Bloodbath in Camden - Game Over!

[Toogeloo]

And as soon as the first person started talking, the floodgates opened and all hell broke loose.

Hey Guys!

-getslynched.

[Toogeloo]

Well, there was yours ^_^.

This is the slowest moving start to the fastest moving game I've ever played lol.

[Toogeloo]

I like advocating any lynch that isn't mine on the first page, but the votes on King are highly misreped considering all he asked for was reasons for votes that were on me. He at least gave one, everyone else who voted me didn't even say hello, just plopped down a vote. I can agree that reasoning, no matter how shitty and weak, should still be given in a vote, otherwise it just looks opportunistic at best.

[Toogeloo]

I like advocating any lynch that isn't mine on the first page, but the votes on King are highly misreped considering all he asked for was reasons for votes that were on me. He at least gave one, everyone else who voted me didn't even say hello, just plopped down a vote. I can agree that reasoning, no matter how shitty and weak, should still be given in a vote, otherwise it just looks opportunistic at best.

I'm calling this BS.

Giving a joking reason to vote you and just randomly voting you are the same thing, to me at least, because neither offers any legitimate content besides a vote. Such is RVS. And you are missing the point and addressing the wrong issue in this post. We are not voting him because he gave a reason for his vote on you, we are voting him because he scrutinized random votes, which after all, are random and should not fall under any scrutiny.

No, he asked where reasons were instead of just posting a vote. If he really had a problem with the votes on me, he would have unvoted himself. Read his post, it simply asks for reasons behind votes, which is something that should be expected from everyone.

[Toogeloo]

@toog, why did you defend king?

People attacked him for being afraid of the wagon on me (despite him being one of the votes) which is a misrepresentation of what his post stated. If people are going to call him scum, it wasn't because of him being afraid of votes.

I have a null read on King, like pretty much most everyone, I do not like misrepresentations of people's posts though. Anyone who claims that King was afraid of votes has no clue what they are reading.

[Toogeloo]

Toogeloo I find it funny you are shooting down other reasons for FoSs but not pushing any sort of accusations forward on your own. Its definitely noteworthy.

Am I supposed to have a scum read on page 2? I guess amongst all these people with scum reads on page 1, it seems a little abnormal. That's not how I play though, get used to it.

[Toogeloo]

That's not how I play though, get used to it.

[Toogeloo]

You realize we have 4 days? Repeating yourself is quite possible the least efficient thing you can do.

I play on a site that has 48 hour days and 24 hour nights. Lynches are run plurality, just like this game. This game is still slower than the norm I am used to. You don't have to worry about my technique, worry about your own.

[Toogeloo]

Since Slaxx wants me to find someone to pressure, here is my list:

07. GreyICE
08. bobsnox
09. CJMiller
12. Lady Lambdadelta
13. TheLonging

I would guess fairly high odds someone in there is scum ^_^. Should be pretty easy to guess how I came up with the list too, considering the day is a quarter over.


I prefer to gut read people though, and in many cases I tend to town read before scum read. With this game's current activity, Town Reads are easier to come by.


Of the people who have posted, Exe, Me=Weird, and Shattered Viewpoint have posted a single time, each voting for someone different, so they are really no better than my list above. So yeah... I think I like Me=Weird the least due to being on a random vote that wasn't one of the two wagons on page 1 (where he had posted at the end of it), though none of them are exemplary in any way. Still, about half the game is completely inactive in the sense of participation, so I don't really feel like targeting much of anyone active in terms of "pressure" atm.

I do think Slaxx is trying too hard, but if he's never played in this type of game before, he can be forgiven. Someone will get lynched at the end of the day, even if the lead candidate only has 2 votes, so hopefully his panties get unruffled a bit.

[Toogeloo]

So lets dance Panda. What do you think of these?

- Slaxx is probably town

Already gave my impression of Slaxx

- EmpKing is like nigh-confirmed town

I must fail at seeing it. He has 2 votes and a comment. He hasn't really done anything beyond that. Null.

- Do not like CooLDoG. Sounded like a preemptive apology for a scumslip. That being said, I think CooLDoG has more potential to be a decent player than some people give him credit for, so would welcome a general improvement. Just not if he decides to do it when he's scum

I've never played with CooLDoG, so I had no intention of judging him. I didn't like the post since it sets up a bit of an AoE before anything even gets rolling, but beyond that, if he really is preconceived as a VI, then it's Null for now since he could just stick his foot in his mouth.

- Don't like that post by TheLonging. Ignoring what's going on to attack the flaming disaster in the room is kinda bad. Furcolow will be a Furcolow... which is not to say he don't draw scum, but what?

I read it as he hasn't actually read the thread yet, and that was his way of showing he was here and will be back later.

[Toogeloo]

@toogy, do you understand the meaning of the word meaningful? Because you putting pressure on those players isn't meaningful and it doesn't really help the town. If anything else your posts are anti-town.

Do you know what the definition of "facetious" is? The post was not intended to be hardcore pressure, it was meant to slap Slaxx in the face that he demand I pressure someone. I pointed out that half the game wasn't active at the time, and that my playstyle works in a different way. For the hard of seeing, I basically stated 8 players (half the game) that I wanted pressure on. Obviously, that isn't going to happen.


I still don't see how GreyICE can call Empking practically confirmed town from earlier, but the latest series of votes do show some conviction on his part.

[Toogeloo]

I would be inclined to go with either a Furculow or Exe wagon atm. I will not be voting for King1216. CooLDoG I am not as interested in simply because he is putting in more effort than the former two I mentioned.

