Newbie 1079: Feed the Lynch Mob (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.02

Nachomamma8 (2) - Traveller, Herodotus
thil13 (2) - GreyICE, tarsonisocelot
tarsonisocelot (1) - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (2) - pandabear, thil13

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

The deadline is Sunday, May 1, 2011, at 11:59 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[thil13]

I'm sorry guys, I just haven't been in the mood for mafia as of late.

thil13: What are you reads on people now? Yesterday you claimed to be null on everyone, has that changed? If so why and if not why not?

I'm not really sure, though all I've done so far is skim the thread. I'll get back to you on that. I am also a He, so now you can stop referring to me as "them" It's kind of weird...

Thil13: I'm not sure whether you're town or scum, but you've been playing in a way that doesn't get you involved in the game. When townies play that way, the town is sure to lose.

Again, I'm sorry.

thil13:
In ISO #15, you talk about being uncertain of who's scum, but still wanting the day to end. Why was it time to end the day if there was more to be learned?

Do you have a top suspect now?

I don't think there was much to be learned while everyone was focusing on just the two wagons, but I feel that if there was a lynch, we could focus on the votes that led to the lynch and maybe glean something from that.

@Thil13: Is there anything you want to do with your vote? Anything you find scummy? Any candidates for lynch? Anyone you find town?

I'm still not quite comfortable with a vote out. I've seen lazy votes go to something that doesn't help at all, and I want to be completely sure what I'm doing when I do lay down my vote.


I'll try to be more active, but I can't make many promises, RL comes first.

[thil13]

In fact...

I'd like to go V/LA until Monday, I have a lot going on this weekend and I won't have much time for Mafia

Noted. (Equinox)

[Nachomamma8]

That's exactly what I've been doing since post 232. Not sure what you're trying to say here. You accused me of trying to quicklynch you without leaving you a chance to defend yourself because of the timing of my case. I pointed out there were four days. Regardless of what came up, it doesn't make my timing scummy retroactively, even if it's something that would be a good reason why you couldn't post.

If someone's being taken out of the game for three days takes away all the discussing time for a brand new case, then you're not allowing anywhere near enough time.

Besides, I have seen scum quicklynched while they were V/LA close to a Day 1 deadline, and that one lynch almost destroyed the mafia in that game. So I don't mind speedy wagoning; it can inject life into a game.

For every day 1 scum quicklynch, there's about 5 town ones. I do see the merit of speedy wagoning, and sometimes of speedy lynching. But Day 1 is not a place for the latter.

Traveller talked about his reasons for voting you. I don't agree with his reasons, but I'm not going to suspect him of being scum supporting a mislynch by voting you when I have very little reason to think you're town.

Your opinion on me at that point had nothing to do with it.

On a related note, I looked back and don't see you questioning any of the others who voted for Sn1pe after you did.

Nope. That's because I had an uncompromising town read on them, or they provided adequate cases.

[Traveller]

@Traveller: how are townies supposed to root out the scum, if not by aggressive questioning?

Good point, but just because you are (or look like) you're trying to root out the scum, doesn't mean you aren't scum yourself. I do like the fact that board activity has picked up a bit as the vets start to dig deeper. BTW, hope your hand is doing better!

No lynch is mathematically a poor option from a game theory standpoint. It costs you a lynch, as the scum ration is 7:2 at the start. Since one mislynch costs you two town (one lynched, one NKed), it goes 7:2, 5:2, 3:2. Therefore, unless Hero was 100% certain sn1pe was town beyond the smallest shadow of doubt (which he could only be if he was scum) he should hammer, because otherwise it costs us a lynch for no information gained.
Many veterans will deadline hammer for that reason.

Thanks for clarification. That affects my thinking about Hero.

Yes, I'm corked at the moment, somewhat because my top suspect is handicapped for the day, but mostly because I'm waiting for something.

Intriguing. Just what are you waiting for, Nacho? Hmmmm?

My latest reads, from scummiest to towniest:

-

Nachomamma8

: still at top until I see something town from him or scummy from someone else.
-

Herodotus

: Still my second suspect, but I'm less certain than before, since GreyICE gave the sensible answer to the "last hour lynch vote" post by Hero.
-

thil13

creeps up a bit. Suspicion of him is growing due to his lurking. Yes, thil, I know stuff happens - I just helped bury my mother's husband this past weekend - but just because you've got a lot going on doesn't mean you're not scum. Hope whatever preoccupies you is temporary and has a positive outcome.
-

tarsonisoscelot

: could still be scum. But I don't have a definite town read on her.
-

pandabear

: Lurking a bit too much, but still nothing I have read suggests scum.
-

GREYIce

: See? I don't think ALL veteran players are scum just because of their experience. I'm getting a town vibe, but he could have me bamboozled.

