A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[popsofctown]

Shadow, Setael was ascetic.

[Eddard Stark]

L

ocke Lamora (3) Zdenek, Magua, Twilight Sparkle
Twilight Sparkle (3) hasdgfas, LynchMePls, popsofctown
LynchMePls (3) Shadow1psc, Danakillsu, Benmage

Not voting (1) Locke Lamora

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Deadline here

[popsofctown]

At least you're posting on the right account.

[Shadow1psc]

The simple argument to that wildly speculative meta is that Magna simply didn't think about jailkeeping his team.

You're saying that you think:

1) There is a serial killer in the game
2) LMP is Stark
3) LMP claimed a kill D2, making himself a target to the SK
4) Magna didn't think about jailing LMP N2 *and LMP agreed*

Do I have that right?

I see what you're saying, but if LMP is vanilla/one shot extra scum kill (which isn't far fetched in this game) and was spent, and scum caught on to pops confirming himself (scum knew dgb wasn't crazy xD), it's not far-fetched. It's not the best plan, but the team lost their footing right quick.

[danakillsu]

Guys. I hate to be the wet blanket here, but LMP doesn't make much sense as scum.

Doesn't make sense as SK. Hope we can all agree on this one.

Stark. This one's going to be a bit roundabout, and it's going to be setup WIFOM.

Let's pretend that LMP is Stark. He did the chesskid3 kill. First of all, this means that mafia decided to kill chesskid3 over Benmage, hasdgfas, and Locke Lamora, which I'm just not buying.

Secondly, and here's the setup speculation part, I'm 99% sure that MagnaofIllusion jailkept popsofctown N2. pops' friendly neighbor message did not get to Shadow N2. We know that he wasn't roleblocked by town, so that leaves jailkept by Magna, or messed with by an unknown scum PR. It seems obvious to me that there's no way for scum to have a bus driver/redirector, as then they would've just killed Benmage N4 instead of Nexus/Andrius. So I'm going with jailkept by Magna.

That means that Magna, who had lost two partners, didn't choose to protect another partner. Makes sense for Zdenek partner. But for LMP to be Stark, it would mean that he'd have to have some PR that was so valuable that the mafia needed it to go off *even after he claimed a killing role with an SK in the game*.

URGGHHH

unvote, vote Twilight Sparkle

Could you explain to me why it is that you're doing everything in your power to
a) Primarily NOT lynch Magua.
b) Secondarily not lynch ANYBODY!
You're jumping off wagons when they get some votes seemingly just to kill the wagon. I don't really agree that Magua's points make LMP confirmed not Stark.

Also:

If the SK kills someone scummy tonight, then I, danakillsu, promise to let him win if I'm left in a final three with one SK and one Stark. Meanwhile, if the SK kills someone confirmed, then I, danakillsu, promise to let the Starks win instead.

[Magua]

Could you explain to me why it is that you're doing everything in your power to
a) Primarily NOT lynch Magua.
b) Secondarily not lynch ANYBODY!
You're jumping off wagons when they get some votes seemingly just to kill the wagon. I don't really agree that Magua's points make LMP confirmed not Stark.

Why do you think he's doing it?

You think I'm scum. Do you think I'm defending LMP because he's my partner, or because he's town?

[danakillsu]

Could you explain to me why it is that you're doing everything in your power to
a) Primarily NOT lynch Magua.
b) Secondarily not lynch ANYBODY!
You're jumping off wagons when they get some votes seemingly just to kill the wagon. I don't really agree that Magua's points make LMP confirmed not Stark.

Why do you think he's doing it?

You think I'm scum. Do you think I'm defending LMP because he's my partner, or because he's town?

Let him answer the question, please.
I think you are the most likely scum, not confirmed scum. Therefore what you say about LMP has little bearing on what I think about him.

[Magua]

I think you are the most likely scum, not confirmed scum. Therefore what you say about LMP has little bearing on what I think about him.

Has bearing on what I think about you. Do you think Magua-scum is defending LMP because its LMP-scum or LMP-town?

[danakillsu]

I think you are the most likely scum, not confirmed scum. Therefore what you say about LMP has little bearing on what I think about him.

Has bearing on what I think about you. Do you think Magua-scum is defending LMP because its LMP-scum or LMP-town?

