A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Eddard Stark]

The Mod's top of the page votecount's are too sexy for his shirt votecount. Wat.

Locke Lamora (1) Zdenek
Twilight Sparkle (3) hasdgfas, LynchMePls, Magua

Magua (4) Danakillsu, Benmage, Twilight Sparkle, Shadow1psc

Benmage (1) popsofctown

Not voting (1) Locke Lamora

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Deadline here. That's 24 hours for those of you who have an inabillity to click. Also I said hi mafiascum if you click the countdown timer

[LimMePls]

Unvote
Vote: Magua

[Zdenek]

Unvote
Vote Magua

[Eddard Stark]

END OF DAY VOTECOUNT
Twilight Sparkle (2) hasdgfas, Magua

Magua (6) Danakillsu, Benmage, Twilight Sparkle, Shadow1psc, LynchMePls, Zdenek

Benmage (1) popsofctown

Not voting (1) Locke Lamora

*10 players remain, 6 to lynch someone.
*Checking if anyone needs a prod
*Deadline here. That's 24 hours for those of you who have an inabillity to click. Also I said hi mafiascum if you click the countdown timer

Mod scene up when I watch Madoka. Or when I watch Madoka and write it. MADOKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

[Eddard Stark]

Changed my mind. SCENE IS NOW. REJOICE FOR THE MOD IS GOOD.

Bronn (the badass)

Magua had been chosen. As the victim. Bronn strolled out (he was still a badass, came out of a whore house btw). Magua vs Bronn. Two mighty warriors. Were about to have a sing off.

Magua began. 'I AM MAGUA. YOU DIE'. The savage barbarian apparently didn't speak anymore of the language and songs were seen as girly in his home country. Uh-oh.

Bronn coughed. He was ready. No nerves. He knew he was better.

Now this is the story all about how
Magua's life ends Imma flip him upside down
And I'd like to take a minute just sit right there
I'll tell you how I became the Pimp of a town called

Bel-air

King's Landing

In

west Philadelphia

Westeros born and raised
As a sellsword where I spent most of my days
Chilling out, maxing, relaxing all cool
Stabbing some peeps like a massive tool
When Cat and Rodrik, they were up to no good
Started making trouble in my fucking pub
I got in one little trial by combat and

my mom

Tyrion got scared
And said "Let's get the fuck out of here, and off to

Bel Air

King's Landing"

I whistled for a horse and when it came near the
The Saddle said "fresh" and it had a big massive horn
If anything I could say that this was a unicorn!
But I thought nah, forget it, yo homes to

Bel-air!

King's Landing

I pulled up to a brothel about seven or eight
And I yelled to the Unicorn "Yo, homes smell you later!"
Looked at my kingdom I was finally there
To sit on my throne as the PIMP of King's Landing

Magua took out a knife and cut his own throat. But not before telling the mod to never do that again. Bronn then flipped him upside down. He then went and got a drink.

Magua was lynched he was

Walder Frey - Lannister Aligned 1-shot vigilante

Night 6 begins. Actions within 72 hours. If I get the roles sooner I'll post night sooner.

[Eddard Stark]

Jaime

So many dead allies. Jaime walked from the palace alone. He didn't know who to trust now. He'd been unable to sleep recently. Dreams of kingslaying, dreams of that boy he'd tossed out the window. He had regrets, but there was no point in thinking about those. He'd done what he'd done and he'd live with the consequences. A Lannister always paid his debts and he was due blood.

Gregor

Gregor came from the tavern. A grunt alone parted his path. Men feared him. He needed a whore house. Or a fight.

Tommen

Tommen sat on the Iron Throne but it hurt him. He missed Margaery. She'd left him and was with the seven now. That and beets. He needed to outlaw those.

'What is it now' he asked as a guard came in to the room.

'My King I bring news, an atrocity has occured in the city' he said a look of panic on his face.

