Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Maxous]

Nah.
At the end of the day it is an opinion. He could'nt of known anything for sure.

[Twistedspoon]

good answer

but what is your read on saurus, btw

[Maxous]

Mine?

Hmm a bit more than leaning town. Don't know what the correct term to use for that is.

[Oso]

Phht.

Going to go with my head here rather than my gut.

VOTE: Me=Wierd

A scum flip of either ender or Me=Weird would have nailed the alignment of both down enough for me to pretty much remove all doubt.

To explain that I'll refer back to my initial vote post of M=W:Post-261. Specifically, the use of "1-Shot Cop". Had either ender or Me=Wierd showed up as scum, I'd have assumed some sort of prior shenanigans despite what my gut said.

I am modifying my reasons somewhat, though as there can not, obviously, be a connection between ender and M=W and I'm pretty much going to endorse this reasoning with my vote: Klazam's Post-255. I've quoted it before but I'll do the relevant part again.

..
From my POV, it would benefit scum quite a bit if they knew whether Javert was a one shot dayvig or not. I didnt see a valid town reason to ask that question. Now, M=W's explanation involving a doctor seems quite contrived. If there was a doctor, He would know as much as the scum did.
..

To clarify. Yes, I did get what I would consider to be a "town" reaction to my strong vote post of M=W. He didn't try to counter attack me nor did he try to deflect. He calmly answered the reasoning set forth.

I said as much here:

..
As I indicated(sort of) in my last post, I was more interested really in how he defended (his tone) rather than what he said in his defense, if that makes any sense.

He didn't react to my post or my vote of him in the way I would have expected to scum to act. The contradiction is there but he simply explained why it wasn't really a contradiction without getting overly-defensive.

The only real problem I have with it is that he specifically used "1-Shot Cop". That piece of information wasn't available to him when he asked Javert the question.

But I can stretch that, without too much trouble, to being a player thinking a soft-claim is a cop claim and having that thinking confirmed. "1-Shot Cop" replaces "Cop" in his thinking.

The strike through part is the part I'm no longer using. I'm no longer willing to let my giving him the benefit of the doubt stretch quite that far.

As to what I would call the "town" reaction I got from him, that is what my gut is screaming at me. Head says that it is much more indicative of player's ability to react well under pressure than anything alignment based.

[Erratus Apathos]

ender241

,

One-Shot Cop

Forgive me if I start making lots of typos for the rest of the game, but it's awfully hard to type

FROM ATOP MY HIGH HORSE!!!

I don't really care for the MW wagon. I felt his reaction to Juls's attack on him is more likely to come from town than scum.

Klazam's latest post mollifies me slightly. Not nearly enough for a townread though.

On the other hand I took a long hard look at Oso, he is scum. First there's his top three scumlist:

For me;

Me=Weird
ender241
Twistedspoon

in roughly that order. <actual vote still pending though as stated in my last

That list isn't scummy in and of itself, but then when you look at his iso, he goes out of his way to

protect

both Ender and TS,

despite both of them being top suspects

!

Oddly enough, after going back after TS's claim, I feel better about Ender's claim and TS's claim.

TS's "1-Shot Theme" comment makes more sense now. TS knew his role (if you grant that he is true claiming) and saw Ender's claim and made the assumption that all roles are 1-shots, it even makes his comment that he thought Javert had claimed one shot as well more understandable.

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Twistedspoon- I believe his claim

{I'll add my own disclaimer here:FOR NOW}

, play pretty much matches up nicely with the claim.

Juls- Feels town

Oso- Feels town
Rhinox- Feels town

Necessary Evil- Null: hard to read,

more quality posts than me, but less posts in total.

EA- Slightly scummy

because I find his all-out attack of me a bit odd,

can’t put my finger on it.

(Yeah, right now, I would be calling for the vigging of myself, but at the beginning, I was EA’s first choice for vigging, even after I was absent for a couple days)

Prosaurus- Scum because of the way he posted. Yeah, that rolefishing is included.
Me=Weird- At first I thought he was scum, but now I’m not so sure so I’ll say null.

