Newbie 1076: Day Three

[Glass]

Hello people I know and people I do not know. I shall catch up and be posting.

[Glass]

K, Sorry for the wall. First off, before anyone gets it wrong:

I AM MALE

. There is a handy "gender" listing below my avatar in case you forget.
Now for an intro-wall (erm... ya, sry about this)

Bump, if you did not replace in I would have been on you and DFL so hard for being a scumteam because he called you mr.marill. Do you happen to be acquinted with him?

DFL is insanely town. Like. Holy shit.
Sakako has grabbed my attention with a lot of his posts, in particular:

I just have one question for you all: Who do you think is most likely to be mafia?

Just a "wtf" moment, and then when criticized for it he says:

If you have a problem with that, I'll ask a different question.

Why are you trying to appeal to town? Why are you asking meaningless questions instead of actually doing something?

And since apologetic players irk me, I'm gonna say that CM is probably scum, if it's anyone.

Wait, you have played a game of mafia where there is NO SCUM? Thinking that somebody is scum because you don't like their playstyle is awful logic, and you yourself were just apologetic in your previous post. What's with that?

If he wasn't French, I'd say that was slightly scummy, even.

How does him not having english as a first language make what he said less scummy? Is "MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS" that hard to understand? Unless I misunderstood what you thought was scummy in his post?

Otolia, as someone who drew attention to themselves far too much in his early games, I can say that it's most usually a bad thing. Even when I was town, I still got lynched either day 1 or day 2, because I was trying to be too tricky.

The moral of the story is, don't do it. It's usually not pro-town to look like you've got a secret.

Anyone else agree?

The first couple lines looks like Sakako saying: "Don't bring attention to yourself, idiot!" which seems like scum mentoring to me. And what you said and the following "moral" do not line up. What the moral actually seems to be is "Don't draw attention to yourself".

I'm of the opinion self-voting isn't inherently scummy. More a sign of defeatism, regardless of which side you're on

QFT

Common Man's self-vote looks like bad AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.

There seems to have been some discussion over whether or not you are attacking CM here. You are essentially calling him scum, saying that he is trying to buy "non-maf" cred or town cred is saying that he is mafia, as townies don't try to buy any cred. So I agree with ice that you essentially supported the CM wagon but did not go on it yourself, even though you had no other suspects at the time that I can see.

don't even say that you hadn't read everything because

Actually, I asked to be put down as a replacement during the confirmation stage, so I've been reading the thread before I even got my replacement PM.

Ah, gosh. I must have missed that one.

LOL. I don't believe that at all. Such lame backpedaling.

The last Newbie game I played in (1055 for reference) had a guy called Gapoc who self-voted, giving up on Page 4 or so. Everyone took votes off him because of this and, surprise surprise, he was scum. Now, Common Man is so clearly doing the same thing here.

Ah yes, I forgot that commonman is simply a GAPOC CLONE. Thus meta from gapoc works on CM! Not to mention that meta is just awful anyways. In MY last newbie game (1047 for reference), town lynched papa zito because of a case based mostly on meta (his behavior in that game essentially perfectly matched a previous game he played as scum). Guess what, he flipped town.

I'd wager he's scum, and you're his buddy and you're refusing to let him be our D1 lynch by trying to paint me bad for voting against scummy actions, OR you're scum and he's town and you know his alignment so you can defend him without cause for worry.

So in both these scenarios chk is scum, but only in one of them CM is scum. Yet you were/are still voting CM. Why is that?

@Oli
Why wait until post 152 to vote ice? In post 152 all you did was attack chk with no new reasons why ice has suddenly appeared scummy.

Okay. I'm getting sick of this. I really want to vote CM again. But I'm not going to until either his replacement or himself explains his actions.

Also a lot of my other analysis is based on what CM says so... yeah, I don't have anything good for you guys at the moment.

BEEP BEEP BEEP! So instead of investigating other people you sit around adamantly saying that CM is scum, that you can't do anything until he shows us, and that you won't vote for him until he explains his actions? What if I don't explain his actions, will you never vote me? (EDIT: nvm, I see you did vote for me).

I won't unvote Olinea in the time being because I trust Grey to choose his vote carefully enough to be valid to my eyes as we have a similar playstyle.

Ya.... Except you know... It might not be valid?

I trust GreyICE because we have the same Role PM, thus if he thought Olinea was scummy why shouldn't I follow his ideas ?

Even if you/ice are town it does not make him infallible. If all townies were infallible there would never be any maf wins, now would there?

I am curious as to why that PM from ice has "Common Man:" at the top considering that it is all about Olinea.

Okay. I'm sick of this. I'm going to Vote: Common Man simply because he hasn't picked up his prod or anything like that, and it's been nearly a week since last he posted. So, either he's away, or he's scum. But he hasn't said anything - I think a week is probably enough time to at least tell people that you're gonna go V/LA.

lololololololololololol.

Not sure what to think about kage and bump yet.

VOTE: Sakako

[Glass]

Kage, why do I get the impression from this post that you're considering lynching on Day 1 now?

Not a bad thing, I'd just like to know if we got around to you.

Regardless of the second sentence, the tone of the first sentence is very critical (maybe I just read it that way?). Why are you trying to push kage back into the "No lynch day 1 is good" state of mind?

[Glass]

Hopefully after this wall I will have covered what I have wanted to so far. We'll see how it goes.

you'll notice that I qualified by saying "if he weren't French". That is to say, that it's in the nature of the French to keep much to themselves

Really? Cool, I am Canadian. What hidden nature do I have?

The question wasn't meaningless, it was an (obviously much misguided) attempt at scumfishing. I guess I was trying to catch noob scum out with that one

...
I am going to assume you are referring to this question (if I am wrong feel free to point me in the right direction):

I just have one question for you all: Who do you think is most likely to be mafia?

I don't see how this could catch a noob scum. At all. How did you expect the conversation to go?

Sakako: Who do you think is scum?
Random noob scum: Me!
Random noob scum: Wait! I mean... uh... Oh shit...
Sakako: Ha! You fell completely into my trap. I am a genius.

CM definitely said that he was the kind of player who always apologises to people -- and in my book that's a free ticket out of AtE land. "Oh, sorry for hammering you, but I'm pretty sure you're scum" makes a lot more sense if one has been apologising to people the entire game.

Is saying "Sorry for hammering you, but I think you are scum" AtE? How?

What's surprising is that Kage chose not to ride the Town read I had on him due to consistency in his No Lynch stance but this reversal is, yeah, unnerving.

It was not really a reversal, and that is what makes it unnerving to me. Kage has adamantly thought that no lynch is the best move, and after being presented with concrete evidence that no lynch is a poor move he kind of sits on the fence saying (and I quote): "I'm trying to decide right now whether I think I support it or not."
If kage had turned around, admitted he was incorrect, and agreed that a lynch is the best option I would have no qualms with him.

if I'm reading this correctly, you think it isn't inherently scummy to self-vote (please, I'd like an explanation on when it isn't)

I can explain this since I agree with kage on it. Self-voting (assuming that it is not a hammer) is not so much scummy as it is having a defeatist attitude, especially among newbies. Are you saying that you have never seen a townie self-vote because of this? IIRC newbie 1042 had parknourie self-voting as cop (and said that he would hammer himself if it came to it before that). I can grab you links if you really want.

Even going so far as to say you'd hammer Common if you "didn't think he was just being weird"? Which is something that especially tickles me when you spend the next couple of posts explaining that you think he's town. Yet you were "almost" willing to hammer.

I understand the contradiction between kage saying he was willing to hammer CM and supporting a no lynch, but this is just odd. Kage said that he would have hammered CM if he thought he was scum, he then goes on to say he thinks CM is town. How does this tickle you? It seems pretty consistent to me.

@Kage
Why did you feel that ice was not confident in his own arguments? I felt that he was...

It is times like these that I wish I was a double-voter.
And it was not as long as I thought

[Glass]

Oh dang, I missed this:

I'm just trying to teach the newer players a little from my own experience. Isn't that part of being an SE?

No, not at all. Being an SE is not about telling players: "Don't do this cause it brings yourself attention", your job is to teach by example and let newbies learn from their mistakes. The only thing you should be helping them out with is theory (such as kage thinking no lynch is a good move).

[Glass]

Is that so hard for you people to trust someone who has NO FUCKING INCENTIVES to lie to me ?

Ice is not perfect. I have already said this, you quoted it with no retort? NO TOWNIES HAVE INCENTIVE TO LIE TO YOU.

[Glass]

REMINDER: DEADLINE IS IN FOUR DAYS.

OMGWTFBBQ. I had no idea so little time was left.

Are you TRYING to push me to a strong no lynch stance?

SDjgfids! BAD KAGE!

We have 3 lynches to find our first mafia. Count them. 3. If we no lynch now we only have 2. Thus we should be lynching. QED
If people think you are suspicious than it is because you ARE suspicious or they are scum trying to make you look suspicious.

