Open 291 Frenenemies (+ other guy) - Game over: Wolves win!

[ToastyToast]

The only way a werewolf lynch would be

worse

is if both scum-teams ended up killing different masons (which is why I asked that question in my last post). But I don't feel that that's a strong enough possibility to focus all our efforts on specifically lynching Mafia.

Why I'm hesitant to agree with you and Crazy ^^.

Why is it not a strong enough possibility?

[Glass]

How is that different from the masons getting killed one after the other over two nights toasty?

But I shall amuse you:
(numbers based on werewolf being lynched)
Odds of mafia hitting a mason = 1/3
Odds of wolf hitting other mason = 1/6
Odds of both masons dying = 1/18

(numbers based on mafia being lynched)
Odds of wolf hitting mason N2 = 2/5
Odds of wolf hitting mason N3 = 1/4
Odds of both masons dying = 2/20 = 1/10

Why does the wolves have a higher chance of killing both masons? Because they know that one person is not a mason (their partner)

Numbers, biatch.

[Glass]

How about this now?

Assuming that wolf is lynched:

Odds of mafia hitting wolf = 1/6
Odds of wolf hitting maf = 1/6
Odds of one of them dying = 1/3
Odds of insta-win = 1/36

Of course, there is no possibility of either with a maf lynch.

[Glass]

Of course, the mason statistics are without counting the backup mason, but since I am a math nerd I shall do that real quick:

(assuming wolf is lynched)
Odds of mafia hitting a mason = 1/2
Odds of wolf hitting a different mason = 1/3
Odds of 2/3 masons dying = 1/6

(assuming mafia is lynched)
Odds of wolves hitting mason N2 = 3/5
Odds of wolves hitting mason N3 = 1/2
Odds of 2/3 masons dying = 3/10

Clearly either way the wolf lynch is better

[ToastyToast]

Well, I'm quite opposite on that regard--i'm terrible at math. But this was made pretty simply, so thank you. I see your point then.
This doesn't change the fact that I think your mafia, but if, statistically, wolf is better, than llama deserves the lynch

Vote: Llama

I apologize for that

I still want to hear from the others, I can't make a legit decision about people who have said next to nothing.

Those on Glass' wagon (namely, furcolow): Do you think Llama is scum?
Those on Llama's wagon (SSS): Do you think Glass is scum?
Tclawren: Explain why your case on SSS is stronger than those on Glass/Llama.
Singer: Why are you still not caught up?

[LlamaFluff]

What Glasses analysis misses is optimization of kills from scum. The odds of scum hitting a mason if they are actually shooting for a mason is much higher then if they are shooting for the most town looking person, the biggest threat to them, etc. Roles change these odds. While the odds of scum killing town remain the same, which town changes, especially when you pick up on visual cues of the masons if they have to protect their partner, get ran up, etc.

In a game this size, if you cant pick out at least one mason, you need help reading people as town or scum. So chance of a mason dying is at least 1/2 (I would argue its about 2/3). If we lynch wolf, thats a 25% chance of both masons going down, and 75% chance of at least one dying, if you throw in the backup, its going to push 80%.

Glasses numbers rely on pure randomness, but if we lynch wolf, there is NO WAY in hell that scum are going to shoot for anything but masons. When this happens as I said we are going to lose at least one mason. I would put it on about 10/60/30 on no/one/two of the mason trio going down. Lynch mafia, and its going to be around 30% we hit a 3-2 endgame with two confirmed town, other 70% is same with one confirmed.

I hate big swing in games, and taking out a faction today kills off the rest of the swing the game may have. We mislynch, and then we are in a position where we need help to win. We lynch wolf, we need perfect lynches to win. I am going to say play it safe, mafia lynch is best. You disagree, fine, but there is zero way I see the wolf lynch as the "safer" of the two alternatives given how much we rely on help from scum to win.

[Glass]

Your numbers are such BS that I don't even know where to start.

What Glasses analysis misses is optimization of kills from scum. The odds of scum hitting a mason if they are actually shooting for a mason is much higher then if they are shooting for the most town looking person, the biggest threat to them, etc. Roles change these odds. While the odds of scum killing town remain the same, which town changes, especially when you pick up on visual cues of the masons if they have to protect their partner, get ran up, etc.

