Newbie 1086 (GAME OVER)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Greetings fellow players! I am MagnaofIllusion, and I’ll be your IC for this game of Mafia. Greetings to Jason, who I believe is the only player I have met here on Mafiascum.

As your IC my job, while of course playing Mafia, is to serve as a helpful guide to acclimating yourself to the environment here at MafiaScum. I will answer any questions you might have about site norms and try to model good play for you. As a player I will play to win, regardless of affiliation. Please note I will do my best to address concerns you have about game theory, but since playstyles and tactics for the most part are subjective choices I will not delve too deeply into theory arguments.

Runner and SpacePope are your SE (or semi-experienced) players here. While they have no formal requirements to serve in a teaching capacity I hope they will share what they’ve learned in their experiences here at Mafiascum. Jason should also be considered an SE as he exceeds the requisite experience to be an IC.

General Advice

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1. The Mafia Wiki can be found HERE. It is a good source of information about players, game theory, and common fallacies you might find in Mafia games. Please remember that while a hand site it is not the 100% Bible about Mafia. Many areas of game theory are hotly debated.
2. Please if you do not have an avatar please get one. It doesn’t require a Flicker or similar account and will make it easier for all the players to distinguish you when reading the thread. I see that everyone who didn't have one has quickly gotten that straighted out so far. Thank you.
3. Play to win. There may come a point in the game where you feel like you are doomed. Don’t give up and do your best to play to your win condition. Regardless of the game outcome as long as you gave an honest effort you should be proud.
4. Don’t have thin skin. Mafia is by nature a confrontational game. Accusations will be made against you at some point in the game. Do your best to not take them personally.
5. Don’t be a jerk. The easiest way for a game of Mafia to stop being enjoyable for all the players involved is to make things personal.
6. Don’t bring assumptions from previous site or RL expiences to the game. Mafiascum is likely very different than you in some ways than where you played before. It’s best not to assume that things you take for granted work the same way here. I played for over 2 years on another site before joining Mafiascum and the differences in the general site metas took some time to adjust to for me.

Game Specific Advice

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1. Read the rules. While Newbie games are fairly standard as a teaching tool each Mod can have specific twists to their rule set. Being familiar with the Mod’s rule-set will make you better equipped to play to your win condition.
2. Don’t self-vote. The number of situations where it is useful to advancing your win condition in a Newbie game by self-voting are very few and far between. Self-voting deprives the other players of potential information about who would be voting for you in place of ourself.
3. Don’t be timid. Although myself and the SE players may have more experience or credentials than you it does not make us infallible. Don’t back down from an argument just because one of us disagrees with you.
4. Use knowledge of the set-up to your advantage. The Mod has outlined the 4 possible set-up permutations in his introductory posts. As the game progresses more and more information may become available you may be able to detect a lie simply based on what possible set-ups may be ruled out.
5. Don’t claim your role unnecessarily. It doesn’t benefit your team to offer up your role without reason. Site standards in a Newbie game generally say that outside of a Mass-claim scenario you shouldn’t claim until you are at L-1 (ie one vote away from being lynched) and another player indicates they are willing to place the last vote ... aka hammer you.
6. Be active. Zach and your fellow players are putting a good effort into the game. With only 9 players to start with inactive players can really damage the flow and fun of the game.

That concludes my introductory IC post (or as some call them Snooze-vile central). Please feel free to ask me any questions you have.

I see that the stage of a game commonly called RVS (Random Vote Stage) has already begun. As the game opens up and no real information is available people generally make random votes to spark discussion.

I’ll add my two cents by casting my vote.

VOTE: Rocky. RVS is certainly not devoid of information and anyone floating the theory it is must be scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, back from my long weekend –

Well last time I checked RVS standed for Random Vote Stage, so yeah.

I think this has already been handled but the theory behind Random Number Generators being scummy is as follows –

A valid vote, regardless of RVS or not, betrays something about the players make-up. Scum, especially have sometimes been known to RVS their partner as a clumsy distancing tactic. Putting your vote in the hands of a randomizer is somewhat seen as an attempt to avoid laying psychological footprints.

I don’t necessarily agree that it is a strong tell but I have seen it from scum before.

The same logic applies to invalid votes (like Mod votes in a non-bastard game). By specifically not voting for anyone you don’t risk alienating a player with a vote (even an RVS vote) and don’t give away any information unnecessarily.

Since the game is on, I'm gonna wait to see the other people's actions are since you know, lurking is quite scummy.

Please elaborate. You are going to sit back passively and let others make moves?

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I assume that this was a joke? If it's not, then let me know and I think it could serve some very interesting discussion.

No, it is not a joke. Scum have been and will be caught by RVS votes / posts. RVS is, IMO, just a name we use for the part of the game where things get moving. Scummy play can occur then and to dismiss it just because “its RVS” isn’t good Town play.

With that being said, I prefer asking random questions over RVS in order to get the game going.

1. How are random questions going to cause pressure to scum any more than votes?
2. Why didn’t you being your first post with some Random Questions?

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Implying that he is town is pretty scummy.

Why? The only person a Town player knows 100% to be Town Day 1 is themselves. It is in the role PM from the Mod. I’d like insight into why inferring you are Town is more likely to come from scum.

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I ask because it makes a difference. A noobtell is much more likely to be a scumtell if there's no noob behind it.

1. What is a noobtell?
2. Why is scummy play from a player suddenly change based on his join date. I had over 2 years of Non-MS forum Mafia experience before I came here. Why should, in my first game, I have been given the benefit of the doubt for being New when I had copious experience? Why should it ever be assumed that anyone new to MS doesn’t have Mafia experience?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My reasons for voting matt have been given through the questions I am asking him, particularly because of the way he is discussing the town/mafia dynamic, in short he is the scummiest person to me right now and the person I have the most questions for.

Yet your questions are posed in a manner that indicates little suspicion other than in the volume.

1. Are you suspicion of Zengar and Sisterman also?
2. Do you find him scummy for the contradictions as pointed out by Jason?

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Putting matt at L-2 with little more explanation than "I want to get on a bandwagon," though? That's good enough to get me out of RVS. Vote: rockynpoika

You’ve just done the same thing you accuse Rocky of … putting someone at L-2 with little reasoning, in your case that you didn’t like him doing so.

If he is scummy for that action what does that say about you?

The fact that you're the one who brought it up indicates that you're hardly neutral in the matter, so it doesn't surprise me that you're jumping down my throat suddenly, especially since I've already indicated you're on my scumdar.

Are you stating that Jason’s reaction to your play is scum driven?

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So? I'm sorry, but that's not even close to any kind of slip. Are mafia not careful and precise? Don't try to tell me that they aren't. It doesn't mean that everybody who is slightly cautious is scumtelling. I've been just as cautious as everyone else in this game, including you. With your line of reasoning, I could suspect you.

The issue that has been brought forward is a mild case of Cognitive Dissoance – you state that scum are likely to be cautious yet you’ve acted in a manner in-line with that theory.

I'm making so many mistakes that I probably deserved to be lynched anyway

1. What mistakes are you making that you feel are lynchworthy?
2. You didn’t answer my second question – if you believe in Random Questions as a scum-hunting tool why didn’t you post some in your first post?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Project

– why did you specifically avoid responding to my post at 57 when you posted at 59?

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Implying that you are town is scummy.

Without getting into a game theory argument just know it will take more than that even at this early stage to sway me.

Tell me, on this other site were the mods players? Didn't that seem to be a bit unbalanced if the mods know all of the roles in the game and who has them?

Ya... lying scum.

So what is he lying about specifically? That he thought Zach was playing in this game? Regardless of what you assert he is lying about explain this - what is his motivation to say that and what does he gain as scum by doing so?

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No, just reactionary. It's essentially a very watered down form of OMGUS.