Kage, I seriously don't think you understand town's objective. Town's objective is to lynch scum, scum's objective is to appear town. You saying things like: "I would change my mind but that would make me look bad" while doing no scumhunting would be enough for me to vote you if sakako wasn't being so scummy himself. Stop threatening chk with a "I am going to no lynch if you attack me". You are arguing theory and not focusing on scum. You can't just pray that some miracle cop comes and pulls a guilty out of his ass. Is there concrete evidence that someone is scum? No. But trying to find scum is a hell of a lot better than sitting around hoping that we have a cop to save us. Have you ever played scum before kage? It is a lot harder than you think to appear town when you know exactly what is going on. If you are scum right now than you know this of course. /rant (That pretty much cover's kage's post, I did not feel like quoting tons of stuff)

Do you think that chk's attacking you is scummy? Or do you think he is being a misguided townie? Do you honestly think that nobody is looking scummy and nobody is looking town?

Honestly I've had this happen before. I was cop and (we could talk secretly) he was told to claim to me. He claimed mafia (there was no fool). That was an easy win.

I smell epicmafia trolling.

@chk
Thoughts on sakako?

[Glass]

@Kage
If you still don't get the lynch let me put it this way:

No lynching means we have 1 less lynch, essentially the maf get to decide on one more person to kill. Do scum kill scummy people? No. Do scum kill townie people? Yes. Thus no lynching now is the same as lynching someone who is town. The only difference is we have a shot of lynching maf if we actually lynch.

[Glass]

I think almost anything can be construed as scummy on the first day, and since I don't know how he plays or really anything about him, not anymore than anybody else.

Let's say we no lynch. Tomorrow someone is dead. Now what? We are in the same position we were in before, except we wasted our "random" lynch.

[Glass]

I can't believe that we have 2 people with awful theory ideas who refuse to budge at all.

[Glass]

Also, please, no more No Lynch discussion.

Normally I would agree with you, but I actually think that kage is town and if he not going to vote today that means we need 5/6 townies lynching maf (assuming no bussing) instead of 5/7.

It's unlikely, but I don't want some scum to think of themself as disposable and trollhammer him, especially if it's a newbie who tries to say it was a mistake afterwards.

hmmmm... This is so odd I don't even know where to start.
1. implying that sakako is not scum
2. if scum "trollhammers" him, wouldn't that make it obv that they is scum? Why would you not want that?

I just didn't wanna be hanging in the danger zone.

What danger zone is there? We have 4 days to reach a lynch. I don't want to have to make a last minute switch on this just to reach a lynch. In all the games I have played that has resulted in a town lynch when scum was going to be lynched.

[Glass]

It may be 3 days by now even.

[Glass]

Sorry for the triple post...

You admitted to editing the post

Would scum really admit to that considering that we were under the assumption that he hadn't?

despite the fact No Lynch has ZERO FUCKING VOTES

No Lynch (1): Kagetora

[Glass]

Well, the bandwagon there was such an awful move that I'm questioning if scum would actually ever do it.

Which bandwagon are you referring to? And why is it such an awful move?

[Glass]

Because one newbie is the meta for everyone, eh, Glass?

Park was actually an SE in that game, and chk seemed to think that it was ALWAYS scummy.

Also, sakako is L-2 and I have not seen any intent to hammer. So ya, no claim.

[Glass]

Can I just say, I REALLY liked that defence.

If you grant me the privilege of saying I didn't.

Going along with my notion that Sakako is scum, do we want the other Maf to have the options of: hammer Sak and reap the benefits because of the flip, or do nothing and be under the radar?

I don't care if maf hammers maf, I don't care if maf is under the radar while maf is hammered. I care that maf is getting hammered. (Party!)

That's assuming of course that they aren't already bussing, which, unless Otolia is the other scum, isn't very likely.

I think you mean IS very likely, unless you think that Otolia, myself, or Olinea is the other scum.

Danger zone being L -1, not the deadline.

What I was saying is that L-1 is not a "Danger Zone" because we are so close to deadline.

especially if it's a newbie who tries to say it was a mistake afterwards.

Ok, well... Otolia is already voting for sakako. Kage seems deadset on no lynch (FFS). So what newbie is going to come out and quickhammer?

You also seem to be under the impression that I'm against lynching Sakako. That's not true at all, hell, I'll hammer him if the time comes, I just didn't want it to be done without deliberation.

omg if you wanted to lynch sakako then you would be voting him. You just need to make it obv that sakako is at L-1. If you do that nobody can use the excuse that it was an accident.

What is this? I don't know for sure if Sakako is Mafia, and unless there's a cop or bussing, no one does. How does admitting that have any effect on anything?

Because saying: "I am fairly certain that sakako is mafia, but obviously not 100%" is different than saying "There is a large enough chance of someone hammering, and I am not confident enough that sakako is mafia, so I am going to unvote". Especially after you were the one pushing sakako's lynch to begin with.

[Glass]

@DFL: So you are willing to hammer sakako, but you are not willing to let someone else hammer sakako?

[Glass]

Well, no. It's definitely still a danger zone if someone is one post away from dying. That's not really arguable. We have half a week to figure it out, don't act brash.

3 days by now for sure, and that is really nowhere near enough time to figure stuff out, campaign for a lynch, and get the lynch to happen. I have already explained how every game I have been in where deadline is coming to a close and lynch needs to happen, we have switched from maf to town. You know why? Because if townies are away the maf have all the power to vote/unvote, and the townies have to follow.

If you want someone else lynched, I would not be beating around the bush by asking questions and I would be campaigning. If you are just still asking questions, I do not see why unvoting is necessary.

...if Kage were maf, and had the capability to hammer, other than the obvlynch, why would he not take it? Suicidal maf don't have to stick to their word ya know.

Meh, I guess. Still, that would mean a guaranteed mafia lynch the next day.

omg if you wanted to lynch sakako then you would be voting him.

That's not true at all. I'll probably end up still voting Sakako. Anyway, Common almost hammered himself, and somehow weaseled completely out of the ordeal.

But it is true. And you make it sound like common played somehow nefariously in order to not get lynched.

I didn't want the discussion period to be possible to cut short. How awful of me? I don't get your point.

See the top of this post.

Oh wow, are you joking? Did you even read my post? I clearly explained why I unvoted Sakako, it has nothing to do with being the hammer.

It has to do with other people being the hammer though, watch:

but I don't want some scum to think of themself as disposable and trollhammer him, especially if it's a newbie who tries to say it was a mistake afterwards.

You also seem to be under the impression that I'm against lynching Sakako. That's not true at all, hell, I'll hammer him if the time comes, I just didn't want it to be done without deliberation.

But ya, I see that you just want to use the rest of the day so it's cool.

You entirely disregarded my point about how I'm still questioning Otolia. Do you think it's wrong for me to not be completely done investigating?

I never said that. But you can both vote and investigate.

Do you really think I might be scum because of the unvote, or are you just bored?

Don't think you're scum. bored? Slightly, but I am improving my reads more than anything.

I also noted your lack of a response as to Otolia's bandwagoning.

Indeed. I still think that otolia is town. I am waiting for otolia's defense before I start doing any defending.

[Glass]

@MOD
Can we get a day number or something for deadline?

[Glass]

Right now, I feel like scum are Sakako and either DBE/Chk.

[Glass]

I was a happy glass waking up, but then I come to this.... I am no longer a happy glass.

OTOOOOLIAAAAAA
IF YOU DO NOT VOTE WE NEED 5/5 TOWNIES TO LYNCH A MAFIA, AND WITH DBE MIA WHO KNOWS IF THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE!

@Chk
Way to take what kage said completely out of context.

and if I didn't think he's just being weird I would have hammered him.

I do not like this bump, I do not like this at all....

First off bump, it is pretty clear that you are voting otolia because you dislike his playstyle instead of thinking that he is scummy.

Bump comes into the game jumping onto the easiest target he can find (CM) and then sits around doing nothing but complaining about lack of activity and some one-liners in between.

THE LACK OF POSTS IN THIS THREAD IS DISTURBING

Grey, this is getting boring.

Can we do something now?

Oh btw bump:

Did it never occur to you that YOU'RE town, so your ideas are also good...?

This was directed at Otolia in ISO 13
How do you know that otolia is town? If you know that otolia is town, why are you voting for him?

Anyways, I come in and bump pretty much jumps ship on the CM wagon saying that I am town. Changing reads is not scummy, but if you really thought that CM was scum you would have at least tried to poke at me. In that same post ISO 14 bump says:

Otolia's whole "I'm following someone else's logic" is very anti-town. It's not scummy, but anti-town.

and

It's so good in fact I WOULD vote for Sakako but he's at L-2.

The reason I'm super suspicious of Sakako though

Ok, neat. So from that I think it is safe to assume that you think that sakako is scum and that otolia is town. Not voting is kind of meh, but you are just going to use DFL's argument if I attack you on that, so it is pointless.

Next post bump turns around thinking that otolia is the scummiest thing that has walked the earth. He attacks otolia for not listening to reason even though he said in ISO 14 and ISO 12 that it is not scummy (ISO 12 bump says he gets town points for it, ISO 14 he says its not scummy).

you're voting Sakako PURELY because you dislike No Lynch?

Wowowow. I thought you wanted a sakako lynch? What happened man?

