Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys! - Over

[DemonHybrid]

Does anyone think 4 mafia vs. 2 watchers and a jail keeper is possible?

The real question is whether 3 mafia vs. 2 watchers and a jail keeper is possible. If not, it's time to look for scum partnerships.

See, I would doubt that. It seems like there's no benefit to mafia for having a traitor, and there really doesn't seem to be a scum role that could balance out two watchers and a jailkeeper by itself vs 3 mafia.

Have you reported your first 3 watches?

[DemonHybrid]

Sure.

Night 1, I targeted AGar. This is my first non-Newbie game where I didn't play a VT, so I wasn't quite sure how to use the role, and I targeted someone I found suspicious. However, no one targeted AGar, and from the way the mod worded the results, I knew I should start looking at people I thought would be targeted.

Night 2, I targeted Parama. Maemuki visited him that night.

Night 3, I watched Bub. No one visited him.

Quick ISO. Apparently you did and I missed it.

[DemonHybrid]

This is going to sound crazy, but after reading more closely into your reaction and your watch results, I find them genuine.

In that case, I'm going to bet on this being LyLo, and that we'd have to be so extremely careful. 3 mafia and a traitor seems oddly balanced against two watchers and a JKer (a role that can cause just as much harm as good).

I also have my eye on the ones that wanted to lynch Sundy just because of his claim instead of taking the time to analyze the motivation behind claiming a role that has already been flipped.

In fact...

Pseudovote goes on AGar.

Vote: Sundy

Still not comfortable with DH, but I can't get anything more than uber-bus/chaining lynches and the NK analysis, which isn't enough here.

Sundy, you're now at L-1. Enjoy, scumbag.

This came out of NOWHERE, and you have contributed nothing to a case on him other than "2ND WATCHER WTF LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH!!!!"

So, in light of that, I retract my Sundy read, and I will gladly lynch AGar, but only after people are ready to lynch and we've exhausted all possible information from this day.

[DemonHybrid]

Votecount analysis time.

Akira

(7) - DemonHybrid,

Parama

, AGar,

[winger]

,

TwistedSpoon

, Sundy, crazypianist1116

Cecily

(1) -

Riceballtail

Not Voting (5) -

Maemuki

,

Oso

,

Akira

, Bud Bidderskins,

Cecily

^ Akira lynch wagon

Cecily

(6) - crazypianist1116,

Parama

, DemonHybrid,

Maemuki

,

TwistedSpoon

, Bub Bidderskins,

Not Voting (5) -

Oso

,

Cecily

, AGar, Sundy,

Riceballtail

^ Cecily lynch wagon

Oso

(3) -

Parama

, Bub Bidderskins, AGar
Sundy (1) -

Riceballtail

Not Voting (5) -

Oso

, DemonHybrid, Sundy, crazypianist1116,

TwistedSpoon

^ Oso's L-1

Riceballtail

(5) - AGar,

Parama

, DemonHybrid, crazypianist1116,

TwistedSpoon

Bub Bidderskins (1) -

Oso

TwistedSpoon

(1) - Sundy
AGar (1) -

Riceballtail

Oso

(1) - Bub Bidderskins

Not Voting (0) - No one

^ RBT's lynch wagon

Oso

(4) - Sundy, Bub Bidderskins,

TwistedSpoon

, crazypianist1116
Sundy (3) - DemonHybrid,

Oso

, AGar



^ Oso's lynchwagon. Tied vote was 3 vs 3 with CP off the wagon until the hammer.

As for my suspicion on AGar...

TS buddying noted.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Akira

Why do you find these people before me Matt?

This was the vote when he switched to Akira. Only interaction before this was a response to Akira's question.


Day 2: He doesn't vote Cecily or mention him.

Day 3: All mentioning of Cecily was with the "DH is chaining lynches" theory and nothing else. In fact, AGar said nothing about Cecily Day 1, except for this post:

Twisted is almost assuredly town.

Explain pl0x. I'm intrigued by this particular read.

Cecily-scum is trying to start a counterwagon on Twisted.

Interesting.
Tech explanation.
I grok.

I've been hanging out with Thor too much...

