A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Eddard Stark]

The friendship is magic votecount. Brought to you by Faraday. Remember, friends are important.

Locke Lamora (3) Zdenek, Magua, Twilight Sparkle
Twilight Sparkle (2) hasdgfas, LynchMePls

LynchMePls (4) Shadow1psc, Danakillsu, Benmage, popsofctown

Not voting (1) Locke Lamora

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Deadline here

[Twilight Sparkle]

...oh, fuck.

Okay, I have work and will be out all day, and no time to discuss this with hito/Sotty, but don't hammer yet.

Just realize the "Lynch LMP to narrow the suspect pool" plan conflicts with the "Force the SK to kill the second Stark" plan.

Magua, I changed my mind. You have to agree to the plan. Because I looked at the scenarios, and tonight is when we need a suspect to die. It doesn't matter if you eat a Stark NK the night before Kingmaker.

I am going to cry. Just watch, the scum will be Dana and Shadow.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Also, Locke, why didn't you respond to that big post, or to my questions about your unvote?

Did something about my post give you the impression we're a deluded townie?

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I assume you're on your phone now with no AIM access? well fuck we can just use the thread to chat

The idea behind an LMP lynch is that, regardless of whether he flips Stark or Lannister, there ISN'T a second Stark to deal with. This can only be wrong if there are Starks in: Gregor Clegane, the confirmed wedding planner and supertown shadow, would have to be goon and bussing like a motherfucker dana, Jamie Lannister.

In which case, shit, let the sk kill who he wants. It's not kingmaker if the Stark kill goes away when Zdenek dies. It's five man lynch then three man LYLO. no kingmaker here cap'n.

So, lynching LMP is only really bad if one of {dana, pops, shadow, LL} is Stark, and any of them as Stark would just blow my mind.

-hito

[Locke Lamora]

Mina: in a nutshell, it was just how angry you were. It seemed like you were genuinely, utterly frustrated with some of the things I said and wanted to kill me. Call me a sucker, but I got a town vibe from it. As for your other questions, I'll get to them in the next 24 hours, as I'm off for Easter from tomorrow. Honestly, I'm still weighing up possibilities of who could be scum and reading back and it hasn't all clicked yet. Right now I'm putting the majority of my time into that because I think it's more likely to help us win the game than me responding to all of your points.

I need to clarify two things:

1. Shadow (and those in your wedding QT): have you been confirmed as Olenna Redwyne by the mod, or have you only confirmed that you made the seating arrangements? What were you told about the wedding in your original PM?

2. Pops: do you have any experience with ascetic-type roles?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Sorry for the delay. I could log onto ebuddy, but I've been running like mad getting ready for work, and was in a taxi with a chatty driver.

See, the optimal move would be to lynch a SK suspect

and then

force the SK to kill LMP. Because he can't take the risk of there being two scum and winding up in KM. But I don't suppose we can change the deal now.

Meh. Last-minute dana-Stark paranoia, I guess. If there are six Starks, I'd doubt they'd all have roles, and it's not ENTIRELY impossible he was distancing from Setael.

Have to go. Still have questions for Magua, but I don't know who's a better lynch option, so use your judgment.

Mina

[Shadow1psc]

I want Twilight Sparkle in all my games. Or at least their reaction pics.

[Magua]

The lack of TS reaction pics is disappointing.

Nothing else has really changed. TS is a better lynch than LMP.

Zdenek could be just a little bit useful here and just claim, to speed the whole thing up.

[Magua]

UNVOTE: Locke Lamora
VOTE: Twilight Sparkle
L-3

[Twilight Sparkle]

I want Twilight Sparkle in all my games. Or at least their reaction pics.

Stop encouraging him. *wince*

~Mina

[popsofctown]

[Twilight Sparkle]

don't mind Mina, she just drank a bunch of haterade for breakfast

(seriously though, best uses of reaction pictures are situational. if I spammed them they wouldn't be nearly so appropriate)

Anyway:

unvote

I'll refrain from voting LMP until I hear Mina's thoughts on Dana-scum (because if dana is scum the whole plan goes tits-up) but unless dana-scum looks way more likely than it does from where I'm sitting I'm thinking a LMP lynch is best.

-hito

[Faraday]

BUMP. gonna prod people like a fucking badass mod that i am if they need it.

[Eddard Stark]

HASCOW AND ZDENEK HAVE BEEN PRODDED.

[Benmage]

Hold the phone...and I am literally on my phone.
don't lynch TS.... the night kast died. Only kast died.

Why does an inv immune SK fear a cop?