ISO 19:

I didn't really want to lynch Sakako today, but after that AtE defence I would be okay with it. I'm not going to hammer simply because I would much rather lynch Otolia today, or even Kage.

Oh, and in ISO 21:

I know, from your point of view, he's town and you're town.

Directed at otolia, why are you so insistent that otolia is town?

I have yet to hear a good argument of why Otolia is scum. Bump, you have yet to explain why ice would be telling otolia who is town if he were scum, you have yet to explain why otolia would admit to editing the post if doing so would incriminate him. Your jumpiness in reads is truly frightening though.

tl;dr
If sakako flips scum I am lighting bump's arse on fire.

[Glass]

Bump just said that he knows that you are town, essentially.

[Glass]

Wasn't a question to you, I was saying that mrbump was talking to you.

[Glass]

But...there's one vote on you.

two, actually.

And I actually don't get the point of your post. Are you trying to link kage and sakako?

[Glass]

I really need a Modcount

1. Nachomamma8
It seems we have one mod.

If you mean vote count I think I can give one.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (2) - Sakako, MrBump
Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0)-
Olinea (0) -
Sakako (3) - Glass, Olinea, chkflip
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -
chkflip (0) -
Not Voting (2): DFL, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora

Really? I know Bump, but who else?

Sakako.

[Glass]

Good rebuttal bump, just a few things I want to point out:

First off bump, it is pretty clear that you are voting otolia because you dislike his playstyle instead of thinking that he is scummy.

Otolia has contributed nothing to town, continues to sit on a read given to him by someone FROM HIS POINT OF VIEW is town, can't explain his vote fully, then votes Sakako just because he dislikes No Lynch. Really. He has expressed no read on Sakako really and just wants to lynch him to end the day.

You just said: "I don't like how he is playing. Oh, and he did one scummy thing that I forgot to mention when I voted him".

Common Man was viewed as Newb Town. Everyone just unvoted him in seconds after a very faulty defence, saying he was just a newb. I'm sorry, NO. He looked incredibly scummy to me.

I thought I was I L-2 when I came in?

But you're not. You're his replacement and I generally don't think of them as the same, if that makes sense. Your opening wall screamed "TOWN" at me and then it was obvious that Common WAS just a Newb.

Ok, how are you so sure that otolia isn't just a newb?

Misrepping me.
So hard.
From everyone's point of view, they are town. Everyone tries to look town, right? There's no point in saying, every time, "If you're town from your point of view ______", because that just wastes time. Innocent until proven guilty and all that jazz.

Not a misrep. But your response is okay.

Then his vote on Sakako changed things simply because that looked incredibly opportunistic. Oh look, this guy has a high chance of dying, I've expressed no read on him whatsoever before this, LYNCH HIS ASS! NO.

Sooo.... Why did he unvote? Was he trying to make himself look town by doing that?

You also seemed to miss the part where I said chkflip, Otolia and Kage are my top scumreads. That implies Sakako is not one of my top scumreads.

ISO 14 you said sakako was your top suspect.

Otolia admits to editing the post. What'd he edit? The part where ICE instructed him on what to post, and how this made him look town.

This is pure speculation. You think that he posted that pm just to look town?

Aaanyway. I'm tempted to hammer Sakako now purely because we're not lynching Otolia, Kage or chkflip. No one else wants to. There's no point keeping my vote on someone if it's not doing anything.

Sakako is L-2.

PRE-edit:
did that just happen?
VOTE: otolia

[Glass]

Also, I didn't pull anything out of context. At all. Kage said that he never mentioned hammering, so I showed him where he spoke of hammering.

Kage said he was never close to hammering, not that he never mentioned it.

[Glass]

Is Otolia a fed-up Mafia, or a fed-up troll?

no such thing as a "fed-up troll", but could he be a fed-up townie trying to get lynched just to screw us? Normally I would say no, but otolia seems actually pissed off at town so I could see himself trying to get lynched. I am going to have to think about this for a bit. Another point that I just thought of is that mods don't tend to like it when mafia get replaced due to strategic reasons. Is nacho like that? Again, I don't know. But it is something to think about.
UNVOTE:

[Glass]

Glass, when'd I say Sakako was my top suspect? I don't remember saying that o.O

Although you did not say the exact wording "sakako is my top suspect" when you went through your "lynst" you said...

I WOULD vote for Sakako but he's at L-2.

And after that you did not vote for anybody. It is pretty clear that sakako was your top suspect. If you did not, why did you not vote for anybody at the end of your post?

The thing is, though, Common's play reeks of Newbiness and Otolia has said he's played multiple times IRL

True, but so did CM and kage.

If we let someone replace in for him, the replacement has a clean slate

No, just no. You do not clean the slate of somebody when they replace in. If a cop has a guilty on someone and they replace out, are they no longer scum? No, they are still scum.

Also, why do you assume a lynch on Otolia would be a mislynch, chk?

Didn't I attack you for essentially the exact same thing a couple posts ago and you said "innocent until proven guilty.... blah blah blah"?

[Glass]

Oh, and

VOTE: Sakako
I think that otolia is just having a hissy fit. Not to mention that sakako is really trying to deflect suspicion onto anyone he can find it seems, either that or he was trying to get otolia to get his vote back onto olinea so he couldn't get lynched. (he wanted to vote olinea, but that would result in a deadlock? lolwut?)

PRE-edit:
See post for answer.

[Glass]

Anything to say before we go to nighttime sakako?

[Glass]

Oh dam, that gambit doesn't even work because of nacho's rules.

Fine, I will come out and say sakako is actually L-1 right now, not hammered.

[Glass]

If you flip town my suspicions will be on (censored for own safety).

[Glass]

PS: I don't believe that you missed the post where i said you were L-1

[Glass]

No, I saw that post. I just thought you were trolling.

...

-waits impatiently for DFL to hammer-

[Glass]

Hey cool, I am on at just the right time it seems.

First thing first:
@Otolia
You going to stay in the game or replace out?

As for kill analysis, I think it is legitimate as long as it does not go into PR fishing and does not overtake scumhunting. So a few things to mention:
1. Mafia clearly was not aiming for PRs. Means we are most likely in a 2 goon setup as if it was a goon+RBer they could not take the risk of not aiming for PRs with the risk of there being a cop (with protection) who could get a guilty on the RBer.
2. killing the IC N1 is typically a strategic move in a newbie game because of their prowess, yet chk was not being the most proactive scumhunter day 1 (no offense chk) and was not the towniest person.
3. Chk was fosing DBE+Kage. Either maf wanted to get a target off their back or was trying to frame kage/DBE. Can't say which really. Again this would probably not happen in a maf+RB setup because of the cop+doc threat.

In conclusion: 90% sure we are in a 2 goon setup. Feedback is welcome.

Will be rereading and posting later tonight/tomorrow.

[Glass]

@Kage
Who do you think is scum/town?

@Bump
Who do you think is more likely scum between kage and otolia?

[Glass]

Siiiigggghhhh. Back to this AGAIN?

[Glass]

It is common knowledge that a no lynch day 1 is a bad move. Kage has obviously realized this, but refuses to say he does because it would "make him look bad". Arguing this further is pointless unless he insists on no lynching today as well, in which case we each get 5 free hits on him. I know that you are not trying to learn that a no lynch is better, you are trying to attack kage by pointing out the flaws in the no lynch theory. He has already demonstrated his inability to change opinion even in light of obvious logic, so if you want to attack him there is a good place to start as any, but you trying to add more to this point is not necessary nor making your case stronger because it is already proven to us.

Anyways, I want to hear from DBE, otolia, and kage before I start pointing fingers.

[Glass]

@Olinea
lolololololololololol. Have fun with that.

@Otolia
It is your decision whether to replace out or not.

[Glass]

The amount of fail in Oli's post is truly stunning.

Let me point out what is wrong with it.
a VCA is entirely wild speculation if a scum has not flipped. Let me show you through the power of quoting and asking questions.

Okay, since the VCA is guiding my vote for the time being

This is so scummy I don't even know what to say. Are you saying that this VCA is better than ALL the information you gathered over day 1? How on earth can it be the only thing guiding your vote?
VOTE: Olinea
Now, onto the actual VCA

Common Man wagon picks up steam, Darkie's vote has been on longer, but I can't say I can honestly expect scum Darla to get on board with a Common Man wagon expecting it to go to completion.

Really? You don't? In most newbie games I have played/spectated the VI newbie who gets wagoned early on is eventually lynched because they have no idea what is going on, let alone have enough knowledge to be able to show people that they are town enough to unvote them.

@chkflip: Well as of what i think of the three who voted me.
DarkFlashlight: He doesn't strike me as scummy at all. He played calm and stated logical ideas instead of "he is just a noob mafia who got scared, lynch him now".
Sakako: I've been getting a small aura of scum from him ever since his first post and i cant exactly put my finger on it as to why. But beside that aura he seems fine to me.
DarlaBlueEyes: She seems the most scummy out of the three. When she first voted me, the only reason she had was "scummy is as scummy does". Then the next post she still did give a reason. Then after that post she finally gave a reason which was nothing more than just "He is a noob mafia".

