Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote AGar

Plum just explained it better than I could.

[Crazy]

Yes, this wagon is good. Seriously, guys, lynch AGar now for town-points tomorrow.

I didn't even notice what Plum just mentioned, but yeah, that Sudo vote really came out of nowhere.

I've been feeling scum vibes from AGar ever since he originally voted DH. It was an L-2 vote with no clear directive (did he want a claim? lynch? what?) and no clear case. After the wagon dissipated, he still said DH was scum, but he didn't really try to argue that point, likely to avoid a target on his back. Instead, he pursued a wagon on me mainly due to my "awkward" defense of DH. I guess back then I could

almost

understand it if he thought it was me-DH together, but now that DH has flipped town, I don't understand how me defending his wagon could possibly be anything worse than a null-tell.

AGar - I was not the only one to defend DH; I was just the first. What do you think of the rest of the players that followed my lead and hopped off the DH wagon?

[Punkin]

Hmm...Agar, I don't like that smiley, but I have mislynched townies for such things before... still, I'll look closely at him
I finished my rough notes on NS ISO, left them out for Yhill to look at. Initial impressions, He managed to avoid talking to or about most of the players in this game, of the interactions he had, I see possible distancing Crazy/ CHK/ Ran/CES/SP
Saw buddying to Plum/Cyber/Thor
I think there is one scum in each of those groupings, and one in the not mentioned list too.

[Cyberbob]

No mention of my killer smiley tell? I'm on a winner there, I'm telling you.

[Punkin]

Meh. I don't buy Plum's argument (or bob's) but half of the wagoneers are prob-town and none of them are on the suspect list so...

UNVOTE: chk
VOTE: AGar Consider this a loaner.

Going to try and read my wife's

tiny handwriting

and take my own look at the NS iso.

[LlamaFluff]

Simle tell is actually valid as a minor one.

Plums tells are very valid.

I still think something was up with the DH-Crazy movement too.

L-2.

[Cyberbob]

minor tells are all i have anymore...


Anyway, as far as chkflip goes: the thing with him and my read of him is that I'm awful at distinguishing between bad, overly earnest town and bad scum so while my head reads these cases against him and agrees that he's scummy... my gut is a lot more conflicted. I'd support his lynch because he's annoying and probably scummy, but not so much with people like AGar and sociopath running around.

[LlamaFluff]

Meh, im going to bet if AGar is scum SP is actually town here.

[Punkin]

(Sorry this took so long, I had to go pick up Dan!.)

NS plays a basic scum game and he expects to die early.

He needled Crazy, Thor, and PZ in the same way he needled our slot and Fate. Brownies for all three. Plum was the only one he explicitly called town. She probably is.

The post where he voted chk is intriguing. He made his most serious attack against now-confirmed town. Followed that with a weak attack against two players. Right there I start thinking there's a buddy in the mix. Crazy was one of the people he needled, suggesting chk-scum. Then he went on to post this...

I am happier with the chkflp wagon than the Sudo wagon.

...lumping chk with another townie among his suspects. I doubt NS attacked four townies in this post. There is very likely one scum among

Nacho

/Crazy/chkflip/

Sudo

and it is more likely chkflip.

In NS' gambit post, he discredited Ran, CES, Cyber, and

Fate

. Mention of bob was very obvious distancing and therefore fake. Townpoints for bob. Also suggests one scum among Ran/CES. He buddied to Plum, Crazy, and

Sudo

. I'm tempted to say all town, especially since the two unconfirmed got brownies earlier. If one is scum it's Crazy.

Ohey, he needled Llama too. He also seemed concerned about Llama's suspicions. Town.

SP vote looks like distancing, which disagrees with the VCA. Maybe NS has developed some game and faked it while he was going down? Food for thought.

Cocky response to Llama in #592 feels very natural. Probably scum-->town.

It seems like NS mostly ignored his buddies. This amounts to town points for Plum, Llama, and Crazy, whom he interacted with most. It nets scumpoints for AGar, Oman, and TS, whom he didn't mention. Agreeing with my wife that there is (at least) one scum among the unmentioned.

