Open 291 Frenenemies (+ other guy) - Game over: Wolves win!

[Krazy]

There were a lot of typos in that last post because I'm in a bit of a rush at this point. Anyway, this will probably be my last post before I'm officially lynched.

GOOD LUCK TOWN!

(even though you suck for lynching me )

[singersigner]

Um...aaah, wizrak, park...banned for cheating...replaced because of bans...

Also, ten points for whoever can find the oxymoron. lol.

[ThAdmiral]

vote count

Crazy
tclawren

Krazy - 6 (Crazy, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Glass, DeathRowKitty, chkflip, LlamaFluff)

Quaroath
singersigner
Glass
smashbro_of_the_SSS
DeathRowKitty
LlamaFluff
chkflip - 3 (singersigner, Krazy, tclawren)
Furculow

Not voting - Quaroath, Furculow


Thats a lynch!

Krazy was a

[/i]

Townie

It is now night 1

[ThAdmiral]

I'm sorry for the delay. Have been busy with uni assignments!

Day 2 will start as soon as I get home from work.

[ThAdmiral]

Quaroath has been shot. He was a

Townie

DeathRowKitty has been eaten. He was a

Mafia

It is now day 2. With 8 alive it is 5 to lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

First, its best if we hit mafia today, leaves us with masons + backup and two vanilla vs two scum. This is a great position because we have half the game clear going into mylo. Hitting wolf isnt that bad, as since we just saw crosskills happen, but suboptimal. Mafia should shoot for wolf if we hit town today.

Also I told you RQS is scummy, but anyways

From park interactions, Crazy, Singer (wizrak) and chck? are probably not mafia.
From DKR interactions, aah not mafia?

Its one of tcl, Glass and SSS to me. Outside chance chck, but I think parks play points away from that one quite a bit.

Vote tclawren

he comes in and lays out basically all middle of the road reads, and then throws the vote on chick. His stance on DRK is very noteworthy though

DRK: Deathly good player that I'm hesitant to say town for. Still I'm leaning town.

He ignored what park did (who was scummy unlike DRK) and ignores what I said on park early. Instead he writes him off as leaning town in a way that makes it sound like he wasnt for some reason, like he has a reason to think DRK was actually scum that never came up (like he is scum with him?).

I can get behind a Glass wagon too, but I think the basic ingoring between tlc-DRK and the middling read that tlc gave DRK (along with everyone else) makes it the right spot to start the wagon.

[Quaroath]

Bah, go town

[Crazy]

@Mod

Was the back-up mason determined at the start of the game or will the role just go to a random townie that's still alive whenever one of the masons die? If it's the former, then what would happen if the back-up mason died before he became a mason? Would he be revealed as a "Back-Up Mason" or as a "Townie?"

Also, if both masons died in the same night, would the back-up mason still be notified and get a link to their QT?

[tclawren]

First, its best if we hit mafia today, leaves us with masons + backup and two vanilla vs two scum. This is a great position because we have half the game clear going into mylo. Hitting wolf isnt that bad, as since we just saw crosskills happen, but suboptimal. Mafia should shoot for wolf if we hit town today.

Also I told you RQS is scummy, but anyways

From park interactions, Crazy, Singer (wizrak) and chck? are probably not mafia.
From DKR interactions, aah not mafia?

Its one of tcl, Glass and SSS to me. Outside chance chck, but I think parks play points away from that one quite a bit.

Vote tclawren

he comes in and lays out basically all middle of the road reads, and then throws the vote on chick. His stance on DRK is very noteworthy though

DRK: Deathly good player that I'm hesitant to say town for. Still I'm leaning town.

He ignored what park did (who was scummy unlike DRK) and ignores what I said on park early. Instead he writes him off as leaning town in a way that makes it sound like he wasnt for some reason, like he has a reason to think DRK was actually scum that never came up (like he is scum with him?).

I can get behind a Glass wagon too, but I think the basic ingoring between tlc-DRK and the middling read that tlc gave DRK (along with everyone else) makes it the right spot to start the wagon.

Will be rereading (again) tonight for possible maf connections between DRK/Zodiark/Park and the rest of the field, but let me first address this post.

My reads were, as a whole, middle of the field because there wasn't that much to go on. The activity level was spotty and it was really hard to get reads on all of the people who were replacing in.

