The Mafia with the Hydras - Game Over!

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

let me sleep on this...

[Copper]

I, personally, have never seen a scum Jailkeeper. I have heard of a scum Role Cop, however.

YosCayke, is there any reason you're choosing to assume that Balam is on the up and up from his results? Did you already answer this somewhere in this mess of the past few pages?

I feel like we can plan this lynch out a little better. There's been a bit too much spam and not quite enough rational discussion here. We have three supposed power roles, all, of course, claiming to be town aligned. A Tracker, Role Cop, and a Jailkeeper, right? Not implausible by any stretch of the imagination. I'm still having trouble understanding exactly what happened between DaSpot and YosCayke though. YosCayke locked up DaSpot during both previous nights? Otherwise, FES, will you confirm DaSpot's allegation?

[Balam]

(Equinox)

I've always thought role cop was more of a scum role.

Copper, there have been four* power role claims; you've left out Final Destination's cop counterclaim. I'm not sure what you mean by "we can plan this lynch out a little better"; it's a case of one cop counterclaiming the other, so any movement to lynch outside of the cop pair is silly and potentially very damaging to town.

[Balam]

(Equinox)

let me sleep on this...

You cannot push a YosFlavouredCayke lynch:

Balam claimed role cop with a jailkeeper result on YosFlavouredCayke on Night 1 and

vanilla result on Final Destination Night 2.
Final Destination counterclaimed alignment cop

with an innocent result on DaSpotthatkillsu on Night 1 and innocent result on Unicorn Brethren on Night 2.

One of us is lying, and in this instance lying is a 100% scum tell.

Additionally, when either Balam or Final Destination get lynched, YosFlavouredCayke's alignment and role will become crystal clear. You want that flip? You might as well cooperate.

---

I really can't believe Spot is scum here. There's no advantage to the scum team in having their third member suicide now that Fate and PC have been caught. I don't think he could be that foolish. Something is going on here.

On the other hand, I don't think the scum predicted that something like this would happen. They prepared for a possible cop investigation, which is why Final Destination had crumbs lined up for an alignment cop claim, but today has drawn so many connections that we have essentially cleared half of the living players. That could have pushed scum into panic mode. I can see Kcdaspot-scum impulsively claiming in an effort to WIFOM himself out of being lynched or to get you lynched. You getting lynched today puts town in a worse position coming into LyLo than the scenario where either of the cops get lynched.

The reason I have this doubt is we have Kcdaspot on record saying:

That is odd.. he said no result TO BOTH and then revised it to "no visit"

TheButtonmen should be aware that these two things are drastically different, especially in a game with a jailkeeper and possibly a roleblocker. If we are looking at a moderator error, we'll have to sort out whether or not TheButtonmen is the type of moderator who would retroactively fix something like this; the fix pretty much outs information about a closed setup. (Yeah, modWIFOM sucks.)

I don't think you were targeted by a roleblocker, YosFlavouredCayke; DaSpotthatkillsu's results match your claimed actions, so that's not what's going on here.

there is no difference in text if either i was blocked or not...

This then begs the question: If there is no difference, why did TheButtonmen feel the need to go back send revised PMs?

In addition, assuming both DaSpot and YosFlavouredCayke are telling the truth about their roles, I'm pretty sure we can coordinate their Night actions much better right here right now in order to get the most information from them as possible especially if the correct scum is lynched Today.

Surprisingly enough, I actually agree with Incognito here. What I recommend, though, is that you don't start going into tunnels of "Assuming XXX is scum" because if you are wrong, you will be screwed. Have a contingency plan.

I'd prefer it if the slots not in question worked on this: Frogito Ergo Sum, Lord Fonzi, and Mastermate. At the very least, these three and YosFlavouredCayke should set up a town alliance. Including Balam and Final Destination would merely introduce distractions and a lot of shitposting.

We have three informational roles going into Night 3 (2 if Balam gets lynched, but etc.), so we will have at least something if we work it out right.

---

Right now I'm not so sure of either of the two scum teams I proposed, given Kcdaspot's claim. What I do know, however, is that we're 3 for 4 in {Copper, DaSpotthatkillsu, Final Destination, Profane Confusion}, which is pretty damn good odds.

[YosFlavouredCayke]

I, personally, have never seen a scum Jailkeeper. I have heard of a scum Role Cop, however.

YosCayke, is there any reason you're choosing to assume that Balam is on the up and up from his results? Did you already answer this somewhere in this mess of the past few pages?

