Mini 1137: Long Overdue Mafia [Game Over!]

[havingfitz]

Current gametime BST: Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:23 am
neil's last visited BST: Mon Apr 11, 2011 9:18 am

C'mon neil...nothing to say? Look forward to your response to post 671 and thoughts on Pine.

[tarsonisocelot]

Ok, I've been thinking about doing this for a while and I think it's a good decision because right now the alternative seems to be just lynching Pine then starting on tomorrow after someone else is nightkilled. I think that giving town a real incentive to use the full length of the day to discuss should give us more of a chance to draw out scum responses and that this will do that.

I am a One-shot vigilante. I am willing to shoot whoever the town thinks is the most scummy besides Pine by a democratic choice in night 2.
If you want me to count you as voting for someone to be shot tonight, put NightVote:playername in the last line of any post in normal text (unvotes likewise).
The decision will be made if any player has a)more than 50% of the votes, or b) significantly more votes than their nearest contender.

Given a Pine lynch seems pretty much a sure thing following his voided hammer and subsequent abandonment of the thread, this should give us a reason to extend the day as long as possible.

[Pine]

Writing a post.

[havingfitz]

Not sure that was the best move to make TO since we don't know what abilities scum have. Now you could be RB'd and NK'd or possibly JK'd if the "NightVote" frontrunner is scum. If the "NightVote" frontrunner is not scum...then scum let you kill and they are either happy to let you live another day or take you out the following night as confirmed town. Haven't played too many games with Vig's but I would assume if you are in fact a vig...that scum have some PRs as well.

It might be better if we make our cases for our top non-Pine suspect and you decide to Vig on your own without telling us. If someone does come in and hammer Pine you should definitely use your shot tonight...if you are able to. I doubt you'll get another chance.

Also...I don't see Scum making a bold move like this when they have not suffered any losses and when TO isn't really getting that much attention.

If I'm to believe TO's claim and therefore tat she is town...that makes Void's lynch a bit more interesting to mull over. With seven on Void's mislynch I would be very surprised if there weren't at least two scum on his wagon. So IMO, if we remove Jahudo and TO from the mix...that two of Pine, chkflip, PT, Bub, and Nacho are scum. This sucks FMPOV because two of my top three suspects are not on the Void lynch...Cecily and neil. Of those two I am inclined to pass on neil and maintain my suspicions of Cecily. On the five let on the Void wagon...Pine is looking to be the concensus scum suspect which leaves one more. One of chkflip, PT, bub, and Nacho. I've had a town feel from Bub so for me...I would be looking at one of the chkflip, PT or Nacho group. I'm inclined to think chkflip is town because I seriously doubt andrew replaces out of a game where he is scum. So from my disjointed process of elimination that leaves me with PT and Nacho. Slight scum edge to Nacho but I would need to look them both over more closely.

tl:dr;

Not sure you should have claimed TO but my top suspects after Pine are Cecily annnnnnd based off POE and VCA a distant 2nd and 3rd of Nacho........................&...PT.

[Pine]

I've stayed silent long enough. Yes, I've been quite active on the site and silent here. To be perfectly honest, I've put this off. Why? Because Setael's case is incredibly thorough, well-researched, and seemingly air-tight. For quite some time, I was thinking to not even bother, and just post my reads and let my flip clear both me and those reads. But like I said, I find that kind of attitude very anti-Town, bordering on playing against wincon. While doing an archive binge of one of my favorite webcomics, I came across the above strip, specifically the last panel.

I know, it's not exactly applicable. But with a little adjustment, it can easily be applied to Mafia. "Scum don't have scumhunting cases. They have cleverly consistent fictions." The only way I feel someone could have arrive at such a seamless conclusion is with their objective pre-determined prior to making the case. A clever manipulator can twist almost any set of facts, especially a set that includes such a

glaring

error as my ill-advised hammer, into whatever kind of case they want. And to put it plainly, Setael's mind was made up far, far before he ever got to my first post.

If you look at his wall case against me, it is largely and strongly based in Xalxe's play, which I have already decried as amateurish and misleading. I've been worried since the start that someone would do a serious analysis of Xalxe's play and arrive at the conclusion I arrived at. When I replaced in, I decided to read the thread before looking at my role PM. I was fairly convinced at that time that Xalxe had pulled scum and that pappum's rat was our partner. I was

shocked

when I found

Town Tracker

in my role PM.

I maintain that, while Setael may or may not be scum himself (and I'm trying not to be biased about him here), his entire (legitimate) case is based on Xalxe's truly bad play and my hammer of Voided. The rest of the case comes from that conclusion, after which all of my posts were irrelevant except as fodder for advancing his case.

Next post in a series of three: Why I hammered, and the case for Voided as Town that I never finished. The third will be answering the remaining questions and a final statement.

