A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Eddard Stark]

THE I DIDN'T NEED TO PULL AN EQUINOX AND BUMP MY VOTE COUNT VOTE COUNT

Magua (2) - Danakillsu, Benmage

Locke Lamora (3) Zdenek, Magua, Twilight Sparkle

Danakillsu (1) LynchMePls
LynchMePls (1) Shadow1psc
Twilight Sparkle (2) Locke Lamora, Popsofctown

Not voting (1) hasdgfas

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Don't drink and post. You may embarass yourself.
*Deadline here

[LimMePls]

10 alive. Hope it's 8:1:1, because if it's not, then Benmage has simply fucked us all over and lost. But I think it's 8:1:1, so maybe it's ok.

Lynch me, 7:1:1. Two nightkills, worst case, 5:1:1. One nightkill isn't really any better for us, because it doesn't give us an extra mislynch.

Lynch Zdenek, who is going to be scum. 5:1. One night-kill. 4:1.

This gives you one mislynch.

Lynch Twilight Sparkle, because they fit into either category.

If that's a mislynch, it's now 2:1. Unless I miss my guess, final day in that case would be LynchMePls, danakillsu, and Locke Lamora. Think dana is clear. LL can't be Stark. LMP can't be SK. So that should make it easy.

The only difference to this plan would be switching me and Twilight, which Benmage isn't going to do, and, since even best case TS turns out to be SK, one nightkill tonight doesn't give us an extra mislynch *anyways*, is simply not worth it for me to argue about.

I like this plan, but I'm not actually sure I agree that LL is better lynch over dana in that LYLO.

[Benmage]

LMP, shadow and cow....vote somewhere it matters.

[hasdgfas]

*looks at vote count*

*hesitates*

vote: TS

[popsofctown]

hascow, does everyone look town to you, or is there some unpopular cantidate who looks better to you?

[Benmage]

Cow, point to your lynch order going from first to last.

[hasdgfas]

*points at zdenek*
*hesitates*
*points at twilight sparkle*
*points at magua*
*points at lynchmepls*
*points at danakillsu*
*points at locke lamora*
*points at shadow1psc*

[popsofctown]

cow. Answer my question

[Eddard Stark]

Emilia Clarke's ass has inspired me to prod. Twilight Sparkle, Magua, Zdenek, Dana and Shadow have been prodded.

Locke Lamora is V/la

[Magua]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

[Shadow1psc]

Answering prod, more detail when I get to work though.

[Shadow1psc]

LMP, shadow and cow....vote somewhere it matters.

'somewhere it matters' is a matter of opinion

But in all seriousness, are ready to just throw the hammer down? Zdenek would have been the lynch everyone agreed on, and now we have this stagnation because of your hasty govern. I'm not going to mince words, it was foolish. But now, that is neither here nor there. Magua is not Stark. 'CPR doc' bothers me in a game with lots of vigs and a revealed doc. I've been indifferent about TS all game. I don't like the lynch, but I'd support it since we need a direction. I'm not convinced Magua is the SK, but anything is possible. Between Magua and TS, if either of them are not Lannister, I'll be surprised.

UNVOTE:

[Twilight Sparkle]

Sorry, this head has been distracted lately, and to be honest, I needed some time to cool down before posting in the thread again. hito and I have been discussing things on Skype, but we're kind of running around in circles.

Please, no one hammer any player soon. I have questions and comments about Magua, Locke Lamora, and LynchMePls (and am looking for scum meta from those players), but since I have to leave now, I'd rather get this out of the way first.

An open letter to the serial killer

Dear heartless psychopathic bastard,

So it was really sweet of you to take out MoI (and possibly diddin) for us. Kudos on your astute scumhunting skills (and/or lucky shots). But then you backstabbed us, and decided to shoot for confirmed townies instead.

But well done. Pat yourself on the back for being a thorn in the side of two factions. Now you should be careful not to paint yourself into a corner.

Let's look at a few recent theme games. SAIII: seven scum out of twenty-eight players, as well as the option for multiple players to become serial killers. MoCo, ignoring the seraphs: 5/21 + an SK. ACoK (which even Faraday has admitted was town-sided), a whopping nine scum overall (albeit from multiple factions) out of twenty-six players: more than a third of the game.

