I'll make a list.. two main things I was looking for here - Interactions with split and Quaroath, and D2 play. A bit of consideration given to guessing scum motive for killing night targets (Jack Forman, Quaroath) - likely a weaker thing to look for than the other two, due to WIFOM as mentioned since this was talked about after Night 1, but I like to consider it in the overall view of things. It's likely not a complete list either, as it was based off of one reread, but hopefully catches most of it.
Nacho
Aye
- The major one here, and the one I can't quite shake off, is that Split named Nacho as my partner. Does this mean that he's not voting because he knows it's one-true, one-false, and while he could lynch me to win or lynch Nacho for credit, he'd rather wait to see which wagon forms because winning with two scum left is "safer" than winning with one even though Nacho could be the easier lynch for towncred for split? Would he be audacious enough to name two townies as the scum, have them both OMGUS vote him, and hinge all his hopes on convincing the third townie (Rain or Stels), to vote along with him and his other scum partner (Stels or Rain)? Instead of naming 1 town 1 scum, and only needing to convince one of the two remaining townies to vote along with him. This might hinge on what Nacho actually does and how he votes when he comes back from his V/LA.
- If they're both scum, you could read
#258 as one scum trying to say hello to the other replacement scum and directing them toward his preferred lynch target for the day, although as it turns out, split never actually votes Rain (but Nacho does, until his hammer swap).
- They ultimately were both on the T-Bone wagon at the end, though this is weak as, well, I was on it too, and so was Stels.
Nay
- He didn't hammer either Stels or T-Bone when they were at 3-3 for some time, though he may have been V/LA then. He didn't push either wagon to L-1 either when we had under a week left and they were 2/2 though. That would likely have sealed the deal on whoever it was, and get to nightfall faster.
Rain
Aye
- Split tries to distance from Rain here:
- Split goes,
right after Rain goes
Which makes it seem like split knew Muh was town, and was trying to deaden the impact of Rain being the one to cast the hammer vote.
- Rain was the other secondary suspect that came up from my analysis on Jack's N1 NK, even though T-Bone got the brunt of my initial suspicion. Rain also then tried to bury N1 discussion (
#235), and backs down in his next post on #241.
- Rain's D2 play in general is short and shoddy, with posts like "Moar votes on Stels please." and "Lynch Stels please." to avoid prods (for the first of those two anyway) and generally coast through D2. He then uses the
Negative Proof logical fallacy here:
Rain wrote:Unless you have some ungodly explanation to why Stels is town, my vote stays.
on what he admits is a weak case, because he's saying that he won't move his vote unless Stels can be proven to be town, which no other townie can do (besides the cop.. was that foreshadowing and trying to test the waters to see if there was a cop, which he continued on with the WIFOM bomb at
#293?, which is not a townie thing to do at that point of the day at all). Basically he's saying, "You can't prove Stels is not scum. Therefore Stels is scum."
- He slips up in
#339 by naming someone as scummy whom he hadn't been focused on,
second
time this game, though this one he never acknowledges. He also says T-Bone seems like a scummy suspect but refused to consider changing his vote through the end of the day. Or at least never said so. Despite knowing as an IC that no-lynch there would be critically bad. While Nacho and Stels were on T-Bone's wagon, Rain stood out for calling him scummy but trying his best to stay off that wagon.
Nay
- Not directly "agreeing" with split and jumping on either me or Nacho, even though he posted immediately after the cop claim.
- They clashed around
#85 when split called Rain's comments on Jack as coaching.
- In Day 1 at
#96 Rain applied pressure to Quaroath with regard to following the safe vote, out of nowhere. I don't see Mafia doing that to a townie at that point because they'd very much appreciate the support and vote.
- Split attacks Rain in #256 about seed planting and declaring Jack town.
- Split attacks Rain again in D2 about his D1 quickhammer around #238-240-241, #256, #264, #279, before it's finally dropped, with only a further brief reference at #295, I think. Split also continues attacking Rain by proxy in
#295 by attacking Quaroath. Rain never really replies or acknowledges it, though.
Stels
Aye
- Possible reason to want Quaroath dead (Q had attacked him on and off, in pregame and day 1 and 2). Q was wishy washy on him up to the end, and voted/said so several times with regard to whether Stels was scum or not. Q also jokingly voted split early on in pregame/start of D1, and Stels jumped on him to defend split. - However this is weak primarily because it started in pregame. It could have been overreaction, even though it's long since been water under the bridge, but that kind of "too obvious" overreaction seems unlikely since everyone has shown themselves to be relatively mature and proficient (unlike some of the other newbie games) thereafter.
- Like Nacho, they ultimately were both on the T-Bone wagon at the end, though this is weak as well, as I was on it too, and so was Nacho. Plus the other wagon was his own..
- Split and Stels have barely talked about each other the entire game at all, except to say they think each other is town. They haven't attacked or pushed each other on any points, that is. Which is why this aye/nay list is woefully short.
Nay
- In
#156, argued against split's "Lynch Muh in D1" post and called it tunneling.
-
#284 is weakly pro-town, at least the bit about not caring whether he looked town or scum.
I think it's either Nacho or Rain that's split's partner, though more by process of elimination than anything. I was leaning toward Nacho because I find it very hard to believe that Split would gambit and name two townies instead of one town and one scum. Until I read what Stels said, that they may have been banking on his emotion from being vindicated since split claims both of them are town. I did not realise that in my initial read.
But I find it interesting now that I've done a read through and initial list, that Rain decided to vote anyway without waiting for my promised case post - he brings up points that I can and will try to refute, but without even waiting for my answer to his question, which he posted after my supposed "flailing", he now wholeheartedly agrees with split and is willing to vote and lynch me
even though he's an IC and this is two days into Lylo, and Nacho hasn't even checked in after the claim yet
. This is not townie play - you cannot be that sure if you ARE town! To me, this is a strong hint that Rain is panicking because Stels turns out to be leaning against their gambit of naming both of them town, and Rain is now trying to use absolutes and appeal to emotion to force through a quick lynch. Oops? Scumteam.
FoS: Rain
.
