Open 291 Frenenemies (+ other guy) - Game over: Wolves win!

[Glass]

In fact the reasons of the people jumping on this wagon are so ridiculous and unfounded I think it would be better to look at one of them, i.e. Smashbro and Glass, for potential scum.

Simply love this. Tclaw just buddied llama and at the same time told everyone "what we should be doing" instead of taking any initiative to do it himself.

My reason for attacking llama is unfounded and/or ridiculous? O:
I would love to hear more.

Is Llama a likely werewolf due to his insistence that we go mafia-hunting today?

I don't think it makes him any more likely to be a werewolf than mafia personally.

If you arent sure on a read, then yes its a bad move. If you have a scum read on them though, its a great move since the lynch will likely end up there anyway, and gives scum far less to work with.

-twitch- It also gives town far less to work with the following day.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Just checking in really quick, but first off, sorry bout the first couple points llama. I looked back, and you're right. for some reason I could have sworn you voted Crazy with a C at one point, but guess not. I still don't mind leaving my vote on you. I don't particularly like the hammer, or your post leading up to it. Or telling people not to talk after the vote. Sure, it gives scum more to go on, but I think that if they wanted to go for someone who thinks they are scum, they would go for the people who are most likely to start something up, i.e. people who are around more and post more. So I don't think that would matter. I'd still like to keep some pressure on you, especially if I have no other top candidate.

Crazy, I don't know if it makes him more likely werewolf, but it's possible. It's not enough for me to definitely say he's more likely werewolf than mafia though.

Finally, Crazy and llama and anyone else , I really don't care much about the probability of everything, can we focus on actual hunting please?

[LlamaFluff]

Ok... so I may be drunk on a wednesday night, but isnt that what college is all about?

Im just frustrated right now.

I got Crazy voting me because I think that a mafia lynch is by far the right lynch, so I have to be wolf since he disagres with me about this, and that is where that case ends. Hell if I was any type of scum I would be pushing the same lynch right there since it IS the right lynch on my theory of the game.

I got Glass voting me for something I really am not too sure on. It seems that when I hammered I asked people to stop talking which IS the correct thing to do.

Then I got SSS voting me "for lack of a better pick", and for not liking my hammer of the player he was voting for the entire game. I would hammer Krazy again in the same situation, it made the scum kills based on far less information then if I waited for all the players to catch up and then vote, where Krazy still would have been the likely kill.

Just grah at this point, I feel like im just being throttled because people disagree with my theory over what the correct moves on this setup are more then anything else.

[Crazy]

Seeing how you stuck by the idea that a mafia lynch is better makes me think that you do sincerely believe that and that it is not indicative of your alignment. So I'll abandon that for now, and if I suspect you again, it will be for different reasons.

If you end up being a werewolf, I'll probably kill myself, though.

I probably need to examine a few things to figure out which one of you guys I should tunnel next.

[Crazy]

UNVOTE: LlamaFluff
VOTE: Glass

My case is here and a little bit here. Feel free to ignore that epic Krazy quote in my second post - the fact that it is so long and detailed is pretty much my whole point.

[tclawren]

My attention right now is on llama. He was essentially calling park out as obv scum and then totally released all pressure and stopped attacking a few posts later. Once DRK comes in llama really looses up. A slot does not suddenly go from scum to town, thus not commenting on anything that DRK is strange.

you said you wanted to hear how your case was unfounded? well here we go. That above is your entire case on Llama. He stopped attacking because no one was joining his wagon and one of his other reads had a wagon already on it. But it is clear that he still thought park was scum if you actually read his posts. As for his supsicions of DRK, I would just like to say his vote was on DRK until DRK went about his gambit, immediately after which Llama unvoted since usually gambits are a town tell.

I am totally for this wagon.
VOTE: Glass
If you can explain to me how I am wrong I might consider unvoting.

[LlamaFluff]

The move from tlc there is a little bit of a non-mafia tell I think. I can get behind what Crazy was saying early, especially since Glass works well as a pick for mafia, not only scum.