So you infer that Jason is scummy for undermining you after you had stated suspicion of him but now say it isn’t scummy?

That I misread the vote count, I guess. I actually thought he only had one vote on him.

That doesn’t answer the question of whether you are scummy for doing exactly the same thing as Rocky.

I'm much happier with a Rocky wagon than a matt wagon, though, since the reasoning against him is somewhere between mostly and entirely baseless:
- Jason: His unvote sounds like nervous mafia.
- Space Pope: He implied that he was town.
- Rocky: He said that he was being cautious by unvoting, then also mentioned that mafia are cautious about their word choices.

Again, this doesn’t address at all whether you are similarly scummy to Rocky for taking actions exactly the same as him.

Let me also address the following theory floated by you –

You don’t ascribe to that Matt is being scummy.
Jason, Pope and Rocky have all given reasons (however little you believe them) for their votes.
The two other people voting for Rocky were doing it in RVS and thus you are the only vote on Rocky with any real game reasoning (no matter how little others may believe you).
You conclude that a wagon on a player with 2 RVS votes is better than a wagon with 0 RVS votes?

That chain of logic makes little sense to me. I’m reading over-justification of your vote in this explanation from you. It’s Page 3 of the game. There aren’t going to be slam-dunk solid reasons for any wagon.

By the way, you also have a vote on him and you didn't unvote. Do you have some suspicions that you haven't let us in on?

No, I did not have unstated suspicions. I do not keep my vote idle. I was looking in thread for scum motivated play to make an actual vote.

UNVOTE: Rocky
VOTE: Mowgri

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI- ??? Why did you only quote the first sentence in the paragraph as an answer to your question?

Because the rest of the post was extraneous to my response. I disagree fundamentally that with your assertion that only scum say / infer they are Town. The rest of that paragraph was only there to support your premise. I don’t prefer to quote anything that isn’t relevant.

Now onto the two quotes I posted. He is lying that he thought the mod was in the game. 1) It is an excuse to why he voted Zach. 2) He lied. Lynch all liars. What excuse would he have for lying about that as town? He is scum.

Projectmatt never voted Zachrules. That was Zengar. Strike one to the theory.

Can you prove he didn’t think Zach was in the game? I agree it doesn’t seem logical but to outright state you know what was in Project’s head is fairly absurd.

Your inability to conceive of a Town motivation for lying (which once again isn't assured to have even happened) about the Mod being in the game does not mean it could only be scum motivated.

Again – what does he gain as scum by stating that he thought Zach was in the game. Keep in mind that Zengar had already posted his Mod vote before Project had posted himself.

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@MOI- What is your viewpoint on Lynch-all-Liars?

Lynch all Liars, like all policy lynches, is flawed at best. I see it implemented as often as an excuse for Scum to effect a bad lynch as I do Town using it to lynch scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No, that is exactly the opposite of what I said. I said that I suspect Jason, but not because he jumped on me.

Originally you posted the following –

The fact that you're the one who brought it up indicates that you're hardly neutral in the matter, so it doesn't surprise me that you're jumping down my throat suddenly,

especially since I've already indicated you're on my scumdar.

The soft but clear inference here is that it is suspicious of Jason to be questioning you since, as bolded, you are suspicious of him.

When I questioned you then you revised to saying you suspected him for other reasons.

Let's go back over this:
- I thought there was one vote on Rocky at the time.
- I actually placed the third vote on Rocky, not the second.
- You pointed this out to me.
- Having realized this, I kept my vote where it was, for the reasons detailed earlier: A) Rocky wasn't going to stay at L-2; and B) nothing Matt has done strikes me as scummy, yet Rocky and Jason seem very eager to put vote pressure on him.

You can repeat the course of events multiple times if you like but I require a direct answer to my question. Again please answer the following question –

Should you be viewed as being scummy for placing someone at L-2 with little reasoning? This is a Yes or No question … please answer accordingly.

Even if you're right on every point you've made about me, you haven't explained why it strikes you as "scum motivated play."

I’ll explain in full once you stop dodging the direct question I’ve asked you. You and Project seem to have that little habit in common.

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Also... Epic mafia is not a forum based mafia game and because of that, you can not play it the same as you would here.

What was the point of stating this? Project has not stated he’s attempting to play the same here .. in fact he’s stated he’s trying to transition.

Out of the experienced players, MoI is the only one who has put any effort into questioning another non-newbie. (SpacePope)

You do understand that under normal role distribution (1 IC, 2 SE, 6 New players) that any experienced player has 3 times as many inexperienced players to interact with than other experienced players, correct?

We do have an additional player with experience in Jason but I would expect the interactions to spread as we get more pages of play.

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MOI- Can I prove what he was thinking? No, but you can't really prove anything in a game of mafia, you can only make logical inferences based on what is presented to you. That is what I did.

You didn’t present your “Project is lying, Lynch All Liars” case in a manner that was logically solid. You didn’t inquire about the nature of his experience or the site norms he came from. Having now seen that his experience was based on Epic.mafia where the term Moderators holds a completely different meaning are you still going to claim he was lying?

Though, looking back, I find the whole Matt thing a bit off, but when Matt didn't vote me or FOS me for attacking him, I think he is more town than not.

So ignoring you is solid Town play?

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's a loaded question. Either I can answer yes, and you'll view me as scummy, or I can answer no, and you'll view me as scummy. I see little point in answering such a question.

Moreover, judging by your current vote, you seem to have made up your mind on the matter anyway.

I’ve bolded for emphasis … I didn’t vote you until after you dodged the question. The inference that my mind was set before you could answer the question isn’t accurate at all.

A reaction of “Oh, so I did … I guess you could say I might be scummy if you choose but I’m placing my vote on who I think is scum” or something similar would have been a natural response.

Your response was to not directly answer but first show how the wagon on Project was baseless (in your opinion) and then to try to say that the RVS votes mean Rocky was not really at L-2.

For the record putting someone at L-2 with any sort of backing really isn’t scummy at all at this stage. Rocky wasn’t scummy for doing it and neither were you. Both of you presented reasoning, however limited, for your votes. Your reaction, however, isn’t one I would expect from Town. Too much justification for what amounted to minor suspicion.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – Can we get a request a prod on Sisterman, please?

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But let's play this from a different angle. Suppose I am scum. Why am I defending matt?

There are two possible motivations for your defense if you are Scum -

1. He is your buddy. I see you tried to minimize this with the WIFOM (which you dismiss as not WIFOM) but it stands. Newbie games have only 2 Mafians. Bussing is very unproductive to scum, especially early. If your partner was in danger, especially if they were a Role-blocker to your Goon, it would be worth the risk to try to keep them from being the lynch Day 1. As you stated the possible connection would only be useable against you when one of the two of you flipped Scum.
2. He is Town. You yourself stated his is ‘an easy lynch’ (which I don’t understand the reasoning for, BTW). White-knighting him if you think he is eventually going to be lynched gives you ‘Town Cred’ for a correct read.

Of those two options I find 2 to be more likely then 1. Also, of course, you could be Town with a Town read on Matt. But dismissing the possibility in a wave of WIFOM isn’t a valid defense.

Why bring up potential scum pairs so early Day 1? That’s a fairly fruitless line of discussion until we have some flips to work with.

No one else has his back and he's the easy lynch. Look, even now that he's got a rational and plausible explanation for all of his actions, he still has two votes on him.

Two votes at this stage are rather inconsequential. Really I don’t see why you are worried at all about anyone being lynched before L-1.

There's a good reason the suspicion is turning towards jason and rocky, but you haven't mentioned any. What's your read on them?

So far I have a Null-leaning Town read on Rocky. He’s generally casting a wide net with his questions and interactions which I like. I don’t see anything that reads as scum intent.

