A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[popsofctown]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Thats a nontown claim.

YOU GOVERNED HIM

[LimMePls]

On phone at airport will post tomorrow.

[hasdgfas]

hascow, does everyone look town to you, or is there some unpopular cantidate who looks better to you?

*shakes head*

*points at Zdenek*

*glares at Benmage*

[popsofctown]

I KNOW RIGHT

[Magua]

Magua, do you agree with

my

plan? If two confirmed town die tonight and you wind up in a kingmaker (hito is pedantic and says that apparently, Prisoner's Dilemma is inaccurate game theory terminology ) with a Stark and an SK, will you promise to vote for the Stark to win? It's imperative that every single player in the suspect pool agrees to it, because they're the ones who can choose to steal the SK's victory if he shoots off-list. The threat only holds weight if we all mean business.

hito's right, Kingmaker is the proper term.

And no, I don't agree with your plan. If there's two Starks, and if Zdenek is one (which is the only way we arrive at your endgame), then I'm totally going for a Stark loss. The SK at least helped us by killing Magna. So the Starks better lynch me now or kill me now.

Firstly, there's the issue that scum don't volunteer to be lynched in the first place, so it's stupid to lynch the first person to offer his head on a platter. Except of course, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, you shouldn't be suggesting it as town, either, because it's a stupid antitown plan, etc. (That reminds me, I still have questions for you saved from D4, but I'll save them for later.) What I want to know is if you're town, why do you want yourself to be lynched first? Also, why aren't you self-voting if you're serious about this plan and think you're the best lynch today?

I'm not the best lynch today, and I don't want myself to be lynched. I'm not offering up my own lynch because I think it's a good idea, I'm simply not arguing terribly much to save my own neck, and it's really a choice of being lynched today or being lynched two days from now.

My plan has two built in assumptions:
1) There's only one Stark remaining, and
2) Zdenek is either SK or last Stark.

If both of those are true, then I'm reasonably confident that Zdenek's flip will clear enough players to sew the game up (as LL can't be Stark, LMP can't be SK, and I don't think dana is either). The only person who could fit into either slot is you, which is why you have to die regardless of Zdenek's flip.

Don't get me wrong -- if I have the choice between hammering you and getting lynched myself, you're dying. But then I would fully expect to get to lynched two days from now, as stated, so I'm not really motivated to push for it.

-If there are two Starks, my theory is that they're LynchMePls* and Zdenek. So this is a plan that guarantees the Starks' victory IF there are two Starks (and we should plan for a worst-case scenario). Even you've admitted that it's mostly wishful thinking, because "if there are two Starks, we've already lost."

If there's two Starks, I'm willing to place the blame for this entirely on Benmage's shoulders.

-Why are we getting lynched before LL if you think LL is the SK? Since your plan guarantees a town loss if there are two scum, it shouldn't even matter to you who's more likely to be Stark. Either the Starks have died out with Zdenek, or we auto-lose. Did this occur to you when you chose your lynch order?
-You think that Locke Lamora is the SK, right, far above LMP and dana? In a LMP/dana/Locke endgame, Locke is not going to be the player lynched.

Lynch order was chosen irrespective of Zdenek's flip. For instance, if Zdenek flips SK, I'd consider Locke to be cleared. However, in no case does Zdenek's flip clear you.

Stark need to realize that the SK is bulletproof, and that if I can't win, I'm going to help the SK win.

[Faraday]

fucking internet hshshshsshshshjjhjashshsa

[Benmage]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Thats a nontown claim.

YOU GOVERNED HIM

One aspect, was that I felt noone knew if they we're lynching SK or Scum...and I couldn't (at the time) fathom him scum.

I still am baffled at his role. Twyin is the only logical player to get changed after Tyrion dies... And he was investigated by Kast.

So my head simply spins.

Stark need to realize that the SK is bulletproof, and that if I can't win, I'm going to help the SK win.

This. Although the SK probably only has to hit 1-1 to win, and so could theoretically win if Zdenek was BP scum or BP town.

[Magua]

I still am baffled at his role.

Twyin is the only logical player to get changed after Tyrion dies...

And he was investigated by Kast.

