The Mafia with the Hydras - Game Over!

[Lord Fonzi]

Yos, your read on Copper, please.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

I'd also say the same about Incognito, so his suspicion on me feels wrong. I'm not clear why he suspects me, exactally; it bugs me that at first he called me town, and then when I casually mentioned I suspect him, he started saying he suspects me, but never explained it. It feels like he's trying to position himself so he can justify getting on a wagon on me later, while trying to avoid a fight with me right now; he keeps doing these "well, i suspect Yos, for vague reasons, but I'm going to vote for person X instead" things that are giving me bad vibes.

I'm still going back and forth on you actually. The biggest things that I haven't liked about you are the following:

1) I think your defense of Frogito Ergo Sum seems really unnatural. It's weird to me how you've accused Final Destination of lurking and looking scummy for it but have ignored people who I'd consider to be either worse offenders of lurking or on par with FD - namely FES, Copper, Unicorn Brethren. With FES in particular, you've had this unwavering town read of them for reasons that I can't completely comprehend.

Eh; I'm not going to attack someone if I think they're town, not. I agree it'd be better if FES posted more, but every time they do post, it just screams town to me; both CES and Shanba are fitting their town meta to a T here.

I mean, just go back and look at day 1, based on the alignment flips we have so far. Ether and Gummybears was fighting, what we now know for a fact was a town on town fight, and what did he do? He disagreed with Ether, saying her case on Gummybears was weak, but he did it without attacking Ether or calling her scummy at all. He later defended Ether and implied that he thought she was town (for example, here):

Oh and more people should trust Yos' ability to read Ether.

Later, though, when she was trying to push the US wagon (another mislynch), he opposed her, said he didn't necessarily trust her reads and refused to let her pressure him into joining the US wagon (another town wagon), and in fact argued against the US wagon, while still not attacking Ether at all.

That's 2 separate town v town fights on day 1, the kind of thing scum generally love to throw propane on and get to flare up, and in both cases he basically defended both sides against each other, refusing to take either side or to vote for either one of them. He wasn't trying to get mislynches, and he wasn't trying to get friends or form a faction either. He was just trying to stop pro-town people from getting lynched, while trying to push wagons on FD and, the next day, on Spot.

I understand that he hasn't posted all that often. But look at what he has done. Based on what we know right now, it looks like his action pretty clearly had both pro-town intent and pro-town results. There's really no gain for him trying to play like that as scum; scum generally don't see town vs town fights and try to wade in and disarm it, there's no gain in that and lots of risk; they're much more likely to try to either get a mislynch, or try to make both sides look bad, or try to get an ally.

[Profane Confusion]

That's actually a pretty decent explanation. Urgh.

- Incog

[YosFlavouredCayke]

Yos, your read on Copper, please.

Meh. Null to mildly scummy. Like I mentioned before, I really hate the way he voted FES and put him at L -2 just because FES wanted to keep his vote on FD on day 2 when no one else was. Copper later justified this as "trying to force people to place a vote that matters", but it still seems really heavy handed and somewhat anti-town.

Other then that, I wouldn't say I have a read on the role at all, which in and of itself is mildly damning. They've been fairly noncommital for much of the game.

The one big, surprising move they did, which was to suddenly leave the FES wagon for the Balam wagon, actually struck me as mildly pro-town, although I'm not sure I can explain why, other then to say that it felt more, I don't know, proactive then I'd expect from Copper as scum (scum tend to be more reactive then proactive). But other then that, most of Copper's posts have been very careful and tepid, with a lot of moderate in-between positions. And, of course, Copper really hasn't made that many posts.

Copper could go either way; and because he's made so few solid commitments, he could be scum with almost anyone in the game. I don't want to lynch him today, though; there are scummier players, and if we don't lynch scum today I think we're in trouble.

[Profane Confusion]

Copper feels like the skating scum that everyone just kinda ignores who normally makes it to endgame with absolutely no ties to anyone leaving the townie left making the decision wishing they actually used their time wisely to figure them out before it was too late. I'm here to squash that right here right now. If I need to make a case to show why they deserve votes, I will.

It'd be nice to get some kind of confirmation that MoS and Primate are actually looking at the game? Just because the account isn't activated doesn't mean they can't just post separately on their own accounts for the time being like TheFonz and Lord Gurgi did.

