Newbie 1070 - Game Over

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count

Stels (2) - Rain, Quaroath
T-Bone (2) - Ellyssa, splitfarvle
Rain (1) - Nachomamma8
Nachomamma8 (1) - Stels

Not Voting (1) - T-Bone

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

[Rain]

@Mod
Can you please mention the deadline as well during vote counts?

[splitfarvle]

T-Bone and Rain are my scum picks. I think Ellyssa and Stels are town, and I'm leaning town for Nacho. I've been trying to figure out why Quaroath is playing the way he is and I'm still not sure what to think. I would like to hear more from him about his vote on Stels.

[Alduskkel]

Ellyssa, T-Bone, and Quaroath have all been prodded.

[T-Bone]

Oh whoops my bad. No one had any new thoughts and neither do I, so I didn't post.

[Ellyssa]

Hallo. I'm here. Not much more to report since my last post since I was hoping QUaroath would give his Stels reasons too.

Can we have updated town/scum picks, maybe, as a way of opening more discussion? We have.. 5-ish days left?

Day 2 dawns with 7 alive. It is 4 to lynch. The deadline is set for the end of April 2nd, PST.

I'll start, with just a reread of Day 2.

Quaroath has voted a bunch of people since D2 started.. for me that initially seemed like a fairly strong town tell, despite some questionable things here and there in D1. One question jumps out at me though.

@Quaroath: You voted Rain, then Split, then now Stels, in D2. You give a reason each time but you I don't think you've retracted any of the earlier suspicions of the first two in your posts. Since there are only two Mafia, which one of the three don't you believe is Mafia now? You seem to be jumping at people a bit instead of trying to find the scum pairing, as I tried to allude to here but it kind of got ignored.



I'm majorly wavering on T-Bone. I'll present my conflicting thoughts I get from re-reading T-Bone D2 even if it makes me look wishy-washy:

I'm worried I am/was tunneling him a bit too much, because even though I don't like his D1 posts and his lack of evidence for a couple of his votes, the responses after our little squabble seem to be solid scumhunting. This quote below from a D2 context (ie, the situation at the time, since I mention below that I don't think it applies now anymore), seems bluntly townie on a reread, though I disagreed against it earlier since there are still 2 scum left and people may have other suspects they were chasing.

Truth be told, if/when I get lynched, it'll tell a lot about the people voting me, and the town might have a chance come LyLo Day 3. Those who were giving excuses to justify when they jump on by bandwagon later. If those people making excuses to vote me later really think I'm scum, why aren't they voting me now? Why haven't I been lynched? Because they realize I'll flip town and they'll be in hot water come Day 3?

What I don't quite get is that since I have a fairly strong town read on split too (much stronger than T-Bone read anyway), if all 3 of us are town, then why aren't the scum jumping on this wagon? They could have just agreed x2, and cause a mislynch, especially since so many quiet days have gone by. That's one of the things that makes me doubt a town read on T-Bone.

This post by split gives the other viewpoint though, that in terms of voting patterns (from here as well as D1) T-Bone seems ten shades of scummy. With split's new position of T-Bone and Rain being the scumpair, the last line in that argument doesn't hold anymore but the rest of the argument still stands and maybe they both have been soft-FoSing each other without voting each other. I'm finding myself agreeing with that pairing more and more as a distinct possibility.


A similar case for Stels. If he is town, and both Quar and Rain are town, then why haven't the Mafia sidled on with "oh I've reread the entire thread" arguments since so many days have gone by with not much action? I don't think what T-Bone said about hot water is true anymore in this stage of D2, because we're obviously not going anywhere until we consolidate the votes since we're approaching the end of the day now, after over a week or two of little activity, so there's been plenty of opportunity to jump wagon. They can't possibly be waiting a townie to be mislynched by the other 4 townies, and I doubt they want to be the 4th vote on a mislynchwagon, though maybe they're trying to play for a no-lynch.

The battle lines seem drawn (split/me on T-Bone, Quar/Rain on Stels), and is it mathematically reasonable to conclude that with 4 needed for a lynch, there is exactly 1 scum in each grouping, on each of those wagons or being wagoned, which is why neither is being pushed? If that's reasonable, that's what I'm using in my mind as more evidence that Nacho is town to me (ie, not being in either group), not only due to his postings (Sorry Stels, but that coaching bit really seems just like defending his viewpoint to T-Bone) but also how he entered the game, his first few posts are more reminiscent of town than scum because he didn't discuss his predecessor's scumminess, which is the major scumtell I was watching for.


