Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[Zdenek]

I'm VT. I'd like Swiftstrike to go next.

[Swiftstrike]

one shot vigilante

I would like to see Darth Yoshi next

[DarthYoshi]

VT.

Assuming we're not asking KTS or Imp to claim (what's the point?), Neko, you're next.

[implosion]

Implosion, that argument is terribly flawed. Lylo is not an easy position for anyone, and I think the scum's position is being highly overestimated, which could be very detrimental to us if we start making too many assumptions. Nothing can be taken for granted at this point.

How is it being overestimated? Assuming 3 mafia, they only need one mislynch to win. On the other hand, the town needs 3 correct lynches in a row to win. Even more than that, we've lost the cop and the doctor without gaining anything useful from either.

Look at it this way: which makes more logical sense from a mafia point of view in this situation? Pushing on an easy mislynch or pushing on someone many people think is town? If they only need one mislynch to win, they have no need to push on difficult targets.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Is that one-shot vigilante a night one or a day one Swift? From your post I think it is a night-version but I want to make sure.

[Swiftstrike]

it's a night one.

[Setael]

Why haven't you used it yet?

[Swiftstrike]

When would you have suggested was a good time to use it, night 1 is never good. night 2 I was worried about hitting one of the masons and last night would risk putting us at a possible 3 and 3 so there has been no good time to use it. Even if there is only 2 mafia it would still have put us at an even number so we likely would have no lynched to keep odd numbers and we would be no further forward.

Before someone asks me about anything else like if I have left any breadcrumbs, I did breadcrumb it slightly in the below post but I wasn't looking to draw attention to it to much

Also, swiftstrike's vote on ice is leftover from weapons. Who are you voting, swift? You've done very little actually. You must have time to be fairly active since you just agreed to replace in, so where are you? What do you think of the current wagons? Was weapons scum whose buddies bailed him out early in the game?

At the moment I'm not voting for anyone, well at least I wasn't and then suddenly I was

Unvote

I have had time, unfortunately the read of this game was long drawn out and dominated by EMP and King's argument so I want to get a read again ignoring there posts, this means I'm not best placed to be calling all the decisions at the moment but....

wagon wise I like Saints less than MB and since we are voting to lynch on a time limit right now that will be my vote.

Vote MB53

And no, as WOMC wasn't scum and I'm not scum I guess we just have to see if I can handle weapons spot adequately.

referring to WOMC and then stating if I could handle weapons rather than stating I could handle WOMC spot it was handy his username fitted with me doing this.

Also you can see I unvoted implosion and questioned Zdenek about whether a full claim may be the best idea after he posted this
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p2871285
As he referred to there not likely being any more power roles if EMP was telling the truth, which is why I used that question as a follow up.

[Setael]

I would think that you'd use it before lylo. You say last night you were worried you'd put us at 3v3 but I don't understand why you thought it more likely you'd hit town. Didn't you have any scum reads strong enough to try to take one of them out last night?

[neko2086]

Sorry I can't post more at the moment, but VT. Is that everyone?

[DarthYoshi]

Hi everyone, I'm going to be V/LA until late Saturday/early Sunday. Sorry, I know that it's a bad time in the game. I'll catch up when I return.

[Swiftstrike]

I would think that you'd use it before lylo. You say last night you were worried you'd put us at 3v3 but I don't understand why you thought it more likely you'd hit town. Didn't you have any scum reads strong enough to try to take one of them out last night?

I glad you said that it wasn't a bad time to use it, because while I can't quote pm's from the mod nothing say that I can't quote the ones to them.

Well it's shit or bust time, although my thoughts go to the fact that I'm going to numerically disadvantage the town by shooting, it cant be any worse than try to lynch scum with only 4 town alive at this stage. At the very least if I'm wrong this should case the scum to be a little bit cautions in the next day phase wondering if they can risk taking a stand against a town vote 3 on 3 so I will

Shoot implosion

reasoning he is the most likely lynch next day phase and this at least widens the field for that and hopefully I hit scum that scum where trying not to bus.

