Open 291 Frenenemies (+ other guy) - Game over: Wolves win!

[ThAdmiral]

ToastyToast replaces chkflip!!!

While we have been smashed with replace-outs in this game, we have been getting very good quick replacements. That makes me happy.

[ThAdmiral]

vote count

Crazy
tclawren
singersigner
Glass - 3 (Crazy, LlamaFluff, Furculow)
smashbro_of_the_SSS - 1 (tclawren)
LlamaFluff - 3 (smashbro_of_the_SSS, Glass, ToastyToast)
ToastyToast
Furculow

Not voting - singersigner

Glass is - 2
LlamaFluff is -2

[ToastyToast]

Hi everyone! Expect some input later tonight. I just have to finish some schoolwork but I've read about half already

[Glass]

1) Crazy seeming a bit more town being in-game with him than reading through the thread, and after I had picked off

Ok.... So besides how my facepalm is scummy, your entire case on me is that crazy is town. I don't get it.

[ToastyToast]

Reading this game made my head hurt.

First, its best if we hit mafia today, leaves us with masons + backup and two vanilla vs two scum. This is a great position because we have half the game clear going into mylo. Hitting wolf isnt that bad, as since we just saw crosskills happen, but suboptimal.

Mafia should shoot for wolf if we hit town today.

Llama, my scum-read on you starts with this post and continues with all those after it. I bolded the last part because its suggesting that town can rely on scum to help them out. I'm seeing Llama as wolf, as he is disguising his votes based on this post. It allows him to go back to it for clearance that he's scum hunting. BigLebowski was a lurker, and so llama likely tried to remain consistent with his play throughout day1. Now that its day 2, however, he's showing his true colors.

Here are my other reads after catching up:

Crazy: Definately town; the most active in the game, and he's hunting/questioning for every player. I also like the way he's looking at the whole "should we lynch wolf or mafia?" thing
tclawren/Jerbs: Null, but contested. I find his questions to be town, but I did not like his vote on Glass. Even if the switch to SSS came soon after, the switch came off as artificial. Oh, he also has the word claw in his name
singersigner/wizrak: I played with both (and with all the banned people) in a game. Wizrak-parknourie fight at the beginning of the game consisted of. "OH, I REALLY DON'T UNDERSTAND YOU!" which is ironic given that they were banned for PLAYING TOGETHER. It's a distancing attempt. Singer has been V/LA, and I don't know what to think of her.
Glass: Don't understand this wagon. Consists of a counter from Crazy based on "lack of evidence" for llama, then llama quickly hops on it, with others following.
smashbro_of_the_SSS: Active lurker, but his recent post provided some good info. null
ToastyToast/chkflip: Sexy
Furculow/aaah400: ugh major lurking.

So, I think: llama is wolf, and singersigner is scum (idk what side though). My third read is between either tclawren or SSS.

[LlamaFluff]

@TT - If we lynch town, mafia should shoot at wolf. If there are two wolf and mafia alive tomorrow, mafia chance of winning is close to zero. It helps town, but its the only way that mafia can likely win since in that position they would need a wolf lynch, two mason deaths and another wolf lynch. Basically zero room for error, therefore even though it goes against what standard logic is, its the right move. I swear this better not be a repete of what we already went through.

[ToastyToast]

Can someone please summarize the case on Glass? Maybe I'm missing something

[Crazy]

For me, it's because of Glass' abrupt jump on the Krazy wagon using poor reasoning (top of page 7). Then when Krazy refuted that reasoning, Glass didn't budge.

I'll admit that Krazy

was

scummy, after all, I was pretty much the one that started the wagon, but Glass' reasoning seemed like it was just any excuse to get on the wagon, and then he couldn't really back it up.

You can check my ISO if you want more detail.

[ToastyToast]

Hmm good points. I'll have to ISO glass tonight.

[Furcolow]

1) Crazy seeming a bit more town being in-game with him than reading through the thread, and after I had picked off

Ok.... So besides how my facepalm is scummy, your entire case on me is that crazy is town. I don't get it.

this post makes no sense and is entirely false

[Furcolow]

also toastytoast, i HAVE NOT been lurking since I read my role pm... try again

[Glass]

For me, it's because of Glass' abrupt jump on the Krazy wagon using poor reasoning (top of page 7). Then when Krazy refuted that reasoning, Glass didn't budge.

You can yell until you are blue in the face that krazy refuted my reasoning. But he really didn't.

Ok.... So besides how my facepalm is scummy, your entire case on me is that crazy is town. I don't get it.

this post makes no sense and is entirely false

ORLY?
Here is your stated reason for voting me.

Glass, my vote is on you due to
1) Crazy seeming a bit more town being in-game with him than reading through the thread, and after I had picked off
2) Your reaction to me being suspicious of you

I felt your reaction was scummy, so you got my vote.

The "reaction" you are referring to is me facepalming, and there has been no explanation as to why that is scummy, you seem to have completely ignored that question.
So your only other reason is that crazy is town. My post just brought your nonsensical voting reason to light, and it is entirely true.

Furcolow jumping onto this wagon with these "reasons" is really making me worry about his case. If llama flips scum I think I have a good idea of who the partner is.

[ToastyToast]

@llama: If mafia is likely to aim for wolf, then why is it better to go after mafia today?

[Crazy]

Yes, he did, Glass. Your argument against Krazy was that he didn't read your post. His later posts

about

your post were so long and detailed that it was obvious that he

did

read your post. But don't bother arguing with me about it, my vote's staying where it is. You'll have to convince these other guys.

Only question for me is if you're mafia or werewolf, and if you're a werewolf, who your partner is. Chk/Toast is my best guess atm.