'Tell me' Tommen said curious now. Maybe someone had brought beets to the city?

'The 'Mountain that Rides', Gregor Clegane, one of our most loyal servants, is dead. But my King, your Uncle...he lays slain too. Jaime Lannister is dead' the guard cried.

Tommen fainted with grief.

Popsofctown -

Jaime Lannister - Lannister Aligned Friendly Knight

was killed night 6
Locke Lamora -

Gregor Clegage - Lannister Aligned Townie (lynchee)

was killed night 6

[Eddard Stark]

Day 7 begins.

Not voting (7) - Benmage, Danakillsu, hasdgfas, LynchMePls, Shadow1psc, Zdenek, Twilight Sparkle.

*With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch

*Deadline countdown is here.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Zdenek is Stark, but we're not lynching him today.

We need to lynch SK, not Stark today. A post explaining why is below. I was apparently wrong about who the sk was - I was SURE it was Locke - so ignore that part. But the underlying principle is still sound. I have class now (I'm actually late waiting for this damn game) so no one vote for now. When I'm back I'll look in to this. For now, read that post, everything is good except who the sk is.

No one vote yet.

Spoiler: The Post I wrote overnight

Zdenek is Stark, but we're not lynching him today.

(Note: I wrote this post assuming there were two kills overnight. If there's only one, we *should* be good lynching zdenek, but give me a chance to run the numbers for the new gamestate before doing anything please.)

Here's a scanned bit explaining my thought process. It's a bit big (1000X1373) so I'll make it a hotlink for people on phones.

For those who are on their phones or just can't understand my terrible handwriting, here's how it goes:

• The only gamestates we're gonna be left with are town wins or town kingmakers (where town loses but picks the winner.)
  
• In Kingmaker, town is free to spitefully lynch whoever they want, since their wincon is impossible.
  
• Because I am town, I am free to pledge that I am lynched in a kingmaker situation, because I have lost anyway.
  
• As SK or Stark, I am unwilling to make this pledge because it basicially guarantees I'll lose.
  
• I am making this pledge now:
  Lynch me if the towns win-condition is impossible to fulfill.
  
  
• This pledge is only sensible if I suspect I can force a gamestate where town fulfills its win-condition.
  
• I would only want to do this if I win when town fulfills it's win-condition.
  
• QED, I'm town.

Now that THAT bit is out of the way, here's why we're lynching Locke. In essence, we win as long as there's only one kill tonight. Because of this, scum and sk have every incentive to coordinate their kills and avoid overkill, before trying to secure a kingmaker win.

Lynching Locke gives us one kill a night, lynching Zdenek probably gives us two and sends us to the badtimes kingmaker.

Note that if Dana is SK, this is an auto-loss. This is a blip of probability I'm comfortable eating. If Dana is sk...just...goddamnit it.

It also fails if Zdenek is SK but he's NOT (PoE, probable nexus-block, etc).

So we lynch Locke, and then Zdenek, and if the game is still continuing we lynch LMP.

**A Locke vote was here but obviously that ain't happening now.**

If you disagree with my plan, feel free to raise objections, but I'd better not see any Zdenek votes. Right now the Starks WANT zdenek dead, because their only chance involves a double-kill tonight. LMP-Stark WANTS to bus his buddy for all he's worth. Don't let him.

-hito (but due to the time sensitivity, I posted this in QT for the first person online when the thread opens to post)

-hito

[Shadow1psc]

Yeah. You all get a huge fucking "I told you so".

[Eddard Stark]

Deadline edited in to last votecount.

[Benmage]

Zdenek today, TS tomorrow.

vote Zdenek

One killing entity gone.

Puts us at 5-1.

4-1 tomorrow.

Lynch TS.

If game doesn't end lynch LMp in lylo.

[Shadow1psc]

Zdenek today, TS tomorrow.

vote Zdenek

One killing entity gone.

Puts us at 5-1.

4-1 tomorrow.