[pandabear]

Eh, while I don't have any better ideas of my own might as weel put some pressure on thil13.
VOTE: thil13
I'm null on them at present and would like some more activity.

okay after reviewing my FOS I think this^ post is scummy. Plus, tars never followed it up with anything that seemed towny, the whole unrelated post about mafia roles and weak followup reasoning to try and justify the thil13 vote (note: the reasoning came AFTER the vote) just didnt seem right.

vote: tarsonisoscelot

[tarsonisocelot]

Eh, while I don't have any better ideas of my own might as weel put some pressure on thil13.
VOTE: thil13
I'm null on them at present and would like some more activity.

okay after reviewing my FOS I think this^ post is scummy. Plus, tars never followed it up with anything that seemed towny, the whole unrelated post about mafia roles and weak followup reasoning to try and justify the thil13 vote (note: the reasoning came AFTER the vote) just didnt seem right.

vote: tarsonisoscelot

Post#220:

thil13: What are you reads on people now? Yesterday you claimed to be null on everyone, has that changed? If so why and if not why not?

My vote came on Post #228, when I had not yet had my questions answered. That was my reasoning at the time.
It's fairly obvious by now that I could have had better execution, but as I'm learning this is to be expected.

You don't explain why that post is scummy. Please do so.

[tarsonisocelot]

LA until Monday evening/Tuesday morning

Travelling this weekend.

Noted. (Equinox)

[GreyICE]

*sigh*

No matter how many times I reread the game, I just don't see the case on Nacho. At all. Maybe I'm blind, but as far as I can tell he was:

- Pushing newbies rather hard to determine alignment
- Starting wagons
- Had a long absence sitewide

I just don't see this as scummy.

thil13 is a weak scumread.
Tars is a townread
Herod still reads townish.
Panda is a townread
Traveler is a VERY STRONG townread.

I need to go through and figure out what I'm fucking up.

Anyone have any idea why Bristep/Jora is dead? Beyond the fact that both were obvtown?

[Herodotus]

Anyone have any idea why Bristep/Jora is dead? Beyond the fact that both were obvtown?

6 things to consider for NK's:
1. scum think the person was a PR
2. scum think the person was unlikely to be protected by a doctor
3. scum think the person can't be lynched
4. the person had good reads on other players
5. the person was likely to develop good reads/play well in the future
6. the scum expected the person's death would mislead other townies

It's almost always a combination of some of the above. I'm partial to #4 in this case, but #1 is almost always a consideration and often the biggest consideration. If it's #6, then Nacho8 would probably be town and Tarson would probably be scum.

[Herodotus]

- Pushing newbies rather hard to determine alignment
- Starting wagons
- Had a long absence sitewide

I just don't see this as scummy.

I agree that what you listed there isn't scummy, in fact I think the first made him look town for the first half of D1, and the second and third were more or less null. But I don't see those 3 things as the whole story. I'm not up for restating the case I've made or trying to explore my gut to expand the case right now... but I think you'll find a lot of thoughts in my ISO about why I suspect he's scum. And also consider that there is pretty much always at least 1 mafia on every mislynch.

[Herodotus]

Placing emphasis by way of posting on the phrase "at least".

[Herodotus]

For some reason I am not that convinced Thil13 is scum...especially because I messed up with my lurk read on Sn1pe D1 and because if he does happen to be scum, I think it'd be better if we try and take out his partner and see if we can find connections.

I don't understand; are you saying that if Thil13 is scum, you'd prefer to lynch his partner before him? If so, why?

So now, I want to limit my FOS to Hero, Nacho, tar and possibly ICE. @ICE, I know you have a townread on me, but that alone is not a townread for you in my point of view.

Could you give a reason for each, and maybe an order? Also, does this mean you think Traveller and Thil are probably both town?

[GreyICE]

- Pushing newbies rather hard to determine alignment
- Starting wagons
- Had a long absence sitewide

I just don't see this as scummy.