As for Jason I have a neutral read so far. I should have a pretty solid read on him based on in the next week or so. I’m not going to detail more specifically what I’m looking for so not to influence his behavior. I have a few Jason specific tells I’ve been very successful with in the past.

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If Matt didn't have votes behind him, what Rocky says implies that he wouldn't have voted him. Why jumping into a person who has several votes already just for the sake of giving him extra pressure? It must either be a VERY solid case, or an attempt at convincing town that he is scum. As of now I see nothing scummy on Matt, as the "lying" issue was cleared when we learned how is epicmafia play, and thus should be dropped by everyone.

I’m curious – in quoting Rocky where you responded here you specifically quoted his concluding line without referencing his large paragraph where he outlines his suspicions of Matt. Was that intentional?

Are you asserting bandwagonning someone a player has expressed suspicion of is scummy?

I disagree with your assessment that Matt hasn’t made some scummy plays. I for one dislike his repeated dodging of direct questions. It’s certainly doesn’t put him at the top of my list be he isn’t pure as the driven snow, as it were.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sisterman has replaced out of the game. TOGTFO holds his spot now and is not eligible for a prod.

Doh. That teaches me to directly rely on the recent activity button

This has been your MoI the IC is a moron moment of the day ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome DarkCoffeeJazz (who I will be calling Dark from here on out)!

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town points for unvoting rocky when he left to give replacement time to catch up

Why does he get Town points for unvoting for the replacement when the slot in question had only 1 vote at that point. Hardly the case where there was any threat of a accidental lynch of Rocky / Dark.

Mogri’s suspicions about the slot shouldn’t change just because someone replaced out. Scummy actions don’t depart with the player.

I am sorta on the fence about lynch all liers...mostly it is scum caught lying however I have known town to sometimes lie in what is called a gambit to bring out scum and make them more obivious or catch them red handed.

What do you think of SpacePope’s floating of the Lynch All Liars policy in regards to Matt given it was based on the following facts?

1. The confusion about Mods playing based on EM’s site norms
2. SpacePope incorrectly identified Matt as voting for the Mod

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I'm not entirely sure what's going on in your real life, but despite being an SE in this game, I felt you haven't posted as much as anyone else. I counted and apparently you have a whopping 6 posts.

At the point you posted this the thread had been open approximately 6 RL days.

1. Do you feel that posting the equivalent of once a Day isn’t contributing in a proper manner?
2. Why should Runner’s status as an SE have anything to do with a higher level of activity?

Magna, you also didn't random vote, unless I'm missing it. Again, this is just an observation. I don't know why you feel that anyone who thinks that RVS is devoid of information must be scum, however, when you yourself did not randomly vote. I do not count the vote on Rocky as random, as you were voting him for a specific game-related reason. If I am wrong about this observation, please enlighten me as to why.

You are incorrect in regards to your assessment. My vote for Rocky was random. While I couched it in regards to his belief that RVS does not provide information that certainly isn’t scummy. Many experienced players disagree with my perception. My ‘reasoning’ was no different than a person voting due to disliking an avatar. Read the sentences that precede my vote where I discuss the RVS stage and place my vote. The inference was that it was Random along with everyone elses. Had it been a non-RVS vote I would have specifically mentioned such. I can provide examples of other games where I do that if you would like.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Idle banter: If MoI's town win% is only 37.5 and his scum win% is 83.3, does that mean we're statistically ahead of the game to lynch him?

I really want to delve into this as there information to be gleaned from this.

1. You’ve later expressed that this is a joke after catching flack. My question on that front is the following – why are you floating ‘jokes’ after we have clearly exited the RVS stage of the game.
2. Why would you make a point you knew was invalid if you felt you would ‘pick up a vote or two’ as stated in 131?

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(IE: not realizing that I've answered the question he keeps mentioning, not realizing that sisterman had already been prodded, only interacting with two specific people.)

Let’s address each of these.

1. Not realizing you’d answered a question – you didn’t answer the question. Runner also called you out on this. You keep referring to post 52 as your answer. Let’s review my question and your post 52.

2. Why didn’t you being your first post with some Random Questions?

I'm making so many mistakes that I probably deserved to be lynched anyway.

I thought that, once again, moderators\IC always started with whatever it was that we were doing, regardless of it was an RVS or asking random questions.

Also, I will stand by the fact that I believe question asking can also put pressure on people and get the game going. I can't exactly show you examples, but basically, my line of logic is in the fact that scum is careful. In a lot of cases, they do what exactly they are told to do. If a clear player tells them to jump, they jump. I believe a lot can be found in those kind of things, but it's hard to present without actually doing it, and we already have an interesting conversation going.

Anyway, I've been unexpectedly busy and so far haven't been paying close attention to posts other then the ones I'm responding to. I'll review everything with a careful eye and point out contradictions\things I believe are scumtells tonight, probably.

This is the entirety of your response to me. Please quote the portion where you directly answer the question of why you didn’t begin your first post with Random Questions.

Also, you never answered my question about the bolded above - what mistakes did you make that were lynch worthy?

2. Regarding Sisterman – I had forgotten she was replaced (not prodded as you say above). I didn’t refer to the first post but used the ‘Activity Overview’ feature at the bottom right of the screen to see if anyone had exceeded 72 of inactivity. Sisterman had so I incorrectly requested a Prod.

3. Interacting with only two people – This is completely incorrect. I’ve addressed every player in the game I believe. That you chose to make this a point of concern when it is clearly incorrect is scummy.

I am going to slightly tone down my fos'ing on Jason as I realize that several of my points were slightly invalid.

There is not animal such as a point being ‘slightly’ invalid. It is either invalid or not. Your attempt to distance yourself from your pressure on Jason now that it seems to be dissipating is suspect. Especially since you feel the need to couch it in modifiers.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’ve addressed every player in the game I believe.

All except two. Myself & Sisterman. Not important, just saying .

Well then since Sisterman was replaced with TOGTFO it's just you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Short answer: really crappy week at work. Sorry for blowing off steam in a way that affects the game.

I'll post more tomorrow.

If this is your response to my questions at 137 then I feel justified in my vote.

There are several players who aren't voting right now. Presumably, they all have suspicions as well. I don't see what the problem is here.

The reason I don't currently have a vote on you is that I'm trying to pin down a read. Your play thus far has been erratic finger-pointing based on flawed logic (examples earlier in this post!). I would either call that scummy or just plain bad play, and while I'd like to think that your experience is sufficient to rule out bad play, it's a leap I'm not comfortable making at this time. If you really want me to put a vote on you, though, I will

At this point in the Day you shouldn’t have any reason not to be voting your ‘Number 1 suspect’, regardless if your read isn’t fully formed yet. Your use of that phrase indicates you have some feeling that Jason is scum.

In not voting you are showing signs of Cognitive Dissoanance, in this case your actions (not voting for a suspect) do not align with your words (Jason is your number 1 suspect).

I’ve bolded the age old “Everybody else is doing it" tell.

As for Rocky/DCJ: Yes, the players have swapped and not the roles, but DCJ's play has been more townish than Rocky's had been IMO.

You unvoted that slot (Post 105) before Dark had made a single game post (his first was at 106). How could DCJ’s play have been more Townish before he even posted? This looks like an attempt to produce a retro-active explanation.

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I don't think I'm ever going to figure you out, Mogri.
*sigh*

Please explain the game impact of this. Are you suggesting that you will not be able to read Mogri’s alignment based on his posts?

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So you weren't voting him to pressure him but you were pressuring him with regular words instead? This is somewhat confusing... unsettling, actually.

If you think my explaining that I feel RVS can contain information to Rocky is pressure, then yes. I thought it was fairly clear that the line of discussion was pure game theory and was part of my duties as IC.

Please explain what unsettling means in context. Is it scummy?

