tell, but it just doesn't sit right with me. If I read the whole thread over and can't find a single reason to think Sundy is scum, then what? I just pick the 3 things that seem the least town and pick those? I dunno. It's probably nothing, but it caught my attention.

Other thoughts on Ty.

I think Stels' tells give us the biggest clue. Ty did a lot of posting and scum hunting, but Stels gives him an incredibly neutral read despite all this. He then defends his reads to Nacho by claiming it's because Ty hasn't posted that much. Not a good excuse at all.

The other thing that sticks in my mind about Ty is his previous exit post. I have to go back to my gut on that (My ISO 66). It's full of potential WIFOM and stuff, but I think the important parts are sound.

Here's what I

THINK

happened.
Ty obsesses over Nacho for the first portion of the game. A Stels/Ty (both SEs) scumteam removing the IC would lead to easy victory indeed.
The failhammer incident occurs and people get up in my business (rightfully so).
Despite the other experienced players chalking this up to a newbie mistake, Ty starts a full on charge against me, aiming for what should have been an easy mislynch.
When that falls apart he ends up getting busy and asking to be replaced, so not a lot happens until his exit post.
In his exit post he makes so pretty generic reads I would say. He says that Neuky, TP42, Mute and I are all town. That's consistent among the other experienced players and seems like the safe move. When he gets to Stels and Nacho though, he speculates that one of them is scum. Despite spending the entire first part of the game focusing on Nacho, and even in this post he is still suspicious of him, he casts a vote on Stels whom he only has mixed feelings about rather than vote for Nacho. I think this was an attempt to distance his slot from Stels in case Stels does end up getting lynched before a replacement is found.

[Drench]

The Twenty Third Vote Count - Judgement Day

Workdawg
Sundy
Ty - 1 - Sundy

No Lynch

Not Voting - 2 - Ty, Workdawg

Deadline expires at the 6th of April at 10:57am, AEDST.

[Sundy]

Hmm. The fact that two days have passed without Workdawg hammering takes me from 95% to 99.9% sure that he is good. Basically I cannot imagine a single scenario where such is not the case. Maybe he was some kind of a sleeper who wanted to be tricky by defending his scum-buddy. But in that case, there's no way an experienced player doesn't hammer right now and win the game.

[Workdawg]

Lol. And if anyone was going to quickhammer it probably would have been me.

Unfortunately I'm not quite convinced of Ty's guilt.

@Ty rather than tell me why your innocent, convince me Sundy is scum.