Newbie 1067 - Game over - Town Win!

[Mist7676]

Ya

[Mist7676]

Ya

[Mist7676]

Sorry for the double post and now triple

[dysorder]

First off, welcome Stefunny.

Sorry guys and girls, I haven't had a whole lot to say lately. I've been reading and going over things, but I just didn't have much input.

After re-reading Kcda, I can definitely see some scum coming through. I'm not convinced, though, and wouldn't mind waiting for him to respond to his now L-1. Thing is, all three of our replacements have put some fresh ideas forward, and I'm seeing all their points, which makes me wonder if I'm on the right track at all.

[inspiratieloos]

You say that you are not convinced, do you mean that you think he is more town or just the normal 'anyone could always be town/scum no matter what their behaviour'? If the first, who do you think is scum instead? Waiting for a response should be done in any case, no matter how scummy someone is.

Kcda, I see that you've been on mafiascum both today and yesterday, why haven't you responded to the L-1 yet?

[GMan]

[quote=mist7676]GMan - Who do you think is the scum team?[/quote]

Too early to speculate that for me. I certainly didn't notice any strong links in my read through.

[Kcdaspot]

UGH I've forgotten about this...

[Kcdaspot]

I never saw that Hwag iso until after the les debocle.

AND WHAT THE HELL DO YOU MEAN I SAID "I SHOULD VOTE LES"???

THE FUCK?

[Kcdaspot]

that was at stefunny

i'm checking the post in question now

[Kcdaspot]

I was talking about the hammer...

it was bad to say the least but again i'll say it: taken as themselves Les's posts are scummy but when you read the ISO he's town.

[Kcdaspot]

in singular out of context, each of les's posts are scummy but, when you put them into context of how the game progress hes town.

i hope that made alot more sense... anything else scummy about my play stef?

[Kcdaspot]

as well i didn't put read up yet and i was meaning to.

as a apology here they come VVV

[Kcdaspot]

I need to take a better look at inspira, dys, and mist.

last time i gave something good i think gave all 3 nullish reads... UNVOTE:
so that way my head is clear...

Inspria:
What in god's name is wrong with this ISO? lotta fluff and discussion. noting that at the beginning you vote hopped alot. more than a few times really... is this wagon following?

HELL look at his reads! D1: Null, Null, Null, Town, Null, Null, Null Null? (not in that order mind you.) Why the in decisiveness? and then voting Hwag in 2 posts!!! WTH?

D2: he puts his vote on Les

AND HAS YET TO PULL IT OFF

jesus, are you just GOING for the easy lynch?

Read: scum. I expected to see a town read here BUT LO AND BEHOLD

Next: Mist.

GOD I get weird vibes here D1. first 5 posts, okay not so bad the odd stuff comes at ISO post 9.
She Votes Nacho wanting a claim then unvotes saying it was a joke... not bad really, since it was in the same post, but a raised eyebrow here.
AND THEN, AFTER EXPLAINING WHY SHE

DIDN'T

WANT TO VOTE NACHO, SHE VOTES HIM AGAIN 2 POSTS LATER AND UNVOTES HIM HER NEXT POST... wat?
Cop outing thing happens then she gets on the les wagon WITHOUT TELLING US WHY HE'S SCUM. honestly the entire time she was on that wagon she just CORRECTED him. Not once, NOT. ONCE. Does she make a case. AND THEN GOES RIGHT BACK ON NACHO THINKING HE'S SCUM WITHOUT VOTING HIM, AFTER HE VOTES ME? forget the weird vibes, this is another scum slot in the making folks.
CLAIMS that she doesn't see my cases AFTER MENTIONING I'M USING META ON HER THERE. NICE. TRY. revotes nacho, for a crap reason, and rides that out until the end of the day. YE. GODS.

D2: fluffflufffluff OHAIGMAN and then reads. has a town read on me and inspire but then changes it to null... what have you done today?

Read: scum

Finally: Dys

...... what is there to comment on? i've been thinking this guy is lurkyscum.. what got me on him was his lack of posting and his vote hop from nacho to Hwag... but reading over everything, his posts arn't as fluffy as say mist's or inspria... reads look fine. gives out detail with them.

Yeah.. with a "my bad" I'm going to do a 180 and say he's town-to-null. the null is there because a don't see him actively pursuing scum rather just defending himself...

and with those three done. i'll do the others later on tonite.

but think today is a inspria or mist lynch.