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@Runner and SpacePope

– Who do you think is scum? At this stage of the game I would expect you would have developed enough of a read to vote someone.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I thought that, once again, moderators\IC always started with whatever it was that we were doing, regardless of it was an RVS or asking random questions.

^That looks like a pretty clear answer to me, for the record. Sorry if it didn't catch your eye.

I need an emoticon for pulling out your own hair.

My question, once again, had NOTHING to do with the Mods / ICs. You are neither. I’m going to ask you directly one more time.

Why didn’t you personally open your first post with Random Questions?

I'm actually not sure if I ever directly answered this, but the mistakes come in with the answer to the previous question. I thought that the mods were in this game and started out the stuff, basically.

You believe those mistakes were worthy of you being lynched?

I found that they might not apply here.

Again you are using what I like to call weasel-working … in this case using ‘might’ which leaves all possibilities open. Again either the tells don’t work here (and are invalid) or they still hold up regardless of source (in which case they are valid).

[MagnaofIllusion]

@SpacePope

– I see you are fleshing out reads. If you have two suspects the time to keep them close to the vest has long past. You can further develop your evidence but you need to have your suspicions and thoughts open in thread for everyone to consider and analyse.

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You keep using that phrase. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Moreover, suspecting Jason and not voting for him is not self-contradictory, in the same way that saying scum are cautious and saying I am cautious are not contradictory.

I really can't tell if you guys are THIS bad at logic or if you're doing it on purpose.

1. Linking to what is effectively a dictionary definition of a term that ignores that Mafiascum has a specific usage of the term isn’t a valid defense.
2. It is absolutely contradictory. You are saying Jason is your number 1 suspect yet aren’t voting him because you need to solidify a read.
3. The bolded is a classic example of rhetoric. Using insulting language as a means to support your statement isn’t Pro-Town at all.

Again, I question your logic here. It is impossible for everyone else who is doing it to be scum.

No-one suggested everyone is scum. This is straw-manning, which for those who don’t know, is taking a non-esstential part of an argument, attempting to discredit it and then concluding the whole argument is invalid.

Again your non-voting I find scummy. Your response, which was “Others aren’t voting either”, doesn’t address the differing reasons for the lack of votes.

Where did I say that DCJ was townish before he posted? Are you referring to my unvote? I did not unvote because DCJ looks townish.

Let’s review your statement in full context–

As for Rocky/DCJ: Yes, the players have swapped and not the roles, but DCJ's play has been more townish than Rocky's had been IMO. A very insightful recap post plus conservative play versus Rocky's very aggressive playstyle. I'll be keeping my eye on DCJ because it's possible he's keeping a low profile to lose some of the residual suspicion from Rocky's play, but for now, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You unvoted simply because of the replacement. That is not in doubt. Had you unvoted after Dark had made posts that seemed Townish I could understand not having an active vote. But you unvoted before hand and have had an inactive vote since (until you finally voted for Jason due to pressure).

Your suspicion of Rocky was “that he put someone at L-2” for what you believed were poor reasoning. You didn’t hesitate at all to vote. Yet it takes consistent pointing out that you refuse to vote Jason, your Number 1 suspect, for you to do so. Your long ‘list’ at 164 seems to indicate you had plenty of reason to do so. I don’t see any consistency in your behavior.

#57: MoI says that matt's "contradiction" is indicative of cognitive dissonance, which is not true even for MoI's definition of the term. Bad logic count: 3

Incorrect. Project has stated repeatedly that Mafia are more likely to behave in a manner that is “careful and precise”. Ostensibly Project knows he is Town. Thus when he is behaving in a manner that is consistent with a scum tell in his book it shows that either

1. The tell isn’t likely accurate.
2. He doesn’t actually believe the words he is writing.

Given the context of his posts I’m more inclined to fall to 2 over 1.

But once again … labelling things with negative language without explaining why they are such is rhetoric. And saying 'it's stupid / it's bad logic / it's makes no sense' isn't explaining.

There's a pretty clear pattern here: Jason and MoI tunneling matt and me. Two IC-level players employing fallacies to tunnel other players as early as turn two

Let’s see … you ignore every other interaction and question I make in the false attempt to portray my play as tunnelling. Do you know what tunnelling is?

Tunnelling is focusing solely on one player and ignoring every other player. I’m clearly not doing that.

Should I not be allowed to question players based on their play simply because they are not IC / SE?

Lastly regarding attacking my reads

–

What are your reads on SpacePope, Runner, TOGTFO, and Zengar? I don’t see them.
Other than saying Dark is more Town than Rocky and attacking myself and Jason for having suspicion of you I don’t see anything significant from you on many players.

I’ve stated I will have a good read on Jason based on observing his play and knowing his meta. You don’t have to like that but asserting that it is scummy is at best disingenuous. Especially since you are more or less pulling the "Poor little me being picked on by the big, mean bullies" card.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have no evidence to suggest that your usage is not specific to you. This is possibly a false attribution fallacy.

Stating that something isn’t on the Wiki means it isn’t widely used on MafiaScum is your own personal use of the “Appeal to Authority”. The Wiki isn’t comprehensive and is freely editable so using it as the Gold standard of evidence is invalid.

Once again you are trying to discredit the use of a specific term as opposed to addressing the logical scum mentality shown in your play which for the record is your inconsitent standards for voting and Cognitive Dissonance you showed regarding Jason.

This is a false dilemma fallacy. You are ignoring the possibility of not having a sufficient read on anyone to place a vote. The fact that Jason was my top suspect does not automatically make him suspect enough to vote.

No, it isn’t a false dichotomy. As I addressed you had sufficient reason to vote Rocky on a small non-tell earlier. Yet you didn’t have sufficent reasons to vote Jason, especially in light of your large post with ‘evidence’? That doesn’t compute.

Because you said so? This is essentially an appeal to authority, where you are the authority.

Use of rhetoric in place of facts is scum-motivated play. Trying to say I’m appealing to authority by explaining that isn’t correct.

This is the fallacy of affirming the consequent, one of the most well-known and basic logical fallacies.

Argument: If a player is scum, he will play cautiously. Matt is playing cautiously, therefore he is scum.
Problem: Matt does not need to be scum in order to play cautiously.

Once again a Strawman. I’ve never argued that Matt is scum because he is playing cautiously. You are simply cherry picking fallacies in an attempt to undermine my acccusations against you.

Matt may be scum not for playing cautiously but for stating that scum always play that way when he should, if Town, know that it isn’t a valid argument.

On the other hand, I see some strong consistency in your behavior. You jump on me when I place a vote, you jump on me when I don't place a vote.

Speaking of deflections … you don’t address the inconsistency in your behavior but attack me again. You can’t justify your behavior so you try to turn it on me. Don’t expect it to work.

Not only are you deflecting, you are also dodging the question

Are you choosing not to read? You once again cherry picked the part of the quote that you thought might bolster your argument. Bravo. As is said ... before the end of the Day I will have a solid read on Jason.

This doesn't even begin to answer the question of why you and Jason have been talking to everyone except each other.

Now you’ve just pulled a 180. In your previous posts you attack me for tunnelling you and Projectmatt. That by definition means I’m ignoring everyone else.

Yet suddenly I’m interacting with everyone but Jason.

Which behavior am I doing again? Feel free to decide so I can address it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm going to take a step back from trading back and forth with Mogri at this point. I think I've made my point clearly about his focus on semantics as opposed to actual scum motivation. Runner and Dark's points make it worthwhile taking a direct break as all three can't possibly be scum.

At this stage I want to see SpacePope's developed suspicions.

@Runner

- you still do not have a vote or any significant suspicions on record? Who is scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

ATTENTION

- Mogri is at L-1. Another vote for him will result in a lynch and end the day.

No-one should vote Mogri without stating their intention to do so and allowing him to claim.