(nods) That is still possible here, in theory. That's why I kept saying "Balam is 100% confimed to be a rolecop", not that he was confirmed to be town.

In practice, I don't see that as a realistic possibility here. If you can come up with a plausible reason a scum rolecop would act like Balam has, (breadcrumb my role, then pressure me to claim, then back off rather then lynch me, then claim) I'd like to hear it. From my point of view, it dosn't make sense for hypo-Balam-scum-rolecop to act like this if Fate is town or if Fate is scum.

I feel like we can plan this lynch out a little better. There's been a bit too much spam and not quite enough rational discussion here. We have three supposed power roles, all, of course, claiming to be town aligned. A Tracker, Role Cop, and a Jailkeeper, right? Not implausible by any stretch of the imagination. I'm still having trouble understanding exactly what happened between DaSpot and YosCayke though. YosCayke locked up DaSpot during both previous nights? Otherwise, FES, will you confirm DaSpot's allegation?

No. Night 1, I blocked Beaver, night 2, I blocked DaSpot. Spot is claiming that night 1 he tracked FES, and night 2, he attempted to track me.

DaSpot said he targeted me night 2 and got a result that the mod has now confirmed is ambiguous, but is entirely consistent with the possibility that he was roleblocked last night (he got "no result" both times, which the mod has confirmed could either mean that his target didn't go anywhere or that Spot was roleblocked). That's not unusual, a lot of mods give trackers results that are ambiguous like that, there was just recently a MD thread on the subject. There is no contradiction between my claim and Spot's.

[Mastermate]

Fun times.

Despite Danaspots claim (which I believe to be legitimate), I think the lynch is between Balam and FD. I don't really think the claim itself tells us anything, despite the fact it kind of looks like it does.

Belams claim's also fine as that breadcrumbs pretty good and his behaviours been pretty town too. I don't think Belam is running cover on his scumbuddy Yos. FD's claim looks a lot like bollocks made up under pressure.

[/Not Mastermate Approved]

[Lord Fonzi]

DaSpot said he targeted me night 2 and got a result that the mod has now confirmed is ambiguous, but is entirely consistent with the possibility that he was roleblocked last night (he got "no result" both times, which the mod has confirmed could either mean that his target didn't go anywhere or that Spot was roleblocked). That's not unusual, a lot of mods give trackers results that are ambiguous like that, there was just recently a MD thread on the subject. There is no contradiction between my claim and Spot's.

There is however, virtually zero possibility that all four are telling the truth (unbalanced) and there's a direct contradiction between two of them. Balam is right, voting Yos here makes no sense regardless of who you think is the liar out of Balam and FD.

[Mastermate]

Yep. Even if you think Yos is scum it's pretty much impossible for one of Balam and FD to not also be scum so pick from that pool instead of unnecessarily widening it.

W/regards to targetting Yos/Dana I think it's a pretty poor idea. Both are roles that rely on the target actually doing the kill and if we make either of their targets known then they lose their effectiveness because scum can juggle their kills giving it to the guy who isn't targeted.

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

Okay, guys, if I'm right, it's not lylo. We might have a jailkeeper, we definitely have two investigative roles. Lets tell the JK to get on a scummy player, use our investigations on somewhat less scummy players, and hopefully we get something important. Meanwhile, we lynch the player who will get us the most information: Final Destination. I know that's coming out of the blue from this mostly spamming slot, but can anybody find a major problem with that strategy?
Yeah, you know who this is and apparently I missed some important stuff...

[Lord Fonzi]

Well, there's the fact that if we lynch wrong, we lose one of the two investigators. It's not so much that FD gives most info, as he has the lowest downside.

Has the issue with the tracker and potential roleblocking been cleared up to everyone's satisfaction? If so we should be good to go.

[danakillsu]

Well, there's the fact that if we lynch wrong, we lose one of the two investigators. It's not so much that FD gives most info, as he has the lowest downside.

Has the issue with the tracker and potential roleblocking been cleared up to everyone's satisfaction? If so we should be good to go.

True, didn't think of that side of things. But if FD is scum, YFC ISN'T, right? So YFC won't roleblock us, and we will have one guaranteed investigation result as long as YFC doesn't target the same people we do. We can make sure that doesn't happen by selecting different fields of targets (for example we will target A B or C and they will target D E or F).

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

Well, there's the fact that if we lynch wrong, we lose one of the two investigators. It's not so much that FD gives most info, as he has the lowest downside.

Has the issue with the tracker and potential roleblocking been cleared up to everyone's satisfaction? If so we should be good to go.