TS can't be sk.

Plus the likely hood of zdenek being RB and scum having him submit the kill is impossible at this point
...right?

[Shadow1psc]

L
M
P

[Twilight Sparkle]

Upon reflection/chatting with Mina, I think Magua is actually a more likely SK than Locke. His "lynch me today or not at all" rings a bit hollow, and his defense of LMP seems a bit post-hoc from a perspective of "how can I keep LMP alive today?" - which SK would LOVE to do if they thought LMP could be Stark. I'd be down for a switch onto Magua from LMP, if we could get momentum. Otherwise I'll vote LMP tomorrow sometime.

Eitehr we, we lynch Zdenek tomorrow and see where we stand.

-hito

[Magua]

Hold the phone...and I am literally on my phone.
don't lynch TS.... the night kast died. Only kast died.

Why does an inv immune SK fear a cop?

TS can't be sk.

Plus the likely hood of zdenek being RB and scum having him submit the kill is impossible at this point
...right?

You seem to be confusing TS with danakillsu. There's no reason to believe TS would be an investigation-immune SK, as TS was never investigated.

N3 possibilities:
1) SK and Mafia both shot Kast. This is what I personally believe, and is the reason I don't think danakillsu is the SK. He has zero reason to fear Kast-the-rolecop, as he was already rolecopped.
2) One shot Kast, the other shot Twilight Sparkle (who was protected by BunnyLover). That'd be a weird kill. Then again, I thought xvart was a weird kill.
3) SK shot Kast, mafia shot someone else who was bulletproof (wouldn't be Zdenek, as Zdenek was outted in thread); this would imply mafia shot the SK. I don't find this one plausible, because then there would've been a push to get this person lynched after the massclaim.
Or, lest I forget, 4) Zdenek is the SK and was roleblocked, which would mean that Nexus didn't roleblock him N4, which I'm not buying, but doesn't matter because he's getting lynched tomorrow anyways.

Upon reflection/chatting with Mina, I think Magua is actually a more likely SK than Locke. His "lynch me today or not at all" rings a bit hollow, and his defense of LMP seems a bit post-hoc from a perspective of "how can I keep LMP alive today?" - which SK would LOVE to do if they thought LMP could be Stark. I'd be down for a switch onto Magua from LMP, if we could get momentum. Otherwise I'll vote LMP tomorrow sometime.

You only seem to think I'm scum when I'm voting you.

[popsofctown]

SHHHHHH

[hasdgfas]

I'd be down for a switch onto Magua from LMP, if we could get momentum.

*shakes head*

[Locke Lamora]

Shadow. Pops. Read. Answer.

I need to clarify two things:

1. Shadow (and those in your wedding QT): have you been confirmed as Olenna Redwyne by the mod, or have you only confirmed that you made the seating arrangements? What were you told about the wedding in your original PM?

2. Pops: do you have any experience with ascetic-type roles?

[Locke Lamora]

I've broken this up into multiple places to make it easier to see what I'm responding to. As for the SK/Stark lists, I'll get to them once I have some responses *glares*. Rest assured, Zdenek is number one SK.

Random out of context points taken from our ISO, which I don't feel like quoting

For one thing, did you only notice all this stuff

after

you voted for us? I mean, didn't you notice we didn't react to the vig earlier on? (Note: that's not actually a scumtell. I mean, MoI was doing his damnedest to coax the dayvig into taking out town.) But on D2, you thought we were town.

Also, calling dana more likely to be scum if Mikujin flipped town is...um...do you think dana is our buddy? Because otherwise, that isn't actually a scumtell after a Miku scum flip.

I only noticed some of this stuff when I went back and looked at your posts after I got increasingly suspicious about the whole SK thing. For example, I had suspicions about the MoI interactions when I voted, but I didn't have time to put it all together (hence me saying I thought you were Stark and I would show why later). The vig reaction situation was honestly something I had to read through again because I didn't really remember who had reacted, how they reacted and who had skipped over the situation.

As for Dana, it seems pretty unlikely that you're buddies. I guess it's the way you're holding the idea that Mikujin is scum but then only looking at Dana from the perspective that Mikujin is town. A connectional tell based on two living players that runs contradictory to your reads does not flow naturally.

Extra points to saying that my being longwinded in response to MoI is a scum attempt to obscure my posting (um...you have played with me before, right?). And saying that we were distancing because we never voted MoI (to be honest, on D1 I was mostly just pressuring him to get a read, and I never would have lynched MoI over Zdenek on D2, because even I thought he looked town at points)...while ignoring

MagnaofIllusion's

side of the interactions. His vote was on us right out of the gates on D2, and unlike diddin (whose wagon he jumped off as soon as it became credible), he basically did his best to push our lynch and get rid of us. And he actually went out of his way to tarnish our credibility and undermine every one of our comments, not just a token distancing attempt.

