Necessary Evil wrote:I'm just going to keep posting this until people start answering it:
How could TS survive today without claiming a guilty?
The fact that I've posted this question twice and nobody has answered it is proof that none of you are thinking this through. Oh, and what is this case on me that I can't seem to find anywhere? You're all just sheeping the scummiest player. Awful, awful play from all of you. You should be ashamed!
Duplicity wrote:
Yes, I do indeed believe NE's defence has been suspicious, I stated so earlier.
Hmm okay.
Anyway I feel this day has went on long enough I don't think we're going to get a lot more out of it without a flip.
VOTE: Necessary Evil
"
And before anyone bitches about me highlighting PoD's 437 when I replaced in and called everyone on my wagon communists, I remind you that communism is not alignment-indicative
And before anyone bitches about me highlighting PoD's 437 when I replaced in and called everyone on my wagon communists, I remind you that communism is not alignment-indicative
farside wrote:Ohhh i just skimmed a bit on something but did Rhinox just say he thought TS was town at the end of day 1?<snip>
*note research Rhinox next
I'll save you the trouble. I said I was *leaning* town on twisted at the end of D1, as the quote you found says. I believe my comments in these post AFTER TS's claim portray's that sentiment. These posts also clearly show I did not think of TS as obvscum at the end of the day as NE is now claiming. Thats a clear misrep on his part with the only purpose to try to discredit me. Makes me even more confident my vote is in the right spot.
rhinox wrote:TBH, I wasn't expecting twisted to claim 1-shot cop. I'm going to have to think about this now. Some of his posts make sense with the claim.
unvote
I think its about time we find out for sure if Javert is what he says he is. Ender and TS should be off limits. Anyone else fair game. Daykill go!
rhinox wrote:
Juls wrote:
farside wrote:Honestly I can't see 2 one shot cops. I've never heard of it. Juls broken down the possibilities, but I wonder do you (Juls) have a view on any one of those possibilities between the two players?
I would guess the least likely is TS-Mafia/ender-town. And most probable is either TS-Town/Ender-Town or TS-Town/Ender-Mafia. The latter only because I can't get past ender saying his "crumb" was an accident.
I'm actually leaning the other way around or both town.
rhinox wrote:Twisted - gets a pass today.
rhinox wrote:Something is going on though: 2 one-shot cops + 2 masons + 1 shot day vig equals a hell of a lot of town power. Hell, with the cops and the masons that could be 6 confirmed innocents on day 2. That would be pretty much game breaking. Twisted can plausibly be town is scum group have GF and RB. But if both cops and the mason claims are all town, then Javert is looking an awful lot like a scum 1 shot vig to counter all the confirmed innos.
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farside wrote:Rhinox: I asked because you stated you believed with the PR's from day 1 that scum would have a RB. I figured that TS with his day 1 constant point against NE that if NE was scum why would scum take a chance and not RB him in the first place?
Its always been my belief that cops aren't supposed to target who they already think is scum, they just get those players lynched and investigate their null reads.
Regardless, it did make me curious for TS to not claim to be roleblocked today, whether he's town or scum. But I don't think not being RBed should be a reason to call TS scum.
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NE wrote:How could TS survive today without claiming a guilty?
ummm...the same way he didn't get lynched yesterday maybe...?
I want to revisit why it doesn't make sense for TS scum to try this gambit. The argument is, if scum force a mislynch today, then we would be in perpetual mylo for the rest of the game. This is IMO short sighted.
If TS is scum and this is a gambit, then TS has a 50% chance of not only getting lynched anyways, but also pretty much clearing a townie if his gambit fails (not a pro-town townie either, forcing a suboptimal nk). And a second scum could be lynched the second day. Even if his gambit succeeds, there is a 100% chance of lynching scum the next day.
Consider no gambit: there is some non-zero percentage that no scum will die in 2 days - that is to say, we're not guaranteed to even lynch a single scum over the next 2 days.
Actually, maybe it'll make more sense if I just give you the numbers...
Spoiler: numbers, numbers, numbers
1) If this is TS scum pulling a gambit, then...
Chance of lynching exactly 0 scum in 2 days: 0% (100% chance of lynching at least 1 scum in 2 days)
Chance of lynching exactly 1 scum in 2 days: 83% (lynching scum today random town lynch tomorrow OR town today 100% scum lynch tomorrow)
Chance of lynching exactly 2 scum in 2 days: 17% (assuming random lynch tomorrow of living players 6 town 2 scum)
2) If TS is scum and he would have say claimed to be roleblocked, then...