Maxous- Feels town
Farside- Feels town

Javert- I highly doubt that scum would have dayvigging powers. Once he vigs someone, he’s confirmed town IMO.
Ender- I believe the claim for now,

but I recoginize in his shoes, a 1 shot cop would be a pretty good fakeclaim. More likely than TS to be mafia.

Exclude my entry on that list. The bold are ones that I agree with

Triple Post. I want to get this out as a thinking point before I get busy today.

Yesterday I thought about this game quite a bit, and I have an idea I want to throw out.

Javert's shot followed by a no-lynch.

1)Get's us a flip and confirms that Javert has at least the ability to daykill.
2)Avoids outing any other roles. I found (I think) what looks to be a breadcrumb to yet another role (and no, I'm not going to point it out), we keep this up and we are going to have to have a mass-claim here on D1 simply because we seem to be hitting all PRs.
3)It allows our three claimed roles to go ahead and use those roles.
4)Downside, we lose the lynch and information we might get by purposely taking someone to a lynch but I believe that will be offset, in this game at least, by allowing what we have showing to go ahead. Normally, I wouldn't even consider a no-lynch D1. This game is turning out to be fairly unique in my experience.

Oh yeah, that last post is scumcrap all by itself. He makes four bullet points for Dayvig + No Lynch, but the second one is the ONLY one that even tries to offer any advantage over the default Dayvig + Lynch. And even that one is rubbish when you consider the likelyhood of outing a FOURTH power role in a mini normal D1 is so slim that you could stick it on the cover of Cosmo and the anorexia rates in the US would skyrocket. Oso is smart, so I don't think he would post this if he was thinking about the situation rationally.

After thinking about it I actually find Oso scummier than either Klazam or TS, although I'm still willing to lynch either of those two if necessary.

UNVOTE: Klazam
VOTE: Oso

[Oso]

So your basic point there is that I advocated a no-lynch after a vig? Why didn't you bring this up when I made the suggestion if it was so all fired scummy.

The first part, I leave it to the folks in the game to iso me in relation to both Ender's and TS's claim. You will see it basically boils down to leaving the claimed roles alone to give them a chance to give us something but when asked directly about my reads, neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list. The just got put into a wait and see list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

[Erratus Apathos]

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM! COOL STORY SCUM!

VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso
VOTE: Oso

[Erratus Apathos]

oh and this too

neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list.

Twistedspoon- I believe his claim

{I'll add my own disclaimer here:FOR NOW}

, play pretty much matches up nicely with the claim.
(snip)

Ender- I believe the claim for now,

but I recoginize in his shoes, a 1 shot cop would be a pretty good fakeclaim. More likely than TS to be mafia.

OSO IS CAUGHT LYING CONFIRMED SCUM HERE PEOPLE. LET'S GET THIS SHIT ON THE ROAD!

[Prosaurus]

I didnt want to be vigged before i could have some input. Is that so wrong?

And "too experienced": actually, no. I dont have that much experience.

Newbie 1050
Open 288
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Newbie 1065
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Yes, you do. Stop trying to play the newb card, you're too experienced for that.

Post383 K, Understood.

I dislike EA's "They ARE scum, no doubt about it" thing. Besides, didn't you think Klaz was scum?

As for my theory about EA+Ender+Rhinox, I reckon EA and Rhinox could possibly still be scum, who dragged town into their plan. That however, doesn't seem like a likely concept. VOTE: Klazam because of generally bad scumhunting, previous lurking, and playing the newb card when he has plenty of experience.

[Oso]

@ Erratus

Why is it a lie? Or even bad play?

D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

I don't see the problem here.

[Prosaurus]

Oops, forgot to UNVOTE: EA first.

Now

I can VOTE: Klazam

Preveiw Edit: 3 claimed, 1 Confirmed.