[Toogeloo]

Not my general policy, but if you consider activity an important factor, it does help to get rid of the bad inactives than the bad actives on Day 1. Bad actives tend to draw more attention from scanners, and they tend to eventually shoot themselves in the foot if they are scum because they talk so much.

I do think it's pretty terrible though that a majority of King's lynchers have very little involvement in the game thus far.

[Toogeloo]

^@GreyICE

you guys are talking too fast all of a sudden lol.

[Toogeloo]

<3 LadyLambadelta

Unvote Vote: bobsnox.

THIS IS THE RIGHT LYNCH NOW.

I agree with this. LLD deserves more love though for that.

<3<3<3<3<3

Vote: bobsnox

[Toogeloo]

How about in the two hours since bobs last response of "what???" he hasn't refuted or even attempted to redirect or defend it. If it were me being misrepped, I would be doing what I could to fix it, especially since he is now the new lynch leader.

[Toogeloo]

I would be inclined to go with either a Furculow or Exe wagon atm.

I will not be voting for King1216. CooLDoG I am not as interested in simply because he is putting in more effort than the former two I mentioned.

I did advocate wagoning 2 people yesterday, early on, neither with votes, and one of them has flipped scum. You people can go to hell ^_^.

Vote: Furculow

[Toogeloo]

Furculow needs more reasons than what have already been stated?

You want me to start a new case from the ground up or something?

[Toogeloo]

Furcolow has two posts and is quite possibly the easiest target here. I'm not impressed.

Well, thankfully I don't look to seek approval from other people.

[Toogeloo]

Lol obvscum is scared of votes in RVS. Nice.

Vote: King

btw... you King voters are


duuuuuumb...



Exe's first post of the game. He was super bussing his teammate on page one, mirite?

[Toogeloo]

Analysis of noteworthy posts as I read:

37 - Bad omgus. King is classic scum trying to find someone on his wagon that he can use to derail it.
44 - The connections between King and Toog are ridiculous. Something is going on here, and I get a STRONG feeling of scumbuddies.
47 - Scumpoints for toog. Town has nothing to fear from accusing people. The whole "It's too early, I don't need reads" is a stereotypical scum comment.
55 - Toog is pointlessly posturing. Meta is meh.
62 -

Confirms the toog-scum read

. His only scumreads are based on posts made. Easy road is easy.
66 -

If I had to choose one scumtell and discard all others it'd be jumping on 'easy targets' under pressure.

QFT
69 - Reads like Cooldog town that I've seen in recent games.
72 - Really? Parrotting the "votes were on someone else" argument? That was a bad argument when King used it to omgus me, and it still is. He got jumpy when a wagon formed on page 1, and I find that to be a solid scumtell.
76 -
79 - Poptajo, I don't understand something about your list: You barely even mentioned TheLonging...how is he that high on your scumlist?
82 - Yep, empking is probtown.
83 - So hypocritical. +Scumpoints to LLD
90 - WOW that first part is hilariously bad. That's totally null, and the fact that you tried to use it as evidence suggests connections. Pop is probscum with toog.
102 -

Confirming my scumread on toog

. You're only scumhunting based on number of posts. Laziness is noted.
114 - Bob is randomly speculating hoping it will stick. He just shot way up on my scummeter.
125 - WOW totally missed Bob's vote. Scumslip noted. Hmm. Lld might be town.
139 - LOL backpedalling like a boss. Bobscum confirmed.
159 - When bob flips scum, TheLonging is probscum. He lists Bob as scum, and yet doesn't vote or even talk about joining the wagon?

Nothing much notable in the next few pages. I am fine with finishing this. This has been a content rich day, and this lynch is solid like steel.

Unvote. Vote: Bobsnox

Exe was bussing me as well aparently, mirite?

[Toogeloo]

You're saying that like it isn't plausible.

Not to mention, that's RVS and should not be taken into account. You're just screwing with what scum was thinking. You don't want to think on things on how confirmed scum was thinking.

Actually, King's questioning of the votes with no reason is the declared movement from the RVS by many people. All votes after his post were considered legit hunting. King immediately counter votes Exe. So apparently, that was all staged, is that what you are telling me?

[Toogeloo]

Rereads, I want GreyICE dead.

Subtlely defends Exe in many of his posts.

"Exe votes for me, I'll vote back!" = bad
"Oh no, I'm scummy, lets go pick on CooLDoG" = worse

I would be inclined to go with either a Furculow or Exe wagon atm. I will not be voting for King1216. CooLDoG I am not as interested in simply because he is putting in more effort than the former two I mentioned.

Huh. I'll agree that those two aren't putting in any effort. Toog, is it your general policy that day 1 lynches should be on lurkers/people generally not trying?

Interestingly...

Not my general policy, but if you consider activity an important factor, it does help to get rid of the bad inactives than the bad actives on Day 1. Bad actives tend to draw more attention from scanners, and they tend to eventually shoot themselves in the foot if they are scum because they talk so much.

I do think it's pretty terrible though that a majority of King's lynchers have very little involvement in the game thus far.

That's a fair enough position. I've often said when it comes down to a vote, I'll vote for a somewhat scummy lurker over a somewhat scummy active player - you'll always get reads on the active player later, the lurker will lurk.

Unvote

Vote: Furcolow

BANDWAGON HO!

Makes me doubt the Furculow lynch, especially since I am starting to get a really bad feeling in my gut about GreyICE. Of the two I propose, he goes for Furculow...