[Stefunny]

I think it's funny that in 2 of those Iso's you mention the vote jumps to HWaG, AND the whole "I should vote Les" thing at the beginning of D2 based on his hammer of HWaG! Do you know why it's funny that you point fingers at the people who voted HWaG?

I'll show you.

Mist: move your vote to HwaG.

everyone: do the same.

48 hrs and this is the top scum i got. time MAKE THIS BW HAVE NO BRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKES

i'd really like to lynch Hwag please...

Game needs to move... like now...

lol

i ask for a hammer please.

...you don't realize how much i raged when Hwag flipped town.

GOD DAMMIT.

[Uncle Pain]

Mist7676:

• Your reads have changed quite a bit. Since GMan and me dropped in here, we just have analysed the game and stated our thoughts, set our votes, replied to questions. We haven’t really
  acted
  yet and still we’re both down to 20%/30% scumminess. Just noticing…
  
• About your question: depends. If he had been on L-2 or less, I would have considered a vote to put pressure on him – after all, there
  were
  odd things in the room that needed to be clarified. Since we saw that he coped badly with the L-1 situation (throwing in the towel), I would have avoided a (hammer) vote and instead would have tried to make Hazard with a Glove answer specific questions to get
  something
  out of him. He never was an obvious lynch target in my opinion. Furthermore, as I stated before, if I had been in the Day 1 deadline situation, I would have preferred a No Lynch over this highly vague bandwagon.

Stefunny:

• Welcome!
  
• Don’t you think you’re exaggerating the EM part about Mist7676? I mean, I don’t know EM and I don’t know Mist7676 but it seems a bit easy how you kind of clear her by saying “ah, it’s okay, she’s just an EM noob”.
  
• What do you think about Les Guilelesser’s hammer? It kind of felt sudden and unexpected from him, in spite of the approaching deadline.
  
• Me saying Nacho only switch vote once in #439 was a mistake, I’m sorry for the confusion, I used the old ISO method to go through his posts via his user profile → “Search user’s posts” and was baffled by the huge number of non-Newbie-1067 posts so I missed a lot of content from him. When I was told of this mistake before, I realized that he did hop. This wasn’t exactly scummy to me though, I think he used his vote to put pressure on people so his question got answered. I find this approach generally a good one (as long as one keeps looking on the vote counts, obviously). To be honest, I find vote hopping a WIFOM argument par excellence. And I don’t say this to defend my predecessor, I mean it.
  
• I
  never
  acknowledged a Day 2 No Lynch. I was only talking about a Day 1 No Lynch. I find such a means a sensible strategy to potentially strengthen town if there is no clearly scummy target when the deadline comes into sight. You may disagree with this but I think this is a bit off-topic here. If this point matters to your in-game opinion about me, please elaborate on why you find a Day 1 No Lynch unhelpful.
  
• Would you like to point out who stated his/her security about the existence of a doc/cop, other than Les Guilelesser? It was him who brought this on the table. I’ll reread the thread as soon as I have some spare time, I’m just asking you for convenience.

Kcdaspot:

• Stefunny clearly made a point in #488. You’re at L-1 and still you haven’t told us why you pursued the Day 1 lynch so eagerly (although this is a major argument against you) and now you even point at the others that were on the bandwagon. Do you
  want
  to be lynched?
  
• You marked inspiratieloos and Mist7676 scummy but you don’t vote either of them? Are there uber-scum reads coming up on the rest of us? (GMan, Stefunny, me)

[Uncle Pain]

EBWOP: @Stefunny: By being very clever and only searching for “doc” and “cop” occurrences in the thread, I’ve quickly skimmed through the thread and found no evidence for anyone believing in the existence of doc and/or cop (anyone other the Les Guilelesser, that is).

[Kcdaspot]

I'm trying not to get ahead of myself..

and note that YES I get on them for being on a wagon i supported. A)That's not the only reason i think them as scum.. or do you lot read? B) i created that case. I had a reason. neither of them commented on that case or said anything about it. they just voted and thats it. therefore i'm thinking sheepyscum.

C) I SAID LATER. MEANING THIS AFTERNOON. as I said, I'm going to take all my reads as a whole and then vote.. like i did last time (page 9)

D) and why should we mention them? do we want scum to find them? I think that the more you mention a PR the more likly he'll slip up. I think it's best to let the subject be and they will claim when they feel like it/when they need to/when we want them to.

[Kcdaspot]

at school.

reads later.

[Kcdaspot]

I had a dream last night where i had a mustache..... a weird one...

anyway.

