Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[Setael]

I'm not worried about votes piling on you because I think your scum buddies will fight against your lynch. If you really thought I was scum, you'd vote me knowing it'd be extremely tough to pull off my lynch with my buddies highly motivated to mislynch today. The only reason to NOT vote is if you actually think I'm town, in which case the worry that all the scum would jump on and mislynch me.

Activity around here is minimal, and talking things out is no longer so helpful since almost half the living players are scum who can lead the town pretty easily. The best plan seems for me to choose the person I'm most confident is scum and stick with that. That happens to be you.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Setael you shouldn't have voted. Your evidence of Yoshi-scum is entirely from day 1 and you didn't even give him a chance to counter it before you voted, and you just flat out ignored his counter with your most recent post.

I'm not worried about votes piling on you because I think your scum buddies will fight against your lynch. If you really thought I was scum, you'd vote me knowing it'd be extremely tough to pull off my lynch with my buddies highly motivated to mislynch today.

The only reason to NOT vote is if you actually think I'm town, in which case the worry that all the scum would jump on and mislynch me

.

Activity around here is minimal, and talking things out is no longer so helpful since almost half the living players are scum who can lead the town pretty easily. The best plan seems for me to choose the person I'm most confident is scum and stick with that. That happens to be you.

Underlined reasoning only works if Yoshi is a

townie

player, so your mindset is that he is a townie then? I know which one of you two I'm gonna vote for if Yoshi doesn't get quicklynched.

Also voting without giving anybody a chance to answer to your accusations is not the correct move in LyLo.

[neko2086]

Small window to work with, so I'm going to make the most of it.

Set, for realz? My random vote again? You haven't brought anything up that hasn't already been discussed. Also, WMC clearly thought he was laying some sort of trap. If you can make other sense of his posts otherwise, please enlighten me, but it looked very strongly as though people were jumping on a very easy target with no real good reason. His "you all missed the point" post was after he voted Ice, who apparently fell for his 'trap,' so yes, it does refer to his trap, unless you have a better explanation. I think at this point you're belaboring some very useless arguments against me.

Yoshi, even if we're in lylo (which I agree is likely), there is very little chance of scum attempting a quicklynch at this point. Set's vote isn't really all that irresponsible. She is right in that you've not really gotten any attention this game. Why do you think you're still here? Why for example, do you think Ice was the NK after Saint's lynch and not you, especially if implosion is scum? I need to reread you pretty carefully.

I have a very strong feeling that one of implosion and swift is scum. I'm leaning toward scum-swift, who has really not contributed much this game, but has been happy to jump on the major wagons. What worries me most is his voting implosion on speculation that Ice got a guilty result on him when really it doesn't seem so likely that this is the case. I don't think he actually looked into the feasibility of it. There is a possibility that they are both scum, and that swift felt pressured to bus.

I also think there's a good chance both implosion and zdenek are scum. Both avoided the Saint wagon like the plague, as though they knew it was bad. Their interactions today seem soft, but anyway I need to look into this more later. Gotta run.

[Zdenek]

Setael, Neko's post,

vote: implosion for making silly declarations and drawing inane connections on page one. This game is probably moving out of RVS rather quickly but dammit I haven't even posted yet!

is not that much like Silavor's. His comment does imply that his vote is RVS, but I feel that he didn't try to disown his argument by saying that his vote is an RVS vote the way that Silavor did:

Vote:Weapon
for being jumpy, defensive, using IIoA as a scumtell on page 1, and because it's still RVS.

Silavor's vote really gives me a different feeling and the fact that he tried to brush it off as a joke afterwards is what actually bothered me about him.

Cognitive dissonance alert: I'd also like to point out the following.

1) neko wanted to distance from his scum buddy implosion with his "random" vote. Because it was distancing he felt like he needed a real reason and exaggerated what implosion had actually done, while all the while hiding behind that second sentence which implied it was a random vote. 2) neko is scum trying to cast suspicion on implosion town while avoiding responsibility by hiding behind the sentence implying it's a random vote. I don't see a possibility of this post being made by town.]

This post indicates a connection between neko and zdenek, since here zdenek votes silavor for doing exactly what neko had just done, but he says nothing about neko.

He says that he couldn't see Neko's post coming from town, and that Silavor's post does exactly the same thing as Neko's, but let's all remember that Silavor was town.

Combining this with the fact that his argument against Yoshi was really reaching, the fact that he has completely dropped Implosion as a suspect today despite the fact that is argument yesterday identified him as scum independently of whatever flips have occurred and the fact that the other three people on the early WoMC wagon have all flipped town, I think he's a good candidate for scum, and I'd like to hear what others think of him.