However I was roleblocked last night.

[Setael]

Why did you wait to tell us this until I called you out for not having used it yet?

And if you did try to use it last night, why did you say this:

When would you have suggested was a good time to use it, night 1 is never good. night 2 I was worried about hitting one of the masons and last night would risk putting us at a possible 3 and 3 so there has been no good time to use it. Even if there is only 2 mafia it would still have put us at an even number so we likely would have no lynched to keep odd numbers and we would be no further forward.

You said "there has been no good time to use it" which definitely indicated that you hadn't used it. If you really did submit a kill last night, I see no reason why you wouldn't say so when you wrote this.

Also, why would you write out your reasoning to the mod like that? (Anyone else here ever done that? I would just submit a kill.) Also, is that normal to bold a kill when submitted via PM? I've never done that either.

Yeah... I don't believe you.

[DarthYoshi]

Posting this from the San Francisco airport, where I am currently stranded. (This may be more a LA weekend for me than a true V/LA, especially if my current luck holds )

Wow...I actually have to agree with Setael on this one—I’m not buying Swift’s (fake)claim either. Usually, vigs can be confirmed by shooting, this hasn’t happened, and Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

And yeah, Setael’s right that this PM looks pretty contrived. It looks like it was originally written to convince us, not the mod. This looks like an attempt to try to become cleared as town by fakeclaiming a PR that can’t be verified. This + misrepresenting your reasons for not NKing last night + what other players have said about you flying under the radar = Swift, my read on you is rapidly changing.

And, after a cursory re-read, a Swift/Imp scumpairing would explain a lot of Swift’s behavior…his original FoS of Implosion on D3 for rolefishing (rather than a vote), his attempt to subtly discredit me on the basis of my posting style while I was trying to get Implosion lynched, etc.

I'm going to take the weekend to think about it (I also want to re-read Swift/Setael interactions to see if this might be a bus/distancing attempt), but I could be amenable to a Swift lynch. And when Swift flips scum, that should be the death knell for Implosion.

[Swiftstrike]

Why did you wait to tell us this until I called you out for not having used it yet?

And if you did try to use it last night, why did you say this:

When would you have suggested was a good time to use it, night 1 is never good. night 2 I was worried about hitting one of the masons and last night would risk putting us at a possible 3 and 3 so there has been no good time to use it. Even if there is only 2 mafia it would still have put us at an even number so we likely would have no lynched to keep odd numbers and we would be no further forward.

You said "there has been no good time to use it" which definitely indicated that you hadn't used it. If you really did submit a kill last night, I see no reason why you wouldn't say so when you wrote this.

Also, why would you write out your reasoning to the mod like that? (Anyone else here ever done that? I would just submit a kill.) Also, is that normal to bold a kill when submitted via PM? I've never done that either.

Yeah... I don't believe you.

There has been no good time so I chose to use it as the best of the bad times to use it, I had no reason to tell you that except the fact it is the truth. I could have lied to say that I didn't use it but I merely chose to omit the fact in the first post and wasn't intending on lying given what happened with our doctor over lying.

As for the reasoning I play with the Mod from this game on the site where I first started playing mafia scum (you can see it in my WIKI) and yes I wanted to put down a little bit reasoning behind my thought process because of this but I do tend to add a little reason to my pm sometimes especially in clutch situations another example of this that I can give is from my first game on this site

Night action

1 I would like to talk to Lowell, Face my accuser I say!

2. I will not take this action tonight.

which I sent to the mod on the first day of that game based on the fact Lowell had accused me and given the fact it was a b*stard mod I thought my role actually allowed me to night talk, as the action was "talk" but this didn't actually turn out to be the action.