@Rain: You still have everyone as a neutral/town pick besides Stels, which is a dubious argument by your own admission at best? At the end of D2? Your posts recently haven't been too inspiring or scumhunting. At all.

FoS: Rain

Stels' #12 was not unprompted. Jack's list was, I followed suit and invited others to join. Stels came later, after Ellyssa.

The gist of why my vote remains on Stels is this:
- He provided no explanation to his read-change on Jack right after Ellyssa and I changed our reads.
- He keeps his vote on Nacho despite acknowledging the original reason behind the vote may not be a scum tell.
- He exhibits no town tells (subjective, and admittedly weakest argument here).

My reaction to these points are:
- It seems everyone flipped-flopped on Jack there, whether they actually posted it or not, though you may be partially right on that.
- At least he's trying to scumhunt. He questioned Nacho, questioned me, questioned Quaroath (on a misinterpretation), and doesn't seem to be worried about offending T-Bone.
- But neither have you, recently.

I don't see you being a partner with Stels though. If he flips town, I might reconsider a T-Bone + Quaroath duo since Quar's latest posts have yet to mention T-Bone in any significant way (reminiscent of my d1 point much? sans confusing names this time around), but honestly, there's little scum motives behind his D2 pushes. His infrequent posts and RL issues might be clouding scumminess but.... eh. Stels is still scummier.

Barefoot was iffy. Nacho is town. I believe in Nacho, even if Nacho doesn't believe in me.

That worries me in another way too because if Stels flips town, and you are town, you know as an IC that we'll be in lylo and any considering should probably be done now while we still can survive another mislynch, instead of at that time. That just could be seen as setting up tomorrow's mislynch.

[Stels]

/Anti-Prod-Type-Of-Post
I've been busy this whole week + weekends and couldn't tend to the game.
Will get back to this sometime this week.

[Rain]

That worries me in another way too because if Stels flips town, and you are town, you know as an IC that [...]

I don't vote for a person whom I think is scum, then consider scenarios where said said person is town. It seems like unnecessary mental masturbation. It happens that I'm wrong, but I won't let doubts cloud my judgement. Stels is the scummiest person here, and I'm voting for him.

Perhaps I wasn't clear. My scum list, in decreasing order of scumminess, is Stels, T-Bone, and Quaroath.

[Alduskkel]

Nachomamma8 has been prodded.

[Quaroath]

Hallo. I'm here. Not much more to report since my last post since I was hoping QUaroath would give his Stels reasons too.

I'll start, with just a reread of Day 2.

Quaroath has voted a bunch of people since D2 started.. for me that initially seemed like a fairly strong town tell, despite some questionable things here and there in D1. One question jumps out at me though.

@Quaroath: You voted Rain, then Split, then now Stels, in D2. You give a reason each time but you I don't think you've retracted any of the earlier suspicions of the first two in your posts. Since there are only two Mafia, which one of the three don't you believe is Mafia now? You seem to be jumping at people a bit instead of trying to find the scum pairing, as I tried to allude to here but it kind of got ignored.

My current thought process on scum is Stels, and either T-Bone or nacho. I still haven't lost that thread in my mind that stels and barefoot were the scum team. I'm fairly certain Split is town from his reaction to my vote, and Rain I'm thinking is likely town.

I'm not really sure how in depth to get with my reasons for the stels vote. Pretty much it's the same as D1, but compounded by today. I also severely distrust that my gut is telling me he's probably town when my head and thought process screams scum. I'm trusting my thoughts over my emotions, as I suspect part of that comes from my overly aggressive stance towards him, as a compensation.

[Nachomamma8]

Anti-prod post.

I can't say I'm happy with my Rain vote at the moment. Deadline is in four days, and my vote on Rain's not doing anything. Not exactly convinced of his innocence yet, but my case against him really isn't that strong...

I'm really not happy with these random scum suspect lists before deadline, though. If you're going to give a suspect list, then you need to put reasons. Otherwise, scum's just gonna build a case on the townie who's suspected the most. If you put cases with your suspicions, then you make it much more difficult for scum because they just can't sheep your cases; they have to find posts that look scummy that you missed, meaning that they're going to be making a lot more terrible-sounding cases than they normally would.