The meta on this site for single faction games is for 25% of the players to be Mafia, as well as an occasional SK or third-party. And this game has too many confirmed townies. Magua was the first person to even propose the "five Starks" theory, and his entire logic for it was "too many people look town."

That means there are probably two scum left alive.

Now, let's look at the math. Assume we mislynch today (becoming increasingly more likely). 2 scum, 1 SK, 6 town. Assume two confirmed town die tonight. 2 scum, 1 SK, 4 town.

Either: 1) We lynch Zdenek.

He flips Stark. Two townies die. That leaves one Stark, one SK, and two town alive the next day. It's Prisoner's dilemma, and town decides which scumteam wins. Obviously, this option is extremely risky, but read ahead to see what would happen even if we gambled on one scum and did. Instead, we're forced to try to hit the serial killer.

2) We aim for the SK, and lynch you.

Game over for you.

3) We aim for the SK, and hit a townie.

Two more townies die. We are now in a situation in which you're with two scum who can force night on you and endgame.

So firstly, if there's a mislynch today, it's in your interest to take out at least one scum. I'd have suggested taking out Zdenek, but I'd forgotten he was modified bulletproof. Furthermore, I don't think you'd be nice enough to take out such an inevitable lynch for us.

But a decent compromise shot would be someone in the Stark pool, but not in the SK pool, like LMP. After LMP's death (regardless of his flip), you could say, "See? There's only one Stark left (either because Zdenek was LMP's buddy or because there aren't enough survivors to fit the bill). Let's lynch Zdenek." That's another day for you to hide.

I suppose that if you'd rather shoot someone you think is more likely to flip Stark and therefore push us to lynch Zdenek instead, that's your choice. Or hey, if you feel like being a douchebag and shooting me in the face for trying to tell you what to do, I wouldn't take it personally. Honest.

Now, maybe you're smart and noticed I left something out.

"Mina, you forgot about my super-nifty NK immunity. If I'm left with two scum and just one townie, we go to night, and then I take out one of the Starks! Sure, the scum would just no-kill and force Prisoner's Dilemma, but I'm sure I'd win that."

...Dammit. You've got me. You lose if you're in a final three with two Starks, but you can easily make it to Prisoner's Dilemma.

There's just one problem.

Who do you think is going to vote for you to win in endgame?

If you do not get rid of scum tonight and the day after, then you are forced into a Prisoner's Dilemma situation at best. There is no way around it on D8, with one or two surviving townies.

That surviving townie has the power to vote no-lynch and let things take their natural course, or to help lynch you and give the victory to the Starks.

So here's my offer. If you fuck us over, we lose the ability to win. But we can still take the victory from beyond your grasp.

Call this elementary game theory. Sometimes, the best route to a goal isn't the shortest one. It's to make an agreement--an alliance--and plan toward a further endgame. There is precedence for players keeping to a bargain and making choices that seem suboptimal in the short term, either out of honour or out of thinking long-term--in

A Clash of Kings

, in

Mafia of the Chosen Ones

, etc.

So in conclusion, I want everyone in this town to agree to this.

If the serial killer kills someone other than LMP/danakillsu/Twilight Sparkle/Magua/Locke tonight (I won't even fuss over which one, so he can feel free to make whatever strategic choice he prefers), we let the Starks win in endgame.

(Obviously, town isn't held to this bargain if Twilight Sparkle is Stark or SK, because that would be a cheap ploy, but we're town, anyway.)

It is in your best short-term interest to take out a scum, anyway. But furthermore, we outnumber you, and you cannot win a prisoner's dilemma situation without the support of the last townie standing. Give us a reason to hand you a SK victory after the town has already lost.We have bargaining power that goes beyond a sheer voting bloc.

With love,

Mina

P.S.: as an addendum, I actually realized that this offer could extend to the Mafia as well. Zdenek, since the cat is out of the bag anyway, and you're bound to be lynched, you could always try to bribe us to let your buddy win in endgame by promising to kill someone in the suspect pool tonight. But the SK is probably bulletproof.

[Locke Lamora]

TS: I'm inclined towards Stark. When I've got more time I'll demonstrate why.

[Magua]

Or Zdenek could just tell us if he's Stark or SK and save us all the trouble.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I lied. Actually, I do have more to say now, because I feel like throwing away my money on a taxi to make an appointment instead of taking the bus.