[Glass]

Yes, he did, Glass. Your argument against Krazy was that he didn't read your post. His later posts about your post were so long and detailed that it was obvious that he did read your post. But don't bother arguing with me about it

idc if you don't want to hear it, you are going to hear it since I actually want to be lynching scum today and you seem to have enough sheep that if I don't convince you my lynch is going to happen. You totally ignored the fact that krazy could have read my posts AFTER I attacked him for not doing so. Do you think that if mafia was being attacked for not reading a post they would continue to ignore the post? It is pretty obvious that the ONLY move scum could do in that scenario is read the post and make up whatever excuse they could for their actions. Krazy's inanity in his followup showed just that to me.

[ToastyToast]

Only question for me is if you're mafia or werewolf, and if you're a werewolf, who your partner is. Chk/Toast is my best guess atm.

Because I think llama is obvwolf and would rather have him lynched than glass? okay...

[Crazy]

Only question for me is if you're mafia or werewolf, and if you're a werewolf, who your partner is. Chk/Toast is my best guess atm.

Because I think llama is obvwolf and would rather have him lynched than glass? okay...

My feeling is based on Glass' flip-flopping towards the chk wagon Day 1 more than anything. Goes straight from weak distancing into chainsaw defense by attacking Quaroath. Eh, maybe I'm wrong.

The one thing that's tripping me up about a Glass/chk team is that I can't figure out why they'd kill DRK instead of me.

And then there's that annoying voice in the back of my head saying "Hey, Llama would kill DRK," ugh.

Anyway, if Glass isn't a werewolf, I'm pretty sure he's mafia. But if he DOES flip Werewolf, then that probably means Llama isn't a werewolf, too.

[ToastyToast]

Anyway, if Glass isn't a werewolf, I'm pretty sure he's mafia. But if he DOES flip Werewolf, then that probably means Llama isn't a werewolf, too.

We're on the same page here. I'm just at the other side and think llama has a better chance of flipping scum.

[LlamaFluff]

@llama: If mafia is likely to aim for wolf, then why is it better to go after mafia today?

Two hits on town is game over essentially.

Grab a few index cards, write what is left on this game on them, and start pulling them away in possible death orders thinking about what each group would try to do in that scenario and their odds of actually doing it. Mafia lynch ends up in a worse case scenario a 4-2 endgame with two confirmed town, best case tack on a backup mason. Town lynch and it becomes best for mafia chances to hit wolf, but if mafia misses wolf, its a 2-2-1 endgame, which is bad for the mafia and town. Best case is a double cross kill with a 4-1 situation, but odds say that will not happen since wolf would not mafia hunt, most likely is a tossup between worse case and 3-1-1. So yes, I stand by my calcs.

[singersigner]

Back; catching up; see you soon. <3

[ToastyToast]

Okay, I'm starting to see llama's logic

Unvote:

I also did a quick ISO on Glass. The thing I noticed most was the buddying. Glass is curious as to why Llama stopped challenging parknourie/DRK when the switch happened, but at the same time seems to have liked park/DRK. So, I see them as possible partners.

Is this enough? NO WAY
But added to crazy's case and it becomes possible.
Glass has also failed to establish a good defense for himself.

Vote: Glass

I realize that this will seem odd after my belief that glass was town, but the responses from Llama, Crazy's argument, and my own ISO have made me much more skeptical about my original assumptions.

People I like today: crazy.
People who I can only like if they talk to me: SSS, tclawren, furculow
People on my bad side: singer (sorry, <3), Glass, llama

[ToastyToast]

The one thing that's tripping me up about a Glass/chk team is that I can't figure out why they'd kill DRK instead of me.

Well, DRK was a pretty active player too. Also, I remember a post (but can't find it due to not remembering who posted it) that said Crazy was the likely kill for N1. That could've thrown the wolves off.

[Glass]

I also did a quick ISO on Glass. The thing I noticed most was the buddying.

where?

Glass is curious as to why Llama stopped challenging parknourie/DRK when the switch happened, but at the same time seems to have liked park/DRK.

hmmm... I don't see what is wrong here? I thought that park/DRK was town and I thought that it was odd that llama (who thought they were scum) suddenly stopped attacking them.

Glass has also failed to establish a good defense for himself.

Yes, because my only defense is the truth. If you think that it is a poor defense whatever. I personally think that crazy's "evidence" has a major gaping hole that everyone is ignoring because
1.They have a major town read on crazy
2.They WANT to believe I am scum. Confirmation bias ftw, huh?

I have made my case on llama in various posts, and I will reiterate it tomorrow morning when I am more awake.

[Glass]

@Toast

I can't help but thinking that understanding llama's logic makes you more inclined to see him as town. Last I checked you thought:

Because I think llama is obvwolf

And now you think that it is possible I am scum. Do you tend to vote for someone who is possible scum over those who are obvscum?

[ToastyToast]

I'm essentially taking a risk--looking for mafia in the presence of wolves. In other words, I see why he thinks we should go after the second mafia--in order to reduce NK's. However, my wolf suspicions on Llama is still possible even with supporting what he says. I think llama is searching for mafia to avoid a cross-kill. However, searching for mafia still helps town considerably.

Some examples: For whatever reason, you LOVED DRK. saying hi when he arrived, among other things
That is not my entire argument but definately added scumpoints
You say you genuinely thought DRK was town, but why? was it merely gut? I saw those posts but little explanation--made sirens go off.

I agree that obvtown does not equal smarttown (as evidenced by crazy's poor case on krazy), but I am acknowledging that I see his point.

Town as a whole seems to want to mafia search rather than wolf search. I am more sure of my read on llama, but you strike me as being the highest possibility for mafia. If town as a whole gets in here and decides they don't give a shit and just want to lynch scum, then they should all be voting llama. But, look at the llama lynch. It was you and furculow. Not the towniest players.

If you need more clarification, ask away.