[Punkin]

Something else I noticed when I was checking the context for that iso read...

Check out the first three posts of page 15. Thor had made a post about the non-Sudo wagons that conveniently neglected NS. CES caught it and put Thor on the spot. He overreacted and cited an invalid reason for not being interested. This was immediately pointed out as invalid. Thor agreed in his next post, but he didn't move his vote.

Thor went on to lean towards a NS vote, and took a jab at him which is odd. Why would Thor do these things if he is town who doesn't suspect NS? Why not do more if he is town who does?

Once again, on D2, Thor pooh-poohed the NS wagon without good reason and then threw a vote out into left field like nothing was happening. Interestingly, that vote was on PZ, who was on the NS wagon, but the reasoning didn't have anything to do with PZ being on that wagon. Some serious cog dis there.

Altogether, Thor's behavior towards NS looks like soft distancing during repeated attempts to protect him.

[AGar]

Work sucked dick. I'll get to this one tonight.

[SocioPath]

Not sure what you mean by tasty dissonance.

The cognitive kind.
It is fading fast though.



All this Agar talk is intriguing.
The smiley tell is generally a valid one.
With Agar though, I'm not so sure.
I've been scum with him in the past, and have a slight grasp of his playstyle.
For someone such as himself, I can't see him being sad about bussing a buddy, especially not one who was such lynch-bait.
There is certainly something that I am looking for that would convince me though.

Altogether, Thor's behavior towards NS looks like soft distancing during repeated attempts to protect him.

I can see this.
He has also committed the hidden super secret SP-tell.

No mention of my killer smiley tell? I'm on a winner there, I'm telling you.

This post is out of place.
This is another good place to look.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Self-hammer usually indicates heavy scum involvement because otherwise, why not let a buddy get cred?

This was my feeling about the NS hammer. I haven't played with him that much to know he does this a lot as scum. What was the game he did it to WIFOM you?

Looking at that final vote count, SocioPath and Agar are my top picks for scum. Bob a distant 3rd.

Punkins posts today are making me feel better about that slot.

I was going to place my vote on Agar but I don't want another quick day as my other heads still aren't caught up. I'm working on a project that I hope to get done this morning, so I'll be back later to re-read NS and probably chk.

~Sotty

[SocioPath]

SocioPath and Agar are my top picks for scum.

~Sotty

As someone who was scum with both of us, as from an overseeing position in MOHO...is that what you REALLY believe?
Or are you just saying that?

[Thor665]

Check out the first three posts of page 15. Thor had made a post about the non-Sudo wagons that conveniently neglected NS. CES caught it and put Thor on the spot. He overreacted and cited an invalid reason for not being interested. This was immediately pointed out as invalid. Thor agreed in his next post, but he didn't move his vote.

I do not see;
1. An "overreaction"
2. "Convenient" neglect of NS.
3. A reason I should have moved my vote.

At least clarify 3 - considering who I was voting and what I was doing why should I have moved my vote at all?

Thor went on to lean towards a NS vote, and took a jab at him which is odd. Why would Thor do these things if he is town who doesn't suspect NS? Why not do more if he is town who does?

"Thor, why did you attack NS if you thought he was town?"
I didn't think he was town, I just didn't have a strong scum read on him and was jabbing him - as you noted.
"Then why didn't you jab him

more

, because it's scummy that you didn't."
Catch-22.

So either I'm scummy for attacking him or I'm scummy for not attacking him enough because each and every attack has to be full bore on or nothing at all?

Altogether, Thor's behavior towards NS looks like soft distancing during repeated attempts to protect him.

Soft distancing while defending him...
...
...
<-- please answer, this is a question.

With Agar though, I'm not so sure.
I've been scum with him in the past, and have a slight grasp of his playstyle.
For someone such as himself, I can't see him being sad about bussing a buddy, especially not one who was such lynch-bait.

This is good.