I agree that what you listed there isn't scummy, in fact I think the first made him look town for the first half of D1, and the second and third were more or less null. But I don't see those 3 things as the whole story. I'm not up for restating the case I've made or trying to explore my gut to expand the case right now... but I think you'll find a lot of thoughts in my ISO about why I suspect he's scum. And also consider that there is pretty much always at least 1 mafia on every mislynch.

Uh... no.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2814409

I actually was about to bring up this, but I replaced into that game, and used a very similar argument to that in LyLo.

Shadow1psc (5): Lighthouse, Ythan, Tuncali, startransmission, Shadow1psc
Ythan (2): Krazy,

Jackofhearts2005

Nonvoters:

Nobody Special

, Deckard182

Slot I was in? Jack of Hearts. I was the scum goon.

Two town wagons just lacks an overwhelming motivation for town to jump on. Sure, there was the selfhammer, but Deckard or Krazy would have moved to shadow eventually even without scum prompting - and if they didn't, Ythan was the obvious 'other wagon' to move to.

It's a good starting place, but I don't see it as more than that when both wagons are town. If one was scum, well, then it would be interesting. And nearly that argument caused the day 2 lynch on Ythan (plus he was pushing Shadow very hard).

And... Nobody Special and me swept the town in LyLo.

Sorry, just don't buy it. Sure, each game is its own snowflake, I don't love meta, but insisting there's ALWAYS scum on a town lynch wagon is silly.

Now if it's scum-town, I'd agree, but we don't have the mislynches to flip people based on guesses on their alignment, or for information

[Herodotus]

I said pretty much always. I could name an exception too, but exceptions are by definition less common.
I'm trying to decide whether to put any faith in your town read on Nacho8. He's not playing like I would expect him to if he was town.
You rated everyone else in post 258; how does your read on Nacho8 compare?

[GreyICE]

I actually devoted most of 258 to Nacho.

Could Nacho snow me as scum? I'm inclined to say he could. Could you snow me as scum? Probably. King of Harolds was not my strongest town read (or a very strong one) and this tunnel on nacho is giving me the creeps. If I'm honest about your NK options above, #6 looks a lot stronger than #4. Were I scum shooting someone out of the thread to cause a mislynch, the second most vocal attacker, who also happens to be a newer player and much worse at making cases would be a good choice.

Of course then we get back into the entire Night kill WIFOM, and ignore the obvious option that someone thought they saw a power role tell, but...

Hero, how does this differ from what you'd expect from his town play? What's the exact change? I'm usually not overwhelmed by meta cases, so what's he doing here that's just not town?

[Herodotus]

It's not a meta based case. Though there may be some meta factored into the portion that I'm considering gut-based.
I know you devoted most of 258 to Nacho, but at the end I couldn't tell how your read on him compared to your other reads. I don't expect to convince you to vote him as much as I am trying to figure out what I should make of your defense of him.

@Traveller: what do you think about posts 203-205?
@Tarson: what do you think of Traveller, and each of his reads? The fact that all you did in post 256 is defend yourself doesn't impress.
@Thil13: In 251, you apologized for not participating, then you continued, in that post, to not participate.
If you can say what's causing this -- what the reason is why you aren't naming suspects, stating reasons for those suspicions, naming people you think are town, saying what cases you agree or disagree with -- that might help on its own.

[GreyICE]

I read him as town. Weaker than Panda or Traveler, stronger than tars, you, or Thil.

The only caveat I'd add to that, and the only reason I'd question it is that he's a better player than me. So I don't know if he could blitz me.

Then again, the last game I was in he was obvscum except for the whole flipping town thing, so... (damn meta)

[Traveller]

@Traveller: what do you think about posts 203-205?

Hmmm. Looked right past that one. At that point, the vote was 4 to lynch Sn1pe, 3 to lynch Nacho. You cast the deciding vote shortly thereafter. I see where you're going with this, but I have a couple of additional observations:

We've only got a couple of hours and we really should lynch someone. Will one of the nacho people please vote snipe?

From post #203, tarsonisoscelot (TO, from now on as she wishes) did seem to be in a hurry to lynch Sn1pe. Did she just want to get it over with, or was she trying to protect her partner in scum, Nacho?

Competing wagons day 1! I am a happy, happy man.

From post #202, Grey seemed happy that there was confusion about who to lynch. Why? I would think scum would be pleased that there is no definitive evidence as to who they are. Supposing Grey were scum, he might be pleased not only to see a split lynch vote, but even more pleased if neither accused were scum. We already know that Sn1pe was town, perhaps Nacho is also. This would also fit the quote from TO above, whether or not she is scum (she would just want to get it over with).

