New Designer Mafia (Victor(s) are crowned)

[Amrun]

*earlier, not early, in the first sentence of #1249

[Internet Stranger]

So Fishy gives a decent analysis on the play of ThAd and Zora that points to them being very likely scum, very similar to the reasons used on WiR (which pretty much everyone agrees with). So thats three players who he lists as possibly scum lynch candidates (out of 5), but yet chooses to come up with a crappy excuse full of WiFOM and rampant speculation to come after me with instead.

Now Fishy throws his hands in the air and asks "What did I do?".

Fishy must have assumed that he could get an easy lynch out of me, whether its from meta reasons or figured since he thinks the others are scummier, he could get them to go along with him (I think I like that explanation better) for their own scummy selfish reasons. It makes sense really. Assume a townie playing with a bunch of scum, it would be much easier to band the scummiest elements against town than the other way around (Which we can see it isnt working for Fishy).

He is even baiting ThAd out there now to gauge whether we would be willing to switch out votes away from him now. Bus attempt perhaps to gain credibility for tomorrow? I wont get too far into that, its full of WiFOM anyways.

Fishy all of a sudden is Captain America here to save us all after all sorts of V/LA and unspectacular play when he was around before too. I dont buy it. I agree with ThAd, we might as well lynch the scummiest player we got since there are still too many branches of role speculation to go through. Im pretty convinced that Fishy is our lynch today.

[Amrun]

Is there a reason you haven't claimed even though I told you that you should think of yourself at L-1, fishy?

I'm much less hesitant now anyway, as zoraster has had the time to post and it has been as lackluster as always. Still want to give him more time, though.

[Fishythefish]

I agreed with IS' analysis of your late hops on the wagon with both Xalxe and Tasky - which were the associative tells I was talking about early.

I've been thinking about zoraster as a serial killer A, and I think it could work... I mean, it's definitely not too strange to think that his kills got buggered the first couple of nights, since there were more roles in action then. And he's been pretty inactive. Let's say he missed a night?

Along with his weird "third party" slip that I can't believe I missed in the beginning of the game, I could see this.

There was no late wagon hop on Xalxe! As I've pointed out, that was a downright lie by IS (and one that he never bothered to defend). On Tasky; yeah, I was late to that party, because I was V/LA. IS has said a

lot

more than that about me; what do you think of the rest of it?

Oh, FFS, IS. I was

asked

who I'd like to lynch other than you. Should I not give my reads when asked? Where on earth have I given "analysis that makes zora and ThAd very likely scum"? That is yet another simple and barefaced lie.

I thought the shooting NKs pointed to you as scum. Now, I am sure you are scum, after your frankly deranged attack on me; you are lieing and changing your story at every turn to achieve my lynch.

@Amrun, ThAd, zoraster, WiR (yes, even WiR - it's in your interests to lynch scum today, whether you're scum C or town): IS is snowing this town with lies. Please. Read his posts today. Read my responses. Then do it again. This guy is scum. He couldn't give a rat's ass about my alignment. He needs to be lynched.

@Amrun: I wouldn't claim here until 4 people were ready for my lynch, and I didn't feel I had anything more to defend myself with. At the moment, I don't think there are 4 people ready for my lynch now, and I sure as hell aren't done defending myself.

Reread zoraster. While he was here, I don't see anything I dislike too much in his play. He clearly isn't scum with Xalxe/Tasky. Could be scum with Furc, though not in the league of WiR. Definitely an ok candidate for A scum.

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: wait a sec. Aren't your professed reads totally inconsistent with wanting my lynch? If it's 2 C scum, 1 B scum left, wanting the B scum lynched would be suicidal.

The only way IS managed to square wanting my lynch with anything like reality was his totally and scummy reversal from "there is no A scum - if there is we've lost anyway" through "there is A scum - if there isn't we've lost away" to "there is A scum". Why are you happy to call for my claim and lynch when from your reads it guarantees a C scum win?

[Amrun]

Actually, WiR and ThAd have professed scumreads on you, so that makes 4. I'd be willing to lynch today because it's a consensus we can come to and I think you're scum -- also because the scenario where you are mafia B is SIMPLE, whereas the rest is complicated and confuses me.

Also willing to lynch WiR, as stated earlier, but people seem to agree he's scum with no real push for a lynch. I just want a scum lynch today. I honestly can't be that fussed over who it is.

Are you happy lynching WiR, fishy? If so, that's fine with me.

I'm honestly tired of today. I really have enjoyed this game, but I'm eager to see it through to the finish line and I don't think dawdling will help us much rather than confuse us more.

