Newbie 04 - Game Over

[Yggdrasil]

Wohoo, the game finally starts!

Anwyay, I'll refrain from voting until someone does something suspicious. With only 4 to lynch a runaway random bandwaggon (esp with a bunch of newbies) could probably become fairly dangerous.

[Yggdrasil]

Just to make things interesting,

vote: tehgood

just_nigel, afterall, replaced our inactive player and allowed our mafia game to (finally start).

[Yggdrasil]

Oops, didn't realize tehgood already had two votes on him,

unvote: tehgood

My bad

[Yggdrasil]

I think we should have some more discussion before lynching someone today. I think we can only afford to lynch 2 townies before we lose, so quickly lynching a townie today would be very bad for us, leaving us with a very difficult sittuation on day 2. We would have very little day 1 discussion to go on, and we would have to make a correct lynch.

Now, since there seems to be a lack of posting by Someone, I looked at his posts in newbie mafia 5. He seems almost too eager to lynch especially with so little discussion and so much on the line. As one who has more posts than our moderatior, I'd assume he'd know that roleclaims are highly ineffective in vanilla mafia games such as this and can hurt the town if it reveals the doctor.

So, I'll

vote: Someone

and remind you how ineffective role claims to defend yourself are if you're town.

[Yggdrasil]

Okay, since we have a deadline comming up, I'll just roleclaim now as the

cop

. I am not a mafia, so you can stop voting for me now.

Right now, I'm most inclined to lynch tehgood. Upon further thought, Someone's explanation is good enough for me, so I'll

unvote: Someone

. I'll hold off my vote until we get further information/we get closer to the deadline.

[Yggdrasil]

Assuming this newbie mafia is structured the same as the other newbie mafias, there should be a doc in the game. But, as the game began during the day, I have not yet been able to investigate anyone.

Also, I'll agree that the deadline needs to be extended at least until a couple days after New Years.

[Yggdrasil]

I think going with a lynch today is definitely the best choice. No lynch, will leave us with 4 townies and two mafia tomorrow. This is a sittuation where lynching a townie would result in a town loss (leaving 2 townies and 2 mafia on day 3).

So, I think the best choice would be to lynch tehgood today. He claimed townie and, in this game, mafia are definitely going to claim townie. So, there are 5 possible people who would claim townie (2 mafia + 3 townies), leaving us with a 40% chance that tehgood is mafia. If not, at least we don't lose a cop or doc.

So,

vote: tehgood

.

[Yggdrasil]

Damnit, just my luck. Last night I investigated Sugar, but that gives us no extra information as she was just killed tonight.

Right now, I find Phoebus most suspicious.

Unvote: Just_nigel

Shall we just put this game in the freezer till New Year's?

With a majority of people missing, discussion has all but dried up...
It's so sad to come to Rome every day just to find no or just a couple new posts...

~Phoebus~

With a deadline fast aproaching and no one with the necessary number of votes, unvoting seems like a very scummy thing to do. Especially because just_nigel was 1 vote away from the 3 necessary to lynch at the deadline. At this point the vote count was:

just_nigel - 2 (Phoebus, tehgood)
tehgood - 2 (Spoon, just_nigel)

So, unvoting just_nigel seems like a good way to get tehgood lynched, without explicitly saying so. Perhaps just_nigel and Phoebus are our mafia group.

Hmm.
This is a rather awkward situation.

Do we really want to go into night without a lynch?
People seem to advocate against it on other parts of this board.
On the other hand, it might be useful by potentially adding another day/night cycle to the game...thus giving us more time to find scum?
With a seven player game, if we get a townie today...tomorrow would be do-or-die. Possibly excellent conditions for the mafia to win?

Here he does not recognize that a no lynch will mean that in day 2 we would either have to no lynch or lynch a mafia in order to stay alive. This is no better than the do-or-die position that we are in now. This post could be construed as trying to suggest no lynch, without doing so in a suspicious way.

So, I'll

FOS: Phoebus

and

mini FOS: just_nigel

. Note that we

should not

be voting now because with 3 to lynch and two mafia left, a wrong vote by a townie could cost us the game.

[Yggdrasil]

Well, it seems Spoon's last post in mafiascum was Tue Jan 06, 2004 6:18 am. He's probably inactive, so I would want to wait for a him to come back/be replacement before going after him.

Werebear

: a clarification please. Will the day end after the deadline, or is the deadline just there to get replacements?

[Yggdrasil]

*attempt to start up more conversation*

Okay, here's my analysis of the game so far:

p.1
Spoon random votes tehgood - this could mean that he is scum since he random voted a confirmed townie, but this doesn't really make a strong case against him.
just_nigel votes tehgood - its understandable as a vote in self-defense, so no real anti-town points there

p.2
in this post:

OK with one day left we basically have to decide if a random lynch or a no lynch is better. With 6 possibilities we have a 2/6 or a 1/3 chance of catching a baddie. If no lynch we'll have 5 people left to choose from. I'm not sure what to do. Sugar?