And where's everyone else?

- Incog

[TheButtonmen]

Vote Count:

YosFlavouredCayke (3): Mastermate, Final Destination, DaSpot
Copper (2): Profane Confusion, Lord Fonzi
Final Destination (2): FES, YosFlavouredCayke
Balam (1): Copper


Not Voting: Balam

With nine alive it's five to lynch.

Deadline is May 1st @ 19:00 EST

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

I'm getting tired of seething with rage. Can we get somewhere with this game?

[Primate]

I didn't show up yesterday because I hadn't recieved a role yet and I don't like the idea of making a post in a game without having that knowledge so you can be held accountable (I have it now). I have started reading though and will carry on now. Hopefully mith'll turn us on tonight.

[Profane Confusion]

I'm getting tired of seething with rage. Can we get somewhere with this game?

See, this is the kind of thing that I really hate. It's like the people in this game just lock a vote down and go into shut-down mode where they feel like nothing else needs to be commented on and that a lynch should just happen already. You have nothing new to comment on over the last page or so?

[Profane Confusion]

I'll remember more consistently eventually.

- Incog

[YosFlavouredCayke]

I'm getting tired of seething with rage. Can we get somewhere with this game?

See, this is the kind of thing that I really hate. It's like the people in this game just lock a vote down and go into shut-down mode where they feel like nothing else needs to be commented on and that a lynch should just happen already. You have nothing new to comment on over the last page or so?

(nods) Yeah, he's not even pretending to read my posts anymore. There's a reason i've stopped bothering trying to reason with this guy.

[Balam]

(AGar)

Hopefully mith'll turn us on tonight.

Ooh baby.

Ok so we got our reads somewhat hammered out. We're 3/3 on about 5 reads, and usually end up 2/3 on the rest.

Mainly, we'll be moving our vote finally.

VOTE: Copper

We're feeling this to be the better choice at this point. They're playing in a way that seems very passive, moving to a wagon and then sitting there - similar in a way to how I viewed FES as playing - and not pushing for any support for it really, while Equinox has picked up on some attempts at chaining lynches, specifically in 1061. RayFrost has a nuller-than-null read here, which is why I'm ok with putting our vote here. Then there's the issue of the whole "almost all of the town" "leave vote on player we just insinuated was town."

The other two are interested that RayFrost's 968 got next to no attention, while RayFrost is mildly sad his posts have apparently been ignored in general.

@Copper

Please respond to "As I recall, I stopped it only once. If you can point out any other instances, that'd be great." from 969 (Equinox).

[Balam]

(Equinox)

I'm going to take a moment to elaborate here on why I believe Copper is chaining lynches.

More importantly, Balam and FES are almost certainly not scum together, so it would be foolish to lynch FES before Balam.

Copper admits in this same post that, if he were to lynch someone on individual play alone, they would lynch Frogito Ergo Sum. That to me reads like they do have a scum read on Frogito Ergo Sum. They then draw some associative tells that lead to the conclusion that Frogito Ergo Sum is a "safe mislynch" that scum are saving for later. Fair enough.

And then it's, "Well, it'd be silly to lynch Frogito Ergo Sum first, so let's lynch Balam now." What does this mean? When we flip town, it'd be silly to

not

go after Frogito Ergo Sum; Copper just said that Frogito Ergo Sum has been playing like scum and hopped off because of (unflipped) associations.

I don't know if Frogito Ergo Sum is scum. I know that the wagon on them yesterday lacked the characteristics of a wagon on scum. What I also know is that Copper is deliberately lynching someone we know to be town first, and they seem to be setting up the stage for what to do after we hang.

I can't help but feel that this accusation is an unconscious admittance from Fozni and Confusion that FES is townie. After our push on his wagon yesterday, it's certainly true that we haven't been as pro-town as those voting for scum. It feels as though we're being implicated for our efforts in securing a mislynch, before that mislynch is secured.

Fun fact: We don't have any scum flips. So... how is Copper not as pro-town "as those voting for scum"?