Or post 33 + 34 of this where I requested a quick topic for a serial killer role I had
http://s10.zetaboards.com/Screen_One_Fo ... /?x=90#new

[Swiftstrike]

Posting this from the San Francisco airport, where I am currently stranded. (This may be more a LA weekend for me than a true V/LA, especially if my current luck holds )

Wow...I actually have to agree with Setael on this one—I’m not buying Swift’s (fake)claim either. Usually, vigs can be confirmed by shooting, this hasn’t happened, and Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that

he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

And yeah, Setael’s right that this PM looks pretty contrived. It looks like it was originally written to convince us, not the mod. This looks like an attempt to try to become cleared as town by fakeclaiming a PR that can’t be verified. This + misrepresenting your reasons for not NKing last night + what other players have said about you flying under the radar = Swift, my read on you is rapidly changing.

And, after a cursory re-read, a Swift/Imp scumpairing would explain a lot of Swift’s behavior…his original FoS of Implosion on D3 for rolefishing (rather than a vote), his attempt to subtly discredit me on the basis of my posting style while I was trying to get Implosion lynched, etc.

I'm going to take the weekend to think about it (I also want to re-read Swift/Setael interactions to see if this might be a bus/distancing attempt), but I could be amenable to a Swift lynch. And when Swift flips scum, that should be the death knell for Implosion.

Darth could you just explain the bolded point in your post, surely if I was scum I would know there was a scum roleblocker before the flip of a cop and a doctor so could you please explain what you meant by this because it seems like you know I didn't know this information until after the cop and doctor flipped and I then got blocked.

[Swiftstrike]

EBWOP: just checked that people could check the serial killer posts and you can't without joining the forum there so here they are

What to do? What to do?

Kill Lawz
Pros
He is almost certainly mafia
I don't think there can be a Vigilante, as it would be absolute slaughter in this game and probably see it end in 4 days which doesn't give the town enough miss lynches to good lynches.
It might help me work out why he was on my profile (unlikely but this will bug me too much otherwise)

Cons
no obvious lynch target once he drops
Chaos and confusion could see a real bad lynch for me (me)
If he has got any info then he will have had time to reveal it to the others before keeling over

Kill lowest poster (or Henley in this case)
Pro
Confusion could lead to a lot more posting
Not likely to be watched or doctored.
May not be picked out as an another kill.

Cons
If I'm tracked I am having to resort to a claim.
Lower possibility of hitting mafia that trying to find one.

Pick off likely mafia accomplice
Pro
Assures Lawz lynch if successful, 2 for 1

Con
Much more likely to be watched or doctored
Bigger risk play.

Well it's decision time

I think I'm going to try find another mafia so with that please

Poison TripleA

Reasons
Was quick to jump on Lawz error but quickly looked to move it onto Mike
Then looked to move it onto Joe
Then happy to move it on to Nexus - Looking to Keep Lawz as he is adding to the game (5 posts that's adding, right)
Think Nexus late tack on post is to cover him over with the others
And it might help me work out the Lawz on profile conundrum. I would not expect Lawz to be on mafia profiles with Lawz a mafia but I don't want to be second guessing myself based on a weird set of profile looking by Lawz.
Also I can't see a doctor covering him or someone watching him where as Mike could still be covered by either despite him calling the Nexus situation wrong.

[neko2086]

Implosion, while it does only take one mislynch for us to lose, I also have the feeling that it will really only take one correct lynch to break the game open and win, and I would guess the scum feel the same way. With an entire game's worth of interactions to analyse, the scum have just as much riding on this as town and I don't think we can be sure how they're going to play this.

That said, we may be about to make that break in the game. I want to wait to comment on the point Swift bolded until Yoshi responds, and I would like others to as well.

On the rest of the developments, I was a little skeptical of the way the claim was written as well, but if there's precedence he's made this kind of a night action request before, then I suppose at least that part is believable. The part that still makes the least sense to me is what Set has pointed out, in that swift's response to "why haven't you used it yet" clearly does not leave room for a roleblock possibility--instead he gives reasons for not using it. Then later, he says he actually did, despite having given a reason not to on that occasion. I could see scum motivation for doing this--trying to appear to have done what would be best for the town--but I don't know why he should feel the need to do this if he were town. He reveals he's relieved to know Set thought last night would have been a good time to use the shot, but swift shouldn't have felt so worried about it in the first place. "Why haven't you used it yet" clearly indicates 'you should have used it by now, so why haven't you?' I don't think town would feel the need to conceal their actions like this, especially knowing we have already lynched someone for lying in this game. And, 'omitting the fact isn't lying'... maybe not directly, but I'm sure my grandmother would feel very strongly that it does.

