Open 272 - Near-Vanilla (Over!)

[farside22]

Hey I want to go back and reread the past 3 pages. I will have more response on a few things hopefully tonight.
Looker did you ever answer my question about why you were concerned about being NK?

[AntB]

@Farside
I ain't done much since D1 but I've done a hell load more than andrew ¬_¬

[Archer]

@archer, what conclusions can i draw from farside/antb lynch

well firstly, i have been sus of antb since foreveer and also we dont out another vt/ or the doc. etc

That doesnt tell me what conclusions you can make, just your reasons for wanting an AntB lynch

@Looker, what I currently understand is that you voted Egg to survive the night. Is that correct, is there anything I'm missing?

[Looker]

• farside22
  • Just didn't want it to happen.
• Archer
  • Nah, I don't think so.

[farside22]

@Looker: Please explain why or what reason you find Archer, Broken and Bella scummy.
Also I know many players who use gut reads and things they see in the game that they read as town, why are you questioning town reads from Magua and not others like Egg who made such statements?

Asking me who I found scummy yesterday has no bearing on my interests today, especially when you mislynched one of the players in question.

I really don't like this. You didn't respond to the game yesterday it looks scummy when you have no opinion. For example do you think I'm scum based on what was said? Since Consp flipped town and I know I'm town who was scum on the wagon if there was one and why?

"Another of my townreads -- that's you -- is active lurking so hard it hurts."

* Admirable. Borders on buddying but nothing less than expected.

Wait don't you have a scum read on Bella? This is very inconsistent from just a page ago.

Also your reply to my question is not satisfactory. You said you were concerned. You have played enough mafia that if you were town you would have an idea that if you are suspicious to the town the mafia tend to keep you alive. If your scum you have no concern.

[andrew94]

@archer, what do you mean what conclusions. we get his flip

[Magua]

Can you tell me why you have a town read on AntB. I get Egg's point and it's the only reason I'm not perusing this today more then anything.
What about Archer?

AntB's is two parts:
1) Meta from my play with him in Fast Food mafia. His town meta seems to be "blindly fixate on whoever is attacking him," which he is hewing to quite closely here.
2) Getting to L-1 D2 and sticking to his VT claim. As scum, that'd take balls of steel, and I don't see AntB as being able to pull that off.

Archer is two different parts:
1) Process of elimination.
2) A reticence to vote and take stands.

Magua, I thought a replacement got the same role PM as the replaced player had.

There's no use in pressuring a slot that's getting replaced. And I am against lynching the slot until it's replaced, to get a claim if nothing else. So until that happens, the votes are better elsewhere.

sao magnua has 3 townreads?

Four townreads if you call Egg a townread. I also have four scumreads. What part of this is a problem?

Magua's refusal to respond to Looker's points against him doesn't exactly testify to his towniness.

Here's my defense. Ready? Looker says I was wrong on Conspiracy. Plot twist: I was. There. Did I miss any other part of his case? Apparently, in Looker-land, voting the confirmed town is a much better option than actually trying to get scum lynched. I disagree. End of defense.

magua, if I flip town, would you be able to make any deductions about who the scum are?

From what's happened so far? No, probably not.

Finally:
UNVOTE: Looker
VOTE: Archer

[Looker]

@Looker: Please explain why or what reason you find Archer, Broken and Bella scummy.
Also I know many players who use gut reads and things they see in the game that they read as town, why are you questioning town reads from Magua and not others like Egg who made such statements?

Asking me who I found scummy yesterday has no bearing on my interests today, especially when you mislynched one of the players in question.

I really don't like this. You didn't respond to the game yesterday it looks scummy when you have no opinion. For example do you think I'm scum based on what was said? Since Consp flipped town and I know I'm town who was scum on the wagon if there was one and why?

"Another of my townreads -- that's you -- is active lurking so hard it hurts."

* Admirable. Borders on buddying but nothing less than expected.

Wait don't you have a scum read on Bella? This is very inconsistent from just a page ago.