Anyways, I think I'll do some ISOs either today when I get back from school or early tomorrow morning.

[Ellyssa]

@Rain Okay, that kind of makes sense, thanks. Who you thought Stels' partner was was what I was trying to get at. T-bone if he's your 2nd scummiest then?

We have like 4 days left.. Stels, hopefully when you said sometime this week, you didn't mean like Friday afternoon just before the deadline.

@Quaroath What swayed you on T-Bone becoming one of your top 3? Last week (#294) you said you had a neutral read on him, when I was trying to get more people to vote him. Now he's one of two potential scum partners.

[Quaroath]

@Ellyssa.

Addition through subtraction really.

Playerlist:

Rain

Quaroath

Ellyssa

Split

T-Bone
Stels
Nacho

Striked through name indicate people I consider town at this point.
Kinda obvious who the other three are, no?

[splitfarvle]

Can we get a consensus going for either T-Bone or Stels? I'm not feeling the case on Stels, I'll re-read the thread and consider it though. I tend to be really busy Tues thru Thurs, but I'll do my best to make a final case asap.

[Rain]

Based on interactions, when Stels flip scum, T-Bone is a likely scum partner. T-Bone was on muh-wagon when Stels was off. T-Bone voted for Stels in early D1, then somehow Stels "redeemed" himself by saying he finished some RL project. T-Bone being already scummy is just icing on the cake.

I'd much rather lynch Stels before T-Bone. I don't think Nacho's going to be lynched today.

[Ellyssa]

Er, Nacho? How does he come into the picture?

[T-Bone]

Well I'm torn between Rain or Stels, so that kinda blows a few theories about a me and Rain/Stels pairing huh? So who's my scum partner then if it isn't one of them? Unless...I don't have one.

I'll drop my vote before the deadline. I'm in a grey area in terms of who is playing more like scum.

This doesn't mean I think the rest of you are town, that's far from the case. File you guys under, a little less likely to be scum.

[Ellyssa]

Hrm. What about Stels? I thought in your ISO, 3 posts ago,

I missed you guys.

Guess the only problem I have with the most recent posts is Rain. At least make a case on Stels. Geez.

and 2 posts ago,

What is the case on Stels exactly?

@ Split, the simple answer is I haven't decided yet.

indicated you didn't have anything against Stels and were calling for more evidence? Or did I misunderstand/misinterpret you there?

Last post it was:

Oh whoops my bad. No one had any new thoughts and neither do I, so I didn't post.

So no opinion change from before, and there's been no case against Stels since that post, so

[T-Bone]

WTF DOES ISO MEAN???

No one will answer in my other game either.

Yep you caught me, I contradicted myself it looks like. Whoops.

[Quaroath]

Iso = isolation, looking at just one persons posts by choosing them in the "Display posts by user" dropdown box below.

[T-Bone]

Oh that's cool.

[Ellyssa]

Yeah, sorry, I kind of glossed over that abbreviation. I wish more forums had that feature!

And I don't know how much to blame you really, with the speed of the game.. but my vote's already on you anyway so I don't have to make some long justification.

[T-Bone]

Honestly I made a mistake. I was reading how I'm scum with either Rain and Stels, but I'm willing to lynch them just the same as everyone else. That's where my thought process was.

[Stels]

Well, first off, I sincerely apologize for being a lazy a-hole. That's the reason why I didn't post.
@Ellyssa: I actually wanted to make it Saturday, but then I hop back on and see the deadline is too close...
__________________________________________________

@Everyone: I would like to keep my vote on Nacho, but it's not being productive, as a lot of you are convinced that he is more than 100% town... This makes me sad :'( in many ways.
(This figure is a figment of my imagination).
UNVOTE: Nachomamma8
__________________________________________________

@Quaroath: I read through your ISO and guess what I found? Day 1, you just go up and randomly paint me as scum (I think this is due to the pre-game things that happened between me and that you still use that to this day). Your case was weak, the one you tried to make? and so far, you never really explained your disposition on me clearly since your "Logic and Thought Processes" clearly don't show me as one. Sorry, your scum is in another castle.
__________________________________________________

Based on interactions, when Stels flip scum, T-Bone is a likely scum partner. T-Bone was on muh-wagon when Stels was off. T-Bone voted for Stels in early D1, then somehow Stels "redeemed" himself by saying he finished some RL project. T-Bone being already scummy is just icing on the cake.

