New Designer Mafia (Victor(s) are crowned)

[Amrun]

Ugh. I'm confused.

I think you're both scum.

I'm willing to compromise and lynch WiR, but I still need to complete those ISOs.

[Amrun]

Idk know yet.

I'm still feeling like fishy is B and I want to lynch B. I think.

My mind is full of fuck.

[WhenInRome]

Wait, IS, why are you suddenly saying Mafia A exists?

[Internet Stranger]

I'm saying that I initially thought it impossible, but now after reviwing it further its quite possible. I'm also saying that either way Fishy is scum and must be lynched. We can't just go with the sole scenario he painted when there are other scenarios out therem Fishy tried to make his sacenario convincing, hence it must be a trap, especially when he is using me as the lynch bait.

Fishy MUST be lynched.

[Amrun]

I'm pretty convinced fishy is scum, tbh.

I still want to hear from zoraster before a lynch is achieved...

But honestly, fishy, you might as well consider yourself at L-1. I would do it for real if I wasn't afraid of lynch shenanigans.

[Amrun]

ISOs started.

First up:

zoraster:

Actually quite similar to fishy. He started off the game looking very town to me, yet hasn't been NKed. Later in the game, he's peppered us with v/las and actual unexplainable absences with very little content in between.

His only firm stances have been against Xalxe and Tasky, so it's obvious that he's not Mafia B.

However, he doesn't mention Furcolow ONCE in his entire ISO... I'm thinking it's possible he's mafia C.

Or, he could be totally disinterested town. Not sure.

However, this post stood out to me:

mostly I'm curious about it myself, and I watched that video a few times over thinking to myself, "if i were a third party, what would be scummy? what town?"

... WHAT? If I were third party?!

Maybe he's a third party killer (blast kills)?

[Amrun]

ISO #2:

ThAd.

I expressed an early suspicion of him today, but after an ISO, I change my mind. ThAd is town. He is obviously not Mafia B, and though he didn't vote for Furc, he addressed Furc several times and called him out for some things. He COULD be Mafia C but I don't think so.

He could be some hypothetical Mafia A, but as I don't think Mafia A exists, I don't think so.

Okay, good. Me, ThAd, and someone else SHOULD be the remaining town. This helps. I feel confident about this read.

[Amrun]

WiR:

Definitely not mafia B. As others have said, WiR being a member of mafia C looks likely.

He has a scummy ability BUT he's been upfront about it.

Seems to have been slightly deceptive with fishy in his night QTs. Scumpoint there.

Lack of caution in his QT with me: townpoint.

[WhenInRome]

Seems to have been slightly deceptive with fishy in his night QTs. Scumpoint there.

Well, at first his points seemed reasonable, but when I thought more about it I realized the flaws in his points.

[Amrun]

IS:

Suspected and voted for Furcolow, Xalxe, and Tasy.

I find it unlikely that he's Mafia C or Mafia B.

If there is a hypothetical Mafia A, it's possible he's on it with his backtracking about the existence of a Mafia A today.

I, however, do not think there is a Mafia A, though not totally ruling it out. Even if there is a Mafia A, I'm not voting for someone who is hypothetically Mafia A when there are much more likely scenarios. Tomorrow, this may change, depending on how the flip and then night goes. Today, however, I will not support an IS or a ThAd lynch.

Here are my conclusions after ISOing everybody:

Mafia B: Xalxe, Tasky, Fishy

Mafia C: Furcolow, zoraster, WiR

Remaining town: Amrun, ThAdmiral, InternetStranger


I could be wrong, but this is what I'm thinking as of right now.

Obviously, if there's a Mafia A, that is definitely wrong, but I won't be voting on suspicion of Mafia A until tomorrow at the earliest.


The only question is do I vote for who I suspect to be Mafia B or who I suspect to be Mafia C?

[Amrun]

WiR, how about you give an analysis of remaining town and scum?

[ThAdmiral]

As for where I stand today:
I will not support an Amrum or Is lynch.

Order of preference for others is: WiR, Fishy, Zoraster

[Amrun]

Assuming we successfully lynch the remaining mafia B member, then we'd go into night 2 with a 3:2 as far as I can guess. If mafia C then kills a town member, that's not good, unless the other kill flavor takes out a mafia member as well. That WOULD be good, as it would leave us with 2:1.

If we successfully lynch a mafia C member, then it's still 3:1:1, but there can be up to 3 nightkills. Worst case scenario: mafia B gets a town member, mafia C gets a town member, third kill flavor gets a town member.... the mafia teams tie, if that's even possible. If ONE of those kills is a mafia member, it's 1:1:1. I honestly don't even know what would happen in that situation.