Firstly, SK old pal, Zdenek is BP. That means you can't even nightkill him in endgame if you wanted to. That means you need to find his buddy, and fast--even if it weren't for our ultimatum.

Benmage, I appreciate you not tunneling us and proving that part of my tirade wrong, but if your only two suspects are Magua and Zdenek...then why did...why did you...why...

That's it. I want the next words out of your mouth to be, "I apologize, guys, for singlehandedly losing the game through multiple shortsighted decisions that I made unilaterally instead of listening to the town. And to be honest, I only governed Zdenek because I'm arrogant and wanted an excuse to use my power before my death. I didn't actually care if he was scum. Boy, have I learned my lesson."

And to answer your question from before, I think Zdenek is Mafia. But I actually wasted my time doing analysis to see if we could afford to lynch him anyway. Hell, having two nightkills tonight would have told us if he had a scumbuddy, but wouldn't have reduced the number of lynches we'd need to win.

Seriously, had you just asked, "Guys, can you just wait a bit before hammering, so I can post something before my death?" I'd have done you the courtesy of unvoting, even though not once has anyone listened to me this game when I asked them to wait for a post or a question. And I am making an effort to stay calm and not throw a hissy-fit right now at the people on my wagon. Zdenek would have been lynched on D2 had everyone not been all "You guys are just scum framing poor, innocent, defenceless Zdenek. Let's lynch Feysal instead, because he mentioned Xtoxm's name in passing!"

I've been

indifferent

about TS all game. I don't like the lynch, but I'd support it since we need a direction.UNVOTE:

Wait. "Indifferent"?

Didn't you say you'd invited us, Benmage, and Kast to your wedding table because you thought all three of us were town?

Finally, something has been bothering me. It's been bothering me all game but I couldn't decide whether it was scummy or not, probably because I was concerned I was being biased. And that something is this: TS has taken every opportunity to remind people that I could be the SK. Ever since Zoraster claimed his real role, that has been their line. I don't mean to say they've been shouting 'LL IS SK' all game. It's just that where most people were happy to say that a lyncher's target is pretty much likely to be town, TS was keen to keep that thread of doubt running. Now that has come to fruition because people actually think I might be the SK. To me, that speaks of a desire to keep suspect options open for future mislynches. The push now is quite clearly one of 'LL MUST be the SK, because what other possible explanation could there be'? This is reminiscent of Magna defending Macavitar in ACoK when he made it sound ridiculous that Mac could actually be scum after he'd been tracked to a kill. So, I'm going to finally put Magua out of his misery and:

To be honest, the Gregor-is-an-SK thing on D2 was mostly hitogoroshi's theory, and I personally have no fucking clue anymore. But how do people independently deciding today that you might be the SK make us retroactively scummier? If anything, it means the theory wasn't that large a leap for a townie to make. Is there anything else behind your vote?

Also, I don't see the similarity between wondering if Gregor Clegane could be the SK and MoI absolutely denying that Mac could possibly be scum after being tracked to be a kill.

TS: I'm inclined towards Stark. When I've got more time I'll demonstrate why.

What do you think of my plan? Will you promise to lynch the SK in endgame unless he kills a suspect tonight?

Also, how the hell do you think I'm Stark instead of the SK? Because I will go out on a limb and say that a TS-MoI-Zdenek scumteam is utterly impossible given Day Two (and also, your Nexus-blocked-Setael theory is fail when Nexus would know there were at least two Starks alive that night). And what happened to your theory that Magua and dana were scumbuddies distancing?

When you return from your V/LA, I'd be very interested in seeing a full list of Stark and SK suspects from both you and LMP, as well as detailed reasoning behind your hierarchy.

~Mina

[Shadow1psc]

Wait. "Indifferent"?

Didn't you say you'd invited us, Benmage, and Kast to your wedding table because you thought all three of us were town?

At that particular moment you seemed towny. Day 1, you seemed a little over zealous about the whole self nomination thing, and I didn't quite have a town read on you until sometime later in day 2 when you started posting walls. Post mass claim, I'm not sure what to think about anyone who aren't confirmed town, call it general paranoia.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Fair enough. You get to stay off my approved SK kills list.

~Mina

[Magua]

Twilight, what do you think of my plan? Yes, it's based on there being only one Stark, but it does have you getting lynched right after Zdenek.

[Benmage]

Who does TS think the SK is?

