A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Eddard Stark]

Magua (1) - Danakillsu

Zdenek (3) - Magua, popsofctown, hasdgfas

Locke Lamora (1) Zdenek

Not voting (5) Twilight Sparkle, LynchMePls, Benmage, Locke Lamora, Shadow1psc

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Deadline here

[popsofctown]

VOTECOUNT GOES HERE WHEEEEEEEEEEEE TOP OF THE PAGE.

A giant among man, our Eddard Stark.

[popsofctown]

ebwop, men

[Magua]

Stuff: No clue on what the "modified" means. With Zdenek's earlier claim, I had assumed that modified meant that his role was not originally Bulletproof, but was modified by what happened in game (chesskid dying). That depended on Zdenek's claim being true, which I now doubt.

For Kast getting shot, I think that that's because of Setael. This is theory, as the mod won't tell me how rolecop would interact with Godfather, but the mod confirmed that if you were to rolecop an Ascetic, the action would fail. Not "return no role name", but "fail", as if he was roleblocked. So I do think Setael would fear being rolecopped.

Magua, how many Lannister VTs do you think there would be, based on the assumption that the Starks don't have any goons?

I would expect six VTs. Which, of course, I'm not seeing: Chesskid3, Raivann, Thor665 are confirmed, and Locke Lamora, Danakillsu, and Twilight Sparkle all claim VT, but unless the two remaining scum are LynchMePls and Zdenek, which I doubt, one of you has to be lying.

Are we just ignoring [danakillsu voting Bunnylover]? This is monumentally bad no matter how you look at it really. The most you could downplay this is WIFOM. Coupled with the fact though that his next post doesn't really acknowledge the faux pas with so much as a 'whoops', this really doesn't strike me as genuine as TS got from it.

It's null, IMO. Look at it this way: what's the scum motivation to do it? If he's town, it's a careless mistake. If he's scum, it's him acting like it's a careless mistake. In no way do I consider it a slip, though, because scum would be very sure to have a good case on someone they were actually going to try to push.

Having said that, I'm still not convinced on LMP. I think there is way too much town killing power. This is one of those things, where in a worst case scenario, Stark could have lost like n2. We have a 3-way confirmable group and a 4th confirmable friendly Lannister. Plus the normal set of town power, this is a really heavy game. Granted, I don't know if this is par for the course in the 'series' at this point, no one else seems to be making a fuss over the insane amount of killing power town had, but dayum.

Clash of Kings: 2 scumteams (2 kills per night), Serial Killer (1 kill per night), 1-shot dayvig, 1-shot vengeful kill, 3-shot nightkill granter.

Storm of Swords (assuming hasdgfas, I, and LMP are all town): 1 scumteam (1 kill per night), Serial Killer (1 kill per night), 1-shot dayvig, 1-shot vig, 1-shot CPR doc.

So, no, seems about par for the course (CoK had 26 players, ASoS has 24)

I wish people would go for Magua, which will get us some info, rather than the easy lynch target Zdenek. Seriously, he always looks scummy.

What info do you gain when I flip town?

[Shadow1psc]

Like I said, it's WIFOM. Is it intentional? Maybe. Maybe not. I'm just saying it didn't look as genuine as TS originally pointed out (to me). I'm not sure who this speaks more about, either.

[Locke Lamora]

Was there another night that he was roleblocked and only one kill happened? Or just the one?

Just the one. Is there a point to this?

Magua: so you think Dana and TS are really VTs and I'm the lying one?

[Magua]

Magua: so you think Dana and TS are really VTs and I'm the lying one?

Yes.

[Locke Lamora]

So I had a look back at ACoK to check the setup. There were 7 VTs there, with 2 PRs and two goons per scumteam. The split there was 17-4-4-1. Here you are suggesting it's 5 VTs and 5 scum, all with PRs, and I'm assuming you think Zdenek is the 5th and final Stark with some kind of kill immunity, so I guess your assumption is 17-5-1-1. As you said, 26 players in ACoK, 24 players here. What makes you think that a 2 VT drop on town's side would indicate a drop to 0 goons for scum in a team of only 5 players?