The scum will be aiming for masons, yes, so the odds of masons dying will increase. But it increases whether the mafia or wolf dies, even more so if the mafia dies because the wolves don't have to worry about the mafia targeting the same mason as them and they can throw ideas between one another.

You pretty much took actual numbers and said: "No, because the odds of masons dying are bigger". Ok fine so instead of the 1/6 and 3/10, it will be 2/6 and 6/10. happy? You then substituted faulty numbers with no reasoning other than to make it look like a mafia lynch is better.

[Glass]

Even if both the mafia and wolf pinpoint who both the masons are, the odds of them hitting opposite ones is only 50%, if we lynch a mafia and they pinpoint who the masons are it is 100%.

[Glass]

wow, I am triple posting far too much.

Note: The odds of the wolves pinpointing the masons are far greater than both the mafia AND wolves individually pinpointing the masons.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Those on Llama's wagon (SSS): Do you think Glass is scum?

Yeah, I have a scum read on Glass.

To be honest, I could be behind either lynch right now. As for whether I would lynch a wolf or mafia member, I'm partial to lynching mafia, mostly due to the chance of killing both masons in one night if both scum groups live. I know you're saying that a wolf lynch is better Glass, but the way I calculate it, it's about even, either way. If we leave one member of each alive, then they might join up to help protect themselves and both attack town. If there's only one scum team, then it's a regular game of mafia, with the possibility of masons being there.

Oh, and btw I unvoted in my last post. just in case,

unvote

Also, llama, you never did respond to glass's case against you on page 17. what do you think of it?

[Glass]

I'm partial to lynching mafia, mostly due to the chance of killing both masons in one night if both scum groups live.

How is that different from the masons getting killed one after the other over two nights

If we leave one member of each alive, then they might join up to help protect themselves and both attack town.

1. How?
2. Unlike how 2 wolves would NEVER team up to help protect themselves and attack town.

[tclawren]

@Toasty: Why are we talking about his again? You are stalling the game with this discussion about better kills. Do some scumhunting.

VOTE: Glass

For this terri-bad contradiction:

Iso #30

SSS, not all the events you said (36 or whatever) have the same probability of happening, but arguing this is still a moot point. Beggars can't be choosers. We will lynch scum without prejudice. If you personally want to put your focus on mafia/wolves go ahead, but I personally will be looking for both mafia and wolves.

Iso #49

Llama is purposely skewing the numbers, and crazy already explained this. But for him to continue to insist that a mafia lynch is better is ridiculous. read on:

If we lynch mafia, that means that there is 1 NK. Correct. This leaves us with a 4-2 spread. What llama fails to mention is that this is a mylo position and thus another no lynch and NK is inevitable. So either way there are going to be 2 NKs. If we have a mafia and a wolf dead there is not only a chance of a cross-kill, but we can also make relations of who is mafia and who is wolf much easier when we are at 3-1-1.

The odds of there being any number of masons is identical in both situations as there are 2 NKs in both situations.

Let's lynch us some scum.

[Glass]

Where is the contradiction?

[tclawren]

You say in the first post that there is no point in searching for a particular faction of scum.

Lately you've been going on and on and on about how it is best to lynch wolves.

[ToastyToast]

Not saying anything also stalls the game. I've done plenty of scumhuntng since I've replaced, tyvm

I'm taking about it because it reveals whose side people are on. Llama would much rather keep wolf around, glass would much rather keep mafia around. Llama's argument is based on feeling, glass is basing it on math.

Your ISO: Hmm its subtle, but it is a contradiction. However, placed in context, glass was trying to convince me not to aim for solely mafia.

Since you are now voting glass, plz answer the same question I asked SSS

[Glass]

However, placed in context, glass was trying to convince me not to aim for solely mafia.

Sort of...
Toast is confident that he has pegged the mafia and a wolf, he thought that the mafia lynch was better. Unfortunately he has NOT got the mafia correct, but if by showing him that the wolf lynch is better leads to a scum lynch I am all for it.

[Glass]

Just noting that I also do not like tclaw jumping from SSS to me as soon as he is questioned about being on said wagon.