[Cecily]

Alright, I'm not thoroughly convinced. I admit, Pine I do like your claim and there really is no way for someone to argue a tracker claim, but the truth of the situation is that somebody is lying. I'd be more inclined to believe such a claim if it were a more influential PR (such as doctor, cop, etc) and no one called you out for having the same role. I've been in a game where there were legitimately two trackers and while it confused us all, neither of them were lying and there was legitimately no way for anyone to argue it. With or without your claim, I believe setael's reads on you because they were so thorough and I honestly can't find a place to argue with them.

Whether or not it is fair, you came in after xalxe who did make a lot of mistakes and I'm still willing to vote for you because of those. But instead of hammering I'm all for allowing some time for you to make some final posts. You're welcome.

As for TO... Bold move, and bad move. If there are two NK's tonight, then we can be sure TO wasn't lying. But, in the case of a lazier/smarter scum team, they could easily not send in their PM as long as they're confident that who ever TO is lynching is town, and thus making it seem like TO is scum. I don't think TO claiming was a good idea, especially given the tendency for this group to label their next day targets so openly.

And fitz, if Pine is scum, he made some indication of there only being two scum in this game as setael pointed out, so how would that affect what you believe is the team?

[havingfitz]

I couldn't even tell you what Setael's case on you was. My suspicions of you came from you and your actions....not anything that anyone else has put forward. And the first two paragraphs above + comic do nothing for your position. A waste of your time putting it tgether and our/my time reading it. And while I am interested in your Tracker claim (because if TO is telling the truth I could envision there being a Tracker) I'm not sure there is any way to confirm it unless there is a counter-claim. Who did you track last night and what was the result?

-Pre-edit. Why do you think someone is lying Cecily? Why couldn't everyone be telling the truth? I'm not about to assume there are two scum because that would be very dangerous IMO. I would be surprised if there were less than three so I'll stay with that assumption.

[Setael]

It doesn't get much worse than a defense that is basically 'The case on me is so solid that all I can do is try to cast suspicion on the person who posted it.' It is ridiculous to say that my entire case is based on xalxe when a lot of what I posted was specifically about Pine.

If Pine is a tracker, he's a scum tracker. More likely he's just lying, since if he were really a tracker, he would've posted his N1 results when he claimed.

@ Pine - Questions I'd love answered:

1. What about PT/xalxe's interactions made you think they were scum buddies?

2. What makes you think the scum team is just 2 people?

3. What makes you think I would choose you if I were scum deciding who to make a case on before I ever read a single post, as you've accused me of? If you supposedly found xalxe so scummy when you read the thread, wouldn't that lead you to think others who found xalxe scummy were also townies seeing the same thing you did?

I'm about 99% sure the truthful answer to all of this is "I'm scum so everything I say is a lie" except the 2-man scum team which I think you let slip accidentally, but I'd still like to hear your answers.

[Cecily]

Someone is lying because someone (or a few people) are always lying in this game. It seems very unlikely that both people who were attacked by seteal's post come out to be town oriented PRs and since I'm more willing to believe TO's claim because it can be proven via night actions I'm going to assume that Pine is lying about his role.

Re-reading his post it also seems a bit too wordy to be believable. It's like when you'd lie to your parents about where you were. If you went into great detail about who you were with and where you went and what you ate and how it tasted, it was much less believable than if you stuck with only a few details. And reading through the rest of Pine's posts he's not wordy. He states what he needs to state and lets that be. His last claim post is uncharacteristic and unbelievable. A Pine lynch is still totally fine with me.

[tarsonisocelot]

Not sure that was the best move to make TO since we don't know what abilities scum have. Now you could be RB'd and NK'd or possibly JK'd if the "NightVote" frontrunner is scum. If the "NightVote" frontrunner is not scum...then scum let you kill and they are either happy to let you live another day or take you out the following night as confirmed town. Haven't played too many games with Vig's but I would assume if you are in fact a vig...that scum have some PRs as well.

It might be better if we make our cases for our top non-Pine suspect and you decide to Vig on your own without telling us. If someone does come in and hammer Pine you should definitely use your shot tonight...if you are able to. I doubt you'll get another chance.

Also...I don't see Scum making a bold move like this when they have not suffered any losses and when TO isn't really getting that much attention.

If I'm to believe TO's claim and therefore tat she is town...that makes Void's lynch a bit more interesting to mull over. With seven on Void's mislynch I would be very surprised if there weren't at least two scum on his wagon. So IMO, if we remove Jahudo and TO from the mix...that two of Pine, chkflip, PT, Bub, and Nacho are scum. This sucks FMPOV because two of my top three suspects are not on the Void lynch...Cecily and neil. Of those two I am inclined to pass on neil and maintain my suspicions of Cecily. On the five let on the Void wagon...Pine is looking to be the concensus scum suspect which leaves one more. One of chkflip, PT, bub, and Nacho. I've had a town feel from Bub so for me...I would be looking at one of the chkflip, PT or Nacho group. I'm inclined to think chkflip is town because I seriously doubt andrew replaces out of a game where he is scum. So from my disjointed process of elimination that leaves me with PT and Nacho. Slight scum edge to Nacho but I would need to look them both over more closely.

tl:dr;

Not sure you should have claimed TO but my top suspects after Pine are Cecily annnnnnd based off POE and VCA a distant 2nd and 3rd of Nacho........................&...PT.