[Setael]

I think

he's a good candidate for scum, and I'd like to hear what others think of [her].

You mean you think I'm a good candidate for a mislynch, but in order to avoid negative attention you'd prefer others to get their hands dirty. I notice you didn't say anything about darth, but you felt perfectly comfortable blatantly defending neko. I may be wrong about neko but I think I'm right that you and darth are scum buddies. I attack darth, you avoid mentioning darth at all and instead attack me.

My main reason for voting implosion yesterday (as you pointed out) was I thought it likely that ice had investigated him. Now that nameless has flipped, I think it's more likely that he investigated nameless and got an innocent on him. I still think ice's case was good and I'm not sure about implosion. I've been rethinking the game and implosion is definitely not my #1 suspect.

Here's how I see it: Scum haven't had to work too hard to get mislynches this game. mb was the best option to avoid killing empking, ice did most the work for saint, and empking was entirely responsible for his own. It makes the most sense for scum to have sat back and avoided negative attention while the townies ran up other townies. The person whose play looks most like this is darth. I haven't been able to reread much of the thread yet, but I know he has played safely and carefully. If he were really a townie, I think he'd have pressured me a lot more about my saint vote. As scum, his play makes more sense. Poke a little, but not too much to put yourself in the spotlight and certainly not enough to derail a perfectly good saint mislynch.

[Zdenek]

Setael, that wasn't a defence of Neko. It was a defence of my early vote on Silavor. Also, I did say something about Darth: I think your case on him is reaching.

What makes you think that ICE got an innocent on Nameless?

[Setael]

I said this yesterday - the way ice said he reread nameless and decided he was town looked like he had possibly investigated him and gotten a town result.

Your post is dismissing what neko did as so different from silavor's when it's virtually the same thing. In both cases, the second part of their post indicated that their vote was still random when they were actually giving real reasons.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

I can't help but notice that both Setael and neko aren't actually responding to what I have accused them of in my posts.

Ho hum.

...
there is very little chance of scum attempting a quicklynch at this point.
...

Eh? Why WOULDN'T the scum want to quicklynch and win the game if they could?

[Setael]

Setael you shouldn't have voted. Your evidence of Yoshi-scum is entirely from day 1 and you didn't even give him a chance to counter it before you voted, and you just flat out ignored his counter with your most recent post.

I'm not worried about votes piling on you because I think your scum buddies will fight against your lynch. If you really thought I was scum, you'd vote me knowing it'd be extremely tough to pull off my lynch with my buddies highly motivated to mislynch today.

The only reason to NOT vote is if you actually think I'm town, in which case the worry that all the scum would jump on and mislynch me

.

Activity around here is minimal, and talking things out is no longer so helpful since almost half the living players are scum who can lead the town pretty easily. The best plan seems for me to choose the person I'm most confident is scum and stick with that. That happens to be you.

Underlined reasoning only works if Yoshi is a

townie

player, so your mindset is that he is a townie then? I know which one of you two I'm gonna vote for if Yoshi doesn't get quicklynched.

Also voting without giving anybody a chance to answer to your accusations is not the correct move in LyLo.

You're right, I didn't think that through obviously. There's no reason for darth not to vote me if he's town and thinks I'm scum.

[neko2086]

King, I thought I addressed everything. What is it exactly you want to know?

To your most recent question, if Yoshi and Set are both town (which I am finding increasingly likely), I would like to see a three person scumteam try and pull off a quicklynch. In my last game, I was part of a two person scumteam with daytalk, and even then it wasn't so easy to coordinate a quicklynch. If we're in lylo, there is a three person scumteam and most likely with no daytalk, or that would be terribly imbalanced, which means they have to coordinate somehow in-game. To be safe, Set, if you're town, please check this thread frequently in case you need to unvote quickly.

In rereading, I'm favoring a swift-zed pairing, mostly because of this:

post 610

Swift replacing in and immediately saying that he doesn't like that

Empking was insinuating that he his is scum buddy

was anti-town, and it bothers me.
--Cut--

No I said I didn't like him insinuating I was his mason partner (as he had claimed Mason), so scum slip much there.

VOTE ZDENEK
FOS EMPKING

The "slip" he catches is really nothing extraordinary. I say this not only because I don't see much in it myself, but also because nobody else really seems to see much in it, and on top of that, swift doesn't seem to be too convinced of it himself. He later admits that he didn't push the case too much, which is an understatement. He didn't push it at all. During this time, while the wagon on Saint built up, he made one comment on Saint:

...
Why is it better to lynch more active scum than an inactive one, surely a more active scum is more likely to slip that an inactive one? At the moment Saint your jumping wagons to start a counter wagon on anyone has me wondering if I have read this Zdenek thing right and whether you should be today's lynch.

