The Mafia with the Hydras - Game Over!

[Lord Fonzi]

I don't actually have a problem with FD's claimed investigations. They're consistent with their play, and investigating someone where your gut reaction is to defend makes sense. If they're scum, you claim and get rid of them, if they're town you don't have to perform a massive 180 to defend them. If they'd investigated FD, say, then it would have been very difficult to turn around and defend them from the get-go without giving their role away.

[Profane Confusion]

Good point but I'd still like the breadcrumbs.

- Incog

[Final Destination]

[AGM]

Daspot - We've been repeatedly calling him solid town since the start of D2, despite the fact that Fate has a very ingrained hatred of Dana. In iso #40, we specifically point out that we strongly felt dana was town being framed by FES.
UB - In our VCA, we listed UB's name in green.

[Balam]

(Equinox)

I am calling this now, based on my own individual reads. If AGar or RayFrost have any reads that conflict with mine, I encourage them to simply post in the thread; we are about to be confirmed anyway. If we get lynched over Final Destination today, it is extremely likely town will be in LyLo tomorrow, and that is the time to hear from as many town heads as possible.

{Final Destination, Copper, Profane Confusion}

Unless Lord Fonzi pulled an epic bussing gambit, it is unlikely that they are scum. I continue to have a personality-based town read on DaSpotthatkillsu, based on Kcdaspot's demeanor in two past scum games, even though his pushing occasionally makes me question myself. I lean town on Mastermate for their reaction to YosFlavouredCayke's claim. The strength of these reads go from Mastermate, Lord Fonzi, to DaSpotthatkillsu.

It goes without saying that I'm pretty sure YosFlavouredCayke is town now.

It's too bad we weren't town together, Incognito. I really was looking forward to scum hunting with you, but I guess we were meant to have a rematch. This time, there is no Coach Travis to subtly buddy to endgame, so good luck.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

I have a good feeling about the way this is going.

Anyway.

FACT 1: Ether Balam or FD now must be lying scum. Their claims obviously contradict. We are now going to be lynching one or the other of them today, and if that one flips town, we lynch the other one.

FACT 2: Between the two of them, FD clearly has a lot more to gain from a fakeclaim. Heading towards a deadline, we were basically deadlocked between a wagon on me and a wagon on Fate. With Balam mostly confirming my claim, FD was almost certain to be lynched if he did nothing. Assuming Fate-scum, he would have to do something drastic at that point in order to not lose. If he could at least bring down a town power role before he goes, his scumteam would be in a much stronger position.

On the other hand, I don't see any reason for Balam to fakeclaim there. It's also consistant with the way he was demanding I claim or die on the spot, hestiated when I hinted I was a power role, and then dropped it completly when I claimed jailkeeper.

At this point, Fate-scum seems far more likely then Balam-scum. I don't understand what kind of crazy gambit Balam would have to be running for a fake-claim here to make sense. On the other hand, a desperate fakeclaim is just what I'd expect out of a cornered Fate; it's pretty much his trademark move.

[Balam]

(Equinox)

Making Unicorn Brethren green in your VCA is a pretty damn obvious crumb. "Dodging NKs," my ass.

I was thinking about how there should be a mafia roleblocker to counter the town role cop and probably town jailkeeper, and lo and behold:

ILL TAKE THAT TO MEAN YOURE A SCUM ROLEBLOCKER OR SOMESHIT, MIND CLAIMIN THAT IN THREAD>

HAHAHEEHEAHAHAHAA.

I regret that I won't get the chance to find that roleblocker, but I certainly bagged a scum... A win is a win.

Can't wait to see Greymarble's faces when we go see them again, bwahaha.

[Profane Confusion]

Can Balam point out where Final Destination hinted they had a power role? I'm looking back, and I can't find it.

I've discussed this with smargaret and the thing we're thinking is this: Final Destination wasn't really forced into claiming a PR at this point just because of Balam's claim. I don't see the soft-claims that Balam is talking about; if they can be pointed out that would be appreciated otherwise, I can't really see why a hypo Final Destination-scum would have been unable to claim Vanilla right now in line with a hypo Balam-town's claim. Whereas what they've done now (i.e. claim Cop in the face of someone claiming to have role-based info that they're not a PR) doesn't really make all that much sense coming from scum because they wouldn't be able to get away with it for too long.

The breadcrumbs that Final Destination pointed out also seem to check out from what I could see.

-~-~-~

Weirdly though, Balam's claim doesn't really seem to make all that much sense coming from scum either to me at least; smargaret seems to think otherwise.

I don't really know what to believe here.

- Incog

[Lord Fonzi]

I think I agree with the above. There seems to be stronger motivation to fake on the part of FD, who were pretty much certainly going down if they didn't do something spectacular, than Balam, since there were pretty good odds of FD being lynched anyway when he claimed.

If we lynch Fate and he's town, then the worst that can happen is the game goes to endgame, because I can't see for the life of me why scum Balam would pull that gambit to save a town Yos.