I'll have more to say in a bit once I get April 18th deadline stuff cleaned up on my end.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well that's all well and good, MOI, but this is assuming he hasn't given up and quit the game already without telling us. I'm really getting sick of all the replacements, tbh.

If that's the case then he'll likely have to be hammered by deadline to avoid a no-lynch.

I understand your frustration at replacements but that is no reason to not follow site norms. Asking for a claim before hammering when someone is at L-1 is well established for a reason - it helps to prevent bad hammers.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm still here.

It sounds like I've got four different votes on me for four different reasons. Can you four explain your votes?

Quite frankly - I'm not going to repeat my reasoning. I've made it clear in thread and we've been round and round about it. Unless you have something new to add to the discussion I'm not really interested in rehashing things. I'm not trying to convince you that you are scum. Others have clearly indicated that they've seen enough of the argument.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Mogri should claim but I will not be hammering on him. I do not see him as mafia, at least not at this point. I find others more likely scum.

No, he absolutely should not claim if no-one indicates intent to hammer. If he does not receive a 5th vote by deadline he will not be lynched. There is no Pro-Town reason to claim, if Town, and possibly narrow down the pool of potential Town Power Roles.

Aside from Projectmatt, where you vote currently is, who do you think is scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Me stating I dont plan on hammering does not mean that the other three people will not. I doubt that in the time we have left we will find another lynch, especially since this game has moved into super slow mo. I would prefer a claim before someone hammers.

Whether we have ‘time’ to find another lynch or not isn’t relevant to whether Mogri should claim. You’ve stated you aren’t going to hammer. So has Project.

That leaves Runner and Jerako as the only players who may choose to ask for a claim. If neither one has any intention to hammer Mogri then him claiming pre-emptively simply helps out the Mafia.

--

I find it pretty funny how quickly the wagon kind of fell on Mogri. I could be completely wrong at this point, but I'm pretty sure that if somebody hammers at the point, Mogri will flip town.

Please explain how you think the wagon on Mogri is “quick”. Here are the dates for each vote on Mogri –

MoI – Post 68, April 5th (page 3)
Jason – Post 129, April 8th (page 6)
Dark – Post 159, April 12th (page 7)
Space Pope – Post 199, April 18th (page 8)

There are 13 days separating the first vote to the last on the current wagon. The smallest gap between votes is 3 RL days. I’m curious to see your thoughts on this.

Also, MOI, you completely ignored my question on the previous page, please answer it.

You are correct. I did. Just as I did when Mogri first started asking about it. I wanted as long as possible to get a sense of Jason’s play here. I’m currently neutral leaning scum on him. The hallmark of Jason’s scum play is passivity. Scum Jason doesn’t build cases or attack people and is content to play defense and coast. Early on in the Day Jason was actively questioning players and being pro-active. However since he voted for Mogri he’s gone into a much less active pattern. He’s been content to post that he’s catching up and engaged only Mogri. While the game isn’t very fast-pased the fact that he’s slowed considerably in his play is suspect.

I will say this – if Mogri is scum Jason is Town. The chances of scum partners bussing so early on a wagon (he was the second vote) is almost zero in a Newbie game.

--

@SpacePope

– I’ll second (or third) the request for you to show where Mogri was establishing links to Zengar.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If MoI is indeed scum, then this was an excellent play on his part. You'll notice he made no attempt to address or deny the fact that the question was loaded.

Bullshit. I addressed this back when we discussed it. I explained quite clearly what I thought to be a Town response.

This is just another example of you either misrepresenting the situation or plain outright lying.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Is there anyone here who actually would have been fine with a no lynch today?

This is a good question. I do not.

@Everyone who has yet to answer

– in your next post please indicate if you would accept a No-Lynch.

Mogri has indicated he does not support a no-lynch.

--

To MoI, I repeat the question and further ask, "If I am scummy for that action, what does that say about you?"

Your question is – why haven’t I talked to Jason? The answer is simply this – I don’t feel the need to interrogate Jason Day 1 to get a solid read on him. I would think that would have been self explanatory based on my response to Project.

Does it make me scummy? If you want to make that case I’ll not dispute that I was specifically not answering your question. It was for a reason … to help cement my read on Jason.

That said, Jerako, please don't hammer; we don't have long left today and

if I don't misunderstand, I die either way at deadline.

In the meantime, there's some good discussion going on right now.

The bolded is an example of why I, in my first post, made a point of expressly asking everyone to read the rules. Per the Mod’s ruleset –

Each day the town decides on a lynch. You will require one half of the living players plus one in order to achieve a lynching majority. I will go out of my way to make sure you are aware of this number. Be aware that you must achieve this threshold for a lynch, even at deadline. (No lynch will occur at deadline if there's no majority.)

If five votes for a player are not reached by deadline a no-lynch will occur.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Fair enough... What does it say about Jason, though, that he hasn't gotten around to answering?

Do you not read the thread? I’m seriously asking because I gave my read on Jason back at post 218 –

You are correct. I did. Just as I did when Mogri first started asking about it. I wanted as long as possible to get a sense of Jason’s play here. I’m currently neutral leaning scum on him. The hallmark of Jason’s scum play is passivity. Scum Jason doesn’t build cases or attack people and is content to play defense and coast. Early on in the Day Jason was actively questioning players and being pro-active. However since he voted for Mogri he’s gone into a much less active pattern. He’s been content to post that he’s catching up and engaged only Mogri. While the game isn’t very fast-pased the fact that he’s slowed considerably in his play is suspect.

I will say this – if Mogri is scum Jason is Town. The chances of scum partners bussing so early on a wagon (he was the second vote) is almost zero in a Newbie game.

This points to one of my problems with you – lack of thread awareness. If you were Town and reading the thread looking for content you certainly should have seen this. Scum, meanwhile, have motivation to pick out quotes and statements that they can use to craft ‘cases’ because they don’t need to actually scum-hunt. They have all the information.

--

@Jason

– now that I’ve had time to make a read on you I have questions –

1. Who would be your second and third suspects if Mogri is Town? Why?
2. Please explain why you have a series of posts from ISO 30 to ISO 33 where you basically state multiple times you are ‘catching up’ but have no significant posts after that with any content. Your posts after ISO 33 are all little pot-shots and comments to Mogri.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm not asking about your read on Jason - not specifically. I'm asking specifically about Jason's avoidance of that particular question. Again, he's claiming to have had interactions with you when he has not. He is also now claiming that he has answered the question when he has not.

Ok, having gone back and looked at your original statement and I see that I misread it.

I think his not answering is part and parcel of his general sliding play and thus suspect.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Mogri, you are being extremely anti-town right now. By not claiming you are delaying the game. It is obvious that we as a town intend to lynch you so please let us know

now

if that is a mistake. You are practically claiming a PR which is making me nervous.

Actually if he was soft-claiming a Town PR as Town he probably would have claimed the second Jerako indicated he would hammer. It allows for more time to find another lynch, which is critical with such little time left.

In all likelyhood he is either scum waiting to fake-claim at the last moment to put Town in a bad position or a Vanilla Townie, where his claim would not matter for purposes of avoiding a lynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Here is the post I was making when Zach locked the thread. I think it is important to have it out there -

Game Theory Question: Is there another acceptable reason?

In a Newbie game? No, there really isn’t any acceptable reason Day 1 to no lynch. Even a Cop / Doc claim so close to deadline shouldn’t drive one for the reasons I mentioned earlier.


--

So, I think that hammering was silly, along with this entire lynch. After Mog's recent posts, I am 100% sure that he's going to flip a vanilla townie.

I honestly am going to be pretty sad if Jason and Mogri both flip town, but I fully intend to lynch Jason tomorrow.

Two things both me about this post.