True, didn't think of that side of things. But if FD is scum, YFC ISN'T, right? So YFC won't roleblock us, and we will have one guaranteed investigation result as long as YFC doesn't target the same people we do. We can make sure that doesn't happen by selecting different fields of targets (for example we will target A B or C and they will target D E or F).

SOOOOO close to getting through this game without doing that.

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

I agree with my partner.

lets do this.

VOTE: Final Destination I'm sorry fate and AGM but they make too much sense.

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

also: L-1.

[Lord Fonzi]

I will hammer in approximately three hour's time.

I just thought of something. Cop-tracker-JK seems balanced. So does RC-tracker-JK. Take away that Jailkeeper, though, and the game doesn't seem balanced to me, unless town has another power role still hiding. So if Fate were to flip town, then a massclaim the day after we lynch Balam ought to either exonerate Yos, or set up another effective 1-1.

[Profane Confusion]

On further thought, that whole thing with possibly coordinating Night actions right now in the thread probably won't work as well as I initially thought it would. Even if we do lynch the correct scum Today, if we're dealing with 3 scum total, that'd still leave us with 2 scum left alive so a coordinating kind of thing wouldn't work too well at this time. It'd probably work better in a situation where there's only 1 scum left.

I'm pretty torn about this whole thing because if I was wrong about all of these people then I'm going to have to swallow a lot of my pride and have to take look at this game from a completely different angle. That whole David Lynch thing is going to make me lol really hard if I was actually protecting the completely wrong guy from a lynch after all. A lot of things at this point really are pointing to Balam's claim being more truthful; that song breadcrumb, Yos' claim... it all seems to match up. Whereas the only real defense that I can think of for FD's behalf was that I thought he was town all along and that whole thing about how I didn't think FD actually *had* to claim Cop there and could've easily claimed Vanilla instead. That's kind of tossed though since it was AGM who did the claim; if he didn't read a possible Fate-scum's posts before claiming, he could have thought Fate fake soft-claimed much harder than he actually did and could have just blurted out the potential fake-claim anyway since it would have been something they were working on all along (due to the breadcrumbs).

Either way, I don't object to Lord Fonzi laying down the hammer in 3 hour's time. At this point I just want some resolution.

[Profane Confusion]

And that was me.

- Incog.

[Copper]

I think a Balam lynch would be far more productive at this juncture.

For one thing, there's the actions of the players. We've already mentioned the scumtells coming from Balam, and the potential links between them and YossarianFlavoredCayke as scumbuddies. Let's not forget how cavalier Yosarrian was when threatened with a Balam "hammer". And, for that matter, let's not forget the insincere fury that seemed to come out of nowhere. Balam said that they simply did NO setup speculation, and that is why they considered that a mafia jailkeeper could be in the game. But compare that hypothesis - that Balam investigated Yosarrian, didn't stop to think about what protective roles in a one-killing-faction game meant, suddenly got EXTREMELY focused on getting a claim - to this much simpler one: it was a pageant, scripted in the QT the night before ("Do this if my wagon gets too big") and put on for us today.

But more than that, lets look at the players themselves. FinalDestination as scum; Balam and YosarrianFlavoredCayke as town? You're prepared to lynch off of this speculation, daspot?

I think it's also worth pointing out looking at the claim progression. Yossarian gets to L-1, Balam immediately takes up the role of hammer-keeper and charges them for a claim. Yossarrian draws out the moment for all he's worth (he can't look too easy about it; and anyway, he's in no real danger) before claiming JK. The game stutters around for a bit. Then, we come in expressing that we will lynch Yossarian at deadline over FD, but would much prefer a Balam lynch. Balam meanwhile is fishing as hard as they can for FD's alignment, but he's not budging. Crucially, Balam isn't asking for FD's full alignment, just "were you softclaiming?" This is something extremely important to know if you intend to fakeclaim a vanilla result.

Then, with YFC the most serious threat of lynch, Balam claims rolecop with a "confirmed" result on YFC and a vanilla on FD. This saves YFC from lynch AND hampers any potential Fate fake-claims. Balam took a gamble that FD was vanilla, hoping they correctly interpreted his reaction to the accusations of softclaiming as a vanilla tell. And he immediately -

immediately

- claims Cop.

We have two options here. Either FD, as scum, decided to force a 1:1 trade, and to do so immediately without consulting his partner. A Balam townflip would absolutely confirm him as lying scum. A 1:1 trade, particularly if the game is a mislynch away from LyLO - which this game almost certainty is - isn't as optimal for scum as seeking a perfect game.