Sameless wagon ho!

unvote
vote glass

[ThAdmiral]

vote count

Crazy - 1 (Furculow)
tclawren
singersigner
Glass - 3 (Crazy, tclawren, LlamaFluff)
smashbro_of_the_SSS
LlamaFluff - 2 (smashbro_of_the_SSS, Glass)
chkflip
Furculow

Not voting - singersigner, chkflip

Glass is -2

[ThAdmiral]

@Mod

Was the back-up mason determined at the start of the game or will the role just go to a random townie that's still alive whenever one of the masons die? If it's the former, then what would happen if the back-up mason died before he became a mason? Would he be revealed as a "Back-Up Mason" or as a "Townie?"

Also, if both masons died in the same night, would the back-up mason still be notified and get a link to their QT?

The back-up mason was indeed determined at the start of the game. If the back-up mason dies they will be revealed as "Back-up Mason".

If both masons died in the same night the back-up mason would still be notified and would still get a link to the qt.

[chkflip]

I read it like Llama wasn't happy with how parkscum was doing, but felt much better about his new partner DRK. And shameless wagoning? Come on, now.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[LlamaFluff]

I read it like Llama wasn't happy with how parkscum was doing, but felt much better about his new partner DRK. And shameless wagoning? Come on, now.

So your arguement is that I came into the game, saw my partner getting ignored (and replaced), and immediately tried to hardcore bus him, only to decide that when he got replaced, what DRK did made him town and I jumped right off the wagon? If you think I was upset with parks play and wanted him, specifically dead, and a replacement would change my mind, why wouldnt I just wait to see who replaced first? Park read as scum, DRK came in and looked town, with the vote gambit cementing it, so I moved on.

Also yes, shameless wagon. I already said that there are only a few people that DRK works with as scum due to the interactions of park and DRK. SSS is a long shot due to a townish read I have on him but is my third pick. tlc looks kinda scummy given the quote regarding DRK, and glass is scummier independently of DRKs flip, and is a very viable option for a partner, so its a good wagon. I would expect a mafia flip from Glass, but a wolf flip would not surprise me too much, same basic reasoning for tlc, but him attacking another in the small pool of people I think actually work as mafia is a bit of a town tell (more not-mafia then not-wolf, but its an overall town), since he is not worried about getting PoE'd like he would probably be as mafia.

[Glass]

Ooh, flashwagon. Neat.

I got Glass voting me for something I really am not too sure on. It seems that when I hammered I asked people to stop talking which IS the correct thing to do.

lolwtf? Although I did mention your hammer it is not my main reason for voting you, and I never said anything about you asking people to stop talking. Try again.

with the vote gambit cementing it, so I moved on.

Maybe if this was a 1-scumteam game this would justify it, but it has already been clearly established that scum are looking for the other scum team. How exactly does this gambit make DRK oh so townie?

He stopped attacking because no one was joining his wagon and one of his other reads had a wagon already on it. But it is clear that he still thought park was scum if you actually read his posts. As for his supsicions of DRK, I would just like to say his vote was on DRK until DRK went about his gambit, immediately after which Llama unvoted since usually gambits are a town tell.

See above for gambit.
I never said that llama did not think that park was scum.
Even though he was voting for DRK for a bit after he replaced in he put absolutely NO pressure on him.

I read it like Llama wasn't happy with how parkscum was doing, but felt much better about his new partner DRK.

I think that distancing is far more likely than llama actually trying to bus.

[tclawren]

Maybe if this was a 1-scumteam game this would justify it, but it has already been clearly established that scum are looking for the other scum team. How exactly does this gambit make DRK oh so townie?

I understand where you are coming from with this. What you are saying is technically true, but people can sometimes forget that there is two scum teams, so I can't hold the unvote against him here. Also, I personally think that Llama was already considering voting for Krazy when DRK came in.

However, since you've explained yourself a bit more (I still disagree with you, btw) and the speed of this wagon, I will move my vote.

UNVOTE: Glass
VOTE: SSS

@SSS

Do you think that your reasoning (the hammer and telling people not to talk) is enough to justify a vote on llama by itself? Do you have anything else on Llama that happened prior to what you posted?

@Llama

What are your personal reasons for voting for glass? What do you find scummy about his play? Honestly right now, your wagon vote is looking more shady than his.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama

What are your personal reasons for voting for glass? What do you find scummy about his play? Honestly right now, your wagon vote is looking more shady than his.