Lynch TS.

If game doesn't end lynch LMp in lylo.

I'm calling it. LMP and Zdenek. If TS is scum, good game to them, I've never seen scum put forth the effort they have. Even for three people, the diagrams, notes, walls, entirely relevant content, and not to mention the whole morse code thing breaking the wedding open. LMP before TS.

[Benmage]

Zdenek today, TS tomorrow.

vote Zdenek

One killing entity gone.

Puts us at 5-1.

4-1 tomorrow.

Lynch TS.

If game doesn't end lynch LMp in lylo.

I'm calling it. LMP and Zdenek. If TS is scum, good game to them, I've never seen scum put forth the effort they have. Even for three people, the diagrams, notes, walls, entirely relevant content, and not to mention the whole morse code thing breaking the wedding open. LMP before TS.

Either way. Works out. LMP can go first. It doesn't matter.

[Benmage]

I'd actually rather see TS gone after zdenek.

There's 1 stark left.

So lynching lmp if town could put us into the kingmaker scenario TS is hell bent on having us declare how we'd act.

We lynch Zdenek today and that's that.

[Shadow1psc]

well yeah, Zdenek today. Though oddly enough, I think even if Zdenek were Lannister, the SK would be put in a spot where he has to try and shoot the last stark, or lose. Hear that, SK? If we lynch town, you have to shoot TS or LMP, there's no real way around it.

[LimMePls]

hito, who is your SK now that LL is dead? By your own analysis, the only SKs were you and LL, and LL is gone.

TS-scum is certain.

All of the remaining scum are in: {TS, Zdenek, dana}. Either 2 of those 3 if the Starks only have 1 left, or all three if they don't. As for SK, that's clearly not dana, as I would expect SK to not show up vanilla to rolecop. So it's TS or Zdenek as SK. Since Zdenek's play the last couple of days has practically claimed scum, I see no reason to not lynch him first.

I would vote Zdenek here, but there is no reason to rush the day. At the very least, lets let everyone check in.

[hasdgfas]

*glares at Zdenek*

[Twilight Sparkle]

There's 1 stark left.

Why are you so certain on this one? I mean, if I was sure killing Zdenek would give us one kill tonight, I'd be all over that shit. But I just can't see Zdenek as SK after that Nexus block, and I think 2 starks left is more likely than one.

Don't get lazy on me now, Ben. Take out your pencil, and actually work out the fucking endgames. Or, failing that, at least look at the scanned picture of me taking out my pencil and actually working out the fucking endgames.

hito, who is your SK now that LL is dead? By your own analysis, the only SKs were you and LL, and LL is gone.

Dana I guess? Goddamn he reads town and another inv-immune is mean to kast, but we're getting pretty bottom of the barrel for sk's here. Cow-sk would be just too goddamn bastardly, imo. Regardless I want to talk with the other heads on this one before passing any judgement.

TS-scum is certain.

And TS-Stark or TS-SK decided to derail surefire zdenek wagon and declare themselves open season in town kingmaker because...?

All of the remaining scum are in: {TS, Zdenek, dana}. Either 2 of those 3 if the Starks only have 1 left, or all three if they don't. As for SK, that's clearly not dana, as I would expect SK to not show up vanilla to rolecop. So it's TS or Zdenek as SK. Since Zdenek's play the last couple of days has practically claimed scum, I see no reason to not lynch him first.

what's extra-funny about this post is that you're probably Stark with Zdenek, but you really DO think I'm the sk.

-hito

[Benmage]

Its a stretch calling lmp stark.

Therefore we lynch zdeneck.

Because there is 1 stark left.

[LimMePls]

And TS-Stark or TS-SK decided to derail surefire zdenek wagon and declare themselves open season in town kingmaker because...?