Les/Gman: I think thats right?

My read on les stands. noob town. i don't see scum making this ISO i really don't. it's hard describe because his ISO is hard to read but dudes town yo.

Gman: out he gate he shows that he catches up... but i notice he zeroes in on me around... page 9... hes asks questions for the rest of the ISO... do you have any other reads?

Read: Town. <SHOCKER I KNOW.

next on is perry... but did he get replaced? AHH YES stefunny

might need to update the OP mod.

anyway ill start with perry who apparently posted from a phone most of the game. his ISO page 2 has most of his content...

I get a big fat null... some scum lines some town lines... nothing big either way but then again He's just in the back not doing anything.. i'm glad he got replaced

and stefunny is just tunneling me. with a reason but still any other suspects? come on.

Read: nully null.

ON TO TEH IC: nacho/THE HOUSE OF PAIN.

I get some feeling of disinterest here from nacho. but then again his ISO IS full of content so there's one on me :/

most notable thing is his vote hop onto Les. Did he ever state why? but in other news hes been giving out reason otherwise scumhunting and persueing questions

I get more of the same from UP.. but more involved. so yeah.

Read: town

... okay and with that. VOTE: inspira

it's mist or inspira. pick one.

[Mist7676]

Hmmm... KCD is seeming slightly less scum with all those reads. Still scum but just less.

@rest of town. Should I hammer? How do you guys feel about his reads. I dont want to hammer on him when everyone starts thinking he is town.

[jasonT1981]

Day 2 vote count 7

Kdcaspot 3 - Uncle Pain, GMan, Stefunny

(Lynch -1)

inspira 1 - KDCA
GMan 1 - inspiratieloos

Not voting

Mist
Dysorder



With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch

with a deadline of April 12th at 3.15pm EST

[inspiratieloos]

Mist, there are still open questions, I'd wait with the hammer.

I think this is relevant for Kcda attacking me for getting on the Hazard wagon:
Uncle pain: The list of numbers you linked to assumes a night start, in a day start it is exactly the opposite.
I calculated our situation myself:
Our chance to win normally assuming no PRs and random lynchings/NKs gives us a 29.8% to win (mafia 70.2%)
If we'd no-lynched D1 and then no-lynch again in MYLO our chance would have been 21.1% (mafia 78.9%), which is almost 1/3 lower.
At this moment we have a 22.9% chance, which is actually

higher

than if we hadn't lynched Hazard
Had you suggested this D1 I'd have called it pretty scummy or maybe a cop tell, because that is the only reason I can think of for town suggesting no-lynch D1. Possibly making a good situation better, while making a bad situation worse is not a good gamble.
Seeing as this is D2 it doesn't say anything about you, but it does prove my point that doing my best to get

a

lynch was a good call (in hindsight anyone can agree that lynching a townie is bad)

Kcda, I don't see how keeping my vote on GMan is scummy, he is in no danger of being lynched at this point (I did read somewhere that you should always keep a vote up starting D2 unless in M/LYLO). My best alternative at this point would be you, but I think some people would be put out with me if I did that now.
I did consider putting a vote without unvoting first to see what the reactions would be... Luckily I re-checked the rules before doing that

Also I use five basic gradations in my reads prob-town, null-town, null, null-scum, prob-scum so my reads aren't as indecisive as they might have appeared to you (sorry for any misunderstandings)

[Kcdaspot]

okay then on the subject of Gman and perry: Are they scum? if not... WHY IN THE WORLD DO YOU HAVE YOUR VOTE ON THEM? If so.. why? and you better have a damned good reason.

and your null defense.... PAHAHAHAHAH come on. there are simple 3 options. town, null, and scum. you being so liberal with the use of null makes me think that you are not going to commit to ANY lynch of your own. this tells me that your just gonna sheep the main wagons.

Can we please not mislynch today. Sheepy scum is sheepy

[Stefunny]

Actually, I also said I felt Nacho/UP could possibly be scum. But I don't really think it's beneficial to try and find scum buddies until you've had one scum flip. So I tend to focus on the person I find to be the most scummy, and then when they flip scum use them as a reference point to find their buddy.

I need to read the last day worth of posts and answer a few peoples questions (Note to self, respond to Uncle Pain's questions). I will be home later tonight and will do so then.

I don't believe "sheepy" is necessarily scummy. Especially in a newbie game. It's an easy way to try and point your finger at newer players.

[GMan]

Mist is pretty much asking permission to hammer and it doesn't sit well with my gut.