Someone does not recognize that a no lynch would be very bad for the town. The wording of his post (which looks only at the probabilities of catching a scum) makes no lynch sound like a better idea that random lynching day 1, which defintiely makes him more suspicious to me.

p.3
Phoebus posts this:

The problem is...whatever games I've played with tehgood or ones I've followed with him in it...he seems to appear scummy and turn up to be townie too many times. I guess I was afraid of meta gaming too much. It wouldn't be too helpful in a newbie game anyways. And well according to the law of averages...he is up to be scum somewhere. I hesitated because I did not want a scum tag for casting lynching vote on a townie. In the end, I guess I meta-gamed anyways!

to defend tehgood after-the-fact. This seems like he's trying to cast suspicion away from himself. This post doesn't really add anything to the discussion and it serves only to criticize the others for voting for tehgood.

As for the actual voting for day 1:

tehgood 3 (Spoon, Just_nigel, Yggdrasil)
Just_nigel 1 (tehgood)
Spoon 1 (Sugar)
Not voting 3 (Phoebus, Someone)

I would give some slight pro-town points to those who did not vote for tehgood, because it would have been easy to justify putting the 3rd/4th vote on tehgood. However, those pro-town points turn to suspiciouns if a no lynch would have been better for the mafia (which it might have, any thoughts?).


Anyway, I still find Phoebus most suspicious. What I would have seen as more responsible voting would have been to leave the vote on just_nigel. With an upcomming deadline, getting enough votes is very hard. In those sittuations, the best option is to vote for the person with the most votes. By unvoting, Phoebus made any attempt to lynch just_nigel very hard as it would have required two people to vote for him in just a couple days. If just_nigel and Spoon had been "responsible" with their votes, as Phoebus suggested, it is likely there would have been no lynch day 1.

But I will point out that Spoon hasn't really posted much with any substance yet. This could mean he's a scum reluctant to say anything that might incriminate him. But, as he is inactive, there's not much we can do about that.

[Yggdrasil]

Please don't vote, Spoon. As there are two mafia left and a lynch requires only three votes, if a townie votes an innocent, the two mafia can easily vote for that person and win.

However, that's assuming you're innocent

[Yggdrasil]

What are your thoughts about Phoebus, just_nigel? In my mind, I find it somewhat unlikely that Someone is mafia despite some of the scummy actions he's made, but I'd like to hear why you think he is your "number one" suspicion.

Also, it would be helpful for Someone and Spoon to post their suspicions.

[Yggdrasil]

We have yet to hear anything significant from Spoon. I would like to hear something more than "I have no idea what is going on" from him before proceeding.

[Yggdrasil]

You know, this game has gone on long enough now. The way I see it, I have a 2/3 chance of lynching a mafia tonight. I think Someone is most likely town. Why? He accidentally started playing in mafia 5. If he were mafia, he would have noticed that his fellow mafia was not in the game and come back here. So, despite all his somewhat scummy actions, I think he's town.

That said, just_nigel becomes very suspicious in my eyes. If I were mafia, I would do exactly what he is doing. He starts agreeing with the only confimed innocent in town, saying that he will vote with me. As I seem to be the main person throwing around accusations, being on my good side would definitely benefit him. Furthermore, he seems more eager to vote for Someone (whom I think is town) than Phoebus (whom I think is mafia). Even though he said he would vote for Phoebus, it would be better to do that and sacrifice your fellow mafia in order to look like a townie tomorrow.

Therefore,

vote: just_nigel

. Still want to vote in a block with me, now?

[Yggdrasil]

Actually, based on your post, I don't think you're scum anymore, though I'm curious as to how secret conversations would help townies. That said, I'll

unvote: just_nigel

and I need to think a bit before placing my vote again.

[Yggdrasil]

Because Phoebus has not yet convinced me of his innocence, I will vote: Phoebus. Hopefully I have the right person or else the game could be over.

[Yggdrasil]

Yeah, why not:

vote: Phoebus

Although I'm not so sure of Someone's innocence anymore. Because, if Phoebus and either he or just_nigel were innocent, then the last mafia would not have put the last vote on by now. That's because the last mafia would be Spoon, who has not posted since Jan 12.

[Yggdrasil]

Gj, Someone. I have one question though:

Was posting in Mafia 5 a ploy to make you seem innocent? You were the most scummy to me throughout the whole game, but I was almost positive you were town since a mafia would undoubtedly notice that his mafia partner was missing if he were posting in the wrong game.

Also, good job to Just_nigel for convincing me that he was town. Too bad you made the wrong choice at the end (but I would have voted Smoke_bandit also).