Altogether, Thor's behavior towards NS looks like soft distancing during repeated attempts to protect him.

I can see this.
He has also committed the hidden super secret SP-tell.

A scum tell not worth describing is a scum tell not worth anything.

[Ranmaru]

minor tells are all i have anymore...


Anyway, as far as chkflip goes: the thing with him and my read of him is that I'm awful at distinguishing between bad, overly earnest town and bad scum so while my head reads these cases against him and agrees that he's scummy... my gut is a lot more conflicted. I'd support his lynch because he's

annoying

and

probably

scummy, but not so much with people like AGar and sociopath running around.

First bold, is stupid. Shouldn't lynch someone just because they are annoying. (Why don't you explain how Chk is annoying to you so he can stop). Second bold, how is he 'probably' scummy?

[Ranmaru]

unvote
Vote AGar

Plum just explained it better than I could.

I'd still like for you to explain it somehow. Tell me in one sentence why you are feeling an Agar lynch toDay.

[Twilight Sparkle]

SocioPath and Agar are my top picks for scum.

~Sotty

As someone who was scum with both of us, as from an overseeing position in MOHO...is that what you REALLY believe?
Or are you just saying that?

I think I know what you're getting at here and yes it is what I believe. I am more convinced about AGar than you however. I just feel like you are coasting in a very similar manner that you did in MoHo, but I think I mentioned that already.

= = = = = =

Chkflip re-read doesn't make me want to vote there. So I had a look at Punkin's points on him to see if I could get my head around it. I don't agree that being over defensive is a scum tell at all. I also don't see how he is misrepping Sudo in that link. In fact a lot of players seemed to think it was a catch. LF, AGar, Oman, CES all voted after chk's post that seems to suggest that they either thought it was a good point or Sudo was a good wagon and Chk's point was a misrepp because they didn't mention it.

Of course I had also noticed that you (Punkin) had voted for Sudo, right after chk's vote actually. At first I thought I had caught you as scum trying to have it both ways (voting Sudo/calling a misrep). I had typed this all out complete with a vote for you. Then I waded further into your ISO to see you explain why you did that with an attempt to manipulate the vote counts.

I'm impressed if a little annoyed that my eureka! moment was busted.

Still it got me looking over that whole interaction and I agree with Plum that AGar comes out of that wagon looking horrible with how quickly he shifted from NS to Sudo. Oman is another poor looking vote. He really hasn't been present in this game at all and I wouldn't be surprised if he flipped scum as a result. As for the others, Llama was following his suspicions as best as I can tell and CES was wagoning which is what he does, so null.

I'm waiting on AGar's content post of the day but I am feeling increasingly happy about putting our vote on him sooner rather than later.

An AGar scum flip points towards Cyberbob town as well, so I am dropping him down my list.

~Sotty

[Ranmaru]

Also, dissenter wagons are spread out versus NS, which tells me no more than two scum among Crazy/PZ/CES/AGar; maybe only one. This also tells us that there is no more than one scum each among Ran/Llama, same with TS/Oman, and Plum gains town cred.

Not much to note here, except as a point of comparison for the next two VCs. Ran pointlessly added pressure to the Nacho wagon which could go either way at this juncture, but see below.

We added pressure to the NS wagon and there was very little movement in response. Tells me scum was already entrenched on Sudo (see below). Ran looks like Goldilocks trying to find the right bed; scumpoints.

Town was sealed into this and pulling it off was almost a technicality for scum. Our slot was willing to hammer and so was Fate, which means decent chance of one scum among Ran/SP with the former more likely than the latter. Also note that Sudo was "just right" for Ranilocks.

I thought it was odd people were giving up on DH so quickly, I tried to add pressure to it...

I saw Sudo post else where and I spent time in trying to get his thoughts. You noting the same thing twice or something? I only voted Sudo once.

Also, I didn't understand what NS was trying to say to me, I thought he was just joking.

[LlamaFluff]

I'd still like for you to explain it somehow. Tell me in one sentence why you are feeling an Agar lynch toDay.