Overall I think it may hint towards Darkie-CM/Glass, like Darkie tried to play a bus and the wagon shot up faster than expected, hops onto Town.

What the... So I am DFL's scumbuddy because CM said that he thinks that DFL is town? What makes you think that DFL is scum in the first place? What makes you think that I am scum in the first place? Your accusations here are truly just wild speculation.

MrBump/Glass now? I have a hard time believing Darkie and Glass, as a potential scumteam, would try back-to-back voting on Sakako, but it might have been a ruse to de-fuse any lingering Common Man stuff.

Where are you getting this from man? Did you not just say a second ago that CM's post points to me and DFL being a scumteam? Where is this bump/glass shit coming from? Because bump unvoted me? You don't think it is possible that he unvoted me because... There was reason to unvote me? You realize that sakako also meant to unvote before he did?

Darkie's off Sakako now when the wagon starts picking up heat. Interesting.

Paraphrased version: "I want to attack DFL for this, but then I realized that sakako flipped town, so I can't even yell out that it might be a sakako/DFL scumteam"

MrBump rounding it off here. His reasoning is that the Sakako wagon is probably not going to burn out and he wanted to get to DAT STORY TIEM. Uh-uh. There was pretty much no suspicion from MrBump on Sakako, and he had doubts about Otolia/Kagetora/chkflip beforehand.

Fair point, but nothing to do with the VCA.

~I'd be willing to bet a chunk of money on there being at least 1 scum in [DarkFlashlight, Glass, MrBump]

And why is that? I mean, it is possible, but it is just as possible that
1. You are scum
2. There was no scum on his wagon

I can see Darkie/Glass and MrBump/Glass but not Darkie/MrBump. [DarlaBlueEyes, Kagetora] make everybody generally uneasy but they don't pair well with many.

So now you voted me because... Well I am not really sure, I think it is because if two out of me, DFL, and bump are scum than I am a likely scum?
THAT IS A PRETTY BIG IF, OLI.

From what I see is that since you had no confirmed scum to actually make your VCA mean anything, you did your entire VCA under the assumption that I am scum and then placed your vote on me because your VCA shows that I am scum. Circular logic.

[Glass]

@Everyone, why do you think chkflip was killed?

We already covered that and I would rather not go back there unless someone has some genius idea.

This thread needs moar

posts

dbe + oli.

fixed

[Glass]

See:
323, 324, 338

DFL saying essentially the same thing I did, along with others who did not say anything in their first posts about the NK (where I would expect NK talking to be), made me think that they agree with us or believe that NK analysis is rather pointless. Again, if they have something genius to say about it they can go ahead.

[Glass]

Well... That sucks. Good luck oli.

What I forsee for the next few days:
-DFL to post once or twice
-DBE to continue to be AWOL
-bump to complain about lack of posting
-Oli to not post
-Kage and otolia continue to only respond to messages/questions directed at them

[Glass]

Bad grammar in last post. Meh.
Since I want to try and get the ball rolling a bit:

@Kage
You have not expressed your thoughts on anybody other than otolia, who you believed to be scum. So why have you not voted?

[Glass]

Considering the situation I would say it is null. I can't see a townie continuing to argue that that VCA actually meant something, at the same time I can't see a mafia trying to pass it off as something.

Your third post sucks too bump, you have my name in the quote in all caps. (If you post with the exact same thing AGAIN just to edit my name I will not be impressed btw)

[Glass]

So, oli asking kage about his scumpicks made me remember why I thought he was town.
UNVOTE:
But I think that we are wrong oli (if you were/are thinking what I was).

So, it is time to show you guys something neat. And this could easily blow up in my face and make me look like an idiot, but it must be done. I have really been thinking if I want to take such a risk, but I eventually gathered up the courage to post this.
I really thought that kage was the cop.
Ya.
Reasons are pretty obvious, if you really didn't think that kage was cop (I am looking at you bump) than you really should look over what he was saying. His very first post said that we should no lynch and let a clear lead tomorrow. This makes no sense unless there is a cop; kage is not a total newb so he would realize that there is only a 50% chance of there being a cop (unless of course he was cop). There is absolutely no other reason to think that a no lynch is better (ya, ya, other games bs. You obv looked at the setup before you started the game) and him continuing on the no-lynch route is just a way for him to not have to scumhunt. I disregarded what chk said about him claiming VT because I didn't think he really claimed VT there, he claimed being town. He continued to make me think that he was the cop, which is why I did not really attack kage and at the start of today I asked him who he thought was town and who he thought was scum. That would have been the perfect opportunity for kage to say whatever inno/guilty he had found without outing himself and possibly getting another report the following night (and if he died we would still have his report).

Anyways, Oli telling me to drop the no lynch made me think that oli also thought that kage was cop (unless he actually did just want us to stop talking about it) and did not want him to be outed by constant questions about why he favored a no lynch. Since kage did not die tonight, I thought at the beginning of today that oli was town.

Now, why is kage NOT cop?
In response to my question of who is town/scum he said that he thinks that otolia is scum, but did not give any town reads or lay down a vote on otolia. Not exactly the response I would expect from someone who would have a guaranteed inno/guilty (Unless of course there is a roleblocker and he was roleblocked, but then there is a doc and scum know he is the cop anyways, so outing him is not a huge deal).

Also, kage logged in in the middle of the night without posting anything and was in no other games. The reason I did not point this out early is pretty obv, I thought that he might be cop. What is also interesting is that about half an hour after my first post of the day, kage logged in once again and posted nothing. Him trying to hide that he was online during the night perhaps?



So ya, kage is teh scum. I may go rooting through his day 1 posts now to find what other scumminess I can find.
Until then
VOTE: Kagetora

[Glass]

I am very curious to hear kage's defense (especially of why he was logged in at night).

[Glass]

Oh, as to why he logged in at night, I assume it was to check to see if the thread is open. Of course, I assume the mod would tell him via the scum QT, but he might have checked anyway. I can't think of any other explanation.

Are you really defending kage here?
You know, maybe to send in a kill? You also don't need to login in order to see if a thread is open, but you do to send a kill. Also, why would he check

[Glass]

EBWOP: (pressed submit instead of clicking the box, doh!)

Are you really defending kage here?
You know, maybe to send in a kill? You also don't need to login in order to see if a thread is open, but you do to send a kill. Also, why would he check that the thread was open and then post nothing (after the night ended)

[Glass]

Scum often send kills in through the QT to save time.

Meh, I guess. The game where I was scum the mod did not accept kills through the QT. But I guess each mod is different.

How does it take someone three minutes to notice a mistake as terribad as that?

Just something to note...

I don't get what you are saying?

[Glass]

This question makes no sense...maybe he just didn't feel like contributing anything, or he couldn't find anything useless to say. If it was after the night, then it obviously wasn't for a kill, so this is pretty much just an ordinary statement.

Dude. Read my original post. He was logged in during the night. He logged in AGAIN after night to cover his tracks of being on during the night.

I'm gonna feel really stupid if Otolia is Maf.

This, but I doubt he is.

[Glass]

Case in point:
Kage hasn't logged in since april 1. So the odds of him just logging in randomly (especially at THOSE times) seem rather slim.

[Glass]

Well... I am lazy so case on kage will be coming tomorrow. Well, a lot of it is already made in my other post, but you know... The rest of it.

Can someone come and actually post something good? Like why they think someone is scum, or at least who they think is scum? Bump saying stuff, followed by me saying stuff and bump saying "Good work Glass, A+" and then repeating the cycle is really not helping anyone except scum.

[Glass]

Going to class so I don't have time for a full-blown response but this made me lol and was too good to pass up.

Where is the scum motivation in trying to stick to a Town meta? To appear Town? Appearing Town is not a scumtell.

trying to stick to town meta = trying to appear town = scum's entire gameplay

[Glass]

Looking town =/= trying to look town

[Glass]

wtf are you talking about oli?

Here is how the convo went:

Oli: What's the scum motivation in trying to look town?
Glass: It's scum's goal to appear town...
Oli: So town should act scummy?
Glass: (Hmm, he clearly misunderstood what I was saying) No, trying to look town is scummy. Being town is not scummy.
Oli: You're right, some people look town regardless of alignment.
Glass: ...

You thinking that there is no scum motivation in trying to look town is such a steaming heap of crap. I can't tell if you are trying to change the subject or actually just don't understand what I am saying.

Now what is the scummiest?
The person who lurks through day 1 and part of day 2?
The person who ignores day 1 and talks nonsense?
The person who doesn't scumhunt and is trying to look town.

All pretty scummy, but I personally think that these are ordered from least to most scummy. Well, I am home now and will be working on the kage case.

[Glass]

@Oli
You shouldn't need to try and uphold a town meta if you are town, it should come naturally.

Now why kage is scum:

He tries to look town above lynching the mafia. This is very scummy because the scum's wincon is to survive, while the town's is to lynch mafia. During day 1 he failed to scumhunt at all under a false pretense of believing that the no lynch was a better move. Kage even came in with an unprompted, very strong post which I would have seen as very town if he had actually backed it up with his actions.
Here is what I am responding to in particular:

Look just gonna say this now, I don't really care if I survive this game, I just hope that if/when you lynch me the town will be in a better position.