(And actually, hito did check with us before moving his vote to ASOIAF. I think he specifically said, "I talked to Mina on AIM" in that very post in which you said, "Look at those scummy scumbags, moving their vote without talking it over when they didn't do the same for MoI." But yeah, I think we were a bit all over the place and slow to reach consensus on D1, because we weren't used to hydraing together.)

Yes, I know you're longwinded as town and scum. It was the notion that of all people, you (Mina) were at loggerheads with the only other poster in the game who can match you in post length, in an argument that I felt, upon reading it, never reached the point of being constructive. It seemed like more of a distraction than anything else, and I was reminded of AGoT. As for the MoI interactions, yes, I focused on your posts more than his, and that was pretty much because I was ISO-ing you. I also thought his attitude to you was strange if he simply wanted to get you lynched. He came out of the gate with a vote on you that looked more than a little pre-planned and only produced a case when there was already a decent-sized wagon on you. If he wanted to convince people to actually lynch you, I would have expected that with the vote. Having said that, I have now noticed that he also tried to tie you to Setael, which makes me feel a bit better about your slot.

As for moving the vote, this is probably why I'm perceiving a disparity in some of your reads. When the distinction between voting and not voting is partly based on whether you've managed to talk to each other about it, it's pretty obvious that there are going to be inconsistencies in what you do and don't consider noteworthy. Judging people on why they do and don't vote for certain players is a pretty important part of scumhunting.

ISO 154 onwards: Zdenek's been governed and now I'm the SK. In ISO 147 me being SK is still semi-bastardly. As recently as ISO 149 TS is asking Zdenek whether he is mafia or SK. By the time we get to ISO 159, TS says 'can it be anyone but LL?' Incidentally, this is what I thought was reminiscent of MoI making it sound ridiculous that Mac could be scum in ACoK. Of course the serial killer could be someone other than me. Not that long ago TS thought it could be Zdenek or Magua. Suddenly I MUST be the SK? It's not a genuine thought process.

Firstly, a subtle distinction: I was the one who thought you being SK was semi-bastardly, and hito was the one who cast his vote for you (I think after discussing it with Sotty). hitogoroshi has really been the one who believed all along that you could be the SK. I've come around to the possibility simply because I hate your play today and I can't figure out who else it might be.

But the evolution was very natural. If it's not you, it had to be Magua or Zdenek. By PoE, I think Zdenek is Stark; his interactions with flipped scum all fit like a glove, and I think Nexus would have probably blocked Zdenek twice (given) that there aren't, by PR. And were everyone in the game not confirmed by some extent, I would have declared Magua obvtown based on his play on D6 alone (although I did have the occasional doubt earlier on). That leaves you.

Again, hydra stuff is confusing. As for you hating my play, yes, it sucks today, and all game, to be honest. I've not been engaged enough for most of it, which is a problem I think I have in the middle parts of Large Themes in particular, and I've been prodding and probing today to see if I can get a much stronger hold on what's going on, which I've probably been lacking since about D2.

Right, but as I pointed out, you're still questioning whether Zdenek is Stark or SK not long before you declare I pretty much have to be the SK. Sure, Magua's play has been pro-town today, but when did you get from that to 'LL must be SK'? If I was SK and I thought I was near the bottom of a lynch list, you know what I'd do? Try to be the most damned pro-town player you've seen in your life - and if you're hunting another faction, that's not actually too hard to do. So my issue was that you were suddenly presenting the case that I was the only possibility that made any sense, which is clearly not true (and you've clearly gone back on this thinking since that point anyway, proving my point).

ISO 10-12 are just efforts to work out Cow's restriction. On the surface, this makes sense, but throughout the game TS has been displaying tendencies to do seemingly pro-town things (e.g. work out ways to understand Cow, the Morse code for the wedding) that entail no scumhunting whatsoever. See also the massive rant about Benmage governing Zdenek - yes, we're all annoyed, but spending that much time telling Benmage he's arrogant and anti-town does not give me a pro-town vibe. We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game.