Which kind of contradicts the "Hey, he was definitely town and you were chaining lynches" opinion he had...



This is his Oso vote:

Let me rephrase it:

For example: Parama and I did the same thing. Why isn't he suspect to you as well, AGar? Your reasoning is ludacris if you are voting me just for that, so please look at the people late wagoning Akira and voting Cecily without voting Akira, in this case, Bub.

Is that better?

Parama didn't latch onto a refusal to vote on D1. He may have guaranteed a scum-flip on Cecily, but he didn't insinuate that come hell or high water he was going to be voting Cecily. You did. THAT is the key point here.

The deflection onto Parama, I get what it is. It's a tactic to clear yourself, not throw suspicion onto Parama. Instead you're just making yourself look worse.

Just go easily.

So, you are voting me over word choice and not action nor intent?

AGar, you're a much better player than this.

The word choice belies the intent.

Buuuuut.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Oso

365 was "ohshitImcaught" in many many more cleverly crafted wrods.

Up to this point, he hasn't mentioned Oso. He was third on the wagon.



But then when I point out RBT's lurkiness...

VOTE: Riceballtail

Pretty much textbook lurker-scum. Latest post projecting about the TS wagon was one of the scummiest posts I've seen in a long time.

Out of nowhere. This is coming off of his TS wagon, which he was late on. 4th, to be exact.



Then, his vote for Sundy. Again, 3rd on the wagon.

VOTE: Sundy

Still not comfortable with DH, but I can't get anything more than uber-bus/chaining lynches and the NK analysis, which isn't enough here.

Sundy, you're now at L-1. Enjoy, scumbag.

Mentioned this in the last post. Now he's trying to lynch him based only on his claim.


I'm going to vote. This game is stagnating and this should be more than enough evidence to support my suspicion.

Vote: AGar

[Enigma]

Votecount 5.1

AGar (1) DemonHybrid

Not Voting (4) - Bub Bidderskins, AGar, Sundy, crazypianist1116

With 5 Alive it takes 3 to lynch, 2 to no lynch.
The

deadline

is 1:00am 4th April GMT+10.30.

[AGar]

Well that's kind of a lot of blatant distortion there, DH.

I missed D2 because of the speed-lynch. I didn't POST on Day 2. There's no way I could have voted or discussed Cecily.

As for my "WTF 2nd WATCHER LYNCH LYNCH" coming out of "nowhere" - I missed the end of D4. Again, this game has been flying at a quicker rate than most games where certain events happen in a matter of hours rather than over the course of a few days. So when I saw a second watcher claim, my first thought was "Yeah, we lynched that jackass." Instead we lynched Oso. That was probably the second-dumbest town play I've seen.

Re: Akira - you found the slip on what, page 8? If we were 12, 15 pages in, I could understand. But with half the game being RVS shenanigans at that point, and the CP/[winger] dueling, I had other interests.

Re: Cecily - I never said Cecily was a bad lynch. This is a straight up misrepresentation. My accusation on you was that, with the flip already in mind now, you seemed to be chaining lynches. Cecily WAS trying to start a counter-wagon, and I got that. I would have put my vote down more than likely on D2. But the fact is you insisted on the wagon, and when a townie gets wagonned with reckless abandon, I'd venture that it was heavily scum-driven. Oh look, Parama was on it. And you were nice an early.


A case this bad and poorly thought out is straight up scum trying to push through a mislynch for the sake of getting one in. This isn't bad logic, this is ignorance of facts to paint things in your favor. God damn, that was one of the scummiest posts I've read in a while.

VOTE: DemonHybrid

[DemonHybrid]

Re: Cecily - I never said Cecily was a bad lynch. This is a straight up misrepresentation.

Just would like to comment on this; you didn't say it, but you implied it.

Even if that were the case, since you barely said anything about Cecily, how could anyone have known that you had an opinion on Cecily's wagon? You barely said anything about everyone wagoned until the wagon was full speed ahead or the lynch already went through; there's no denying that.

[DemonHybrid]

Also, AGar, I would like a list of town motivation and scum motivation for claiming Town Watcher after a Town Watcher had already flipped.