As for DRK, I read your thing about Park. It just wasn't conclusive enough to vote for him because he was active lurking, because frankly, that's all Park ever did. He was a terrible player. But, kudos to you for teasing that out. As for my tentativeness about DRK, I felt that his play was "pro-town", but oddly different. Which made me worry about him.

If you have any more questions about my super hurried reads on the players, shoot them my way. Thanks.

[Crazy]

Thinking it over, I want to VOTE: LlamaFluff for trying to take us on a mafia-hunt. I think he's a werewolf trying to force the spotlight on finding mafia rather than finding werewolves or just finding scum in general. Honestly, a werewolf lynch isn't

that

bad, and I'm pretty sure in most cases it will actually be

better

.

Lynching mafia today will put us in a 4-2 endgame tomorrow. Lynching a werewolf today could lead to a bunch of possibilities. Most of them are better than a 4-2 endgame. If we lynch the other mafia today, we destroy the possibility of crosskills on Night 2 AND Night 3.

Also, a mislynch in 4-2 will lead to a werewolf win. A mislynch in 3-1-1 means the game still continues with a Prisoner Dilemma-like problem where the town still has a chance to win.

The only way a werewolf lynch would be

worse

is if both scum-teams ended up killing different masons (which is why I asked that question in my last post). But I don't feel that that's a strong enough possibility to focus all our efforts on specifically lynching Mafia.

[Furcolow]

Im a bit behind, but general reads from my catchup:
I liked chkflip
I disliked crazy
you all wagonned the wrong crazy!

vote: crazy

[LlamaFluff]

Lynching mafia today will put us in a 4-2 endgame tomorrow. Lynching a werewolf today could lead to a bunch of possibilities. Most of them are better than a 4-2 endgame. If we lynch the other mafia today, we destroy the possibility of crosskills on Night 2 AND Night 3.

If this was a vanilla game, I would agree with you. We would have two confirmed town though in a five player endgame (after no lynch). That gives town a 67% chance of lynching wolf if we just throw a dart. This also requires wolf to hit the backup mason before they kill a mason or it will be two confirmed town in three player endgame if wolf gets lynchd. Those are odds that are hard to get anywhere else. 67% chance of making it a three player endgame, and then another about 10% chance of auto-win due to mason and backup being alive in three player. Its the best path due to the setup.

The only way a werewolf lynch would be

worse

is if both scum-teams ended up killing different masons (which is why I asked that question in my last post). But I don't feel that that's a strong enough possibility to focus all our efforts on specifically lynching Mafia.

Its worse. We lynch wolf, and its 2-1-1, 3-1-1, or if we are lucky, 4-1-1. In the best case there, we will be looking at a 2-1 endgame (without game ending crosskill) and thats the same scenario where we lynch mafia today, but without the same odds of masons alive at end threat. Keeping two factions alive at this point leaves the game completely up to crosskills. We lynch town and its basically game over at this point without a double crosskill. We lynch town and bad luck will leave us at 2-2-1. Im going for the sure thing.

[Crazy]

There are 8 people alive right now. A 2-1-1 is impossible. With a werewolf lynch we get 3-1-1, 4-1-1, 4-1-0, or possibly even an instant win. And you can't say "If we lynch town today" as part of your argument - that has nothing to do with anything. What do you mean by "the sure thing," btw? Tclawren isn't confirmed mafia.

Also, if we mislynch in 3-1-1, the game isn't over. If we mislynch in 4-2, it is over.

[chkflip]

Re-reading; at uni right now, so please ask me questions if there's something you specifically want from me.

Not sure where I stand right now.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Alright, so. First off, I have a gut read on Glass as scum (either werewolf or mafia) but I need to look over the thread again before I come up with a case on him. Also the same for singer, will have to work on building a case for her.

First off though, I could get behind a llama wagon.

I didn't like TheBigLebowski, the first player in the slot. Places a random vote and answers the RQS (not scummy). Then, when someone (Crazy?) comments that TBL did not comment at all about the conversation that just happened, TBL only says he thought it was over, but does not try to rectify this by giving his comments. He seemed to know what was going no, but just decided not to comment on it at all. Then, he disappears from the game completely. Seems a lot like active lurking to me. At the end, it was likely that he didn't have the time to put into the game, but that doesn't excuse his lack of content early on.