There is no reason to believe that the bolded part is true. That is, there's no reason to believe it has anything to do with Tyrion dying at all. The only thing we know for 100% fact is that his role is "Modified Nightkill Immune".

[Benmage]

I still am baffled at his role.

Twyin is the only logical player to get changed after Tyrion dies...

And he was investigated by Kast.

There is no reason to believe that the bolded part is true. That is,

there's no reason to believe it has anything to do with Tyrion dying at all.

The only thing we know for 100% fact is that his role is "Modified Nightkill Immune".

Damn...thats true... wine, wine, wine-ity, wine.

ZZzzzz If Zdenek was gone today, everyone would be twiddling tomorrow?? So enough about spilt milk.

[Eddard Stark]

Magua (2) - Danakillsu, Benmage

Locke Lamora (3) Zdenek, Magua, Twilight Sparkle

Danakillsu (1) LynchMePls

Twilight Sparkle (3) Locke Lamora, Popsofctown, hasdgfas

Not voting (1) Shadow1psc

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Deadline here

[Twilight Sparkle]

On my phone, so can't answer everything, but...

OMIGOD.

YOU ARE MISSING THE FUCKING POINT.

WE. ARE GIVING. THE SK. AN ULTIMATUM.

I don't care about who you think deserves it more of the other scum factions. We are town. We want town to win.

If SK kills a scumspect tonight, he's still very very likely to win...BUT town at least has a security blanket in cade there are two Starks. We can use game theory to help the town AND ensure the SK's loyalty. And then, if the SK holds up his end of the bargain, we can still give him a nice shiny win in endgame. It's more rational than voting for whom you like more.

OH MY GOD EVEN IF YOU SECRETLY WANT THE SK TO WIN YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO TELL HIM THAT. WAY TO RUIN EVERYTHING.

This game has been like walking through coals. I don't think anyone has listened to a single theory or suspicion or strategy I've had all game, even though in retrospect they woulhave been the best moves. Maybe I should play like Benmage if I want any to follow my plans.

Oh, fuck it. SK, kill me tonight. If you don't kill me (although I'd settle for someone else on the list), I'm hammering you in LYLO. Think about it. If we mislynch Magua/LL and then lynch Zdebek tomorrow, you'll be stuck with Twilight Sparkle and another scum in LYLO. How's this: SK, would you rather guarantee a loss to Zdenek, or have just a slightly more difficult (but still very manageable) victory over town? Sorry for being so hard on you when you're a lone killer fighting bad odds and all, but I've got to play to my wincon.

[Benmage]

SHADOW

Can you place your vote now instead of waiting since you said you will.

You said TS or Magua. I'd still rather Magua go first. Please vote.

LMP.

You said you liked Magua's plan. DANA isn't being lynched today 100%. Please place your vote somewhere useful.

[Magua]

On my phone, so can't answer everything, but...

OMIGOD.

YOU ARE MISSING THE FUCKING POINT.

WE. ARE GIVING. THE SK. AN ULTIMATUM.

I get the point.

My counterpoint is that I'd rather give an ultimatum to the Starks than the SK, and that is this: If I get to be kingmaker, Starks lose.

Starks lynching me because of this just make it more likely that they lose. So the only Stark recourse is to lynch the SK before kingmaker (good), or shoot me (also good).

But really, I don't think there's two Starks:

Locke Lamora: Can't be Stark.
danakillsu: To be Stark, danakillsu would have to be "investigation immune". We've already had a Godfather flip. How many "investigation immune" Starks do you imagine there are?
Twilight Sparkle: Could be Stark, but just seems so goddamn unlikely, esp. with Magna interaction D2.
LynchMePls: Could be Stark.
Zdenek: Probably is Stark.

So if there's two Starks, it's got to be LMP + Zdenek. My hesitation on lynching LMP is that he's the one player who I'm sure isn't the SK, which is why my vote is still on Locke, as even today, Locke's really done nothing to convince me that he's town, or cares about town, etc.

[popsofctown]

wait why isn't lmp scum again? a bunch of people called him town

[Magua]

He could be Stark. Don't think he's SK.