Because I think Crazy was right, im essentially just sheeping his case, but its because I agree with it. The reaction from Glass to what Krazy did really doesnt make that much sense, it seems like he just kept his head down trying to get the lynch down. When you combine that with him being clear and away a top two chance to be a partner to DRK, I want to see what a wagon there does.

@Glass - A interesting part of dual scumteams is that scum actually have to watch out for crosskills. In games with more then one anti-town faction and I get scum, I die a majority of the time from being killed by other scum. I think the reaction from DRK made him town because scum would have to risk the "wow this guy is town" thought from the other scumgroup. Gambits that make you look town are far more likely from town in these games due to crosskill threats.

[Glass]

it seems like he just kept his head down trying to get the lynch down. When you combine that with him being clear and away a top two chance to be a partner to DRK, I want to see what a wagon there does.

So I went out of my way to get my head up to keep my head down? Also, care to explain your analysis of why I make a good DRK scumpartner?

Also, you have yet to respond to anything I have directed at you llama. What's up?

[Furcolow]

Im a bit behind, but general reads from my catchup:
I liked chkflip
I disliked crazy
you all wagonned the wrong crazy!

vote: crazy

Looking back at it, and with the addition of this post, I can pretty confidently say.
VOTE: Furcolow

If you explain exactly why you believe he is scum, then I might change my mind.

Also continued

FOS on Chk

and I'm not feeling a Llama wagon.

I read the game before I had replaced in
It was gut. I viewed the wrong crazy being waggonned. I was dissapointed in losing a town read. I don't like your vote on me, but at the same time I don't really give a fuck because you have provided no reasoning with it. What are you "looking back on"... the person I replaced? They seemed town to me, and I'm privy to the fact that I was right in realizing that. It sucks that they had a little... episode... with the site, but I can't do shit about that.

Have you seen any connections to our flipped scum, DRK?
I don't believe it is possible.
If you're saying I'm a werewolf, what's the team?
I'll tell you now your vote is wasted, worthless, and is misplaced unless you are scum.

I'd rather have a 3-1-1 than a 3-2, since if we accidentally mislynch in a 3-1-1, the game's not over. The "two confirmed townies" thing is silly and not even true. We'd be guaranteed

one

confirmed townie in a 3-2, AS WELL as in a 3-1-1. The logic you're using is akin to this:

Llama: Would you rather have a burger and fries or a hot dog and fries?
Crazy: I'll take a burger.
Llama: But with a hot dog you get fries!

Why do you not address my vote here?
I have a solid read on you as scum commandeering the town... scumandeering if you will. You are trying to boss everyone to have things your way - well, I'll tell you right now, this isn't going to work with me here. You will get in line or I will put you in line. I am very good at analyzing scenarios, so I know when someone is hiding behind that, which you are, hence why you're not addressing a few posts above where I voted you. Nice hiding, but it's not going to work. Sorry, bro.

First thing: Hate the new avatar crazy D:
Now...
SSS, not all the events you said (36 or whatever) have the same probability of happening, but arguing this is still a moot point. Beggars can't be choosers. We will lynch scum without prejudice. If you personally want to put your focus on mafia/wolves go ahead, but I personally will be looking for both mafia and wolves.

My attention right now is on llama. He was essentially calling park out as obv scum and then totally released all pressure and stopped attacking a few posts later. Once DRK comes in llama really looses up. A slot does not suddenly go from scum to town, thus not commenting on anything that DRK is strange.

VOTE: llama(at L-2)

Tclaw is an interesting case, and I want to ask him a question:

Looking back at it, and with the addition of this post, I can pretty confidently say.
VOTE: Furcolow

Looking back at what exactly? furcolow made zero contribution prior to this post. I will have you know that I have played with furcolow before and his play here (so far) has been pretty similar.

I didn't believe I had gotten my townie or mason role PM, but I had, so I didn't even know to be following this game. That is why I hadn't posted. I would definitely have been active, so that is my excuse for that, and my first post confirms it. I missed my role PM because it was tucked a few lines down under a paragraph TheAd had wrote to me about the situation revolving around how he was desperate to find players... I'm glad he found a few good ones.