Chance of lynching exaxtly 0 scum in 2 days: 44% (assuming random lynching)
Chance of lynching exactly 1 scum in 2 days: 46% (assuming random lynching)
Chance of lynching exactly 2 scum in 2 days: 10% (assuming random lynching)
So, I know we're not random lynching, but gambiting is clearly a bad play here for scum if we were. But based on factors we don't yet know, we may be more or less likely than random to hit scum.
3) Lets suppose TS is scum and scum decided overnight that TS was going to be lynched regardless today...
Chance of lynching exactly 0 scum in 2 days: 0% (100% chance of lynching scum today)
Chance of lynching exactly 1 scum in 2 days: 67% (100% chance of lynching scum today and random 67% chance of lynching town tomorrow)
Chance of lynching exactly 2 scum in 2 days: 33% (100% chance of lynching scum today and random 33% chance of lynching scum tomorrow)
OK, so if scum assumed that TS-scum was 100% going to be lynched today without gambitting, than they improved themselves a little bit having TS claim he had a guilty. But just as we're not random lynching, there was not a 100% chance that TS was going to be lynched today. So the actual odds for no gambit are somewhere in between 2) and 3).
4) Also consider, if scum were 100% sure that TS were going to be lynched regardless, then they lose some of the benefit, because then they wouldn't be able to assume NE vs. TS would be a 50/50 - they would have to also assume that the town would be suspicious of the guilty result and be somewhat higher than 50% more likely to lynch TS vs. NE. Worst case, the scum could assume the gambit completely fails and TS is lynched with 100% certainty today, which means these numbers would look exactly the same as 3) anyways.
TL;DR: So, let me tie all this together. Over the next 2 days, here are the range of probabilities for lynching exactly 0, 1, or 2 scum for gambit or no gambit and assuming TS scum.
Gambit:
0 scum: 0%
1 scum: 67% to 83%
2 scum: 17% to 33%
No gambit (claim to be RBed):
0 scum: 0% to 44%
1 scum: 46% to 67%
2 scum: 10% to 33%
When I look at these numbers, they tell me the same conclusion I already stated. If TS were scum, there is no benefit to claiming a guilty. Furthermore, its wifom proof. Lets suppose scum figured all this out and did it anyways knowing we'd lynch town today. We still 100% lynch scum tomorrow. Look at the numbers above: its a 67-83% chance by the end of the day tomorrow we're going to be in mylo anyways. I'm not saying that makes it ok to lynch town first - I want that 17-33% chance of lynching 2 scum - just that pointing out we will be in mylo if we lynch town first isn't a strong point in favor of TS-scum doing this gambit because the odds favor us being in mylo even if we hit scum first anyways.
OK, so now for the real tl;dr: I still stand by the fact that scum-TS and the scum team don't benefit from having TS claim a guilty on NE-town today. (small benefit under some assumption, huge misplay under others). Therefore, I believe the more likely scenario is that TS is telling the truth and NE is scum. If I'm being duped, I'm still happy to take the 1 for 1 because if this is a gambit we're likely to end up in mylo after 2 more lynches anyways even if scum is lynched today (regardless of who the scum is). Compared to had we not had a guilty today, under random lynching assumptions we'd have been even more likely to be in mylo or worse after 2 lynches (we would probably be stuck no lynching tomorrow to get to full lylo, due to the misvig - another reason why this would not be an optimal gambit for scum to try).
-----------------------------------------
Thinking about all this, it makes me more suspicious that javert could be scum. IMO, he really used his daykill in an antitown way - first claiming on D1, and then killing a claimed PR. It basically turns the game back into the old style 12p mini's which were scum favored, but even more scum favored with the scum daykill considering that javert could eliminate a very pro-town player or PR. Then it would make sense that town has the masons and 2 cops and scum with no RB - frankly, that would make the game seem pretty balanced. Swingy as hell, but balanced. I'm basically just throwing this out here now and tucking it under my tin-foil hat. But this is one theory that doesn't really take a huge stretch to believe.
Or, maybe I'm just upset because, if javert is town and still had his daykill today, we'd be able to use his daykill first on the one of TS or NE who we most think is scum, and mop up the other with the lynch if we're wrong (or lynch scum if the daykill hits scum).
Also, no one hammer, G has promised me a discussion about our reads in this game later today
There are three ways of dealing with difference: domination, compromise, and integration. By domination only one side gets what it wants; by compromise neither side gets what it wants; by integration we find a way by which both sides may get what they wish. - Mary Parker Follett.