[Oso]

If you are going to include Javert, then it would be 3 claimed, 2 confirmed:Ender and Javert.

Erratus is concentrating on my opinions of Ender and TS pre-vig kill. That is what I am answering in that post.

[Erratus Apathos]

Being willing to believe the claims

while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

LOL. YOU BELIEVE THE CLAIMS AND ARE SUSPICIOUS OF THE PLAYERS MAKING THE CLAIMS.

AT THE SAME TIME.

THAT MAKES NEGATIVE INFINITY SENSE.

DIE SCUM DIE!

[Prosaurus]

Being

willing

to believe the claims

while

still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

LOL. YOU BELIEVE THE CLAIMS AND ARE SUSPICIOUS OF THE PLAYERS MAKING THE CLAIMS.

AT THE SAME TIME.

THAT MAKES NEGATIVE INFINITY SENSE.

DIE SCUM DIE!

Please. Your case seems weak, and you're much too eager to lynch someone. First Klaz, now Oso.

[Erratus Apathos]

YOU'RE RIGHT, PROSAURUS. LYING IS A WEAK SCUMTELL AT BEST. ANYTHING ELSE YOU WANT TO TEACH ME ABOUT THIS GAME?

[Twistedspoon]

well I appreciate the case on oso, but i think his play in this game matches up with his town play in our last mini normal.

We'll see though. He's probably clever enough to appear the same despite alignment.

@Suarus: You don't actually need to unvote, btw :/

Preveiw Edit: 3 claimed, 1 Confirmed.

What do you mean by this?
1 confirmed?
do you mean dead ender or Javert? I wouldn't say javert was a confirmed townie. That would be a very dangerous position for d1. Although it's much more likely that he's a town vig, he could always be a one shot scum daykill or summthin.

also 3 claimed? Enders dead, so it's as good as 2 with me and Jav

[Maxous]

and you're much too eager to lynch someone.

That is how we win the game..
Why are you voting Klazam then, if you're not eager to lynch somebody?

well I appreciate the case on oso, but i think his play in this game matches up with his town play in our last mini normal.

In what way?
Was he wihy-washy with his position on who he beleives and who he does'nt?

What strikes me about the quotes Erratus brought up is that Oso kept saying I beleive them

for now

. It should be a matter of beleiving them or not.. this actually comes across as leaving his options open. He's not really giving a position. I'm a bit disappointed I did'nt pick up on that sooner..but that is why the town work together with these things =)
I'll look back on Oso later when I've more time, along with that Ender bandwagon (I know I'm there, but still)

[Twistedspoon]

In what way?
Was he wihy-washy with his position on who he beleives and who he does'nt?

kinda, but it was that sort of game i guess. No definite town reads. My strongest town read flipped traitor etc.

also

V/LA until Saturday/sunday

Noted...

[farside22]

@ Erratus

Why is it a lie? Or even bad play?

D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

I don't see the problem here.

But you said in the quote that you believed TS's claim. If you believe the claim then why is he part of your top 3?

[Oso]

What strikes me about the quotes Erratus brought up is that Oso kept saying I beleive them

for now

. It should be a matter of beleiving them or not.. this actually comes across as leaving his options open. He's not really giving a position. I'm a bit disappointed I did'nt pick up on that sooner..but that is why the town work together with these things =)
I'll look back on Oso later when I've more time, along with that Ender bandwagon (I know I'm there, but still)

Uh, no. I'll re-quote something I said earlier:

..
D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.
..

That is pay-off vs risk. That is why it seems to be wishy-washy but isn't. This is the same type of reasoning (in addition to other things) many gave in their reason to believe Javert without too much trouble. In Javert's case, his ability to day-kill was provable where we could see it. In the case of TS and Ender, it isn't as cut and dried.

Make no mistake, had Javert reneged or waffled on his promise to kill today, many would have been voting his lynch.