Swift, why didn't you think it was important to mention your night action right away?

If I had to make my guess now, I would say there is a likely swift-yoshi-implosion team

[Zdenek]

Well, I think Setael should claim first because of his early vote.

I held off on commenting because we were in the middle of a mass-claim, but this strikes me as scummy. It feels like he was looking to get the person who he thinks is most likely to be a power role to claim first.

Swift's saying that he never thought using his vig was never a good idea and then saying that he tried to use it last night seems like bs to me. It feels like he came up with two ways to convince us that his claim is true and then used them both unnecessarily.

[Nexus]

Votecount the Twenty-Eighth:

Not voting: DarthYoshi, implosion, KingTwelveSixteen, neko2086, Setael, Swiftstrike, Zdenek

It takes 4 to lynch, 4 to no lynch. The deadline is 3pm (GMT) on the 1st April 2011. (That's six days)

[implosion]

I believe the vig claim, actually. The breadcrumb looks legitimate, and in my opinion the stranger a claim is the more likely it is to be true (that is, I don't see him making up this much stuff as scum). I'm a bit irked that he (claims to have) tried to shoot me last night, which (if he's real) means that the scum would probably have won the game if they didn't roleblock him. His reasons for not shooting the first couple nights also make sense.

Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

This phrasing looks scummy. You seem to imply both that Swift is town and that Swift is mafia in the same sentence; scum by saying that he can come up with a convenient excuse, and town by saying that he knows "almost certainly" that there's a scum roleblocker. It would make sense if you inserted "from town's view" before there being a scum roleblocker, but you didn't.

Implosion, while it does only take one mislynch for us to lose, I also have the feeling that it will really only take one correct lynch to break the game open and win, and I would guess the scum feel the same way. With an entire game's worth of interactions to analyse, the scum have just as much riding on this as town and I don't think we can be sure how they're going to play this.

This honestly looks like argumentation for the sake of argumentation. Assuming 3 mafia, the town has the entire game 100% riding on today's lynch. All the mafia has riding on today's lynch is a possibility of instantly winning the game, or a possibility of having two more chances of instantly winning the game. The "breaking the game open" thing frankly looks like grasping at straws to counter what I'm saying, when what I'm saying is clearly right...

So, my reads are changing. I (for some reason) really see Setael's early vote as a large towntell. I believe Swift's claim. I'd guess the scumteam is neko/Darth/one of KTS|Zdenek, at this point.

Also, why would you write out your reasoning to the mod like that? (Anyone else here ever done that? I would just submit a kill.) Also, is that normal to bold a kill when submitted via PM? I've never done that either.

I've had actions bolded in PMs I've received before. And although I've never actually done it, I could understand putting reasoning in a role PM. I also think that it would be a really weird thing for scum to make up.

[KingTwelveSixteen]

Well, I think Setael should claim first because of his early vote.

I held off on commenting because we were in the middle of a mass-claim, but this strikes me as scummy. It feels like he was looking to get the person who he thinks is most likely to be a power role to claim first.
...

What? Where did you get

that

from?

[Setael]

Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

This phrasing looks scummy. You seem to imply both that Swift is town and that Swift is mafia in the same sentence; scum by saying that he can come up with a convenient excuse, and town by saying that he knows "almost certainly" that there's a scum roleblocker. It would make sense if you inserted "from town's view" before there being a scum roleblocker, but you didn't.

This sentence really points to Darth being scum. He's giving a reason for a scum read on Swift and yet the only reason he'd say the second part of the sentence is if he knows Swift is actually town. (Since if scum, Swift would have known from D1 that there's a scum RB if there is one, it wouldn't make a difference to scum who flips what. It would only make a difference to townies.)