[Copper]

FYI: we aren't going after FES. Another FYI: IF A UB POLICY LYNCH COULD GO THROUGH, WE WOULD NOT BE HAVING THIS DISCUSSION: IT WOULD BE NIGHT OR GG OR WHATEVER. So falsehood here. Moving on.

What are you saying here? That because you couldn't secure a policy lynch on UB, obviously you weren't trying to?

How about a thought experiment. Assuming balam-town, how do you explain the fact that every single player in this game aside from balam has completely shed their suspicion of the UB player slot? It's seriously evaporated faster than water splashed onto an overheated car engine.

I don't think there was very significant suspicion of the UB player slot before today either. Certainly not enough that there is significant "evaporation" of suspicion that was once there.

---

But for me, when I think of someone being pro-town I know that it's a feeling that I get from their posts that's very difficult to fake. And you my friend are the most neutral read I've had in a long time. Even after you explained the logic behind your Balam vote, I still think you're as neutral as a 7.0 on the pH scale.

Fair enough. Generally I see "town" and "scum" applied to reads, and "pro-town" and "anti-town" as a judge of their actions (e.g, Unicorn was town but anti-town). But if you define it differently your post makes sense.

---

@Copper: Can you point to any of your questions producing information you found invaluable, which you used to really strengthen or change a read?

As mentioned in our ISO 26:

Speaking as the head who asked daSpot the questions about his other reads, I should explain my intentions. His absolutely certainty with FES-scum seemed at odds with the indecision we called him out on earlier. It smelled fabricated, like they had consciously said "make sure to act very sure about this one!"

His answers to the questions were good, though. Apparently, he sounds so sure because he really is sure about YFC and FES, despite his previous waffling. His unprompted switch to YFC, a much less likely wagon, earns him some town points. I was going to call him out on his idea that YFC-scum still looks good with an FES townflip, because after all, a townie in that situation should then think..."So why am I not voting YFC?". The fact that he DID vote YFC, unprompted, is a pleasant surprise.

It's also worth noting that many of our questions are checking our blind spots. When we think we have a scumtell, we don't like to immediately leap on it. Better to explore around it. A good example is our push on FES Day Two. We thought something was suspicious with his vote-parking, but we didn't immediately vote him for it - instead, we pushed at the issue a bit to see what would happen.

It just feels like their posts are trying to come across as sympathetic and relatable. Likeable. I've long contended that town should be willing to make enemies, and that politeness is a scumtell. They could just be nice people, but it gives me a bad feeling.

We were empathizing that Unicorn Brethern's play was intolerable, to illustrate that,

even as someone similarly frustrated

, we still stood by a Unicorn-town read. It is worth being relatable when you do, in fact, relate.

This line of argument seems to have been forgotten. Do you really see Balam-scum bothering to try to swing a wagon from a townie to another townie? Something that I've argued for plenty in recent-ish games, and been vindicated in, is that scum rarely bother to attempt to swing a wagon from townie to townie late on in a day. It's just not worth the hassle.

We did not forget the line of argument - our very last post explains the reasoning thoroughly. Gummybear-town was at probably the most suspicious they'd ever be: FES-town is unlikely to improve their quality of play and as a "anytime" mislynch. It is smart play to switch to locking in the Gummybear mislynch, express ambivalence on FES, and then switch back in LyLo.

---

unvote, vote: Copper

Explain later.

A reminder for you, Fonzi.

---

I give you FES -> GB, but what is the other? And where do you think it makes sense to run a wagon up to L-1, sit on it and push it, then start a flash-wagon on another player as scum? What scenario is this beneficial?

Day One, with a burgeoning wagon on FES, you voted for both YFC and Untrod Stranger, despite listing a preference for FES.

---

Equinox highlighted this, but hello, scumslip.

Considering we are the only ones who have even remotely expressed anything but a solid town-read on UB today, we could be the only other "member of the town" to not read him so "effortlessly."

But your vote is on us.

And I thought you were so much better than this, Copper.

You're making a mountain out of a molehill here. The simple fact is, we don't like speaking in absolutes. Yes, marching down the playerlist, we can't find another player with non-trivial suspicion of UB. But when we're writing a post, we don't take the time to analyze where every player is sitting before deciding whether or not to write an "almost." We just go off of our knowledge that there is very little support for a UB lynch, and write the sentence with a bureaucrats "almost".