THAT'S ONLY A SCUMTELL IF I WAS DOING THAT WITHOUT ALSO SCUMHUNTING, DUMBASS. YES. WELL DONE. I'M SCUMMY FOR HAVING SUGGESTED A CODE THAT BROKE THE WEDDING, AND WOULD HAVE AVOIDED PREMATURE CLAIMS HAD PEOPLE NOT BEEN STUPID. I should have just posted nothing, because then my ratio of scumhunting to set-up speculation posts would be higher. Way to skip over thirty ISO posts that involved scumhunting to go, "Hey guys, look! Here's a post that's protown, but doesn't have scumhunting."

Also, my reaction is called giving a shit that Benmage saved scum for no reason whatsoever. As opposed to your token, "Boy, that was an antitown move, even though Ben is confirmed town." (Never mind that I'm curious if you think that post sounded fake. I can feign outrage as scum, but I don't think I'm capable of

that

level of vitriol. I would definitely not have been that nasty to Benmage had he just handed me the game on a silver platter.)

No, seriously, do you genuinely believe the bullshit you're spewing? "We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game." You've got me. I'm angry at Benmage. But I

knew

that Benmage is always arrogant. Therefore, I'm scummy for wanting to dismember him limb for limb for fucking over the town...because really, what did I expect from Benmage?

Yes, these things are pro-town. It's not about ratios, or that you weren't doing any scumhunting otherwise. It was about spending a lot of time in the game doing things that weren't scumhunting, when all three heads didn't really seem to have that much time (particularly around the point of trying to work out the Cow restriction). But hey, this is all WIFOM, I'm probably slipping into the 'too-townie' fallacy in relation to your efforts to figure out the game, and it was useful for the reaction as much as anything.

Finally, I just get the impression that TS is obsessed with the SK. From the open letter to the SK to the seeds of doubt planted on me, TS is SK-hunting. I'm sure TS will freely admit that they're now SK-hunting, but the mentality is all fixated on the SK. Why is the initial appeal to the SK and not the scum? If the scum can't kill the SK, TS should want to strike a deal with the scum to get the SK lynched as much as make an appeal to the SK to be so kind as to help us out. I think TS is scum who's convinced Zdenek is the SK and Benmage just threw the whole plan out of the window so they've been forced to look elsewhere.

You idiot, I'm not SK-hunting to the exclusion of Stark-hunting. I'm ASKING THE FUCKING SK TO KILL A STARK FOR US. IF I'M A STARK, THAT'S ME. I won't even attempt the "why the fuck would I try to force the SK to do something directly against the Stark wincon" defence, because even though it does make zero sense, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, no one ever listens to my plans anyway. And what the fuck are you talking about, "Benmage flew that plan out of the window." If I'm Stark, I'd want SK-Zdenek alive so that he kills another confirmed townie for me, not lynched! I would be sending Benmage love letters right now.

Also, to Magua: the whole reason I appealed to the SK first was 1) there's probably a non-BP Stark out there (whereas I doubt Starks could kill the SK if they wanted to), and 2) I'd thought I could show the SK that numerically, it was in his best interest to take out the Starks first. Then when I did the scenarios and realized the SK would always wind up in (*sighs*) Kingmaker, I went, "Heeeey,

wait

a minute. What if I use the town as bargaining power?"

Well, you're asking the SK to kill a suspect player for us. We don't know they're going to listen, and we don't know they're going to hit a Stark. Other than that, yeah, I have to agree with you here. I thought 2 Starks might want to get rid of the SK right about now, but it's probably a day early. The only real reasons they could have to do that are a) they're worried enough that he'll take one of them out that they don't want to keep him around on the chance he'll take out an extra townie or b) they're confident they can engineer enough mislynches to make it to the end of the game with only 1 kill a night (which would be another 2 on D7 and D8 if they did lynch the SK today).

[LimMePls]

Hold the phone...and I am literally on my phone.
don't lynch TS.... the night kast died. Only kast died.

Why does an inv immune SK fear a cop?

TS can't be sk.

Plus the likely hood of zdenek being RB and scum having him submit the kill is impossible at this point
...right?

I have no idea what you're getting at here.

[Shadow1psc]

Shadow. Pops. Read. Answer.

I need to clarify two things:

1. Shadow (and those in your wedding QT): have you been confirmed as Olenna Redwyne by the mod, or have you only confirmed that you made the seating arrangements? What were you told about the wedding in your original PM?

2. Pops: do you have any experience with ascetic-type roles?

I have been confirmed as to having made the seating arrangements. I knew nothing of the wedding in my original PM. It was sprung on me actually like... an hour before it happened, and I had to quickly pull it together based off my reads, and I was not to post about it in thread or ask for suggestions.

[Locke Lamora]

So you were Olenna Redwyne, VT, before that?