Here he is saying that he does not care if he is lynched, as long as the mafia get lynched. So why do his actions show the exact opposite? Just an attempt to gain some town points.

Kage has not done any scumhunting. His excuse day 1 was that anything can look scummy, really a weak excuse since nothing will change the next day unless a cop turns up with a guilty. His excuse day 2 is... umm... nothing?

He has been voting illogically. At the start of the day he stated that he was fairly certain that otolia's claim was an actual scum claim. Instead of attacking otolia he sits around for some more and then comes out with this post:

Olinea, Glass, MrBump, DBE were on that wagon

Not true, it was oli, bump, DFL, chk, and me on that wagon.

Right now my number 1 pick is DBE as my other two picks died yesterday.

WTF happened to thinking otolia is scum? In this post kage even says that DBE is scum and that her buddy is either oli or bump.
In that post the one of the only reasons you give for voting DBE is that you think that someone on the sakako wagon was scum (for some reason...) and that DBE was the most likely (even though she wasn't on the wagon...). The other reason you gave was a link to a post in which DFL voted for DBE because he did not like her lurking. Since the first reason is destroyed I guess you are sheeping the one reason DFL gave to jump on the wagon (and even that is not very clear tbh).
Seems to me like you are jumping onto a counter-wagon to save yourself and thus go onto the easiest wagon you can find (DBE is nowhere, how could she attack you for it? Right? And DFL is on it so he MUST have a good reason to be on it)

Him coming online to check if night is over is also bs.

The first one I came in wondering if the night was over. It wasn't. The second one I didn't feel like I had much to contribute at the time so I didn't bother posting.

so you came on to see if night ended. It hadn't. So then when you came on again to see if night had ended (and it had) but you didn't feel like posting? Why were you waiting for night to end if you didn't feel like posting?

tl;dr version: Kage is scum. Lynch him ASAP.

[Glass]

Looking Town sometimes comes naturally regardless of alignment.

Disagree, but completely irrelevant right now.

Wouldn’t this reinforce the idea that he thought chkflip was scum?

no.

Lemme check some of Darla’s other games and see if she’s inactive in only this one.

I checked when day 2 started and she hadn't been active in her other games (if she had been she would have gotten my vote right away), tell us your findings though.

You can't forget why someone is scummy.

Remind me to talk about this post-game.

Can we not talk about it during-game?

I know the votecount Nacho posted as of Sakako's lynch was wrong, and DFL was on twice. I'm pretty sure DBE also voted Sakako.

Nah, DBE was on me for all of day 1. Votecount that nacho posted it was correct by my count.

It seems like you knew he was town like scum would and then added on the last part at the end just to seem town.

Bump attacking this again worries me. I knew what kage was talking about, and I will paraphrase.
"I am surprised that chk flipped town, but the mafia killing him is not that big a surprise considering that he is a town IC."

"OH KILLING SAKAKO WAS BAD HE WAS TOWN"
"YOU SHOULD HAVE LYNCHED ME!"

This is actually really good though, I may have to reread and reconsider my read on oto.

[Glass]

@Equinox
Prod DBE please?

[Glass]

@Kage
who, if anyone, on your wagon do you think is scum?

@DBE, DFL, oto
What do you think of the kage wagon?

[Glass]

I would be indifferent; I am fairly confident that kage is scum, but I would love to hear SOMETHING from DBE before we head into a potential lylo situation.

[Glass]

Or are we?

[Glass]

What are you talking about oto? We lynched sakako right before deadline. I want to hear from Dbe before the hammer though.
@DFL + oto
Let me tell you something good that I have heard from many players.
Town runs on momentum and activity, the only thing that unnecessarily extending the day does is get people to lose interest and a decrease of activity. We are already seeing this decrease in activity. No one is pushing an lynch except for Kage.

[Glass]

I asked what the case was on Kage

No you didn't. The case is clearly laid down in post 384, you skipped talking about most of it in your post.

you imply I should've already hammered.

Cool story bro.

I want to hear from Dbe before the hammer though.

There's irony in saying extending the day is bad, then adding in you want someone to reply first. Isn't that exactly what I did?

Did you say that extending the day is bad? I must have missed that.
btw, your scum is showing.

Glass, what's your take on the "If Otolia doesn't produce the rest of GreyICE's PM, he's scum"?

Considering that he hasn't produced it by now it is likely it won't be produced, does it necessarily make him scum? I don't think so, I delete my PMs quite often, so I wouldn't be surprised if he deleted it before he was asked for it. I kind of find it difficult to believe that ice would send oto a pm to edit and post to make him look town and then oto admits to editing it.

[Glass]

MAJOR FOS: OLINEA

Once we get kagetora lynched and he flips scum, look at oli.

bump, you realize that otolia PICKED ice to be his replacement and thus probably knows his outside of mafiascum? Judging by the context I don't think that ice was saying otolia is scum. In fact I would be willing to bet a fair amount of money that otolia is town.

Why would ice include his reads in the pm if otolia is scum?

[Glass]

What'd Olinea do?

Read Day 2. Don't really want to make a case on oli yet for fear of letting kage slip through the cracks.

@DFL
I hope you realize what a pain in the ass it is to reply to such a poorly organized post, so now people will have to look back and forth to understand what I am saying.

lolol@Glass. You twisted that up soooo much.

If that is the case why did bump/oli/oto not call me out on twisting it up "soooo much"?

Explain the motive behind

So that we don't sit around doing nothing waiting for deadline to come around before someone hammers? That response was mostly directed at post 408, I decided to direct it towards you as well because of your actions during day 1.

To be honest, I don't really understand the case on Kage. The way he's acting seems worse to me than anything's he's specifically done. All I can think of is logging in at night and intentionally withholding voting when he wanted to VOTE: yesterday.

LOL. THAT IS NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS ME AND YOU DID NOT SAY YOU WANTED ME TO EXPLAIN THE CASE. YOU JUST MADE A STATEMENT. WHEN PEOPLE SAY: "I DONT UNDERSTAND THE CASE ON XXX" IT MEANS THEY DONT AGREE WITH THE CASE.

What was your point in even saying that?

You attacked me for not responding to your question which wasn't a question which wasn't directed at me? I thought it was amusing.

I don't even know what to say about this. Refer to my own quote from just above. The only things your 384 talked about were:
1. Refusing to vote
2. Having then dropping suspicions of Otolia
3. Voting for Darla
4. Logging on during night

The actual things I talked about:
1. Kage tries to look town.
2. NO SCUMHUNTING
3. Illogical voting/seemingly random shifts in reads
4. Logging in at night
And you only covered 4 and a bit of 3.

And there is a difference between wanting to get SOME content before hammering and possibly going into lylo and already having content and no chance of going into lylo.

You're trying far too hard.

Orly?

@Oto
Ya, the VCA is one reason why I think that oli is scummy. But if/when kage flips scum there is tons to link him to.

[Glass]

This sucks. Can we just replace DBE? Honestly, her coming on every few days saying "Sorry for the V/LA, will catch up" is getting really odd. She has not posted a single thing of content since I replaced in ffs.

[Glass]

And by content I don't mean like contributing to town and whatnot, I mean she actually hasn't said anything regarding the game since I came in except for

I do not think Otolia is scum. Honestly he strikes me as a very newbynoob with communication problems. Yes he's been aggressive and played badly but anyone who's been in many newbie games should be able to tell the difference.

[Glass]

Fantastic, Kagetora has a replacement. You're instantly 19238934% cooler because of the FE avatar but I'm afraid we'll have to lynch you anyway. Sorry.

And being canadian, but ya.

your cases against Kage read like you're slamming a VI newbie for being a VI not used to Mafiascum's way of doing things, rather than slamming scum.

And yet, I have oto as one of my townest reads.

Glass: Why are you so adamant about lynching a VI?

I'm not. I am adamant about lynching scum.

[Glass]

V/LA until Thursday due to many upcoming tests.

[Glass]

IM BACK!

I caught up quite quickly.
Thoughts:
Bump is town.
I am town.
4 to lynch.
Scum could easily have hammered kage by now since bump has been practically begging for a hammer.
DBE needs replacing.
This means that most likely either kage is scum or DBE+oli is scum. Yes, that is from my perspective, but once I get wtfpwnt tonight you guys can hopefully come to the same conclusion if kage flips town somehow.

[Glass]

Might I suggest you type up your case on Olinea now and then in dusk post it?

I got scum vibes from him when he jumped on the oto wagon without thinking through what oto said (I know you did the same bump, but you are known for your brashness, whereas oli earlier stated to ice that he is careful about his votes).
The odds of me dying tonight aren't even that great now that I think about it, if I survive tomorrow I'll look at it. It is not like I am certain that oli is kage's scumbuddy anyways, there are other possible suspects (mostly DFL for him thinking that it is better to lynch a lurker than someone who is genuinely scummy and DBE because I have no read on her).

[Glass]

DFL, you seem to have some beef with me since lately you've been just nitpicking my posts and mostly ignoring the posts of others. You don't need to be all passive-aggressive on me, I can handle you saying that you have issues with how I am playing/think I am scum/are angry because I think you could be scum/whatever.