Now back to the game - I have a rule when I come into these sorts of games. Scum are going to be looking for the weakest members of the pack. I mean think about if you're scum and need a mislynch. Do you choose to try and mislynch Fate or DrMyShotty? Yeah.

Looking at the player list, I decided that if any point someone's scum list looked like below, I'd pretty much just autolynch them:
populartajo
Furcolow
CooLDoG

Not to say that none of them are scum, but there's what? Like 4 scum in this game? If all three drew it, hell will freeze over.

And what do I see day 1? Pokings at Furcolow and CooLDoG.

At the moment, I agree with you. Furcolow is worth looking into. CooLDoG, on the other hand, looks like scum poking for a mislynch. Look at his arguments - he really does seem to be trying. Now as the 'worst poster of MafiaScum' who does really want to improve, do you think he'd honestly start trying to improve in a game he happened to draw scum in? Or is he really trying to do his best as a townie?

...more following up of Furculow pressure. Now I really doubt my Furculow vote.

Oh for god's sake, Exe, that hammer was miserable.

FUCKING SHIT

Yeah.

Fuck this, whether Exe is bussing or not, that Quickhammer was a scumclaim.

This looks like distancing damage control to me.

Unvote;
Vote: GreyICE

[Toogeloo]

Still the first statement still stands. You're thinking about this way too hard, and defending King way too hard.

Occam's Razor for now. There is zero grounds to lynch King today imo.

Makes Grey look worse to me as well since His vote is for King, even after stating wanting to follow through on CooLDoG and Furculow yesterday.

[Toogeloo]

Toote doesn't seem that bad, to be honest. Maybe I'm just a bit tired, but I don't see what everybody sees that's horrible. I'll try again though the only thing that I saw that was bad, was just that last comment on Page 1. It felt a bit iffy to me.

Just this.

I called him town after reading TL's case. I stated that the last point was valid, but everything else was stretched.

That's enough to keep him at neutral at least

. Town because he's really not that bad.

King needs to die first anyway. No objections are allowed.

So I went from Neutral to...

Still the first statement still stands. You're thinking about this way too hard, and defending King way too hard.

I think one of you is required to die today.

Interesting...

[Toogeloo]

Why is King so worth defending here?

Because unless I am insane, I honestly feel he is of town alignment. And I highly doubt I am insane.

[Toogeloo]

Okay, yeah. That was a solid post.

King, what do you think of Toogaloo's posting overall?

If we had to pick one of the lurkers ('cause scum is in the lurkers, this is almost always true) as scum, who is it?

Unvote

Vote:Toogaloo

Not happy with the chainsaw attack into me. OMGUS? No. I don't feel it had a solid basis in fact.

Come on Toogaloo, what is it about attacking easy targets that's town? CooLDoG is an easy mislynch. Some people call him a 'policy lynch.' I disagree (I reserve that for posters like Zang and Werewolf555) but attacking him in response to pressure was just weak.

Pedit: ninjaed by a bunch.

First off, I am suspicious of you for my read between the lines of your Exe interactions, it's not Chainsaw since it has very little to do with anything about King. Your attack on King just makes me more sure I am probably on the right track. Secondly, I am after you. Are you calling yourself an easy target that is town? I stated I had no interest in CooLDoG yesterday, and I maintain that I still have no interest in him today. So are you attacking me because I am attacking you for your overall feelings towards CooLDoG?

It's funny you talk about attacking easy targets, because I think King falls into that category. 2nd leading lynch, RVS at that though. I mean we can't have it both ways. If he was RVS vote leader, then it doesn't really count right, because RVS votes don't mean shit... right?

PEDIT:

HA. YOU'RE TRYING TO SET UP A LYNCH ON ME.

I SEE WHAT YOU DOIN' FOOL.

So are you saying that you have suspected me, you just mentioned me as neutral previously on accident?

[Toogeloo]

By the way... I think sarcasm, facetiousness, and even smileys are lost on some people.

I am abrasive and add smileys to try and show people I don't care about insults and stupid comments. You take it as me over-reacting... whatevs.


Over-reacting would be me modkilling myself to prove that I am town (been there, done that).

[Toogeloo]

I strongly believe that scum usually don't bus each other straight out of the gate.

If you feel this way, then wouldn't you feel better about King given the vote and reasoning given by Exe on page 1?

[Toogeloo]

UNVOTE: Toog

He's satisfied my complaints and more.

How is anything he wrote satisfying?

It makes me hungry for blood.

My vote was based on his play being poor and lacking content.

It no longer has that problem.

TOWN
--------------------
Slaxx
Hiraki
TL
-
CoolDog
GI
Me=Weird
TC
Shattered
-
Tajo
King(???)

Toog

Furcolow
-------------------------------
SCUM

I read town on King yesterday, but with Bob's flip, and Exe's vote, King looks bad now. I still have my doubts though, hence the question marks.

eh?

[Toogeloo]

Sorry I'm scum, so I have to go for the easy lynch.

ALso, this isn't funny. I hate jokes in mafia. I have said that many times, and I have yet to find a case when a joke in mafia is funny.

So a dog walks into a bar...

[Toogeloo]

@LLD: I like the way he's letting us into his mind while his opinion is being changed. It shows me that he was writing this while reading and didn't really go back to edit it to make it sound more "consistent." Scum tend to be much more careful about their usage of phrases and posts. In other words I think the structure of this post are a town tell.

And do you find insults to be town tells?

Structure of the post? Also don't you edit your posts after going through the thread to add in details and fix up stuff?