Neither quote gets you off the hook, Hero. You could still be scum, but I'm a bit green on how to read vets like you. So now my list looks like this:

-

Nachomamma8

: I don't want to bounce all over with my vote, but I'm keeping a much more wary eye on TO and Grey now. You may soon be off my hook, Nacho.
-

tarsonisoscelot

: based on above analysis.
-

GreyICE

: Just too cool for words, Mr Grey. But you may have slipped up just a bit.
-

Herodotus

: Still a suspect. Your predecessor King of Herolds is partly to blame and you were quite willing to cast the lynch vote (with a righteous justification that you may be hiding behind).
-

thil13

: difficult to call him scum without any provocation.
-

pandabear

: Still nothing I have read suggests scum. If you are, Panda, you got me totally fooled.

Glad you're asking my opinion now, Hero. Since you all have such a strong town read on me, I am probably heading for a NK in Night 2. That is, unless

I'm

scum.

[Equinox]

Nachomamma8 and thil13 have been prodded. thil13 is on V/LA, so he has a bit longer to respond to the prod.

[Nachomamma8]

Responding to prod, I'll post tomorrow.

[GreyICE]

Competing wagons day 1! I am a happy, happy man.

From post #202, Grey seemed happy that there was confusion about who to lynch. Why? I would think scum would be pleased that there is no definitive evidence as to who they are. Supposing Grey were scum, he might be pleased not only to see a split lynch vote, but even more pleased if neither accused were scum. We already know that Sn1pe was town, perhaps Nacho is also. This would also fit the quote from TO above, whether or not she is scum (she would just want to get it over with).

Competing wagons on day 1, especially multiple, are a good indication people care about the lynch. When there's one wagon, town or scum, it usually means the rest of the days are rather lackluster. If it's a one-shot town wagon with no strong competition, the scum usually didn't have to push it hard, and the town usually didn't oppose it hard, meaning that it's hard to get any good reads.

Competing wagons means people have someone they rather lynch. Maybe scum pushing a town wagon. Maybe scum distancing because the town wagon was happening no matter what they did. Who knows?

The fact is that if day 1 has one, uncontested wagon that goes to lynch near deadline, it is almost certainly a town loss unless the town gets lucky with power roles.

[tarsonisocelot]

@Tarson: what do you think of Traveller, and each of his reads? The fact that all you did in post 256 is defend yourself doesn't impress.
@Thil13: In 251, you apologized for not participating, then you continued, in that post, to not participate.
If you can say what's causing this -- what the reason is why you aren't naming suspects, stating reasons for those suspicions, naming people you think are town, saying what cases you agree or disagree with -- that might help on its own.

I've been thinking he's town for quite a while but his jokes worry me a bit. They make him appear too cool about being associated with mafia to be anything but vanilla town and I dislike things like that. Re-reading I'm not sure that he is town. His case on KoH was basically non-existent, and he has said a few things that do not make sense for town.
Post #126 and #132 directly contradict each other on how town should be played.
In full:

Time to re-review past posts and re-evaluate my vote. One thing I don't want to do is put someone at L-1 or cast the lynching vote unless I'm as sure as I can be (given the circumstances). Will need a good reason to switch and all I have seen so far is conjecture. Guess that all we can do - take our best guess. My vote remains with KoH for the time being. However, if I get a bad feeling about someone, I'll change my vote regardless of the circumstances, even if that means I have to be the hangman.

Seems the ideal position for a player is to have some suspicion cast their way (so the Mafaosi won't knock them off that night but keep them as cover), yet not so much as to get lynched. Sn1pe, panda and I are all walking that tightrope, I have cast some suspicion on KoH, and the rest are all "Mafia meat".

Even if you do get a bad feeling about someone could you not hammer them until close to the deadline? You should be able to use the extra time to re-evaluate or strengthen your case.

Also, that's only the ideal place to be if your goal is to personally survive - it should be to make sure that your side wins.

Quite right, taronisoscelot. This is not "Survivor".

His "gut instinct" seems to regard experience as inherently suspicious.

I don't trust his reads. I would want to see more detailed justification rather than a few little bits then a list.


Thil13 keeps my vote for now.

[Herodotus]

Traveller, don't forget post 205 was part of the selection I pointed out.

[Equinox]

pandabear has been prodded.