I repeatedly said WHY I'm voting Darla

So you

AREN'T

voting DBE because she is lurking? I will admit, I thought it was possible that maybe I did miss your reasons for voting DBE so I looked at your ISO of day 2. Here is what I found when oli accused you of going for a lynch all lurkers policy.

I believe all of DBE's reasons for V/LA, and I'm indifferent to the fact that she's doing it, however unproductive it is. My point is that, if you were so inconvenienced as to have made like, three actual posts in a 16 page game, why would you not replace? You're not helping town by not being there. On the flipside, she says she's reading at least, so she can see that hardly anyone truly suspects her, so if she doesn't replace and keeps the inactive streak, it's a pretty safe ride, why endanger that by gambling on a replacement?

So your argument is that scum is less likely to replace. I call Bullshit. It is normally MORE likely for scum to replace out since they can't afford to get lynched, whereas it doesn't matter as much if a townie gets lynched.

I'm the only person in the whole game that hasn't replaced.

Sakako didn't replace, chk didn't replace.
And if you think this is bad look at newbie 1047, every slot (even the mod) got replaced (I was the third replacement in my slot). Anyways, getting replacements ASAP is better than playing with someone who never posts.

Please don't mention Newbie 1047 ever again.
~Nacho

[Glass]

omfg. Did that seriously just happen?

I am going to flip uber-shit once I get done reading this.

[Glass]

Ok, starting from the top:

How do scum know who is cop?

If kage was the cop and doesn't have a report he was roleblocked. Hence they know who cop is, or at least think that kage is likely enough cop that he needs to be blocked.

And if you have, you must have caught his scumbuddy. Plztell us.

... false pretence? HE GENUINELY BELIEVES IT, IT'S IN HIS TOWN GAME(s). Whether he's right or wrong is irrelevant; it's been proven that is what he believes.

lulz. This quote takes your point and smashes it into oblivion.

About 2/3 of the way through yesterday I became convinced that NLing (in THIS setup) is a bad idea and at that point was sticking to my meta. I was inclined to vote Sakako (as I felt most strongly that they were scum) but again, my meta.

Unless you want to try and say kage was lying there...?

Why is nobody posting?!

Some of us have school.

However, if you go through his posts, there is very little initiative taken with regards to scum-hunting.

Yep, completely unlike kage.

The hopp-oto exchange has been rather fruitless.
I still have a townread on oto.

WTFFFFFFFFFFFF BUMP I AM GOING TO SMACK YOU UPSIDE THE HEAD ONCE THIS GAME IS OVER. SILV NEEDS TO BE FUCKING LYNCHED. HE JUST JUMPED FROM THE DBE WAGON ONTO THE OTO WAGON BECAUSE IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SUCCESS. KERMIT THE MAFIAMAN TOTALLY STRAWMANNED MY CASE. STOP THINKING THAT OTO IS SCUM JUST BECAUSE HE IS A VI AND ACTUALLY THINK!

[Glass]

Claim : Vanilla Townie

DONT EVER CLAIM VT IN THIS SETUP. If you are vt you should keep your mouth shut in case you don't get lynched and hope that mafia think you are a PR, now there is no chance of you getting NKd.

[Glass]

@Kermit
WHAT IS YOUR CASE ON OTO? THAT HE IS A VI? I AM SOOOO CONVINCED.

So you got no nice reads on me from it?

Correct.

It's pro-town to not appear scummy when you're not scum, and with the meta having been a huge point for him up to that point, if he were town, consciously going against his town meta and contradicting himself could be seen as anti-town. Whether it's not is irrelevant; there's town motivation for what he did.

Ok, let me paraphrase this because I had to read this many times to understand what you were saying:
"Going against his town-meta would be seen as scummy, so there is town motivation to try and uphold his town meta"
Is that right?
It's shit. Kage thought that sakako was scum, but didn't vote for him because it had a chance to make him look scummier. Going against his town-meta would actually have been pro-town since his town-meta is incredibly anti-town in this setup and it would show us that he cares more about trying to lynch scum than looking town himself. Him consciously sticking to his town-meta means that he was not as interested in catching scum as looking town.

So basically, you're saying they don't. They have a suspicion of cop, they don't know who. They have no way of knowing whether they roleblocked correctly...

If you want to argue over one word, than yes, but from my experience the mafia will roleblock the same person over multiple nights if they think they are a PR. Thus they would not "know" that kage is cop, but we would get the same results regardless.

Way to go taking this quote out of context. You could have taken it slightly out of context more by adding a completely random JFK quote above, but this is still pretty good. B+

Ummm... What context? I don't see how what I posted totally changes what you were saying.

[Glass]

my vote on him is as good as another

Not nearly as good as your vote on sil would be.

[Glass]

o_O;

[Glass]

Yes, please do hammer.

[Glass]

Silavor, Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 2.

WTF, seriously?

I really need to rethink this game, since I have been totally off.
Also, I want a massclaim, popcorn style. I will start.

VT here. Oli is next. Don't claim before oli kthx.

[Glass]

Insights? Everyone claimed VT if you didn't notice.
What makes you so sure that it isnt a hopp-oli scumteam?

[Glass]

Hoppster is most likely scum though because I think oto is town (although I need to look back into it) and bump + oli have been voting together for pretty much the entire game, which would be very odd if they were the scumteam.

[Glass]

On phone at school so I will be quick.
@ hopp
I was convinced he was scum.
@oto
Bad idea.

[Glass]

Glass, where's your Olinea case at? It's fairly important as it's, y'know, LYLO.

I really need to rethink this game since I have been totally off.

@ Glass: ... But you couldn't wait a few days?

Who knows if that opportunity to lynch silavor would still have been there? Much better to lynch scum than to give them a chance to get away, is it not?

I am very amused about how you attacked me for lynching so far before deadline when it was bump who was asking for a hammer for a while and changed his vote to silavor to get the lynch to occur.

I am currently entertaining a hoppster-bump scumteam.

I mean that each one of us have to make an VCA and an ISO on everyone else and then post it in a random manner (because you can't control the position where you will post your analysis) So care to explain why it is a bad idea Glass ?

A couple of reasons why I don't like it. Number 1 is because it means that we are not going to talk about anything over the next few days. Number 2 is because I post ideas as they come to me, I don't write them out post a wall every few days unless it is something that should not be talked about at the time (for ex. kage). And number 3 is that posting our fos's in popcorn method won't "throw scum off guard" or anything like that, it will be the same as talking about our fos's whenever possible.

[Glass]

@Hoppster

Are you going to sit on the fence all day or are you going to say who you think scum is?

[Glass]

wtf oto, where did that come from?

[Glass]

Misrepping in lylo isn't cool.

>implying I was misrepping.

You CLEARLY said "Hey Glass, why in such a rush to lynch silavor yesterday?" when you only mentioned bump's wagon hopping when it was pretty damn obvious that bump only changed his vote back to silavor to lynch. In fact, you are misrepping yourself to make it look like I am the one misrepping.

Sucking as town = Being scum.

O_o;
Did you just say that?

[Glass]

Also, I will be V/LA for the next few days. I may get a few small posts in but don't expect anything incredible.

[Glass]

I don't know if I should consider what bump said to be backpedaling or not since his post was so insane. idk wtf oto is talking about though.

[Glass]

You also haven't answered the question of why you hammered silavor.

Maybe you should reread what oto said?

@OLI
So you pretty much have the game figured out? What is stopping you from voting?

[Glass]

Asking a question = goading?

When did I ever claim to have the game figured out?

I can't see myself voting for Otolia and Glass is, yeah, pretty damn Town.

So what other options are there oli?

[Glass]

I think that what bump is saying is that "sucking at being town" insinuates that he is mafia trying to be town, which is just... no.

[Glass]

...wtf? Those quotes have nothing to do with anything hoppster.

I didn't ask oto because he didn't indicate that he thought that me and oli were town?

[Glass]

No it isn't hoppster. Oto said that he thinks that hopp-bump is the most likely scumteam. That in no way means that he has a town read on me and oli (although I can sort of tell he has a town read on me, oli I am not sure of). And the second quote you posted oto actually said after I questioned oli and I feel that it is oto questioning his reads since it is strange that all 3 of us would have the same scumteam in mind.

[Glass]

@Oli
Who said my scumreads were bump-hopp when I wanted you to claim?

Now a question of my own.
Your reads in oto are rather odd, you did not ICE as I recall (saying that he was not playing to his town meta, etc) and I may have misinterpreted it but you seemed to support the idea that if oto did not have the entire pm that ICE sent him he was scum. So why do you have such a strong town read on him?

[Glass]

really tempted to just vote hoppster to actually get activity.

[Glass]

If your scumreads were Bump-Hopp, you would have selected one of them to go first in the massclaim order.

Indeed. You answered your own question.

[Glass]

Too much info i would need to process for absolutely no benefit. If me saying who I would have killed as scum will actually help in some way I might consider it, but it seems rather pointless to me.

[Glass]

Bump gets town points for this, but he had better fucking unvote. Bump, do you actually believe that the scumteam is Hoppster-oto? That does not make any sense. I can explain later when I am not on my phone, but from how I see it 1 out of bump and oli are scum.