I don't know how I missed his aversion to the Saint wagon as well. It's rather striking. He also makes his post about suspecting Yoshi because of his playstyle. Yet, he keeps his vote on zdenek until the end of the day.

It is possible, of course, that he picked out zed somewhat randomly, but based on their interactions, I'd guess a scum pairing. Now, to test this with my earlier speculation of swift-implosion and zed-implosion, it should be noted that implosion has listed two town reads, neither of which are these two.

I want to reiterate something: the interaction between zed and implosion is very soft. To illustrate:

KTS is my biggest townread,

Really? Please explain this.

I thought he looked like town when he was arguing with Empking. He had logic and didn't look like mafia.

from today, and from yesterday:

While I am not a big fan of the case on Implosion based on ICE's posts, but after skimming his ISO, I can see that there is a reasonable case that can be made on him. In particular, I would like to point out that in his more recent post, he comments that he doesn't have any scum reads. This can be a scum-tell because of the difficulty that scum can have faking scum hunting. Because of this, I am not too unhappy with the fact that he claimed. I'm pretty doubtful that there will be any other pro-town roles in a game with masons (assuming Empking is telling the truth) and a cop, and anyone could figure that out, so the VT claim was expected.

I claimed because I'm (or was) at L-1. I don't see how having "difficulty faking scumhunting" would lead me to say I have no fosses if I were in reality scum; the job of mafia is to avoid looking like mafia. Doing something as blatantly scummy as saying I have no fosses isn't something scum would probably do. Now, obviously, you can respond to this by saying it's WIFOM. Then again, so is everything in mafia.

Also, without having to quote the whole thing, in implosion's VCA, he mentions early on that he doesn't like zed's voting pattern because he has a "useless vote" for awhile before jumping on a townie wagon. He never mentions that useless vote again, even though that's pretty much been the case the entire game.

I'm not entirely convinced of this entire combination yet, but I feel pretty confident there is a pairing here somewhere.

[Setael]

unvote

I need to look into a few things.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Setael you shouldn't have voted. Your evidence of Yoshi-scum is entirely from day 1 and you didn't even give him a chance to counter it before you voted, and you just flat out ignored his counter with your most recent post.

I'm not worried about votes piling on you because I think your scum buddies will fight against your lynch. If you really thought I was scum, you'd vote me knowing it'd be extremely tough to pull off my lynch with my buddies highly motivated to mislynch today.

The only reason to NOT vote is if you actually think I'm town, in which case the worry that all the scum would jump on and mislynch me

.

Activity around here is minimal, and talking things out is no longer so helpful since almost half the living players are scum who can lead the town pretty easily. The best plan seems for me to choose the person I'm most confident is scum and stick with that. That happens to be you.

Underlined reasoning only works if Yoshi is a

townie

player, so your mindset is that he is a townie then? I know which one of you two I'm gonna vote for if Yoshi doesn't get quicklynched.

Also voting without giving anybody a chance to answer to your accusations is not the correct move in LyLo.

You're right, I didn't think that through obviously. There's no reason for darth not to vote me if he's town and thinks I'm scum.

...
...
What?

That was not even close to what my point was.

King, I thought I addressed everything.
...

Here is the accusation:

...
King, I've forgotten that you've made the same call for a lynch on emp as zdenek. Looking back you said we all agreed we'd kill him if he made it too far. Did we? I don't remember this.

Also, why hold back a scum case on someone you think is scum?

So he doesn't attack you again? Because it was no longer convenient? At any rate, why don't you make that list if all the scummy things he's done lately now?
...

I gave the reason I held back the case right there in my post. It was unnecessarily distracting the town.

A list of everything he has done scummy lately would primarily consist of every single post he has made so far day 3 with a couple of comments below them. I mean that literally. Every single post. I kind of expected the "I fakeclaimed mason and lied like crazy to stay alive this far" thing would be enough to lynch him without needing to do that...

OH HEY LOOK AT THE STUFF I FOUND ON REREAD.

...
The exchange between King and Emp is really distracting.
...
2) Emp and King are dominating the discussion.
...
He's trying to show (albeit in a faulty way) that you are intentionally trying to distract the town.
...

Almost as if you knew my argument was just pointlessly distracting the town from the start but ignore that as a reason I wouldn't keep doing it in order to attack me.

...

I underlined and bolded it.

[Swiftstrike]

First of all I'ld like to apologize for being away the last few day's got informed I would be having an auditor in at work and my paperwork was nowhere near up to scratch so spent the last few days resorting, refiling and generally catching up on that night and day. Having just reread over the end of the last day phase to see if there was something in the lynch and the movement from Implosion to Emp and I can't really see anything.