[tclawren]

To answer Toast's First question Re: SSS-I put my vote on him because I feel like he is very much active lurking and voting without much reasoning at all and his explanation really didn't make me feel better about him. These are scumtells in my book.
I also voted for him because after Glass's explanation of my initial accusation I felt my case wasn't strong enough to place Glass in such a precarious spot when I wasn't convinced of his scumminess.
I felt much safer with SSS

To answer Toast's new question Re: Llama-I am getting scummy vibes from Llama yes. But honestly that is not saying much as I am getting scummish vibes from everyone this game. So it's a case of figuring out which one of my reads are the strongest. My top three scumreads right now are Glass, SSS and Furculow (call this last one mainly a gut read)

[Glass]

Dear mafia, the wolves will not be killing crazy tonight. You are free kill him if you want.
Sincerely, Glass

That is right, I am...

A WOLF

VOTE: Glass
I will be taking my leave now. Good luck fellow wolf.

I still think that crazy's case on me is crap. But that can wait until after the game is over.

[ToastyToast]

not that I'm complaining but, self-hammer=lololololol; probably some day talk plan

Twilight phase last thoughts: Llama is likely town--scum wouldn't banter that much.
wolf wants to work together with mafia.

[Furcolow]

toasty, not sure on LF, probably getting more of a townr ead

I liked TClawren even more this page

If Glass isn't lying, good job guys!

[tclawren]

If you can explain to me after the game is over how that could have possibly been beneficial to your wincon, I might let it slide. Otherwise that's really not cool.

[singersigner]

Frenemies Catch-Up:

Start of D2…I’m not sure why all this speculation is going on about which scum would be better to kill. In my opinion, find the scum first, and THEN figure out what to do with them (derpydoo, the correct answer would be to kill them, but for sake of finding both a mafia AND a werewolf, I don’t see why you only have to look for one).

I like smashbro’s effort in his case on LlamaFluff, though I’m curious as to why he has to “work” on building a case on me. If I’m scum, you would think it’d be easy for him.
It also seems as though he was stretching a bit to make ends meet for a case. Feigned scum-hunting as opposed to something legitimate.
Llama also answers why he didn’t think anyone should post at that point. He’s surprisingly town at this point, and SSS is seriously scum material.

In 320, Glass seemingly completely dismisses Llama’s defense of all the misreps SSS made against him. Did you disagree?
He also misses the fact that it was strictly the replacements that needed to be quiet.
He also missed the fact that town will still have a flip to work with the next day.

In chkflip’s 334, he does a little bit of opportunistic bandwagoning himself, while voting for someone who voted for a wagon.

TOO MUCH VOTE HOPING AND NOT ENOUGH DISCUSSION.

@chkflip…what do scum-motivated defenses look like?
Edit: damn, guess I won’t be getting an answer for this. : (

@tcl…you’re so town. <3
(also mulling over the idea of the masons claiming to narrow down the suspects…it’s rare that town can take advantage of losing two VTs and a mafia by D2, so the odds are in favor of finding scum this way…will probably change my mind)

lol.

TOASTEROVEN <3333333333333333

Oh no…you disappoint. : (

Singer has been V/LA, and I don't know what to think of her.

Followed immediately in the same post by:

So, I think: llama is wolf, and

singersigner is scum

(idk what side though).

Can you explain the discrepancy?
Also, you asked someone to summarize the case on Glass, and when Crazy brings up the one scummy point he’s found, you claim “hmm, good points.” I mean, really…there was one point made, and it wasn’t a very good one to back up an entire wagon.

WHAT IS THIS ANIMOSITY YOU HAVE TOWARD ME YOU JERK.
I don’t like Glass either but Toasty’s making a huuuuuge stretch to hop on his wagon. Crazy explains his krap logik for his “case” on Glass and I feel Toastasterone is seeing this as an opportunity to jump on a wagon.

Ok, I’m at my threshold for reading this game. I know there’s still a page that’s popped up since I returned from V/LA, but I’ll have to get to that later. No one comment on my claiming theory yet; I need to reassess my thoughts on that before I either disagree or agree with it myself.

<3

[Crazy]

Eh, at least I got 1 right.

My case on you was just based on the differences between scum and town mentality, Glass. Every once in a while, townies have a tendency to consider whether what they're saying makes any sense at all. Perhaps you still would have pursued the case on Krazy even if you were town, but maybe not in the same exact way.

Or you can argue that mafia is all luck and I just got lucky in guessing you as scum.

I'm also glad you're a werewolf over a mafia.

[Glass]

Or you can argue that mafia is all luck and I just got lucky in guessing you as scum.

Lol, I am not that butthurt. But this is discussion for later.