The same for TS and Ender. I can take their claim at face value for the time being, but still be suspicious of them and voice misgivings about them when asked questions like "Top 3 scum reads please." Ender is proven to have been telling the truth. Unfortunately, he is dead now. My type of thinking in regards to claims, especially D1, is give the player a chance to prove them unless there is some overriding reason not to.

Both Ender's and TS's play, didn't warrant much trust. That is why they had to claim. I'm fairly certain that had either one claimed VT, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now as the one who claimed VT first, would have been lynched based on their play. That is why they didn't become 'obvtown' in my mind, or even cross from probable scum into neutral/null. They went into "wait and see." Don't vote, don't attack but certainly don't lie or try and gloss over what you are thinking of them when asked.

Hopefully, that will clear up my thinking on this. Without the PR claim, Ender would have been lynched. Same with TS if he had not claimed PR. The only thing that kept me from pushing Ender was his claim. The only thing that prevented me from actually voting TS was caution to not let scum end the day unexpectedly and his claim.

Being willing to vote/push/lynch in spite of the claims would not have been in the best interest of town at best, as we can see from ender's flip it can bite town in the ass. Outright scummy at worst.

[p-edit]
farside, hopefully the above will answer your question. If not, ask again and I would point to the partial disclaimer I put in that quote in regards to TS: Twistedspoon- I believe his claim{

I'll add my own disclaimer here:FOR NOW

} The part of that in brackets wasn't in Klazam's original post, I added that to show conditional agreement with the read.

[Klazam]

I didnt want to be vigged before i could have some input. Is that so wrong?

And "too experienced": actually, no. I dont have that much experience.

Newbie 1050
Open 288
Open 285
Newbie 1065
Mini Normal 1133
Mini Theme 1139
Open 290
...

Yes, you do. Stop trying to play the newb card, you're too experienced for that.

Post383 K, Understood.

I dislike EA's "They ARE scum, no doubt about it" thing. Besides, didn't you think Klaz was scum?

As for my theory about EA+Ender+Rhinox, I reckon EA and Rhinox could possibly still be scum, who dragged town into their plan. That however, doesn't seem like a likely concept. VOTE: Klazam because of generally bad scumhunting, previous lurking, and playing the newb card when he has plenty of experience.

Plenty of games, but I played like shit, so I wouldn't call that experience.

And I'm not playin the newb card, actually. I'm stating a fact, one that you seem excessively fixiated on.

[Rhinox]

ugh, I need to reread and figure out who my suspects are. Someone asked for a top 3, I don't have that right now. I'm not going to just throw names out as suspects without good reasons.

I was REALLY hoping Javert was gambiting, and we'd have an alive, confirmed town ender right now based on his reaction to being fake day-killed. As it stands, unless all of our PRs are now outed and scum have a RB and a GF, I'm suspicious of 2 1-shot cops in addition to a day vig. Think about it, if they aren't forced to claim D1, typical scenario would be they could claim results tomorrow, and they'd be 4 confirmed town. If the day vig is also town, they could take out a guilty result on D2, or the scummiest player without ending the day and progressing to night. That seems like a lot of power and a lot of cleared players potentially by day 2.

[Erratus Apathos]

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[Rhinox]

EA: Why is Oso more scum than TS or Klazam? I noticed you've used the same type of argument style in addressing all 3 of them. Each time it comes across as being super sure you found scum. Do you think all 3 are scum? and how certain as a rough percent for each?

[Erratus Apathos]

Rhinox: Oso is the scummiest because he trusted Ender and TS WAAAAAY too much for someone who supposedly still suspects them. The whole "I sort of believe their claims but not really" thing comes off like he wanted a lame excuse to jump off their wagons. It certainly doesn't come off as any kind of genuine scumhunting.

Here are my rough estimates of the percentage likelihood of being scum:

Klazam: one million percent
TS: thirty billion percent
Oso: NINE HUNDRED TRILLION PERCENT

basically what I'm saying here is I don't find percentages meaningful at all. But yes, all three are scum reads.