1. The certainty that Project has that Mogri is Town. Given that 5 players thought Mogri was playing in a scummy enough manner to warrant a vote. There is nothing ‘obvious’ about him being Town. If Mogri does flip Town then this reads as a grab for ‘Town cred’ in his reads.
2. Why, if he was so sure that Mogri was Town, wasn’t Project pushing his claimed number 1 suspect Jason? As of the last vote count Project’s vote was idle while Jason had two votes (Jerako and Mogri). Putting a third vote on Jason would have made the alternate wagon possibly viable even with deadline fast approaching. What I’m seeing is words that say “Mogri is a bad lynch, lynch Jason” combined with player which does nothing to factiliate that movement to Jason.

@Project

: putting aside your assuredness about Mogri – why didn’t you actually vote for Jason today

--

My reads going into Night 1 –

Given we are about to go to Night I’m going to leave you with my reads for each possible alignment flip of Mogri to be sure they aren’t lost if I end up dead.

If Mogri flips Town please look at the following players –

1. Jason – as I’ve stated he’s been coasting since he voted Mogri and that was the dominant wagon. I’m also getting a strong feeling he’s attempting to buddy me with some of the parroting and “Hey MoI I agree with you” statements I am seeing.
2. Project – above puts a cap on my thoughts
3. Runner – He’s pretty much coasted in a manner similar to Jason, albeit with little pressure on him. Add in that he hasn’t cast a significant non-RVS vote all Day.

If Mogri flips Scum please look at the following players –

1. SpacePope – His 4th vote on Mogri came out of right field. Given Mogri looked to be the only strong viable wagon at that point I’d suspect a possible bus in that position if there is one.

I really don’t have much in the way of strong feelings about anyone else if he flips scum. I’d say to look at someone strongly pushing an alternate wagon, especially after the vote by DarkCoffee, but there really isn’t anyone doing so. TOGTFO has a vote on Matt but hardly pushed it, Jerako’s slot had a vote on Jason that was a holdover from early in the day as Zengar. Runner and Project didn’t push other wagons at all.

My last tidbit is this – as said earlier if Mogri is scum Jason is confirmed Town. Too much cross-fire for a scum team Day 1, supplemented by Jason’s very early position on the Mogri wagon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First off – welcome Stefunny …

--

VOTE: Jason

With Mogri’s flip as shown above I don’t feel he is likely Town given his scum meta and buddying that went on yesterday.

@Project

– I asked you a question in my aborted end of Day 1 post I just made. Please answer it.

--

Wagon Game Theory Time –

I’m a big believer in Wagon Analysis in hunting scum. Here is the final vote-count from yesterday

Mogri

- 5 (MagnaofIllusion, JasonT1981,

Darkcoffeejazz

, Space Pope, Jerako)
JasonT1981 - 1 (

Mogri

)
projectmatt - 1 (TOGTFO)

Not voting: (runner, projectmatt)

I’ve colored blue the players who are now confirmed Town via Mod.

Generally in Newbie games a Day 1 mislynch has at least one scum on it. It does happen that there are no scum mislynch wagons but those are usually fairly rare (less than 10% of the time) and my reads don’t support it.

I’m guessing that we are in a 1 scum on 1 scum off scenario based strongly on the fact that the Mafia was willing to make their NK from on the wagon in DarkCoffee.

Thus I suspect that there is one scum in each of the following pools –

Jason SpacePope, Jerako – On the wagon
TOGTFO, Stefunny (was runner), project – Off the wagon

My on-the-wagon bet is Jason. I’ll be looking at interactions later to see who I think is the most likely off-the-wagon IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOI... as scum,

what benefit would I get out of pushing someone (as scum) I knew was town on day 1?

surely as scum I would have known I would be drawing heat right off the bat day 2?

I've bolded the portion that makes absolutely no sense. Scum of course know everyone who is Town Day 1 -- they know their buddies. The benefit is clear - mislynching Town.

The rest of you statement here is WIFOM. Scum would do it if they thought an argument like yours would buy them credibility Day 2.

That said the facts haven't changed - you hopped on Mogri's wagon and coasted the rest of the Day. After you voted Mogri you other 'scum-reads' basically disappear and your only interactions are to attack / debate Mogri and buddy up to me.

Jason

- who is scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

However Runner and Matt are my main suspects for scum now.

Why am I not that surprised that your scum list is exactly mine (from my first post of the game) minus you …

--

I was going to make a case on you, as we are in a LYLO situation, and I wanted to be completely sure, but hey, if you wanna play it like that.

How are we in LYLO?

We have 7 players alive and 2 remaining scum. Newbie games (or at least F-11 setup games) don’t hit LYLO til Day 3 at the earliest.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI... I was at Matt from the start of game D1.

Oh I don’t doubt that. Or at least you appeared to be at him. Odd that once you shifted over to Mogri that your Project ‘hate’ suddenly disappeared.

And this doesn’t explain where your Stefunny / Runner suspicion suddenly germinated from.

Complete and utter OMGUS and misrep!

Speaking of misrepresentations – this is a prime example. OMGUS is when someone reply votes you for no other reason than you voted them first. Clearly Project isn’t doing that since he indicated he would be building a case but intended to vote you when he did.

--

1) Whenever someone says xxx is town near the hammer, but do not present an alternative, I find it very scummy.

Agreed.

Mogri- Why are you letting Matt off the hook for 1)? His answer was that it was a mistake. Do you find it more than likely that he forgot? Is sheeping scummier than distancing from a mislynch?

I’m going to make a logical leap and assume this is addressed to me since Mogri is dead. I’m not sure if you are addressing 1) in your own post or my first question directed to Project. In either case the answer is the same – I’m not letting him off the hook. I have strong concerns about Project’s play.

--

And I did the math wrong, I thought we didn't have another ML. In this case, I would like to lynch you badly.

I’d like you to explain the process by which you did the math. I’m starting to suspect you tripped one of my secret scum-tells.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In the Jason versus Project debate that has been recently dominating the thread I have to say that Jason seems to have the more solid arguments in the exchange.

@Jerako, TOGTFO

– you both need to make some sort of solid post outlining you scum suspect soon.

--

MOI- Yes, I meant you. Sorry 'bout that. You didn't answer which of the two you felt would be scummier. You say you have strong concerns (infering that you mean you think he could be scum?). Not very solid, whereas you are willing to vote Jason for sheeping. I'm just curious as to why you are voting Jason over Matt.

You asked a generic question about which ‘tell’ is scummier. I didn’t answer because there is no inherent ‘scumminess’ chain for tells. I’m not deriving my vote on Jason just for sheeping. That should be clear from my statements today and yesterday. Context and the specifics of any 'tell' are just as important as the tell itself.

I think my first post of the day made clear that Project was one of my three top scum reads along with Jason and Stefunny for the reasons indicated. If you didn’t see that clearly stated I think you now can go back and review.

@SpacePope

– Is your suspicion of TOGTFO, Jerako and Stefunny solely based on lack of activity or do you have other things you find suspect?

--

I'll actually admit that I'm not too keen on my other reads yet, but the blindest guess I have would be Space Pope\MOI if Jason flips scum.. (which is what I desperately need.)

Why do you desperately need Jason to flip scum?

Also Project you never (that I can see) answered my question about describing your thought process on how this was LYLO. Please do so in your next post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI- I know, I like asking questions I already know You haven't unvoted Jason yet, which is what I would expect since you are "siding" with Jason a bit more. Also, I never said the less active are scummy, just that they need to post more. It would be easy for scum to hide in the background

Make no mistake - just because I think Jason is doing a better job of arguing with Project doesn't mean I don't think he's scum. He just is making better and more cogent points.

Notice that he's once again fixated on ONE player (this time Project) and that his 'suspicion' of Stefunny is just window dressing. He hasn't addressed her once.

He's still playing quite clearly to his scum meta.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Question: Does the fact that Jason frequently change personalities seem odd to you?

I have no idea what you are talking about. Change of personalities?