[popsofctown]

i want to catch scum. I care naught for your petty semantics

[Shadow1psc]

I'm still very much a fan of the LMP wagon. I will place a vote when town can agree on a direction Benmage, because for now you're directing town in the direction of a non-stark lynch, where the odds of him being SK are slim. I'd be willing to bet modified kill immune could be a SK trait on Zdenek before Magua is SK.

[danakillsu]

Oddly enough, I mostly agree with Magua's analysis, and believe that it means we should actually lynch him. I think our Stark candidates are Zdenek, LMP, and Magua, and nobody's voting Zdenek or LMP. To me, it seems your choice is clear.

[popsofctown]

unvote vote LMP

die die die

[popsofctown]

poe

[Locke Lamora]

TS's suspicions/interactions that just don't add up, particularly with MoI:

ISO 7 - Mina complains that MoI is padding out posts with IIoA and theory talk, play that really looks like MoI trying hard to appear town rather than actually being pro-town. This actually all seems like a well thought-out attack and makes some good points. Voteworthy, right? There's no vote. Mina says she's waiting for the other heads to weigh in, but the vote ultimately never finds its way to Magna. I find it incongruous that these accusations were made but there's no vote to back it up. This is compounded by..

ISO 16 - hito states a definitive read on MoI has not yet been reached, but attacks him for condescension to GreyICE. Then later in the post their vote gets moved to ASOIAF for raising Benmage without actually understanding the subject of his posts (VIs). So hito can move the vote, but Mina can't? At this stage it seems that the other ponies are in catch-up mode, so this vote must have been made without Mina and Sotty being completely informed on the game's events. The clear disparity between this vote and the refusal to vote in ISO 7 where Mina attacks MoI sets alarm bells ringing for me.

ISO 10-12 are just efforts to work out Cow's restriction. On the surface, this makes sense, but throughout the game TS has been displaying tendencies to do seemingly pro-town things (e.g. work out ways to understand Cow, the Morse code for the wedding) that entail no scumhunting whatsoever. See also the massive rant about Benmage governing Zdenek - yes, we're all annoyed, but spending that much time telling Benmage he's arrogant and anti-town does not give me a pro-town vibe. We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game.

ISO 19 and 21 both feature questions and doubts cast on MoI and Mikujin. Again, neither leads to a vote; TS actually warns Mikujin here that they don't like cautious voters, a slightly less hostile version of a snipe MoI makes at Xtoxm (which I'll return to later). ISO 22 again has doubts about MoI; this time because Benmage really doesn't seem like MoI's type of player and so the raise looks suspect. Sotty gives off the definite vibe that they think MoI is pretty likely scum, but again there's no vote.

ISO 24 TS asks Cow if he's a dayvig...then vanishes until after Cow has vigged Xtoxm. Pretty convenient. I also notice that in that period both Magua and dana ask for scumteam members to be vigged; meanwhile MoI and LMP say that Cow should use it as he sees fit and don't commit to asking for a vig target. Makes me feel a bit better about Magua and dana and a bit worse about LMP.

ISO 34 - part of hito's ISO spectacular. Couple of things that ping my scumdar here: firstly, they suggest that a Mikujin townflip would make Dana look bad because Dana makes a point of being consistent in his read. This seems remarkably uncritical and one-sided to me; TS claims to have a scum read on Mikujin and yet appears to make no consideration of Mikujin-Dana interactions based on if Mikujin flips scum. Second up is the main point I made when I voted; casting the doubt about me being SK. Now, this is the start of D2, so this could make sense to me from two perspectives: 1. TS is simply aware that townies are already becoming confirmed (e.g. Cow) and doesn't want this to reach the stage where scum are trapped by PoE, or 2. TS (or buddy) tried to shoot me, thinks I am bulletproof and therefore SK - this could be explained by an xvart-protect. Either way, it reveals a concern that is far more likely to be scum than town at a stage where there's absolutely no indication of this to any uninformed townie; the idea that there's another anti-town faction in the game to worry about.