Not sure if I have time to. Have to go take a final in about 20 minutes.

Why do you feel we shouldnt lynch him?

[SocioPath]

I just feel like you are coasting in a very similar manner that you did in MoHo, but I think I mentioned that already.
~Sotty

As I much as I enjoy talking about myself when it comes to playstyle, I'll keep this one concise:
Its a large-tell, not a scum-tell.

I just find it odd that you mention coasting, while "ignoring" hito's and Mina's.

How is Mina's scum game?

How is hito's?

I know yours is strong.
So you could probably be a good judge on the other two of you.

[Punkin]

This was my feeling about the NS hammer. I haven't played with him that much to know he does this a lot as scum. What was the game he did it to WIFOM you?

It's easier to find the link if I log in under my main. Will post it in a minute.

I was going to place my vote on Agar but I don't want another quick day as my other heads still aren't caught up.

You can have my seat if you like.

UNVOTE: AGar
VOTE: chkflip

1. An "overreaction"
2. "Convenient" neglect of NS.
3. A reason I should have moved my vote.

1. OMG NS is @ L-2! The sort of frantic miscount I most often see from townies when the wagon is on themselves.
   
2. #349 cites a lack of good alternatives as your reason for parking on Sudo, mentions the "big wagons" by name and doesn't mention NS. (looking back at the VC I guess you did elude to his wagon, so meh)
   
3. Your reason for not moving was largely the lack of acceptable alternatives and was proven false.

So either I'm scummy for attacking him or I'm scummy for not attacking him enough because each and every attack has to be full bore on or nothing at all?

You are scummy for attacking him in a way that does not further a town wincon but which furthers a scum wincon, especially now that we know that he was scum.

Thor wrote:

<-- please answer, this is a question.

<-- This is my answer.

Still it got me looking over that whole interaction and I agree with Plum that AGar comes out of that wagon looking horrible with how quickly he shifted from NS to Sudo. Oman is another poor looking vote.

Two names from the NS-ignored-them list. Hmmm... But yeah, Cyberbob is town.

You noting the same thing twice or something?

The thing I pointed out with the Ranilocks (Goldimaru?) reference only got you one black mark. Bombast aside, it refers to your fickle vote finally settling on the lead mislynch. Stated more than once because the pattern appeared across multiple VCs.

[Punkin]

@TS:

Here's a link to the relevant VCA from that game. Scroll down to the last VC. Fate, who is the only unconfirmed scum player on the wagon, was also the only scum. NS

did not

give his second buddy (Andrius) the opportunity to hammer for cred.

Overall, that game would be good for meta homework because it included Fate, NS, AGar, and myself.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I just find it odd that you mention coasting, while "ignoring" hito's and Mina's.

How is Mina's scum game?

How is hito's?

I know yours is strong.
So you could probably be a good judge on the other two of you.

I actually haven't played with either when they have been scum so I can't comment on that.

There is a reason I am taking it upon myself to spearhead this game but it involves ongoing games so I can't explain yet. I wouldn't even say either of those two are coasting seeing as we are one player slot and as long as the slot is producing then things are good. I know Hito is some what busy with school and approached me to hydra this game with him and Mina as a favour to Singersinger. I have faith my other heads will eventually catch up, until then I will keep posting.

@TS:

Here's a link to the relevant VCA from that game. Scroll down to the last VC. Fate, who is the only unconfirmed scum player on the wagon, was also the only scum. NS

did not

give his second buddy (Andrius) the opportunity to hammer for cred.

Overall, that game would be good for meta homework because it included Fate, NS, AGar, and myself.

Thanks for the link, I will give it a look over the weekend. Also:

Vote: AGar

~Sotty

[Thor665]

I was going to place my vote on Agar but I don't want another quick day as my other heads still aren't caught up.

You can have my seat if you like.

UNVOTE: AGar
VOTE: chkflip

So...you don't find him as scummy anymore, or what?

And to continue our debate;