I already answered this false dilemma, and will not do so again. I do not think either, because I don't know for a fact that you are scum. If you WERE scum, LMP wouldn't be, obviously. How is that supposed to change the fact that I want one of you two lynched today?

[Magua]

I already answered this false dilemma, and will not do so again. I do not think either, because I don't know for a fact that you are scum. If you WERE scum, LMP wouldn't be, obviously. How is that supposed to change the fact that I want one of you two lynched today?

It's not. Just curious what you think.

[popsofctown]

WHY IS THIS GAME SO HARD!!!


Maybe I should just sheep hasgdfas

[Benmage]

Deadline is a little over 3 days.

[Magua]

Locke Lamora is best lynch.

Will vote Twilight Sparkle only to avoid NL.

Not interested in voting either danakillsu or LynchMePls.

[Shadow1psc]

I still don't understand why people are willing to lynch LL. Someone explain that to me.

[Benmage]

It is baffling. The ones voting for him beliebe him to be a NK-immune (possible inv-immune aswell) SK.

So there's a third party who must lynch a third party. (Fine)
-They can't be NK'd, so point in favor of the lyncher.
--Lyncher can be NK'd...so has to attack lynchee.
---Lynchee can NK. Lynchee NKs pest Lyncher.

I don't see LL being the SK either. Plus Zoraster...the Lyncher, Named LL as the Mountain. Sorry but the Mountain is a Lannister!

Magua is the ideal PoE lynch.

LMP because...

[popsofctown]

dana whenever i get on a wagon they mount a defense and the defense is good.

Twilight sparkle is the best PoE.
Shadow is close but no one wants to kill shadow for some reason. Because the wedding planner definitely can't be stark.

[Magua]

I still don't understand why people are willing to lynch LL. Someone explain that to me.

Because I think he can be SK. You're free to disagree, but I think it's been explained at length.

Shadow is close but no one wants to kill shadow for some reason. Because the wedding planner definitely can't be stark.

My townread on Shadow has zero to do with his role.

[Shadow1psc]

Ok, let's go with this; My preferred lynch order of candidates expressed:

LMP > TS > Magua > LL.

[Twilight Sparkle]

LMP and LL lynches are both good lynches, but for different reasons.

LL isn't Stark, unless zoraster was lying. LMP isn't SK unless he pulled the worlds stupidest gambit (claiming the scumkill as sk d2..bluh...?)

An LMP townflip pretty much confirms we only have one Stark remaining. Also, regarding Magua's logic that LMP can't be Stark, I disagree. Smart money had him as being oneshot (otherwise he wouldn't have claimed so casually). Smart money ALSO has a nk-immune SK. Between the two factors, it's not at all unlikely to assume that the SK wouldn't view fakeclaiming LMP as a threat (whether due to him being kill immune, or thinking LMP is oneshot). Certainly not enough for the protective element of MoI's role to trump the roleblock on a townie.

As for LL...yeah, I can accept that the setup is a bit odd. But his play (66 post ISO wat) is pretty congruent with SK who got pseudo-confirmed as town and proceeded to go go gadget coast the rest of the game.

Dana as Stark makes extremely little sense. As sk, outside fringe possible, but inv immune in a game that has a godfather already? Poor kast.

Magua could also be SK, but it's such an inspired fucking play coming from him as opposed to LL. not sure if I could see sk giving that much of a shit throughout the game.

so, to review:

SK is probably one of LL or Magua.

Zdenek is stark. If he has a buddy, it's probably LMP.

-hito

[popsofctown]

I CAN GO WITH THIS

UNVOTE VOTE LMP

[Twilight Sparkle]

yeah actually more I think about it, LMP is better than LL. Unless there are two starks and neither of them are LMP, lynching LMP is a great move. Regardless of his flip, there's only one stark left, so:

Lynch LMP, 9

Assume the sk and scum don't cancel eachother out, 7

lynch zdenek, 6

there's only one kill, 5

five people sk hunting, get two chances, lynch both LL and Magua. seems like the winning move!

Come to think of it, this has Magua-sk making a little more sense, because it explains why he'd come out with that weird defense of LMP.

regardless Mina has been the most engaged of us three and I'd like to chat with her about the LMP voteswap before I do it. I think she supports it (Mina if you do you can do it without talking to me, you have my blessing) but never hurts to double-check.