[Magua]

So I had a look back at ACoK to check the setup. There were 7 VTs there, with 2 PRs and two goons per scumteam. The split there was 17-4-4-1. Here you are suggesting it's 5 VTs and 5 scum, all with PRs, and I'm assuming you think Zdenek is the 5th and final Stark with some kind of kill immunity, so I guess your assumption is 17-5-1-1. As you said, 26 players in ACoK, 24 players here. What makes you think that a 2 VT drop on town's side would indicate a drop to 0 goons for scum in a team of only 5 players?

Because the setup is obviously that the mafia (Stark) are really the town, and have the town-like PR roles.

But, here's the real question. Why do you care that I don't think there are any mafia goons? This is a repeated attribute of your play in this game: you pop up again and again to say some variant of "You can't trust X."

You say Zdenek could be the SK because Nexus could have roleblocked someone else.
You say Dana could be a mafia goon.
You manage to sound miffed that the Kettleblacks were being cleared.
You say drill into Nexus that Raivann's claim may be fake.

All of these things are true, but they're the majority of what you've said. It's like you're going out of your way to make sure that suspicion can be cast on anyone.

[danakillsu]

@ Magua
If you flip town, we can be much surer that Locke is a good lynch candidate. If you flip scum, we've likely pretty much won the game.

[Magua]

@ Magua
If you flip town, we can be much surer that Locke is a good lynch candidate. If you flip scum, we've likely pretty much won the game.

...

...

...

[Locke Lamora]

I asking because I'm wondering about a connection. Your rationale for clearing Dana is partly based on there not being any scum goons. This seems like a strange attitude to take, based on what we know about this setup and the previous setup. This partially concerns me because I think it's always dangerous to make an assumption that there are the lowest possible amount of scum - numbers are always more crucial than PRs, at the end of the day - and partially because I think that you're looking for an extra reason to call Dana town, which seems unnecessary. On the other side of the coin, there's something about Dana's 'let's lynch Magua' that seems very fake. It's based on very little for a vote this late in the game; it looks like he's trying to make a point that he's voting you, who's not as easy a lynch as Zdenek. Now, both of you are relatively close to the bottom of the lynch list that a lot of players are operating off. My hunch is that you're doing your best to make sure that there's enough to confuse the connections between you that if one of you is lynched, the other is not immediately connected as a buddy. That's why I was trying to find out why you thought there were only 5 scum and none of them VTs.

As for your complaint that I am trying to cast suspicion on anyone I can, you're basically complaining that I'm exercising independent thought in the face of massive consensus and very little real scumhunting. I've found this game frustrating and I think I've been very honest about that. I've had less time than I'd like and the cases I have pushed hard have either been ignored or shot down by people with very little reasoning. For example, my Shadow case was pretty much ignored (even Shadow only responded once and then ignored the majority of my points). The 'hypocop' stuff didn't help; I'm really not a fan of people saying 'x is town because of SECRET ROLE INFO' and then sitting on it for days. Then we got to the list stage and I've already made my views clear on that. Why do you think this aspect of my play is indicative of an SK?

[Shadow1psc]

I can actually relate to that Locke, the problem is there's confirmed towns running around who are going to take a very methodical direction to pegging the final scum. Logically, we had it narrowed down to very few choices and I wasn't one of them, nor even close. I'm not anywhere near confirmed, but I'm a little farther up on the scale ahead of people like Setael, suspected SKs, and people with nothing to show for actions so far, in what looks like a power heavy game.