I don't. I pretty much post my thoughts as I hit each post. For example, I typed this up without reading anything after this post.

[Toogeloo]

There is obviously little support for my case on GreyICE, but having reread pop's case on TheLonging, I find it agreeable. I won't vote for King, and Furculow comes off better to me based on the interactions of other, more suspicious, players (in my opinion).

Pine having issues with TheLonging, gives a potential wagon a glimmer of hope as well.

Unvote;
Vote: TheLonging

[Toogeloo]

Also you don't like the fact that ICE has no support so you pick a popular wagon (me) and jump on it. I read that like 10 times and I still get the same impression.

You are hardly a popular wagon. King... that is a popular wagon. Furc... there's another. You have half the votes of the other two. Don't dress it up as more than that at the moment.

If someone doesn't mind... preferably each member on the King wagon... would you please explain how King is scum. I don't want more of the bullshit that the 5th post of the game makes him obvscum (hint, it doesn't), or that since he was the second leading lynch and we lynched town, he must be scum (almost never true). I want to see an actual case. What has he done that makes him the most important person to kill today?

I personally feel that you guys are just out for King blood, and giving scum a chance to pile on it since he is (for reasons I don't comprehend apparently) an easy lynch. I still lean towards Occam's Razor, at the very least for the very next day of the game, that he shouldn't be lynched based solely on his and Exe's interactions. Yes, I understand that it's possible for scum to bus each other, and OMGUS each other, but I do not think today is the day that he should be focused on, unless there is a case that I missed, which please... enlighten me.


As I mentioned earlier, I am VERY confident in King's alignment, and I won't be voting him today. And personally, I think people are being very narrow for focusing on him (at this time) given Exe's flip.

[Toogeloo]

Toog how do you feel about LL?

LLD seems kind of bipolar this game. Aside from that, kind of null without further investigation.

I like LLD yesterday, but some bias might be present because she defended King and I a titch yesterday. Today, she was riding my nuts a bit harder, but as soon as I posted a case (even one no one really seemed to care for) she withdrew, so she dropped a bit from my townie vibe, back to neutral.

[Toogeloo]

CD, that last post by you was uncalled for.

[Toogeloo]

It's Plurality lynching. No Majority is necessary.

Someone is getting lynched today. King is not the correct lynch.

[Toogeloo]

It's Plurality lynching. No Majority is necessary.

Someone is getting lynched today. King is not the correct lynch.

You've given no good reason why this is the case. Therefore, I'm going to say that it is the correct lynch. Why am I right? Because I've already said more than enough on it.

I'd like to think my Occam's Razor defense is at least enough to not condemn him the day a scum he was fighting with died. It's better than the argument that he is scum because he was the second leading wagon (there were only two real wagons yesterday), or anything else I've seen.

[Toogeloo]

Won't be shot by vigs, wha..?

A VT claim is perfect Vig fodder. The Vig shouldn't be playing god with PR claims imo, but offing a questionable VT is exactly what a Vig is for.

And it takes effort to get a wagon on ANY already previously claimed role, doesn't matter if it's VT. A claimed Doc living for several days could even be WIFOMed that he is being kept alive as mislynch fodder, and just being roleblocked or outplayed on his protections.

[Toogeloo]

I have even less reason to believe that King is scum. Scum would not unvote the leading wagon to go off and be the sole vote on another player, and put himself in a tie with the player he just unvoted.


Activity suggests scum is trying to coast to a mislynch imo.

[Toogeloo]

But it opens the door for one vote for King or one unvote for Furc to change the lynch. Scum wouldn't take a 2 vote padding and change it to a 1 vote difference.


I still say both Furc and King are town, especially given activity levels.

[Toogeloo]

@Toog: What exactly do you mean regarding the activity? And while you're at it, who exactly are your scum reads?

I'd be fine with a TheLonging or GreyICE lynch today. Furculow if I HAD to choose between he and King.

[Toogeloo]

I also had some issues with Hiraki earlier today come to think of it. He's kind of slipped off my radar.


I'm not defending everyone. I am defending King. I only think Furc is town based on my other suspicions.



In terms of activity, with the exception of King, we haven't had a vote or unvote, nor a real solid argument for any other case in almost 48 hours I think. I honestly get the vibe that Scum is not in any danger today, and therefore they are willing to let town lynch itself by being as unswaying as possible.

[Toogeloo]

I think Furc might be town based on how I feel about a couple people voting for him.

[Toogeloo]

Unvote;
Vote: Furculow

I don't want any last minute shenanigans.

PEdit: removing vote for now. Making sure this isn't a hammer.

Next time anyone strikethroughs a vote, it's going to count.

[Toogeloo]

Complete collection of all Regfan's posts. He never voted, but he did take several stances on players.

Hey everyone, I'm very aware the lynch mechanic means shorterned days so I'll try to get through an entire re-read today, if there's anything particular you want me to look out for upon re-reading state so now.

I'm 18 pages into the game and I'm going to get coffee with a friend but I'll finish the rest after. Odds are this will change drastically between now and when I finish reading through the thread but in the meantime, here's some food for though:

populartajo is obvious town. Cooldog is obvious town. Hiraki is town. Toog is town. TheLonging is town. Grey is leaning town.

Slaxx is null. LL is null. Pine is null.

Tcl is probably scum. King is probably scum.

Furc I'm undecided on, my read on him flips every other post of his.

Finally completed an entire read through of this game. First of this game mechanic is incredibly mafia sided, therefore I'm assuming to attain a balance there would four mafia total, with three left alive meaning we should have multiple msylnches avaliable still.