I'm not sure it was the right move either, but as I'm only one-shot I'll be a VT as soon as I've fired. Your idea about me picking from cases makes sense.
I've never played in a game with a roleblocker before (and I'm hoping that this isn't my first), and the only one I've played in with a vig was a bastard mod (as we found out on Day 2 following 8 night kills/23 players).

The main purpose is to keep discussion alive even though we already have Pine as pretty much confirmed scum.

I like the reasoning about the voided lynch. I'll be reading through P.T. and checking the pre-gambit rat/nacho posts out tomorrow.

[neil1113]

I've been here, but I the past few days, I haven't really had a lot of time to put into this game and the game I'm currently running. But with the little bit I have, I want you to know I have been following. TO's claim was out of the blue, and slightly random but I can see why she did it.

UNVOTE: TO

Pine was indeed suspicious, but it has since the beginning, and still is sounding like a townie that may have messed up and is now getting called out on it. Pine's defense did nothing to sway my opinion, but rather furthered it. I'm not sure exactly where to go from here, and I think I have a lot to be rereading on now. I apologize for my lack of activity.

[chkflip]

UNVOTE: P.T.
VOTE: Satael

Way too interested in rushing the current wagon, amongst other scummy things they've done.

[Setael]

UNVOTE: P.T.
VOTE: Satael

Way too interested in rushing the current wagon, amongst other scummy things they've done.

Interesting. Mind clarifying what I've done that is "rushing the current wagon"?

[Pine]

For starters, seeing the start of a possibly-strong comeback and challenge to the railroad of a case you've presented, and immediately following up with a post of your own that all but comes right out and says "Don't listen to anything Pine has to say, lynch him today! Quick! Before he can debunk my bullshit!"

Working on the second post in a series of three over dinner. Expect it in an hour or so.

[Setael]

First, I was talking to chkflip. Why do you feel it necessary to answer for him?

Second, how is my case bullshit now when earlier you said it was so solid you felt you needed to hide rather than respond?

[Setael]

Also, I would still like it clarified how my post (where I asked Pine to answer some questions, which seems to me like the opposite of rushing a lynch) could at all be seen as "don't listen to pine! Hurry and lynch him!" This time I'd like chkflip to answer first though.

[Cecily]

I'm going to be honest and say it seems way more like everyone else is interested in rushing the wagon given how many votes on Pine occurred within a few hours of each other and I don't see how setael making any untrusting comments on pine seems like trying to rush...

[Bub Bidderskins]

Hmmm, Pine's post seems wordy and desperate. He knows he's in a corner and is trying to find a way out of it with a cleverly disguised OMGUS.

Pine, who did you track last night?

[Pine]

Hmmm, Pine's post seems wordy and desperate. He knows he's in a corner and is trying to find a way out of it with a cleverly disguised OMGUS.

Pine, who did you track last night?

I ended up going out after dinner, second post is only half complete. I read Mastin's MD article on cops (and by extension, cop-like roles like Trackers) as soon as I read my role PM. I'd heard of it, but never read it before. It suggests staying away from people likely to be lynched and people you've got strong reads on. I followed mikemike and got nothing.

[P.T. Barnum]

He claimed tracker without claiming his result? lynch 'em

[P.T. Barnum]

the meta on this site has essentially established the tracker as a safe mafia claim (which of course makes it a terrible mafia claim), since it has weaker results than those of a cop and it can exist with other information roles. It's a lot like claiming Nurse.

[Pine]

Result is directly above your post. It was intended to be part of Post 3.

[P.T. Barnum]

why mikemike?

[tarsonisocelot]

Hmmm, Pine's post seems wordy and desperate. He knows he's in a corner and is trying to find a way out of it with a cleverly disguised OMGUS.

Pine, who did you track last night?

I ended up going out after dinner, second post is only half complete. I read Mastin's MD article on cops (and by extension, cop-like roles like Trackers) as soon as I read my role PM. I'd heard of it, but never read it before. It suggests staying away from people likely to be lynched and people you've got strong reads on. I followed mikemike and got nothing.

Why wouldn't you follow someone you believe strongly to be scum? If it's all in the article, summarize the relevant parts and link please.

Also, could you please post the rest of your defense soon, preferably along with what would have been your voided defense argument.

[tarsonisocelot]

Setael: Could you comment on Idiotking's play?