I actually did answer that question, but you seemed to have missed it. Allow me to quote my response from 295. I'd also appreciate it if you answered my question.

Your answer doesn’t make sense which is why I wanted further details.

What do you mean by more players and more Mafia than you remembered?

Also, care to voice these concerns you have over my playing?

I voiced my concerns right out of the gate today. You responded to them. I’m not particularly sold on your answers at the present time.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA for usual family weekend duties from today at 4PM EST and will be back Monday morning.

At this point I’m going to make my focus review of Day 1 for TOGTFO, Jerako and Stefunny. Not committing to a vote by this part of today is suspect. All three to varying degrees are not even willing to commit to supportable reads on more than 1 or 2 players.

@Stefunny

– Please justify your lack of scum-hunting and lack of vote given that your slot hasn’t placed a vote outside of RVS.

@Jerako

– Say for the sake of argument that Jason versus Project is a Town on Town affair. Who would be your top two suspects outside of them?

@TOGTFO

– In your next post I expect to see reasoning why SpacePope is at the top of your scum list and reasons why you aren’t voting him.

--

It was an important issue I brought up on my PBP analysis. Jason is happy, apologetic and sweet for one moment, then basically an aggressive madman for the next.

I don’t see this a valid observation at all. You don’t have to be an insulting jerk to play aggressively in Mafia. Aggressive pursuit of your suspect doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play cordially and apologize if you made a mistake.

--

My suspicions on Jason haven't changed in the slightest. If anything, the way he's making a coherent, sensible argument now against matt worries me more. He's clearly intelligent enough to realize that some of the things he was saying D1 were ridiculous.

If Jason is still your number 1 suspect why aren’t you voting for him?

-

*Prod dodge*

I am not being very helpful I know. Sorry. I am going to get my reads out I just need time to be able to focus on this.

If you don’t have time to play the game I’d suggest you replace out. It’s a disservice to your win condition to play as you have been if you are Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Got a guilty result, w00t! It's pretty late for me so we'll lynch them tomorrow.

Too tired to post a name? Yeah, don’t bother wasting our time. You know very well if there is a Doc out there you should not possibly have a result given you claimed.

I’m putting an end to this farce right now –

I’m the

actual Town Cop

. Thread was closed by the time I had time to read the thread after Jason got put at L-1 and tried to role-fish.

N1

– I investigated Jason. Obv results are obv and why I came out firing directly at him Day 2.

N2

– Innocent on Stefunny.

@SpacePope

– Now would be a good time to explain why I shouldn’t vote for you since I know you are fake-claiming.

ATTENTION POTENTIAL DOC – DO NOT OUT YOURSELF!!!!

As it stands now we have 5 Town players alive and 1 Mafia.

My results narrow the field of the possible last Mafian to TOGTFO, SpacePope, Project and Jerako. One of those players should be lynched today.

Worst case scenario we go to Day 4 with 4 alive. I’ll have another result to bring forward (assuming I live) Day 4 which will mean the pool of lynchable players is down to 2. Proper play is to No Lynch and potentially get another investigation result.

TL: DR Summary

– Potential Doc should only out himself if run up at lynch or Day 5 if there is any ambiguity about your alignment.

More including VC analysis later today or tomorrow when I have more time. Lots of active games going right now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

1) Yes I did fake claim. I was reaction fishing as I thought Jason was town. Two cops would make scum act weird. Great reaction by Jason, lawl.

Um this doesn’t make much sense, at least the reaction fishing part. Had Jason been Town Cop the logical reaction would to immediately vote you as counter-claiming scum. Because Town has no reason to counter-claim if they are Vanilla.

What would have been your reaction had Jason voted for you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have some thoughts but want to see Jerako's response to everything before I continue.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well until Jerako decides to make himself available I’m going to do some VC analysis to pass the time.

Day 1 Ending Vote Count

–

Mogri

- 5 (MagnaofIllusion,

JasonT1981

,

Darkcoffeejazz

, Space Pope, Jerako)

JasonT1981

- 1 (

Mogri

)
projectmatt - 1 (TOGTFO)

Not voting: (

Stefunny

, projectmatt)

Day 2 Ending Vote Count

–

JasonT1981

- 4 (MagnaofIllusion, projectmatt, Jerako,

JasonT1981

)

Not voting (TOGTFO,

Stefunny

, Space Pope)

First Day Analysis

:

We now know at least one Mafian was on the Mogri lynch – JasonT. I find this tends to make both SpacePope and Jerako less likely to be his partner. Double Mafia members on the Day 1 lynch are rare.

Which means my ‘suspect’ pool from the non-Day 1 voters is Projectmatt and TOGTFO.

Second Day Analysis

:

Jason’s behavior upon the SpacePope counter-claim and immediate self-hammer tells me he wanted to cut of discussion as fast as possible. This is usually done to protect a partner who is not currently voting him. This leads me to a Day 2 pool of TOGTFO and Space Pope.

Given this quick analysis and what I have seen my gut my ordered list of preferred lynches of all non-Confirmed players is –

TOGTFO – Weak all around play combined with his position at the end of each Day makes him my Top suspect.

Jerako – His interactions with Jason could clearly be distancing given the reservation he had with actually voting Jason Day 2.

SpacePope – Remote possibility that he might have tried a Double Gambit with Jason (for reasons I will not get into right now). His position on Day 2 wagon is the only other element I see as negative.

ProjectMatt – Positioning Day 1 is not positive but I feel his push and interactions with Jason read as solidly Town. Would be my last resort choice, which I don’t think we have any chance of reaching.

We effectively have two lynches to hit the last scum.

My preference would be TOGTFO today. So I’m going to vote that way until Jerako shows up to provide some input.

VOTE: TOGTFO

[MagnaofIllusion]

Mod - I'll be V/LA from today at 3pm EST until Monday for normal weekend family duties.

Jerako's failure to appear has really stalled out the game. Until he provides a response / insight we are more or less at standstill.

I'm hesitant to vote for him simply to move the process along. That's not Pro-Town at this point with the time we have left in the day.

[MagnaofIllusion]

i understand how stupid it may be that i analyzed myself, i didn't check the OP and thought i was the only replacement haha..

anyways, sure.

I'll be frank Para ... time is not on your side. More people seem to be leaning your slot as Jason's partner as opposed to TOGTFO. You need to put together a concise post explaining why you aren't the best lynch today soon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

that is of course if we aren't in MYLO, then you could just NL and investigate him, he backs up Jason that one time and was on matt for the longest time.

if LYLO, then i guess i'll have to present an arguement.

Today is neither MYLO or LYLO.

There are 6 alive. Worst case we have two lynches to hit the last scum. Not lynching today doesn't likely help.

@Stefunny

- Since Para has claimed VT I'm ok with lynching him over TOGTFO if you concur.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Unvote

Vote: Para

We shouldn't make anyone else claim today so the doc has more room to hide.

Agreed with this on the theory we actually have Doc.

Notes to tomorrow (if this lynch doesn't end the game) - Tomorrow we are in MYLO. If the Doc (assuming we have one) doesn't die overnight a Mass-claim should be able to cement the game. If for some reason I end up dead do not immediately hang TOGTFO. I want SpacePope to be looked at first. Because the only reason I die is if there isn't a Scum-Roleblocker. In which case SpacePope and Jason pulled a double-gambit and Non-killed to make sure a Doc look like a certainty. I think that is highly unlikely but my death puts the possibility in play.

UNVOTE: TOGTFO
VOTE: Para

[MagnaofIllusion]

First step is first - very predictiably I was role-blocked last night and thus got no result from my investigation of TOGTFO.

Four alive ... three to lynch.

We have two paths we can follow -

1. Mass claim (which I favor based on what I feel is a predictable result from option 2) and lynch.
2. No lynch with no claiming. This will get us down to a three person LYLO.