We also can't discount the idea that blasted is an SK role ... which would be very bad.


Both of these scenarios are awful, honestly. It really all comes down to is blasted a pro-town role or not?

If it is, lynching fishy is the way to go. If it's not, lynching WiR is the way to go ... maybe.

I might have to take a gamble on fishy either way, because the second scenario confuses me a LOT while the first is simple.

Thoughts?


Looking forward to a zoraster post today. If there is an SK type role, I peg him as it.

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: you seem convinced I'm scum, and I really have no idea at all why. Please explain? Is there anything I've said or done in this game you'd like me to explain?

I think you are being rather silly in disbelieving in Mafia A. I'll repeat the evidence:
- Calling two mafiates "B" and "C" is outright bastard modding - and there's no indication of that.
- We have three kill flavours with no explanation, all of which look antitown - "blasted" is the only even possible townkill, but DH is still a hugely unlikely townkill.
I just don't see how you can get two mafiates out of that - can you explain what you think the mod was up to, and why town would kill someone who resurrected two confirmed townies?

IS's rhetoric here really doesn't mean anything. He says I'm trying to "paint you into a single scenario". That literally means "trying to persuade people of what I think is true" - A exists, WiR is C, IS is A. That's all. He hasn't explained why trying to persuade you of that that is unreasonable, or makes me scum. Apart from blatant OMGUS - "I can't believe you'd attack such a shining town as me" - that's the entirety of his case.

IS has a habit of quietly dropping points when they're criticised, and his posts read well. That makes him hard to argue against. But

please

, read the arguments carefully - he's pushing this lynch based off fresh air and bullshit. Read how his arguments change, and read how he never responds to

anything

I say. This guy is scum, and I am

not

.

Looking at IS's play through the game, there's not much there that stands out until today. He spends a good few days just tunnelling on Xalxe. Which was right, of course, but doesn't really tell us much. He threw out a token "a lurker is probably scum too" list at one point. I don't like the way he tries to undermine our role-related confirmed and near confirmed town - chesskid, CoolDog (resurrected townies) and DH (who brought them back). I think it's very much in line with the scum's interests to stop people trusting each other like that. He's always very much willing to

suspect

people based on roles, even when it doesn't make much sense (Oli, dana, Plum), but hates it when people look like town because of their role.

@zoraster:

if you are town, we need you here very badly.

@ThAd: why do you think IS is town?
@WiR: other than that thing in the QT, what are your reasons for thinking I'm scum? I responded to what you said about the QT - any further comment on that?

[Amrun]

Evidence on Mafia A:
-Bastard modding? I totally disagree. Maybe town is A and we don't even know it. They're just names, either way.
-Blasted could be an SK kill, too, which you seem to be completely disregarding. The three kills is, of course, the best piece of evidence that still has me baffled. But how could it possibly have only 2 kills?!

I'm not discounting the possibility of Mafia A existing, but I decided that for the purposes of PoE today, I would think about B and C as groups.

Tomorrow, after all the related flips, I may reconsider or I may not.

In the land where B and C are the mafia groups, you are scum by PoE and associative tells.

However, I'm fine with a WiR lynch instead since he's likely to be mafia either way.


Still, the situations I outlined above make me think that if we DON'T lynch you and you ARE mafia B, we might be screwed.

So, I'm currently weighing possibilities.

[Amrun]

Oh, and I should mention that your supposed lack of ability to post was ruined when you constantly defended yourself, which makes me think you were intentionally lurking. Definitely a strike against you.

[Fishythefish]

"B" and "C" are just names, but they are names that heavily imply "A". I would see calling your factions "B" and "C" as an outright lie on the part of the mod.

I agree that Blasted, or any of the others for that matter, could be a SK kill. The problem of only two kills is there either way - only a 2-shot vig or similar helps with that (speaking of which, it's a long shot but -

if there is a limited shot vig who's kills are all gone, they should absolutely and definitely claim that now

). It agree that for either of those, we must have had a fair few coincidences - which is more likely than usual in a game like this, with loads of roles out there.

I'm sure you can see that discounting the possibility of A scum even just for today is too much if it leads to the wrong lynch. And I think it

does

lead to the wrong lynch - either me as B scum or WiR as C scum. My lynch is game losing, and if I'm right about A so is WiR's.

You say that if there is no A, I am scum by "PoE and associative tells". PoE - I was going to question this, but actually yeah. PoE would make me pretty likely to be B scum, if it existed. What are these "associative tells" that make me look like B scum?

Re: lurking. Have you looked at my sitewide activity in the times when I was V/LA? It

proves

that I wasn't intentionally lurking - I don't think anyone would fall inactive in three games in order to lurk effectively in one. Defending myself today doesn't change that at all.