With the likelyhood that we are now at lylo wouldn't now be the best time to see a role claim from everyone to see if there is any information out there that would better inform the town?

[KingTwelveSixteen]

...
With the likelyhood that we are now at lylo wouldn't now be the best time to see a role claim from everyone to see if there is any information out there that would better inform the town?

My role is still claimed, just like it has been from day 1...

[Swiftstrike]

...
With the likelyhood that we are now at lylo wouldn't now be the best time to see a role claim from everyone to see if there is any information out there that would better inform the town?

My role is still claimed, just like it has been from day 1...

Yes, you and Implosion have claims out there already I'm wondering if it time to mass claim.

[Setael]

I'm willing if that's the consensus.

[DarthYoshi]

^This (re: massclaim).

I had good reasons for not voting Setael out of the gate when she voted for me--namely, that I wasn't convinced enough that she was scum to vote for her in a LyLo situation. Her unvote muddies the waters somewhat for me, but I have to think that if she was town, one of the scum would have also likely tried voting for me in an effort to generate that final mislynch. Even though I'm still leaning towards scum for her, my most confident scumread may well remain to be Implosion. But Neko's arguments about a Swift-Z connection are something I'm going to need to go re-read and look at as well. I feel like both players--especially Swift, as he hasn't had the V/LAs that Z has had--have done a fair amount of flying under the radar throughout the game (including Swift's predecessor, who got away with basically dropping out of the game pretty early in D1).

I know Neko said he's leaning town on me, too, but I do want to respond to one thing he said in particular--

Set's vote isn't really all that irresponsible. She is right in that you've not really gotten any attention this game. Why do you think you're still here? Why for example, do you think Ice was the NK after Saint's lynch and not you, especially if implosion is scum? I need to reread you pretty carefully.

There are two problems with this. First, this also reads as another variation of the too-townie fallacy. Second, I think trying to read into potential NK motives is an inaccurate art; but if I had to venture a guess, two of my scumreads (Saint and Emp) both flipped town, so scum may not view me as much of a threat. I'll concede that this is making me re-evaluate my ScumImp read, but I think that is getting very close to WIFOM territory. Questions like these aren't all that helpful.

I'll probably have more to say when Setael is done re-reading and/or re-allocates her vote.

[Zdenek]

You mean you think I'm a good candidate for a mislynch, but in order to avoid negative attention you'd prefer others to get their hands dirty.

I've given reasons for why I am suspicious of you.

I said this yesterday - the way ice said he reread nameless and decided he was town looked like he had possibly investigated him and gotten a town result.

Are you ignoring this?

To be honest I'm not perfectly sure how I'd feel about Nameless based on a town Saint flip.

We should mass claim. I'm fine with popcorn style and I don't object to going first, but if someone would like to propose an order, I'm okay with that too.

[Nexus]

Votecount the Twenty-Seventh:

Not voting: DarthYoshi, implosion, KingTwelveSixteen, neko2086, Setael, Swiftstrike, Zdenek

It takes 4 to lynch, 4 to no lynch. The deadline is 3pm (GMT) on the 1st April 2011.

I needed prodding. Implosion will be prodded in the morning if he hasn't posted before I wake up.

[implosion]

Massclaim is good at this stage. I'm fine with popcorn.

Something about Setael's voting Darth gives me townvibes - probably the fact that several others are calling him town. I think it would be really strange for scum, in such a great position, to push on someone that a lot of other people are calling town. I agree that Setael shouldn't have voted yet, but I think it's a towntell.

[neko2086]

King, I addressed that, even though you didn't even formulate that in a way that anyone should expect to have to address it. Again, arguing with somebody and making an argument as part of a case is not the same thing.

I'm in favor of massclaim. Since King's alignment is claimed, if we're going to popcorn, he may as well decide who goes first.

Yoshi, you're right in that NK speculation is not always fruitful, but I don't think it can be completely ignored in the position we're in. It is, in a sense, some of the only real information we have to work with. I'm just trying to think of the possibilities of motivations considering those who are left.

Implosion, that argument is terribly flawed. Lylo is not an easy position for anyone, and I think the scum's position is being highly overestimated, which could be very detrimental to us if we start making too many assumptions. Nothing can be taken for granted at this point.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Well, I think Setael should claim first because of his early vote.

[Setael]

VT

[DarthYoshi]

Setael, who do you want to claim next? (That is how popcorn works, right? Person who claims chooses the person who goes next?)

[Setael]

Oh yeah. Zdenek you go next.