Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Me=Weird]

Maxous, can you please consolidate why you think I'm scum into one post. Thanks.
I can see Oso as an alternate lynch, seeing as how EA made a good point about believing the claims and still suspecting them.
Also, 244 by klazam, he accuses me and PS of role-fishing for mentioning the "I'll find out tonight", but, completely ignores 179, by oso, which was pointing out ender's softclaim, which could also be role-fishing. This could definitely be scum together, with klazam not wanting to spread suspicion on his partner.

[Rhinox]

Rhinox: Oso is the scummiest because he trusted Ender and TS WAAAAAY too much for someone who supposedly still suspects them. The whole "I sort of believe their claims but not really" thing comes off like he wanted a lame excuse to jump off their wagons. It certainly doesn't come off as any kind of genuine scumhunting.

Here are my rough estimates of the percentage likelihood of being scum:

Klazam: one million percent
TS: thirty billion percent
Oso: NINE HUNDRED TRILLION PERCENT

basically what I'm saying here is I don't find percentages meaningful at all. But yes, all three are scum reads.

I understand but that wasn't really what I was getting at. What I meant was, the tactics you're using - same quote over and over, many votes in a row, caps and spaces to call someone scum - the "HOLY SHIT EMPHASIS THIS IS SRS BSNSS" so to speak - is usally what I see from

Fate

someone who's absolutely sure they've found scum. I want to know, are you absolutely sure any/all 3 are scum, or are they just you're strongest scum reads and this is your playstyle/how you attack your scum reads?

[Erratus Apathos]

I'm not absolutely sure, I just like playing in overdrive. It's more fun that way.

[Juls]

First, I apologize for the delay in posting, I have had intermittent internet outage at my house the past couple days. I'm just going to get some random thoughts out that I have been mulling about since last night.

ugh, I need to reread and figure out who my suspects are. Someone asked for a top 3, I don't have that right now. I'm not going to just throw names out as suspects without good reasons.

I was REALLY hoping Javert was gambiting, and we'd have an alive, confirmed town ender right now based on his reaction to being fake day-killed. As it stands, unless all of our PRs are now outed and scum have a RB and a GF, I'm suspicious of 2 1-shot cops in addition to a day vig. Think about it, if they aren't forced to claim D1, typical scenario would be they could claim results tomorrow, and they'd be 4 confirmed town. If the day vig is also town, they could take out a guilty result on D2, or the scummiest player without ending the day and progressing to night. That seems like a lot of power and a lot of cleared players potentially by day 2.

I always struggle with cops especially because its such an easy fake claim. You just say you got an innocent or two and you are golden until LYLO in most cases. Then you get into a world of "what-if's" whether its a real cop or not. One-shot cops makes it even worse.
----

I'm having trouble with EA's atack on Oso. Not because it's a bad attack, it's not, it's really good in fact. However, I have had pro-town reads on EA and Oso all day. And Oso's reaction to the pressure from EA does not seem scum-like. I'm not willing to vote EA or Oso today, but it's certainly an interesting point.

----
I have been looking at the game some and NE is really getting a free pass on next to no participation. I am equally to blame for letting him slip under the radar as well. I tried to look at his post in iso a little bit last night and saw he had like 12 posts for the entire game and at least 3 of those were V/LA / RVS / fluff. So he is definitely creeping up my scum-list. If I get time I will try to look at some of his other games and see if lurking is his MO or a non-tell.


I probably won't be online tomorrow because I won't be home until late so it will likely be Saturday before I post again.

[farside22]

Maxous, can you please consolidate why you think I'm scum into one post. Thanks.
I can see Oso as an alternate lynch, seeing as how EA made a good point about believing the claims and still suspecting them.
Also, 244 by klazam, he accuses me and PS of role-fishing for mentioning the "I'll find out tonight", but, completely ignores 179, by oso, which was pointing out ender's softclaim, which could also be role-fishing. This could definitely be scum together, with klazam not wanting to spread suspicion on his partner.

This was my thinking with Klazam and TS. I completely missed Oso comment. It's not as interesting as this part below the rolefishing:

For my part, I'm still processing that one. Could be awkward wording or an incomplete thought or a soft-claim. I haven't decided which one for myself yet.