[ThAdmiral]

@ThAd: why do you think IS is town?

He's been putting himself out there rather than lurking, and ceaselessly hunted down two mafiates.

[zoraster]

I'm back. Been a long weekend, but I promise I don't use V/LA as a method for lurking; I've been out of town as I mentioned elsewhere.

Anyway, I'm going to try and catch up now, but while I do I'd love to hear from you if there's something specific you need to know, etc.

[Amrun]

Fishy: then who do you want to lynch besides IS, since ThAd and I think he's twn and won't support his lynch? Is zoraster a good compromise?

Zoraster: I ISOed you on this page. Read it. Do you think there is a Mafia A? Scum and townlist, please.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy: then who do you want to lynch besides IS, since ThAd and I think he's twn and won't support his lynch? Is zoraster a good compromise?

Regardless of what you think of me, what do you think of IS's attacks on me today, and my responses? I really think they're pretty awful from him.

At the moment I think I prefer a ThAd lynch - for one thing he seems enormously uninquisitive during the IS/Fishy fight today. ThAd is clearly happy to stay out of the limelight here - giving brief reasons for me being scum, and not replying when I responded, and spouting IS's own propaganda about how shiny his play has been. Feels very much like scum who can practically see the finish line, and doesn't want to do anything dangerous. So, at the moment my thinking is:

IS (very likely A scum)
ThAd (2nd most likely A scum)
zoraster (3rd most likely A scum)
WiR (very likely C scum - but only a good lynch if I'm somehow wrong about everything/role craziness saves us)
Amrun (likely town)
Fishy (obviously)

Let's have one more go at convincing you that A scum is likely, or at the very least it's crazy to rule it out for the day - because I'm struggling to see how we are going to get a good lynch without that. Here's why there is probably A scum:

1. Have you ever seen a game with two mafiates called "B" and "C", or "2" and "3"? If you saw this naming system in a setup, or in RL, you'd assume that there was an A. Anything else is outright misleading from the mod. If he wanted to name them so we couldn't work anything out, he could have used something without an order - say "Sicilian" and "Roman" (or w/e).

Even if you don't agree with that:

2. There are 3 kill flavours. None of them is plausibly town - a vig would

never

kill the guy who has been proven to bring townies back from the dead. So we have 3 antitown factions.
3. The main argument against two mafiates (AFAIC) is the lack of kills. But having fewer mafiates doesn't

help

explain the missed kills! If we have a vig, we still missed loads of kills (and no 2-shot vig would wait until nights 4 and 5 if he had 2 shots). If we have a SK, we still missed loads of kills. Whatever the setup, we missed loads of kills. That's kind of surprising, but it

isn't

an argument against 3 mafiates unless

something else explains it

.

[Amrun]

I really don't want to lynch ThAd... Maybe tomorrow, if we confirm Mafia A, but not today. Same for IS - and in fact if there is a mafia A, I will happily vote for him over all others.

I think some of IS' points today have been valid and others have been strange/bad, such as his flip-flopping on the existence of Mafia A. Still, his actual analysis of your play I don't see much problem with, and that's the important part, imho.


Can you give me a read of what you REALLY think about zoraster?


Also, your 2. and 3. points I totally see, of course, but I've been thinking about it, and is it possible it was an SK with a trigger? Like, he can only kill after n5 or something? idk. :/ I need to think a bit more.

[Fishythefish]

Which bits of IS's analysis do you agree with? You haven't said much about me being scum except for my lurking - which I really think I've demonstrated was just bad luck.

I'll have a good look over zoraster now. My memory is that I liked his play early on, and then he stopped playing the game.

A nerfed SK? SK isn't exactly an overpowered role to start with. And if you are coming up with convoluted explanations like that, why not go for the simpler explanation?

I suppose that if you don't like point 1. of my reasoning, it's possible that we are in 2:2:1:1 Town:C:B:SK; there's nothing else to stop the third flavour being SK, in which case the mafiates were probably 3:3 to begin with. But if that's the case, we're buggered anyway.

[ThAdmiral]

My philosophy is that I don't know whether there is a mafia A, and that I don't know which mafia people like WiR or Fishy might be on. I believe that we should just be lynching the person who we feel is most likely to be scum.

[Amrun]

I agreed with IS' analysis of your late hops on the wagon with both Xalxe and Tasky - which were the associative tells I was talking about early.

I've been thinking about zoraster as a serial killer A, and I think it could work... I mean, it's definitely not too strange to think that his kills got buggered the first couple of nights, since there were more roles in action then. And he's been pretty inactive. Let's say he missed a night?

Along with his weird "third party" slip that I can't believe I missed in the beginning of the game, I could see this.