[Zdenek]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

[Benmage]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Thats a nontown claim.

[Magua]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Thats a nontown claim.

...

...

...

[Magua]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Given that you're going to be lynched tomorrow anyways, please tell me if you're the SK, or if you're Stark.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Preview-edit @Benmage: we're voting for Locke Lamora, and he obviously isn't Mafia; I also agree with hito's and Magua's points about his play. If it's not LL, it's Magua by PoE. But some of Magua's posts don't seem as though they're coming from a scum motivation.

Also, take a good look at the guy you just governed. Go on, look at him. I'm still waiting on that apology.

---------------------------------

Magua, do you agree with

my

plan? If two confirmed town die tonight and you wind up in a kingmaker (hito is pedantic and says that apparently, Prisoner's Dilemma is inaccurate game theory terminology ) with a Stark and an SK, will you promise to vote for the Stark to win? It's imperative that every single player in the suspect pool agrees to it, because they're the ones who can choose to steal the SK's victory if he shoots off-list. The threat only holds weight if we all mean business.

Anyway, discussed this with hito a bit.

Firstly, there's the issue that scum don't volunteer to be lynched in the first place, so it's stupid to lynch the first person to offer his head on a platter. Except of course, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, you shouldn't be suggesting it as town, either, because it's a stupid antitown plan, etc. (That reminds me, I still have questions for you saved from D4, but I'll save them for later.) What I want to know is if you're town, why do you want yourself to be lynched first? Also, why aren't you self-voting if you're serious about this plan and think you're the best lynch today?

But anyway, I'm not entirely sold on your plan:

-If there are two Starks, my theory is that they're LynchMePls* and Zdenek. So this is a plan that guarantees the Starks' victory IF there are two Starks (and we should plan for a worst-case scenario). Even you've admitted that it's mostly wishful thinking, because "if there are two Starks, we've already lost."
-Why are we getting lynched before LL if you think LL is the SK? Since your plan guarantees a town loss if there are two scum, it shouldn't even matter to you who's more likely to be Stark. Either the Starks have died out with Zdenek, or we auto-lose. Did this occur to you when you chose your lynch order?
-You think that Locke Lamora is the SK, right, far above LMP and dana? In a LMP/dana/Locke endgame, Locke is not going to be the player lynched.

BUT if the SK follows my list, town could still afford to lynch us, although catching the SK will still be difficult and nasty. Remember, the SK is 100% guaranteed to wind up in

PD

KM if he doesn't hit Stark, so he's forced to follow orders. Either way, I'm not ready to revert to an autopilot lynch list just yet.

Honestly, I will volunteer to be serially killed, even if it's before Zdenek dies. Being lynched makes me go ballistic, but I'd be cool with martyring ourselves for a confirmed townie.

~Mina
-------------------------------

*I still haven't really fleshed out what I'd disliked about LMP--it's more gut and paranoid tinfoil hattery, because his claim is perfectly set-up, and the other ponies disagree with me. Maybe it's that I could buy him being obliviously, aggressively wrong

once

, but his OTT-ness and overblown rhetoric is starting to strain credulity, particularly since I don't think he's been right about anything all game. He's so over-the-top in his dana suspicion, but I don't believe LMP genuinely believes dana's posting is soooooo scummy it makes him "sick." Leaving aside his interactions with Setael, dana just strikes me as dumbtown, at worst null leaning town.

I'd also thought LMP's Setael hammer on D4 felt like a buddy overjustifying his vote. Everyone and their mothers knew Setael was scum at that point. But he felt the need to poke easy holes in Setael's logic behind his champion choice

as

he was hammering. Also, his reactions to Ben's governor REALLY did not feel townish. "Oh, dana is so so so scummy, yadda yadda, he's probably buddies with Zdenek, who I'm going to vote as an afterthought." Then he didn't blink an eye at Ben's govern ability.

Ooh, and remember LMP's attack on Feysal for his slip of assuming there was only one scumteam? I still believe that it was far from a logical assumption for a vig to make when he knew he wasn't responsible for the diddin kill and there'd already been a dayvig. It makes more sense if LMP himself knew about the set-up.

And this is why I need scum meta on both LMP and Magua. Because I'd really thought one of them had to be scum, but each of them has dropped some enormous towntells this game. Also, I need to reread Day Two, because LMP defended scum a lot more openly than I'd expect from buddies.