The mod's post made me realize that scum's best bet is actually to stall. If they can get us to just talk until deadline without coming to a consensus, they win. This is clearly what they're doing with so little activity here. It would also make it much easier to pull off a mislynch if they can stall for a few days, because votes could pile on quickly if it's really close to deadline.

Well, I think Setael should claim first because of his early vote.

I held off on commenting because we were in the middle of a mass-claim, but this strikes me as scummy. It feels like he was looking to get the person who he thinks is most likely to be a power role to claim first.
...

What? Where did you get

that

from?

Zdenek is scum. KTS is town. I'd support either a Darth or a Zdenek lynch today, but my preference is Darth. I want to wait and vote until everyone comments about Darth's statement, but if activity drops off again, I'll vote darth again tomorrow to avoid getting too close to deadline.

[Swiftstrike]

Implosion, while it does only take one mislynch for us to lose, I also have the feeling that it will really only take one correct lynch to break the game open and win, and I would guess the scum feel the same way. With an entire game's worth of interactions to analyse, the scum have just as much riding on this as town and I don't think we can be sure how they're going to play this.

That said, we may be about to make that break in the game. I want to wait to comment on the point Swift bolded until Yoshi responds, and I would like others to as well.

On the rest of the developments, I was a little skeptical of the way the claim was written as well, but if there's precedence he's made this kind of a night action request before, then I suppose at least that part is believable. The part that still makes the least sense to me is what Set has pointed out, in that swift's response to "why haven't you used it yet" clearly does not leave room for a roleblock possibility--instead he gives reasons for not using it. Then later, he says he actually did, despite having given a reason not to on that occasion. I could see scum motivation for doing this--trying to appear to have done what would be best for the town--but I don't know why he should feel the need to do this if he were town. He reveals he's relieved to know Set thought last night would have been a good time to use the shot, but swift shouldn't have felt so worried about it in the first place. "Why haven't you used it yet" clearly indicates 'you should have used it by now, so why haven't you?' I don't think town would feel the need to conceal their actions like this, especially knowing we have already lynched someone for lying in this game. And, 'omitting the fact isn't lying'... maybe not directly, but I'm sure my grandmother would feel very strongly that it does.

Swift, why didn't you think it was important to mention your night action right away?

If I had to make my guess now, I would say there is a likely swift-yoshi-implosion team

I'm not sure that I thought it best to omit, I just didn't see a reason to say it. I stick by my reasoning that it wasn't a great time to use it last night, but last night seemed the best of the times that I could use it and there wouldn't likely be a better time, as we would be going into a series of lylo's if we got today's lynch right and I hadn't used it. I suppose I was a little bit unsure that people would have seen it as the right thing to do last night which is why I was glad Setael said that I should use it last night rather than waiting and at that point given as I said I didn't want to lie and also felt that at least someone would agree the reasoning I then volunteered the info, looking back I should have probably just come straight out with it.

I would like to give Darthyoshi a chance to answer the point I raised about the bolded part I highlighted in my last post before we see any voting on Darth as he needs to be given a chance to answer but I am very wary of him right now given that post and the fact I raised before that he is playing similiar to how I play scum.

[Zdenek]

I believe the vig claim, actually. The breadcrumb looks legitimate, and in my opinion the stranger a claim is the more likely it is to be true (that is, I don't see him making up this much stuff as scum).

A vig claim is not strange and scum can bread-crumb. The problem that I have is that I think he made up two things, which are incompatible.

What? Where did you get that from?

Then please explain why Setael's early vote made you want him to claim first?

KTS is town.

Please bullet your argument for this.

I want to wait and vote until everyone comments about Darth's statement, but if activity drops off again, I'll vote darth again tomorrow to avoid getting too close to deadline.

I didn't before because of Neko's request:

I want to wait to comment on the point Swift bolded until Yoshi responds, and I would like others to as well.

and I am going to continue to wait. I'll explain why after he's responded.