[Amrun]

If we lynch WiR, we likely get a C scum and then the night will probably clarify this A business and we can tackle IS et. al. tomorrow with more information. Make sense? Can we come to a consensus on this?

[Fishythefish]

Amrun - the scenario where I'm Mafia B is simple, but in it

lynching me would be a town loss

. Simple does not mean good.

Similarly WiR's lynch is an autoloss (barring role shenanigans) if Mafia A exists, so I'm not happy to lynch him unless it's him or me.

OK, I'm going to shut up now until we hear what zoraster has to say. This game needs a fresh voice.

@zoraster:

today is an excellent day to read, and is not far from being self contained.

[Amrun]

Okay, honestly, there aren't many scenarios that equal a town win.

In my opinion, all we can do is vote for likely scum and hope for the best and lots of lots of crosskills and role shenanigans tonight.

How about zoraster? Willing to lynch him? I am. He could even be Mafia A.

And, while we're thinking of it...

VOTE: zoraster

Until he gets his ass in here and gives the content he's been promising. He asked for some simple questions to answer while he caught up. I asked him them. He didn't deliver.

[ThAdmiral]

WiR has always been my first choice to lynch so if we can come to consensus on that I'm all for it.

[Amrun]

How are you feeling about zoraster, ThAd?

[ThAdmiral]

He's testing my patience.

[ThAdmiral]

More seriously I seem to remember him being ok in iso, nothing much bad/scummy - but that's mainly because he hasn't posted all that much.

[Fashion Llama]

Vote Count

Fishythefish (2) - Internet Stranger, WhenInRome
zoraster (1) - Amrun

Not Voting (3) - Fishythefish, ThAdmiral, zoraster

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch

[Amrun]

But, would you support his lynch today? Do you think it's a good idea, or no?

[zoraster]

Okay. First things first, I'll respond to Amrun's post:

ISOs started.

First up:

zoraster:

Actually quite similar to fishy. He started off the game looking very town to me, yet hasn't been NKed. Later in the game, he's peppered us with v/las and actual unexplainable absences with very little content in between.

His only firm stances have been against Xalxe and Tasky, so it's obvious that he's not Mafia B.

However, he doesn't mention Furcolow ONCE in his entire ISO... I'm thinking it's possible he's mafia C.

Or, he could be totally disinterested town. Not sure.

However, this post stood out to me:

mostly I'm curious about it myself, and I watched that video a few times over thinking to myself, "if i were a third party, what would be scummy? what town?"

... WHAT? If I were third party?!

Maybe he's a third party killer (blast kills)?

Yes, this game got away from me. At some point after Day 1 it seemed to really drag on and I never really got involved. Unfortunate, but there we are.

As for the third party thing, that wasn't me breadcrumbing third party or something. It was a third party as in a disinterested (not uninterested as used in the quote) party. In other words, someone looking from the outside in on the video (i.e. not me).

As for Furc... I don't really know. I guess he just didn't seem to stand out to me like Xalxe did.

---
Moving on.

The pushing of Fishy is misplaced. He looks town to me. Yes, he went AWOL, but he did so across ALL of his games, and it seems highly unlikely that he was doing so for strategic reasons. If you take that away, I think you're left without much. I think ThAd and IS come across smelling not-so-fresh, but frankly are nothing compared to the stink emanating off of WhenInRome.

Take the following:

Well, at first his points seemed reasonable, but when I thought more about it I realized the flaws in his points.

This seems pretty classic scum. It's noncommittal to the extreme. He doesn't mention whether he really thinks this makes Fishy scum, and he doesn't really go into depth on what he thinks those flaws are. It's scumhunting for those who don't feel obliged to scum hunt. Lest you believe this is a one time occurence, I encourage everyone to ISO WiR and go back. At first his posts might look robust, but they have the same critical failure to actually try and say "X is scum" without having quite a bit of backup behind him.

[Amrun]

I do agree that WiR is probable scum.

But you do realize that we're almost definitely at 3:3 right now ... or even 2:2:1.

So going after the basic scummiest may not be the best strategy.



Do you think there is a mafia A or not? Very important that you take a stance on this.

[Fishythefish]

3:3? That's one place we really can't be. It looks like it's one of:

1. 3T:2A:1C
2. 3T:2C:1B (+viggy type stuff)
3. 2T:2C:1B:1SK

In 2 and 3, WiR lynch is optimal (as far as I can tell, we're unanimous on him being scum C). But I think 1 is probably where we actually are.