Also your reply to my question is not satisfactory. You said you were concerned. You have played enough mafia that if you were town you would have an idea that if you are suspicious to the town the mafia tend to keep you alive. If your scum you have no concern.

• I don't find them scummy; you're reading the list wrong. Also, your second question doesn't make sense - Magua was talking about me.
  
• I do have an opinion about yesterday; you telling me that you're town isn't an argument; and asking me why someone's scum isn't even a real question, it's busywork, Mom.
  
• Also, this "unsatisfactory" shit has got to stop. If I've answered a question, it's answered. If you don't like it, that's what your vote is for. I'm not about to answer the same question five times with seven different responses.
  
• RE:Your analysis of my mafia experience - What are you talking about/gettin' at/why are you saying this?

---

• "That doesn't explain anything. If your behind say hey I'm behind and will try and get a read. Not hey let me vote for the player that is the claimed PR."
  • I wasn't about to read anytime soon and I didn't want to die. It's not that hard to vote Egg.
• "Why would you fear a NK when people suspect you?"
  • It depends on whether or not this question came before I
    made
    them suspect me.
• Your
  vote
  • Nice. What was it for-? Nah, don't tell me, I don't care.

---

• I don't know if I'm going to have time for this game. Be back whenever I can.

[farside22]

• Magua
  • Yes. You sound surprised.
  • At the moment, either Bella, brokenscraps, or Archer. I also find it noteworthy you wrote off my "possible" (personal?) opinion the moment I voted Egg.
• andrew94
  • Yes.

Okay I missed the OR in your list but this means you find one of the 3 scummy and I wanted points on why for each of them, which I noticed you completely decided not to post reason's and instead use I didn't say X pout shit reasons.

[*]Magua alluding to players being town is unnecessarily aggressive and off-base as well. Why keep saying that someone is town when you have no proof.

Again I ask why is this a scum tell when players do this throughout MS?

And finally you didn't answer if you thought I was scum in that "statement" and consp did flip town so you should have reads on people on that wagon right?

Wrong!

Magua: Why are you voting Archer? I don't see reason or an explanation there.

[farside22]

RE:Your analysis of my mafia experience - What are you talking about/gettin' at/why are you saying this?

Your "concern" of a NK looks fake as hell.

[inHimshallibe]

We have a replacement! Also, I just got a raise! Sorry for being away all day, important things to attend to...

[inHimshallibe]

Regfan replaces brokenscraps. Thanks, Regfan!!!

[Regfan]

Hey everyone, I've replaced brokenscraps. I've skimmed the game before replacing in so I have a fair idea of what's occured but I'll do a detailed read sometime today. Just some things I want to point out for discussion purposes before I re-read.

1) How has Magua not been policy lynched for being an awful player yet?

1) With the remaining roles being Doctor/JK/5 VT's/2 Mafia Goons does anyone think that Doctor/JK claiming PR today would be beneficial? If mafia don't counter-claim PR, then we have two clears and two less people to suspect/work around and if mafia do claim PR we just get them to fully claim for a direct cc. Doing it this way we have 2 ML's, with 7 unclears and the possibilty that mafia won't be able to kill a PR, as if they're on each other mafia only have a 50% chance to kill succesfully. On top of this, mafia shooting them again after an unsucessful kill means that another protect/nokill has another 50% likelyhood of occuring. This means that mafia know that if they shoot between doc/JK unsucessfully twice in a row which has a 25% chance of occuring then we attain another ML with two clears still alive.

2) Can everyone summarize into one post who their current town-reads and scum-reads are and why?

3) As much as I know night-kill speculation is frowned upon on this site, can you all list why you think lord_hur bit the bullet?

[andrew94]

to your number 1) i dont get it... wouldnt the mafia just aim the doctor?

also @antb, more people think im town then you are town. so.. die scum die

[Regfan]

I'm mid-way through Day 2 at the moment, page 23 I believe. I'm going to state my reads as of then even though they're highly likely to chance between now and then.