Then llama comes in, and seems to be doing some good scum hunting. He posts a good case on park, and interestingly does not vote for park in that post. He, in the next post, votes Krazy, who calls him out on this, claiming that the park wagon "will not go anywhere". After he is called out on this, he eventually goes over to a zodiark wagon.

Later on, llama moves onto Crazy (not scummy) and after a few posts, asks Crazy:

@Crazy - If you want to do a shameless counterwagon on chk im down for it.

I find this kind of suspicious, especially when you are voting the person you want to be on the same wagon with.

Later, once the Krazy wagon is nearing a lynch, llama says:

Part of me wants to be all *blam* and hammer because I never get the chance to do something like this, but I want to read more before I do something like that, since Krazy goes in and out of looking like a good lynch.

To me, this seems like he is lampshading his eventual hammer, so when he actually does it, he doesn't look as scummy. To me, its saying "I

could

act scummy and hammer him now, and I want to, but I won't."

Then, llama does eventually hammer. Also, he tells everyone:

NO ONE POST UNTIL SCENE, catchup over night

In what way can posting be scummy? Why ask people not to post while there is time?

Krazy also brings up a pretty good point.

I love it still.

Llama: "The easiest game for scum to win is one where there's not a lot of good discussion..."

Lurkers: Hey guys, we're still kinda here, just give us a minute.

Llama: "OH GOD I HAVE TO HAMMER BEFORE THEY CAN CLEAR THEIR NAMES!"

This is something I didn't realize at the time, but hammering when there is no deadline and plenty of support does not help. It would have been better to wait for lurkers to come in, and get their take on the wagon.

@ llama

something I just saw when looking over the thread, you said I looked town to you in your first post. What's changed now, and why did you call me possibly scum in your first post toDay but not mention any reasons why?


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

also, on the point of mafia or werewolf lynch today, I don't particularly care as long as we get one. There are risks either way, but with a strong town and good scumhunting, it shouldn't matter as long as we keep lynching right. Out of curiosity I'm going to try out the possibilities, see what would happen in each scenario, but let's not get bogged down in discussion on that.

[singersigner]

V/LA Thursday through Monday

[tclawren]

Im a bit behind, but general reads from my catchup:
I liked chkflip
I disliked crazy
you all wagonned the wrong crazy!

vote: crazy

Looking back at it, and with the addition of this post, I can pretty confidently say.
VOTE: Furcolow

If you explain exactly why you believe he is scum, then I might change my mind.

Also continued

FOS on Chk

and I'm not feeling a Llama wagon.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

forgot to

vote: llama

also, ran through all of the scenarios:

if we lynch mafia today, there are 2 ways we can lose, 1 way we can win (two werewolf lynches in a row).
if we lynch werewolf today, there are 24 ways we can lose, 15 ways we can win (big, complicated chart).
if we lynch town today, there are 39 ways we can lose, 9 ways to win (yet another big, complicated chart).

Statistically, there is a very slightly better chance if we lynch a werewolf today (15/39, as opposed to 13/39). If we lynch mafia, we'll have to rely more on scumhunting, if we lynch werewolf, we'll have to hope for at least one cross kill. To me, it's close enough that I don't care which way we lynch, as long as we get someone. Needless to say, if we lynch town, we'll probably need a cross kill to have a chance.

[LlamaFluff]

Holy misrep batman!

Then llama comes in, and seems to be doing some good scum hunting. He posts a good case on park, and interestingly does not vote for park in that post. He, in the next post, votes Krazy, who calls him out on this, claiming that the park wagon "will not go anywhere". After he is called out on this, he eventually goes over to a zodiark wagon.

I did vote park in my first post, so there goes the "never voted him" arguement. Every single play shutdown the park wagon quickly, which made me realize that it wasnt going to get off the ground without more content from the player. Im not going to spend the entire day repeting the same thing that eventually leaves me in a position where I have no say in where the lynch goes. Again though... you arent reading, Zodiark replaced park. So another point of yours gone.

Later on, llama moves onto Crazy (not scummy) and after a few posts, asks Crazy:

@Crazy - If you want to do a shameless counterwagon on chk im down for it.