[LimMePls]

So I had a look back at ACoK to check the setup. There were 7 VTs there, with 2 PRs and two goons per scumteam. The split there was 17-4-4-1. Here you are suggesting it's 5 VTs and 5 scum, all with PRs, and I'm assuming you think Zdenek is the 5th and final Stark with some kind of kill immunity, so I guess your assumption is 17-5-1-1. As you said, 26 players in ACoK, 24 players here. What makes you think that a 2 VT drop on town's side would indicate a drop to 0 goons for scum in a team of only 5 players?

Because the setup is obviously that the mafia (Stark) are really the town, and have the town-like PR roles.

But, here's the real question. Why do you care that I don't think there are any mafia goons? This is a repeated attribute of your play in this game: you pop up again and again to say some variant of "You can't trust X."

You say Zdenek could be the SK because Nexus could have roleblocked someone else.
You say Dana could be a mafia goon.
You manage to sound miffed that the Kettleblacks were being cleared.
You say drill into Nexus that Raivann's claim may be fake.

All of these things are true, but they're the majority of what you've said. It's like you're going out of your way to make sure that suspicion can be cast on anyone.

This, except for the "no goons" assumption.

Also, the Dana-votes-dead-BL stuff is null. That said, the rest of his play is pretty scumtastic, as I've repeated over, and over, and over ad nauseum. I think of the VTs, he is the most likely Stark.

@ Magua
If you flip town, we can be much surer that Locke is a good lynch candidate. If you flip scum, we've likely pretty much won the game.

Yup, I think Dana is stark and thinks Magua is SK, and wants him gone now. This "reasoning" for why we should lynch Magua is TERRIBLE. Since Dana isn't a dummy, it makes me pretty sure he has other reasons for wanting Magua lynched.

I asking because I'm wondering about a connection. Your rationale for clearing Dana is partly based on there not being any scum goons. This seems like a strange attitude to take, based on what we know about this setup and the previous setup. This partially concerns me because I think it's always dangerous to make an assumption that there are the lowest possible amount of scum - numbers are always more crucial than PRs, at the end of the day - and partially because I think that you're looking for an extra reason to call Dana town, which seems unnecessary. On the other side of the coin, there's something about Dana's 'let's lynch Magua' that seems very fake.

EXACTLY. I don't see why the Starks couldn't be "all power except 1 goon", in fact it makes the rolecop more interesting/skill-challenging (ie. "Vanilla result != town && PR result != scum"). And Dana-Stark makes all kinds of sense to me. Him turning up vanilla from Kast is nowhere NEAR enough to take him off the table.

If there is 1 more Stark it's between Dana and Zdenek.

Vote: Zdenek

[Zdenek]

As for the N4 kill, can anyone tell me why they think Nexus blocked Zdenek instead of the super obv-scum (and probably immune to night actions) Setael?

I think Nexus would have blocked me again, since he had a good reason to suspect that it would work again, since it had apparently worked the night before, and it makes sense for him to keep doing what was expected of him to reduce the confusion now.

[popsofctown]

Speaking of Setael..


Do you think it's a towntell or scumtell for Magua that he was selected as champion, and then railed upon?

I'm thinking about the options Setael had. Picking Thor was worthless, she'd just die. So she could pick a confirmed town, unconfirmed town, or her scum partner.
No matter who she picked, she wouldn't be able to get that person killed, Benmage would pick Thor and then Thor would be the only one to die.

Her pleas the next day had more chance of success. There's no locked thread, she could influence us into deviating from Benmage's plan.

If she picks an unconfirmed town, she at most could get that unconfirmed townie lynched, then she dies for being wrong. If she picks scum, she gets a lot of town cred, and can ascetic-tank her way through the rest of the game. At worst, she dies adistanced from that partner.

But the whole thing risk killing Magua, who has had better play all game. So then it doesn't seem like she'd do that. Usually you let the guy doing well go win. It's simpler.

But then again, did she ever really have a chance to convince people she was innocent? She seemed to think so. Perhaps she was acting like she did, so we would think Magua is town. I have no conclusion on this.
This post sucks.