[Glass]

IDK WTF IS GOING ON.
This post is going to be dedicated to my thoughts and probably not going to go anywhere. Let's begin.

I changed my mind about the hoppster-oto scumteam, it is possible.
Bump and oli are almost definitely not the scumteam because of their voting patterns. I also don't think that oto-bump would be the scumteam unless they had fabricated an insanely complex quicklynch on silavor which could have happened many days before anyways. This means that at least one out of hoppster-otolia is scum.
Could both hoppster and oto be scum? Possibly, when hoppster came into the game silavor was pretty much the guaranteed lynch since there was no hammer for the hoppster wagon (I wouldn't have changed to hoppster, I highly doubt oli or bump would have) so he was in the perfect position to distance himself from otolia and he wouldn't be getting lynched. The problem was that in the next couple posts the wagon on oto built to L-1 so hoppster unvoted saying that he wanted to "hear from people", which really is just appealing to town while at the same time giving his partner some slack. Of course, if hoppster is scum and oto is town idk why hoppster would just go and attack oto.

ICE's pm is really just a major town-tell which I can't ignore though.

Why bump's attack on oto gets him some town points is because everyone except for bump himself said that they think bump is scum (same thing with hoppster), so the best move for bump in this position as scum (regardless of his partner) would be to attack hoppster. If they are both scum, then it would be a decent bus, if hopp is town there is a good possibility of a quicklynch. Attacking oto (who nobody has in their top two scum but bump and hoppster) makes me think that bump actually believes that oto is scum.

I am pretty confused right now because I have three thoughts and they conflict.
1. I can't see the interaction between hopp and oto happening if oto is town and hopp is scum, what reason would hoppster have for attacking and going back on his attack if he knows that oto is town?
2.I can't see oto being scum with the ICE pm.
3.I can't see a bump-oli scumteam because of voting patterns.

Clearly 1 of these thoughts is incorrect because 1 and 2 together would mean that bump-oli are the scumteam, which clearly does not work with thought #3.

[Glass]

Meh, I considered voting him myself. I doubt there will be a quickhammer.

[Glass]

And oto, we pretty much sit around until it is clear there will not be a quicklynch. In this case until you and bump are on at the same time and don't quicklynch (I suspect tomorrow morning my time will be that time)

[Glass]

WTF give me 30 mins to get to a computer so I can tell you all that is wrong with that post.

[Glass]

K @ comp

If you doubt there'd be a quickhammer, you think he's scum, right?

So why the lack of a vote?

No, it means that I doubt that oto-bump is the scumteam.

Otolia and Olinea are not the scum-team with Otolia making no vote on me just now.

You think that if oto was scum with oli he would have just jumped onto your wagon? Why would he do that?

With the "WHO WOULD YOU KILL IF YOU WERE SCUM" - it helps. It's difficult for me to explain how, but basically it forces scum to come up with credible explanations for their kills or go for the WIFOM route. Either way, it's difficult for them. Any non-plausible explanations are from scum.

Ok, you realize that scum had probably thought about who they wanted to kill? So they obviously would have reasons for killing multiple people and they could just say any of them and it would probably be satisfactory. How on earth would scum not have any plausible reasons?

[Glass]

Hoppster vote sucks. We're a loooong way from the deadline, and there is no point in just throwing a vote out into the open for no other reason than you can't see yourself moving from him, yet you've posted little actually about him from what I remember.

No, the hoppster vote is good. It really is not THAT far to deadline and I would rather not have a rushed job of voting. What is there to talk to hoppster about? He and his predecessor had done really nothing, I think it is mostly because of PoE.

[Glass]

/steal nacho's spot

@bump
How on earth can you think that the hoppster vote is bad? It is someone who you think is town voting for someone you think is scum. Unless you think the scumteam is me-oto then it is a good vote.

[Glass]

Huh? I want to end the day? I think what you mean is that I want to have it down to two people before the last few days comes by (since the odds of all 3 townies agreeing on a single scum in the time is miniscule).

[Glass]

I am anxious to hear hopp's response.

[Glass]

We don't get 3 weeks, nacho? ):

[Glass]

Town motivation: you realize that no quickhammer is coming and realize that oli is scum.
Scum motivation: You realize that oli won't unvote and have no other option than to vote oli.

[Glass]

@hopp
Q1: yes, it would
Q2: I can't think of any other scum motivation.

[Glass]

Shouldn't have to be said but if we lynch correctly today don't think that the other one is guaranteed town, lylo bussing has an insanely high success rate.

[Glass]

Hopp, are you making a case on oli?

[Glass]

Hey Bump, who's your scumbuddy? Town is going to win anyways so you might as well just say who it is.

[Glass]

(sorry nacho)

@MOD Is that deadline correct?

Today's lynch is me or Hoppster. I've got scum on the end of my reel and I'm not giving it up for a 1/3 shot.

623 was obv joke.

instead of trying to spread suspicion onto both Hoppster and myself by claiming LyLo bussing has a high success rate, and also MrBump, how 'bout you start taking a stance on this?

By "this" I assume you are talking about who I think is scum between you and hoppster. Is it not obvious that I think hoppster is the scum? Not quite ready to vote yet and I want to see if hoppster is actually going to produce a case and who oto/bump think is scum.

[Glass]

Unvote bro

[Glass]

Oto should also unvote.

[Glass]

First off, regarding this, I don't see how everybody thinks that somebody voting for you at lylo with no auto-quickhammer is guaranteed scum. Really, I don't. (Of course, it doesn't mean that people voting early are auto-town, but it's certainly not auto-scum by any means.)

By the same logic of scum always quickhammer, if scum notice town voting town, all an intelligent scum needs to do is go "LOOK I'M NOT VOTING, NOBODY ELSE IS VOTING, SO ONE OF THOSE TWO IS SCUM": a safer and (from what everybody is saying, it would appear to be an) equally effective alternative.

Either way we would lose so we really have to assume that this is either scum-town or scum-scum.

His response to my questions felt like scum setting up two mislynch candidates to me, and goading the two people into attacking each other (a 'win-win' scenario for scum, obv).

o_O w...t...f...

He seems fairly convinced I'm scum, yet is waiting for me to produce a case, when by his logic Olinea is auto-scum anyway, so it would just be confirmation bias in all likelihood.

Yes, in your view oli is auto-scum, that does not mean you sit around saying: "Well, I hope people will vote oli" CONVINCE ME. Having a case+rebuttal discussion is really useful to me when I know that one of the people is scum.
>implying i care if it is confirmation bias
I expect it to be confirmation bias because from your point of view oli IS SCUM.

And there's the NK WIFOM - although I haven't had it myself, a lot of people seem to think Glass is super-obv-town. I personally don't, but that aside, why is he still alive?

I have asked myself the same question.

[Glass]

a few things:
1. If you are town and self-hammer in lylo you are probably going to be on everyone's blacklist here (mine for sure)
2. Hopp, who do you think is the scumteam? Do you think oto is jumping on with his partner or do you think is bump going to come on and hammer you?

[Glass]

hey cool, bump didn't hammer.

@Bump
We have 9 days. Don't just hammer hoppster, things just got more complicated.

Here are the possible scumteams (fmpov obv):
Oli-Oto
Hopp-Oto
Oli-Hopp
Hopp-Bump

[Glass]

Unvoting now is pointless (I know you are trying to lynch oto, bump. Just stop it >_>)

[Glass]

If I had to hammer? Assuming that you went and voted oli for some reason I would vote Hoppster, but as soon as I did I would regret it.
The reason for the vote would mostly be that if hoppster is town, the scumteam has to be oto-oli and that would mean that ice was distancing like crazy for the week he was here (granted his attacks weren't THAT great, so he could have been faking it) and the pm he sent oto gives oto lots of town brownies.

[Glass]

Just checked through hoppster's other games to see if he was ever scum/town at lylo before. He was.

Newbie 1074: Hoppster (scum) late-claimed cop and somehow won. What caught my eye in this game is this though:

Fffffffffu.

UNVOTE GODDAMNIT

GIVE ME 1 HOUR

Sound familiar? Of course, it was a no-pr game like this one so him not claiming a PR is different (for example, he easily could have claimed cop with inno on oli day 1 and guilty on some random person today).

Newbie 1058: Hoppster (scum) Quickhammered a day into lylo. Nothing to say here

Newbie 1030 (yes it is old, but it is the only one I can find where he was town at lylo): First thing i noticed is that hoppster did 100000x more smileys in this game than the other two. He posted a ton more but that was probably due to the fact that everyone else was posting a ton more to respond to.

If hoppster has any other games where he was at lylo then posting them would be cool.

[Glass]

My god, I have never flip-flopped so much at lylo of who I think is scum.

[Glass]

Sigh, locked out of house and posting is insanely irritating from phone. I'll be on later.

[Glass]

SUCCESS!

Ok, now onto mafia stuff.

FIRST OFF:
Dammit, I had a plan that if bump had voted oto right after hoppster did and oli didn't hammer then the scum was definitely oto because I couldn't see scum-bump voting oto so quickly (I expressed my view that I was leaning towards hopp-scum and bump voting for oto would give a definite link between him and hoppster. So if hopp did flip scum he would be kind of screwed.). Ah well, too late now.