Believe it or not, to further my claim, I actually have a lot of catching up to do. I'm trying to stem the tide by responding to things in the now, but I have pages to catch up on, and it doesn't look like I'm going to be able to do it tonight because my girlfriend is staying with me and I just stopped in for a moment.

If all the replacements do not post, scum has no idea what their reads are, and are shooting off what they think the general reads for the town is as opposed to cleaning out someone or using it as a tiebreak due to who they suspect. Makes the scum have less info for thier kills.

This is the worst argument ever. By that logic we should hammer as quickly and recklessly as possible so that the mafia/wolves don't have reads. Scum not having reads means that town won't have reads either.

I disliked this post too, but for different reasons than you. I don't dip into scum thinking as town past my reads.

*sigh* This is going to be the last time I'm going to talk about this crap, since it's totally going nowhere.

Llama, please stop using the number of confirmed townies in your argument! Both mafia and werewolves are equally capable of killing masons! We're just as likely to go into a 3-1-1 with 2 confirmed townies as we are to go into a 3-2 with 2 confirmed townies. Note my burger and fries reference. That's what you're doing.

A mafia lynch will lead us into a 4-2, with a NL after that leading us to 3-2. That is the ONLY thing that can happen.

A werewolf lynch could end up leading into a bunch of possibilities. The absolute worse is a 3-1-1, which is STILL better than a 3-2 due to the chance of a Prisoner's Dilemma scenario. In addition, there are better things that could happen after a werewolf lynch. If one scum team kills the other, we have a 4-1. If both scum teams kill each other, we get an instant win. None of that is possible if we go mafia-hunting today.

At the very worst, a werewolf lynch is approximately equal to a mafia lynch. At the best, it is much much better.

@Other people

- Is Llama a likely werewolf due to his insistence that we go mafia-hunting today?

***

And yeah, I didn't like that avatar very much either, Glass. I changed it back.

Notice this post?
werewolf is mentioned how many times?
he is dipping into "scumhunting" as mafia, and focusing only on werewolves.
I'm going to read him specifically when I'm catching up to see if he has any affiliation with DRK that will pop out at me as an associative tell.

As per your question...
Yes.
It's the same way you're a mafia because you're going werewolf hunting.

Tclaw is an interesting case, and I want to ask him a question:

Looking back at it, and with the addition of this post, I can pretty confidently say.
VOTE: Furcolow

Looking back at what exactly? furcolow made zero contribution prior to this post. I will have you know that I have played with furcolow before and his play here (so far) has been pretty similar.

Oh dear, that was vague of me. Sorry. I meant rereading aaah's posts. Aaah's posts seem sooooooo scummy to me right now. And Furculow desn't help hiimself much with a vote on one of my town reads. So he needs to explain himself. Now.

@Other people - Is Llama a likely werewolf due to his insistence that we go mafia-hunting today?

I have a strong feeling that this arguing is just a difference in opinion and theory and nothing more. In fact the reasons of the people jumping on this wagon are so ridiculous and unfounded I think it would be better to look at one of them, i.e. Smashbro and Glass, for potential scum.

Token, I don't have to explain myself until I catch up. It's gut, and he's going "werewolf hunting" as mafia. Your town read is because he SEEMS town... he's trying to lead the town as scum.

Just checking in really quick, but first off, sorry bout the first couple points llama. I looked back, and you're right. for some reason I could have sworn you voted Crazy with a C at one point, but guess not. I still don't mind leaving my vote on you. I don't particularly like the hammer, or your post leading up to it. Or telling people not to talk after the vote. Sure, it gives scum more to go on, but I think that if they wanted to go for someone who thinks they are scum, they would go for the people who are most likely to start something up, i.e. people who are around more and post more. So I don't think that would matter. I'd still like to keep some pressure on you, especially if I have no other top candidate.

Crazy, I don't know if it makes him more likely werewolf, but it's possible. It's not enough for me to definitely say he's more likely werewolf than mafia though.

Finally, Crazy and llama and anyone else , I really don't care much about the probability of everything, can we focus on actual hunting please?