I support 1 for reasons that I will not discuss until we have a majority agreement (3 players) that it is the correct way to go.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well since Space Pope has jumped the gun starting the process ( I had an order in mind ) let's continue.

I suggest the remaining claims be in the following order -

TOGTFO
ProjectMatt

Claims already established -

MoI - Cop, Investigated Jason N1, Stefunny N2, and TOGTFO N3 (blocked)
SpacePope - VT

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll comment after Project finished the Mass-claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok … Mass claim is done.

I know there is a role-blocker. Thus the set-up is 1 scum 1 RB versus Cop, Doc and Townies.

Matt must be telling the truth. He wasn’t counterclaimed. He’s 100% clear to me.

So that leaves SpacePope or TOGTFO as the remaining scum.

I’m inclined for the reasons I stated yesterday to vote TOGTFO. His behavior today (immediately voting SpacePope before Mass claim was finished and his ”I’ll be unhappy if you are the Doc” statement) reads as caught scum who knows he has to go after the other VT claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we believe that Space Pope is scum, we believe that the mafia NK'D the night Jason died. Just pointing that out.

I agree. And I find that a very hard thing to believe given the existence of a Role-blocker. Scum would be using a double gambit on the risk that they were in a Zero Town PR game as opposed to a Two Town PR game.

That's a huge risk to take.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I will be V/LA from today at 4pm EST until Monday for my regular family duties.

At this stage I’m going to re-read ISOs of TOGTFO and SpacePope. Unless I see something that just jumps out at me I’ll likely place my vote Monday for TOGTFO.

--

This would have been so much easier if MOI had just investigated the person who claimed cop. Obviously you had doubts of him being scum, why not make sure?

Because his counter-claim on Jason may have been suspect but didn’t make a lot of sense given how Jason immediately self-hammered. Scum only self-hammer to quick end discussions and protect partners from having to comment. I also doubt SpacePope would have been so quick to counter if he was Jason’s partner.

It is one of the reasons I went after those I called low profile with my investigation. Because that pool was much more likely to yield scum, IMO.

@TOGTFO

– I’d like you to explain why you immediately voted SpacePope without the completion of the mass-claim. Furthermore I’d like you to explain why your reaction to SpacePope’s “I’ve got more to say post” was “It better not be that you are the Doc”

[MagnaofIllusion]

@SpacePope- MOI and ProjectMatt are confirmed town. There is no way one of them would lie for the other as town since there is only one scum left. Your only option is to put pressure on me.

He’s later backed off this because SpacePope has laid out why from T’s perspective we are both not confirmed. But the underlying psychological tell is valid – he knows we are both confirmed because he knows the set-up.

But to play devil's advocate, me being scum would mean that I too have to be a roleblocker. Does it not strike anyone as odd that I would try to kill SpacePope when I know full well that there is a doctor among us? Instead, I would block him and try to shoot for the doctor. Just getting that out there...

Yes, I thought it was odd too when the Day broke. Which is why I suspected SpacePope of No-Killing as a Goon. But that went out the door when I got RBed N3. Of course you could have tried to kill the Cop and block the Doc if you had a good Doc read. All in all this is a bit of WIFOM.

--

First question, the mafia would be aware of the setup they are in, yes?

Dons IC Hat –

The explanations given here are correct. Scum are not told which of the set-ups they are playing in during Newbie games.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI- How about you? You seem to be relying on my CC'd as the reason why I'm not scum and then working from there to figure TOGTFO as scum. Have you read ISOs?

That’s not an accurate assessment of how I have my read on you as Town. I’ll give you the overview of how I got to my read.

Night 2 / Day 3 I was had you as a possible Partner for Jason. You CCed him while not actually being the Cop. The lack of Nightkill was reasonably possible for Scum hoping to fake a Doc protect.

That changed N3 when I got role-blocked. At that point I knew that we had a Doc in the set-up and the chances that you were double-gambitting dropped dramatically. Not to absolute zero but close enough.

Now fast forward to today’s Mass claim. Project’s uncounterclaimed Doc claim to me 100% confirms him. It also confirms you via the protect.

--

I have reviewed everyone's ISO and based on the above don’t see any reason to hold off voting any longer. I can’t see my vote changing unless something drastic (like Project claiming he faked the Doc claim) happens.

TOGTFO looked like the most likely Jason parter before based on VC analysis and day-play. That hasn't changed at all based on today's posting.

VOTE: TOGTFO

[MagnaofIllusion]

And that's the hammer ....

GG everyone. Town victory is sweet.

I'm fairly impressed with everone taking their time in MYLO after the decision to lynch today.

I'll have my other official IC comments after Zach finalizes our Victory.

Good effort TOGTFO - altough you stumbled at the start of today I think you did the best job you could with recovering. Hopefully it will be a good learning experience for your next round as scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks to Zach for running a smooth and entertaining game. Good work.

I'll be posting full thoughts, both from an IC and a Mafia perspective, later when I have time to reflect.

I have no issues with the Mafia QT being posted.

I will just say one thing

- the look on my face when Day 3 opened with no death would have been priceless to capture. SpacePope's gambit caught me completely off-guard.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thoughts on the game

…

Overall I don’t have too much in the way of constructive criticism to give. Town played overall a pretty good game. Certainly at a higher level than I have seen in other Newbie games I’ve played in (an this only applies to the true Newbies … SEs are exempt from this pool that I am using to judge).

Specific advice / thoughts I can give

–

TOGTFO / Jerako

– The biggest thing I see that you both shared as an area of improvement is activity. Day 3 was critical to the success of Town to have an active Townset. More activity is better, all things being equal.

TOGTFO

– Your play Day 4 really was good. You were willing to open your eyes and re-assess when things didn’t make sense. You, however, needed to fight harder. As Town you know that your mislynch spells a loss for Town. Even if it was a doomed effort you should have fought harder to get either SpacePope or myself lynched.

Mogri

– If you are still around reading this … you played a good game from an instinct basis. You properly picked up on Jason and my partnership Day 1. If anything you need to hone your case building skills. Your manner of presenting how everyone was wrong in suspecting you was a little too condescending. Listing how each and every point was a fallacy from Wikipedia wasn’t convincing.

Darkcoffee

– Other than suggesting a little higher activity rate no issues. You were killed for a reason.

Project

– You did a good job holding your own throughout the game, especially when under pressure Day 1 and Day 2. If anything be a little more confident in your instincts.

--

I think Zach has done a great job explaining why a fake-cop claim was a bad idea from SpacePope. It almost worked out but had Jason gone back at Space I feel we might have been able to mislynch him Day 2 instead of Jason. Which isn’t a good outcome when it helps solidfy a fake-Cop claim.

To all three of you in MYLO

– I’m not going to quibble with the fact that you accepted lynching in MYLO since the result would have been a dead Project.

I will say that each of you was asking the right questions (did the scum know the set-up, assessing that I could be fake-claiming) but just didn’t push enough. Honestly there is no way that there could be a role-blocker in the set-up when fake-claiming Space was the NK target. My cop claim didn’t stand up to close scrutiny. Which is why I never pushed SpacePope as a suspect Day 4 … the more it was discussed the more my story would become more and more implausible.

Here’s the scum QT – Jason didn’t mention any qualms about posting it.

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/ip5aKVnfny5R

It isn’t very long but should hopefully help you understand how Jason and I played our game.

Thanks again to Zach for modding and thanks to everyone for making my first Newbie game experience as an IC a memorable one.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOI: Any thoughts on my play? I'm attempting to change the way I play, the biggest problem I have is that I get NK'd early because I'm too town or I get lynched last because I'm too town. Hahaha.

I had to look back to really get a feel. Given you replaced into a lurker slot a more active play-style would have been probably more benefical to Town. Overall I don't see anything directly bad at all about your play.