Man I need to reread this guy again. Has he always been giving himself multiple scenarios without giving his own opinion?
Its the let me be as vague as possible so I can slide in later and call it scummy since i never had a set opinion feel to it. This one and the one that EA quoted.

[Prosaurus]

YOU'RE RIGHT, PROSAURUS. LYING IS A WEAK SCUMTELL AT BEST. ANYTHING ELSE YOU WANT TO TEACH ME ABOUT THIS GAME?

Not yet. But maybe you should learn to read properly? He's willing to believe the claims while he wasn't sure they actually

are

true, he didn't say "OMG CLAIMS THEY ARE TRUE BUT THEY ARENT TRUE RIGHT?"

@TS Ender is confirmed because he's dead and the mod posted his role.

@Maxous *FACEPALM*
EA is all "THEY MUST BE SCUM BECAUSE I THINK THEY MAY HAVE POSSIBLY LIED. LET'S LYNCH THEM!" instead of my "They seem very scummy, therefore I'm voting for them". There

is

a difference.

@Klazam I thought I played horribly in my first game, but it doesn't matter. I learnt, so it should count.
Saying "I don't have much experience" when defending yourself is, infact, the newb card.

EA: Why is Oso more scum than TS or Klazam?

I noticed you've used the same type of argument style in addressing all 3 of them. Each time it comes across as being super sure you found scum.

Do you think all 3 are scum? and how certain as a rough percent for each?

To do an EA style response:
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
THANK YOU

Willing: Ready, eager, or prepared to do something.

Think about this.

I'm not absolutely sure, I just like playing in overdrive. It's more fun that way.

Hmmm... This will be considered.

Top 3 scum suspects now:
1.Klazam
2.EA
3.???

[Prosaurus]

Oops. Failed quote.

Fixed.

[Erratus Apathos]

Not yet. But maybe you should learn to read properly? He's willing to believe the claims while he wasn't sure they actually

are

true, he didn't say "OMG CLAIMS THEY ARE TRUE BUT THEY ARENT TRUE RIGHT?"

But "he wasn't sure they actually

are

true" is kind of an understatement here. Ender and TS weren't exactly smack dab in the middle of Oso's null reads, they were high up on his scumlist.

And then Ender and TS both said "Oh, actually I'm a one-shot cop," and Oso said "Okay, I believe your claims."

But then Oso continued to leave them high up on his scumlist.

Despite supposedly believing their claims.

WHY WOULD OSO FIND THEM SCUMMY IF HE NOW BELIEVES THEIR CLAIMS?

WHY WOULD OSO BELIEVE THEIR CLAIMS IF HE STILL FINDS THEM SCUMMY?

WHAT POSSIBLE TOWN MOTIVE IS THERE TO DO EITHER OF THOSE THINGS?

THERE ISN'T ONE!

WHY AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO SEES HOW OBVSCUMMY OSO IS?

[Prosaurus]

*Sigh*
He thinks they're scummy. But they claimed PRs, and if they're truthful like Ender, it's better to lynch someone else. Therefore, he's

willing

to believe their claims, incase they're truthful like Ender. But they still seem scummy. Get it?

Oso, this is what you meant, right? Or should I be agreeing with EA?

[Erratus Apathos]

No I don't get it, because it MAKES NO FUCKING SENSE

[farside22]

Pro: My view on this is that scum tend to not give a full opinion and leave their options open.
The I believe them for now but putting them on his scum list is letting him go either way without suspicion. It also doesn't make sense.
I had a strong town read on Oso. EA's moved up from scummy/null to null/town. He's pushing things and scum hunting. I'm not sure why Rhinox is questioning EA's push on those he finds scummy.
Nothing so far has changed my view on Klaz. NE is on V/LA till Sunday but he needs to post more once he gets back. Juls is right he is the least active in the game and his biggest, most indepth comments was when he was fighting EA on his read of ender.

[Oso]

*Sigh*
He thinks they're scummy. But they claimed PRs, and if they're truthful like Ender, it's better to lynch someone else. Therefore, he's

willing

to believe their claims, incase they're truthful like Ender. But they still seem scummy. Get it?

Oso, this is what you meant, right? Or should I be agreeing with EA?

Yes, that is exactly what I meant.

Quid pro quo

This for that.

Action did change, I did stop voting or attacking either one of them, based on the implied promised made in their claim: usable results that will help town.