-hito

[Locke Lamora]

Going to format this slightly differently to see if anything sticks out because I've got the nagging feeling that something just doesn't add up.

Starks

Xtoxm - Catelyn Stark - Stark Aligned Neighbouriser
diddin - Brynden Tully, Stark Aligned Tracker
MagnaofIllusion - Edmure Tully - Stark Aligned Jailkeeper
Setael - Robb Stark - Modified Ascetic Godfather

Third Party

Zoraster - Oberyn Martell, Self Aligned lyncher

Lannister PRs

Feysal - Petyr Baelish, Lannister Aligned Voyeur
xvart - Joffrey Baratheon - Lannister Aligned Jack of Some trades
Kast - Varys - Lannister Aligned Rolename Cop
Nexus - Margaery Tyrell - Lannister Aligned Roleblocker
Bunnylover - Grandmaester Pycelle - Lannister Aligned Doctor
DrippingGoofball - Osmund Kettleblack, Lannister Aligned Brother
Andrius - Osney Kettleblack - Lannister Aligned Brother

Benmage -

Hand of the King

- confirmed Osfryd Kettleblack, Lannister Brother w/ Andrius + DGB
Hasdgfas - confirmed Ilyn Payne, 1-shot dayvig, shot Xtoxm D1
LynchMePls - claimed Qyburn, 1-shot CPR doc, killed Chesskid N1.
Shadow1psc - confirmed Olenna Redwyne, Wedding Planner
Zdenek - claimed Tywin Lannister, confirmed Modified Kill-Immune by Kast
Magua - claimed Walder Frey, 1-shot vig, shot Diddin N1

GreyICE

DTMaster

popsofctown - confirmed Jaime Lannister, Friendly Knight

Lannister VTs

Chesskid3 - ‘The Imp’ Tyrion Lannister, Lannister Aligned Townie
Raivann - Randyll Tarly - Lannister Aligned Townie
Thor665 - Roose Bolton Lannister Aligned Townie

Locke Lamora - confirmed Gregor Clegane, claimed VT
Danakillsu - claimed Kevan Lannister, no role name received by Kast so either VT, goon or inv-immune
Twilight Sparkle - claimed Loras Tyrell, VT

That's 14 players who are either confirmed or have claimed PRs for the Lannister side. Does anyone think they could all be telling the truth? If we take Zdenek out, does anyone think that everyone else is telling the truth? For those that don't, would a Stark flip from LMP or Magua confirm the other as Lannister? Similarly, if one of Dana, TS or me flips Stark or SK, how does your opinion of the other two change?

Either scum still has one more very powerful PR to counteract town's pretty strong power (e.g. doctor, roleblocker, 3 mod-confirmed townies, another role that can confirm itself as town to others), or (more likely), there are 2 Starks and a SK left. If we hit the SK then people will know I'm town, but I think that's Zdenek so that's probably out today. I guess what I'm trying to say is, can we practically confirm anyone as Lannister by lynching one of today's potential lynches (me, TS, Magua, LMP, Dana)? In terms of PoE, LMP probably makes the most sense but I still find myself agreeing with Magua's points against him being Stark.

P-edit: TS, from your perspective, if there are two Starks and neither of them are LMP, doesn't that make Dana and Zdenek obv-scum?

[popsofctown]

dude i just dont even know man

[LimMePls]

Come to think of it, this has Magua-sk making a little more sense, because it explains why he'd come out with that weird defense of LMP.

What was "weird" about the defense? Seemed like perfectly valid logic.

I'm fine with going to PoE if I have to. I'm also fine if you guys feel my flip says something about the other claims. I'm happy with my play this game (yes, even the Feysal lynch). If I were still alive going forward, I'd lynch the following list, bottom up:

popsofctown
Benmage
Hasdgfas
Magua
Locke Lamora
Danakillsu*
Twilight Sparkle*
Zdenek

*could be swapped.

Hammer away. God speed guys.

[Twilight Sparkle]

P-edit: TS, from your perspective, if there are two Starks and neither of them are LMP, doesn't that make Dana and Zdenek obv-scum?

Yes, and I think that Dana as a Stark goon is really fucking unlikely.

ergo, I think the starks are either Zdenek and LMP or just Zdenek.

-hito