To try and look town? Because it's highly unlikely to get you actually lynched in KM, while it might by you "look how awesome I am I must be town" points? Is this a serious question? You know you're coming into clear POE zone, and you want to try and cut that off as much as possible? For every town-TS motivation for those actions there is a scum-TS motivation for them.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Ben, I said "don't get lazy", not "be extremely lazy".

If we fuck up and lynch one of two starks, we lose. If we lynch the sk, we're pretty much guaranteed victory. NOW is the time end this shit, not to lazily float along and say "eh Zden's some anti-town faction. lynch him. whee".

I admit, there *could* be one or two Starks. There's no way to be sure. That's why I want to find SK FIRST. Then we lynch one Stark, then the other if the game is still ticking.

Looking at the list:

5) Benmage - Hand of the King - confirmed

9) Danakillsu - Tone is town, another inv-immune is mean to kast with Set being immune. But PoE makes him likely?

10) Hasdgfas - If Cow is the sk I will rage at faraday so fucking hard

11) LynchMePls - Extremely unlikely sk. Claiming the Stark kill as the sk on day two? Who the fuck does that?

14) Shadow1psc - A serial killer...who also sets the wedding tables? .-. And townie tone to boot.

15) Zdenek - Almost certainly blocked by Nexus N4. THOUGH ACTUALLY. Fuck. Set was conf. scum N4 wasn't she? Nexus might've blocked Set? I suppose Zdenek SK is possible, though that quickhammer seems much more like Stark-Zdenek keeping Stark-LMP safe.

18) Twilight Sparkle - confirmed town assuming I'm playing to my wincon, which I am.

I need to talk to Mina about this.

-

To try and look town? Because it's highly unlikely to get you actually lynched in KM, while it might by you "look how awesome I am I must be town" points? Is this a serious question? You know you're coming into clear POE zone, and you want to try and cut that off as much as possible? For every town-TS motivation for those actions there is a scum-TS motivation for them.

"It's highly unlikely to get you actually lynched in Kingmaker" is moronic. I've just erected a machine that will confirm me as town due to a clever divergance in optimal play, and you're saying it doesn't count because

the town might not follow through?

The solution to this problem is pretty straightforward: 1.) stop being dumb and 2.)

follow fucking through.

Saying that my confirmation doesn't count because "we might let you win as a potential SK or Stark" is infuriating. NO. I am creating a situation where I auto-lose as Stark or SK, so I can walk in to it and be confirmed town.

-hito

[LimMePls]

"It's highly unlikely to get you actually lynched in Kingmaker" is moronic. I've just erected a machine that will confirm me as town due to a clever divergance in optimal play, and you're saying it doesn't count because the town might not follow through? The solution to this problem is pretty straightforward: 1.) stop being dumb and 2.) follow fucking through. Saying that my confirmation doesn't count because "we might let you win as a potential SK or Stark" is infuriating. NO. I am creating a situation where I auto-lose as Stark or SK, so I can walk in to it and be confirmed town.

Ya, I should just sit back and trust everyone to blindly follow through. That's a purely optimal plan, thanks for putting my fears to rest...

[LimMePls]

I could watch this all day.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Ya, I should just sit back and trust everyone to blindly follow through. That's a purely optimal plan, thanks for putting my fears to rest...

"Hey guys, I have a special gun that only kills SK and scum. If I promise to be shot by it, I'm confirmed town! It's awesome!"

"Lol, obvscum. What happens if we don't pull the trigger?"

To which my response is: "

So promise to pull the fucking trigger!

"

Anyway, chatting with Mina. If you couldn't guess, that Locke flip fucked our reads up something fierce. Obviously, lynching Zden gets rid of a bad guy, but we lose if he's Stark with a buddy. Expect the results of our musings soonish. The short of it is that there are good reasons to believe Zdenek, Dana, and LMP aren't SK, but clearly one of them is wrong. We're endeavoring to figure out which.

-hito

[danakillsu]

There's only one Zdenek vote so far, and as I've been saying, he's one of the very few that could still be scum.

vote: Zdenek