ISO 46: Sotty weighs in and responds to MoI, who is challenging her questioning of his Benmage raise. Sotty now has a town-read on MoI, saying he sounds a lot more genuine. This becomes relevant in conjunction with:

ISO 70: Mina now has a massive response to MoI, which I won't bother to dissect - I know enough about both players to know that they could fake a wall-post argument for the duration of the game if they wanted to. At this point the argument is becoming virtually impenetrable to those who don't want to spend 90% of their time on MS reading it, which is one reason that I doubt how genuine all of these interactions are. The crux is that Mina has the opposite read on MoI (and Magua) to Sotty. So we've got Mina thinking MoI is scum, Sotty thinking MoI is town and hito happy to defer to their judgement. And guess what? After all of the counterpoints, all of the poring over the minutiae of Magna's posts, there's still no vote. Which, of course, is conveniently explained away by the other two heads not sharing the read. And to those who say the interactions don't look like bussing, look at Magna's ISO 13, where he puts up a pretty decent-sized case and a vote on diddin, or ISO 21, where he makes a snide comment to Xtoxm about him finally putting down a vote. Magna was quite happy to make his buddies look scummy on D1. I certainly don't think a drawn out Magna vs Mina argument is any reason at all to think that TS isn't scum.

ISO 114: TS finally starts 'warming up' to the case on Setael. Up to this point the read has been pretty much town since Setael replaced in, with the only doubt being why Setael unvoted Feysal, which TS again references here. Not much pressure being exerted on Setael at all at this stage.

ISO 129: says either Setael or Magua is scum, based on Xtoxm's posts.

ISO 139: Setael and dana are now TS's top two. I'm really having a hard time seeing much evolution of this read. Setael is the leading wagon (admittedly of only 3 people, but with the support of Benmage) at this stage. It's already becoming pretty obvious that whether through the duel or the next day's lynch, Setael is going to be dead, so TS is really just going with the flow at this stage. Point 5 of ISO 142 also has me suspicious; this looks more like 'hey, get some reads in so we can WIFOM it up!'

ISO 154 onwards: Zdenek's been governed and now I'm the SK. In ISO 147 me being SK is still semi-bastardly. As recently as ISO 149 TS is asking Zdenek whether he is mafia or SK. By the time we get to ISO 159, TS says 'can it be anyone but LL?' Incidentally, this is what I thought was reminiscent of MoI making it sound ridiculous that Mac could be scum in ACoK. Of course the serial killer could be someone other than me. Not that long ago TS thought it could be Zdenek or Magua. Suddenly I MUST be the SK? It's not a genuine thought process.

Finally, I just get the impression that TS is obsessed with the SK. From the open letter to the SK to the seeds of doubt planted on me, TS is SK-hunting. I'm sure TS will freely admit that they're now SK-hunting, but the mentality is all fixated on the SK. Why is the initial appeal to the SK and not the scum? If the scum can't kill the SK, TS should want to strike a deal with the scum to get the SK lynched as much as make an appeal to the SK to be so kind as to help us out. I think TS is scum who's convinced Zdenek is the SK and Benmage just threw the whole plan out of the window so they've been forced to look elsewhere.

TS: I think your 'LL might be SK' theory is scummy because your instinct was to take the opportunity to cast a small amount of doubt based on an incredibly unlikely theory which you had no evidence for other than flavour-wise Gregor likes to kill people (argue with this all you want, but has anyone here ever seen a lyncher whose target is SK? If they have they certainly haven't mentioned it) rather than simply say 'LL is town'. As for your plan, I think Zdenek's the SK. So I promise to lynch Zdenek tomorrow when he's no longer unlynchable.

As for Nexus, I'm not saying blocking Setael would be the most sensible thing to do. I can, however, see Nexus thinking 'hey, Setael is confirmed scum, that's a good block'. You make the assumption that everyone is operating based on perfect logic. I'm sure we can both agree that's one thing that's definitely not happening in this game. Magua and Dana was just that, a theory. Having read back over a few things, particularly the reaction to the dayvig claim, I think they make less sense as Starks than you do.

[LimMePls]

Between Magua and TS, if either of them are not Lannister, I'll be surprised.

So Magua claims the diddin kill and no one counters, but you think he's Lannister? Explain please.