I like this point... a lot. I didn't like your post until the bolded ending, but I like that. I hit on this already in this post.

Crazy is using numbers to hide behind. I analyze numbers as town all the time, and I quickly move on after people agree or disagree with me. He's not doing this, even going so far as to not reply to a vote on him.


I view the tclawren following and later jump as

town

.

Crazy not believing he can wagon LF switches and tries to lead again.. further indication he is scumandeering and trying to lead a witch hunt on a 3rd faction.. or should I say a werewolf hunt...

idc either way
my vote not only stands, it stays

[Furcolow]

ack mod please fix my quote tags in the glass post.
thanks ad

[tclawren]

@Furcolow Though I disagree with your conclusion I understand the reasoning behind your stance. I also apologize for sounding so pushy in my last post. now some quick questions. Please answer these when you get the time.

"I view the tclawren following and later jump as town." Explain exactly what this meant. I think I know what it means but I want to be sure.

Do you find anyone else to scummy at this point? If so, why? (I know you mentioned Llama briefly, but I just want to make sure)

How steadfast are you to that vote? (you did say that it was staying there) Are you willing to change wagons at a later date?

Thanks

[Furcolow]

You followed a town read, then you stepped back and thought... hmmm... maybe I'm following someone I shouldn't be, this wagon took off WAY too fast... it just didn't feel right... so you switched to SS whose post was largely scummy until the closing I agreed with.

The thing is, someone scumhunting here doesn't mean shit. It's very easy to scumhunt with 2 scum parties as scum.

I need to catch up properly. I would be happy with LF/Glass/SSS wagons actually and would hammer them near deadline.

I'm not that steadfast, as per the above line, but I am deadset on him being scum. It just doesn't seem like I have the support yet, we'll see.

[Furcolow]

insert ; for that last comma, i believe

[Crazy]

Quick defense from me. I don't want to spend a whole lot of time on this, because the fact that you actually made a case against me gives me a town feeling about you. I think scum would search out one of the numerous easier wagons, or if they genuinely thought I was scum, just NK me.

-I didn't address your vote for me originally because I was waiting for your case. I assumed you were going to explain yourself later. If you hadn't, I would have voted you after a certain point.

-If I ignore certain posts, it's because I don't care about them at that time, and I don't want my posts cluttered with useless information that will go nowhere. If there's something specific you want me to address, point it out to me.

-If you think I'm leading the town, that's your perception, but I don't see how that has anything to do with my alignment.

-I wasn't really "werewolf hunting" so much as objecting to Llama's "mafia hunting." I really have no idea how "werewolf hunting" would be much different from general scum-hunting, anyway, since no werewolves have flipped yet.

-I wasn't attempting to "hide behind numbers." If you noticed in one of my recent posts, I even addressed that the debate between Llama and me was going nowhere. I asked other people to comment just to gain some possible insight, but then I ended it. My overall opinion of the thing now is that Llama is slightly more pro-town for it. I still disagree with him, but I have a hunch that scum would have backed down more in that situation in fear of looking horribly scummy, and Llama didn't back down. My main goal in that argument wasn't merely to debate theory, but to better deduce Llama's alignment. As for the lynch today, I'm satisfied if we lynch

either

type of scum.

[Glass]

I think scum would search out one of the numerous easier wagons.

I would be happy with LF/Glass/SSS wagons actually and would hammer them near deadline.

I know that something is wrong here and I just can't quite put my finger on it...

[Crazy]

Meh... he's not really "searching those out" though; his priority was on me.

***

@chk - Why did you assume that Llama was a mafia instead of a werewolf? And why didn't you comment at all on the Glass wagon? Put that together with your interactions with Glass on Day 1 and something definitely seems "odd" here.

(Sorry, couldn't resist. )

[Glass]

A interesting part of dual scumteams is that scum actually have to watch out for crosskills.

Oh, I guess I missed this. So you responded to ONE thing I directed at you, completely ignoring everything else.

[Crazy]

Glass, what is your opinion of chkflip? Do you think he will chkfliptown or will he chkflipscum?

Another terrible pun that I had to use, I'm sorry. It's way past my bedtime.