I'm going to take a moment to elaborate here on why I believe Copper is chaining lynches.

On the same topic, this is an unfair argument. As opposed to speculating as to who we'd vote next, we'd imagine, on D3, you'd have concrete evidence of us "chaining lynches". Instead, you choose to speculate as to how we will react in future scenarios. You're right, you don't know if FES is scum, and neither do we. However, one of us is on record of actively subverting the FES wagon twice. It's not your being wrong that makes you scum, it's that you act on these end-of-day whims the coincide so perfectly with sparing one person.

I mean, this is evidence that anyone can look at. We're not speculating as to what you're going to be doing tomorrow (if you're alive tomorrow), but, rather, we're pointing out a direct correlation and pattern. We'd say this is significantly more substantial than "they seem to be setting up the stage [for D4]".

[Lord Fonzi]

unvote, vote: Copper

Explain later.

A reminder for you, Fonzi.

Oh, believe me, I haven't forgotten.

Also, oh look. As soon as attention switches to Copper over FD, FD starts lurking again. Who could possibly have predicted that?

[Balam]

(AGar)

Also, oh look. As soon as attention switches to Copper over FD, FD starts lurking again. Who could possibly have predicted that?

Ooh, ooh! Pick me! Pick me!

---

Day One, with a burgeoning wagon on FES, you voted for both YFC and Untrod Stranger, despite listing a preference for FES.

Highlight this explicitly.

Oh wait, you can't. To correct you on what you're getting at, we had a scum-read on YFC and FES (given in the same post, mind you) at one point on D1 that was announced, and we chose YFC. We made no indication of "preference" and we chose to pursue the avenue where we felt more information would spring from. It wasn't until D2 where we even committed to a vote on FES and declared him a top priority.

You're making a mountain out of a molehill here. The simple fact is, we don't like speaking in absolutes. Yes, marching down the playerlist, we can't find another player with non-trivial suspicion of UB. But when we're writing a post, we don't take the time to analyze where every player is sitting before deciding whether or not to write an "almost." We just go off of our knowledge that there is very little support for a UB lynch, and write the sentence with a bureaucrats "almost".

"Oh man, we slipped. How can we channel our inner Obama and make lots of words here so it looks like we have an educated response?"

On the same topic, this is an unfair argument. As opposed to speculating as to who we'd vote next, we'd imagine, on D3, you'd have concrete evidence of us "chaining lynches". Instead, you choose to speculate as to how we will react in future scenarios. You're right, you don't know if FES is scum, and neither do we. However, one of us is on record of actively subverting the FES wagon twice. It's not your being wrong that makes you scum, it's that you act on these end-of-day whims the coincide so perfectly with sparing one person.

I mean, this is evidence that anyone can look at. We're not speculating as to what you're going to be doing tomorrow (if you're alive tomorrow), but, rather, we're pointing out a direct correlation and pattern. We'd say this is significantly more substantial than "they seem to be setting up the stage [for D4]".

So in other words... don't analyze your posts for any potential motivations we might be able to glean? Gotcha, champ.

You specifically stated that there is scum between us and FES, and one is not scum with the other, so you should lynch us first. We know we'll flip town. I personally got a gut feeling that you know that too. Call it a hunch. Or a scumread, maybe. Just maybe. So, the intelligent follow-up would be to chase down your next suspicion - FES - tomorrow when we flip town, since there is scum between us and we're not that scum, y'know? This gives me a bit of a feel for trying to chain lynches, get your mislynch FIRST, then bus a buddy in LYLO for "mad town cred." Am I on the money here? Because that's kinda how I roll, being right and all.

Your mind games aren't strong enough.

[Frogito Ergo Sum]

FES, I've pretty much dropped that point for the most part already. I only keep bringing it up because you keep asking about it some more. There are other reasons I find you scummy. The hammer was just icing on the cake.

I keep bringing it up because regardless of how clearly I stack up the evidence in favour of my position, you seem incapable of ceding the point and instead respond with a "but".