Egg is un cc'ed JK, thus clear.

Andrew

: Lack of content but I do have a town read on him due to the following posts: #65, #90, #214, #318 and#368 where his interaction with Batt makes them seem unlikely to be partners. So overall I'm

leaning towards heavy town for him.

AntB:

Throws mixed tells, has signs of early overdefensivenss however some slight town-tells from him as well, I certaintly don't agree with a lot of what he's said but I can see how he would get to some of those conclusions. As for his earlier posts: Post #60 screams of overdefensiveness. Post #69 seems like frantic covering up. Post #80 is far better then previous ones. Post #96 reads odd, 'I would have to be proven wrong first' doesn't seem right. Post #103 makes me doubt he's mafia a bit. Overall I currently I have a

null-read on him.

Shotty/Bella:

Shottys Post #249 seems like a geninue town-tell. Bella replaces him and began posting highly logical content, her play was slightly reserved but from what I've read that fits with her town meta. Post #294 shows a highly logical point. Post #320 by Jesse makes me feel more comfortable by this Bella slot. So does Post #359.

Leaning towards Bella being town.

David/Magua:

Davids, intial posts seem productive, though he seeemed to have a massive obsession with bringing Jesse into it without doing/saying any extreme reason as to why Jesse is mafia. Evident in which posts: Post #308 and Post #503, agree with Lord seems like a town-slip here. I haven't read anything that Magua has added himself yet as of where I'm up to

I'd lean town for David.

Farside22:

Seems to be fencesitting a lot, attempting to prove cases via meta however never really pushing a lynch. Has a high reliance on meta however I haven't seen it be effective at all in this game, in fact her 'meta' led her of a mafia lynch D1. As for her early posts: Post #36 doesn't sit well with me, seems like an attempt to fake town-tell/push towards Nacho without actually stating you suspect him. Post #54 same as above. Post #72 is just filler. Post #114 is much better but actually doesn't add much to the game. Post #142 Fencesitting. Post #163 More fencesitting, no real action taken in this and previous posts. Post #169 shows an attempt to scumhunt but i'm curious as to why Farside checked Drmys games not AntB's given the conversation going on. Post #298 is horseshit. Post #328, first vote on Jesse, questions him while doing it but quickly unvotes afterwards. Overall Farsides my biggest scumread in this game by far, though I need to catch up with the rest of D2/D3 before I consider placing a vote.

Leaning mafia.

Archer

is someone whose posts read as scum to me yet overall re-reading them I don't have the biggest scumread on him. The few things I have noted from his posts though are: Post #79 makes me fairly confident he's not mafia with AntB, so if AntB flips mafia then Archers town, same vice-versa. Post #136 sets of alarm bells, will re-read into it as does #138. Post #155 of Jesse leads me to think Archer is mafia too. Post #177 alarm bells again. Post #192 self-recognition tell. Post #203, decent post need to re-read it later. Post #222 Archer jumps onto things that were mentioned and settled far earlier. Overall,

leaning scum on Archer.

Looker,

wow. I've gone through this entire game thus far without seeing any notable post by him that leads me to think he's town or mafia, going to have to read into him later. As for now,

null read on him.

Cut by Andrew: Andrew, because doctor/JK would random protect/save the other person. Thus if mafia shoot at the doctor there's a 50% chance the JK has him saved and no kill will occur.

[andrew94]

but then if the jk saves the doctor, the doctor is roleblocked..

[Regfan]

Clearly you don't understand it Andrew so I'll explain it in a different way. Say JK random saves between the doctor and elsewhere while the doctor always stays on the JK.

Therefore there's 2 options the JK can take, lets assume option 1 is JK saving doctor and Option 2 is LK not saving doctor.

Option 1:
If the JK random saves the doctor. Doctors powers no longer work, but if mafia shoot at the doctor no one dies. 50% chance of occuring.
If the JK random saves the doctor. Doctors powers no longer work, but if mafia shoot the LK, the LK dies. 50% chance of that occuring.