Zdenek would have been lynched on D2 had everyone not been all "You guys are just scum framing poor, innocent, defenceless Zdenek. Let's lynch Feysal instead, because he mentioned Xtoxm's name in passing!"

I hate hate HATE that you are trying to tar the Feysal wagon in hindsight. That wagon was super solid, the observations behind it were incredibly good, and I'll stand by that wagon till hell freezes over. Feysal had all the signs of Stark scum. This quote makes me think TS-Stark. Trying to beat us up over the mislynch we made earlier that YOU stayed off of screams scummy to me.

LMP. You said you liked Magua's plan. DANA isn't being lynched today 100%. Please place your vote somewhere useful.

I'm working on it. Shit man, I haven't been able to post since the last request. Give a man a break.

Unvote
Vote: TS

L-1.

Magua has been holding a giant flashing neon sign all game saying "Town". LL doesn't make sense as scum from flavor perspective. Zdenek can't be lynched today, and dana will have to wait to lylo. Pretty much PoE on TS.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Awesome. Locke Lamora is the SK.

Everyone: if you want to know what a frame case really looks like, it wasn't our Zdenek post. It was that. I know you made an awesome interaction-based case on me in Zachtown (when we were both town), and you were much more objective and open-minded even though your evidence against me looked pretty damning. There is no way you actually believe what you're arguing there. I won't defend myself against everything, but I doubt you actually reread the game or looked at other people's actions in context. You decided to vote TS (for a flimsy reason), and then clicked "ISO Twilight Sparkle" and cherry-picked a post every thirty ISOs that you could spin into a Stark interactions.

So I'm still waiting on rankings on whom you think is SK and whom you think is Stark?

Random out of context points taken from our ISO, which I don't feel like quoting

For one thing, did you only notice all this stuff

after

you voted for us? I mean, didn't you notice we didn't react to the vig earlier on? (Note: that's not actually a scumtell. I mean, MoI was doing his damnedest to coax the dayvig into taking out town.) But on D2, you thought we were town.

Also, calling dana more likely to be scum if Mikujin flipped town is...um...do you think dana is our buddy? Because otherwise, that isn't actually a scumtell after a Miku scum flip.

Extra points to saying that my being longwinded in response to MoI is a scum attempt to obscure my posting (um...you have played with me before, right?). And saying that we were distancing because we never voted MoI (to be honest, on D1 I was mostly just pressuring him to get a read, and I never would have lynched MoI over Zdenek on D2, because even I thought he looked town at points)...while ignoring

MagnaofIllusion's

side of the interactions. His vote was on us right out of the gates on D2, and unlike diddin (whose wagon he jumped off as soon as it became credible), he basically did his best to push our lynch and get rid of us. And he actually went out of his way to tarnish our credibility and undermine every one of our comments, not just a token distancing attempt.

(And actually, hito did check with us before moving his vote to ASOIAF. I think he specifically said, "I talked to Mina on AIM" in that very post in which you said, "Look at those scummy scumbags, moving their vote without talking it over when they didn't do the same for MoI." But yeah, I think we were a bit all over the place and slow to reach consensus on D1, because we weren't used to hydraing together.)

ISO 154 onwards: Zdenek's been governed and now I'm the SK. In ISO 147 me being SK is still semi-bastardly. As recently as ISO 149 TS is asking Zdenek whether he is mafia or SK. By the time we get to ISO 159, TS says 'can it be anyone but LL?' Incidentally, this is what I thought was reminiscent of MoI making it sound ridiculous that Mac could be scum in ACoK. Of course the serial killer could be someone other than me. Not that long ago TS thought it could be Zdenek or Magua. Suddenly I MUST be the SK? It's not a genuine thought process.

Firstly, a subtle distinction: I was the one who thought you being SK was semi-bastardly, and hito was the one who cast his vote for you (I think after discussing it with Sotty). hitogoroshi has really been the one who believed all along that you could be the SK. I've come around to the possibility simply because I hate your play today and I can't figure out who else it might be.

But the evolution was very natural. If it's not you, it had to be Magua or Zdenek. By PoE, I think Zdenek is Stark; his interactions with flipped scum all fit like a glove, and I think Nexus would have probably blocked Zdenek twice (given) that there aren't, by PR. And were everyone in the game not confirmed by some extent, I would have declared Magua obvtown based on his play on D6 alone (although I did have the occasional doubt earlier on). That leaves you.