Can Lord Fonzi and PC actually give their cases now? The only evidence I see arrayed against Copper are that he's avoided the spotlight (which strikes me as normal for Copper), a non-existent scumslip and the suggestion that he's trying to chain lynches by voting Balam, which strikes me as nonsensical; we do have a problem with the Balamvote but our problem lies with its uselessness; the notion that Copperscum is planning to get Balamtown lynched today and then us to win the game does not pass the sniff test.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

The other two are interested that RayFrost's 968 got next to no attention, while RayFrost is mildly sad his posts have apparently been ignored in general.

(looks back)

You mean RayFrost's case against PC in 968? I wouldn't say I ignored that. I didn't respond to it, but I agree with the case, and it's similar to the case I made against Incog.

(AGar)

Also, oh look. As soon as attention switches to Copper over FD, FD starts lurking again. Who could possibly have predicted that?

Ooh, ooh! Pick me! Pick me!

Yeah. This is how FD has gotten through the game; fought like a wildcat when attacked, then goes under the radar whenever he's not. And we're letting it work; this is why he hasn't been lynched yet.

[Lord Fonzi]

Can Lord Fonzi and PC actually give their cases now? The only evidence I see arrayed against Copper are that he's avoided the spotlight (which strikes me as normal for Copper), a non-existent scumslip and the suggestion that he's trying to chain lynches by voting Balam, which strikes me as nonsensical; we do have a problem with the Balamvote but our problem lies with its uselessness;

If you're going to use a meta defence, let's see it, because 'avoiding the spotlight' is one of those things I consider to be a prime scumtell.

In actual fact, I think I am ready to explain my change of vote there, because it's done what it needed to.

Essentially, my problem with Copper was that I had a very hard time tying them, or ruling them out as being tied to, everyone in the game. Neither their attack on Balam nor FES screamed bus, but nor did it look like the kind of attack that was especially unlikely to be one. The only slot that really made any effort to attack them, UB, I had as probtown anyway. Most people just seemed to be completely ignoring them, or as I said, just kinda lazily assuming they were protown because they sound reasonable. (That said, I do think their response to me and PC putting a little spotlight their way was really, really weird, illogical, and scummy). PC basically summed up my concerns: that they were that middle-of-the-pack slot that doesn't do anything massively scummy, but doesn't assert itself on the town very much either, and often ends up flipping scum. I don't actually buy the 'slip' thing, btw. I never think that kind of thing is particularly useful- I call it 'gotcha' scumhunting.

At the same time, FD was reacting fairly predictably to being a major wagon, with the same kind of 'How dare you wagon me' kind of outrage we saw on day one. So, when PC voted Copper, I saw the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. To force people to actually react to a bona fide Copper wagon, and to see if FD resumed coasting once the pressure was turned down a little. The answer to the latter was an emphatic yes.

As for the Copper reactions, I saw a few things. Yos came down so hard on the fence, that his colon probably has splinters. Balam showed the courage of their convictions in their Copper vote in a position that looked like it might make a Copper lynch an actually realistic prospect, which allayed my concern that Copper and Balam were distancing each other, while Balam softly supported a Yos lynch and Copper kept their noses clean by sticking with the bus. And Spot... well, Spot just came across all frustrated that Yos wasn't dead yet, which fits what I'd expect genuinely tunneling town to do. FES came out with a kind of equivocal 'Don't see the case, explain please' kind of thing that appears to be defence, but leaves open the possibility of joining the wagon later if the case is more persuasively stated.

unvote, vote: FD

[Lord Fonzi]

Also note that Fate has made a total of 22 posts in other parts of the site during the last 18 hours.

[Lord Fonzi]

Hey kids, guess who it is. Sorry I haven't made an appearance lately.

I think my other head has it pretty spot on with the FD thing. Does anyone want to defend them? They ought to at least defend themselves.

I have a problem guys. Incognito is town.

[Profane Confusion]

Fate does need to get back in here and do stuff. I still think they're very likely town - this latest bit of inactivity does illustrate a bit better what you guys were talking about though.

-~-~-~-~-~

My problems with Copper were pretty well summarized by Lord Fonzi in their 1118 there, but I'll add another point or two: I just get the feeling that Copper has been playing a very SAFE game. They've taken positions that seem reasonable on the surface, but I haven't gotten the feeling that they've really stuck their necks out to show that they actually BELIEVE in those positions that they've been talking about. For example, they keep calling different people town and the like, but they don't seem to assert that position by going out of their way to defend people that they claim to see as town or stuff like that like the way I'd expect town to. Every time they post, I feel like I'm reading the post of a politician rather than someone who's genuinely trying to find and lynch scum.