Option 2:
If the JK random saves anyone but the doctor. The doctors powers do work, if mafia shoot the doctor, the doctor dies. 50% chance of occuring.
If the JK random saves anyone but the doctor. The docots powers do work, it mafia shoot the LK, no one dies. 50% chance of occuring.

[andrew94]

when you say LK means JK right?

also, NK's are not random

[Regfan]

Sorry I do mean JK instead of LK, and you're missing the point. I never said they're random. But if mafia take a punt at whether the JK is protecting the doctor or not, they really only have a 50% chance of being correct or not.

[AntB]

Hey Andrews posting more, guess he just needed the right kick up his arse.

also @antb, more people think im town then you are town. so.. die scum die

So now I'm scum because people have more town reads on you than me...

I honestly give up on this guy...

[andrew94]

^because ur posting alot right?

[Archer]

@archer, what do you mean what conclusions. we get his flip

I mean, if AntB flips town, would you be able to get a better town/scum read on anyone else. Same questions for if AntB flips scum

Dont get magua's vote either, other than perhaps buddying up to Egg. I was hoping he'd be able to make some conclusions on my flip in which case I wouldnt mind too much being lynched. But if he is going to learn sweet nothing from it then there is no point, unless he is scum of course. Farside, you ignored this question of mine D2, so I'll ask again, what would you learn from my flip

[farside22]

@Regan: I disagree with outing the doctor. I don't care about the statistics. Keeping the doctor save as long as possible would be great, however if the JK saves the doctor the JK dies. I know it's 50/50 chance of this happening.

As for scum suspects: Looker, Archer and 3rd suspect would be you. AntB is a far fourth at this point.
Reason:
Looker is coasting, making up crap reasoning, not scum hunting and yes for fun I will throw in his meta.
Archer hasn't made a case, doesn't attempt to make a case and argues that because he was able to make a case in another game that doesn't mean squat here.
Broken: I thought town in the beginning, then he drifted off. He called me scum yesterday then backed off and jumped on the Consp wagon for no reason.
AntB: He just feels off. No case, constant arguing with Andrew. If anything way, way anti-town.

[Looker]

@Regan: I disagree with outing the doctor. I don't care about the statistics. Keeping the doctor save as long as possible would be great, however if the JK saves the doctor the JK dies. I know it's 50/50 chance of this happening.

As for scum suspects: Looker, Archer and 3rd suspect would be you. AntB is a far fourth at this point.
Reason:
Looker is coasting, making up crap reasoning, not scum hunting and yes for fun I will throw in his meta.
Archer hasn't made a case, doesn't attempt to make a case and argues that because he was able to make a case in another game that doesn't mean squat here.
Broken: I thought town in the beginning, then he drifted off. He called me scum yesterday then backed off and jumped on the Consp wagon for no reason.
AntB: He just feels off. No case, constant arguing with Andrew. If anything way, way anti-town.

• I agree with not outing the doctor.
  
• As for your reason: Why is this a scum tell when players do this throughout MS?
  • If I'm coasting, ask me questions.
  • If my reasons are crap, refute them.
  • I am.
  • Invalid; I change up every game.

---

• farside22
  • No; there are only two goons left, so everyone not within the first two rows would be clear.
  • No; I don't think you're scum.
• farside22
  • There's no legitimate reason for a concern; I just didn't want it to happen.

---

andrew94; AntB

magua; Egg

bella; Regfan; Archer

farside22

• One of the first two because they've done nothing but vote for each other the whole game.
  
• One of the second because I don't (fully) believe Egg's claim and Magua strikes me as mislynch-happy.
  
• Third tier is neutral.
  
• farside22 I believe to be town.

[farside22]

* If I'm coasting, ask me questions.
* If my reasons are crap, refute them.
* I am.
* Invalid; I change up every game.

*I have
*I do
*blank stare
*links where you act this way as town