But Balam? Balam was not willingly walking into this 1:1 trade. From the perspective of Balam-scum, as long as they were right on the gambit of FD-vanilla, an FD flip does NOT confirm them as lying. Then tomorrow, they need only fake a guilty to win the game. FinalDestination, though, swiftly gave a counterclaim that utterly forces a situation where one or the other is lying.

Do we really think that FinalDestination is the one lying, and Balam is the one telling the truth? If you were the third member of a scumteam with Balam and YossarrianFlavoredCayke, is there any plan you'd suggest that could work better than this for securing a perfect game when at least one scum teammember is under intense scrutiny?

[Final Destination]

I agree with my partner.

lets do this.

VOTE: Final Destination I'm sorry fate and AGM but they make too much sense.

No. Don't you fucking "I"M SORRY ME."

I've been respecting your play this whole time, and even your reads, and now you pull THIS SHIT?


Why? Because of role claims and speculation?

YOS IS SCUM ROLEBLOCKER AND HE BLOCKED YOU AND YOU KNOW THAT.


"Lynching for the most information" what kind of HORSESHIT IS THIS.

How about we lynch SCUM so we don't have our heads up our ass at LyLo 4:3, which scum are ALWAYS favored in?

[Final Destination]

Fun times.

Despite Danaspots claim (which I believe to be legitimate), I think the lynch is between Balam and FD. I don't really think the claim itself tells us anything, despite the fact it kind of looks like it does.

Belams claim's also fine as that breadcrumbs pretty good and his behaviours been pretty town too. I don't think Belam is running cover on his scumbuddy Yos. FD's claim looks a lot like bollocks made up under pressure.

[/Not Mastermate Approved]

Well get Mastermate to approve it. All your reads are just fine and you're falling for CLASSIC RAYFROST SCUM.

When he's caught down to the wire, he SPAMS pro-town like posts like no tomorrow. If you are so easily fooled by "LYNCH MENOW ILL FLIP TOWN" and his newbie coachings of Kdca in thread, then I can't help you.


All I can do is point to my post summarizing the events of today, and wonder why no one else except Copper and PC see the same progression of events I do. I mean Fonzi/FES are tunnel brothers for life, (OH BY THEFUCKING WAY, FES SHOULD POST BEFORE NIGHT FONZI DONT YOU FUCKIN HAMMER BEFORE THEN) so I understand that. but DASPOT 180ing for no reason because of role interactions that are clearly over his head?

Whatever.

[Balam]

(Equinox)

Copper, you were doing so well by lying low before...

Yeah, DaSpotthatkillsu is town. The moon is rising on three confirmed town power roles and three probable town by process-of-elimination; the scum are now quaking in their respective QuickTopics.

How about we lynch SCUM so we don't have our heads up our ass at LyLo 4:3, which scum are ALWAYS favored in?

Fear mongering doesn't work when the situation wouldn't exactly be 4:3 LyLo.

Preview edit:

Dance, dance for my entertainment! DANCE!

[Profane Confusion]

I have a random question for Lord Fonzi, Mastermate, and DaSpot actually since I already know the answer that has been pushed by Balam and YFC already: assuming FD-scum, who could you see as FD's potential buddy(ies)? Because I personally can't see any.

Lord Fonzi wouldn't really make that much sense as an FD buddy unless he's been hyper-bussing all game, Mastermate doesn't completely make sense as an FD buddy either, Copper, eh, possibly but kinda doubted, DaSpot seems town to me, and all the other ones are ruled out by a lot of POE stuff. And I know I'm definitely not scum. So who exactly? Whereas with Balam, I could see a lot more potential for possible buddies. It's weird because even though Balam's claim makes complete sense, FD still rings very town to me. And that's really bugging me.

[Fate]

Equinox, you're such a dick as scum

[DaSpotthatkillsu]

You're "DASPOT IS FAKECLAIMIN SCUMBUDDY FOR NO REASON"

Ok, then why doesn't his claim actually INCRIMINATE anyone or anything?

Because its FUCKING REAL, just like mine.

Yours is the bullshit odd one conviennt scumbag claim.


This game's wrapped up.

we caught scum.

worst misrep ever, assuming you're attacking balam.

[Final Destination]

What are you talking about Daspot?

If your claim CATCHES scum Yos, which it doesn't. All it does is prove he CNA roleblock so its not a 100% certainty, WHY THE FUCKING LOVING HELL IS YOUR VOTEO N ME YOUR TOP FUCKING TOWN READ?