I find this kind of suspicious, especially when you are voting the person you want to be on the same wagon with.

More not reading! I voted Krazy, not Crazy. Crazy was (and probably still is) town. Point two out the window.

Later, once the Krazy wagon is nearing a lynch, llama says:

Part of me wants to be all *blam* and hammer because I never get the chance to do something like this, but I want to read more before I do something like that, since Krazy goes in and out of looking like a good lynch.

To me, this seems like he is lampshading his eventual hammer, so when he actually does it, he doesn't look as scummy. To me, its saying "I

could

act scummy and hammer him now, and I want to, but I won't."

I wasnt sold on the vote of Krazy over chck and DRK at that point. Also a replacement was in the process of giving content I saw as interesting so wanted to see a little more out of it first.

Then, llama does eventually hammer. Also, he tells everyone:

NO ONE POST UNTIL SCENE, catchup over night

In what way can posting be scummy? Why ask people not to post while there is time?

If all the replacements do not post, scum has no idea what their reads are, and are shooting off what they think the general reads for the town is as opposed to cleaning out someone or using it as a tiebreak due to who they suspect. Makes the scum have less info for thier kills.

I love it still.

Llama: "The easiest game for scum to win is one where there's not a lot of good discussion..."

Lurkers: Hey guys, we're still kinda here, just give us a minute.

Llama: "OH GOD I HAVE TO HAMMER BEFORE THEY CAN CLEAR THEIR NAMES!"

This is something I didn't realize at the time, but hammering when there is no deadline and plenty of support does not help. It would have been better to wait for lurkers to come in, and get their take on the wagon.

I was sure Krazy would flip scum, so I laid down the vote on him and made it so the replacements (not lurkers as you say) did not have to give content for scum to base decisions off of.

@ llama

something I just saw when looking over the thread, you said I looked town to you in your first post. What's changed now, and why did you call me possibly scum in your first post toDay but not mention any reasons why?

Because you are one of only three people who work well as a partner to DRK. Its Tcl, Glass or you. Im almost positive of that. Nights and flips change reads.

There are 8 people alive right now. A 2-1-1 is impossible. With a werewolf lynch we get 3-1-1, 4-1-1, 4-1-0, or possibly even an instant win. And you can't say "If we lynch town today" as part of your argument - that has nothing to do with anything. What do you mean by "the sure thing," btw? Tclawren isn't confirmed mafia.

Also, if we mislynch in 3-1-1, the game isn't over. If we mislynch in 4-2, it is over.

A 3-1-1 or a 4-1-1 is a bad thing, as its impossible to win without two perfect lynches or a crosskill. I like the 4-2 (3-2 post mylo no lynch) because there WILL be at least one, most likely two cleared players in that setup. A correct lynch there would nearly assure the win for the town, and given that its a 2/3 chance of one I like it more then relying on hitting last mafia/last wolf. The odds support lynching mafia today, since without a crosskill, town is almost sunk.

If you could have a 3-2 with two confirmed town or a 3-1-1, what would you prefer?

Yes tcl isnt mafia, but if we actually mafia hunt, I think chances go up quite a bit.

[Crazy]

I'd rather have a 3-1-1 than a 3-2, since if we accidentally mislynch in a 3-1-1, the game's not over. The "two confirmed townies" thing is silly and not even true. We'd be guaranteed

one

confirmed townie in a 3-2, AS WELL as in a 3-1-1. The logic you're using is akin to this:

Llama: Would you rather have a burger and fries or a hot dog and fries?
Crazy: I'll take a burger.
Llama: But with a hot dog you get fries!

[Glass]

First thing: Hate the new avatar crazy D:
Now...
SSS, not all the events you said (36 or whatever) have the same probability of happening, but arguing this is still a moot point. Beggars can't be choosers. We will lynch scum without prejudice. If you personally want to put your focus on mafia/wolves go ahead, but I personally will be looking for both mafia and wolves.

My attention right now is on llama. He was essentially calling park out as obv scum and then totally released all pressure and stopped attacking a few posts later. Once DRK comes in llama really looses up. A slot does not suddenly go from scum to town, thus not commenting on anything that DRK is strange.