If we lynch Balam and he's town, the situation is much worse, because we aren't then handed two scum and two confirmed innocents (as I type this the possibility of there being a godfather enters my head. Humph). Nonetheless, I think it's both more likely Fate is the scum here, and town's also in a better position if we're wrong that way, than if we go for Balam and he flips town: in that scenario, scum get an extra day of LyLo.

Vote: Final Destination

[Balam]

(Equinox)

Anything to help the bus move along...

The role of the vanilla is to draw NKs away from power roles. I know Fate doesn't shy away from that; I have seen him get killed fairly early in games, and that is for his balls-to-the-wall style of play that we all know and love. If you play to survive as vanilla, you are doing it wrong.

Any disagreements so far? Good.

I will play to avoid NKs if it is the interest of my win con to do so.

[Lord Fonzi]

Your point is moot at best, Balam, since he's not claiming to be vanilla. It does make sense for a cop to lie low.

I'm now pondering a conspiracy theory by which scum Balam claims to cause a Fate lynch, in the knowledge that after a Fate town flip, Balam will die himself, but Yos as town would be so closely tied to him that scum were pretty much nailed-on to win anyway.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

I've discussed this with smargaret and the thing we're thinking is this: Final Destination wasn't really forced into claiming a PR at this point just because of Balam's claim.

Lol.

Balam's claim, if uncountered, meant I was not going to get lynched today. You will admit that, right?

If I was not going to be lynched today, there's a 95% chance that Fate was. He was in trouble anyway even before Balam claimed, his only hope of survival was to get me lynched instead of him since the odds of a third wagon coming up out of nowhere this close to deadline is quite low.

Fate knew this. He had to do something drastic, some kind of fakeclaim, or die.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

Your point is moot at best, Balam, since he's not claiming to be vanilla. It does make sense for a cop to lie low.

I'm now pondering a conspiracy theory by which scum Balam claims to cause a Fate lynch, in the knowledge that after a Fate town flip, Balam will die himself, but Yos as town would be so closely tied to him that scum were pretty much nailed-on to win anyway.

That seems unnecessarily risky. Balam was already the swing voter; he was already likely to decide if I got lynched or if Fate got lynched himself even before he claimed. If he wanted me dead, he could have hammered me, and if he wanted Fate dead, he could have just left his vote there and kept Fate at lynch -1. For that matter, in your hypothetical situation (Balam scum, Fate town, Yos town), Balam-scum would probably have been able to lynch one of (Yos/Fate) today, and lynch the other tomorrow, pretty easily, without needing any kind of claim at all to do so.

[Profane Confusion]

As Incog said, I believe FD over Balam. However, I think we should lynch YFC today - I don't see the reason for scumBalam to pull that for a townYFC, so I think they have the same alignment. It's better to get rid of a roleblocker than an unknown mafia power role here because then scum are forced to either kill FD (deciding tomorrow's lynch for us) or let him investigate (giving us another night's results should he flip town).

Fonzi, the only way that works is if Balam really is a rolecop. This isn't out of the realm of possibility, but we'll know if that's the case as soon as Balam flips, and I don't see why he'd try to draw a claim from FD in a way that outs him as scum when he could have used his real target from either night instead, especially given how much suspicion FD was under.
- smarg

[Incognito]

Posting on here because smarg is on PC...

Yos, you probably wouldn't have been lynched, correct, but I can't say I agree with your 95% chance thing on Fate. I don't think I would have voted Final Destination if they claimed Vanilla because I still had then down as town; I can't really see why it would be unlikely that a wagon wouldn't have been able to crop up on someone completely new who is not you or FD. The deadline isn't as close as you're making it out to be.

- Incog

[Lord Fonzi]

Your point is moot at best, Balam, since he's not claiming to be vanilla. It does make sense for a cop to lie low.

I'm now pondering a conspiracy theory by which scum Balam claims to cause a Fate lynch, in the knowledge that after a Fate town flip, Balam will die himself, but Yos as town would be so closely tied to him that scum were pretty much nailed-on to win anyway.

That seems unnecessarily risky. Balam was already the swing voter; he was already likely to decide if I got lynched or if Fate got lynched himself even before he claimed. If he wanted me dead, he could have hammered me, and if he wanted Fate dead, he could have just left his vote there and kept Fate at lynch -1. For that matter, in your hypothetical situation (Balam scum, Fate town, Yos town), Balam-scum would probably have been able to lynch one of (Yos/Fate) today, and lynch the other tomorrow, pretty easily, without needing any kind of claim at all to do so.

If that's true, about Balam essentially holding the lynch in his hands, then why does he need to claim at all?

[Balam]

(Equinox)

I just remembered I forgot Frogito Ergo Sum entirely. That should sum up my view of that slot.

It's apparent now that we have a scum team that does not like to bus too hard. I am actually unfamiliar with Cogito Ergo Sum's and Shanba's meta in this regard, so I can't say anything about them. What I will say, though, is that my earlier analysis of their wagon leading to my belief that they were not scum isn't as strong as I'd initially thought.

tl;dr: Null, leaning ever so slightly town due to my strong belief that Copper and Profane Confusion are scum.

Your point is moot at best, Balam, since he's not claiming to be vanilla. It does make sense for a cop to lie low.