CooLDoG - Town.

Intially the first few posts he had made me lean scum on him, however once the RVS period was over he has conistently town-told. The fact he shows willingless and intent to vote elsewhere from Bob here comes of as a major town-tell, mafia have no need to fight against a town lynch in this form of format, it just creates the chance a lynch might suddenly switch. The open admittance to finding a case against a lurker to be weak here also comes of as a major town-tell, if he was mafia he could simply undistrubt the flow. I also read posts #215, #231 and #358 from him as town-tells, I'll go into these later if anyone has any questions.

Popular - Town.

I'm not understanding how anyone had a scum-read on him at any point in this game becuase he's been by far the biggest town-read I've had throughout the entire read throughout of the thread. He openely admitted to having too many town reads here which again has no mafia motivation behind, stating multiple town-reads reduces the suspect pool of which they can lynch from. This is furthered by the fact that he voted Exe here, there was obvious intent towards moving the lynch elsewhere by the fact that the biggest suspect at the time King was in his town-reads. If kings mafia, then he has no need to defend one mafia to buss another, if Kings town he has no real need to defend a townie and buss his partner. I also read posts #155, #384, #387 and #426 from him as town-tells, again I'll go into these if needed.

Slaxx, please explain what made you believe popular was mafia earlier.

Toogeloo - Town.

Again not understanding the constant suggestion of his lynch, it seems to revolve entirely around the fact he was defending King during the RVS period and stated he believed King was town afterwards - I see neither of these being strong scum-tells whatsoever. He brings up Exes interactions with various players, notibaly himself and King an an attempt to show that they are town here and here, I've found mafia generally like to avoid discussion revolving around their dead partners. The biggest town-tell I've noticed from him is here if he were mafia he would have nill reason whatsoever to push the lynch towards GreyICE one of the loudest and most active players throughout this thread where there multiple possible lurkerlynches avaliable.

GreyICE - Town.

This read isn't as strong as my previous town-reads, but I don't see him as scum at all. I read this as a strong town-tell, pointing out the likely easy lynches in the thread has no mafia motivation behind it whereas it allows us to keep track of those pushing likely easy lynches. I probably shouldn't be reading into this but I find his suggestion and request for an extention deadline as a town-tell in some respect, mafia want days to be as short as possible to allow for town to be rushed into lynching and outing power-roles.

GreyICE, what possible advantages do you see in getting vig to shoot the VT claim and lynching elsewhere apart from reducing the chances of the vig hitting a power-role?

I need a break so I'll complete the rest of my reads later tonight. We still have two days until the deadline, right?

Grey, do you mind explaining Post #650, I'm unable to work out it's intention nor am I able to determine who it's directed towards.

Slaxx - Leaning town.

I had reservations about him earlier due to the fact he was attempting to push a popular lynch but they've been put to ease to a degree since then. His reaction-test hammer reads as a geninue town-tell as does his reaction towards Parama ruining the ability to use it. Throughout the game he's shown general openness with his reads and constant attempts to attain others reads and reasoning the best example I could find was here.

Slaxx, since your removal of the Popular FoS what do your current scum-reads lie as?

TheLonging - Unsure.

To all those who believe TL is mafia can you put together a case in the next 12 or so hours, I'd like to read it before I state my final read of him. In particular I want your thoughts on Posts #63, #159, #163 by him.

Hiraki - Leaning town.

My town read on him has faded a little since my page 18 read through, a great deal of his posts since then seem to show filler and in some situations fencesitting. I do however read his earlier play as likelytown, some of his posts read as geninue town frustration, examples of these would be here and here. His interaction with Exe makes me highly doubt they were partners and considering the night one kills I'm doubting the inclusion of two mafia teams, therefore Hiraki has to be town, an exampe of the interaction is here.

I would also say that I am shocked he flipped scum. I honestly was getting a town vibe from him due to his eagerness and posting reads the way he was.

This leads me to believe that the extra kills at night are coming from a Serial Killer. I cannot fathom how a town-aligned vig could look at these posts and consider them scum and worth shooting Regfan over after his limited involvement in the game. My guess is that the Serial Killer was aiming for someone eager and pro-town in appearance and happened to hit Scum... again.



From these posts, King should be considered town at this point. Scum down a member, would not continue to bus their scum buddy (from the second post) who was just as close to being lynched yesterday as Town-furc was.

I would also guess that scum was weaved into the "Town reads" He has multiple town reads listed, so I am willing to bet at least one member that Regfan called town is probably scum.

[Toogeloo]

Eh... I don't see Tajo and TL as scum together.

If I were to pick one, I would be picking TheLonging.

[Toogeloo]

Toog, now reading your post, what is your opinion on the following?

Tajo-SK
TL-Scum

I've like Tajo, so if he is SK, I will be a sad panda. I don't think there is enough information yet to really determine a SK; hell, King could be SK... I just know he is almost assuredly not mafia. SK speculation should stay with pretty much what I posted in the last post atm, as it does us no good to guess Vig or SK. If it's Vig, they are better off staying anonymous, if it's SK, they will stay anonymous (obv).

[Toogeloo]

It's hard to really town hunt with my suspicion of a SK, but I do know that CooLDoG, pops, and King are all town. The town on pop's wagon are in total tunnel mode, and I highly doubt any of them are rereading or re-evaluating the game since the flips happened.

It's too late now (I think), but:

Vote: TheLonging

Votals were wrong with GI's quotes. Both SV and Regfan never voted according to their ISOs, so how Regfan was on CooLDoG, I do not know, if it is true though, it further makes CooLDoG look better.