[AGar]

Re: Cecily - I never said Cecily was a bad lynch. This is a straight up misrepresentation.

Just would like to comment on this; you didn't say it, but you implied it.

Even if that were the case, since you barely said anything about Cecily, how could anyone have known that you had an opinion on Cecily's wagon? You barely said anything about everyone wagoned until the wagon was full speed ahead or the lynch already went through; there's no denying that.

Let me post in bold caps for you:

I DIDN'T POST AT ALL DURING DAY 2. THE SPEED OF THE LYNCH PREVENTED ME GETTING ANY WORDS IN EDGEWISE ON DAY 2.

---

Re: Claim

Town Motivations: Claim in hopes of exonerating ones' self in the face of a lynch. I don't see much merit to it other wise.
Scum Motivations: Go for the WIFOM gambit, hoping to confuse the town into not lynching you (oh look...). Try and create a justification for the scummy nature of play. Create cognitive dissonance among townies, causing them to question they're reads, partially by way of the WIFOM gambit ("He acted really scummy, but he's claiming a role that already flipped - that'd be a terrible fake claim for scum, wouldn't it?")

[AGar]

Addendum, since this seems to be a hinge-point of your case:

Day 2 lasted from 5:33 PM on 3/5 to 12:27 AM 3/6. I post in the AM hours almost regularly save for when I have days off. I rarely have any weekend days off. I posted, in a rare occurence, at 5:19 PM that night, then not again on-site until 8 AM the next morning.

[DemonHybrid]

I was talking about Day 1 and Day 3. I know very well you had no time to post Day 2.

[AGar]

I'm pretty sure on D1 saying an explanation provided is "tech" and I "grok" (means understand, picked it up off Thor) would imply general agreeance with a theory of scumminess.

[DemonHybrid]

Then what was with the opposition? The lynch was a no brainer for D2, its weird that you complained about it and its kind of arbitrary when you picked on me for it.

[AGar]

Then what was with the opposition? The lynch was a no brainer for D2, its weird that you complained about it and its kind of arbitrary when you picked on me for it.

Because in retrospect with a flip, I said that it looked like you chained a lynch on a player you KNEW was town. You moreso than anyone else. The deflection onto Parama still holds pretty valid when called out on it.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm pretty sure I explained my Parama comparison ages ago.

[Sundy]

OK scum-team speculation time. I am wondering about an Agar/Crazy possibility.

The first suspicion of the game is DH on Crazy. On #45, Agar explicitly started a counter-wagon on Winger, and continued to advocate for it. Eventually there are 6 people on the Winger wagon: Oso, Sundy, Crazy, Agar, Akira, Cecily. Perhaps it's unlikely that all 3 scum (excluding the traitor, who was happily bussing?) jumped onto his wagon, but I am still looking at Agar for starting it.

Funny/guilty(?) exchange between Crazy/Agar:

Get out of my head Agar

And

for those who will inevitably misinterpret it

, that was a joke.

Two more points against Agar:

1) When Agar voted DH, Parama said DH was scummy for not responding to Agar's accusations. Agar eventually abandoned this idea to vote for Oso. I still don't understand why Agar chose DH as opposed to ANY of the other people who chain-lynched, and at the time I listed Agar as the #1 scummiest player because of it.

2) Also he is the first to push the idea that we are in a good position with a 6:1 scenario.

[AGar]

I'm pretty sure I explained my Parama comparison ages ago.

It's still deflection. It's still scummy as hell.

[DemonHybrid]

I explained specifically why it was an example and not a deflection.

[AGar]

I explained specifically why it was an example and not a deflection.

Because I wasn't looking at the big picture? That's not an explanation. That's a copout to try and get me off of your case.

Both times you

specifically

mentioned Parama, and then later on you proceeded to ask how you were different from someone who didn't vote for Akira but then voted for Cecily (hint: you said it yourself - you voted for Akira, they didn't. People's opinions will change after a flip,

especially

a scumflip).