I'd much rather lynch Stels before T-Bone. I don't think Nacho's going to be lynched today.

Then go for T-Bone? I love the case you made on me, it just shows how freaking stupid this whole thing is. You want to lynch me based on a scum read that you have on another person. LOLOLOLOL.
__________________________________________________

@Ellyssa/Everyone: Why the hell are you all talking about scum partners when we haven't even nailed a single scum yet? The fact that you guys are doing so is freaking weird.
List of people who do so:
Ellyssa
Quaroath
T-Bone
I see some correlation between these three people. If I were to say something about this in a similar manner as they have that distracts people from their main scum suspects and gives them a pre-vote advantage in a subconscious way is that there is either a Ellyssa/T-Bone team or Quaroath/T-Bone team... Ellyssa/Quaroath team I don't see, due to their interactions with one another being distanced... How do you like them apples now!?
__________________________________________________

@T-Bone: Yet you do nothing on that matter to try and get us lynched because you supposedly suspect us both? You just want to wait it out and vote the wagon that fits you the most in the end, without doing anything else.
VOTE: T-Bone
Your scummy actions were enough as they were, now you're just being a pain in the ass for me as well as the "Scum-Pairs" that I have stated where you appear in both...
OH WAIT, I forgot that I also had a 'pre-vote' on you too! What a coincidence! How about you get off your ass and do something then.
__________________________________________________
ISO#0: Comments about his role. Either Scum or PR. I tend to go with Scum.
ISO#1&2: Fluff
ISO#3: RVS/Non-RVS vote. "On how Stels sorta slipped onto the bandwagon"
ISO#4: muh = scum fluff
ISO#5: Stels didn't convince him to remove the vote yet.
ISO#6: Explanation for Ellyssa
ISO#7: Quaroath doesn't contribute Fluff
ISO#8: I WANT TO PLAY! Fluff
ISO#9: Fluff
ISO#10: Jack/Quaroath Posting Amount Comparison
ISO#11: T-Bone - Lurker King
ISO#12: Votes muh316, says he was another pick between me and him. Never mentioned this before. Stels "redeemed himself"
ISO#13: Corrects Previous Post
ISO#14: DOT DOT DOT
ISO#15: Explains the "Redemption" - Stels hasn't posted anything.
ISO#16-22: Fluff
ISO#23: It's not my fault you can't read me, it's yours!
ISO#24: I AM GOING ON VACATION, START TALKING!
ISO#25: Fluff
ISO#26: V/LA
ISO#27: REVELATION! JACK WAS PAINTED AS TOWN! THAT'S WHY HE DIED.
ISO#28: Ellyssa Vote.
ISO#29-31: Fluff
ISO#32: Replies to Ellyssa.
ISO#33&34: Fluff
ISO#35: MY VOTE IS UP FOR GRABS ON THE LARGEST BANDWAGON.
ISO#36: I GOT PREVOTED BY RAIN AND STELS, BOOOOOHOOOOOO :'( SADFACE
ISO#37: EBWOP
ISO#38: Rain Logic: Ellyssa scum (T-Bone's Opinion) Makes T-Bone scum
ISO#39: Unvote. Ellyssa is a 100% confirmed townie?
ISO#40: LyLo promise that he will reveal all the cards!
ISO#41: EBWOP
ISO#42-45: Fluff
ISO#46: What is the case on Stels?
ISO#47-50: Fluff
___________________________________________________

[T-Bone]

Oh I like this one. I was waiting for you Stels. "Oh he's being a pain in the ass VOTE!" You've been complaining about my play for a couple of posts. I was waiting for you or Rain to try and justify your pre-vote. Yes I knew you were going to eventually vote me, and yess I'm 100% going to vote you for it. You're making excuses to lynch me, your case is as weak as anyone else's, you were just waiting to slip onto the wagon. Don't try to spin it any other way, you made it clear you were going to jump on my bandwagon as soon as it was convenient for you.

You guys know what you need to do on LyLo tomorrow. Or rather the town among you need to know what to do tomorrow.

Vote: Stels

Because OMGUS is an obvious scumtell. You or me buddy, we're both at L-1.