[Shadow1psc]

Unfortunately, it's entirely WIFOM, like if Setael had made a list of scum and town reads before dying.

[danakillsu]

LMP is sort of correct. I was looking for a reaction from Magua, which I practically already told you guys, and which I definitely got. It wasn't a good one, to say the least. Magua, you certainly aren't trying very hard to show me you're not the wagon for today, you would rather make me look like an idiot (which I can do all by myself, thank you very much). MY VOTE STAYS.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Zdenek, can you tell us if you're Mafia or the SK, please? And who your buddy is, on the "off chance" that you have one?

Because you really, really suck at scum. No, seriously. You are godawful at this. I hate myself for having switched to Feysal on D2 right now.

Actually, thank you so much for that. "Off chance." It was really sweet of you.

VOTE: ZdenekI've been doing a lot of rereading and discussing behind the scenes over the past few days, but I haven't got a chance to put a big post together.

However, I did a scenario. I'd

It really doesn't matter if there are one or two Mafia remaining...

as long as we take out the other scum tomorrow

.

And not only is the fifth scum is certainly Zdenek, but the sixth one (if there is one) is LynchMePls. (Disclaimer: LMP is last on my list of ISOs.) In fact, I'd almost be willing to call Zdenek and LMP as the Starks, and Locke as the SK based on tha.

Locke? LMP? Both of you seem to be arguing that danakillsu is Stark--the former as Magua's buddy (do you think Magua was bussing diddin and Setael, out of curiosity?), the latter as Zdenek's. But do you think that dana's interactions with Setael

Also, LMP, why are you voting Zdenek if
(After Magua's recent posts, I'm pretty convinced that he's not Stark. That said, I

An open letter to the Serial Killer:

Dear psychopathic bastard,

We greatly appreciate your help in taking out. Then you decided to be. Bastard. So much for letting you win in endgame.

Now let's take a look at things.

We lynch Zdenek and he flips town.

1)

Conclusion: if Zdenek flips town, you should be aiming for scum

Spoiler: Spoilers for this post

Twilight Sparkle is probably not Stark, and also probably right about Zdenek. God, I feel so dirty.

[Twilight Sparkle]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Um...um...

I'm still getting used to my new laptop, and...I...accidentally hit submit...when the post was like 15% done...and Faraday refuses to delete that....

Oh, dear God. That was embarrassing.

Can no one actually read the post above this one? (I can keep the Zdenek vote, but everything else is total gibberish.) I was going to flesh out all those points, but I was kind of writing out of order, and....

Eek. Um, hang on. I'm going to post a more coherent version of that later.

-too embarrassed to admit which pony this is.

[Eddard Stark]

Magua (1) - Danakillsu

Zdenek (5) - Magua, popsofctown, hasdgfas, LynchMePls, Twilight Sparkle

Locke Lamora (1) Zdenek

Not voting (3) Benmage, Locke Lamora, Shadow1psc

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Don't drink and post. You may embarass yourself.
*Deadline here

[Eddard Stark]

oh fuck I thought that was top of the page. ugh.

Hascow and Benmage will be prodded.

pretend this was seacore.

[danakillsu]

Everything in the last 4 posts (including, and maybe ESPECIALLY the votecount) is pure fail. (That is not to say the votecount is inaccurate)

[Twilight Sparkle]

*Don't drink and post. You may embarass yourself.

That's it. Consider me /out for My Little Pony Mafia.

[hasdgfas]

Unfortunately, it's entirely WIFOM, like if Setael had made a list of scum and town reads before dying.

*nods*

LMP is sort of correct. I was looking for a reaction from Magua, which I practically already told you guys, and which I definitely got. It wasn't a good one, to say the least. Magua, you certainly aren't trying very hard to show me you're not the wagon for today, you would rather make me look like an idiot (which I can do all by myself, thank you very much). MY VOTE STAYS.

*ponders*