Ok. I think NE is scum. He's too aggressive and stuff. Er... Your role makes sense with the other roles (2 1-Shot cops instead of 1 normal cop) and with your posts. I'm not voting because that'd be a hammer, and Dupicity has requested for no one to hammer yet.
I just did some re-reading waiting for G to message me, here's some observations/questioons I have:
1. Rhinox, what made you change your mind about the point you brought up here?
2. If Maxous is mafia then Prosarus is town due to Prosarus attitude in this post.
3. If this is a buss and both Twisted and NE are scum then Maxous is town for this post.
4. This post by farside seems forced and over the top.
5. The entire reasoning behind Farsides vote on Me=Weird was because she didn't like his interaction with Pros, she stated so here. This is: 1) A horrible reason to suspect someone. 2) Completly untrue, since it was EA that was pushing against Pros for this reasoning.
6. EA, what changed your mind about NE exactly? Here you state you believe his defence is that of a townie.
7. Twisted, what do you mean by we're in this post.
There are three ways of dealing with difference: domination, compromise, and integration. By domination only one side gets what it wants; by compromise neither side gets what it wants; by integration we find a way by which both sides may get what they wish. - Mary Parker Follett.
Twistedspoon wrote:No one can deny that even without my investigation, NE merited a lynch
Based on what? The awful reasoning MW gave for his vote that you sheeped? Does anybody have any reason to think I'm scum besides Twistedscum's result? You might want to push people to give their resons so you can find the scum that are on my wagon. It's going to be hell to figure that out without more detailed explanations.
Rhinox wrote:These posts also clearly show I did not think of TS as obvscum at the end of the day as NE is now claiming. Thats a clear misrep on his part with the only purpose to try to discredit me. Makes me even more confident my vote is in the right spot.
I wasn't misrepping you. I was pointing out that you were very sure that TS was scum, even to the point that you didn't care about his claim, and now you're very sure that he is town based solely on his claim despite the evidence that he is faking it.
Rhinox wrote:ummm...the same way he didn't get lynched yesterday maybe...?
This is an awful answer. The situations are completely different. A one-shot cop claim isn't going to buy him a free night like it bought him yesterday. You're not really considering the importance of this question. Look at TS's play today. He claims a guilty on me, waffles on it by suggesting that there might be a framer or he might be insane despite the fact that there is no evidence of either of these things, and does nothing for the rest of the day but push for my lynch. These facts suggest a guilty gambit. We have to consider what other strategy he could pursue as scum. If there are no sensible alternative, then we must seriously consider the idea that he is gambiting. We haven't even scratched the surface of the first step there so now we're just rushing to lynch the guilty target.
Rhinox wrote:I want to revisit why it doesn't make sense for TS scum to try this gambit. The argument is, if scum force a mislynch today, then we would be in perpetual mylo for the rest of the game. This is IMO short sighted.
If TS is scum and this is a gambit, then TS has a 50% chance of not only getting lynched anyways, but also pretty much clearing a townie if his gambit fails (not a pro-town townie either, forcing a suboptimal nk). And a second scum could be lynched the second day. Even if his gambit succeeds, there is a 100% chance of lynching scum the next day.
The fact that you say TS has a 50% chance of getting lynched after I flip town tells me that you're not prepared for when I flip town. It suggests that his strategy of hinting that his "investigation" might not be accurate is working. We need to discuss this fully instead of jumping to the conclusion that I must be scum.
Your suggestion that I will be nightkilled after TS is lynched is WIFOM. Maxous's and Duplicity's idea that this is a bus is proof of that. You can't assume that scum can kill me when leaving me alive could cause the town to think that I'm scum.
Rhinox wrote:OK, so now for the real tl;dr: I still stand by the fact that scum-TS and the scum team don't benefit from having TS claim a guilty on NE-town today. (small benefit under some assumption, huge misplay under others). Therefore, I believe the more likely scenario is that TS is telling the truth and NE is scum. If I'm being duped, I'm still happy to take the 1 for 1 because if this is a gambit we're likely to end up in mylo after 2 more lynches anyways even if scum is lynched today (regardless of who the scum is). Compared to had we not had a guilty today, under random lynching assumptions we'd have been even more likely to be in mylo or worse after 2 lynches (we would probably be stuck no lynching tomorrow to get to full lylo, due to the misvig - another reason why this would not be an optimal gambit for scum to try).
How can you be happy with lynching me when you have no plan or even basic discussion for when I flip town?