VOTE: llama(at L-2)

Tclaw is an interesting case, and I want to ask him a question:

Looking back at it, and with the addition of this post, I can pretty confidently say.
VOTE: Furcolow

Looking back at what exactly? furcolow made zero contribution prior to this post. I will have you know that I have played with furcolow before and his play here (so far) has been pretty similar.

I liked chkflip
I disliked crazy

Elaborate?

Going to reread llama + tclaw.

[Glass]

If all the replacements do not post, scum has no idea what their reads are, and are shooting off what they think the general reads for the town is as opposed to cleaning out someone or using it as a tiebreak due to who they suspect. Makes the scum have less info for thier kills.

This is the worst argument ever. By that logic we should hammer as quickly and recklessly as possible so that the mafia/wolves don't have reads. Scum not having reads means that town won't have reads either.

[LlamaFluff]

I'd rather have a 3-1-1 than a 3-2, since if we accidentally mislynch in a 3-1-1, the game's not over. The "two confirmed townies" thing is silly and not even true. We'd be guaranteed

one

confirmed townie in a 3-2, AS WELL as in a 3-1-1.

If we mislynch in a 3-1-1 it brings us to 2-1-1, where we NEED a double crosskill to win. Chances of that happening are very low.

If we lynch mafia today, we go to a 4-2 tomorrow with about a 50-50 chance of both masons alive. Worst possible case we lose two straight to get to a 3:2 with only one confirmed town, but that would require scum to hit mason twice in a row. I really cant see how going for a 3-1-1 is better. Its better to get mafia lynched, and get an endgame where the first wolf lynch leads to the second one quickly, where there is at least a 50% chance of entering the endgame with a 40% chance of lynching at RANDOM.

If all the replacements do not post, scum has no idea what their reads are, and are shooting off what they think the general reads for the town is as opposed to cleaning out someone or using it as a tiebreak due to who they suspect. Makes the scum have less info for thier kills.

This is the worst argument ever. By that logic we should hammer as quickly and recklessly as possible so that the mafia/wolves don't have reads. Scum not having reads means that town won't have reads either.

If you arent sure on a read, then yes its a bad move. If you have a scum read on them though, its a great move since the lynch will likely end up there anyway, and gives scum far less to work with.

[Crazy]

*sigh* This is going to be the last time I'm going to talk about this crap, since it's totally going nowhere.

Llama, please stop using the number of confirmed townies in your argument! Both mafia and werewolves are equally capable of killing masons! We're just as likely to go into a 3-1-1 with 2 confirmed townies as we are to go into a 3-2 with 2 confirmed townies. Note my burger and fries reference. That's what you're doing.

A mafia lynch will lead us into a 4-2, with a NL after that leading us to 3-2. That is the ONLY thing that can happen.

A werewolf lynch could end up leading into a bunch of possibilities. The absolute worse is a 3-1-1, which is STILL better than a 3-2 due to the chance of a Prisoner's Dilemma scenario. In addition, there are better things that could happen after a werewolf lynch. If one scum team kills the other, we have a 4-1. If both scum teams kill each other, we get an instant win. None of that is possible if we go mafia-hunting today.

At the very worst, a werewolf lynch is approximately equal to a mafia lynch. At the best, it is much much better.

@Other people

- Is Llama a likely werewolf due to his insistence that we go mafia-hunting today?

***

And yeah, I didn't like that avatar very much either, Glass. I changed it back.

[tclawren]

Tclaw is an interesting case, and I want to ask him a question:

Looking back at it, and with the addition of this post, I can pretty confidently say.
VOTE: Furcolow

Looking back at what exactly? furcolow made zero contribution prior to this post. I will have you know that I have played with furcolow before and his play here (so far) has been pretty similar.

Oh dear, that was vague of me. Sorry. I meant rereading aaah's posts. Aaah's posts seem sooooooo scummy to me right now. And Furculow desn't help hiimself much with a vote on one of my town reads. So he needs to explain himself. Now.

@Other people - Is Llama a likely werewolf due to his insistence that we go mafia-hunting today?

I have a strong feeling that this arguing is just a difference in opinion and theory and nothing more. In fact the reasons of the people jumping on this wagon are so ridiculous and unfounded I think it would be better to look at one of them, i.e. Smashbro and Glass, for potential scum.