[ThAdmiral]

Well I don't know what the setup is, or which scum are left. I do know that WiR is our best shot at scum.
Everyone seems to be in agreement, I see no reason not to...

vote: WiR

[zoraster]

I do agree that WiR is probable scum.

But you do realize that we're almost definitely at 3:3 right now ... or even 2:2:1.

So going after the basic scummiest may not be the best strategy.



Do you think there is a mafia A or not? Very important that you take a stance on this.

Quick phone post: my guess is there is no mafia a.

[Amrun]

Fishy, I was counting all mafia as one unit in those little "scenarios." So, yes, you're right, but the spread of mafia didn't matter so much in the point I was making of town:mafia ratio.


zoraster, whose lynch are you willing to support today? Just WiR?

[Internet Stranger]

Zoraster is trying to focus our attention back to WiR.

Zoraster is alluding that there is no Mafia A.
If there is no Mafia A, then Fishy is still the most likely Mafia B.
Zoraster is doing his best to avoid dealing with Fishy and even went as far as to proclaim him full on town despite everyone else being suspicious of Fishy.
No mention of Zora on who could be Mafia B then.

Zora finally makes a post after what we assume is a strong and deep analytical re-reading and the content is rather underwhelming. He sure contributed more before didnt he? I mean he made 10 minute videos!

The conspiracy theorist in me says that Zoraster is in cahoots with Fishy, so he avoids bandwagoning Fishy, focuses on WiR, and denies the existence of a Mafia A (Zora and Fishy) and is trying to get us to lynch his competition (Mafia C - WiR).

Im not falling for this. This is classic scum play. My vote on Fishy stays. And the more Zora continues to avoid Fishy, the more convinced I will that they are scum together.

Based on Zora's play, im convinced that Fishy is the right move here. I dont know why you all are giving Zora so much credit after massive disappearances and scummy behavior.

[zoraster]

Fishy, I was counting all mafia as one unit in those little "scenarios." So, yes, you're right, but the spread of mafia didn't matter so much in the point I was making of town:mafia ratio.


zoraster, whose lynch are you willing to support today? Just WiR?

WiR, IS, ThAd in that order.

Take a look at what IS just posted. Does this seem honest? It's attacking me, so maybe my view is colored on the subject, but that attack seems entirely disjointed:

1. I didn't allude that there is no Mafia A. I said I didn't think there was. I said exactly what I meant, so using a term that makes it sound like I'm merely trying to vaguely suggest something is untrue.

2. He says I'm "doing my best to avoid dealing with Fishy." I don't think this is remotely true. I said I think Fishy is town, and I think the attacks on him are misguided at best. That's not not dealing with him. That's dealing with him and coming to a different conclusion than you have. I think we've all played enough Mafia to know that having someone disagree with you doesn't make the other person scum.

I have to step out of the house now (fiancee is waiting on me), but I'll continue this when I get back. IS is not making sense, and it needs to be called out.

[Internet Stranger]

We are sitting here in a giant Mexican Standoff. There is a certain uneasyness because we are dealing with a huge unknown over which one is the losing scenario. You dont know the reason why person X is pushing one scenario over another when person Y is pushing another likely scenario. This day is full of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Everyone is looking suspicious to everyone else.

Amrun has her suspicions on everyone.
WiR has his suspicions on everyone.
ThAd has his suspicions on everyone.
IS has his suspicions on everyone.
Fishy has his suspicions on everyone.

Zoraster is ready to just hand over the "King of all Townies" crown to Fishy though. Why? Why would anyone do that? Especially at this point? Even Fishy on his reads just says "likely" town once and everyone else is possible scum. Thats what im talking about. Its not just a mere disagreement. Its a complete reversal of what everyone else is doing. Does that not look scummy to anyone else?

No one else thinks Fishy is the supreme white knight, untouchable by corruption or filth, here to save us all from the scum. So why is Zora completely exonerating him when the rest of us have our suspicions? Why?

In the end if you all decide to lynch WiR at Zora's request instead thats fine. I just know what when Fishy come over to me like a really scummy suspicious looking Monty Hall and offers me to go with scenario A, im most likely to distrust him and go with scenario B.

[zoraster]

Step 1: We're in a mexican standoff because everyone suspects everyone else
Step 2: Go after Zoraster for not suspecting everyone else.

Do you see how ridiculously inconsistent that is, IS?

I think a member of a Mafia is more likely to feel like they're in a mexican standoff anyway. That's not town speak, really. If you're Mafia B, for example, you probably feel like everyone is against you because everyone probably IS against you. Whereas if you were really town, you'd be looking for your allies, not just your enemies. And that's what I'm doing.