Prosaurus wrote:Ok. I think NE is scum. He's too aggressive and stuff. Er... Your role makes sense with the other roles (2 1-Shot cops instead of 1 normal cop) and with your posts. I'm not voting because that'd be a hammer, and Dupicity has requested for no one to hammer yet.
How can you find who the scum are on my wagon when people are using such poor reasoning against me and getting away with it?
Just caught up with thread. NE, if you're really town you need to be giving the thread your reads right now. We've decided that although we think something is seriously odd with the setup if TS is being truthful, your overall play is a scum-read for us and that means we're willing to hammer. If you really are town, post something useful instead of complaining.
-gorilla
There are three ways of dealing with difference: domination, compromise, and integration. By domination only one side gets what it wants; by compromise neither side gets what it wants; by integration we find a way by which both sides may get what they wish. - Mary Parker Follett.
@NE I'm not voting for you yet. That post was just to say
something
as TS said I should. Anyway, I think either you or TS is scum, you're scummier and seem desperate to get someone to agree with you and remove their vote.
This may be my last post before I turn everything off. Hopefully the mod finds a replacement and you won't have to deal with an empty slot regardless...
Duplicity wrote:6. EA, what changed your mind about NE exactly? Here you state you believe his defence is that of a townie.
The timing of TS's softclaim making it unlikely that he's lying was the first thing
then his scummy defense today sealed the deal
Duplicity wrote:Just caught up with thread. NE, if you're really town you need to be giving the thread your reads right now. We've decided that although we think something is seriously odd with the setup if TS is being truthful, your overall play is a scum-read for us and that means we're willing to hammer. If you really are town, post something useful instead of complaining.
-gorilla
Duplicity wrote:we're willing to hammer
Duplicity wrote:(no actual hammer)
WATCH THE SCUMMY SCUM STALL
Prosaurus wrote:@NE I'm not voting for you yet. That post was just to say
something
as TS said I should. Anyway, I think either you or TS is scum, you're scummier and seem desperate to get someone to agree with you and remove their vote.
Duplicity wrote:1. Rhinox, what made you change your mind about the point you brought up here?
I didn't change my mind. That post should not have been read that I thought TS was definitely scum, just that something doesn't seem right about the setup - seems like an OP town. If you read my last post, I'm currently entertaining a theory that Javert is a scum daykill. Or maybe scum have lots of power I don't know about that justifies the town's power.
@NE:
-You clearly were misrepping me because you ignored all my comments on D1 AFTER TS claimed. You'll note that I was ok with your lynch D1 and not wanting to lynch TS.
-You're misrepping TS by saying he was waffling - he wasn't.
-He's a cop with a guilty on you, of course he's going to push for your lynch.
-I didn't say TS had a 50% chance of getting lynched if you flip town, I said that today, IF he is gambitting, then he is engaging you in a 50/50 scenario and has a 50% chance of getting lynched TODAY. If somehow you do flip town, then TS is 100% getting lynched tomorrow. I made those points very clear. You either can not comprehend english, or you are misrepping me again to continue pushing your bullshit RHINOX ISN'T THINKING THIS THROUGH!!! point. I think my last post shows I have thought it completely through and am ready to see you flip scum officially.
-Whether or not you would be nked in the hypothetical scenario where TS is lynched scum today is irrelevant, but you would be confirmed town IMO just as TS will be confirmed town when you flip scum. The idea presented that this is a bus is scummy. There is absolutely no justification for that suspicion, only puts doubts in townies' heads about the confirmed town status of TS after you flip scum.
-I'm happy lynching you because I have thought it through and think you're scum. I made it clear that if you're not scum, there's virtually no chance TS is not getting lynched tomorrow. I've made it clear that my voted is on the player of the 2 I believe is more likely to be scum and explained why, but that if I'm wrong and this is a TS scum gambit, then I'm still good with 1 for 1 because we're still in a better position IMO than if TS-hyposcum wouldn't have claimed a guilty today and scum are still in a worse position IMO.
I don't have any problem with a hammer anytime now.
Are mafia day-vig's even allowed in normal games? It seems like a mechanic that would'nt be
normal.
"
And before anyone bitches about me highlighting PoD's 437 when I replaced in and called everyone on my wagon communists, I remind you that communism is not alignment-indicative
You guys just picked me up and ripped me in half.
If I don't hammer, I could be called scum for not lynching or stalling.
If I do hammer, I could be called scum for not having an opinion of my own and using the excuse of "They told me to".
Don't know whether to hammer now or not. If I hammer, I'll do it tomorrow.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}