Attitude did not and will not change, at least in TS's case now, until something tangible has been given to justify the conditional trust given based on his claim of 1-Shot Cop.

[Maxous]

Maxous, can you please consolidate why you think I'm scum into one post. Thanks.

Well I explained a lot of it in the first half of this post

You claim to of had a gut town read on Ender but you plainly bandwagoned.
How you reacted is not how I think that somebody with a gut town feel would act, even if the person was acting suspicious.

Those are my reasons however, when I was looking back, I did come across this quote which I must of skimmed over previously

a. I

didn't

think he was town. I've said already that I felt his scummy actions overweighed the gut town feel. All that happened was the claim changed that.

Ehhhhhhhh, hmm :/
Ugh.

@Me=Weird : Alright, why did Ender's cop claim push him from mafia to town? Why did'nt you think he was a mafia claiming cop despite his scummy actions?

[Me=Weird]

^But, confirmed town can be scummy, but they wouldn't be on scumlists. You're saying you believe their claims, but they're still acting scummy, so you're keeping them on your list. I'll repeat that. You are saying that you believe their claims, but still think they're scum.
P-edit: How many times do I have to say that his scummy actions overruled the gut read, but the claim changed that. Why would scum claim 1-shot cop? It's a much rarer role than normal cop, and thus a weaker claim. Why then, would scum claim a role like that? Normal cop, or doctor, would be much easier.

[Maxous]

P-edit: How many times do I have to say that his scummy actions overruled the gut read, but the claim changed that. Why would scum claim 1-shot cop? It's a much rarer role than normal cop, and thus a weaker claim. Why then, would scum claim a role like that? Normal cop, or doctor, would be much easier.

I don't see how claiming a one-shot cop is enough to sway somebody who thought the claimee was mafia.
Claiming a one-shot cop as mafia has an advantage over claiming a normal cop or doctor. One result is all that's needed to be given.
Incidentally a cop claim is the best claim for a mafia to make since they can usually accuratly fake it (bar the existence of third parties or millers)

I'm keeping my vote.

[Oso]

^But, confirmed town can be scummy, but they wouldn't be on scumlists. You're saying you believe their claims, but they're still acting scummy, so you're keeping them on your list. I'll repeat that. You are saying that you believe their claims, but still think they're scum.

My belief in their claims is conditional, I thought I was making that clear. You and Erratus are making it out (and maybe actually believe it) that I somehow granted them unconditional town status simply because of their claims. I didn't.

[Rhinox]

I'm not sure why Rhinox is questioning EA's push on those he finds scummy.

It seems artificial. I compared the style to fate in jest, but the difference is, fate uses the over the top emphasis in directly questioning his suspect. EA on the other hand is using the over the top emphasis to try to convince the rest of us. In other words, he's not using it to try to figure out who's scum, he's using it to try to push a lynch through. Its a subtle difference, and makes it potentially scummy. But I don't think its enough to even consider EA as a lynch candidate today. He's generally been saying stuff I agree with, or at least don't outright disagree with.

I really don't have a good suspect right now. Below are some of my gut instincts:

Juls and farside have been underwhelming so far for the most part. When I read their posts, I don't see much "trying to find scum", but rather a lot of "commenting on whats going on". Like the above quote by farside - it is not a direct question or accusation. It says nothing about what she thinks about the question or what it says about my or EA's alignment. I know thats just one small example, but thats the sort of vibe I'm getting from both Juls and Farside. My gut is telling me one or both of them could be scum hanging back just cruising under the radar. I expect more from both of them as town.

I have bad feelings about Maxous but I can't put a finger on why.

Javert is disappointing. He's not ruled out just because of his day kill.

Inspector Javert

shall be the one asking the questions from here on out.

There has been a dissappointing lack of follow through here by someone who is supposed to be role-confirmed "prob"-town.

Oso - thought was scum early, then felt better about. Not sure about the push on him now.

Twisted - gets a pass today.

EA - see above.

M=W - has been off my radar/no good gut read.

Prosaurus/Klazam read as newb-town or at least "newer"-town.

NE - has been off my radar/no good gut read.


So I think I could be down for lynching either M=W or NE for information - getting flips on players I have difficulty reading. Maaaaybe Oso, but I need to reread and remember why I was feeling better about him in the middle of the day. I don't see enough reason to push a lynch on someone I have any confidence in flipping scum other than unjustified bad vibes.