As for pop's jump to Furc, I was prepared to do the same exact thing. I thought Furc was town, but I was less sure of his alignment than I was of King's. I was prepared to make sure Furc would go before King did since I didn't want to risk any shenanigans.


TheLonging and GreyICE (Hiraki in a distant third) continue to be my suspects. At least one of them is town, so whomever it is needs to wake up, take the blinders off, and actually read what's going on in the interactions.

[Toogeloo]

Defeat means that I can hop on now.

Unvote, Vote: Populartajo

Btw. I don't care what Tajo's flip is. There's no way I'm going on TL tomorrow. King needs to die next.

King is pretty much conf. town at this point, much to my chagrin.

I think TL could be the proper move, but I need to reread.

Psychoanalysis suggests that TL might be town in there as well. Would confscum openly claim defense of his buddy in such a manner?


Again, the mafia death is puzzling and neither affirms or denies the existence of a SK or Vig. Since we only have one Mafioso left in all likelihood, how does everyone feel about the person who is responsible for the mafia deaths to step forward? If it's the Vig, he has nothing to fear, he has done an amazing job, and it buys him a pass today. SK probably would stay hidden, or gambit claiming Vig, but could get shot by the last mafia for it.


I will evaluate Hiraki more later. I had about 8 beers earlier, so I need to head to bed and look forward to my throbber in the morning.

[Toogeloo]

After an extensive VCA that you will see below, I have found a place I am happy to put my vote.

VOTE: CoolDog

HoS: Tclawren

FoS: TheLonging

One of these three is your last scum (assuming a 4 person scum team), and likely-hood of each one being scum descends as you go down the list.

Ok... keeping an open mind.

VCA STARTS HERE

If you look at the original King1216 wagon that got 7 votes, this is who you see on it.

Remember, King is obv town.


[7] KingTwelveSixteen -

Hiraki

,

Empking

, CooLDoG,

Slaxx

,

Furcolow

,

Exe

,

bobsnox

Only 2 scum on a 7 person wagon? I mean, sure, it's possible that the other two scum were both off doing something else... but why wouldn't they try and take the opportunity for an easy Day 1 lynch?

WIFOM

I'm going to ignore the Bobsnox lynch, because it is my opinion that the scum slip I found was legit, and by all right he should have flipped scum.

He just didn't

Wouldn't his mislynch also have scum on it... considering your previous reasoning that scum would try and take the opportunity for an easy Day 1 lynch?

Next wagons to look at are Day 2 Dueling wagons of Furc and King1216.



[6] KingTwelveSixteen -

Furcolow

, tclawren,

Hiraki

, CooLDoG,

populartajo

,

Slaxx

[4] Furcolow - TheLonging, Lady Lambdadelta, GreyICE, KingTwelveSixteen

No one has flipped who was on the Furc wagon at that point... but the real interesting thing is the two people left alive who were on the King1216 wagon.

CoolDoG and Tclawren.

I have my doubts about TC... but this is the second time CoolDog has been on a town wagon (Yes, I know King hasn't flipped town or anything, but if King isn't town I'll eat my hat.)

And this time, there is only one other scum on the wagon with him. Assuming a 4 person scum team (with Exe dead making it 3), you would expect a potential mislynch wagon like that to have at least one more scum on it.

WIFOM... again. You also have to consider that Furcolow and King were competing mislynch wagons, and there were only 3 scum, so both mislynch wagons can't have more than one scum on them, and that's even operating under the assumption all 3 scum were trying to get on either King or Furc. Why would all the scum be on King only? I think looking at those votals, there is probably a scum on Furc as well since he is also town, and a mislynch on King or Furc is all that matters.

Here's the lynch that day:

[7] Furcolow - TheLonging, Lady Lambdadelta,

Pine

,

populartajo

,

KingTwelveSixteen

, tclawren,

Slaxx

There are no flipped scum on this wagon yet.

Is it possible that town lynched Furcolow of its own accord? Yes, but not likely. There is a plausible case to be made that all the scums were on the King wagon, but I'd rather believe that Tclawren (who was on the King wagon too) jumped over to the Furc wagon to get the mislynch.

Agreed that scum was probably on this wagon, see my point above. But who are you trying to argue as scum... CooLDoG (not on this lynch) or tclawren? Or are you just trying to set up both of them....?

Day 3:

There were only 2 vote counts in Day 3

[4] populartajo - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, TheLonging,

Hiraki

[2] TheLonging -

Pine

,

populartajo

[1] KingTwelveSixteen - tclawren
[1] Lady Lambdadelta - CooLDoG

Here is an interesting development. Tclawren is back on King and CoolDog is voting me. There wouldn't be much of a problem with CoolDog voting me, because he has expressed suspicion of me all game (wrong but consistent).

The real kicker about CoolDog is the next vote count.

Since scum is down to two members, they need to work together for the mislynches I imagine. Since pop was the only focus of yesterday, I will bet they were both on him at the end of the day. Again though, you are trying to build a case on CooLDoG, but you sully tclawren at the same time, like you are trying set up two separate cases for when one flips town.

[6] populartajo - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, TheLonging,

Hiraki

, CooLDoG,

populartajo

[1] TheLonging -

Pine

[1] KingTwelveSixteen - tclawren

He switches his vote over to the Tajo wagon, which prompts Tajo to self-hammer as town.

Again, only one scum is on that lynch wagon that is revealed. Remember, this is Day 3, so both Regfan and Exe are dead and we are assuming 2 scums left.

