Lady Lambdadelta wrote:After an extensive VCA that you will see below, I have found a place I am happy to put my vote.
VOTE: CoolDog
HoS: Tclawren
FoS: TheLonging
One of these three is your last scum (assuming a 4 person scum team), and likely-hood of each one being scum descends as you go down the list.
Ok... keeping an open mind.
If you look at the original King1216 wagon that got 7 votes, this is who you see on it.
Remember, King is obv town.
[7] KingTwelveSixteen -
Hiraki
,
Empking
, CooLDoG,
Slaxx
,
Furcolow
,
Exe
,
bobsnox
Only 2 scum on a 7 person wagon? I mean, sure, it's possible that the other two scum were both off doing something else... but why wouldn't they try and take the opportunity for an easy Day 1 lynch?
WIFOM
I'm going to ignore the Bobsnox lynch, because it is my opinion that the scum slip I found was legit, and by all right he should have flipped scum.
He just didn't
Wouldn't his mislynch also have scum on it... considering your previous reasoning that scum would try and take the opportunity for an easy Day 1 lynch?
Next wagons to look at are Day 2 Dueling wagons of Furc and King1216.
[6] KingTwelveSixteen -
Furcolow
, tclawren,
Hiraki
, CooLDoG,
populartajo
,
Slaxx
[4] Furcolow - TheLonging, Lady Lambdadelta, GreyICE, KingTwelveSixteen
No one has flipped who was on the Furc wagon at that point... but the real interesting thing is the two people left alive who were on the King1216 wagon.
CoolDoG and Tclawren.
I have my doubts about TC... but this is the second time CoolDog has been on a town wagon (Yes, I know King hasn't flipped town or anything, but if King isn't town I'll eat my hat.)
And this time, there is only one other scum on the wagon with him. Assuming a 4 person scum team (with Exe dead making it 3), you would expect a potential mislynch wagon like that to have at least one more scum on it.
WIFOM... again. You also have to consider that Furcolow and King were competing mislynch wagons, and there were only 3 scum, so both mislynch wagons can't have more than one scum on them, and that's even operating under the assumption all 3 scum were trying to get on either King or Furc. Why would all the scum be on King only? I think looking at those votals, there is probably a scum on Furc as well since he is also town, and a mislynch on King or Furc is all that matters.
Here's the lynch that day:
[7] Furcolow - TheLonging, Lady Lambdadelta,
Pine
,
populartajo
,
KingTwelveSixteen
, tclawren,
Slaxx
There are no flipped scum on this wagon yet.
Is it possible that town lynched Furcolow of its own accord? Yes, but not likely. There is a plausible case to be made that all the scums were on the King wagon, but I'd rather believe that Tclawren (who was on the King wagon too) jumped over to the Furc wagon to get the mislynch.
Agreed that scum was probably on this wagon, see my point above. But who are you trying to argue as scum... CooLDoG (not on this lynch) or tclawren? Or are you just trying to set up both of them....?
Day 3:
There were only 2 vote counts in Day 3
[4] populartajo - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, TheLonging,
Hiraki
[2] TheLonging -
Pine
,
populartajo
[1] KingTwelveSixteen - tclawren
[1] Lady Lambdadelta - CooLDoG
Here is an interesting development. Tclawren is back on King and CoolDog is voting me. There wouldn't be much of a problem with CoolDog voting me, because he has expressed suspicion of me all game (wrong but consistent).
The real kicker about CoolDog is the next vote count.
Since scum is down to two members, they need to work together for the mislynches I imagine. Since pop was the only focus of yesterday, I will bet they were both on him at the end of the day. Again though, you are trying to build a case on CooLDoG, but you sully tclawren at the same time, like you are trying set up two separate cases for when one flips town.
[6] populartajo - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, TheLonging,
Hiraki
, CooLDoG,
populartajo
[1] TheLonging -
Pine
[1] KingTwelveSixteen - tclawren
He switches his vote over to the Tajo wagon, which prompts Tajo to self-hammer as town.
Again, only one scum is on that lynch wagon that is revealed. Remember, this is Day 3, so both Regfan and Exe are dead and we are assuming 2 scums left.
It would make sense that both scum would be on this wagon... or that the scum team is Hiraki and TC.
I agree... it does make sense for both scum to be on this wagon (see my above point). Again... you bring tclawren back into it again.
About TheLonging: I want you to examine the wagons above. Pine is the sole voter for TheLonging. With Tajo's case on TL and his dying breath being "Lynch TL", it would make sense for a TL/Hiraki scum team to kill the only person in the game who was voting for one of them. Thus, it eliminates someone who would potentially believe Tajo's "case" and follow up on it today.
That's your VCA. Potential scums: CoolDog, Tclawren, TheLonging
My overall thoughts... I think you were spot on with analysis... there are certain truths about it. But I think you got your names wrong.
Honestly, CooLDoG's violation of Rule 1 comes off in a town spoken manner, I don't think he is mafia. I also am getting cold feet on TheLonging due to the huge amount of interaction from Hikari revolving around TLs posts. I haven't had any beef with tclaw, but I haven't analyzed him either, but something about the votals has made him stick out a bit in the sense that he is doing his own thing.
If you can't tell where I am going with this... I could just as easily plug your name into your analysis and get the same result. A good con contains elements of truth, right LLD?
I don't use these very often, but...
FoS: LLD
@GreyIce: At 7, with 1 scum left, but two night kills a night, we could very easily be at 4 players tomorrow with a town mislynch and two town killed tonight. Extremely scary if the setup includes a SK, hence the reason I was asking about the Vig stepping forward.