[Erratus Apathos]

Oh well, deadline's coming up in five days and I don't want to wait til the last minute to get things moving forward, so I'm moving back to Klazam. He still seems a lot less pro-town than he did in 1133, and I'd definitely rather lynch him than MW.

UNVOTE: Oso
VOTE: Klazam

[Prosaurus]

PEOPLE!

Willing =/= believe! Geez!

Anyway, has no one noticed that Klaz clearly has plenty of experience? How can he be newb?

[Me=Weird]

@max: That's true, but 1-shot cop is quite rare, I've never seen it in a game before. So it's much less likely to be believed than a normal cop claim.
@oso: I can see that, but you said you believed their claims, but still suspected that. It seems contradictory to me. I could see it if you wanted to wait for their results, but you just kept them high on your scumlist.
PS, I don't Klaz has claimed to be newb, just not too experienced, which I can see.

[Prosaurus]

@MW Check out Klaz's Wiki page, go to his "games" page. There's 12 games there.
Surely he won't still be a newb after 12 (Even if some are ongoing) games. According to Ender, I'm playing better than a newb, and this is my third game.

[farside22]

PEOPLE!

Willing =/= believe! Geez!

Anyway, has no one noticed that Klaz clearly has plenty of experience? How can he be newb?

I certain did not. I even posted a few links to completed games where he was town. Compare that to this game and it's not very similiar. He writes more in depth those games in regards to scum suspects and even post more. This time very low under the radar and not saying much about anyone.

Rhinox: I could say the same about your play reading you prior. It's like your here but not really pushing anything. How do you think lynching someone you have no read on helps?

[Juls]

Alright, lets shake this place up a bit. I didn't want to do this but seeing as how my partner is NOT helping matters and he is leading wagon with 4-days to go, I find it necessary. I would rather us both die eventually then to lynch him and then scum wouldnt have a hard time figuring out that I am his buddy.

Claim: Town-Mason with Klazham

1. We are confirmed to each other as town
2. We cannot masonize
3. We both crumbed it in our first post (Mine, Klazhams). Go back and look (First letter of first word of first sentence, First letter of second word in second sentence, First letter of third word in third sentence, and so on spells Mason).

We had hoped that scum would kill one of us and the other would be clear, but I won't let him be lynched by town.

If you want to lynch a lurker, lynch NE. I am also doubting my read on Me=Weird at the moment because Maxous and Oso jumped on so quickly. I have doubted my read on everyone this game. Either scum is doing a good job, town is doing a poor job, or I am just really rusty. I am guessing it is the latter. I apologize if this is the wrong decision to make. I have seen masons claim on D1 and it work out in the end. In fact, I was in that game with EA where RBT and Xtoxm claimed after one was about to be lynched and town won.

Unvote, Vote: NE

Does a single person have him in their town column?

[farside22]

Bah!
Juls it wasn't a lurker hunt for me. It was his lack of reads and scum hunting. Plus I didn't like that when he posted those that were rolefishing he ignored TS.
God I feel like I need to burn my notes and start from fresh again.

Unvote

While I reread a few things.

[Oso]

Well, I looked at the breadcrumbs Juls pointed out and they are there:

{1}

M

y (hopefully triumphant) return to mafia has arrived! {2}See

a

few familiar faces: Rhinox, Erratus Apathos, farside22, ender24.

{3}Let's get

s

tarted! {4}Hmmm...after reading

o

ver the first few posts, there is no one better to vote than....Vote: Rhinox.

{5}I know, right, not

v

ery surprising?

Except I think Juls was off by a word in the fifth sentence of her crumb.

Vote Twisted
{1}

M

ostly a random vote, if you know what I mean. ;D

{2}Hey

a

ll, how much experience do you have? {3}I’m really

s

hitty on D1, because I haven’t figured out how to play well on D1. {4}I’m hoping that

o

n this game, I’ll do much better.

{5}We can all hope,

n

ow, can’t we?

No reason from my end to disbelieve Juls. Neither have set off any bells with me since the game started.

My vote remains on M=W.

As to NE, generally positive about his play. As in low probability of being scum. He hasn't posted enough for me to have it be a really solid read. His posts don't contain a whole lot of fluff though. Did a quick ISO of him and all I can see is a lack of posting from him. He does make cases and place votes, his posts have thought put into them.