It would make sense that both scum would be on this wagon... or that the scum team is Hiraki and TC.

I agree... it does make sense for both scum to be on this wagon (see my above point). Again... you bring tclawren back into it again.

About TheLonging: I want you to examine the wagons above. Pine is the sole voter for TheLonging. With Tajo's case on TL and his dying breath being "Lynch TL", it would make sense for a TL/Hiraki scum team to kill the only person in the game who was voting for one of them. Thus, it eliminates someone who would potentially believe Tajo's "case" and follow up on it today.

That's your VCA. Potential scums: CoolDog, Tclawren, TheLonging

My overall thoughts... I think you were spot on with analysis... there are certain truths about it. But I think you got your names wrong.


Honestly, CooLDoG's violation of Rule 1 comes off in a town spoken manner, I don't think he is mafia. I also am getting cold feet on TheLonging due to the huge amount of interaction from Hikari revolving around TLs posts. I haven't had any beef with tclaw, but I haven't analyzed him either, but something about the votals has made him stick out a bit in the sense that he is doing his own thing.

If you can't tell where I am going with this... I could just as easily plug your name into your analysis and get the same result. A good con contains elements of truth, right LLD?

I don't use these very often, but...

FoS: LLD

@GreyIce: At 7, with 1 scum left, but two night kills a night, we could very easily be at 4 players tomorrow with a town mislynch and two town killed tonight. Extremely scary if the setup includes a SK, hence the reason I was asking about the Vig stepping forward.

[Toogeloo]

@Toog: How can you throw just any name in there?

The votes are all there. Votes don't lie.

I didn't say I could throw

any

name in there. I said I could throw your name in there.

I'm going to ignore the Bobsnox lynch, because it is my opinion that the scum slip I found was legit, and by all right he should have flipped scum.

He just didn't

You were on this mislynch.

Next wagons to look at are Day 2 Dueling wagons of Furc and King1216.



[6] KingTwelveSixteen -

Furcolow

, tclawren,

Hiraki

, CooLDoG,

populartajo

,

Slaxx

[4] Furcolow - TheLonging, Lady Lambdadelta, GreyICE, KingTwelveSixteen

No one has flipped who was on the Furc wagon at that point... but the real interesting thing is the two people left alive who were on the King1216 wagon.

CoolDoG and Tclawren.

I have my doubts about TC... but this is the second time CoolDog has been on a town wagon (Yes, I know King hasn't flipped town or anything, but if King isn't town I'll eat my hat.)

And this time, there is only one other scum on the wagon with him. Assuming a 4 person scum team (with Exe dead making it 3), you would expect a potential mislynch wagon like that to have at least one more scum on it.

Competing wagons. Scum knows both are town, so spread the love, get one or the other lynched. Who's on Furc... you are.

Here's the lynch that day:

[7] Furcolow - TheLonging, Lady Lambdadelta,

Pine

,

populartajo

,

KingTwelveSixteen

, tclawren,

Slaxx

There are no flipped scum on this wagon yet.

Is it possible that town lynched Furcolow of its own accord? Yes, but not likely. There is a plausible case to be made that all the scums were on the King wagon, but I'd rather believe that Tclawren (who was on the King wagon too) jumped over to the Furc wagon to get the mislynch.

You are on this mislynch.

Day 3:

There were only 2 vote counts in Day 3

[4] populartajo - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, TheLonging,

Hiraki

[2] TheLonging -

Pine

,

populartajo

[1] KingTwelveSixteen - tclawren
[1] Lady Lambdadelta - CooLDoG

Here is an interesting development. Tclawren is back on King and CoolDog is voting me. There wouldn't be much of a problem with CoolDog voting me, because he has expressed suspicion of me all game (wrong but consistent).

The real kicker about CoolDog is the next vote count.

[6] populartajo - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, TheLonging,

Hiraki

, CooLDoG,

populartajo

[1] TheLonging -

Pine

[1] KingTwelveSixteen - tclawren

He switches his vote over to the Tajo wagon, which prompts Tajo to self-hammer as town.

Again, only one scum is on that lynch wagon that is revealed. Remember, this is Day 3, so both Regfan and Exe are dead and we are assuming 2 scums left.

It would make sense that both scum would be on this wagon... or that the scum team is Hiraki and TC.

You were on this mislynch.



As you can see, your VCA is clearly tailored to your desire to form a list of suitable lynch candidates. You made it appear as if you wanted CD to get lynched today, but you made sure to pave the road for tclawren as an alternative or tomorrow's lynch. Your name just as easily fits into your analysis which makes it flawed and obviously makes you look awful at the same time.

@Toog: Your FOS was well thought and structured. It made perfect sense. Why didn't you vote?

I'm attempting not to be impulsive on this day. I do have other suspicions; I have not completely forgotten about my disdain for GreyICE (though I am starting to consider that I am tunneled). I also want to get some discussion on the Vig/SK possibility which is being somewhat ignored since it can bite us in the butt if we are complacent about it.

For the record, I'm curious to know; what do people think of me?

This is a question I really do want answered btw

You aren't cleared of any suspicion, but I do have a sinking suspicion you were being set up for mislynch on the days prior since discussion has been about "you" versus "the people who have been mislynched." I think at the moment, I have suspended your suspicion in favor of LLD though.

[Toogeloo]

@Toog: Yes, they can be applied to me.

But I know I'm town, so why would I apply a VCA to say otherwise?

It's not a very good analysis then, is it.