ISO 10-12 are just efforts to work out Cow's restriction. On the surface, this makes sense, but throughout the game TS has been displaying tendencies to do seemingly pro-town things (e.g. work out ways to understand Cow, the Morse code for the wedding) that entail no scumhunting whatsoever. See also the massive rant about Benmage governing Zdenek - yes, we're all annoyed, but spending that much time telling Benmage he's arrogant and anti-town does not give me a pro-town vibe. We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game.

THAT'S ONLY A SCUMTELL IF I WAS DOING THAT WITHOUT ALSO SCUMHUNTING, DUMBASS. YES. WELL DONE. I'M SCUMMY FOR HAVING SUGGESTED A CODE THAT BROKE THE WEDDING, AND WOULD HAVE AVOIDED PREMATURE CLAIMS HAD PEOPLE NOT BEEN STUPID. I should have just posted nothing, because then my ratio of scumhunting to set-up speculation posts would be higher. Way to skip over thirty ISO posts that involved scumhunting to go, "Hey guys, look! Here's a post that's protown, but doesn't have scumhunting."

Also, my reaction is called giving a shit that Benmage saved scum for no reason whatsoever. As opposed to your token, "Boy, that was an antitown move, even though Ben is confirmed town." (Never mind that I'm curious if you think that post sounded fake. I can feign outrage as scum, but I don't think I'm capable of

that

level of vitriol. I would definitely not have been that nasty to Benmage had he just handed me the game on a silver platter.)

No, seriously, do you genuinely believe the bullshit you're spewing? "We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game." You've got me. I'm angry at Benmage. But I

knew

that Benmage is always arrogant. Therefore, I'm scummy for wanting to dismember him limb for limb for fucking over the town...because really, what did I expect from Benmage?

Finally, I just get the impression that TS is obsessed with the SK. From the open letter to the SK to the seeds of doubt planted on me, TS is SK-hunting. I'm sure TS will freely admit that they're now SK-hunting, but the mentality is all fixated on the SK. Why is the initial appeal to the SK and not the scum? If the scum can't kill the SK, TS should want to strike a deal with the scum to get the SK lynched as much as make an appeal to the SK to be so kind as to help us out. I think TS is scum who's convinced Zdenek is the SK and Benmage just threw the whole plan out of the window so they've been forced to look elsewhere.

You idiot, I'm not SK-hunting to the exclusion of Stark-hunting. I'm ASKING THE FUCKING SK TO KILL A STARK FOR US. IF I'M A STARK, THAT'S ME. I won't even attempt the "why the fuck would I try to force the SK to do something directly against the Stark wincon" defence, because even though it does make zero sense, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, no one ever listens to my plans anyway. And what the fuck are you talking about, "Benmage flew that plan out of the window." If I'm Stark, I'd want SK-Zdenek alive so that he kills another confirmed townie for me, not lynched! I would be sending Benmage love letters right now.

Also, to Magua: the whole reason I appealed to the SK first was 1) there's probably a non-BP Stark out there (whereas I doubt Starks could kill the SK if they wanted to), and 2) I'd thought I could show the SK that numerically, it was in his best interest to take out the Starks first. Then when I did the scenarios and realized the SK would always wind up in (*sighs*) Kingmaker, I went, "Heeeey,

wait

a minute. What if I use the town as bargaining power?"

As for your plan, I think Zdenek's the SK. So I promise to lynch Zdenek tomorrow when he's no longer unlynchable.

Nice evasion. Say Zdenek is Stark instead of SK. Do you agree to the plan? Hell, why don't you tell the SK that if he doesn't nightkill me tonight, you will personally lynch him in LYLO?

Please kill me tonight, Locke. Then you can push Zdenek tonight and then use it as an argument against LMP in PD/KM/WTVR, or then get LMP to vote dana over you in LYLO.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

LMP, can you unvote?

Zdenek can hammer right now.

[Twilight Sparkle]

...never mind, pops moved his vote.

Ignore me.