Meh, I highly doubt that it is a hoppster-oli scumteam right now just because this would be an extremely intricate plan to quickhammer when hopp could have voted oto from the start and

possibly

probably have gotten bump to follow with the vote.

I have been thinking about this for a bit and I think that it needs to be cleared up (Can't believe I am going back to this).

Did anyone else notice the incongruity of oto's two PM's from ICE? I mean, there is nothing MAJOR but there are a few subtle differences.
(PS: Am I the only one seeing only one page when I go through ISO's?)

PM #1

Common Man

:

Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.

An attempt to buy non-mafia credit. Aka, show yourself to be town. That seems like a fairly fat finger of suspicion. When called on it:

1) Offers to join the prevailing wagon

Is that so?

~Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.

That was a good one, I needed a laugh.

Deflection. That was a fairly clear feeler to see if the common man lynch was still alive, and when called, he just deflects. In fact, Olinea has never given a strong position about Common man at all.

None? He's never even commented on the feelers. Hell, I've seen CM variants in enough of my newbie games (peg leg, KodamaKon, Shadow1psc, etc.) to know exactly how this has gone. But outside of that one comment and the deflection, Olinea has never pushed towards common man... or questioned anyone's push... or done anything.

That wagon is a town wagon pushed by town, because Common Man's play is so anti-town it hurts. He's still town though.

The feeler? Meh. Bad. The deflection? Worrying.

~Kagetora is playing to a town meta, IMO. Never seen him as scum, but if he were scum I think he'd be

much

more inclined to appeal to the general view of "no lynching is bad" in order to avoid confrontation. He sticks to his guns, which is good.

That's literally the only town read he has.

PM #2:

Well, dun think I can, but here's the logic:


Alright, last post on why I'm really no fan of Olinea this game.

1) Commentary:

I was half honest when I said it was scum to comment on your predecessor. That comes from scum a middling amount of the time. Finding them scummy, on the other hand, is scum 95% of the time. Olinea fell into a gentle middle ground. That hasn't made me happy - doesn't, won't, never will. That being said, I poked Olinea's completes, and its a lot less than I initially expected. So it could just be a newbie tell.

2) Common Man:

~Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.

An attempt to buy non-mafia credit. Aka, show yourself to be town. That seems like a fairly fat finger of suspicion. When called on it:

1) Offers to join the prevailing wagon

Is that so?

~Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.

That was a good one, I needed a laugh.

Deflection. That was a fairly clear feeler to see if the common man lynch was still alive, and when called, he just deflects. In fact, Olinea has never given a strong position about Common man at all.

None? He's never even commented on the feelers. Hell, I've seen CM variants in enough of my newbie games (peg leg, KodamaKon, Shadow1psc, etc.) to know exactly how this has gone. But outside of that one comment and the deflection, Olinea has never pushed towards common man... or questioned anyone's push... or done anything.

That wagon is a town wagon pushed by town, because Common Man's play is so anti-town it hurts. He's still town though.

The feeler? Meh. Bad. The deflection? Worrying.

~Kagetora is playing to a town meta, IMO. Never seen him as scum, but if he were scum I think he'd be

much

more inclined to appeal to the general view of "no lynching is bad" in order to avoid confrontation. He sticks to his guns, which is good.

That's literally the only town read he has.


At the moment here are his reads:

1) Common Man - "attempting to buy non-mafia cred," lol deflect when questioned on it
2) Kagetora - "townish for pushing his silly idea."
3) GreyICE/Otolia - scum, for thinking I'm scummy!


Chkflip is fairly bad. Still, I have a bad experience with finding ICs scummy (I like... always do). But he's scummier than most. The way he waited for me to leave to push you... I'm a time bomb. You're a relative unknown. Although just as dangerous IMHO (ya need to work on your scum game though)
Bump is town
Sakako is ... meh town ... meh scum ...
Kage is town, if nothing else because his scum partner would be kicking him in thread about that opinion
DBE is badtown
CM is prob-town

My town reads blow chunks this game.

Since you're me, I see no problems in sending this. Post from it as you will

Those are exactly what oto posted.

So the differences I saw were:
1. The spaces in between the quotes are rather strange (some people have a large space in between quotes and comments, others not). If you look through ICE's ISO in this game and others you will notice that he switches between the small spaces and large spaces, but tends to stick to small spaces mostly. But besides that, why are all the quotes in the first PM small spaces and all the ones in the second PM large spaces?

Nothing too incriminating yet, but still odd.

2. The first quote by Oli has him as the speaker in the first PM, but not the second. Can't say much here since I can see oto putting in someone's name if greyICE didn't (PM #2 is said to be the original, #1 the edited).
So ya, not incriminating.

3. Commonman is underlined in the first PM, but not the second. Now, this one does not make sense. I can't see oto going through the trouble of inserting underline tags for no reason.

1) Commentary:

I was half honest when I said it was scum to comment on your predecessor. That comes from scum a middling amount of the time. Finding them scummy, on the other hand, is scum 95% of the time. Olinea fell into a gentle middle ground. That hasn't made me happy - doesn't, won't, never will. That being said, I poked Olinea's completes, and its a lot less than I initially expected. So it could just be a newbie tell.

This also does not really correlate with the rest of post, why is ICE saying that it could just be a newbie tell and then go on to solely attack him?

Well, dun think I can, but here's the logic:

What is ice responding to here?

If you got through this congrats. This has been going through my head for about the last day or so and I want to see what people think/get some questions answered.

[Glass]

something’s unsettling me about Glass today.

Ya, I am playing differently today than other days, but I can tell you that if I were scum with hoppster (which is really the only option from anyone's view) I would have hammered him a while back, killed oli, and then get the auto-win (can you see bump and oto teaming up after I hammered scum? lolololol). You can look at my scum-meta if you want, but I assure you that all my scum games I have bussed/tried to bus.

[Glass]

WTF oto, when I ask a question you don't just go: "lol fail VT, grow some balls." and it really doesn't help when you think that I am possible scum.
At least answer the last question in my previous message.

[Glass]

Bump: thoughts on an oli-hopp team?

[Glass]

Clear bitches. Waiting for oli.

[Glass]

Oto, I am clear. If I were scum I would have hammered the townie. In what scenario could I possibly be scum?

[Glass]

semi-related:
Bump, you were also watching newbie 1077 while it was going on (I was too, I just didn't comment at the end of it) and you posted this:

That being said, I would have hammered Akira in Memento's position. Anyway, that was the most intense game I've ever seen!

Why did you think that akira was scum? (If you don't remember then just say so)
(trust me this is related)

I will post more later when I go look through more meta.

[Glass]

@Oto
This question:

Well, dun think I can, but here's the logic:

What is ice responding to here?

@Hopp
Why can't you rant now?

[Glass]

WELCOME TO NEWBIE 1076, where everyone but Glass knows who scum is and instead of making any cases we all just call each other idiots and hope that Glass hammers correctly!

[Glass]

Lots of things hopp.
Question: Why did you vote me when you were L-1? I can't find the exact spot atm, but I can go look back.

[Glass]

Oli, who do you think is scum? Hopp-bump or Hopp-oli?

[Glass]

lol. I meant hopp-oto obviously

[Glass]

Tonight I shall dine in hell!
Goodluck tomorrow town.
VOTE: Hoppster

[Glass]

Mafia should kill oto so that we can have an awesome three-way.

[Glass]

Didn't mean that in the way you may have taken it >_>

[Glass]

btw, 95% sure oto is town. Not sure who is scum between bump and oli.

[Glass]

Oh, and in the event that bump is town don't fall for oli saying that he picked hopp next in the massclaim order since if the scumteam is oli-hopp it means that they knew that it was a no PR setup and probably agreed to not claim PRs.

[Glass]

-prods nacho-

[Glass]

BAH POST!

GL TOWN, DONT FAIL ME NOW

[Glass]

OMFG I KNEW OLI WAS SCUM, DAMMIT! (sent a pm to nacho for post-game evidence a couple days ago )

What you guys should have looked at is where hoppster voted me after being put at L-1, it was clear he was trying to get me push me into quickhammering him so that the animosity between bump and oto remained when they were in the final 3. There was hopp-bump reason for hoppster to do that.

[Glass]

oh, it was a fake qt.
I will wait for nacho before bitching more, lol.

[Glass]

well in that case......
PARTY TIME!
(should have killed oto, bump)

[Glass]

Claiming Cop without a Doc claim is suicide, so I'll probably just wait until someone claims Cop then go "AHA! I HAVE A BREADCRUMB SINCE D1!" or sommin'.

You have a breadcrumb bump?

[Glass]

Well... I would rate my play this game decent (I did do a couple crappy moves like lynching kage and sakako but hammered correctly in lylo and looked town throughout)

[Glass]

I highly advise against lurking obviously.

[Glass]

Is it just me or are scum breadcrumbing a lot more than town now? In all the games I have watched/played with breadcrumbing it is scum trying to make a believable fake-claim early in the game.

[Glass]

>Didn't read thread