[Toogeloo]

I absolutely drew attention to the fact that it's probably an SK instead of a Vig (I was the first person to mention this). Wouldn't it make more sense to let someone else draw that conclusion, and then keep my mouth shut, or to immediately claim Vig before anyone made the correlation?


Your earlier dismissal of my request got me thinking you were the Vig trying to keep a low profile, so you attacking me now makes me feel like you could just as easily be SK and trying to place the suspicion on me instead. This is exactly why if we have a Vig, he should come forward. Now we have a SK fight breaking out, and we still have another scum to find. Try not to lose focus.

[Toogeloo]

Focus. Right.

Vote: Toogaloo

You ain't town.

I really have no words for this.

If I had to decide scum right now, then LLD is my choice for last mafia, and Grey is making me think SK trying to pass it off on to me.


Everyone else, thoughts of asking the "Vig" to step forward? If we don't get him, I am inclined to believe SK existence. If we do believe it's SK, then I think we are still better off focusing our efforts on mafia lynch today, since we have more info to go on so it would be easier to find them.

I am going to bold that so everyone sees it...

Everyone else, thoughts of asking the "Vig" to step forward? If we don't get him, I am inclined to believe SK existence. If we do believe it's SK, then I think we are still better off focusing our efforts on mafia lynch today, since we have more info to go on so it would be easier to find them.

I want EVERYONE to answer this please. There are only 7 players, it should not take long.

[Toogeloo]

Everyone else, thoughts of asking the "Vig" to step forward? If we don't get him, I am inclined to believe SK existence.

If we do believe it's SK, then I think we are still better off focusing our efforts on mafia lynch today

, since we have more info to go on so it would be easier to find them.

(Emphasis mine.) Given the bolded, what purpose do you see in asking? Are you just looking for a confirmed townie? Or do you just want more setup information?

Well, if someone does claim the shots, regardless of whether we buy SK or Vig, it is likely not the Mafia. That does narrow down the last mafia spot, and we can worry about the shooter tomorrow. It also puts to rest any back and forths similar to what Grey thinks of me and my reciprocation. There is in all likelihood only one mafia left. The Vig has nothing to fear about coming forward if he exists.

Now if we are dealing with an SK, the reason I don't believe now is a good time to hunt for him is because we don't want to risk lynching a town in the process of SK hunting. Doing so puts us in a potential 2v1v1 tomorrow and more or less puts the power in the anti-town factions hands, because we can't lynch either of them without damning ourselves. Since we have a greater likelihood of lynching the last mafia based on the flips and information present in the thread, it's better to continue hunting the mafia and try to deal with the SK tomorrow if we can.

[Toogeloo]

CooLDoG for SK maybe?

I dunno... where is everyone? Not like we don't have a very limited amount of time here or anything >_>.

[Toogeloo]

My concern is whether or not Scum would post something like this:

Some of tl's recent posts are bad. Pending vote, except we have a fag-ass homo that we have to lynch first:

Don't get me wrong, CooLDoG is an awful player, but something about it just doesn't seem like the right lynch to me.


Again, this town has gone DEAD QUIET, and it's quite unsettling on what could be a very important day of the game.

[Toogeloo]

Toog, don't you find it weird that CoolDog leaves NOW?

I mean, he sees you applying pressure to me and GI, and decides to let you handle things and initiate operation lurk2victory?

I do find it odd, yes. Hence the reason I made the comment right after he posted. I just don't like that it's quiet.


TheLonging, why are you trying to generate discussion when there are already things on the table to talk about? Do you think SK or Vig? Do you think a Vig should step forward if he exists? What are your thoughts on LLD's VCA? Your impressions of GreyICE (no mention of him so far)? Do you really believe someone who has openly defended several players as town is strategic SK play?

[Toogeloo]

CooLDoG is a mislynch. The guy just has no skills as scum, he'd spend the entire time nervous as hell, or realize he was about to, and swing to cocky, which would be just as noticeable. Meanwhile Toog just floats along on an ISO of fluff.

Toog = experienced scum
CD = inexperienced town

Hey... do me a favor and click my wiki and tell me I am experienced scum . You really haven't been playing to your standard this game Grey. You are usually far more analytical and stuff. Where's the player that was in Multiple Personalities with me? I've hardly been fluffing this game. I've town hunted more than I have scum hunted maybe, but that works for me.

[Toogeloo]

Not a fan of the setup.

Plurality lynches with scum having over 1/3rd of the player base, and a limited amount of time to make decisions really favors scum in this setup, even if they lose a member every night, a commanding scum team, such as the one we had, can more or or less direct traffic every day and force mislynches. I have to admit, I had an eyebrow raised after the third Mafia death, but by that point it no longer mattered, scum had more or less concreted dominance in the game, and I don't believe anyone on town would have thought for a moment that 6 scum existed in the setup.

So yeah, the mechanics, while sound in the amount of lynches required to win one way or another, still doesn't help in a numbers game where Scum control a Majority of a Majority at the very beginning. By the time Town gets enough information on the setup, most of their playerbase will include sluffers or VIs, and would likely lose anyways.


My guess is you could play this game a dozen times, not sharing the setup with each group of players, and get the same result in almost all (if not all) play throughs.

[Toogeloo]

Also I do feel kinda bad about attacking you on and off for the game, but I couldn't pick on CD or TL and King was bulletproof after Hiraki flip.

Meh, I'm not the most aggressive player in mafia, I prefer analytical approach over pressure. I deserve a lot of the flak I get, though I wish people would really learn that that's just how I play .