That's exactly what I'm saying. Profane Confusion wanted to know where they were softclaiming a power role, which led us to fish for a claim from Final Destination.

I'm now pondering a conspiracy theory by which scum Balam claims to cause a Fate lynch, in the knowledge that after a Fate town flip, Balam will die himself, but Yos as town would be so closely tied to him that scum were pretty much nailed-on to win anyway.

If only I were scum! I'd love to pull that sort of gambit.

As Incog said, I believe FD over Balam. However, I think we should lynch YFC today - I don't see the reason for scumBalam to pull that for a townYFC, so I think they have the same alignment. It's better to get rid of a roleblocker than an unknown mafia power role here because then scum are forced to either kill FD (deciding tomorrow's lynch for us) or let him investigate (giving us another night's results should he flip town).

Final Destination should have just claimed vanilla and let this whole thing die because we'd have left them alone, and Profane Confusion wouldn't have had to out themselves. If you're going to bus,

bus

.

Posting on here because smarg is on PC...

Two people can be logged in at the same time. RayFrost and I were simulposting with you that one night.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

As Incog said, I believe FD over Balam. However, I think we should lynch YFC today - I don't see the reason for scumBalam to pull that for a townYFC, so I think they have the same alignment. It's better to get rid of a roleblocker than an unknown mafia power role here because then scum are forced to either kill FD (deciding tomorrow's lynch for us) or let him investigate (giving us another night's results should he flip town).

Let's be serious here. Do you really think that it's at all likely that if Balam and me were scum together, that Balam, who was under almost no suspicion, would fakeclaim out of the blue in order to try and save me, who's been under attack all game? Especially the idea that he would do so in such a dramatic way, leaving himself as confirmed scum if I die and flip anything other then bus driver, is pretty absurd. If he had any sense at all, in that situation, he would have just bussed me.

Your hydra really seems to be getting desperate in trying to find excuses to keep voting me.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

Your point is moot at best, Balam, since he's not claiming to be vanilla. It does make sense for a cop to lie low.

I'm now pondering a conspiracy theory by which scum Balam claims to cause a Fate lynch, in the knowledge that after a Fate town flip, Balam will die himself, but Yos as town would be so closely tied to him that scum were pretty much nailed-on to win anyway.

That seems unnecessarily risky. Balam was already the swing voter; he was already likely to decide if I got lynched or if Fate got lynched himself even before he claimed. If he wanted me dead, he could have hammered me, and if he wanted Fate dead, he could have just left his vote there and kept Fate at lynch -1. For that matter, in your hypothetical situation (Balam scum, Fate town, Yos town), Balam-scum would probably have been able to lynch one of (Yos/Fate) today, and lynch the other tomorrow, pretty easily, without needing any kind of claim at all to do so.

If that's true, about Balam essentially holding the lynch in his hands, then why does he need to claim at all?

Fair question. I'm not sure he did need to claim; he probably could have gotten Fate lynched without doing so, if he wanted to. That being said, getting out the information that I was telling the truth about my claim, and doing it before the end of the day, probably seemed worth the risk at this point.

[Lord Fonzi]

Fonzi, the only way that works is if Balam really is a rolecop. This isn't out of the realm of possibility, but we'll know if that's the case as soon as Balam flips, and I don't see why he'd try to draw a claim from FD in a way that outs him as scum when he could have used his real target from either night instead, especially given how much suspicion FD was under.
- smarg

Why does it require Balam-cop? Yos had already claimed in the thread. Claim FD is vanilla, if you're right you appear to be confirmed, if you're wrong, it sets up a 1-1 that you can probably win.

[Equinox]

(Equinox)

leaving himself as confirmed scum if I die and flip anything other then bus driver, is pretty absurd

...what?

[Balam]

(Equinox)

leaving himself as confirmed scum if I die and flip anything other then bus driver, is pretty absurd

...what?

[Lord Fonzi]

Yos pretty clearly meant Jailkeeper.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

Yes, I meant jailkeeper. I blame mastermind for getting those two mixed up in my head, lol.

[Balam]

(AGar)

And no I'm not claiming. It's going to take a final scum bag (Copper) coming out of the bushes and pushing for my lynch before I cave to this bullshit, ESPECIALLY when Yos scum is in our sights.

This is a soft-claim in my eyes.

---

Dear FailedDesparation,

In your so convenient breadcrumb, you forgot one thing - you only list Unicorn as town in two votecounts. Out of 7.

- AGar

---

As Incog said, I believe FD over Balam. However, I think we should lynch YFC today - I don't see the reason for scumBalam to pull that for a townYFC, so I think they have the same alignment. It's better to get rid of a roleblocker than an unknown mafia power role here because then scum are forced to either kill FD (deciding tomorrow's lynch for us) or let him investigate (giving us another night's results should he flip town).

Oooh, sorry.

This is what we call a really bad scumpost.

We're in a 1:1 right now. FD is lying. Or we're lying.

The lynches are between us right now.

You can't choose YFC.

[Balam]

(AGar)

Also, FD, in your VCA, why is Kcda not shown as green at all? Since they were your N1 investigation?