P.S. looking back, this post by Greymarble about Copper was so full of win that it needs to be brought to people's attention again:

Now this table is kind of interesting. It's the people you like to have back and forths with. Not mention in passing, but actually question and answer, scumhunt, work with.

You're a very questioning hydra. Yet you are a very SPECIFIC one.

Can we assume you question your top scum suspects? No. You've expressed suspicion of GummyBear, but your interactions are minimal. Is this for lurking? No. FES receives much more attention. Is it for frequent posting? No. I post much less frequently than Balam, but you barely talk to Balam at all. You've spent as much time questioning YFC as you have super-flake.

I'll be honest. This chart is weirding me out. You have people you like to talk to and people you don't like to talk to. It feels very, very agenda driven.

The chart he's talking about here is an interactions chart (click on the link to see it in detail). Greymarble made a really astute observation there, and I really think he was onto something.

I think we should be lynching Copper Today.

[Final Destination]

Also note that Fate has made a total of 22 posts in other parts of the site during the last 18 hours.

22? That seems low for me.

Yes, I, Fate, am the most active player on the site.


Do you want me to sit here and post every goddamn chance? Read D1, I've been inclined NOT TO DO AS MUCH, because its a fucking hydra game.

I haven't seen AGM on AIM since our last [AGM approved] Post, which I think was a good fucking week ago.

Now I'll post content every prod dodging time, I'll come in here and say WALP NO AGM SO YOU GET JUST ME every three days, but I'm not going to treat this like the rest of my games and post everytime I have something to say, because IDEALLY I'd like to run it by AGM first.

[Final Destination]

Hey kids, guess who it is. Sorry I haven't made an appearance lately.

I think my other head has it pretty spot on with the FD thing. Does anyone want to defend them? They ought to at least defend themselves.

I have a problem guys. Incognito is town.

Defend myself against what?

I have no problems with my play this game. Only the rate at which I CAN play as a hydra (making dual posts).


My FES push over US D1 I'm fine with. I regret not being able to post before UB's hammer my strong dislike of that wagon.

My FES push over Yos D2 I'm fine with. A useless player needed to die D2, and GummyBear's wagon was just as good and had more momentum, as I've already explained.

My Yos/Fonzi/Balam read D3, today, I'm fine with. Actually, to be 100% honest I was just trolling Balam while drunk again to get a read out of him. AGM and I BOTH expressed a scumread more on Copper than Balam, but we wanted to live to the next day to get him lynched (there probably won't be enough support to get Copper lynched, as you can see now with Fonzi trying to revive MY wagon while Copper is being pressured). There is also not enough of a case to be made on Copper because he is just coasting scum (via PoE as well), so his play gets scummier as each day progresses and it will be easier to lynch him.

I'm fine with my solid town reads, DaSpot, UB, and Profane Confusion. If they add me and read me as town, thats a 4 town voting block that can rape this game if we WORK THE FUCK TOGETHER. Yos->Copper->Fonzi (I switch the order now because Fonzi's vote on my while Copper is being run up REALLY will damn him after a Copper scum flip) will likely win the game.

That's all I have to say until AGM gets back.

[Profane Confusion]

Also, I'm beginning to narrow things down to PoE and here are the way my reads are beginning to shape up:

TOWN

Mastermate formerly Unicorn Brethren (I've said reasons for this a bunch of times Today).
Lord Fonzi (posting Today has been solid).
Daspot (again already mentioned before)
Final Destination (mentioned before)

Yos's explanation about FES seemed so solid that I'm even beginning to see reasons for why THEY may be town too.

For me that leaves two red flags:

Copper
Balam

Balam showed the courage of their convictions in their Copper vote in a position that looked like it might make a Copper lynch an actually realistic prospect, which allayed my concern that Copper and Balam were distancing each other, while Balam softly supported a Yos lynch and Copper kept their noses clean by sticking with the bus.

Considering some of the thoughts mentioned by one of the Balamers in the MD bussing thread, I can't say this is something we should be completely believing.