You've been using pretty weak logic as the game has progressed and pretty much coasted on catching that slip. That slip could have easily been a hyper-bus, and that wouldn't shock me. Again, your only direct example of someone else who was on Akira and on Cecily that could have done the same thing was Parama. And oh boy, he flipped scum. But he flipped traitor, which leads me to believe you were under the impression he was town and were trying to deflect suspicion onto him, and that a town-flip on Parama would exonerate you. Funny, I call you out for that on D3, and bam, he dies N3. Potentially coincidence, but I think otherwise.

I'm very comfortable with my vote where it is.

[DemonHybrid]

My explanation is that I could have picked anyone who lynched Akira and then lynched Cecily and they would have applied to your reasoning. I picked Parama because he seemed so damn town to you to make a point.

Also, it's easy for someone to just state that my logic was weak, but it seems kinda contradictory after you JUST stated that my logic was okay a few posts ago.

[AGar]

I said your responses were townish on Day 3... that was a loooong time ago.

And guess what - that's exactly what I'm saying you were trying to do - PICKING OUT TOWNLIKE PLAYERS TO EXONERATE YOURSELF.

Just because one town person does it != you are town for doing it too.

[DemonHybrid]

But you completely disregard my point; you had no case to begin with since I was in the same boat as those players you found completely town.

Regardless, do you have a case other than "DH has a case on me and he said this to debunk my argument"? What else have I done that's scummy to you?

[Bub Bidderskins]

Why so defensive DH?

I'm just showing crazy how uneducated that statement was and how big of an impact a misrep like that can make in a near-endgame situation.

Fair enough. I view role-fishing to be a marginal tell in anyway, and you were being mis-repped.

As far as AGar vs DH, I have to agree with DH. AGar fails to grasp what DH actually did when he mentioned Parama. Over the course of the game, DH has been townish, and I simply don't buy the "super-bus Akira, lynch Cecily" theory.

Also:

I didn't know I was going to hammer Oso at the time. I was weighing the options and thought Sundy pointed out some good holes in Oso's argument that I need to reevaluate now. When I asked for the claim, I was leaning towards hammering Sundy. I agree with you on the possible Lylo Bub. Don't vote unless you're positive!

You were leaning towards hammering Sundy, but you hammered Oso when he claimed vanilla townie. What was it about Oso's claim that made you want to lynch him instead of Sundy?

[DemonHybrid]

CP needs to post thoughts. Now.

[crazypianist1116]

CP needs to post thoughts. Now.

Ok.

My gut's telling me Agar but my brain's telling me DH. DH's case on AGar just seems really bad. Based purely on vote analysis that doesn't really seem scummy. Also AGar's logic is good on why 2 watchers seems like a bad idea.

I feel like if AGar was scum, he'd be advocating for a Sundy lynch more as both Bub and I would be more easily turned to vote for him after D4.

The DH-AGar voting for each other tells me either:
a. We aren't in LyLo and/or
b. One of you is scum

And then we have this:

But then when I point out RBT's lurkiness...

VOTE: Riceballtail

Pretty much textbook lurker-scum. Latest post projecting about the TS wagon was one of the scummiest posts I've seen in a long time.

Out of nowhere. This is coming off of his TS wagon, which he was late on. 4th, to be exact.

Funny, you never did point out RBT's lurkiness, at least before his vote.

Vote: DemonHybrid

I feel more comfortable with this than an AGar vote and seeing as both of them are not voting for Sundy, pursuing a Sundy lynch will not happen.

Funny/guilty(?) exchange between Crazy/Agar:

Get out of my head Agar

And

for those who will inevitably misinterpret it

, that was a joke.

Context missing? DH and Parama were trying to lynch me for shit reasons.

I didn't know I was going to hammer Oso at the time. I was weighing the options and thought Sundy pointed out some good holes in Oso's argument that I need to reevaluate now. When I asked for the claim, I was leaning towards hammering Sundy. I agree with you on the possible Lylo Bub. Don't vote unless you're positive!

You were leaning towards hammering Sundy, but you hammered Oso when he claimed vanilla townie. What was it about Oso's claim that made you want to lynch him instead of Sundy?

I think you're a bit confused. Sundy was the one who I asked to claim not Oso as he already claimed. I didn't lynch Oso because of his claim but because of Sundy around page 24ish.